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Background De novo lipogenesis (DNL) is the primary metabolic pathway synthesizing fatty acids from carbohydrates, protein, or alcohol. Our aim was to examine associations of in vivo levels of selected fatty acids (16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, 18:1n9) in DNL with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods and findings Seventeen cohorts from 12 countries (7 from Europe, 7 from the United States, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan; baseline years = 1970–1973 to 2006–2010) conducted harmonized individual-level analyses of associations of DNL-related fatty acids with incident T2D. In total, we evaluated 65,225 participants (mean ages = 52.3–75.5 years; % women = 20.4%–62.3% in 12 cohorts recruiting both sexes) and 15,383 incident cases of T2D over the 9-year follow-up on average. Cohort-specific association of each of 16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, and 18:1n9 with incident T2D was estimated, adjusted for demographic factors, socioeconomic characteristics, alcohol, smoking, physical activity, dyslipidemia, hypertension, menopausal status, and adiposity. Cohort-specific associations were meta-analyzed with an inverse-variance-weighted approach. Each of the 4 fatty acids positively related to incident T2D. Relative risks (RRs) per cohort-specific range between midpoints of the top and bottom quintiles of fatty acid concentrations were 1.53 (1.41–1.66; p < 0.001) for 16:0, 1.40 (1.33–1.48; p < 0.001) for 16:1n-7, 1.14 (1.05–1.22; p = 0.001) for 18:0, and 1.16 (1.07–1.25; p < 0.001) for 18:1n9. Heterogeneity was seen across cohorts (I2 = 51.1%–73.1% for each fatty acid) but not explained by lipid fractions and global geographical regions. Further adjusted for triglycerides (and 16:0 when appropriate) to evaluate associations independent of overall DNL, the associations remained significant for 16:0, 16:1n7, and 18:0 but were attenuated for 18:1n9 (RR = 1.03, 95% confidence interval (CI) = 0.94–1.13). These findings had limitations in potential reverse causation and residual confounding by imprecisely measured or unmeasured factors. Conclusions Concentrations of fatty acids in the DNL were positively associated with T2D incidence. Our findings support further work to investigate a possible role of DNL and individual fatty acids in the development of T2D., Fumiaki Imamura and colleagues investigate the association between concentrations of fatty acid involved in de-novo lipogensis and incidence of Type 2 diabetes., Author summary Why was this study done? De novo lipogenesis (DNL) is a metabolic pathway involved in the endogenous synthesis of specific fatty acids, such as 16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, and 18:1n9, and it is linked to the pathophysiology of cardiometabolic diseases, including type 2 diabetes (T2D). Circulating or tissue concentrations of these fatty acids have been investigated for the associations with T2D incidence in epidemiological research. However, published studies reported inconsistent associations inconsistently and were subject to publication bias. Summary evidence is not available to date for the associations between these fatty acids and T2D incidence. An integration of available cohort studies would increase statistical power and allow assessment of generalizability, standardization of analytical strategies, and evidence synthesis with the potential publication bias minimized. What did the researchers do and find? As a part of the Fatty Acids and Outcomes Research Consortium (FORCE), we conducted new individual-participant data analyses of 17 cohort studies of a total of 65,225 adults free of T2D at baseline, among whom 15,383 developed incident T2D over up to 20 years of follow-up. The cohort studies analyzed the associations between fatty acids (16:0, 16:1n7, 18:0, and 18:1n9) and the risk of developing T2D with standardized analytic strategy. In pooled analyses, each of the fatty acids was positively associated with a higher risk of developing T2D. The associations were independent of major risk factors for T2D, such as age, sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic characteristics, smoking status, physical activity, and obesity. What do these findings mean? The findings provide the first summary evidence to date for the positive relationships of concentrations of the DNL-related fatty acids with a risk of T2D, indicating the strong relevance of DNL and its determinants to the development of T2D. These fatty acids potentially reflect the status of DNL activity, which may be stimulated or suppressed by a combination of carbohydrate intake, alcohol intake, polyunsaturated fatty acid intake, and other lifestyle and clinical factors. Therefore, the current findings indicate the need for investigation into determinants and consequences of elevated concentrations of these fatty acids. Despite several advantages of our individual-level data analysis in this pooling project, the results cannot establish whether elevated concentrations of these fatty acids caused the development of T2D or whether underlying peripheral or hepatic insulin resistance, for example, may elevate both the fatty acid concentrations and the risk of T2D independently.

Purpose Poor diet quality is one of the key contributors to poor cardiovascular health and associated morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to assess how the short-term associations between diet quality and metabolic risk factors change with age. Methods This longitudinal, observational study used data from the National Diet and Nutrition Survey (2008–2016) (n = 2024). Diet quality was measured using the Dietary Approaches to Stop Hypertension (DASH) index, fruit and vegetable (F&V) intake, and a F&V biomarker score. We assessed associations between measures of diet quality and a metabolic risk z score (generated from five metabolic risk factors) among those aged 11–60 years, and then tested effect modification by age group (adolescents 11–18 years, young adults 19–35 years, mid-aged adults 36–60 years). Results Analysis across all age groups showed inverse associations between standardised DASH index and metabolic risk z score of − 0.19 (95% CI − 0.26, − 0.11). These associations were moderated by age group, with strong associations seen in mid-aged adults: − 0.27 (95% CI − 0.39, − 0.16), but associations were significantly attenuated in young adults [− 0.10 (95% CI − 0.22, 0.01)] and adolescents [0.03 (95% CI − 0.05, 0.11)]. Similar results were found for F&V intake and F&V biomarker score. Conclusions Short-term associations between diet quality and metabolic risk are not consistent across adolescent and young adult age groups, suggesting that mechanisms by which diet impacts on metabolic risk may be acting differently in younger age groups compared to adults. Further research is warranted using longitudinal study designs and replication in different populations to understand changes in determinants of cardiometabolic health with age.

Differences between sexes contribute to variation in the levels of fasting glucose and insulin. Epidemiological studies established a higher prevalence of impaired fasting glucose in men and impaired glucose tolerance in women, however, the genetic component underlying this phenomenon is not established. We assess sex-dimorphic (73,089/50,404 women and 67,506/47,806 men) and sex-combined (151,188/105,056 individuals) fasting glucose/fasting insulin genetic effects via genome-wide association study meta-analyses in individuals of European descent without diabetes. Here we report sex dimorphism in allelic effects on fasting insulin at IRS1 and ZNF12 loci, the latter showing higher RNA expression in whole blood in women compared to men. We also observe sex-homogeneous effects on fasting glucose at seven novel loci. Fasting insulin in women shows stronger genetic correlations than in men with waist-to-hip ratio and anorexia nervosa. Furthermore, waist-to-hip ratio is causally related to insulin resistance in women, but not in men. These results position dissection of metabolic and glycemic health sex dimorphism as a steppingstone for understanding differences in genetic effects between women and men in related phenotypes., Sex differences in fasting glucose and insulin have been identified, but the genetic loci underlying these differences have not. Here, the authors perform a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies to detect sex-specific and sex-dimorphic loci associated with fasting glucose and insulin.

The health effects of omega-3 fatty acids have been controversial. Here we report the results of a de novo pooled analysis conducted with data from 17 prospective cohort studies examining the associations between blood omega-3 fatty acid levels and risk for all-cause mortality. Over a median of 16 years of follow-up, 15,720 deaths occurred among 42,466 individuals. We found that, after multivariable adjustment for relevant risk factors, risk for death from all causes was significantly lower (by 15–18%, at least p, Associations between of omega-3 fatty acids and mortality are not clear. Here the authors report that, based on a pooled analysis of 17 prospective cohort studies, higher blood omega-3 fatty acid levels correlate with lower risk of all-cause mortality.

OBJECTIVE: The Mediterranean diet has been promoted as a healthy dietary pattern, but whether the Mediterranean diet may help to prevent hepatic steatosis is not clear. This study aimed to evaluate the prospective association between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and risk of hepatic steatosis. DESIGN: Population-based prospective cohort study. SETTING: The Swiss CoLaus Study. PARTICIPANTS: We evaluated 2288 adults (65.4% women, aged 55.8±10.0 years) without hepatic steatosis at first follow-up in 2009-2012. Adherence to the Mediterranean diet was scaled as the Mediterranean diet score (MDS) based on the Mediterranean diet pyramid ascertained with responses to Food Frequency Questionnaires. OUTCOME MEASURES: New onset of hepatic steatosis was ascertained by two indices separately: the Fatty Liver Index (FLI, ≥60 points) and the non-alcoholic fatty liver disease (NAFLD) score (≥-0.640 points). Prospective associations between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and risk of hepatic steatosis were quantified using Poisson regression. RESULTS: During a mean 5.3 years of follow-up, hepatic steatosis was ascertained in 153 (6.7%) participants by FLI criteria and in 208 (9.1%) by NAFLD score. After multivariable adjustment, higher adherence to MDS was associated with lower risk of hepatic steatosis based on FLI: risk ratio 0.84 (95% CI 0.73 to 0.96) per 1 SD of MDS; 0.85 (0.73 to 0.99) adjusted for BMI; and 0.85 (0.71 to 1.02) adjusted for both BMI and waist circumference. When using NAFLD score, no significant association was found between MDS and risk of hepatic steatosis (0.95 (0.83 to 1.09)). CONCLUSION: A potential role of the Mediterranean diet in the prevention of hepatic steatosis is suggested by the inverse association observed between adherence to the Mediterranean diet and incidence of hepatic steatosis based on the FLI. The inconsistency of this association when hepatic steatosis was assessed by NAFLD score points to the need for accurate population-level assessment of fatty liver and its physiological markers.

Funder: European Union FP6 programme grant number LSHM_CT_2006_037197, Type 2 diabetes (T2D) is a global public health challenge. Whilst the advent of genome-wide association studies has identified >400 genetic variants associated with T2D, our understanding of its biological mechanisms and translational insights is still limited. The EPIC-InterAct project, centred in 8 countries in the European Prospective Investigations into Cancer and Nutrition study, is one of the largest prospective studies of T2D. Established as a nested case-cohort study to investigate the interplay between genetic and lifestyle behavioural factors on the risk of T2D, a total of 12,403 individuals were identified as incident T2D cases, and a representative sub-cohort of 16,154 individuals was selected from a larger cohort of 340,234 participants with a follow-up time of 3.99 million person-years. We describe the results from a genome-wide association analysis between more than 8.9 million SNPs and T2D risk among 22,326 individuals (9,978 cases and 12,348 non-cases) from the EPIC-InterAct study. The summary statistics to be shared provide a valuable resource to facilitate further investigations into the genetics of T2D.

Background Prior research suggested a differential association of 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) metabolites with type 2 diabetes (T2D), with total 25(OH)D and 25(OH)D3 inversely associated with T2D, but the epimeric form (C3-epi-25(OH)D3) positively associated with T2D. Whether or not these observational associations are causal remains uncertain. We aimed to examine the potential causality of these associations using Mendelian randomisation (MR) analysis. Methods and findings We performed a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for total 25(OH)D (N = 120,618), 25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562), and C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (N = 40,562) in participants of European descent (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition [EPIC]–InterAct study, EPIC-Norfolk study, EPIC-CVD study, Ely study, and the SUNLIGHT consortium). We identified genetic variants for MR analysis to investigate the causal association of the 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D (including 80,983 T2D cases and 842,909 non-cases). We also estimated the observational association of 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D by performing random effects meta-analysis of results from previous studies and results from the EPIC-InterAct study. We identified 10 genetic loci associated with total 25(OH)D, 7 loci associated with 25(OH)D3 and 3 loci associated with C3-epi-25(OH)D3. Based on the meta-analysis of observational studies, each 1–standard deviation (SD) higher level of 25(OH)D was associated with a 20% lower risk of T2D (relative risk [RR]: 0.80; 95% CI 0.77, 0.84; p < 0.001), but a genetically predicted 1-SD increase in 25(OH)D was not significantly associated with T2D (odds ratio [OR]: 0.96; 95% CI 0.89, 1.03; p = 0.23); this result was consistent across sensitivity analyses. In EPIC-InterAct, 25(OH)D3 (per 1-SD) was associated with a lower risk of T2D (RR: 0.81; 95% CI 0.77, 0.86; p < 0.001), while C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (above versus below lower limit of quantification) was positively associated with T2D (RR: 1.12; 95% CI 1.03, 1.22; p = 0.006), but neither 25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.97; 95% CI 0.93, 1.01; p = 0.14) nor C3-epi-25(OH)D3 (OR: 0.98; 95% CI 0.93, 1.04; p = 0.53) was causally associated with T2D risk in the MR analysis. Main limitations include the lack of a non-linear MR analysis and of the generalisability of the current findings from European populations to other populations of different ethnicities. Conclusions Our study found discordant associations of biochemically measured and genetically predicted differences in blood 25(OH)D with T2D risk. The findings based on MR analysis in a large sample of European ancestry do not support a causal association of total 25(OH)D or 25(OH)D metabolites with T2D and argue against the use of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of T2D., Using both observational and genetic analyses, Ju-Sheng Zheng and colleagues investigate the relationship between vitamin D metabolites and type 2 diabetes among European individuals., Author summary Why was this study done? There is ongoing uncertainty on whether the body’s vitamin D status indicated by blood 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) is relevant to the prevention of type 2 diabetes. There are conflicting findings from observational studies and a limited number of randomised controlled trials. Prior research did not distinguish between different metabolites of total 25(OH)D, including 25(OH)D3 and C3-epi-25(OH)D3, an isomer of 25(OH)D3. It is not clear whether the associations of 25(OH)D metabolites with type 2 diabetes are causal, with conflicting findings from prior Mendelian randomisation studies of total 25(OH)D and no previous Mendelian randomisation studies appraising 25(OH)D metabolites. What did the researchers do and find? The current research compared observational estimates of the association between 25(OH)D metabolites and incident type 2 diabetes with Mendelian randomisation estimates based on genetic instruments. Using multiple data sources, we performed genome-wide association studies among 120,618 individuals for total 25(OH)D, and among 40,562 individuals for the other vitamin D metabolites. Among participants of European descent, 10 genetic loci were identified for total 25(OH)D, 7 loci for 25(OH)D3 and 3 loci for C3-epi-25(OH)D3. In meta-analysis of observational studies, we found that each 1–standard deviation higher level of total 25(OH)D was associated with 20% lower risk of type 2 diabetes. The result was similar for 25(OH)D3, but for C3-epi-25(OH)D3, a positive association with type 2 diabetes was found. With up to 80,983 type 2 diabetes cases and 842,909 controls, we assessed the association of genetically predicted differences in total 25(OH)D and its metabolites with type 2 diabetes. Neither genetically predicted higher total 25(OH)D level nor genetically predicted higher levels of 25(OH)D metabolites were significantly associated with type 2 diabetes. What do these findings mean? There were conflicting findings for a link with type 2 diabetes for the observational analysis of biochemically measured 25(OH)D metabolites versus the genetically predicted levels of these metabolites. The null findings based on Mendelian randomisation analysis indicate that blood levels of 25(OH)D or its metabolites are not likely to be causal factors for the development of type 2 diabetes. The current findings together with other evidence from randomised controlled trials do not support the use of vitamin D supplementation for the prevention of type 2 diabetes.

We conducted genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of relative intake from the macronutrients fat, protein, carbohydrates, and sugar in over 235,000 individuals of European ancestries. We identified 21 unique, approximately independent lead SNPs. Fourteen lead SNPs are uniquely associated with one macronutrient at genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8), while five of the 21 lead SNPs reach suggestive significance (P < 1 × 10-5) for at least one other macronutrient. While the phenotypes are genetically correlated, each phenotype carries a partially unique genetic architecture. Relative protein intake exhibits the strongest relationships with poor health, including positive genetic associations with obesity, type 2 diabetes, and heart disease (rg ≈ 0.15-0.5). In contrast, relative carbohydrate and sugar intake have negative genetic correlations with waist circumference, waist-hip ratio, and neighborhood deprivation (|rg| ≈ 0.1-0.3) and positive genetic correlations with physical activity (rg ≈ 0.1 and 0.2). Relative fat intake has no consistent pattern of genetic correlations with poor health but has a negative genetic correlation with educational attainment (rg ≈-0.1). Although our analyses do not allow us to draw causal conclusions, we find no evidence of negative health consequences associated with relative carbohydrate, sugar, or fat intake. However, our results are consistent with the hypothesis that relative protein intake plays a role in the etiology of metabolic dysfunction. This research was carried out under the auspices of the Social Science Genetic Association Consortium (SSGAC, https://www.thessgac.org/). The research has also been conducted using the UK Biobank Resource under Application Number 11425. The study was supported by funding from the Ragnar Söderberg Foundation (E9/11 and E42/15), the Swedish Research Council (421-2013-1061), The Jan Wallander and Tom Hedelius Foundation, an ERC Consolidator Grant to Philipp Koellinger (647648 EdGe), the Pershing Square Fund of the Foundations of Human Behavior, The Open Philanthropy Project (2016-152872, 010623-00001), and the NIA/NIH through grants P01-AG005842, P01-AG005842-20S2, P30-AG012810, and T32-AG000186-23 to NBER, and R01-AG042568-02 and R56-AG042568-04 to the University of Southern California. CCC was supported by the Intramural Research Program of the NIH/NIDDK and thanks Kevin Hall for informative discussions. PME was funded by Nestlé Nutrition. We thank the DietGen and CHARGE consortia for sharing diet-composition GWAS summary statistics, and we thank 23andMe, Inc., for sharing physical activity GWAS summary statistics. A full list of acknowledgements is provided in Supplementary Information 13.

Data from dietary intervention studies suggest that intake of (−)-epicatechin mediates beneficial vascular effects in humans. However, population-based investigations are required to evaluate associations between habitual intake and health and these studies rely on accurate estimates of intake, which nutritional biomarkers can provide. Here, we evaluate a series of structurally related (−)-epicatechin metabolites (SREM), particularly (−)-epicatechin-3′-glucuronide, (−)-epicatechin-3′-sulfate and 3′-O-methyl-(−)-epicatechin-5-sulfate (SREMB), as flavan-3-ol and (−)-epicatechin intake. SREMB in urine proved to be a specific indicator of (−)-epicatechin intake, showing also a strong correlation with the amount of (−)-epicatechin ingested (R2: 0.86 (95% CI 0.8l; 0.92). The median recovery of (−)-epicatechin as SREMB in 24 h urine was 10% (IQR 7–13%) and we found SREMB in the majority of participants of EPIC Norfolk (83% of 24,341) with a mean concentration of 2.4 ± 3.2 µmol/L. Our results show that SREMB are suitable as biomarker of (−)-epicatechin intake. According to evaluation criteria from IARC and the Institute of Medicine, the results obtained support use of SREMB as a recovery biomarker to estimate actual intake of (−)-epicatechin.

Aims/hypothesis: Islet autoimmunity may progress to adult-onset diabetes. We investigated whether circulating odd-chain fatty acids (OCFA) 15:0 and 17:0, which are inversely associated with type 2 diabetes, interact with autoantibodies against GAD65 (GAD65Ab) on the incidence of adult-onset diabetes. Methods: We used the European EPIC-InterAct case–cohort study including 11,124 incident adult-onset diabetes cases and a subcohort of 14,866 randomly selected individuals. Adjusted Prentice-weighted Cox regression estimated HRs and 95% CIs of diabetes in relation to 1 SD lower plasma phospholipid 15:0 and/or 17:0 concentrations or their main contributor, dairy intake, among GAD65Ab-negative and -positive individuals. Interactions between tertiles of OCFA and GAD65Ab status were estimated by proportion attributable to interaction (AP). Results: Low concentrations of OCFA, particularly 17:0, were associated with a higher incidence of adult-onset diabetes in both GAD65Ab-negative (HR 1.55 [95% CI 1.48, 1.64]) and GAD65Ab-positive (HR 1.69 [95% CI 1.34, 2.13]) individuals. The combination of low 17:0 and high GAD65Ab positivity vs high 17:0 and GAD65Ab negativity conferred an HR of 7.51 (95% CI 4.83, 11.69), with evidence of additive interaction (AP 0.25 [95% CI 0.05, 0.45]). Low dairy intake was not associated with diabetes incidence in either GAD65Ab-negative (HR 0.98 [95% CI 0.94, 1.02]) or GAD65Ab-positive individuals (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.79, 1.18]). Conclusions/interpretation: Low plasma phospholipid 17:0 concentrations may promote the progression from GAD65Ab positivity to adult-onset diabetes. Graphical Abstract: [Figure not available: see fulltext.]

BACKGROUND: Self-reported meat consumption is associated with disease risk but objective assessment of different dimensions of this heterogeneous dietary exposure in observational and interventional studies remains challenging. OBJECTIVES: We aimed to derive and validate scores based on plasma metabolites for types of meat consumption. For the most predictive score, we aimed to test whether the included metabolites varied with change in meat consumption, and whether the score was associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) and other noncommunicable diseases. METHODS: We derived scores based on 781 plasma metabolites for red meat, processed meat, and poultry consumption assessed with 7-d food records among 11,432 participants in the EPIC-Norfolk (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Norfolk) cohort. The scores were then tested for internal validity in an independent subset (n = 853) of the same cohort. In focused analysis on the red meat metabolite score, we examined whether the metabolites constituting the score were also associated with meat intake in a randomized crossover dietary intervention trial of meat (n = 12, Lyon, France). In the EPIC-Norfolk study, we assessed the association of the red meat metabolite score with T2D incidence (n = 1478) and other health endpoints. RESULTS: The best-performing score was for red meat, comprising 139 metabolites which accounted for 17% of the explained variance of red meat consumption in the validation set. In the intervention, 11 top-ranked metabolites in the red meat metabolite score increased significantly after red meat consumption. In the EPIC-Norfolk study, the red meat metabolite score was associated with T2D incidence (adjusted HR per SD: 1.17; 95% CI: 1.10, 1.24). CONCLUSIONS: The red meat metabolite score derived and validated in this study contains metabolites directly derived from meat consumption and is associated with T2D risk. These findings suggest the potential for objective assessment of dietary components and their application for understanding diet-disease associations.The trial in Lyon, France, was registered at clinicaltrials.gov as NCT03354130.

The MedLey trial was funded by a National Health and Medical Research Council Grant (#APP1050949 to KJM). The InterAct project was funded by the EU FP6 programme (grant number LSHM_CT_2006_037197 to NJW). Biomarker measurements for carotenoids were funded jointly by the InterAct project, the EPIC-CVD project, and the MRC Cambridge Initiative (RG71466 and SJAH/004 to NJW, NGF, JD, AB). EPIC-CVD has been supported by the UK Medical Research Council (MR/L003120/1 to ASB and JD), the British Heart Foundation (RG/13/13/30194 and RG/18/13/33946 to ASB and JD), the European Commission Framework Programme 7 (HEALTH -F2-2012-279233 to ASB and JD), the European Research Council (268834 to ASB and JD), and the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR; Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre at the Cambridge University Hospitals NHS Foundation Trust, BRC-1215-20014 to ASB and JD). This work was also supported by Health Data Research UK (to ASB and JD), which is funded by the UK Medical Research Council, Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, Economic and Social Research Council, Department of Health and Social Care (England), Chief Scientist Office of the Scottish Government Health and Social Care Directorates, Health and Social Care Research and Development Division (Welsh Government), Public Health Agency (Northern Ireland), and Wellcome. The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by the International Agency for Research on Cancer (IARC) and also by the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London which has additional infrastructure support provided by the NIHR Imperial Biomedical Research Centre (BRC). The national cohorts are supported by: Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Ge'ne'rale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Sante' et de la Recherche Me'dicale (INSERM) (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center (DKFZ), German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke (DIfE), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF) (Germany); Associazione Iblea Ricerca Epidemiologica (A.I.R.E. - ONLUS) Ragusa, Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro-AIRC-Italy, Compagnia di San Paolo, National Research Council and Sicilian Regional Government (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports (VWS), Netherlands~Cancer Registry (NKR), LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Dutch ZON (Zorg Onderzoek Nederland), World Cancer Research Fund (WCRF), Statistics Netherlands (The Netherlands); Health Research Fund (FIS) -Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Regional Governments of Andaluci'a, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology -ICO (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Skane and Vasterbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to NJW; C8221/A29017), Medical Research Council (1000143 to NJW; MR/M012190/1) (United Kingdom). JGS was supported by the MRC PhD studentship. NJW, NGF, and FI acknowledge funding from the Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit (MC_UU_00006/1, MC_UU_00006/3); and NJW, NGF and AK from the NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (IS-BRC-1215-20014; NIHR203312). NGF and JD are NIHR Senior Investigators. JD holds a British Heart Foundation Professorship. MBS acknowledges funding from the Federal Ministry of Education and Research and the State of Brandenburg (DZD grant 82DZD03D03). JSZ has received funding from Westlake University (No YSYY0209) and European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under the Marie Sklodowska-Curie grant agreement No 701708. PWF has received funding from Novo Nordisk, Swedish Diabetes Association, Swedish Heart-Lung Foundation, European Research Council. ER has received funding from Imperial College Biomedical Research Centre. The funders of the studies had no role in the study design, data collection, data analysis, data interpretation, or report preparation. Trial Australian., Background Self-reported adherence to the Mediterranean diet has been modestly inversely associated with incidence of type 2 diabetes (T2D) in cohort studies. There is uncertainty about the validity and magnitude of this association due to subjective reporting of diet. The association has not been evaluated using an objectively measured biomarker of the Mediterranean diet. Methods and findings We derived a biomarker score based on 5 circulating carotenoids and 24 fatty acids that discriminated between the Mediterranean or habitual diet arms of a parallel design, 6-month partial-feeding randomised controlled trial (RCT) conducted between 2013 and 2014, the MedLey trial (128 participants out of 166 randomised). We applied this biomarker score in an observational study, the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study, to assess the association of the score with T2D incidence over an average of 9.7 years of follow-up since the baseline (1991 to 1998). We included 22,202 participants, of whom 9,453 were T2D cases, with relevant biomarkers from an original case-cohort of 27,779 participants sampled from a cohort of 340,234 people. As a secondary measure of the Mediterranean diet, we used a score estimated from dietary-self report. Within the trial, the biomarker score discriminated well between the 2 arms; the cross-validated C-statistic was 0.88 (95% confidence interval (CI) 0.82 to 0.94). The score was inversely associated with incident T2D in EPIC-InterAct: the hazard ratio (HR) per standard deviation of the score was 0.71 (95% CI: 0.65 to 0.77) following adjustment for sociodemographic, lifestyle and medical factors, and adiposity. In comparison, the HR per standard deviation of the self-reported Mediterranean diet was 0.90 (95% CI: 0.86 to 0.95). Assuming the score was causally associated with T2D, higher adherence to the Mediterranean diet in Western European adults by 10 percentiles of the score was estimated to reduce the incidence of T2D by 11% (95% CI: 7% to 14%). The study limitations included potential measurement error in nutritional biomarkers, unclear specificity of the biomarker score to the Mediterranean diet, and possible residual confounding. Conclusions These findings suggest that objectively assessed adherence to the Mediterranean diet is associated with lower risk of T2D and that even modestly higher adherence may have the potential to reduce the population burden of T2D meaningfully., EU FP6 programme LSHM_CT_2006_037197, European Commission Framework Programme 7 HEALTH-F2-2012-279233, European Research Council (ERC), World Health Organization, Health Research Fund (FIS) - Instituto de Salud Carlos III (ISCIII), Catalan Institute of Oncology - ICO (Spain), Spanish Government 701708, Marie Curie Actions 701708, European Union's Horizon 2020, Marie Sklodowska-Curie 701708

BACKGROUND/OBJECTIVES: Physical activity energy expenditure (PAEE) represents the total volume of all physical activity. This can be accumulated as different underlying intensity profiles. Although volume and intensity have been studied in isolation, less is known about their joint association with health. We examined this association with body fatness in a population-based sample of middle-aged British adults. METHODS: In total, 6148 women and 5320 men from the Fenland study with objectively measured physical activity from individually calibrated combined heart rate and movement sensing and DXA-derived body fat percentage (BF%) were included in the analyses. We used linear and compositional isocaloric substitution analysis to examine associations of PAEE and its intensity composition with body fatness. Sex-stratified models were adjusted for socio-economic and dietary covariates. RESULTS: PAEE was inversely associated with body fatness in women (beta = -0.16 (95% CI: -0.17; -0.15) BF% per kJ day-1 kg-1) and men (beta = -0.09 (95% CI: -0.10; -0.08) BF% per kJ day-1 kg-1). Intensity composition was significantly associated with body fatness, beyond that of PAEE; the reallocation of energy to vigorous physical activity (>6 METs) from other intensities was associated with less body fatness, whereas light activity (1.5-3 METs) was positively associated. However, light activity was the main driver of overall PAEE volume, and the relative importance of intensity was marginal compared to that of volume; the difference between PAEE in tertile 1 and 2 in women was associated with 3 percentage-point lower BF%. Higher vigorous physical activity in the same group to the maximum observed value was associated with 1 percentage-point lower BF%. CONCLUSIONS: In this large, population-based cohort study with objective measures, PAEE was inversely associated with body fatness. Beyond the PAEE association, greater levels of intense activity were also associated with lower body fatness. This contribution was marginal relative to PAEE. These findings support current guidelines for physical activity which emphasise that any movement is beneficial, rather than specific activity intensity or duration targets., The Fenland study was funded by the Medical Research Council and the Wellcome Trust. The current work was supported by the Medical Research Council (S.B., K.Wi., T.S., K.We, P.C.D., grant number MC_UU_12015/3, MC_UU_00006/4), (S.G., grant number MC_UU_12015/4, MC_UU_00006/6), (N.J.W., grant number MC_UU_12015/1, MC_UU_00006/1), (N.G.F., grant number MC_UU_12015/5, MC_UU_00006/3); the National Institute of Health Research Cambridge (NIHR) Biomedical Research Centre (K.We., E.D.L.R., S.B., N.G.F., and N.J.W., grant number IS-BRC-1215-20014); National Health and Medical Research Council of Australia Research Fellowship (P.C.D., grant number 1142685), and the Cambridge Trust and St Catharine���s College (T.L.). The funders had no role in the design, analysis or writing of this article.

Objective: The aim of this study was to evaluate the associations among the intake of total polyphenols, polyphenol classes, and polyphenol subclasses and body weight change over 5years. Methods: A total of 349,165 men and women aged 25 to 70years were recruited in the Physical Activity, Nutrition, Alcohol, Cessation of Smoking, Eating Out of Home and Obesity (PANACEA) project of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort from nine European countries. Body weight was measured at baseline and at follow-up after a median time of 5years. Polyphenol intake, including four main polyphenol classes and eighteen subclasses, was estimated using validated dietary questionnaires and Phenol-Explorer. Multilevel mixed linear regression models were used to estimate the associations. Results: Participants gained, on average, 2.6 kg (5.0 kg) over 5years. Total flavonoids intake was inversely associated with body weight change (-0.195kg/5 years, 95% CI: -0.262 to -0.128). However, the intake of total polyphenols (0.205kg/5 years, 95% CI: 0.138 to 0.272) and intake of hydroxycinnamic acids (0.324kg/5 years, 95% CI: 0.267 to 0.381) were positively associated with body weight gain. In analyses stratified by coffee consumption, hydroxycinnamic acid intake was positively associated with body weight gain in coffee consumers (0.379kg/5 years, 95% CI: 0.319 to 0.440), but not in coffee nonconsumers (-0.179kg/5 years, 95% CI: -0.490 to 0.133). Conclusions: Higher intakes of flavonoids and their subclasses are inversely associated with a modest body weight change. Results regarding hydroxycinnamic acids in coffee consumers require further investigation., Consejo Nacional de Ciencia y Tecnologia (CONACyT) 693636, Instituto de Salud Carlos III CD20/ 00071 CPII20/00009 FI19/00185 PI18/ 00191

Background: An inverse association between vitamin D status and cardiometabolic risk has been reported but this relationship may have been affected by residual confounding from adiposity and physical activity due to imprecise measures of these variables. We aimed to investigate the relationship between serum 25-hydroxyvitamin D (25(OH)D) and cardiometabolic risk factors, with adjustment for objectively-measured physical activity and adiposity. Methods: This was a population-based cross-sectional study in 586 adults in Cameroon (63.5% women). We assessed markers of glucose homeostasis (fasting blood glucose (BG), 2-h post glucose load BG, HOMA-IR)) and computed a metabolic syndrome score by summing the sex‐specific z‐scores of five risk components measuring central adiposity, blood pressure, glucose HDL cholesterol and triglycerides. Results: Mean±SD age was 38.3±8.6 years, and serum 25(OH)D was 51.7±12.5 nmol/L. Mean 25(OH)D was higher in rural (53.4±12.8 nmol/L) than urban residents (50.2±12.1 nmol/L), p=0.002. The prevalence of vitamin D insufficiency (< 50 nmol/L) was 45.7%. There was an inverse association between 25(OH)D and the metabolic syndrome score in unadjusted analyses (β= -0.30, 95% CI -0.55 to -0.05), which became non-significant after adjusting for age, sex, smoking status, alcohol intake and education level. Serum 25(OH)D was inversely associated with fasting BG (-0.21, -0.34 to -0.08)), which remained significant after adjustment for age, sex, education, smoking, alcohol intake, season of data collection, BMI and physical activity (-0.17, -0.29 to -0.06). There was an inverse association of 25(OH)D with 2-h BG (-0.20, -0.34 to -0.05) and HOMA-IR (-0.12, -0.19 to -0.04) in unadjusted analysis, but these associations became non-significant after adjustment for potential confounders. Conclusion: Vitamin D insufficiency was common in this population. This study showed an inverse association between vitamin D status and fasting glucose that was independent of potential confounders including objectively measured physical activity and adiposity suggesting a possible mechanism through insulin secretion., CMM receives funding from the Cambridge Trust International-Islamic Development Bank Scholarship. NJW, NGF and FI acknowledge funding from the Medical Research Council Epidemiology Unit MC_UU_00006/1 and MC_UU_00006/3; NJW, NGF and AK from NIHR Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre: nutrition, diet, and lifestyle research theme (IS-BRC-1215-20014). NGF is an NIHR Senior Investigator.

OBJECTIVE Higher plasma vitamin C levels are associated with lower type 2 diabetes risk, but whether this association is causal is uncertain. To investigate this, we studied the association of genetically predicted plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS We conducted genome-wide association studies of plasma vitamin C among 52,018 individuals of European ancestry to discover novel genetic variants. We performed Mendelian randomization analyses to estimate the association of genetically predicted differences in plasma vitamin C with type 2 diabetes in up to 80,983 case participants and 842,909 noncase participants. We compared this estimate with the observational association between plasma vitamin C and incident type 2 diabetes, including 8,133 case participants and 11,073 noncase participants. RESULTS We identified 11 genomic regions associated with plasma vitamin C (P < 5 × 10−8), with the strongest signal at SLC23A1, and 10 novel genetic loci including SLC23A3, CHPT1, BCAS3, SNRPF, RER1, MAF, GSTA5, RGS14, AKT1, and FADS1. Plasma vitamin C was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio per SD 0.88; 95% CI 0.82, 0.94), but there was no association between genetically predicted plasma vitamin C (excluding FADS1 variant due to its apparent pleiotropic effect) and type 2 diabetes (1.03; 95% CI 0.96, 1.10). CONCLUSIONS These findings indicate discordance between biochemically measured and genetically predicted plasma vitamin C levels in the association with type 2 diabetes among European populations. The null Mendelian randomization findings provide no strong evidence to suggest the use of vitamin C supplementation for type 2 diabetes prevention.

Objective: Trans-fatty acids (TFAs) have harmful biologic effects that could increase risk of type 2 diabetes (T2D), but evidence remains uncertain. We aimed to investigate the prospective associations of TFAs biomarkers and T2D by conducting an individual participant-level pooled analysis. Research design and methods: We included data from an international consortium of 12 prospective cohorts and nested case-control studies from six nations. TFA biomarkers were measured in blood collected between 1990-2008 from 25,126 participants aged ≥18 years without prevalent diabetes. Each cohort conducted de novo harmonized analyses using a pre-specified protocol, and findings were pooled using inverse-variance weighted meta-analysis. Heterogeneity was explored by prespecified between-study and within-study characteristics. Results: During mean follow-up of 13.5 years, 2,843 cases of incident T2D were identified. In multivariable-adjusted pooled analyses, no significant associations with T2D were identified for trans/trans-18:2, RR, 95%CI: 1.09 (0.94-1.25), cis/trans-18:2, 0.89 (0.73-1.07), and trans/cis-18:2, 0.87 (0.73-1.03). Trans-16:1n-9, total trans-18:1, and total trans-18:2 were inversely associated with T2D (RR, 95%CI: 0.81, 0.67-0.99; 0.86, 0.75-0.99; and 0.84, 0.74-0.96, respectively). Findings were not significantly different according to pre-specified sources of potential heterogeneity (each P ≥0.1). Conclusion: Circulating individual trans-18:2 TFA biomarkers were not associated with risk of T2D, while trans-16:1n-9, total trans-18:1, and total trans-18:2 were inversely associated. Findings may reflect the influence of mixed TFA sources (industrial vs. natural ruminant), a general decline in TFA exposure due to policy changes during this period, or the relatively limited range of TFA levels.

EPIC-CVD was supported by the European Commission Framework Programme 7 (HEALTH-F2-2012-279233), and the European Research Council (268834). The coordinating center was supported by core funding from the: United Kingdom MRC (G0800270; MR/L003120/1), British Heart Foundation (BHF) (SP/09/002; RG13/13/30194; RG/18/13/33946), and National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Cambridge Biomedical Research Centre (BRC) (BRC-1215-20014).* The establishment of the study subcohort was supported by the European Union Sixth Framework Programme (grant LSHM_CT_ 2006_037197 to the InterAct project) and the MRC Epidemiology Unit (grant MC_UU_00006/1). The coordination of EPIC is financially supported by International Agency for Research on Cancer and also by the Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, which has additional infrastructure support provided by NIHR Imperial BRC. The national cohorts are supported by: Danish Cancer Society (Denmark); Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (France); German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam-Rehbruecke, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany); Associazione Italiana per la Ricerca sul Cancro--AIRC--Italy, Compagnia di SanPaolo and National Research Council (Italy); Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports, Netherlands Cancer Registry, LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Zorg Onderzoek Nederland, World Cancer Research Fund, Statistics Netherlands (the Netherlands); Health Research Fund-Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Regional Governments of Andalucia, Asturias, Basque Country, Murcia and Navarra, and the Catalan Institute of Oncology (Spain); Swedish Cancer Society, Swedish Research Council and County Councils of Skane and Vasterbotten (Sweden); Cancer Research UK (14136 to EPIC-Norfolk; C8221/A29017 to EPIC-Oxford), MRC (1000143 to EPIC-Norfolk; MR/M012190/1 to EPIC-Oxford) (United Kingdom). EPIC-Greece was supported by the Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece). M.S., N.J.W., N.G.F., and F.I. acknowledge support from MRC Epidemiology Unit (MC_UU_ 00006/1 and MC_UU_00006/3). N.J.W. and N.G.F. acknowledge support from NIHR* Cambridge BRC: Nutrition, Diet, and Lifestyle Research Theme (IS-BRC-1215--20014) and NGF is a NIHR Senior Investigator Award holder. M.S. was also supported by BHF for part of this work while working in the BHF Cardiovascular Epidemiology Unit, Department of Public Health and Primary Care, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom. R. Z.-R. thanks the "Miguel Servet" program (CP15/00100) from the Institute of Health Carlos III (co-funded by the European Social Fund--European Social Fund Investing in Your Future). A.W. was supported by a BHF-Turing Cardiovascular Data Science Award and by the European Commission-Innovative Medicines Initiative (BigData@Heart).R.C.was funded by a MRC-Newton project grant to study genetic risk factors of cardiovascular disease among Southeast Asian people and the Academy of Sciences Malaysia (grant no. MR/P013880/1) and a United Kingdom Research and Innovation-Global Challenges Research Fund Project Grant to study risk factors of noncommunicable diseases in Bangladesh. J.D. holds a BHF Professorship and a NIHR Senior Investigator Award. The views expressed are those of the author(s) and not necessarily those of the NIHR or the Department of Health and Social Care. Where authors are identified as personnel of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization, the authors alone are responsible for the views expressed in this article and they do not necessarily represent the decisions, policy, or views of the International Agency for Research on Cancer/World Health Organization. The funders of the study had no role in study design, data collection, analysis, data interpretation, or writing of the article, or in the decision to submit for publication. M.S. had full access to all the data in the study, and M.S. and N.G.F. had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication., BACKGROUND: There is controversy about associations between total dietary fatty acids, their classes (saturated fatty acids [SFAs], monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids), and risk of coronary heart disease (CHD). Specifically, the relevance of food sources of SFAs to CHD associations is uncertain. METHODS AND RESULTS: We conducted a case-cohort study involving 10 529 incident CHD cases and a random subcohort of 16 730 adults selected from a cohort of 385 747 participants in 9 countries of the EPIC (European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition) study. We estimated multivariable adjusted country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs per 5% of energy intake from dietary fatty acids, with and without isocaloric macronutrient substitutions, using Prentice-weighted Cox regression models and pooled results using random-effects meta-analysis. We found no evidence for associations of the consumption of total or fatty acid classes with CHD, regardless of macronutrient substitutions. In analyses considering food sources, CHD incidence was lower per 1% higher energy intake of SFAs from yogurt (HR, 0.93 [95% CI, 0.88–0.99]), cheese (HR, 0.98 [95% CI, 0.96–1.00]), and fish (HR, 0.87 [95% CI, 0.75–1.00]), but higher for SFAs from red meat (HR, 1.07 [95% CI, 1.02–1.12]) and butter (HR, 1.02 [95% CI, 1.00–1.04]). CONCLUSIONS: This observational study found no strong associations of total fatty acids, SFAs, monounsaturated fatty acids, and polyunsaturated fatty acids, with incident CHD. By contrast, we found associations of SFAs with CHD in opposite directions dependent on the food source. These findings should be further confirmed, but support public health recommendations to consider food sources alongside the macronutrients they contain, and suggest the importance of the overall food matrix., European Commission Framework Programme 7 HEALTH-F2-2012-279233, European Research Council (ERC), European Commission 268834, UK Research & Innovation (UKRI), Medical Research Council UK (MRC) G0800270 MR/L003120/1, British Heart Foundation SP/09/002 RG13/13/30194 RG/18/13/33946, National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) BRC-1215-20014, European Commission LSHM_CT_ 2006_037197, Medical Research Council UK (MRC) MC_UU_ 00006/1 MC_UU_00006/3, International Agency for Research on Cancer, Department of Epidemiology and Biostatistics, School of Public Health, Imperial College London, Danish Cancer Society, Ligue Contre le Cancer, Institut Gustave Roussy, Mutuelle Generale de l'Education Nationale, Institut National de la Sante et de la Recherche Medicale (France), German Cancer Aid, German Cancer Research Center, German Institute of Human Nutrition Potsdam, Rehbruecke, Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Fondazione AIRC per la ricerca sul cancro, Compagnia di San Paolo, Dutch Ministry of Public Health, Welfare and Sports, Netherlands Cancer Registry, LK Research Funds, Dutch Prevention Funds, Zorg Onderzoek Nederland, World Cancer Research Fund International (WCRF), Netherlands Government, Instituto de Salud Carlos III, Junta de Andalucia, Regional Government of Asturias, Basque Government, Regional Government of Murcia, Regional Government of Navarra, Catalan Institute of Oncology (Spain), Swedish Cancer Society, County Council of Skane (Sweden), County Council of Vasterbotten (Sweden), Cancer Research UK 14136 C8221/A29017, Medical Research Council UK (MRC) 1000143 MR/M012190/1, Hellenic Health Foundation (Greece), NIHR* Cambridge BRC: Nutrition, Diet, and Lifestyle Research Theme IS-BRC-1215-20014, British Heart Foundation, Institute of Health Carlos III (European Social Fund-European Social Fund Investing in Your Future) CP15/00100, BHF-Turing Cardiovascular Data Science Award, European Commission-Innovative Medicines Initiative (BigData@Heart), MRC-Newton project grant MR/P013880/1, United Kingdom Research and Innovation-Global Challenges Research Fund, NIHR Senior Investigator Award

OBJECTIVE: Prospective associations between n-3 fatty acid biomarkers and type 2 diabetes (T2D) risk are not consistent in individual studies. We aimed to summarize the prospective associations of biomarkers of α-linolenic acid (ALA), eicosapentaenoic acid (EPA), docosapentaenoic acid (DPA), and docosahexaenoic acid (DHA) with T2D risk through an individual participant-level pooled analysis. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: For our analysis we incorporated data from a global consortium of 20 prospective studies from 14 countries. We included 65,147 participants who had blood measurements of ALA, EPA, DPA, or DHA and were free of diabetes at baseline. De novo harmonized analyses were performed in each cohort following a prespecified protocol, and cohort-specific associations were pooled using inverse variance-weighted meta-analysis. RESULTS: A total of 16,693 incident T2D cases were identified during follow-up (median follow-up ranging from 2.5 to 21.2 years). In pooled multivariable analysis, per interquintile range (difference between the 90th and 10th percentiles for each fatty acid), EPA, DPA, DHA, and their sum were associated with lower T2D incidence, with hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% CIs of 0.92 (0.87, 0.96), 0.79 (0.73, 0.85), 0.82 (0.76, 0.89), and 0.81 (0.75, 0.88), respectively (all P < 0.001). ALA was not associated with T2D (HR 0.97 [95% CI 0.92, 1.02]) per interquintile range. Associations were robust across prespecified subgroups as well as in sensitivity analyses. CONCLUSIONS: Higher circulating biomarkers of seafood-derived n-3 fatty acids, including EPA, DPA, DHA, and their sum, were associated with lower risk of T2D in a global consortium of prospective studies. The biomarker of plant-derived ALA was not significantly associated with T2D risk.

OBJECTIVE There is sparse evidence for the association of suitable food substitutions for red and processed meat on the risk of type 2 diabetes. We modeled the association between replacing red and processed meat with other protein sources and the risk of type 2 diabetes and estimated its population impact. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The European Prospective Investigation into Cancer (EPIC)-InterAct case cohort included 11,741 individuals with type 2 diabetes and a subcohort of 15,450 participants in eight countries. We modeled the replacement of self-reported red and processed meat with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, cheese, cereals, yogurt, milk, and nuts. Country-specific hazard ratios (HRs) for incident type 2 diabetes were estimated by Prentice-weighted Cox regression and pooled using random-effects meta-analysis. RESULTS There was a lower hazard for type 2 diabetes for the modeled replacement of red and processed meat (50 g/day) with cheese (HR 0.90, 95% CI 0.83–0.97) (30 g/day), yogurt (0.90, 0.86–0.95) (70 g/day), nuts (0.90, 0.84–0.96) (10 g/day), or cereals (0.92, 0.88–0.96) (30 g/day) but not for replacements with poultry, fish, eggs, legumes, or milk. If a causal association is assumed, replacing red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, or nuts could prevent 8.8%, 8.3%, or 7.5%, respectively, of new cases of type 2 diabetes. CONCLUSIONS Replacement of red and processed meat with cheese, yogurt, nuts, or cereals was associated with a lower rate of type 2 diabetes. Substituting red and processed meat by other protein sources may contribute to the prevention of incident type 2 diabetes in European populations.

Objective To investigate the association of plasma vitamin C and carotenoids, as indicators of fruit and vegetable intake, with the risk of type 2 diabetes. Design Prospective case-cohort study. Setting Populations from eight European countries. Participants 9754 participants with incident type 2 diabetes, and a subcohort of 13 662 individuals from the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC) cohort of 340 234 participants: EPIC-InterAct case-cohort study. Main outcome measure Incident type 2 diabetes. Results In a multivariable adjusted model, higher plasma vitamin C was associated with a lower risk of developing type 2 diabetes (hazard ratio per standard deviation 0.82, 95% confidence interval 0.76 to 0.89). A similar inverse association was shown for total carotenoids (hazard ratio per standard deviation 0.75, 0.68 to 0.82). A composite biomarker score (split into five equal groups), comprising vitamin C and individual carotenoids, was inversely associated with type 2 diabetes with hazard ratios 0.77, 0.66, 0.59, and 0.50 for groups 2-5 compared with group 1 (the lowest group). Self-reported median fruit and vegetable intake was 274 g/day, 396 g/day, and 508 g/day for participants in categories defined by groups 1, 3, and 5 of the composite biomarker score, respectively. One standard deviation difference in the composite biomarker score, equivalent to a 66 (95% confidence interval 61 to 71) g/day difference in total fruit and vegetable intake, was associated with a hazard ratio of 0.75 (0.67 to 0.83). This would be equivalent to an absolute risk reduction of 0.95 per 1000 person years of follow up if achieved across an entire population with the characteristics of the eight European countries included in this analysis. Conclusions These findings indicate an inverse association between plasma vitamin C, carotenoids, and their composite biomarker score, and incident type 2 diabetes in different European countries. These biomarkers are objective indicators of fruit and vegetable consumption, and suggest that diets rich in even modestly higher fruit and vegetable consumption could help to prevent development of type 2 diabetes.

Epigenetic changes may contribute substantially to risks of diseases of aging. Previous studies reported seven methylation variable positions (MVPs) robustly associated with incident type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). However, their causal roles in T2DM are unclear. In an incident T2DM case-cohort study nested within the population-based European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort, we used whole blood DNA collected at baseline, up to 11 years before T2DM onset, to investigate the role of methylation in the etiology of T2DM. We identified 15 novel MVPs with robust associations with incident T2DM and robustly confirmed three MVPs identified previously (near to TXNIP, ABCG1, and SREBF1). All 18 MVPs showed directionally consistent associations with incident and prevalent T2DM in independent studies. Further conditional analyses suggested that the identified epigenetic signals appear related to T2DM via glucose and obesity-related pathways acting before the collection of baseline samples. We integrated genome-wide genetic data to identify methylation-associated quantitative trait loci robustly associated with 16 of the 18 MVPs and found one MVP, cg00574958 at CPT1A, with a possible direct causal role in T2DM. None of the implicated genes were previously highlighted by genetic association studies, suggesting that DNA methylation studies may reveal novel biological mechanisms involved in tissue responses to glycemia.

OBJECTIVE To estimate the causal association between intake of dairy products and incident type 2 diabetes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS The analysis included 21,820 European individuals (9,686 diabetes cases) of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study. Participants were genotyped, and rs4988235 (LCT-12910C>T), a single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) for lactase persistence (LP) that enables digestion of dairy sugar, i.e., lactose, was imputed. Baseline dietary intakes were assessed with diet questionnaires. We investigated the associations between imputed SNP dosage for rs4988235 and intake of dairy products and other foods through linear regression. Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates for the milk-diabetes relationship were obtained through a two-stage least squares regression. RESULTS Each additional LP allele was associated with a higher intake of milk (β 17.1 g/day, 95% CI 10.6–23.6) and milk beverages (β 2.8 g/day, 95% CI 1.0–4.5) but not with intake of other dairy products. Other dietary intakes associated with rs4988235 included fruits (β −7.0 g/day, 95% CI −12.4 to −1.7 per additional LP allele), nonalcoholic beverages (β −18.0 g/day, 95% CI −34.4 to −1.6), and wine (β −4.8 g/day, 95% CI −9.1 to −0.6). In instrumental variable analysis, LP-associated milk intake was not associated with diabetes (hazard ratioper 15 g/day 0.99, 95% CI 0.93–1.05). CONCLUSIONS rs4988235 was associated with milk intake but not with intake of other dairy products. This MR study does not suggest that milk intake is associated with diabetes, which is consistent with previous observational and genetic associations. LP may be associated with intake of other foods as well, but owing to the modest associations, we consider it unlikely that this caused the observed null result.

Circulating levels of glycine have previously been associated with lower incidence of coronary heart disease (CHD) and type 2 diabetes (T2D) but it remains uncertain if glycine plays an aetiological role. We present a meta-analysis of genome-wide association studies for glycine in 80,003 participants and investigate the causality and potential mechanisms of the association between glycine and cardio-metabolic diseases using genetic approaches. We identify 27 genetic loci, of which 22 have not previously been reported for glycine. We show that glycine is genetically associated with lower CHD risk and find that this may be partly driven by blood pressure. Evidence for a genetic association of glycine with T2D is weaker, but we find a strong inverse genetic effect of hyperinsulinaemia on glycine. Our findings strengthen evidence for a protective effect of glycine on CHD and show that the glycine-T2D association may be driven by a glycine-lowering effect of insulin resistance., Epidemiological studies have associated circulating levels of the amino acid glycine with cardiometabolic outcomes. Here, in a genome-wide meta-analysis of 80,003 individuals, Wittemans et al. identify 22 novel genetic loci for glycine and find a causal relationship with coronary heart disease using MR.

Fetuin-A, a hepatic-origin protein, is strongly positively associated with risk of type 2 diabetes in human observational studies, but it is unknown whether this association is causal. We aimed to study the potential causal relation of circulating fetuin-A to risk of type 2 diabetes in a Mendelian randomization study with single nucleotide polymorphisms located in the fetuin-A–encoding AHSG gene. We used data from eight European countries of the European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition (EPIC)-InterAct case-cohort study including 10,020 incident cases. Plasma fetuin-A concentration was measured in a subset of 965 subcohort participants and 654 case subjects. A genetic score of the AHSG single nucleotide polymorphisms was strongly associated with fetuin-A (28% explained variation). Using the genetic score as instrumental variable of fetuin-A, we observed no significant association of a 50 µg/mL higher fetuin-A concentration with diabetes risk (hazard ratio 1.02 [95% CI 0.97, 1.07]). Combining our results with those from the DIAbetes Genetics Replication And Meta-analysis (DIAGRAM) consortium (12,171 case subjects) also did not suggest a clear significant relation of fetuin-A with diabetes risk. In conclusion, although there is mechanistic evidence for an effect of fetuin-A on insulin sensitivity and secretion, this study does not support a strong, relevant relationship between circulating fetuin-A and diabetes risk in the general population.

The dietary approaches to stop hypertension (DASH) diet could be an important population-level strategy to reduce cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the UK, but there is little UK-based evidence on this diet pattern in relation to CVD risk. We tested whether dietary accordance with DASH was associated with risk of CVD in a population-based sample of 23,655 UK adults. This prospective analysis of the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study analysed dietary intake (assessed using a validated food frequency questionnaire) to measure accordance with DASH, based on intakes of eight food groups and nutrients, ranking the sample into quintiles. Cox proportional hazards regression models tested for association between DASH accordance and incident stroke, ischemic heart disease (IHD) and total incident CVD (stroke and IHD only), as well as CVD mortality, non-CVD mortality and total mortality. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated adjusting for age, sex, behavioral and clinical risk factors and socioeconomic status. Over an average of 12.4 years follow-up, we ascertained 4129 incident CVD events, of which stroke accounted for 1011. Compared to participants with the least DASH-accordant diets, those with the most DASH-accordant diets had 20% lower risk of incident stroke (HR, 95% CI 0.80, 0.65-0.99) and 13% lower risk of total incident CVD (0.88, 0.79-0.99) but no lower risk of CHD (0.90, 0.79-1.02). CVD-related mortality also showed strong inverse associations with DASH accordance (0.72, 0.60-0.85). This study provides evidence for the cardioprotective effects of DASH diet in a UK context.

Background We aimed to investigate prospective associations of circulating or adipose tissue odd-chain fatty acids 15:0 and 17:0 and trans-palmitoleic acid, t16:1n-7, as potential biomarkers of dairy fat intake, with incident type 2 diabetes (T2D). Methods and findings Sixteen prospective cohorts from 12 countries (7 from the United States, 7 from Europe, 1 from Australia, 1 from Taiwan) performed new harmonised individual-level analysis for the prospective associations according to a standardised plan. In total, 63,682 participants with a broad range of baseline ages and BMIs and 15,180 incident cases of T2D over the average of 9 years of follow-up were evaluated. Study-specific results were pooled using inverse-variance–weighted meta-analysis. Prespecified interactions by age, sex, BMI, and race/ethnicity were explored in each cohort and were meta-analysed. Potential heterogeneity by cohort-specific characteristics (regions, lipid compartments used for fatty acid assays) was assessed with metaregression. After adjustment for potential confounders, including measures of adiposity (BMI, waist circumference) and lipogenesis (levels of palmitate, triglycerides), higher levels of 15:0, 17:0, and t16:1n-7 were associated with lower incidence of T2D. In the most adjusted model, the hazard ratio (95% CI) for incident T2D per cohort-specific 10th to 90th percentile range of 15:0 was 0.80 (0.73–0.87); of 17:0, 0.65 (0.59–0.72); of t16:1n7, 0.82 (0.70–0.96); and of their sum, 0.71 (0.63–0.79). In exploratory analyses, similar associations for 15:0, 17:0, and the sum of all three fatty acids were present in both genders but stronger in women than in men (pinteraction < 0.001). Whereas studying associations with biomarkers has several advantages, as limitations, the biomarkers do not distinguish between different food sources of dairy fat (e.g., cheese, yogurt, milk), and residual confounding by unmeasured or imprecisely measured confounders may exist. Conclusions In a large meta-analysis that pooled the findings from 16 prospective cohort studies, higher levels of 15:0, 17:0, and t16:1n-7 were associated with a lower risk of T2D., Fumiaki Imamura and colleagues reveal a correlation between higher levels of circulating and adipose odd-chain fatty and trans-palmitoleic acids and lower risk of developing diabetes., Author summary Why was this study done? Effects of dairy fat on type 2 diabetes (T2D) are not well established. While dairy fat contains palmitic acid that could increase risk of T2D, it also contains several other types of fatty acids and further reflects specific foods, such as cheese or yogurt, that could reduce risk. Most prior studies of dairy foods and T2D have relied on self-reported dietary questionnaires, which may have errors or bias in memory as well as challenges in assessing less apparent sources of dairy fat such as in creams, sauces, cheeses, and cooking fats in mixed meals and prepared foods. Circulating and tissue biomarker concentrations of odd-chain saturated fats (15:0, 17:0) and natural ruminant trans-fats (trans-16:1n7) at least partly reflect dairy fat consumption, help capture multiple dietary sources without relying on memory or subjective reporting, and reflect a complementary approach to investigate associations with T2D. A consortium strategy combining all available studies maximises statistical power and generalizability, allows standardised analytical approaches and methods including of key population subgroups, and minimises potential for publication bias. What did the researchers do and find? We conducted a consortium project to pool new participant-level analyses of 16 cohort studies as part of the Fatty Acids and Outcomes Research Consortium (FORCE), including a total of 63,682 adults free of T2D at baseline, among whom 15,158 developed incident T2D over up to 20 years of follow-up. Participating studies conducted standardised analysis of the prospective associations between fatty acid biomarkers (15:0, 17:0, trans-16:1n7, and their sum) and the risk of developing T2D. Pooling all studies, each of the biomarkers and their sum were associated with lower risk of developing T2D, independently of major risk factors for T2D, including age, sex, race/ethnicity, socioeconomic status, physical activity, and obesity. For example, for the sum of these biomarkers, participants with higher levels experienced 29% (95% CI 21% to 37%) lower risk of T2D than adults with lower levels, comparing between the midpoints of the top fifth and the bottom fifth of concentrations. What do these findings mean? Higher circulating and tissue concentrations of odd-chain saturated fats and a natural ruminant trans-fat are associated with lower risk of T2D. While these biomarkers are known to reflect dairy fat consumption, their levels could also be influenced by other unknown factors. The findings support the need for investigation of determinants of levels of these fatty acids as well as health effects of dairy fat in interventional studies. Despite the several advantages of evaluating fatty acid biomarkers, the results cannot distinguish between different types of dairy foods (e.g., milk, cheese, yogurt, others), which could have differential effects. The findings provide the strongest evidence to date for relationships of these fatty acid biomarkers with T2D, informing the potential health effects and corresponding dietary recommendations for consumption of selected dairy products.

Background In the United Kingdom, the Food Standards Agency-Ofcom nutrient profiling model (FSA-Ofcom model) is used to define less-healthy foods that cannot be advertised to children. However, there has been limited investigation of whether less-healthy foods defined by this model are associated with prospective health outcomes. The objective of this study was to test whether consumption of less-healthy food as defined by the FSA-Ofcom model is associated with cardiovascular disease (CVD). Methods and findings We used data from the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk cohort study in adults (n = 25,639) aged 40–79 years who completed a 7-day diet diary between 1993 and 1997. Incident CVD (primary outcome), cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality (secondary outcomes) were identified using record linkage to hospital admissions data and death certificates up to 31 March 2015. Each food and beverage item reported was coded and given a continuous score, using the FSA-Ofcom model, based on the consumption of energy; saturated fat; total sugar; sodium; nonsoluble fibre; protein; and fruits, vegetables, and nuts. Items were classified as less-healthy using Ofcom regulation thresholds. We used Cox proportional hazards regression to test for an association between consumption of less-healthy food and incident CVD. Sensitivity analyses explored whether the results differed based on the definition of the exposure. Analyses were adjusted for age, sex, behavioural risk factors, clinical risk factors, and socioeconomic status. Participants were followed up for a mean of 16.4 years. During follow-up, there were 4,965 incident cases of CVD (1,524 fatal within 30 days). In the unadjusted analyses, we observed an association between consumption of less-healthy food and incident CVD (test for linear trend over quintile groups, p < 0.01). After adjustment for covariates (sociodemographic, behavioural, and indices of cardiovascular risk), we found no association between consumption of less-healthy food and incident CVD (p = 0.84) or cardiovascular mortality (p = 0.90), but there was an association between consumption of less-healthy food and all-cause mortality (test for linear trend, p = 0.006; quintile group 5, highest consumption of less-healthy food, versus quintile group 1, HR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.02–1.20). Sensitivity analyses produced similar results. The study is observational and relies on self-report of dietary consumption. Despite adjustment for known and reported confounders, residual confounding is possible. Conclusions After adjustment for potential confounding factors, no significant association between consumption of less-healthy food (as classified by the FSA-Ofcom model) and CVD was observed in this study. This suggests, in the UK setting, that the FSA-Ofcom model is not consistently discriminating among foods with respect to their association with CVD. More studies are needed to understand better the relationship between consumption of less-healthy food, defined by the FSA-Ofcom model, and indices of health., Using data from the EPIC-Norfolk cohort study, Oliver Mytton and colleagues examine the association between intake of less healthy foods defined by the UK's nutrient profile model and cardiovascular disease., Author summary Why was this study done? The Food Standards Agency (FSA)-Ofcom model is used in the UK to identify ‘less-healthy’ foods in order to restrict their advertising to children. Variants of the FSA-Ofcom model, as well as other nutrient profiling models, are increasingly being used to regulate food retailing or marketing for the purposes of improving health; yet, very few of these models have been validated. The FSA-Ofcom model has been shown to classify foods in a way that is consistent with professional opinion, but there has been limited assessment of its association with health outcomes. What did the researchers do and find? We used the European Prospective Investigation of Cancer (EPIC)-Norfolk study to test the prospective association of less-healthy food consumption with incident cardiovascular disease, cardiovascular mortality, and all-cause mortality. Each item of food or drink reported in a participant’s 7-day diet diary was given a score based on its nutrient composition and then categorised as either ‘less-healthy’ or ‘healthy’. Participants (n = 22,292) were allocated to 1 of 5 groups based on their consumption of less-healthy food (as a proportion of total dietary energy). After adjustment for confounding factors, we found no association between consumption of less-healthy food and incident cardiovascular disease (n = 4,965) or cardiovascular mortality (n = 2,555) The findings were robust to a variety of sensitivity analyses, including adjustment for exclusion based on different cardiovascular risk factors. What do these findings mean? Whilst no single study is definitive and our findings are in contrast to similar work in a French cohort, these findings suggest that the FSA-Ofcom model is not consistently discriminating among foods with respect to their associations with cardiovascular disease in the UK context. Public health officials and scientists may want to review whether and how the FSA-Ofcom scoring system could be improved for use in the UK and elsewhere. There is a robust evidence base concerning the health risks associated with the consumption of many foods that are often labelled ‘unhealthy’ (e.g., red meat, sugar-sweetened beverages, and takeaway food), and it would be inappropriate to use this study to undermine present dietary advice for the public.

Background: Many genetic variants show highly robust associations with body mass index (BMI). However, the mechanisms through which genetic susceptibility to obesity operates are not well understood. Potentially modifiable mechanisms, including eating behaviors, are of particular interest to public health.Objective: Here we explore whether eating behaviors mediate or modify genetic susceptibility to obesity.Design: Genetic risk scores for BMI (BMI-GRSs) were calculated for 3515 and 2154 adults in the Fenland and EDEN (Etude des determinants pre et postnatals de la sante et du developpement de l'enfant) population-based cohort studies, respectively. The eating behaviors-emotional eating, uncontrolled eating, and cognitive restraint-were measured through the use of a validated questionnaire. The mediating effect of each eating behavior on the association between the BMI-GRS and measured BMI was assessed by using the Sobel test. In addition, we tested for interactions between each eating behavior and the BMI-GRS on BMI.Results: The association between the BMI-GRS and BMI was mediated by both emotional eating (EDEN: P-Sobel = 0.01; Fenland: P-Sobel = 0.02) and uncontrolled eating (EDEN: P-Sobel = 0.04; Fenland: P-Sobel = 0.0006) in both sexes combined. Cognitive restraint did not mediate this association (P-Sobel > 0.10), except among EDEN women (P-Sobel = 0.0009). Cognitive restraint modified the relation between the BMI-GRS and BMI among men (EDEN: P-interaction = 0.0001; Fenland: P-interaction = 0.04) and Fenland women (P-interaction = 0.0004). By tertiles of cognitive restraint, the association between the BMI-GRS and BMI was strongest in the lowest tertile of cognitive restraint, and weakest in the highest tertile.Conclusions: Genetic susceptibility to obesity was partially mediated by the "appetitive" eating behavior traits (uncontrolled and emotional eating) and, in 3 of the 4 population groups studied, was modified by cognitive restraint. High levels of cognitive control over eating appear to attenuate the genetic susceptibility to obesity. Future research into interventions designed to support restraint may help to protect genetically susceptible individuals from weight gain.