251. 基于模糊实物期权的水电站项目投资决策研究.
- Author
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史晓瑶, 王 蕾, and 貊玉龙
- Abstract
Under the background of the country’s vigorous development of “double carbon” and the development of clean energy, hydropower projects have been significantly supported and promoted. The investment and construction of hydropower projects are inseparable from accurate value assessment. In order to improve the shortcomings of non-random uncertainty in the traditional investment decision-making method, this paper improved the B-S option pricing model based on the payment dividend and trapezoidal fuzzy number, and combined the free cash flow discount model and the real option model to construct a hydropower station project value evaluation and expansion model. The empirical analysis of small and medium-sized hydropower stations was selected as a case study, and the evaluation results were compared with the evaluation results obtained by the pure application of the net present value method and the real option pricing model to verify the feasibility of the model. The results show that the fuzzy real option method has good applicability for hydropower station projects, the payment of dividends will reduce the option value, and the volatility and option value calculated by the model are more objective and reasonable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2023
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