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The effectiveness of the BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines against new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections requires continuous re-evaluation, given the increasingly dominant B.1.617.2 (Delta) variant. In this study, we investigated the effectiveness of these vaccines in a large, community-based survey of randomly selected households across the United Kingdom. We found that the effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 against infections (new polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-positive cases) with symptoms or high viral burden is reduced with the B.1.617.2 variant (absolute difference of 10–13% for BNT162b2 and 16% for ChAdOx1) compared to the B.1.1.7 (Alpha) variant. The effectiveness of two doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection. The dynamics of immunity after second doses differed significantly between BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, with greater initial effectiveness against new PCR-positive cases but faster declines in protection against high viral burden and symptomatic infection with BNT162b2. There was no evidence that effectiveness varied by dosing interval, but protection was higher in vaccinated individuals after a prior infection and in younger adults. With B.1.617.2, infections occurring after two vaccinations had similar peak viral burden as those in unvaccinated individuals. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination still reduces new infections, but effectiveness and attenuation of peak viral burden are reduced with B.1.617.2., A large, community-based study in the United Kingdom indicates that the effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1 vaccines against SARS-CoV-2 infections with symptoms or high viral burden is reduced with the Delta variant compared to the Alpha variant.

The effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in preventing new severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections in the general community is still unclear. Here, we used the Office for National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey—a large community-based survey of individuals living in randomly selected private households across the United Kingdom—to assess the effectiveness of the BNT162b2 (Pfizer–BioNTech) and ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 (Oxford–AstraZeneca; ChAdOx1) vaccines against any new SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive tests, split according to self-reported symptoms, cycle threshold value (, Results from the Office of National Statistics COVID-19 Infection Survey in the United Kingdom demonstrate that the ChAdOx1 nCoV-19 and BNT162b2 vaccines reduce the incidence of new SARS-CoV-2 infections by up to 65% with a single dose and up to 80% after two doses, with no significant differences in efficacy observed between the two vaccines.

Background The relationship between the presence of antibodies to severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) and the risk of subsequent reinfection remains unclear. Methods We investigated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 infection confirmed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in seropositive and seronegative health care workers attending testing of asymptomatic and symptomatic staff at Oxford University Hospitals in the United Kingdom. Baseline antibody status was determined by anti-spike (primary analysis) and anti-nucleocapsid IgG assays, and staff members were followed for up to 31 weeks. We estimated the relative incidence of PCR-positive test results and new symptomatic infection according to antibody status, adjusting for age, participant-reported gender, and changes in incidence over time. Results A total of 12,541 health care workers participated and had anti-spike IgG measured; 11,364 were followed up after negative antibody results and 1265 after positive results, including 88 in whom seroconversion occurred during follow-up. A total of 223 anti-spike–seronegative health care workers had a positive PCR test (1.09 per 10,000 days at risk), 100 during screening while they were asymptomatic and 123 while symptomatic, whereas 2 anti-spike–seropositive health care workers had a positive PCR test (0.13 per 10,000 days at risk), and both workers were asymptomatic when tested (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 0.11; 95% confidence interval, 0.03 to 0.44; P=0.002). There were no symptomatic infections in workers with anti-spike antibodies. Rate ratios were similar when the anti-nucleocapsid IgG assay was used alone or in combination with the anti-spike IgG assay to determine baseline status. Conclusions The presence of anti-spike or anti-nucleocapsid IgG antibodies was associated with a substantially reduced risk of SARS-CoV-2 reinfection in the ensuing 6 months. (Funded by the U.K. Government Department of Health and Social Care and others.)

Background The incidence of bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae is increasing, with substantial associated morbidity, mortality, and antimicrobial resistance. Unbiased serotyping studies to guide vaccine target selection are limited. Methods We conducted unselected, population-level genomic surveillance of bloodstream E. coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates from 2008 to 2018 in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom. We supplemented this with an analysis of publicly available global sequencing data (n = 3678). Results We sequenced 3478 E. coli isolates (3278 passed quality control) and 556 K. pneumoniae isolates (535 [K-antigen] and 549 [O-antigen] passed quality control). The 4 most common E. coli O-antigens (O1/O2/O6/O25) were identified in 1499/3278 isolates; the incidence of these O-types increased over time (incidence rate ratio per year [IRRy] = 1.14, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.11–1.16). These O-types accounted for 616/1434 multidrug-resistant (MDR) and 173/256 extended-spectrum beta-lactamase (ESBL)-resistant isolates in Oxfordshire but only 19/90 carbapenem-resistant isolates across all studies. For Klebsiella pneumoniae, the most common O-antigens (O2v2/O1v1/O3b/O1v2) accounted for 410/549 isolates; the incidence of BSIs caused by these also increased annually (IRRy = 1.09; 95% CI: 1.05–1.12). These O-types accounted for 122/148 MDR and 106/123 ESBL isolates in Oxfordshire and 557/734 carbapenem-resistant isolates across all studies. Conversely we observed substantial capsular antigen diversity. Analysis of 3678 isolates from global studies demonstrated the generalizability of these findings. For E. coli, based on serotyping, the ExPEC4V and ExPEC10V vaccines under investigation would cover 46% and 72% of Oxfordshire isolates respectively, and 47% and 71% of MDR isolates. Conclusions O-antigen targeted vaccines may be useful in reducing the morbidity, mortality, and antimicrobial resistance associated with E. coli and K. pneumoniae BSIs., A large, unselected, 10-year sequencing-based serotype analysis of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae-associated bloodstream infections (BSIs) (Oxfordshire, UK [n~3827] plus available global sequences [n = 3678]). This strongly supports further development of effective O-antigen-targeted vaccines, which could substantially reduce BSIs and antimicrobial resistance.

Objectives We systematically reviewed studies using wastewater for AMR surveillance in human populations, to determine: (i) evidence of concordance between wastewater-human AMR prevalence estimates, and (ii) methodological approaches which optimised identifying such an association, and which could be recommended as standard. We used Lin’s concordance correlation coefficient (CCC) to quantify concordance between AMR prevalence estimates in wastewater and human compartments (where CCC = 1 reflects perfect concordance), and logistic regression to identify study features (e.g. sampling methods) associated with high agreement studies (defined as >70% of within-study wastewater-human AMR prevalence comparisons within ±10%). Results Of 8,867 records and 441 full-text methods reviewed, 33 studies were included. AMR prevalence data was extractable from 24 studies conducting phenotypic-only (n = 7), genotypic-only (n = 1) or combined (n = 16) AMR detection. Overall concordance of wastewater-human AMR prevalence estimates was reasonably high for both phenotypic (CCC = 0.85 [95% CI 0.8–0.89]) and genotypic approaches (CCC = 0.88 (95% CI 0.84–0.9)) despite diverse study designs, bacterial species investigated and phenotypic/genotypic targets. No significant relationships between methodological approaches and high agreement studies were identified using logistic regression; however, this was limited by inconsistent reporting of study features, significant heterogeneity in approaches and limited sample size. Based on a secondary, descriptive synthesis, studies conducting composite sampling of wastewater influent, longitudinal sampling >12 months, and time-/location-matched sampling of wastewater and human compartments generally had higher agreement. Conclusion Wastewater-based surveillance of AMR appears promising, with high overall concordance between wastewater and human AMR prevalence estimates in studies irrespective of heterogenous approaches. However, our review suggests future work would benefit from: time-/location-matched sampling of wastewater and human populations, composite sampling of influent, and sampling >12 months for longitudinal studies. Further research and clear and consistent reporting of study methods is required to identify optimal practice.

Healthcare-associated infection, Principles of antimicrobial prescribing, Antimicrobial resistance

Summary: Background: The global dissemination of colistin resistance encoded by mcr-1 has been attributed to extensive use of colistin in livestock, threatening colistin efficacy in medicine. The emergence of mcr-1 in common pathogens, such as Escherichia coli, is of particular concern. China banned the use of colistin in animal feed from May 1, 2017. We investigated subsequent changes in mcr-1 prevalence in animals, humans, food, and the environment, and the genomic epidemiology of mcr-1-positive E coli (MCRPEC). Methods: Sampling was done before (October to December, 2016) and after (October to December, 2017, and 2018, respectively) the colistin ban. 3675 non-duplicate pig faecal samples were collected from 14 provinces (66 farms) in China to measure intervention-related changes in mcr-1 prevalence. 15 193 samples were collected from pigs, healthy human volunteers, patients colonised or infected with Enterobacteriaceae who were admitted to hospital, food and the environment in Guangzhou, to characterise source-specific mcr-1 prevalence and the wider ecological effect of the ban. From these samples, 688 MCRPEC were analysed with whole genome sequencing, plasmid conjugation, and S1 pulsed-field gel electrophoresis with Southern blots to characterise associated genomic changes. Findings: After the ban, mcr-1 prevalence decreased significantly in national pig farms, from 308 (45%) of 684 samples in 2016 to 274 (19%) of 1416 samples in 2018 (p

The increasing frequency and magnitude of viral outbreaks in recent decades, epitomized by the COVID-19 pandemic, has resulted in an urgent need for rapid and sensitive diagnostic methods. Here, we present a methodology for virus detection and identification that uses a convolutional neural network to distinguish between microscopy images of fluorescently labeled intact particles of different viruses. Our assay achieves labeling, imaging, and virus identification in less than 5 min and does not require any lysis, purification, or amplification steps. The trained neural network was able to differentiate SARS-CoV-2 from negative clinical samples, as well as from other common respiratory pathogens such as influenza and seasonal human coronaviruses. We were also able to differentiate closely related strains of influenza, as well as SARS-CoV-2 variants. Additional and novel pathogens can easily be incorporated into the test through software updates, offering the potential to rapidly utilize the technology in future infectious disease outbreaks or pandemics. Single-particle imaging combined with deep learning therefore offers a promising alternative to traditional viral diagnostic and genomic sequencing methods and has the potential for significant impact.

Funder: Department of Health, Funder: Department of Health & Social Care, BackgroundInformation on SARS-CoV-2 in representative community surveillance is limited, particularly cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load).MethodsWe included all positive nose and throat swabs 26 April 2020 to 13 March 2021 from the UK's national COVID-19 Infection Survey, tested by RT-PCR for the N, S, and ORF1ab genes. We investigated predictors of median Ct value using quantile regression.ResultsOf 3,312,159 nose and throat swabs, 27,902 (0.83%) were RT-PCR-positive, 10,317 (37%), 11,012 (40%), and 6550 (23%) for 3, 2, or 1 of the N, S, and ORF1ab genes, respectively, with median Ct = 29.2 (~215 copies/ml; IQR Ct = 21.9-32.8, 14-56,400 copies/ml). Independent predictors of lower Cts (i.e. higher viral load) included self-reported symptoms and more genes detected, with at most small effects of sex, ethnicity, and age. Single-gene positives almost invariably had Ct > 30, but Cts varied widely in triple-gene positives, including without symptoms. Population-level Cts changed over time, with declining Ct preceding increasing SARS-CoV-2 positivity. Of 6189 participants with IgG S-antibody tests post-first RT-PCR-positive, 4808 (78%) were ever antibody-positive; Cts were significantly higher in those remaining antibody negative.ConclusionsMarked variation in community SARS-CoV-2 Ct values suggests that they could be a useful epidemiological early-warning indicator.FundingDepartment of Health and Social Care, National Institutes of Health Research, Huo Family Foundation, Medical Research Council UK; Wellcome Trust.

ObjectivesTo inform point-of-care test (POCT) development, we quantified the primary care demand for laboratory microbiology tests by describing their frequencies overall, frequencies of positives, most common organisms identified, temporal trends in testing and patterns of cotesting on the same and subsequent dates.DesignRetrospective cohort study.SettingPrimary care practices in Oxfordshire.Participants393 905 patients (65% female; 49% aged 18–49).Primary and secondary outcome measuresThe frequencies of all microbiology tests requested between 2008 and 2018 were quantified. Patterns of cotesting were investigated with heat maps. All analyses were done overall, by sex and age categories.Results1 596 752 microbiology tests were requested. Urine culture±microscopy was the most common of all tests (n=673 612, 42%), was mainly requested without other tests and was the most common test requested in follow-up within 7 and 14 days. Of all urine cultures, 180 047 (27%) were positive and 172 651 (26%) showed mixed growth, and Escherichia coli was the most prevalent organism (132 277, 73% of positive urine cultures). Antenatal urine cultures and blood tests in pregnancy (hepatitis B, HIV and syphilis) formed a common test combination, consistent with their use in antenatal screening.ConclusionsThe greatest burden of microbiology testing in primary care is attributable to urine culture ± microscopy; genital and routine antenatal urine and blood testing are also significant contributors. Further research should focus on the feasibility and impact of POCTs for these specimen types.

ObjectiveTo describe the impact of the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic on the incidence of paediatric viral respiratory tract infection in Oxfordshire, UK.MethodsData on paediatric Emergency Department (ED) attendances (0-15 years inclusive), respiratory virus testing, vital signs and mortality at Oxford University Hospitals were summarised using descriptive statistics.ResultsBetween 1-March-2016 and 30-July-2021, 155,056 ED attendances occurred and 7,195 respiratory virus PCRs were performed. Detection of all pathogens was suppressed during the first national lockdown. Rhinovirus and adenovirus rates increased when schools reopened September-December 2020, then fell, before rising in March-May 2021. The usual winter RSV peak did not occur in 2020/21, with an inter-seasonal rise (32/1,000 attendances in 0-3yr olds) in July 2021. Influenza remained suppressed throughout. A higher Paediatric Early Warning Score (PEWS) was seen for attendees with adenovirus during the pandemic compared to pre-pandemic (p=0.04, Mann-Witney U test), no other differences in PEWS were seen.ConclusionsSARS-CoV-2 caused major changes in the incidence of paediatric respiratory viral infection in Oxfordshire, with implications for clinical service demand, testing strategies, timing of palivizumab RSV prophylaxis, and highlighting the need to understand which public health interventions are most effective for preventing respiratory virus infections.

Enterobacterales from livestock are potentially important reservoirs for antimicrobial resistance (AMR) to pass through the food chain to humans, thereby increasing the AMR burden and affecting our ability to tackle infections. In this study 168 isolates from four genera of the order Enterobacterales , primarily Escherichia coli , were purified from livestock (cattle, pigs and sheep) faeces from 14 farms in the United Kingdom. Their genomes were resolved using long- and short-read sequencing to analyse AMR genes and their genetic context, as well as to explore the relationship between AMR burden and on-farm antimicrobial usage (AMU), in the three months prior to sampling. Although E. coli isolates were genomically diverse, phylogenetic analysis using a core-genome SNP tree indicated pig isolates to generally be distinct from sheep isolates, with cattle isolates being intermediates. Approximately 28 % of isolates harboured AMR genes, with the greatest proportion detected in pigs, followed by cattle then sheep; pig isolates also harboured the highest number of AMR genes per isolate. Although 90 % of sequenced isolates harboured diverse plasmids, only 11 % of plasmids (n=58 out of 522) identified contained AMR genes, with 91 % of AMR plasmids being from pig, 9 % from cattle and none from sheep isolates; these results indicated that pigs were a principle reservoir of AMR genes harboured by plasmids and likely to be involved in their horizontal transfer. Significant associations were observed between AMU (mg kg−1) and AMR. As both the total and the numbers of different antimicrobial classes used on-farm increased, the risk of multi-drug resistance (MDR) in isolates rose. However, even when AMU on pig farms was comparatively low, pig isolates had increased likelihood of being MDR; harbouring relatively more resistances than those from other livestock species. Therefore, our results indicate that AMR prevalence in livestock is not only influenced by recent AMU on-farm but also livestock-related factors, which can influence the AMR burden in these reservoirs and its plasmid mediated transmission.

We investigated anti-spike IgG antibody responses and correlates of protection following second doses of ChAdOx1 or BNT162b2 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines in the UK general population. In 222,493 individuals, we found significant boosting of anti-spike IgG by second doses of both vaccines in all ages and using different dosing intervals, including the 3-week interval for BNT162b2. After second vaccination, BNT162b2 generated higher peak levels than ChAdOX1. Older individuals and males had lower peak levels with BNT162b2 but not ChAdOx1, while declines were similar across ages and sexes with ChAdOX1 or BNT162b2. Prior infection significantly increased antibody peak level and half-life with both vaccines. Anti-spike IgG levels were associated with protection from infection after vaccination and, to an even greater degree, after prior infection. At least 67% protection against infection was estimated to last for 2-3 months after two ChAdOx1 doses and 5-8 months after two BNT162b2 doses in those without prior infection, and 1-2 years for those unvaccinated after natural infection. A third booster dose may be needed, prioritised to ChAdOx1 recipients and those more clinically vulnerable.

BackgroundThe COVID-19 pandemic is rapidly evolving, with emerging variants and fluctuating control policies. Real-time population screening and identification of groups in whom positivity is highest could help monitor spread and inform public health messaging and strategy.MethodsTo develop a real-time screening process, we included results from nose and throat swabs and questionnaires taken 19 July 2020-17 July 2021 in the UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey. Fortnightly, associations between SARS-CoV-2 positivity and 60 demographic and behavioural characteristics were estimated using logistic regression models adjusted for potential confounders, considering multiple testing, collinearity, and reverse causality.FindingsOf 4,091,537 RT-PCR results from 482,677 individuals, 29,903 (0·73%) were positive. As positivity rose September-November 2020, rates were independently higher in younger ages, and those living in Northern England, major urban conurbations, more deprived areas, and larger households. Rates were also higher in those returning from abroad, and working in healthcare or outside of home. When positivity peaked December 2020-January 2021 (Alpha), high positivity shifted to southern geographical regions. With national vaccine roll-out from December 2020, positivity reduced in vaccinated individuals. Associations attenuated as rates decreased between February-May 2021. Rising positivity rates in June-July 2021 (Delta) were independently higher in younger, male, and unvaccinated groups. Few factors were consistently associated with positivity. 25/45 (56%) confirmed associations would have been detected later using 28-day rather than 14-day periods.InterpretationPopulation-level demographic and behavioural surveillance can be a valuable tool in identifying the varying characteristics driving current SARS-CoV-2 positivity, allowing monitoring to inform public health policy.FundingDepartment of Health and Social Care (UK), Welsh Government, Department of Health (on behalf of the Northern Ireland Government), Scottish Government, National Institute for Health Research.

Objectives: Despite robust efforts, patients and staff acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospitals. We investigated whether whole-genome sequencing enhanced the epidemiological investigation of healthcare-associated SARS-CoV-2 acquisition. Methods: From 17-November-2020 to 5-January-2021, 803 inpatients and 329 staff were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection at four Oxfordshire hospitals. We classified cases using epidemiological definitions, looked for a potential source for each nosocomial infection, and evaluated genomic evidence supporting transmission. Results: Using national epidemiological definitions, 109/803(14%) inpatient infections were classified as definite/probable nosocomial, 615(77%) as community-acquired and 79(10%) as indeterminate. There was strong epidemiological evidence to support definite/probable cases as nosocomial. Many indeterminate cases were likely infected in hospital: 53/79(67%) had a prior-negative PCR and 75(95%) contact with a potential source. 89/615(11% of all 803 patients) with apparent community-onset had a recent hospital exposure. Within 764 samples sequenced 607 genomic clusters were identified (>1 SNP distinct). Only 43/607(7%) clusters contained evidence of onward transmission (subsequent cases within ≤ 1 SNP). 20/21 epidemiologically-identified outbreaks contained multiple genomic introductions. Most (80%) nosocomial acquisition occurred in rapid super-spreading events in settings with a mix of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. Conclusions: Current surveillance definitions underestimate nosocomial acquisition. Most nosocomial transmission occurs from a relatively limited number of highly infectious individuals.

BackgroundSeveral community-based studies have assessed the ability of different symptoms to identify COVID-19 infections, but few have compared symptoms over time (reflecting SARS-CoV-2 variants) and by vaccination status.MethodsUsing data and samples collected by the COVID-19 Infection Survey at regular visits to representative households across the UK, we compared symptoms in new PCR-positives and comparator test-negative controls.ResultsFrom 26/4/2020-7/8/2021, 27,869 SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive episodes occurred in 27,692 participants (median 42 years (IQR 22-58)); 13,427 (48%) self-reported symptoms (“symptomatic positive episodes”). The comparator group comprised 3,806,692 test-negative visits (457,215 participants); 130,612 (3%) self-reported symptoms (“symptomatic negative visit”). Reporting of any symptoms in positive episodes varied over calendar time, reflecting changes in prevalence of variants, incidental changes (e.g. seasonal pathogens, schools re-opening) and vaccination roll-out. There was a small increase in sore throat reporting in symptomatic positive episodes and negative visits from April-2021. After May-2021 when Delta emerged there were substantial increases in headache and fever in positives, but not in negatives. Although specific symptom reporting in symptomatic positive episodes vs. negative visits varied by age, sex, and ethnicity, only small improvements in symptom-based infection detection were obtained; e.g. adding fatigue/weakness or all eight symptoms to the classic four symptoms (cough, fever, loss of taste/smell) increased sensitivity from 74% to 81% to 90% but tests per positive from 4.6 to 5.3 to 8.7.ConclusionsWhilst SARS-CoV-2-associated symptoms vary by variant, vaccination status and demographics, differences are modest and do not warrant large-scale changes to targeted testing approaches given resource implications.SummaryWithin the COVID-19 Infection Survey, recruiting representative households across the UK general population, SARS-CoV-2-associated symptoms varied by viral variant, vaccination status and demographics. However, differences are modest and do not currently warrant large-scale changes to targeted testing approaches.

The effectiveness of BNT162b2, ChAdOx1, and mRNA-1273 vaccines against new SARS-CoV-2 infections requires continuous re-evaluation, given the increasingly dominant Delta variant. We investigated the effectiveness of the vaccines in a large community-based survey of randomly selected households across the UK. We found that the effectiveness of BNT162b2 and ChAd0x1 against any infections (new PCR positives) and infections with symptoms or high viral burden is reduced with the Delta variant. A single dose of the mRNA-1273 vaccine had similar or greater effectiveness compared to a single dose of BNT162b2 or ChAdOx1. Effectiveness of two doses remains at least as great as protection afforded by prior natural infection. The dynamics of immunity following second doses differed significantly between BNT162b2 and ChAdOx1, with greater initial effectiveness against new PCR-positives but faster declines in protection against high viral burden and symptomatic infection with BNT162b2. There was no evidence that effectiveness varied by dosing interval, but protection was higher among those vaccinated following a prior infection and younger adults. With Delta, infections occurring following two vaccinations had similar peak viral burden to those in unvaccinated individuals. SARS-CoV-2 vaccination still reduces new infections, but effectiveness and attenuation of peak viral burden are reduced with Delta.

We report that in a cohort of 45,965 adults, who were receiving either the ChAdOx1 or the BNT162b2 SARS-CoV-2 vaccines, in those who had no prior infection with SARS-CoV-2, seroconversion rates and quantitative antibody levels after a single dose were lower in older individuals, especially in those aged >60 years. Two vaccine doses achieved high responses across all ages. Antibody levels increased more slowly and to lower levels with a single dose of ChAdOx1 compared with a single dose of BNT162b2, but waned following a single dose of BNT162b2 in older individuals. In descriptive latent class models, we identified four responder subgroups, including a ‘low responder’ group that more commonly consisted of people aged >75 years, males and individuals with long-term health conditions. Given our findings, we propose that available vaccines should be prioritized for those not previously infected and that second doses should be prioritized for individuals aged >60 years. Further data are needed to better understand the extent to which quantitative antibody responses are associated with vaccine-mediated protection., Longitudinal tracing of antibody responses to the ChAdOx1 and the BNT162b2 COVID-19 vaccines in 45,965 adults from the United Kingdom give indications for vaccine prioritization.

Understanding the trajectory, duration, and determinants of antibody responses after SARS-CoV-2 infection can inform subsequent protection and risk of reinfection, however large-scale representative studies are limited. Here we estimated antibody response after SARS-CoV-2 infection in the general population using representative data from 7,256 United Kingdom COVID-19 infection survey participants who had positive swab SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests from 26-April-2020 to 14-June-2021. A latent class model classified 24% of participants as ‘non-responders’ not developing anti-spike antibodies, who were older, had higher SARS-CoV-2 cycle threshold values during infection (i.e. lower viral burden), and less frequently reported any symptoms. Among those who seroconverted, using Bayesian linear mixed models, the estimated anti-spike IgG peak level was 7.3-fold higher than the level previously associated with 50% protection against reinfection, with higher peak levels in older participants and those of non-white ethnicity. The estimated anti-spike IgG half-life was 184 days, being longer in females and those of white ethnicity. We estimated antibody levels associated with protection against reinfection likely last 1.5-2 years on average, with levels associated with protection from severe infection present for several years. These estimates could inform planning for vaccination booster strategies., Most people who are infected with SARS-CoV-2 seroconvert within a few weeks, but the determinants and duration of the antibody response are not known. Here, the authors characterise these features of the immune response using data from a large representative community sample of the UK population.

BackgroundDespite robust efforts, patients and staff acquire SARS-CoV-2 infection in hospitals. In this retrospective cohort study, we investigated whether whole-genome sequencing (WGS) could enhance the epidemiological investigation of healthcare-associated SARS-CoV-2 acquisition.Methods and findingsFrom 17-November-2020 to 5-January-2021, 803 inpatients and 329 staff were diagnosed with SARS-CoV-2 infection across four teaching hospitals in Oxfordshire, UK. We classified cases according to epidemiological definitions, sought epidemiological evidence of a potential source for each nosocomial infection, and evaluated if epidemiologically-linked cases had genomic evidence supporting transmission. We compared epidemiological and genomic outbreak identification.Using national epidemiological definitions, 109/803 (14%) inpatient infections were classified as definite/probable nosocomial, 615 (77%) as community-acquired and 79 (10%) as indeterminate. There was strong epidemiological evidence to support definite/probable cases as nosocomial: 107/109 (98%) had a prior-negative PCR in the same hospital stay before testing positive, and 101(93%) shared time and space with known infected patients/staff. Many indeterminate cases were likely infected in hospital: 53/79 (67%) had a prior-negative PCR and 75 (95%) contact with a potential source. 89/615 (11% of all 803 patients) with apparent community-onset had a recent hospital exposure.WGS highlighted SARS-CoV-2 is mainly imported into hospitals: within 764 samples sequenced 607 genomic clusters were identified (>1 SNP distinct). Only 43/607 (7%) clusters contained evidence of onward transmission (subsequent cases within ≤1 SNP). 20/21 epidemiologically-identified outbreaks contained multiple genomic introductions. Most (80%) nosocomial acquisition occurred in rapid super-spreading events in settings with a mix of COVID-19 and non-COVID-19 patients. Hospitals not routinely admitting COVID-19 patients had low rates of transmission. Undiagnosed/unsequenced individuals prevent genomic data from excluding nosocomial acquisition.ConclusionsOur findings suggest current surveillance definitions underestimate nosocomial acquisition and reveal most nosocomial transmission occurs from a relatively limited number of highly infectious individuals.

ObjectivesGram-negative organisms are common causes of bloodstream infection (BSI) during the neonatal period and early childhood. Whilst several large studies have characterised these isolates in adults, equivalent data (particularly incorporating whole genome sequencing) is lacking in the paediatric population.MethodsWe performed an epidemiological and sequencing based analysis of Gram-negative bloodstream infections in children Results327 isolates (296 successfully sequenced) from 287 patients were included. The burden of infection was predominantly in neonates (124/327[38%]). Most infections were caused by Escherichia coli (149/327[46%])/Klebsiella spp. (69/327[21%]) and Enterobacter hormaechei (34/327[10%]). There was no evidence of an increasing incidence of E. coli BSIs (IRRy 0.96, 95%CI 0.90-1.30, p=0.30) and for Klebsiella spp. there was some evidence that the incidence decreased slightly (IRRy 0.91, 95%CI 0.83-1.00, p=0.06). Similarly the proportion of antimicrobial resistant (across all antimicrobial classes evaluated) isolates did not change over time, though we did identify some evidence of sub-breakpoint increases in gentamicin resistance IRRy 1.86, 95%CI 1.33-2.58, pheterogeneity=0.002. The population structure of E. coli BSI isolates in neonates and children mirrors that in adults with a predominance of STs 131/95/73/69 and the same proportion of O-antigen serotypes covered by the ExPEC-4V vaccine. In most cases there was no evidence of transmission/point-source acquisition and whole genome sequencing was able to refute a previously suspected Serratia marcescens outbreak.ConclusionOur findings support continued use of current empirical treatment guidelines and suggest that O-antigen targeted vaccines may have a role in reducing the incidence of neonatal sepsis.

Background Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) in Enterobacterales is a global health threat. Capacity for individual-level surveillance remains limited in many countries, whilst population-level surveillance approaches could inform empiric antibiotic treatment guidelines. Methods In this exploratory study, a novel approach to population-level prediction of AMR in Enterobacterales clinical isolates using metagenomic (Illumina) profiling of pooled DNA extracts from human faecal samples was developed and tested. Taxonomic and AMR gene profiles were used to derive taxonomy-adjusted population-level AMR metrics. Bayesian modelling, and model comparison based on cross-validation, were used to evaluate the capacity of each metric to predict the number of resistant Enterobacterales invasive infections at a population-level, using available bloodstream/cerebrospinal fluid infection data. Findings Population metagenomes comprised samples from 177, 157, and 156 individuals in Kenya, the UK, and Cambodia, respectively, collected between September 2014 and April 2016. Clinical data from independent populations included 910, 3356 and 197 bacterial isolates from blood/cerebrospinal fluid infections in Kenya, the UK and Cambodia, respectively (samples collected between January 2010 and May 2017). Enterobacterales were common colonisers and pathogens, and faecal taxonomic/AMR gene distributions and proportions of antimicrobial-resistant Enterobacterales infections differed by setting. A model including terms reflecting the metagenomic abundance of the commonest clinical Enterobacterales species, and of AMR genes known to either increase the minimum inhibitory concentration (MIC) or confer clinically-relevant resistance, had a higher predictive performance in determining population-level resistance in clinical Enterobacterales isolates compared to models considering only AMR gene information, only taxonomic information, or an intercept-only baseline model (difference in expected log predictive density compared to best model, estimated using leave-one-out cross-validation: intercept-only model = -223 [95% credible interval (CI): -330,-116]; model considering only AMR gene information = -186 [95% CI: -281,-91]; model considering only taxonomic information = -151 [95% CI: -232,-69]). Interpretation Whilst our findings are exploratory and require validation, intermittent metagenomics of pooled samples could represent an effective approach for AMR surveillance and to predict population-level AMR in clinical isolates, complementary to ongoing development of laboratory infrastructures processing individual samples. Funding The study was funded by Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (grant agreement OPP1160974) and was sponsored by University of Oxford. The study was also supported by the National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) Oxford Biomedical Research Centre, and NIHR Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare-associated Infections and Antimicrobial Resistance (a partnership between the University of Oxford and Public Health England [PHE]). Kenyan samples were collected in a study funded by the MRC/DfID/Wellcome Joint Clinical Trials scheme: MR/M007367/1.

Objectives We investigated determinants of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) anti-spike IgG responses in healthcare workers (HCWs) following one or two doses of Pfizer–BioNTech or Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccines. Methods HCWs participating in regular SARS-CoV-2 PCR and antibody testing were invited for serological testing prior to first and second vaccination, and 4 weeks post-vaccination if receiving a 12-week dosing interval. Quantitative post-vaccination anti-spike antibody responses were measured using the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG II Quant assay (detection threshold: ≥50 AU/mL). We used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of seropositivity and generalized additive models to track antibody responses over time. Results 3570/3610 HCWs (98.9%) were seropositive >14 days post first vaccination and prior to second vaccination: 2706/2720 (99.5%) were seropositive after the Pfizer–BioNTech and 864/890 (97.1%) following the Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccines. Previously infected and younger HCWs were more likely to test seropositive post first vaccination, with no evidence of differences by sex or ethnicity. All 470 HCWs tested >14 days after the second vaccination were seropositive. Quantitative antibody responses were higher after previous infection: median (IQR) >21 days post first Pfizer–BioNTech 14 604 (7644–22 291) AU/mL versus 1028 (564–1985) AU/mL without prior infection (p < 0.001). Oxford–AstraZeneca vaccine recipients had lower readings post first dose than Pfizer–BioNTech recipients, with and without previous infection, 10 095 (5354–17 096) and 435 (203–962) AU/mL respectively (both p < 0.001 versus Pfizer–BioNTech). Antibody responses >21 days post second Pfizer vaccination in those not previously infected, 10 058 (6408–15 582) AU/mL, were similar to those after prior infection followed by one vaccine dose. Conclusions SARS-CoV-2 vaccination leads to detectable anti-spike antibodies in nearly all adult HCWs. Whether differences in response impact vaccine efficacy needs further study.

LamPORE is a novel diagnostic platform for the detection of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) RNA combining loop-mediated isothermal amplification with nanopore sequencing, which could potentially be used to analyze thousands of samples per day on a single instrument. We evaluated the performance of LamPORE against reverse transcriptase PCR (RT-PCR) using RNA extracted from spiked respiratory samples and stored nose and throat swabs collected at two UK hospitals. The limit of detection of LamPORE was 10 genome copies/μl of extracted RNA, which is above the limit achievable by RT-PCR, but was not associated with a significant reduction of sensitivity in clinical samples. Positive clinical specimens came mostly from patients with acute symptomatic infection, and among them, LamPORE had a diagnostic sensitivity of 99.1% (226/228; 95% confidence interval [CI], 96.9% to 99.9%). Among negative clinical specimens, including 153 with other respiratory pathogens detected, LamPORE had a diagnostic specificity of 99.6% (278/279; 98.0% to 100.0%). Overall, 1.4% (7/514; 0.5% to 2.9%) of samples produced an indeterminate result on first testing, and repeat LamPORE testing on the same RNA extract had a reproducibility of 96.8% (478/494; 94.8% to 98.1%). LamPORE has a similar performance as RT-PCR for the diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection in symptomatic patients and offers a promising approach to high-throughput testing.

Real-world data on antibody response post-vaccination in the general population are limited. 45,965 adults in the UK’s national COVID-19 Infection Survey receiving Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines had 111,360 anti-spike IgG measurements. Without prior infection, seroconversion rates and quantitative antibody levels post single dose were lower in older individuals, especially >60y. Two doses achieved high responses across all ages, particularly increasing seroconversion in older people, to similar levels to those achieved after prior infection followed by a single dose. Antibody levels rose more slowly and to lower levels with Oxford-AstraZeneca vs Pfizer-BioNTech, but waned following a single Pfizer-BioNTech dose. Latent class models identified four responder phenotypes: older people, males, and those having long-term health conditions were more commonly ‘low responders’. Where supplies are limited, vaccines should be prioritised for those not previously infected, and second doses to individuals >60y. Further data on the relationship between vaccine-mediated protection and antibody responses are needed.

Objectives: To assess the effectiveness of COVID-19 vaccination in preventing SARS-CoV-2 infection in the community. Design: Prospective cohort study. Setting: The UK population-representative longitudinal COVID-19 Infection Survey. Participants: 373,402 participants aged ≥16 years contributing 1,610,562 RT-PCR results from nose and throat swabs between 1 December 2020 and 3 April 2021. Main outcome measures: New RT-PCR-positive episodes for SARS-CoV-2 overall, by self-reported symptoms, by cycle threshold (Ct) value (0.9).There was no evidence of a difference in odds of new SARS-CoV-2 infection for individuals having received two vaccine doses and with evidence of prior infection but not vaccinated (P=0.89). Vaccination had a greater impact on reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections with evidence of high viral shedding Ct

ObjectivesWe investigate determinants of SARS-CoV-2 anti-spike IgG responses in healthcare workers (HCWs) following one or two doses of Pfizer-BioNTech or Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines.MethodsHCWs participating in regular SARS-CoV-2 PCR and antibody testing were invited for serological testing prior to first and second vaccination, and 4 weeks post-vaccination if receiving a 12-week dosing interval. Quantitative post-vaccination anti-spike antibody responses were measured using the Abbott SARS-CoV-2 IgG II Quant assay (detection threshold: ≥50 AU/ml). We used multivariable logistic regression to identify predictors of seropositivity and generalised additive models to track antibody responses over time.ResultsVaccine uptake was 80%, but less in lower-paid roles and Black, south Asian and minority ethnic groups. 3570/3610(98.9%) HCWs were seropositive >14 days post-first vaccination and prior to second vaccination, 2706/2720(99.5%) after Pfizer-BioNTech and 864/890(97.1%) following Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccines. Previously infected and younger HCWs were more likely to test seropositive post-first vaccination, with no evidence of differences by sex or ethnicity. All 470 HCWs tested >14 days after second vaccine were seropositive. Quantitative antibody responses were higher after previous infection: median(IQR) >21 days post-first Pfizer-BioNTech 14,604(7644-22,291) AU/ml vs. 1028(564-1985) AU/ml without prior infection (pConclusionsVaccination leads to detectable anti-spike antibodies in nearly all adult HCWs. Whether differences in response impact vaccine efficacy needs further study.

BackgroundNatural and vaccine-induced immunity will play a key role in controlling the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 variants have the potential to evade natural and vaccine-induced immunity.MethodsIn a longitudinal cohort study of healthcare workers (HCWs) in Oxfordshire, UK, we investigated the protection from symptomatic and asymptomatic PCR-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection conferred by vaccination (Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 nCOV-19) and prior infection (determined using anti-spike antibody status), using Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, temporal changes in incidence and role. We estimated protection conferred after one versus two vaccinations and from infections with the B.1.1.7 variant identified using whole genome sequencing.Results13,109 HCWs participated; 8285 received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (1407 two doses) and 2738 the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine (49 two doses). Compared to unvaccinated seronegative HCWs, natural immunity and two vaccination doses provided similar protection against symptomatic infection: no HCW vaccinated twice had symptomatic infection, and incidence was 98% lower in seropositive HCWs (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.02 [95%CI ConclusionNatural infection resulting in detectable anti-spike antibodies and two vaccine doses both provide robust protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, including against the B.1.1.7 variant.SummaryNatural infection resulting in detectable anti-spike antibodies and two vaccine doses both provided ≥ 85% protection against symptomatic and asymptomatic SARS-CoV-2 infection in healthcare workers, including against the B.1.1.7 variant. Single dose vaccination reduced symptomatic infection by 67%.

Background Natural and vaccine-induced immunity will play a key role in controlling the severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic. SARS-CoV-2 variants have the potential to evade natural and vaccine-induced immunity. Methods In a longitudinal cohort study of healthcare workers (HCWs) in Oxfordshire, United Kingdom, we investigated the protection from symptomatic and asymptomatic polymerase chain reaction (PCR)-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection conferred by vaccination (Pfizer-BioNTech BNT162b2, Oxford-AstraZeneca ChAdOx1 nCOV-19) and prior infection (determined using anti-spike antibody status), using Poisson regression adjusted for age, sex, temporal changes in incidence and role. We estimated protection conferred after 1 versus 2 vaccinations and from infections with the B.1.1.7 variant identified using whole genome sequencing. Results In total, 13 109 HCWs participated; 8285 received the Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine (1407 two doses), and 2738 the Oxford-AstraZeneca vaccine (49 two doses). Compared to unvaccinated seronegative HCWs, natural immunity and 2 vaccination doses provided similar protection against symptomatic infection: no HCW vaccinated twice had symptomatic infection, and incidence was 98% lower in seropositive HCWs (adjusted incidence rate ratio 0.02 [95% confidence interval {CI} Conclusions Natural infection resulting in detectable anti-spike antibodies and 2 vaccine doses both provide robust protection against SARS-CoV-2 infection, including against the B.1.1.7 variant.

Background Thresholds for SARS-CoV-2 antibody assays have typically been determined using samples from symptomatic, often hospitalised, patients. In this setting the sensitivity and specificity of the best performing assays can both exceed 98%. However, antibody assay performance following mild infection is less clear. Methods We assessed quantitative IgG responses in a cohort of healthcare workers in Oxford, UK, with a high pre-test probability of Covid-19, in particular the 991/11,475(8.6%) who reported loss of smell/taste. We use anosmia/ageusia and other risk factors as probes for Covid-19 infection potentially undiagnosed by immunoassays by investigating their relationship with antibody readings either side of assay thresholds. Results The proportion of healthcare workers reporting anosmia/ageusia increased at antibody readings below diagnostic thresholds using an in-house ELISA (n = 9324) and the Abbott Architect chemiluminescent microparticle immunoassay (CMIA; n = 11,324): 426/906 (47%) reported anosmia/ageusia with a positive ELISA, 59/449 (13.1%) with high-negative and 326/7969 (4.1%) with low-negative readings. Similarly, by CMIA, 518/1093 (47.4%) with a positive result reported anosmia/ageusia, 106/686 (15.5%) with a high-negative and 358/9563 (3.7%) with a low-negative result. Adjusting for the proportion of staff reporting anosmia/ageusia suggests the sensitivity of both assays in mild infection is lower than previously reported: Oxford ELISA 89.8% (95%CI 86.6–92.8%) and Abbott CMIA 79.3% (75.9–82.7%). Conclusion Following mild SARS-CoV-2 infection 10–30% of individuals may have negative immunoassay results. While lowered diagnostic thresholds may result in unacceptable specificity, our findings have implications for epidemiological analyses and result interpretation in individuals with a high pre-test probability. Samples from mild PCR-confirmed infections should be included in SARS-CoV-2 immunoassay evaluations.

BackgroundA new variant of SARS-CoV-2, B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01, was identified in the UK in December-2020. Direct estimates of its potential to enhance transmission are limited.MethodsNose and throat swabs from 28-September-2020 to 2-January-2021 in the UK’s nationally representative surveillance study were tested by RT-PCR for three genes (N, S and ORF1ab). Those positive only on ORF1ab+N, S-gene target failures (SGTF), are compatible with B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01. We investigated cycle threshold (Ct) values (a proxy for viral load), percentage of positives, population positivity and growth rates in SGTF vs non-SGTF positives.Results15,166(0.98%) of 1,553,687 swabs were PCR-positive, 8,545(56%) with three genes detected and 3,531(23%) SGTF. SGTF comprised an increasing, and triple-gene positives a decreasing, percentage of infections from late-November in most UK regions/countries, e.g. from 15% to 38% to 81% over 1.5 months in London. SGTF Ct values correspondingly declined substantially to similar levels to triple-gene positives. Population-level SGTF positivity remained low (ConclusionsDirect population-representative estimates show that the B.1.1.7/VOC202012/01 SARS-CoV-2 variant leads to higher infection rates, but does not seem particularly adapted to any age group.

Summary Background Decisions about the continued need for control measures to contain the spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) rely on accurate and up-to-date information about the number of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 and risk factors for testing positive. Existing surveillance systems are generally not based on population samples and are not longitudinal in design. Methods Samples were collected from individuals aged 2 years and older living in private households in England that were randomly selected from address lists and previous Office for National Statistics surveys in repeated cross-sectional household surveys with additional serial sampling and longitudinal follow-up. Participants completed a questionnaire and did nose and throat self-swabs. The percentage of individuals testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 RNA was estimated over time by use of dynamic multilevel regression and poststratification, to account for potential residual non-representativeness. Potential changes in risk factors for testing positive over time were also assessed. The study is registered with the ISRCTN Registry, ISRCTN21086382. Findings Between April 26 and Nov 1, 2020, results were available from 1 191 170 samples from 280 327 individuals; 5231 samples were positive overall, from 3923 individuals. The percentage of people testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 changed substantially over time, with an initial decrease between April 26 and June 28, 2020, from 0·40% (95% credible interval 0·29–0·54) to 0·06% (0·04–0·07), followed by low levels during July and August, 2020, before substantial increases at the end of August, 2020, with percentages testing positive above 1% from the end of October, 2020. Having a patient-facing role and working outside your home were important risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 at the end of the first wave (April 26 to June 28, 2020), but not in the second wave (from the end of August to Nov 1, 2020). Age (young adults, particularly those aged 17–24 years) was an important initial driver of increased positivity rates in the second wave. For example, the estimated percentage of individuals testing positive was more than six times higher in those aged 17–24 years than in those aged 70 years or older at the end of September, 2020. A substantial proportion of infections were in individuals not reporting symptoms around their positive test (45–68%, dependent on calendar time. Interpretation Important risk factors for testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 varied substantially between the part of the first wave that was captured by the study (April to June, 2020) and the first part of the second wave of increased positivity rates (end of August to Nov 1, 2020), and a substantial proportion of infections were in individuals not reporting symptoms, indicating that continued monitoring for SARS-CoV-2 in the community will be important for managing the COVID-19 pandemic moving forwards. Funding Department of Health and Social Care.

Summary Background Severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) has caused a global pandemic in 2020. Testing is crucial for mitigating public health and economic effects. Serology is considered key to population-level surveillance and potentially individual-level risk assessment. However, immunoassay performance has not been compared on large, identical sample sets. We aimed to investigate the performance of four high-throughput commercial SARS-CoV-2 antibody immunoassays and a novel 384-well ELISA. Methods We did a head-to-head assessment of SARS-CoV-2 IgG assay (Abbott, Chicago, IL, USA), LIAISON SARS-CoV-2 S1/S2 IgG assay (DiaSorin, Saluggia, Italy), Elecsys Anti-SARS-CoV-2 assay (Roche, Basel, Switzerland), SARS-CoV-2 Total assay (Siemens, Munich, Germany), and a novel 384-well ELISA (the Oxford immunoassay). We derived sensitivity and specificity from 976 pre-pandemic blood samples (collected between Sept 4, 2014, and Oct 4, 2016) and 536 blood samples from patients with laboratory-confirmed SARS-CoV-2 infection, collected at least 20 days post symptom onset (collected between Feb 1, 2020, and May 31, 2020). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves were used to assess assay thresholds. Findings At the manufacturers' thresholds, for the Abbott assay sensitivity was 92·7% (95% CI 90·2–94·8) and specificity was 99·9% (99·4–100%); for the DiaSorin assay sensitivity was 96·2% (94·2–97·7) and specificity was 98·9% (98·0–99·4); for the Oxford immunoassay sensitivity was 99·1% (97·8–99·7) and specificity was 99·0% (98·1–99·5); for the Roche assay sensitivity was 97·2% (95·4–98·4) and specificity was 99·8% (99·3–100); and for the Siemens assay sensitivity was 98·1% (96·6–99·1) and specificity was 99·9% (99·4–100%). All assays achieved a sensitivity of at least 98% with thresholds optimised to achieve a specificity of at least 98% on samples taken 30 days or more post symptom onset. Interpretation Four commercial, widely available assays and a scalable 384-well ELISA can be used for SARS-CoV-2 serological testing to achieve sensitivity and specificity of at least 98%. The Siemens assay and Oxford immunoassay achieved these metrics without further optimisation. This benchmark study in immunoassay assessment should enable refinements of testing strategies and the best use of serological testing resource to benefit individuals and population health. Funding Public Health England and UK National Institute for Health Research.

Background:Hospital wastewater is an increasingly recognized reservoir for resistant Gramnegative organisms. Factors involved in establishment and persistence of Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase-producing organisms (KPCO) in hospital wastewater plumbing are unclear. Methods: This study was conducted at a hospital with endemic KPCO linked to wastewater reservoirs and robust patient perirectal screening for silent KPCO carriage. Over five months, both rooms occupied and not occupied by KPCO-positive patients were sampled at three wastewater sites within each room (sink drain, sink P-trap, and toilet or hopper). Risk factors for KPCO positivity were assessed using logistic regression. Whole genome sequencing (WGS) identified environmental seeding by KPCO-positive patients. Findings: 219/475(46%) room sampling events were KPCO-positive in at least one wastewater site. KPCO-positive patient exposure was associated with increased risk of environmental positivity for the room and toilet/hopper. Previous positivity and intensive care unit room type were consistently associated with increased risk. Tube feeds were associated with increased risk for the drain, while exposure to patients with Clostridioides difficile was associated with decreased risk. Urinary catheter exposure was associated with increased risk of P-trap positivity. P-trap heaters reduced risk of P-trap and sink drain positivity. WGS identified genomically linked environmental seeding in six of 99 room occupations by 40 KPCO-positive patients. Interpretation: KPCO-positive patients seed the environment in at least 6% of opportunities; once positive for KPCO, wastewater sites are at greater risk of being positive subsequently. Increased nutrient exposure, e.g. due to tube food disposal down sinks, may increase risk; frequent flushing may be protective. IMPORTANCE: Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase-producing organisms (KPCOs) are bacteria that are resistant to most antibiotics and thus are challenging to treat when they cause infections in patients. These organisms can be acquired by patients who are hospitalized for other reasons, complicating their hospital stay and even leading to death. Hospital wastewater sites, such as sink drains and toilets, have played a role in many reported outbreaks over the past decade. The significance of our research is in identifying risk factors for environmental positivity for KPCOs, which will facilitate further work to prevent transmission of these organisms to patients from the hospital environment.

BackgroundIt is critical to understand whether infection with Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) protects from subsequent reinfection.MethodsWe investigated the incidence of SARS-CoV-2 PCR-positive results in seropositive and seronegative healthcare workers (HCWs) attending asymptomatic and symptomatic staff testing at Oxford University Hospitals, UK. Baseline antibody status was determined using anti-spike and/or anti-nucleocapsid IgG assays and staff followed for up to 30 weeks. We used Poisson regression to estimate the relative incidence of PCR-positive results and new symptomatic infection by antibody status, accounting for age, gender and changes in incidence over time.ResultsA total of 12219 HCWs participated and had anti-spike IgG measured, 11052 were followed up after negative and 1246 after positive antibody results including 79 who seroconverted during follow up. 89 PCR-confirmed symptomatic infections occurred in seronegative individuals (0.46 cases per 10,000 days at risk) and no symptomatic infections in those with anti-spike antibodies. Additionally, 76 (0.40/10,000 days at risk) anti-spike IgG seronegative individuals had PCR-positive tests in asymptomatic screening, compared to 3 (0.21/10,000 days at risk) seropositive individuals. Overall, positive baseline anti-spike antibodies were associated with lower rates of PCR-positivity (with or without symptoms) (adjusted rate ratio 0.24 [95%CI 0.08-0.76, p=0.015]). Rate ratios were similar using anti-nucleocapsid IgG alone or combined with anti-spike IgG to determine baseline status.ConclusionsPrior SARS-CoV-2 infection that generated antibody responses offered protection from reinfection for most people in the six months following infection. Further work is required to determine the long-term duration and correlates of post-infection immunity.

Background Serological tests are widely used in various medical disciplines for diagnostic and monitoring purposes. Unfortunately, the sensitivity and specificity of test systems is often poor, leaving room for false positive and false negative results. However, conventional methods used to increase specificity decrease sensitivity and vice versa. Using SARS-CoV-2 serology as an example, we propose here a novel testing strategy: the "Sensitivity Improved Two-Test" or "SIT2" algorithm. Methods SIT2 involves confirmatory re-testing of samples with results falling in a predefined retesting-zone of an initial screening test, with adjusted cut-offs to increase sensitivity. We verified and compared the performance of SIT2 to single tests and orthogonal testing (OTA) in an Austrian cohort (1,117 negative, 64 post-COVID positive samples) and validated the algorithm in an independent British cohort (976 negatives, 536 positives). Results The specificity of SIT2 was superior to single tests and non-inferior to OTA. The sensitivity was maintained or even improved using SIT2 when compared to single tests or OTA. SIT2 allowed correct identification of infected individuals even when a live virus neutralization assay could not detect antibodies. Compared to single testing or OTA, SIT2 significantly reduced total test errors to 0.46% (0.24-0.65) or 1.60% (0.94-2.38) at both 5% or 20% seroprevalence. Conclusion For SARS-CoV-2 serology, SIT2 proved to be the best diagnostic choice at both 5% and 20% seroprevalence in all tested scenarios. It is an easy to apply algorithm and can potentially be helpful for the serology of other infectious diseases.

BackgroundSARS-CoV-2 IgG antibody measurements can be used to estimate the proportion of a population exposed or infected and may be informative about the risk of future infection. Previous estimates of the duration of antibody responses vary.MethodsWe present 6 months of data from a longitudinal seroprevalence study of 3217 UK healthcare workers (HCWs). Serial measurements of IgG antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid were obtained. Bayesian mixed linear models were used to investigate antibody waning and associations with age, gender, ethnicity, previous symptoms and PCR results.ResultsIn this cohort of working age HCWs, antibody levels rose to a peak at 24 (95% credibility interval, CrI 19-31) days post-first positive PCR test, before beginning to fall. Considering 452 IgG seropositive HCWs over a median of 121 days (maximum 171 days) from their maximum positive IgG titre, the mean estimated antibody half-life was 85 (95%CrI, 81-90) days. The estimated mean time to loss of a positive antibody result was 137 (95%CrI 127-148) days. We observed variation between individuals; higher maximum observed IgG titres were associated with longer estimated antibody half-lives. Increasing age, Asian ethnicity and prior self-reported symptoms were independently associated with higher maximum antibody levels, and increasing age and a positive PCR test undertaken for symptoms with longer antibody half-lives.ConclusionIgG antibody levels to SARS-CoV-2 nucleocapsid wane within months, and faster in younger adults and those without symptoms. Ongoing longitudinal studies are required to track the long-term duration of antibody levels and their association with immunity to SARS-CoV-2 reinfection.SummarySerially measured SARS-CoV-2 anti-nucleocapsid IgG titres from 452 seropositive healthcare workers demonstrate levels fall by half in 85 days. From a peak result, detectable antibodies last a mean 137 days. Levels fall faster in younger adults and following asymptomatic infection.

SynopsisBackgroundAntimicrobial resistance (AMR) surveillance of bloodstream infections is challenging in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), limited laboratory capacity preventing routine patient-level susceptibility testing. Other specimen types could provide an effective approach to surveillance.ObjectivesOur study aims to systematically evaluate the relationship between resistance prevalence in non-sterile sites and bloodstream infections.MethodsAssociations between resistance rates in Escherichia coli and Staphylococcus aureus isolates from blood and other specimens were estimated in Oxfordshire, UK, 1998-2018, comparing proportions resistant in each calendar year using time series cross-correlations and across drug-years. We repeated analysis across publicly-available data from four high-income and 12 middle-income countries, and in three hospitals/programmes in LMICs.Results8102 E. coli bloodstream infections, 322087 E. coli urinary tract infections, 6952 S. aureus bloodstream infections and 112074 S. aureus non-sterile site cultures were included from Oxfordshire. Resistance trends over time in blood versus other specimens were strongly correlated (maximum cross-correlation 0.51-0.99, strongest associations in the same year for 18/27 pathogen-drug combinations). Resistance prevalence was broadly congruent across drug-years for each species. 276/312 (88%) species-drug-years had resistance prevalence in other specimen types within ±10% of that blood isolates. Results were similar across multiple countries and hospitals/programmes in high/middle/low income-settings.ConclusionsResistance in bloodstream and less invasive infections are strongly related over time, suggesting the latter could be a surveillance tool for AMR in LMICs. These infection sites are easier to sample and cheaper to obtain the necessary numbers of susceptibility tests, providing more cost-effective evidence for decisions including empiric antibiotic recommendations.

Wastewater-based surveillance of antimicrobial resistance (AMR) may facilitate convenient monitoring of population-level AMR prevalence without the healthcare-associated bias and data collection restrictions inherent to clinically oriented systems. However, differences in study design and methodology likely contribute to differences in outcomes and interpretation, limiting reproducibility, reliability and meta-analysis. We therefore systematically reviewed studies using wastewater for AMR surveillance in human populations to identify optimal practices to detect wastewater-human AMR correlations. We evaluated 7,063 records and 174 full-text methods in a two-stage screen; 20 studies were included. Risk of bias assessment divided studies into high-risk (n=3), low-risk (n=3) and unclear-risk (n=14). Most studies detected wastewater-human AMR correlations (n=15) but only six studies identified statistically significant associations, most via culture-independent approaches (n=5). Genomic approaches also facilitated higher-resolution AMR monitoring whereas culture-based studies primarily undertook observational comparisons of specific organisms and phenotypic AMR profiles. Studies identifying wastewater-human AMR correlations were consistently associated with sampling wastewater influent irrespective of other methodological approaches. For longitudinal studies, a timeframe of >=6 months was similarly associated. Most influent studies identifying wastewater-human AMR correlations used composite (n=5) or flow-proportional wastewater sampling methods (n=4); however, grab sampling was commonest overall (n=6) and generally appeared similarly effective.Wastewater-based surveillance of AMR in human populations appears relatively robust, with most included studies reporting a correlation despite high diversity in study design and methodology. Our review supports sampling of wastewater influent using composite sampling (at a minimum) as a standard. Impacts of other methodological approaches are less clear; however, a minimum timeframe of six months for longitudinal studies, and increased sampling coverage for culture-independent studies to enable adequate biostatistical analyses appear sensible. As this relatively new field grows, more studies with clear wastewater-based population-level AMR surveillance aims are needed to better determine the impact of confounding features and validate comprehensive “best practice” protocols.

Serological detection of antibodies to SARS-CoV-2 is essential for establishing rates of seroconversion in populations, and for seeking evidence for a level of antibody that may be protective against COVID-19 disease. Several high-performance commercial tests have been described, but these require centralised laboratory facilities that are comparatively expensive, and therefore not available universally. Red cell agglutination tests do not require special equipment, are read by eye, have short development times, low cost and can be applied at the Point of Care. Here we describe a quantitative Haemagglutination test (HAT) for the detection of antibodies to the receptor binding domain of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein. The HAT has a sensitivity of 90% and specificity of 99% for detection of antibodies after a PCR diagnosed infection. We will supply aliquots of the test reagent sufficient for ten thousand test wells free of charge to qualified research groups anywhere in the world., Serological detection of antibodies against SARS-CoV-2 can help establish rates of seroconversion. Here the authors develop a red cell agglutination test to detect antibodies against the receptor binding domain for distribution free of charge to qualified research groups.

The incidence of bloodstream infections (BSIs) caused by Enterobacteriaceae (e.g. Escherichia coli, Klebsiella pneumoniae) continues to increase globally and the threat of untreatable disease is substantial1. Prophylactic vaccines represent an alternative approach to combating antimicrobial resistance (AMR) by reducing antibiotic usage and preventing infections caused by AMR-associated strains. To investigate their potential utility, we performed in silico serotyping on 4035 E. coli/K. pneumoniae BSI from population-level surveillance in Oxfordshire (2008-2018) in addition to 3678 isolates from previous studies. Most infections, including those associated with AMR, were caused by isolates with a small subset of O-antigens, with no evidence that the proportion of BSIs caused by these changed significantly over time. O-antigen targeted vaccines might therefore be useful in reducing the significant morbidity and mortality2 associated with BSIs. Vaccines may also have a role in preventing the spread of carbapenem resistance genes into common serotypes associated with community-onset disease.

BackgroundLaboratory diagnosis of SARS-CoV-2 infection (the cause of COVID-19) uses PCR to detect viral RNA (vRNA) in respiratory samples. SARS-CoV-2 RNA has also been detected in other sample types, but there is limited understanding of the clinical or laboratory significance of its detection in blood.MethodsWe undertook a systematic literature review to assimilate the evidence for the frequency of vRNA in blood, and to identify associated clinical characteristics. We performed RT-PCR in serum samples from a UK clinical cohort of acute and convalescent COVID-19 cases (n=212), together with convalescent plasma samples collected by NHS Blood and Transplant (NHSBT) (n=111 additional samples). To determine whether PCR-positive blood samples could pose an infection risk, we attempted virus isolation from a subset of RNA-positive samples.ResultsWe identified 28 relevant studies, reporting SARS-CoV-2 RNA in 0-76% of blood samples; pooled estimate 10% (95%CI 5-18%). Among serum samples from our clinical cohort, 27/212 (12.7%) had SARS-CoV-2 RNA detected by RT-PCR. RNA detection occurred in samples up to day 20 post symptom onset, and was associated with more severe disease (multivariable odds ratio 7.5). Across all samples collected ≥28 days post symptom onset, 0/143 (0%, 95%CI 0.0-2.5%) had vRNA detected. Among our PCR-positive samples, cycle threshold (ct) values were high (range 33.5-44.8), suggesting low vRNA copy numbers. PCR-positive sera inoculated into cell culture did not produce any cytopathic effect or yield an increase in detectable SARS-CoV-2 RNA.ConclusionsvRNA was detectable at low viral loads in a minority of serum samples collected in acute infection, but was not associated with infectious SARS-CoV-2 (within the limitations of the assays used). This work helps to inform biosafety precautions for handling blood products from patients with current or previous COVID-19.

Antimicrobial resistance (AMR) is a global health threat, especially in low-/middle-income countries (LMICs), where there is limited surveillance to inform empiric antibiotic treatment guidelines. Enterobacterales are amongst the most important causes of drug-resistant bacterial infections. We developed a novel AMR surveillance approach for Enterobacterales by profiling pooled human faecal metagenomes from three sites (n=563 individuals; Cambodia, Kenya, UK) to derive a taxonomy-adjusted AMR metric (“resistance potential”) which could be used to predict the aggregate percentage of resistant invasive Enterobacterales infections within each setting. Samples were sequenced (Illumina); taxonomic and resistance gene profiling was performed using ResPipe. Data on organisms causing bacteraemia and meningitis and antibiotic susceptibility test results from 2010-2017 were collated for each site. Bayesian generalised linear models with a binomial likelihood were fitted to determine the capacity of the resistance potential to predict AMR in Enterobacterales infections in each setting. The most informative model accurately predicted the numbers of resistant infections in the target populations for 14/14 of antibiotics in the UK, 12/12 in Kenya, and 9/12 in Cambodia. Intermittent metagenomics of pooled human samples could represent a powerful pragmatic and economical approach for determining and monitoring AMR in clinical infections, especially in resource-limited settings.

SARS-CoV-2 IgG screening of 1,000 antenatal serum samples in the Oxford area, United Kingdom, between 14 April and 15 June 2020, yielded a 5.3% seroprevalence, mirroring contemporaneous regional data. Among the 53 positive samples, 39 showed in vitro neutralisation activity, correlating with IgG titre (Pearson’s correlation p

Background: Hospital wastewater is an increasingly recognized reservoir for resistant Gram-negative organisms. Factors involved in establishment and persistence of Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase-producing organisms (KPCO) in hospital wastewater plumbing are unclear. Methods: This study was conducted at a hospital with endemic KPCO linked to wastewater reservoirs and robust patient perirectal screening for silent KPCO carriage. Over five months, both rooms occupied and not occupied by KPCO-positive patients were sampled at three wastewater sites. Risk factors for KPCO positivity were assessed using logistic regression. Whole genome sequencing identified environmental seeding by KPCO-positive patients. Findings: 219/475 (46%) room sampling events were KPCO-positive in at least one wastewater site (sink drain, P-trap, or toilet/hopper). KPCO-positive patient exposure was associated with increased risk of environmental positivity for the room and toilet/hopper. Previous positivity and intensive care unit room type were consistently associated with increased risk. Tube feeds were associated with increased risk for the drain, while exposure to patients with Clostridioides difficile was associated with decreased risk. Urinary catheter exposure was associated with increased risk of P-trap positivity. P-trap heaters reduced risk of P-trap and sink drain positivity. Six of 99 room occupations by 40 KPCO-positive patients resulted in genomically-linked environmental seeding. Interpretation: KPCO-positive patients seed the environment in 6-8% of opportunities; once positive for KPCO, wastewater sites are at greater risk of being positive subsequently. Use of sinks for activities other than hand hygiene may increase risk; frequent flushing may be protective. Preventing establishment of drug-resistant Enterobacterales in hospital plumbing will require multi-faceted approaches. Funding Statement: This study was funded by the Center for Disease Control and Prevention (grant BAA 200-2017- 96194). SCP was supported by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) Infectious Diseases Training Grant (no. 5T32AI07046-42). DC, TEAP and ASW are supported by the National Institutes of Health Research (NIHR) Health Protection Research Unit in Healthcare Associated Infection and Antimicrobial Resistance at the University of Oxford in partnership with Public Health England (PHE) [HPRU-2012-10041] and the NIHR Oxford Biomedical Research Centre. TEAP and ASW are NIHR Senior Investigators. Declaration of Interests: AJM participated in the Tango II trial with meropenem/vaborbactam and was a former consultant to the Medisans Company. The remaining authors have nothing to declare. Ethics Approval Statement: Data was collected from the infection prevention and control database established under the University of Virginia Institutional Review Board protocol 18393. Data analysis and patient chart review was done under protocols 18776 and 13558.

Multidrug-resistant Klebsiella pneumoniae is an increasing cause of infant mortality in developing countries. We aimed to develop a quantitative understanding of the drivers of this epidemic by estimating the effects of antibiotics on nosocomial transmission risk, comparing competing hypotheses about mechanisms of spread, and quantifying the impact of potential interventions. Using a sequence of dynamic models, we analysed data from a one-year prospective carriage study in a Cambodian neonatal intensive care unit with hyperendemic third-generation cephalosporin-resistant K. pneumoniae. All widely-used antibiotics except imipenem were associated with an increased daily acquisition risk, with an odds ratio for the most common combination (ampicillin + gentamicin) of 1.96 (95% CrI 1.18, 3.36). Models incorporating genomic data found that colonisation pressure was associated with a higher transmission risk, indicated sequence type heterogeneity in transmissibility, and showed that within-ward transmission was insufficient to maintain endemicity. Simulations indicated that increasing the nurse-patient ratio could be an effective intervention.

To determine trends, mortality rates, and costs of antimicrobial resistance in invasive bacterial infections in hospitalized children, we analyzed data from Angkor Hospital for Children, Siem Reap, Cambodia, for 2007-2016. A total of 39,050 cultures yielded 1,341 target pathogens. Resistance rates were high; 82% each of Escherichia coli and Klebsiella pneumoniae isolates were multidrug resistant. Hospital-acquired isolates were more often resistant than community-acquired isolates; resistance trends over time were heterogeneous. K. pneumoniae isolates from neonates were more likely than those from nonneonates to be resistant to ampicillin-gentamicin and third-generation cephalosporins. In patients with community-acquired gram-negative bacteremia, third-generation cephalosporin resistance was associated with increased mortality rates, increased intensive care unit admissions, and 2.26-fold increased healthcare costs among survivors. High antimicrobial resistance in this setting is a threat to human life and the economy. In similar low-resource settings, our methods could be reproduced as a robust surveillance model for antimicrobial resistance.

Background Lateral flow device (LFD) viral antigen immunoassays have been developed around the world as diagnostic tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection. They have been proposed to deliver an infrastructure-light, cost-economical solution giving results within half an hour. Methods LFDs were initially reviewed by a Department of Health and Social Care team, part of the UK government, from which 64 were selected for further evaluation from 1st August to 15th December 2020. Standardised laboratory evaluations, and for those that met the published criteria, field testing in the Falcon-C19 research study and UK pilots were performed (UK COVID-19 testing centres, hospital, schools, armed forces). Findings 4/64 LFDs so far have desirable performance characteristics (orient Gene, Deepblue, Abbott and Innova SARS-CoV-2 Antigen Rapid Qualitative Test). All these LFDs have a viral antigen detection of >90% at 100,000 RNA copies/ml. 8951 Innova LFD tests were performed with a kit failure rate of 5.6% (502/8951, 95% CI: 5.1–6.1), false positive rate of 0.32% (22/6954, 95% CI: 0.20–0.48). Viral antigen detection/sensitivity across the sampling cohort when performed by laboratory scientists was 78.8% (156/198, 95% CI 72.4–84.3). Interpretation Our results suggest LFDs have promising performance characteristics for mass population testing and can be used to identify infectious positive individuals. The Innova LFD shows good viral antigen detection/sensitivity with excellent specificity, although kit failure rates and the impact of training are potential issues. These results support the expanded evaluation of LFDs, and assessment of greater access to testing on COVID-19 transmission. Funding Department of Health and Social Care. University of Oxford. Public Health England Porton Down, Manchester University NHS Foundation Trust, National Institute of Health Research.

Over the last 20 years there have been 32 reports of carbapenem-resistant organisms in the hospital water environment, with half of these occurring since 2010. The majority of these reports have described associated clinical outbreaks in the intensive care setting, affecting the critically ill and the immunocompromised. Drains, sinks, and faucets were most frequently colonized, and Pseudomonas aeruginosa the predominant organism. Imipenemase (IMP), Klebsiella pneumoniae carbapenemase (KPC), and Verona integron-encoded metallo-β-lactamase (VIM) were the most common carbapenemases found. Molecular typing was performed in almost all studies, with pulse field gel electrophoresis being most commonly used. Seventy-two percent of studies reported controlling outbreaks, of which just more than one-third eliminated the organism from the water environment. A combination of interventions seems to be most successful, including reinforcement of general infection control measures, alongside chemical disinfection. The most appropriate disinfection method remains unclear, however, and it is likely that replacement of colonized water reservoirs may be required for long-term clearance.