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Abstract Background Physical activity (PA) and diet quality have each been shown to be inversely associated with mortality but their combined impact on longevity has been less explored, particularly when considering their changes over time. This study aimed to examine the separate and combined associations of PA, diet quality and their changes over time with mortality outcomes. Methods A prospective cohort study was performed on 9349 adults aged 40 to 79 years from the population-based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer in Norfolk Study, with repeated measurements of PA and diet (from 1993 till 2004) and subsequent follow-up till 2022 (median follow-up 18.8 years). Validated questionnaires were used to derive physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) as a proxy of total PA and adherence to the Mediterranean diet score (MDS, range 0–15 points) as an indicator of overall diet quality, and their changes over time (∆PAEE and ∆MDS). Cox regression models adjusted for potential confounders and mediators were used to estimate hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs. Results Over 149,681 person-years of follow-up, there were 3534 deaths. In adjusted models, for each 1-SD difference in baseline PAEE (4.64 kJ/kg/day), ∆PAEE (0.65 kJ/kg/day per year), baseline MDS (1.30 points) and ∆MDS (0.32 points per year), HRs (95% CI) for all-cause mortality were 0.90 (0.86 to 0.94), 0.89 (0.85 to 0.93), 0.95 (0.91 to 0.99) and 0.93 (0.90 to 0.97), respectively. Compared with participants with sustained low PAEE (

Abstract Effective prevention strategies for post-COVID complications are crucial for patients, clinicians, and policy makers to mitigate their cumulative burden. This study evaluated the association of modifiable lifestyle factors (smoking, alcohol intake, BMI, physical activity, sedentary time, sleep duration, and dietary habits) with COVID-19 multisystem sequelae, death, and hospitalization in the UK Biobank cohort (n = 68,896). A favorable lifestyle (6-10 healthy factors; 46.4%) was associated with a 36% lower risk of multisystem sequelae (HR, 0.64; 95% CI, 0.58-0.69; ARR at 210 days, 7.08%; 95% CI, 5.98-8.09) compared to an unfavorable lifestyle (0-4 factors; 12.3%). Risk reductions spanned all 10 organ systems, including cardiovascular, coagulation, metabolic, gastrointestinal, kidney, mental health, musculoskeletal, respiratory disorders, and fatigue. This beneficial effect was largely attributable to direct lifestyle impacts independent of corresponding pre-infection comorbidities (71% for any sequelae). A favorable lifestyle was also related to the risk of post-COVID death (HR 0.59, 0.52-0.66) and hospitalization (HR 0.78, 0.73-0.84). These associations persisted across acute and post-acute infection phases, irrespective of hospitalization status, vaccination, or SARS-CoV-2 variant. These findings underscore the clinical and public health importance of adhering to a healthy lifestyle in mitigating long-term COVID-19 adverse impacts and enhancing future pandemic preparedness.

Summary: Background: It is unknown whether the association between ultra-processed food (UPF) intake and type 2 diabetes mellitus differs from other degrees of food processing. We examined the association between degree of food processing and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Methods: This was a prospective cohort analysis of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC). Dietary intake was assessed at baseline using dietary questionnaires and classified according to the Nova classification into unprocessed/minimally processed food (MPF), processed culinary ingredients (PCI), processed food (PF) and UPF. Type 2 diabetes mellitus cases were verified through multiple methods. Cox regression and statistical substitution analysis was used to estimate associations between MPF + PCI, PF and UPF intake and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. To investigate heterogeneity in the association between UPF and incident type 2 diabetes mellitus, UPF sub-group analysis was conducted. Different reference groups were used in each analysis. Findings: Over an average 10.9 years follow-up of 311,892 individuals, 14,236 type 2 diabetes mellitus cases were identified. Each 10% increment of total daily food intake from UPF (%g/day) was associated with 17% (95% confidence interval (95%CI): 1.14–1.19) higher incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Each 10% increment in MPF + PCI or PF intake was associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (MPF + PCI hazard ratio: 0.94 (95%CI: 0.92–0.96); PF hazard ratio: 0.92 (95%CI: 0.89–0.95)). Replacing UPF with MPF + PCI or PF was associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. However, heterogeneity was observed across UPF sub-groups, with breads, biscuits and breakfast cereals, sweets and desserts, and plant-based alternatives associated with lower incident type 2 diabetes mellitus. Interpretation: These findings support recommendations to focus on reducing intake of specific UPF for lowering type 2 diabetes mellitus risk. Funding: International Agency for Research on Cancer.

Summary: Background: Variation in thyroid function parameters within the normal range has been observationally associated with adverse health outcomes. Whether those associations reflect causal effects is largely unknown. Methods: We systematically tested associations between genetic differences in thyrotropin (TSH) and free thyroxine (FT4) within the normal range and more than 1100 diseases and more than 6000 molecular traits (metabolites and proteins) in three large population-based cohorts. This was performed by combining individual and summary level genetic data and using polygenic scores and Mendelian randomization (MR) methods. We performed a phenome-wide MR study in the OpenGWAS database covering thousands of complex phenotypes and diseases. Findings: Genetically predicted TSH or FT4 levels within the normal range were predominately associated with thyroid-related outcomes, like goitre. The few extra-thyroidal outcomes that were found to be associated with genetic liability towards high but normal TSH levels included atrial fibrillation (odds ratio = 0.92, p-value = 2.13 × 10−3), thyroid cancer (odds ratio = 0.57, p-value = 2.97 × 10−4), and specific biomarkers, such as sex hormone binding globulin (β = −0.046, p-value = 1.33 × 10−6) and total cholesterol (β = 0.027, p-value = 5.80 × 10−3). Interpretation: In contrast to previous studies that have described the association with thyroid hormone levels and disease outcomes, our genetic approach finds little evidence of an association between genetic differences in thyroid function within the normal range and non-thyroidal phenotypes. The association described in previous studies may be explained by reverse causation and confounding. Funding: This research was funded by the Swiss National Science Foundation (P1BEP3_200041). The Fenland study (DOI 10.22025/2017.10.101.00001) is funded by the Medical Research Council (MC_UU_12015/1, MC_PC_13046 and MC_UU_00006/1). The EPIC-Norfolk study (DOI 10.22025/2019.10.105.00004) has received funding from the Medical Research Council (MR/N003284/1, MC-UU_12015/1, MC_PC_13048 and MC_UU_00006/1).

Abstract There is currently no medical therapy to prevent calcific aortic valve stenosis (CAVS). Multi-omics approaches could lead to the identification of novel molecular targets. Here, we perform a genome-wide association study (GWAS) meta-analysis including 14,819 cases among 941,863 participants of European ancestry. We report 32 genomic loci, among which 20 are novel. RNA sequencing of 500 human aortic valves highlights an enrichment in expression regulation at these loci and prioritizes candidate causal genes. Homozygous genotype for a risk variant near TWIST1, a gene involved in endothelial-mesenchymal transition, has a profound impact on aortic valve transcriptomics. We identify five genes outside of GWAS loci by combining a transcriptome-wide association study, colocalization, and Mendelian randomization analyses. Using cross-phenotype and phenome-wide approaches, we highlight the role of circulating lipoproteins, blood pressure and inflammation in the disease process. Our findings pave the way for the development of novel therapies for CAVS.

Abstract To date only a fraction of the genetic footprint of thyroid function has been clarified. We report a genome-wide association study meta-analysis of thyroid function in up to 271,040 individuals of European ancestry, including reference range thyrotropin (TSH), free thyroxine (FT4), free and total triiodothyronine (T3), proxies for metabolism (T3/FT4 ratio) as well as dichotomized high and low TSH levels. We revealed 259 independent significant associations for TSH (61% novel), 85 for FT4 (67% novel), and 62 novel signals for the T3 related traits. The loci explained 14.1%, 6.0%, 9.5% and 1.1% of the total variation in TSH, FT4, total T3 and free T3 concentrations, respectively. Genetic correlations indicate that TSH associated loci reflect the thyroid function determined by free T3, whereas the FT4 associations represent the thyroid hormone metabolism. Polygenic risk score and Mendelian randomization analyses showed the effects of genetically determined variation in thyroid function on various clinical outcomes, including cardiovascular risk factors and diseases, autoimmune diseases, and cancer. In conclusion, our results improve the understanding of thyroid hormone physiology and highlight the pleiotropic effects of thyroid function on various diseases.

Abstract Current understanding of determinants for COVID-19-related cardiovascular and thromboembolic (CVE) complications primarily covers clinical aspects with limited knowledge on genetics and lifestyles. Here, we analysed a prospective cohort of 106,005 participants from UK Biobank with confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection. We show that higher polygenic risk scores, indicating individual’s hereditary risk, were linearly associated with increased risks of post-COVID-19 atrial fibrillation (adjusted HR 1.52 [95% CI 1.44 to 1.60] per standard deviation increase), coronary artery disease (1.57 [1.46 to 1.69]), venous thromboembolism (1.33 [1.18 to 1.50]), and ischaemic stroke (1.27 [1.05 to 1.55]). These genetic associations are robust across genders, key clinical subgroups, and during Omicron waves. However, a prior composite healthier lifestyle was consistently associated with a reduction in all outcomes. Our findings highlight that host genetics and lifestyle independently affect the occurrence of CVE complications in the acute infection phrase, which can guide tailored management of COVID-19 patients and inform population lifestyle interventions to offset the elevated cardiovascular burden post-pandemic.

Abstract Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development.

Abstract Higher cardiorespiratory fitness is associated with lower risk of type 2 diabetes. However, the causality of this relationship and the biological mechanisms that underlie it are unclear. Here, we examine genetic determinants of cardiorespiratory fitness in 450k European-ancestry individuals in UK Biobank, by leveraging the genetic overlap between fitness measured by an exercise test and resting heart rate. We identified 160 fitness-associated loci which we validated in an independent cohort, the Fenland study. Gene-based analyses prioritised candidate genes, such as CACNA1C, SCN10A, MYH11 and MYH6, that are enriched in biological processes related to cardiac muscle development and muscle contractility. In a Mendelian Randomisation framework, we demonstrate that higher genetically predicted fitness is causally associated with lower risk of type 2 diabetes independent of adiposity. Integration with proteomic data identified N-terminal pro B-type natriuretic peptide, hepatocyte growth factor-like protein and sex hormone-binding globulin as potential mediators of this relationship. Collectively, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms underpinning cardiorespiratory fitness and highlight the importance of improving fitness for diabetes prevention.

Abstract Early detection of highly infectious respiratory diseases, such as COVID-19, can help curb their transmission. Consequently, there is demand for easy-to-use population-based screening tools, such as mobile health applications. Here, we describe a proof-of-concept development of a machine learning classifier for the prediction of a symptomatic respiratory disease, such as COVID-19, using smartphone-collected vital sign measurements. The Fenland App study followed 2199 UK participants that provided measurements of blood oxygen saturation, body temperature, and resting heart rate. Total of 77 positive and 6339 negative SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests were recorded. An optimal classifier to identify these positive cases was selected using an automated hyperparameter optimisation. The optimised model achieved an ROC AUC of 0.695 ± 0.045. The data collection window for determining each participant’s vital sign baseline was increased from 4 to 8 or 12 weeks with no significant difference in model performance (F(2) = 0.80, p = 0.472). We demonstrate that 4 weeks of intermittently collected vital sign measurements could be used to predict SARS-CoV-2 PCR positivity, with applicability to other diseases causing similar vital sign changes. This is the first example of an accessible, smartphone-based remote monitoring tool deployable in a public health setting to screen for potential infections.

Our understanding of the genetic contribution to human adiposity is incomplete, as few studies measure adiposity directly. Here, the authors impute whole-body imaging adiposity phenotypes in large biobanks, enhancing their power to discover genes driving human adiposity, and further investigate one such gene using a mouse model.

Background ANGPTL3 (angiopoietin‐like protein 3) is an acknowledged crucial regulator of lipid metabolism by virtue of its inhibitory effect on lipoprotein lipase and endothelial lipase. It is currently unknown whether and to which lipoproteins ANGPTL3 is bound and whether the ability of ANGPTL3 to inhibit lipase activity is affected by binding to lipoproteins. Methods and Results Incubation of ultracentrifugation‐isolated low‐density lipoprotein (LDL) and high‐density lipoprotein (HDL) fractions from healthy volunteers with recombinant ANGPTL3 revealed that ANGPTL3 associates with both HDL and LDL particles ex vivo. Plasma from healthy volunteers and a patient deficient in HDL was fractionated by fast protein liquid chromatography, and ANGPTL3 distribution among lipoprotein fractions was measured. In healthy volunteers, ≈75% of lipoprotein‐associated ANGPTL3 resides in HDL fractions, whereas ANGPTL3 was largely bound to LDL in the patient deficient in HDL. ANGPTL3 activity was studied by measuring lipolysis and uptake of 3H‐trioleate by brown adipocyte T37i cells. Unbound ANGPTL3 did not suppress lipase activity, but when given with HDL or LDL, ANGPTL3 suppressed lipase activity by 21.4±16.4% (P=0.03) and 25.4±8.2% (P=0.006), respectively. Finally, in a subset of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer) Norfolk study, plasma HDL cholesterol and amount of large HDL particles were both positively associated with plasma ANGPTL3 concentrations. Moreover, plasma ANGPTL3 concentrations showed a positive association with incident coronary artery disease (odds ratio, 1.25 [95% CI, 1.01–1.55], P=0.04). Conclusions Although ANGPTL3 preferentially resides on HDL, its activity was highest once bound to LDL particles.

Abstract Background Genetic variants within nearly 1000 loci are known to contribute to modulation of blood lipid levels. However, the biological pathways underlying these associations are frequently unknown, limiting understanding of these findings and hindering downstream translational efforts such as drug target discovery. Results To expand our understanding of the underlying biological pathways and mechanisms controlling blood lipid levels, we leverage a large multi-ancestry meta-analysis (N = 1,654,960) of blood lipids to prioritize putative causal genes for 2286 lipid associations using six gene prediction approaches. Using phenome-wide association (PheWAS) scans, we identify relationships of genetically predicted lipid levels to other diseases and conditions. We confirm known pleiotropic associations with cardiovascular phenotypes and determine novel associations, notably with cholelithiasis risk. We perform sex-stratified GWAS meta-analysis of lipid levels and show that 3–5% of autosomal lipid-associated loci demonstrate sex-biased effects. Finally, we report 21 novel lipid loci identified on the X chromosome. Many of the sex-biased autosomal and X chromosome lipid loci show pleiotropic associations with sex hormones, emphasizing the role of hormone regulation in lipid metabolism. Conclusions Taken together, our findings provide insights into the biological mechanisms through which associated variants lead to altered lipid levels and potentially cardiovascular disease risk.

Genetic factors have been found to be associated with severe COVID-19. Here, the authors integrated genomic, proteomic, and single-cell data to identify ELF5 as a candidate risk gene with a possible role in respiratory epithelial cells, which are targeted by SARS-CoV-2.

Background Self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet. Methods and findings We derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding. Conclusions These findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully. Trial registration Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) ACTRN12613000602729https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=363860. Jakub G Sobiecki and team aim to develop a biomarker score able to discriminate between Mediterranean diet and habitual diet, and test its association with incident type 2 diabetes in a European cohort. Author summary Why was this study done? Epidemiological evidence has indicated that greater self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet may be associated with lower risk of new onset type 2 diabetes (T2D), but there has been uncertainty about the magnitude of association due to subjective reporting of diet. A combination of nutritional biomarkers could better assess diet–disease associations, but this approach has rarely been considered for overall diet quality, particularly for the association between the Mediterranean diet and T2D. What did the researchers do and find? Blood carotenoids and fatty acids can be used as an objective measure of adherence to the Mediterranean diet, as indicated by results from a trial (n = 128) of adopting Mediterranean diet with provision of its key foods to study participants. These biomarkers discriminated well between the trial participants under the Mediterranean diet intervention and those randomised to continuation of habitual diet (C-statistic = 0.88). In a study across 8 European countries (n = 22,202), adherence to the Mediterranean diet, estimated using a combination of nutritional biomarkers, was associated with lower risk of new onset T2D, with a stronger relationship compared to that with self-reported Mediterranean diet. The hazard ratios (HRs) (95% confidence interval (CI)) per standard deviation of adherence were 0.71 (0.65 to 0.77) and 0.90 (0.86 to 0.95), respectively. What do these findings mean? Adherence to the Mediterranean diet may be more beneficial for the primary prevention of T2D than previously estimated from observational dietary studies. Even small upward differences in objectively measured Mediterranean diet may be associated with a sizeable reduction of the risk of T2D at the population level. Causal interpretation of these findings is limited by potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic accelerated the interest in implementing mobile health (mHealth) in population-based health studies, but evidence is lacking on engagement and adherence in studies. We conducted a fully remote study for ≥6 months tracking COVID-19 digital biomarkers and symptoms using a smartphone app nested within an existing cohort of adults. ObjectiveWe aimed to investigate participant characteristics associated with initial and sustained engagement in digital biomarker collection from a bespoke smartphone app and if engagement changed over time or because of COVID-19 factors and explore participants’ reasons for consenting to the smartphone substudy and experiences related to initial and continued engagement. MethodsParticipants in the Fenland COVID-19 study were invited to the app substudy from August 2020 to October 2020 until study closure (April 30, 2021). Participants were asked to complete digital biomarker modules (oxygen saturation, body temperature, and resting heart rate [RHR]) and possible COVID-19 symptoms in the app 3 times per week. Participants manually entered the measurements, except RHR that was measured using the smartphone camera. Engagement was categorized by median weekly frequency of completing the 3 digital biomarker modules (categories: 0, 1-2, and ≥3 times per week). Sociodemographic and health characteristics of those who did or did not consent to the substudy and by engagement category were explored. Semistructured interviews were conducted with 35 participants who were purposively sampled by sex, age, educational attainment, and engagement category, and data were analyzed thematically; 63% (22/35) of the participants consented to the app substudy, and 37% (13/35) of the participants did not consent. ResultsA total of 62.61% (2524/4031) of Fenland COVID-19 study participants consented to the app substudy. Of those, 90.21% (2277/2524) completed the app onboarding process. Median time in the app substudy was 34.5 weeks (IQR 34-37) with no change in engagement from 0 to 3 months or 3 to 6 months. Completion rates (≥1 per week) across the study between digital biomarkers were similar (RHR: 56,517/77,664, 72.77%; temperature: 56,742/77,664, 73.06%; oxygen saturation: 57,088/77,664, 73.51%). Older age groups and lower managerial and intermediate occupations were associated with higher engagement, whereas working, being a current smoker, being overweight or obese, and high perceived stress were associated with lower engagement. Continued engagement was facilitated through routine and personal motivation, and poor engagement was caused by user error and app or equipment malfunctions preventing data input. From these results, we developed key recommendations to improve engagement in population-based mHealth studies. ConclusionsThis mixed methods study demonstrated both high initial and sustained engagement in a large mHealth COVID-19 study over a ≥6-month period. Being nested in a known cohort study enabled the identification of participant characteristics and factors associated with engagement to inform future applications in population-based health research.

Vitamin C is an essential enzyme cofactor and antioxidant with pleiotropic roles in human physiology. Circulating vitamin C concentrations are lower in people with diabetes mellitus, suggesting a higher dietary requirement for the vitamin. We interrogated the NHANES 2017–2018 and EPIC-Norfolk datasets to compare vitamin C requirements between those with and without diabetes mellitus using dose–concentration relationships fitted with sigmoidal (four-parameter logistic) curves. The NHANES cohort (n = 2828 non-supplementing adults) comprised 488 (17%) participants with diabetes (self-reported or HbA1c ≥ 6.5%). The participants with diabetes had a lower vitamin C status (median [IQR]) than those without (38 [17, 52] µmol/L vs. 44 [25, 61] µmol/L, p < 0.0001), despite comparable dietary intakes between the two groups (51 [26, 93] mg/d vs. 53 [24, 104] mg/d, p = 0.5). Dose–concentration relationships indicated that the group without diabetes reached adequate vitamin C concentrations (50 µmol/L) with an intake of 81 (72, 93) mg/d, whilst those with diabetes required an intake of 166 (126, NA) mg/d. In the EPIC-Norfolk cohort, comprising 20692 non-supplementing adults, 475 (2.3%) had self-reported diabetes at baseline. The EPIC cohort had a lower BMI than the NHANES cohort (26 [24, 28] kg/m2 vs. 29 [25, 34] kg/m2, p < 0.0001). Correspondingly, the EPIC participants without diabetes required a lower vitamin C intake of 64 (63, 65) mg/d while those with diabetes required 129 (104, NA) mg/d to reach adequate circulating vitamin C status. C-reactive protein concentrations were strongly correlated with body weight and BMI and provided a surrogate biomarker for vitamin C requirements. In conclusion, people with diabetes had 1.4 to 1.6 fold higher requirements for vitamin C than those without diabetes. This corresponds to additional daily vitamin C intake requirements of ~30–40 mg for people with diabetes, equating to a total daily intake of at least 125 mg/d.

Serum proteins are easily accessible biomarkers and drug targets. Here, the authors use whole genome sequencing data to describe the genetic architecture of neurologically-relevant serum proteins and establish causal protein-neurological disease relationships.

Abstract Aims The HERMES (HEart failure Molecular Epidemiology for Therapeutic targetS) consortium aims to identify the genomic and molecular basis of heart failure. Methods and results The consortium currently includes 51 studies from 11 countries, including 68 157 heart failure cases and 949 888 controls, with data on heart failure events and prognosis. All studies collected biological samples and performed genome‐wide genotyping of common genetic variants. The enrolment of subjects into participating studies ranged from 1948 to the present day, and the median follow‐up following heart failure diagnosis ranged from 2 to 116 months. Forty‐nine of 51 individual studies enrolled participants of both sexes; in these studies, participants with heart failure were predominantly male (34–90%). The mean age at diagnosis or ascertainment across all studies ranged from 54 to 84 years. Based on the aggregate sample, we estimated 80% power to genetic variant associations with risk of heart failure with an odds ratio of ≥1.10 for common variants (allele frequency ≥ 0.05) and ≥1.20 for low‐frequency variants (allele frequency 0.01–0.05) at P

Broad-capture affinity-based proteomic technologies inform how the readout of our genes affects human health. Here, the authors integrate aptamer- and antibody-based profiling to understand the mechanisms underlying gene-protein-disease associations.

Mosaic loss of chromosome Y (LOY) is a common form of clonal mosaicism in leukocytes. Here, the authors extend genetic association analyses to rare variation using exome-sequence data from 82,277 males, finding that loss-of-function alleles in GIGYF1 are associated with six-fold higher susceptibility to both LOY and Type 2 Diabetes.

Abstract Cardiorespiratory fitness (CRF) is associated with mortality and cardiovascular disease, but assessing CRF in the population is challenging. Here we develop and validate a novel framework to estimate CRF (as maximal oxygen consumption, VO2max) from heart rate response to low-risk personalised exercise tests. We apply the method to examine associations between CRF and health outcomes in the UK Biobank study, one of the world’s largest and most inclusive studies of CRF, showing that risk of all-cause mortality is 8% lower (95%CI 5–11%, 2670 deaths among 79,981 participants) and cardiovascular mortality is 9% lower (95%CI 4–14%, 854 deaths) per 1-metabolic equivalent difference in CRF. Associations obtained with the novel validated CRF estimation method are stronger than those obtained using previous methodology, suggesting previous methods may have underestimated the importance of fitness for human health.

Associations between of omega-3 fatty acids and mortality are not clear. Here the authors report that, based on a pooled analysis of 17 prospective cohort studies, higher blood omega-3 fatty acid levels correlate with lower risk of all-cause mortality.

Background Experimental studies show that high‐sodium intake affects the innate immune system, among others with increased circulating granulocytes. Whether this relationship exists on a population level and whether this relates to disease outcomes is unclear. We aimed to test the hypotheses that (1) sodium intake is associated with granulocytes on a population level; (2) granulocytes are associated with the presence of hypertension and both cardiovascular and renal outcomes; and (3) the relation between high‐sodium intake and these outcomes is mediated by granulocytes. Methods and Results We performed an analysis in 13 804 participants from the prospective EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer)‐Norfolk cohort, with a mean age of 58 years and median follow‐up of 19.3 years. Analyses were carried out using calculated estimated sodium intake and sodium‐to‐potassium ratios from spot urines at baseline. The main outcomes were hypertension at baseline, and composite cardiovascular (mortality or cardiovascular events) and renal (mortality or renal events) outcomes during follow‐up. Sodium intake and urine sodium‐to‐potassium ratio were positively associated with circulating granulocyte concentrations after adjustment for confounders (β=0.03; P=0.028 and β=0.06; P

Abstract Background Characteristics of the built environment, such as neighbourhood fast-food outlet exposure, are increasingly recognised as risk factors for unhealthy diet and obesity. Obesity also has a genetic component, with common genetic variants explaining a substantial proportion of population-level obesity susceptibility. However, it is not known whether and to what extent associations between fast-food outlet exposure and body weight are modified by genetic predisposition to obesity. Methods We used data from the Fenland Study, a population-based sample of 12,435 UK adults (mean age 48.6 years). We derived a genetic risk score associated with BMI (BMI-GRS) from 96 BMI-associated single nucleotide polymorphisms. Neighbourhood fast-food exposure was defined as quartiles of counts of outlets around the home address. We used multivariable regression models to estimate the associations of each exposure, independently and in combination, with measured BMI, overweight and obesity, and investigated interactions. Results We found independent associations between BMI-GRS and risk of overweight (RR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.23–1.47) and obesity (RR = 1.73, 95% CI 1.55–1.93), and between fast-food outlet exposure and risk of obesity (highest vs lowest quartile RR = 1.58, 95% CI 1.21–2.05). There was no evidence of an interaction of fast-food outlet exposure and genetic risk on BMI (P = 0.09), risk of overweight (P = 0.51), or risk of obesity (P = 0.27). The combination of higher BMI-GRS and highest fast-food outlet exposure was associated with 2.70 (95% CI 1.99–3.66) times greater risk of obesity. Conclusions Our study demonstrated independent associations of both genetic obesity risk and neighbourhood fast-food outlet exposure with adiposity. These important drivers of the obesity epidemic have to date been studied in isolation. Neighbourhood fast-food outlet exposure remains a potential target of policy intervention to prevent obesity and promote the public’s health.

Sex differences in fasting glucose and insulin have been identified, but the genetic loci underlying these differences have not. Here, the authors perform a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to detect sex-specific and sex-dimorphic loci associated with fasting glucose and insulin.

Muscle weakness has been associated with morbidity and mortality in older people. Here, the authors have investigated this trait further by performing a genome-wide meta-analysis of grip strength and Mendelian randomization to discover causal relationships between muscle weakness and other diseases.

Finding effective treatments for COVID-19 depends upon understanding genetic regulation of proteins involved in SARS-CoV-2 infection and host response. Here, the authors identify genetic variants linked to expression of such proteins, data which could lead to the discovery of therapeutic targets.

Abstract Background Non-communicable diseases (NCDs) are the leading cause of death globally. While upstream approaches to tackle NCD risk factors of poor quality diets and physical inactivity have been trialled in high income countries (HICs), there is little evidence from low and middle-income countries (LMICs) that bear a disproportionate NCD burden. Sub-Saharan Africa and the Caribbean are therefore the focus regions for a novel global health partnership to address upstream determinants of NCDs. Partnership The Global Diet and Activity research Network (GDAR Network) was formed in July 2017 with funding from the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Global Health Research Units and Groups Programme. We describe the GDAR Network as a case example and a potential model for research generation and capacity strengthening for others committed to addressing the upstream determinants of NCDs in LMICs. We highlight the dual equity targets of research generation and capacity strengthening in the description of the four work packages. The work packages focus on learning from the past through identifying evidence and policy gaps and priorities, understanding the present through adolescent lived experiences of healthy eating and physical activity, and co-designing future interventions with non-academic stakeholders. Conclusion We present five lessons learned to date from the GDAR Network activities that can benefit other global health research partnerships. We close with a summary of the GDAR Network contribution to cultivating sustainable capacity strengthening and cutting-edge policy-relevant research as a beacon to exemplify the need for such collaborative groups.

The significant growth in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) prevalence strikes a common threat to the healthcare and economic systems globally. Despite the availability of several anti-hyperglycaemic agents in the market, none can offer T2DM remission. These agents include the prominent incretin-based therapy such as glucagon-like peptide-1 receptor (GLP-1R) agonists and dipeptidyl peptidase-4 inhibitors that are designed primarily to promote GLP-1R activation. Recent interest in various therapeutically useful gastrointestinal hormones in T2DM and obesity has surged with the realisation that enteroendocrine L-cells modulate the different incretins secretion and glucose homeostasis, reflecting the original incretin definition. Targeting L-cells offers promising opportunities to mimic the benefits of bariatric surgery on glucose homeostasis, bodyweight management, and T2DM remission. Revising the fundamental incretin theory is an essential step for therapeutic development in this area. Therefore, the present review explores enteroendocrine L-cell hormone expression, the associated nutrient-sensing mechanisms, and other physiological characteristics. Subsequently, enteroendocrine L-cell line models and the latest L-cell targeted therapies are reviewed critically in this paper. Bariatric surgery, pharmacotherapy and new paradigm of L-cell targeted pharmaceutical formulation are discussed here, offering both clinician and scientist communities a new common interest to push the scientific boundary in T2DM therapy.

Background Emerging evidence suggests accruing sedentary behavior (SB) in relatively more prolonged periods may convey additional cardiometabolic risks, but few studies have examined prospective outcomes. We examined the association of SB accumulation patterns with incident cardiovascular disease (CVD), cancer, and all‐cause mortality (ACM). Methods and Results Data were from 7671 EPIC‐Norfolk (European Prospective Investigation Into Cancer and Nutrition–Norfolk) cohort middle‐ to older‐aged adults who wore accelerometers on the right hip for 4 to 7 days. Cox proportional hazards regression modeled associations between 2 measures of SB accumulation and incident CVD, cancer, and ACM. These were usual SB bout duration (the midpoint of each individual’s SB accumulation curve, fitted using nonlinear regression) and alpha (hybrid measure of bout frequency and duration, with higher values indicating relatively shorter bouts and fewer long bouts). Models were adjusted for potential confounders, then further for 24‐hour time‐use compositions. During mean follow‐up time of 6.4 years, 339 ACM, 1106 CVD, and 516 cancer events occurred. Elevated rates of incident cancer and ACM were seen with more prolonged SB accumulation (lower alpha, higher usual SB bout duration) but not CVD. For usual SB bout duration and alpha, respectively, the confounder‐adjusted hazard ratios per SD of the exposure were 1.12 (95% CI, 1.02–1.23) and 0.88 (95% CI, 0.79–0.98) with incident cancer and 1.16 (95% CI, 1.07–1.26) and 0.80 (95% CI, 0.72–0.89) with ACM (all P

Background There is controversy about associations between total dietary fatty acids, their classes (saturated fatty acids [SFAs], monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids), and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Specifically, the relevance of food sources of SFAs to CHD associations is uncertain. Methods and Results We conducted a case‐cohort study involving 10 529 incident CHD cases and a random subcohort of 16 730 adults selected from a cohort of 385 747 participants in 9 countries of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study. We estimated multivariable adjusted country‐specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs per 5% of energy intake from dietary fatty acids, with and without isocaloric macronutrient substitutions, using Prentice‐weighted Cox regression models and pooled results using random‐effects meta‐analysis. We found no evidence for associations of the consumption of total or fatty acid classes with CHD, regardless of macronutrient substitutions. In analyses considering food sources, CHD incidence was lower per 1% higher energy intake of SFAs from yogurt (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88–0.99]), cheese (HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.96–1.00]), and fish (HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.75–1.00]), but higher for SFAs from red meat (HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.02–1.12]) and butter (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.00–1.04]). Conclusions This observational study found no strong associations of total fatty acids, SFAs, monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids, with incident CHD. By contrast, we found associations of SFAs with CHD in opposite directions dependent on the food source. These findings should be further confirmed, but support public health recommendations to consider food sources alongside the macronutrients they contain, and suggest the importance of the overall food matrix.

Abstract Background UK Biobank is a large prospective cohort study containing accelerometer-based physical activity data with strong validity collected from 100,000 participants approximately 5 years after baseline. In contrast, the main cohort has multiple self-reported physical behaviours from > 500,000 participants with longer follow-up time, offering several epidemiological advantages. However, questionnaire methods typically suffer from greater measurement error, and at present there is no tested method for combining these diverse self-reported data to more comprehensively assess the overall dose of physical activity. This study aimed to use the accelerometry sub-cohort to calibrate the self-reported behavioural variables to produce a harmonised estimate of physical activity energy expenditure, and subsequently examine its reliability, validity, and associations with disease outcomes. Methods We calibrated 14 self-reported behavioural variables from the UK Biobank main cohort using the wrist accelerometry sub-cohort (n = 93,425), and used published equations to estimate physical activity energy expenditure (PAEESR). For comparison, we estimated physical activity based on the scoring criteria of the International Physical Activity Questionnaire, and by summing variables for occupational and leisure-time physical activity with no calibration. Test-retest reliability was assessed using data from the UK Biobank repeat assessment (n = 18,905) collected a mean of 4.3 years after baseline. Validity was assessed in an independent validation study (n = 98) with estimates based on doubly labelled water (PAEEDLW). In the main UK Biobank cohort (n = 374,352), Cox regression was used to estimate associations between PAEESR and fatal and non-fatal outcomes including all-cause, cardiovascular diseases, respiratory diseases, and cancers. Results PAEESR explained 27% variance in gold-standard PAEEDLW estimates, with no mean bias. However, error was strongly correlated with PAEEDLW (r = −.98; p

Heart failure is a complex syndrome that is associated with many different underlying risk factors. Here, to increase power, the authors jointly analyse cases of heart failure of different aetiologies in a genome-wide association study and identify 11 loci of which ten had not been previously reported.

Inbreeding depression has been observed in many different species, but in humans a systematic analysis has been difficult so far. Here, analysing more than 1.3 million individuals, the authors show that a genomic inbreeding coefficient (FROH) is associated with disadvantageous outcomes in 32 out of 100 traits tested.

Abstract Background Measures of abdominal adiposity are strongly associated with all-cause mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). However, data are limited and conflicting regarding the consequences of changes in body fat distribution. The main aims of this paper are to investigate the association between changes in waist circumference (WC) and all-cause and CVD mortality and to examine these changes in relation to concurrent changes in weight. Methods The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC-Norfolk) study recruited 25,639 participants between 1993 and 1997, aged 39–79, a number of whom also attended a second examination (1998–2000), and were followed up to 2016 for mortality. Participants were eligible for inclusion if they had WC, weight and height measurements at both time-points; those with a self-reported history of CVD or cancer, body mass index 5 cm were 1.51 (1.29–1.75) and 1.25 (1.06–1.46) respectively. For CVD mortality in men and women with a WCG > 5 cm, the HRs were 1.84 (1.39–2.43) and 1.15 (0.85–1.55) respectively. In analyses of concurrent changes in WC and weight, the greatest risk (HRs) (95% CIs) in men occurred with weight loss and WCG: 1.80 (1.13–2.86) for all-cause and 2.22 (1.03–4.82) for CVD mortality. In women, the greatest risk for both all-cause (HR 1.50 (1.16–1.95)) and CVD mortality (HR 1.81 (1.15–2.85)) was observed in those with weight loss and maintenance of WC (WCM). Conclusions Objectively measured WCG > 5 cm, was associated with subsequent higher total mortality risk and higher CVD mortality risk in men. Interventions focusing on preventing increase in central adiposity rather than lowering weight per se in later life may potentially have greater health benefits.

Abstract Background We characterised the phenotypic consequence of genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus and compared findings with recent trials of pharmacological inhibitors of PCSK9. Methods Published and individual participant level data (300,000+ participants) were combined to construct a weighted PCSK9 gene-centric score (GS). Seventeen randomized placebo controlled PCSK9 inhibitor trials were included, providing data on 79,578 participants. Results were scaled to a one mmol/L lower LDL-C concentration. Results The PCSK9 GS (comprising 4 SNPs) associations with plasma lipid and apolipoprotein levels were consistent in direction with treatment effects. The GS odds ratio (OR) for myocardial infarction (MI) was 0.53 (95% CI 0.42; 0.68), compared to a PCSK9 inhibitor effect of 0.90 (95% CI 0.86; 0.93). For ischemic stroke ORs were 0.84 (95% CI 0.57; 1.22) for the GS, compared to 0.85 (95% CI 0.78; 0.93) in the drug trials. ORs with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) were 1.29 (95% CI 1.11; 1.50) for the GS, as compared to 1.00 (95% CI 0.96; 1.04) for incident T2DM in PCSK9 inhibitor trials. No genetic associations were observed for cancer, heart failure, atrial fibrillation, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, or Alzheimer’s disease – outcomes for which large-scale trial data were unavailable. Conclusions Genetic variation at the PCSK9 locus recapitulates the effects of therapeutic inhibition of PCSK9 on major blood lipid fractions and MI. While indicating an increased risk of T2DM, no other possible safety concerns were shown; although precision was moderate.

Abstract Data from dietary intervention studies suggest that intake of (−)-epicatechin mediates beneficial vascular effects in humans. However, population-based investigations are required to evaluate associations between habitual intake and health and these studies rely on accurate estimates of intake, which nutritional biomarkers can provide. Here, we evaluate a series of structurally related (−)-epicatechin metabolites (SREM), particularly (−)-epicatechin-3′-glucuronide, (−)-epicatechin-3′-sulfate and 3′-O-methyl-(−)-epicatechin-5-sulfate (SREMB), as flavan-3-ol and (−)-epicatechin intake. SREMB in urine proved to be a specific indicator of (−)-epicatechin intake, showing also a strong correlation with the amount of (−)-epicatechin ingested (R2: 0.86 (95% CI 0.8l; 0.92). The median recovery of (−)-epicatechin as SREMB in 24 h urine was 10% (IQR 7–13%) and we found SREMB in the majority of participants of EPIC Norfolk (83% of 24,341) with a mean concentration of 2.4 ± 3.2 µmol/L. Our results show that SREMB are suitable as biomarker of (−)-epicatechin intake. According to evaluation criteria from IARC and the Institute of Medicine, the results obtained support use of SREMB as a recovery biomarker to estimate actual intake of (−)-epicatechin.

Abstract Background Large changes in health behaviors achieved through intensive lifestyle intervention programs improve cardiovascular disease (CVD) risk factors among adults with type 2 diabetes. However, such interventions are not widely available, and there is limited evidence as to whether changes in behaviors affect risk of CVD events. Methods Among 852 adults with screen-detected type 2 diabetes in the ADDITION-Cambridge study, we assessed changes in diet, physical activity, and alcohol use in the year following diabetes diagnosis. Participants were recruited from 49 general practices in Eastern England from 2002 to 2006, and were followed through 2014 for incidence of CVD events (n = 116) and all-cause mortality (n = 127). We used Cox proportional hazards regression to estimate hazard ratios (HR) for the associations of changes in behaviors with CVD and all-cause mortality. We estimated associations with CVD risk factors using linear regression. We considered changes in individual behaviors and overall number of healthy changes. Models adjusted for demographic factors, bodyweight, smoking, baseline value of the health behavior, and cardio-protective medication use. Results Decreasing alcohol intake by ≥ 2 units/week was associated with lower hazard of CVD vs maintenance [HR: 0.56, 95% CI 0.36, 0.87]. Decreasing daily calorie intake by ≥ 300 kcal was associated with lower hazard of all-cause mortality vs maintenance [HR: 0.56, 95% CI 0.34, 0.92]. Achieving ≥ 2 healthy behavior changes was associated with lower hazard of CVD vs no healthy changes [HR: 0.39, 95% CI 0.18, 0.82]. Conclusions In the year following diabetes diagnosis, small reductions in alcohol use were associated with lower hazard of CVD and small reductions in calorie intake were associated with lower hazard of all-cause mortality in a population-based sample. Where insufficient resources exist for specialist-led interventions, achievement of moderate behavior change targets is possible outside of treatment programs and may reduce long-term risk of CVD complications. Trial registration This trial is registered as ISRCTN86769081. Retrospectively registered 15 December 2006

Background: Abdominal fat mass is associated with metabolic risk whilst gluteal femoral fat is paradoxically protective. MicroRNAs are known to be necessary for adipose tissue formation and function but their role in regulating human fat distribution remains largely unexplored. Methods: An initial microarray screen of abdominal subcutaneous and gluteal adipose tissue, with validatory qPCR, identified microRNA-196a as being strongly differentially expressed between gluteal and abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue. Findings: We found that rs11614913, a SNP within pre-miR-196a-2 at the HOXC locus, is an eQTL for miR-196a expression in abdominal subcutaneous adipose tissue (ASAT). Observations in large cohorts showed that rs11614913 increased waist-to-hip ratio, which was driven specifically by an expansion in ASAT. In further experiments, rs11614913 was associated with adipocyte size. Functional studies and transcriptomic profiling of miR-196a knock-down pre-adipocytes revealed a role for miR-196a in regulating pre-adipocyte proliferation and extracellular matrix pathways. Interpretation: These data identify a role for miR-196a in regulating human body fat distribution. Fund: This work was supported by the Medical Research Council and Novo Nordisk UK Research Foundation (G1001959) and Swedish Research Council. We acknowledge the OBB-NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre and the British Heart Foundation (BHF) (RG/17/1/32663). Work performed at the MRC Epidemiology Unit was funded by the United Kingdom's Medical Research Council through grants MC_UU_12015/1, MC_PC_13046, MC_PC_13048 and MR/L00002/1. Keywords: Abdominal, Adipocyte, Body fat distribution, Gluteal, Human adipose tissue, MicroRNA

Background: Lung function is highly heritable and differs between the sexes throughout life. However, little is known about sex-differential genetic effects on lung function. We aimed to conduct the first genome-wide genotype-by-sex interaction study on lung function to identify genetic effects that differ between males and females. Methods: We tested for interactions between 7,745,864 variants and sex on spirometry-based measures of lung function in UK Biobank (N=303,612), and sought replication in 75,696 independent individuals from the SpiroMeta consortium. Results: Five independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed genome-wide significant (P