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Background: Mortality among people with HIV declined with the introduction of combination antiretroviral therapy. We investigated trends over time in all-cause and cause-specific mortality in people with HIV from 1999-2020., Methods: Data were collected from the D:A:D cohort from 1999 through January 2015 and RESPOND from October 2017 through 2020. Age-standardized all-cause and cause-specific mortality rates, classified using Coding Causes of Death in HIV (CoDe), were calculated. Poisson regression models were used to assess mortality trends over time., Results: Among 55716 participants followed for a median of 6 years (IQR 3-11), 5263 participants died (crude mortality rate [MR] 13.7/1000 PYFU; 95%CI 13.4-14.1). Changing patterns of mortality were observed with AIDS as the most common cause of death between 1999- 2009 (n = 952, MR 4.2/1000 PYFU; 95%CI 4.0-4.5) and non-AIDS defining malignancy (NADM) from 2010 -2020 (n = 444, MR 2.8/1000 PYFU; 95%CI 2.5-3.1). In multivariable analysis, all-cause mortality declined over time (adjusted mortality rate ratio [aMRR] 0.97 per year; 95%CI 0.96, 0.98), mostly from 1999 through 2010 (aMRR 0.96 per year; 95%CI 0.95-0.97), and with no decline shown from 2011 through 2020 (aMRR 1·00 per year; 95%CI 0·96-1·05). Mortality due all known causes except NADM also declined over the entire follow-up period., Conclusion: Mortality among people with HIV in the D:A:D and/or RESPOND cohorts decreased between 1999 and 2009 and was stable over the period from 2010 through 2020. The decline in mortality rates was not fully explained by improvements in immunologic-virologic status or other risk factors., (© The Author(s) 2024. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For commercial re-use, please contact reprints@oup.com for reprints and translation rights for reprints. All other permissions can be obtained through our RightsLink service via the Permissions link on the article page on our site—for further information please contact journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Recent studies have shown a decrease in CD4 count during adolescence in young people with perinatally acquired human immunodeficiency virus (HIV, PHIV)., Methods: Young people with PHIV in the United Kingdom, followed in the Collaborative HIV Paediatric Study who started antiretroviral therapy (ART) from 2000 onward were included. Changes in CD4 count over time from age 10 to 20 years were analyzed using mixed-effects models, and were compared to published CD4 data for the gerneral population. Potential predictors were examined and included demographics, age at ART start, nadir CD4 z score (age-adjusted) in childhood, and time-updated viral load., Results: Of 1258 young people with PHIV included, 669 (53%) were female, median age at ART initiation was 8.3 years, and the median nadir CD4 z score was -4.0. Mean CD4 count was higher in young people with PHIV who started ART before age 10 years and had a nadir CD4 z score ≥-4; these young people with PHIV had a decline in CD4 count after age 10 that was comparable to that of the general population. Mean CD4 count was lower in young people with PHIV who had started ART before age 10 and had a nadir CD4 z score <-4; for this group, the decline in CD4 count after age 10 was steeper over time., Conclusions: In children, in addition to starting ART at an early age, optimizing ART to maintain a higher CD4 z score during childhood may be important to maximizing immune reconstitution later in life., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. C. S. reports funding for membership on data and safety and monitoring boards advisory boards and for preparation of educational materials from Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, and MSD and a role as vice-chair (until the end of 2022) for the British HIV Association. C. F. reports research grants from ViiV Healthcare and Gilead Sciences. H. O. reports consulting fees to author from Gilead Sciences. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Randomized controlled trials (RCTs) from low- and middle-income settings suggested that early initiation of antiretroviral therapy (ART) leads to higher mortality rates among people with HIV (PWH) who present with cryptococcal meningitis (CM). There is limited information about the impact of ART timing on mortality rates in similar people in high-income settings., Methods: Data on ART-naive PWH with CM diagnosed from 1994 to 2012 from Europe/North America were pooled from the COHERE, NA-ACCORD, and CNICS HIV cohort collaborations. Follow-up was considered to span from the date of CM diagnosis to earliest of the following: death, last follow-up, or 6 months. We used marginal structural models to mimic an RCT comparing the effects of early (within 14 days of CM) and late (14-56 days after CM) ART on all-cause mortality, adjusting for potential confounders., Results: Of 190 participants identified, 33 (17%) died within 6 months. At CM diagnosis, their median age (interquartile range) was 38 (33-44) years; the median CD4+ T-cell count, 19/μL (10-56/μL); and median HIV viral load, 5.3 (4.9-5.6) log10 copies/mL. Most participants (n = 157 [83%]) were male, and 145 (76%) started ART. Mimicking an RCT, with 190 people in each group, there were 13 deaths among participants with an early ART regimen and 20 deaths among those with a late ART regimen. The crude and adjusted hazard ratios comparing late with early ART were 1.28 (95% confidence interval, .64-2.56) and 1.40 (.66-2.95), respectively., Conclusions: We found little evidence that early ART was associated with higher mortality rates among PWH presenting with CM in high-income settings, although confidence intervals were wide., Competing Interests: Potential conflicts of interest. J. M. M. has received consulting honoraria and/or research grants from AbbVie, Angelini, Contrafect, Cubist, Genentech, Gilead Sciences, Jansen, Medtronic, MSD, Novartis, Pfizer, and ViiV Healthcare, outside the submitted work, as well as consulting fees from Lysovant. L. E. C. has stock or stock options and is an employee of AbbVie. C. Sabin reports payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers, bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Gilead Sciences and ViiV Healthcare (payments to the author for preparation of educational materials); participation on a data and safety monitoring board (DSMB) or advisory board for Gilead Sciences and ViiV Healthcare (paid to the author); and service as vice chair of the British HIV Association. H. S. reports consulting fees from ViiV and MSD and payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers, bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from MSD, ViiV, and Gilead. P. R., through his institution, has received independent scientific grant support from Gilead Sciences, Janssen Pharmaceuticals, Merck, and ViiV Healthcare and has served on scientific advisory boards for Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, and Merck, honoraria for which were all paid to his institution (all support outside the submitted work). V. B. reports support for attending meetings and/or travel from Gilead and Janssen and has stock or stock options in DWS Biotech LC Fond (private self-investment; no payments to author or institution received from any third party). F. V. received research or teaching grants from Gilead Sciences, ViiV Healthcare, and MSD, unrelated to the submitted work. N. O. reports grants or contracts from Simonsens Fond (paid to the institution). A. M. reports travel support, lecture fees, honorarium and consultancy fees from ViiV, Gilead, Eiland, and Bonnin, all outside the submitted work. L. W. reports grants or contracts from ANRS MIE. R. T. reports a research grant from Gilead Science; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers, bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from Gilead Science (payment for lectures), Janssen (payment for lectures), and ViiV Healthcare (payment for lectures); support for travel from Gilead Science and Janssen; and participation on an advisory board for Gilead Science. A. D. M. reports consulting fees from ViiV, Gilead, and Janssen (paid to the author); payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers, bureaus, manuscript writing or educational events from Gilead and ViiV (paid to the author); and participation on a DSMB or advisory board for Janssen, Gilead, and ViiV (payment to the author). C. M. reports research grant from Gilead; payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers, bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events from ViiV and Gilead; and participation on a DSMB or advisory board for Corimuno, Gilead, ViiV, Janssen, and MSD. H. F.’s institution received educational grants from AbbVie, ViiV, Gilead, MSD, Sandoz, and Pfizer, all outside the submitted work. M. S. S. reports research grants from Gilead Sciences and ViiV Healthcare (paid to the institution); payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers, bureaus, manuscript writing; or educational events from IAS-USA (not-for-profit organization); serving on the DSMB for the I-Spy COVID trial; and serving as board chair for IAS-USA. H. M. C. reports grants or contracts from the National Institutes of Health (NIH), the Agency for Healthcare Research and Quality, and ViiV (paid to institution); consulting fees from ViiV (pending); and participation on the Office of AIDS Research Scientific Advisory Board. J. J. E. reports grants or contracts from ViiV Healthcare, Gilead Sciences, and Janssen; consulting fees from Merck, ViiV Healthcare, Gilead Science, and Janssen; and leadership or fiduciary roles in other boards, societies, committees, or advocacy groups for the IAS-USA antiretroviral therapy guidelines committee. K. N. A. reports grants or contracts from the NIH (paid to institution), royalties or licenses from Coursera, consulting fees from the NIH (for the All of US Study), and payment or honoraria for lectures, presentations, speakers, bureaus, manuscript writing, or educational events for DC HIV Cohort (author served on the DC HIV Cohort’s external advisory board). M. J. G. reports consulting fees from Merck, Gilead, and ViiV (with occasional honoraria for ad hoc membership on human immunodeficiency virus advisory boards). H. C. B., in the 36 months before the submission of the current manuscript, has received grants, support for traveling, consultancy fees, and honoraria from Gilead, BMS, ViiV Healthcare, Roche, and Pfizer, unrelated to the current work. He served as the president of the Association Contre le HIV et Autres Infections Transmissibles until June 2022; in this function he received support for the Swiss HIV Cohort Study from ViiV Healthcare, Gilead, BMS, and MSD. All other authors report no potential conflicts. All authors have submitted the ICMJE Form for Disclosure of Potential Conflicts of Interest. Conflicts that the editors consider relevant to the content of the manuscript have been disclosed., (© The Author(s) 2023. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Relations between different measures of human immunodeficiency virus-related immunosuppression and chronic kidney disease (CKD) remain unknown., Methods: Immunosuppression measures included baseline, current, time-lagged and nadir CD4, years and percentage of follow-up (%FU) with CD4 ≤200 cells/μL, and CD4 recovery. CKD was defined as confirmed estimated glomerular filtration rate <60 mL/minute/1.73 m2., Results: Of 33 791 persons, 2226 developed CKD. Univariably, all immunosuppression measures predicted CKD. Multivariably, the strongest predictor was %FU CD4 ≤200 cells/μL (0 vs >25%; incidence rate ratio [IRR], 0.77 [95% confidence interval [CI], .68-.88]), with highest effect in those at low D:A:D CKD risk (IRR, 0.45 [95% CI, .24-.80]) vs 0.80 [95% CI, .70-.93])., Conclusions: Longer immunosuppression duration most strongly predicts CKD and affects persons at low CKD risk more., (© The Author(s) 2020. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: It is unclear whether use of contemporary protease inhibitors pose a similar risk of chronic kidney disease (CKD) as use of older protease inhibitors., Methods: Participants in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study were followed up until the earliest occurrence of CKD, the last visit plus 6 months, or 1 February 2016. Adjusted Poisson regression was used to assess associations between CKD and the use of ritonavir-boosted atazanavir (ATV/r) or ritonavir-boosted darunavir (DRV/r)., Results: The incidence of CKD (10.0/1000 person-years of follow-up; 95% confidence interval, 9.5-10.4/1000 person-years of follow-up) increased gradually with increasing exposure to ATV/r, but the relation was less clear for DRV/r. After adjustment, only exposure to ATV/r (adjusted incidence rate ratio, 1.4; 95% confidence interval, 1.2-1.6), but not exposure to DRV/r (1.0; .8-1.3), remained significantly associated with CKD., Conclusion: While DRV/r use was not significantly associated with CKD an increasing incidence with longer ATV/r use was confirmed., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For permissions, e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Drug-resistant minority variants (DRMinVs) detected in patients who recently acquired human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) can be transmitted, generated de novo through virus replication, or technical errors. The first form is likely to persist and result in treatment failure, while the latter two could be stochastic and transient., Methods: Ultradeep sequencing of plasma samples from 835 individuals with recent HIV-1 infection in the United Kingdom was performed to detect DRMinVs at a mutation frequency between 2% and 20%. Sequence alignments including >110 000 HIV-1 partial pol consensus sequences from the UK HIV Drug Resistance Database (UK-HDRD), linked to epidemiological and clinical data from the HIV and AIDS Reporting System, were used for transmission cluster analysis. Transmission clusters were identified using Cluster Picker with a clade support of >90% and maximum genetic distances of 4.5% or 1.5%, the latter to limit detection to likely direct transmission events., Results: Drug-resistant majority variants (DRMajVs) were detected in 66 (7.9%) and DRMinVs in 84 (10.1%) of the recently infected individuals. High levels of clustering to sequences in UK-HDRD were observed for both DRMajV (n = 48; 72.7%) and DRMinV (n = 63; 75.0%) sequences. Of these, 43 (65.2%) with DRMajVs were in a transmission cluster with sequences that harbored the same DR mutation compared to only 3 (3.6%) sequences with DRMinVs (P < .00001, Fisher exact test). Evidence of likely direct transmission of DRMajVs was observed for 25/66 (37.9%), whereas none were observed for the DRMinVs (P < .00001)., Conclusions: Using a densely sampled HIV-infected population, we show no evidence of DRMinV transmission among recently infected individuals., (© Crown copyright 2018.)

Effect estimates from randomized trials and observational studies might not be directly comparable because of differences in study design, other than randomization, and in data analysis. We propose a 3-step procedure to facilitate meaningful comparisons of effect estimates from randomized trials and observational studies: 1) harmonization of the study protocols (eligibility criteria, treatment strategies, outcome, start and end of follow-up, causal contrast) so that the studies target the same causal effect, 2) harmonization of the data analysis to estimate the causal effect, and 3) sensitivity analyses to investigate the impact of discrepancies that could not be accounted for in the harmonization process. To illustrate our approach, we compared estimates of the effect of immediate with deferred initiation of antiretroviral therapy in individuals positive for the human immunodeficiency virus from the Strategic Timing of Antiretroviral Therapy (START) randomized trial and the observational HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration., (© The Author(s) 2019. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health. All rights reserved. For permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Objectives: In subjects with transmitted thymidine analogue mutations (TAMs), boosted PIs (PI/b) are often chosen to overcome possible resistance to the NRTI backbone. However, data to guide treatment selection are limited. Our aim was to obtain firmer guidance for clinical practice using real-world cohort data., Methods: We analysed 1710 subjects who started a PI/b in combination with tenofovir or abacavir plus emtricitabine or lamivudine, and compared their virological outcomes with those of 4889 patients who started an NNRTI (predominantly efavirenz), according to the presence of ≥1 TAM as the sole form of transmitted drug resistance., Results: Participants with ≥1 TAM comprised predominantly MSM (213 of 269, 79.2%), subjects of white ethnicity (206 of 269, 76.6%) and HIV-1 subtype B infections (234 of 269, 87.0%). Most (203 of 269, 75.5%) had singleton TAMs, commonly a revertant of T215Y or T215F (112 of 269, 41.6%). Over a median of 2.5 years of follow-up, 834 of 6599 (12.6%) subjects experienced viraemia (HIV-1 RNA >50 copies/mL). The adjusted HR for viraemia was 2.17 with PI/b versus NNRTI-based therapy (95% CI 1.88-2.51; P < 0.001). Other independent predictors of viraemia included injecting drug use, black ethnicity, higher viral load and lower CD4 cell count at baseline, and receiving abacavir instead of tenofovir. Resistance showed no overall impact (adjusted HR 0.77 with ≥1 TAM versus no resistance; 95% CI 0.54-1.10; P = 0.15)., Conclusions: In this cohort, patients harbouring ≥1 TAM as the sole form of transmitted drug resistance gained no apparent virological advantage from starting first-line ART with a PI/b., (© The Author(s) 2018. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.)

Background: Cancers are a major source of morbidity and mortality for human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected persons, but the clinical benefits of smoking cessation are unknown., Methods: Participants were followed from 1 January 2004 until first cancer diagnosis, death, or 1 February 2016. Smoking status was defined as ex-smoker, current smoker, and never smoker. Adjusted incidence rate ratios (aIRRs) were calculated using Poisson regression, adjusting for demographic and clinical factors., Results: In total 35442 persons from the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study contributed 309803 person-years of follow-up. At baseline, 49% were current smokers, 21% were ex-smokers, and 30% had never smoked. Incidence of all cancers combined (n = 2183) was highest <1 year after smoking cessation compared to never smokers (aIRR, 1.66 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.37-2.02]) and not significantly different from never smokers 1-1.9 years after cessation. Lung cancer incidence (n = 271) was elevated <1 year after cessation (aIRR, 19.08 [95% CI, 8.10-44.95]) and remained 8-fold higher 5 years after smoking cessation (aIRR, 8.69 [95% CI, 3.40-22.18]). Incidence of other smoking-related cancers (n = 622) was elevated in the first year after cessation (aIRR, 2.06 [95% CI, 1.42-2.99]) and declined to a level similar to nonsmokers thereafter., Conclusions: Lung cancer incidence in HIV-infected individuals remained elevated >5 years after smoking cessation. Deterring uptake of smoking and smoking cessation efforts should be prioritised to reduce future cancer risk.

Background: Non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL) and Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) are increased in populations with immune dysfunction, including people living with HIV; however, there is little evidence for to what degree immunological and virological factors differently affect NHL and HL risk., Methods: Data from the Data Collection on Adverse events of Anti-HIV Drugs Study cohort were analyzed to identify independent risk factors for NHL and HL using hazard ratios (HRs), focusing on current and cumulative area under the curve (AUC) measures of immunological and virological status. Variables with different associations with NHL and HL were identified using marginal Cox models. All statistical tests were two-sided., Results: Among 41 420 people followed for 337 020 person-years, 392 developed NHL (incidence rate = 1.17/1000 person-years of follow-up [PYFU], 95% confidence interval [CI] = 1.06 to 1.30) and 149 developed HL (incidence rate = 0.44/1000 PYFU, 95% CI = 0.38 to 0.52). Higher risk of both NHL and HL was associated with lower current CD4 cell count (adjusted HR [aHR] of NHL for CD4 <100 vs > 599 cells/mm3 = 8.08, 95% CI = 5.63 to 11.61; HL = 4.58, 95% CI = 2.22 to 9.45), whereas higher current HIV viral load (aHR of NHL for HIV-VL >1000 vs < 50 copies/mL = 1.97, 95% CI = 1.50 to 2.59) and higher AUC of HIV-VL (aHR of NHL for highest vs lowest quintile = 2.91, 95% CI = 1.92 to 4.41) were associated with NHL only. Both current and AUC of HIV-VL were factors that had different associations with NHL and HL, where the hazard ratio for NHL was progressively higher than for HL with increasing HIV-VL category. Lower current CD4 cell count had a strong but similar association with both NHL and HL., Conclusions: CD4 depletion increased risk of both types of lymphomas while current and accumulated HIV-VL was associated with NHL only. This suggests that NHL development is related to both CD4 cell depletion and added immune dysfunction derived from ongoing HIV replication. This latter factor was not associated with HL risk.

Background: The International Study Group of Pancreatic Surgery (ISGPS) recommends operative exploration and resection of pancreatic cancers in the presence of reconstructable mesentericoportal axis involvement. However, there is no consensus on the ideal method of vascular reconstruction. The effect of depth of tumour invasion of the vessel wall on outcome is also unknown., Methods: This was a retrospective cohort study of pancreaticoduodenectomy with vein resection for T3 adenocarcinoma of the head of the pancreas across nine centres. Outcome measures were overall survival based on the impact of the depth of tumour infiltration of the vessel wall, and morbidity, in-hospital mortality and overall survival between types of venous reconstruction: primary closure, end-to-end anastomosis and interposition graft., Results: A total of 229 patients underwent portal vein resection; 129 (56·3 per cent) underwent primary closure, 64 (27·9 per cent) had an end-to-end anastomosis and 36 (15·7 per cent) an interposition graft. There was no difference in overall morbidity (26 (20·2 per cent), 14 (22 per cent) and 9 (25 per cent) respectively; P = 0·817) or in-hospital mortality (6 (4·7 per cent), 2 (3 per cent) and 2 (6 per cent); P = 0·826) between the three groups. One hundred and six patients (47·5 per cent) had histological evidence of vein involvement; 59 (26·5 per cent) had superficial invasion (tunica adventitia) and 47 (21·1 per cent) had deep invasion (tunica media or intima). Median survival was 18·8 months for patients who had primary closure, 27·6 months for those with an end-to-end anastomosis and 13·0 months among patients with an interposition graft. There was no significant difference in median survival between patients with superficial, deep or no histological vein involvement (20·8, 21·3 and 13·3 months respectively; P = 0·111). Venous tumour infiltration was not associated with decreased overall survival on multivariable analysis., Conclusion: In this study, there was no difference in morbidity between the three modes of venous reconstruction, and overall survival was similar regardless of tumour infiltration of the vein., (© 2017 BJS Society Ltd Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objectives: HIV-1 subtype C might have a greater propensity to develop K65R mutations in patients with virological failure compared with other subtypes. However, the strong association between viral subtype and confounding factors such as exposure groups and ethnicity affects the calculation of this propensity. We exploited the diversity of viral subtypes within the UK to undertake a direct comparative analysis., Patients and Methods: We analysed only sequences with major IAS-defined mutations from patients with virological failure. Prevalence of K65R was related to subtype and exposure to the NRTIs that primarily select for this mutation (tenofovir, abacavir, didanosine and stavudine). A multivariate logistic regression model quantified the effect of subtype on the prevalence of K65R, adjusting for previous and current exposure to all four specified drugs., Results: Subtype B patients ( n  =   3410) were mostly MSM (78%) and those with subtype C ( n  =   810) were mostly heterosexual (82%). K65R was detected in 7.8% of subtype B patients compared with 14.2% of subtype C patients. The subtype difference in K65R prevalence was observed irrespective of NRTI exposure and K65R was frequently selected by abacavir, didanosine and stavudine in patients with no previous exposure to tenofovir. Multivariate logistic regression confirmed that K65R was significantly more common in subtype C viruses (adjusted OR = 2.02, 95% CI = 1.55-2.62, P  <   0.001)., Conclusions: Patients with subtype C HIV-1 have approximately double the frequency of K65R in our database compared with other subtypes. The exact clinical implications of this finding need to be further elucidated., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the British Society for Antimicrobial Chemotherapy.)

Background.: The Joint United Nations Programme on HIV/AIDS (UNAIDS) has set a "90-90-90" target to curb the human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) epidemic by 2020, but methods used to assess whether countries have reached this target are not standardized, hindering comparisons., Methods.: Through a collaboration formed by the European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ECDC) with European HIV cohorts and surveillance agencies, we constructed a standardized, 4-stage continuum of HIV care for 11 European Union countries for 2013. Stages were defined as (1) number of people living with HIV in the country by end of 2013; (2) proportion of stage 1 ever diagnosed; (3) proportion of stage 2 that ever initiated ART; and (4) proportion of stage 3 who became virally suppressed (≤200 copies/mL). Case surveillance data were used primarily to derive stages 1 (using back-calculation models) and 2, and cohort data for stages 3 and 4., Results.: In 2013, 674500 people in the 11 countries were estimated to be living with HIV, ranging from 5500 to 153400 in each country. Overall HIV prevalence was 0.22% (range, 0.09%-0.36%). Overall proportions of each previous stage were 84% diagnosed, 84% on ART, and 85% virally suppressed (60% of people living with HIV). Two countries achieved ≥90% for all stages, and more than half had reached ≥90% for at least 1 stage., Conclusions.: European Union countries are nearing the 90-90-90 target. Reducing the proportion undiagnosed remains the greatest barrier to achieving this target, suggesting that further efforts are needed to improve HIV testing rates. Standardizing methods to derive comparable continuums of care remains a challenge., (© The Author 2017. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: The pathogenesis and natural history of HIV-associated immune complex kidney disease (HIVICK) is not well understood. Key questions remain unanswered, including the role of HIV infection and replication in disease development and the efficacy of antiretroviral therapy (ART) in the prevention and treatment of disease., Methods: In this multicentre study, we describe the renal pathology of HIVICK and compare the clinical characteristics of patients with HIVICK with those with IgA nephropathy and HIV-associated nephropathy (HIVAN). Poisson regression models were used to identify risk factors for each of these pathologies., Results: Between 1998 and 2012, 65 patients were diagnosed with HIVICK, 27 with IgA nephropathy and 70 with HIVAN. Black ethnicity and HIV RNA were associated with HIVICK, receipt of ART with IgA nephropathy and black ethnicity and CD4 cell count with HIVAN. HIVICK was associated with lower rates of progression to end-stage kidney disease compared with HIVAN and IgA nephropathy (P < 0.0001). Patients with HIVICK who initiated ART and achieved suppression of HIV RNA experienced improvements in estimated glomerular filtration rate and proteinuria., Conclusions: These findings suggest a pathogenic role for HIV replication in the development of HIVICK and that ART may improve kidney function in patients who have detectable HIV RNA at the time of HIVICK diagnosis. Our data also suggest that IgA nephropathy should be viewed as a separate entity and not included in the HIVICK spectrum., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of ERA-EDTA. All rights reserved.)

Concern has been expressed that tenofovir-containing regimens may have reduced effectiveness in the treatment of human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) subtype C infections because of a propensity for these viruses to develop a key tenofovir-associated resistance mutation. We evaluated whether subtype influenced rates of virological failure in a cohort of 8746 patients from the United Kingdom who received a standard tenofovir-containing first-line regimen and were followed for a median of 3.3 years. In unadjusted analyses, the rate of failure was approximately 2-fold higher among patients infected with subtype C virus as compared to those with subtype B virus (hazard ratio [HR], 1.86; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.50-2.31; P < .001). However, the increased risk was greatly attenuated in analyses adjusting for demographic and clinical factors (adjusted HR, 1.14; 95% CI, .83-1.58; P = .41). There were no differences between subtypes C and subtypes non-B and non-C in either univariate or multivariate analysis. These observations imply there is no intrinsic effect of viral subtype on the efficacy of tenofovir-containing regimens., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: We report on the hepatitis C virus (HCV) epidemic among human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive men who have sex with men (MSM) in the United Kingdom and model its trajectory with or without scaled-up HCV direct-acting antivirals (DAAs)., Methods: A dynamic HCV transmission model among HIV-diagnosed MSM in the United Kingdom was calibrated to HCV prevalence (antibody [Ab] or RNA positive), incidence, and treatment from 2004 to 2011 among HIV-diagnosed MSM in the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (UK CHIC). The epidemic was projected with current or scaled-up HCV treatment, with or without a 20% behavioral risk reduction., Results: HCV prevalence among HIV-positive MSM in UK CHIC increased from 7.3% in 2004 to 9.9% in 2011, whereas primary incidence was flat (1.02-1.38 per 100 person-years). Over the next decade, modeling suggests 94% of infections are attributable to high-risk individuals, comprising 7% of the population. Without treatment, HCV chronic prevalence could have been 38% higher in 2015 (11.9% vs 8.6%). With current treatment and sustained virological response rates (status quo), chronic prevalence is likely to increase to 11% by 2025, but stabilize with DAA introduction in 2015. With DAA scale-up to 80% within 1 year of diagnosis (regardless of disease stage), and 20% per year thereafter, chronic prevalence could decline by 71% (to 3.2%) compared to status quo in 2025. With additional behavioral interventions, chronic prevalence could decline further to <2.5% by 2025., Conclusions: Epidemiological data and modeling suggest a continuing HCV epidemic among HIV-diagnosed MSM in the United Kingdom driven by high-risk individuals, despite high treatment rates. Substantial reductions in HCV transmission could be achieved through scale-up of DAAs and moderately effective behavioral interventions., (© The Author 2016. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: With the aging of the population living with HIV, the absolute risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) is increasing. There is a need to further facilitate the identification of persons at elevated risk in routine practice., Methods and Results: Prospective information was collected on 32,663 HIV-positive persons from 20 countries in Europe and Australia, who were free of CVD at entry into the Data-collection on Adverse Effects of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. Cox regression models (full and reduced) were developed that predict the risk of a global CVD endpoint. The predictive performance of the D:A:D models were compared with a recent CVD prediction model from the Framingham study, which was assessed recalibrated to the D:A:D dataset. A total of 1010 CVD events occurred during 186,364.5 person-years. The full D:A:D CVD prediction model included age, gender, systolic blood pressure, smoking status, family history of CVD, diabetes, total cholesterol, high-density lipoprotein, CD4 lymphocyte count, cumulative exposure to protease- and nucleoside reverse transcriptase-inhibitors, and current use of abacavir. A reduced model omitted antiretroviral therapies. The D:A:D models statistically significantly predicted risk more accurately than the recalibrated Framingham model (Harrell's c-statistic of 0.791, 0.783 and 0.766 for the D:A:D full, D:A:D reduced, and Framingham models respectively; p < 0.001). The D:A:D models also more accurately predicted five-year CVD-risk for key prognostic subgroups., Conclusions: An updated, easily recalibrated, global CVD-risk equation tailored to HIV-positive persons was developed using routinely collected CVD risk parameters and incorporating markers on immune function (CD4 lymphocyte count), and exposure to antiretroviral therapies. The estimated CVD risk can be used to quantify risk and to guide preventive care., (© The European Society of Cardiology 2015.)

Background: Current clinical guidelines consider regimens consisting of either ritonavir-boosted atazanavir or ritonavir-boosted lopinavir and a nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitor (NRTI) backbone among their recommended and alternative first-line antiretroviral regimens. However, these guidelines are based on limited evidence from randomized clinical trials and clinical experience., Methods: We compared these regimens with respect to clinical, immunologic, and virologic outcomes using data from prospective studies of human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals in Europe and the United States in the HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration, 2004-2013. Antiretroviral therapy-naive and AIDS-free individuals were followed from the time they started a lopinavir or an atazanavir regimen. We estimated the 'intention-to-treat' effect for atazanavir vs lopinavir regimens on each of the outcomes., Results: A total of 6668 individuals started a lopinavir regimen (213 deaths, 457 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths), and 4301 individuals started an atazanavir regimen (83 deaths, 157 AIDS-defining illnesses or deaths). The adjusted intention-to-treat hazard ratios for atazanavir vs lopinavir regimens were 0.70 (95% confidence interval [CI], .53-.91) for death, 0.67 (95% CI, .55-.82) for AIDS-defining illness or death, and 0.91 (95% CI, .84-.99) for virologic failure at 12 months. The mean 12-month increase in CD4 count was 8.15 (95% CI, -.13 to 16.43) cells/µL higher in the atazanavir group. Estimates differed by NRTI backbone., Conclusions: Our estimates are consistent with a lower mortality, a lower incidence of AIDS-defining illness, a greater 12-month increase in CD4 cell count, and a smaller risk of virologic failure at 12 months for atazanavir compared with lopinavir regimens., (© The Author 2015. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Infectious Diseases Society of America. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Some human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-infected individuals initiating combination antiretroviral therapy (cART) with low CD4 counts achieve viral suppression but not CD4 cell recovery. We aimed to identify (1) risk factors for failure to achieve CD4 count >200 cells/µL after 3 years of sustained viral suppression and (2) the association of the achieved CD4 count with subsequent mortality., Methods: We included treated HIV-infected adults from 2 large international HIV cohorts, who had viral suppression (≤500 HIV type 1 RNA copies/mL) for >3 years with CD4 count ≤200 cells/µL at start of the suppressed period. Logistic regression was used to identify risk factors for incomplete CD4 recovery (≤200 cells/µL) and Cox regression to identify associations with mortality., Results: Of 5550 eligible individuals, 835 (15%) did not reach a CD4 count >200 cells/µL after 3 years of suppression. Increasing age, lower initial CD4 count, male heterosexual and injection drug use transmission, cART initiation after 1998, and longer time from initiation of cART to start of the virally suppressed period were risk factors for not achieving a CD4 count >200 cells/µL. Individuals with CD4 ≤200 cells/µL after 3 years of viral suppression had substantially increased mortality (adjusted hazard ratio, 2.60; 95% confidence interval, 1.86-3.61) compared with those who achieved CD4 count >200 cells/µL. The increased mortality was seen across different patient groups and for all causes of death., Conclusions: Virally suppressed HIV-positive individuals on cART who do not achieve a CD4 count >200 cells/µL have substantially increased long-term mortality.

Objectives: The pharmacokinetic and pharmacodynamic effects of antiretroviral therapy may differ in older compared with younger subjects with HIV infection. We aimed to assess factors associated with plasma antiretroviral drug exposure, including age, within a large HIV-infected cohort undergoing therapeutic drug monitoring (TDM)., Methods: Data from the Liverpool TDM Registry were linked with the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) Study. All TDM of protease inhibitors (PIs) and non-nucleoside reverse transcriptase inhibitors (NNRTIs) was included and in order to account for different antiretroviral drugs the plasma concentrations were standardized by group measurements according to drug, dosing and timing of TDM. Regression modelling was used to evaluate associations of drug exposure with age and clinical parameters, including hepatic transaminase results and time to antiretroviral treatment modification., Results: Data from 3589 TDM samples were available from 2447 subjects. The greatest numbers of plasma concentrations were assessed for lopinavir (22.4%), efavirenz (18.5%), atazanavir (17.0%) and saquinavir (11.6%). As age increased, median standardized NNRTI concentrations remained constant, whereas PI concentrations increased (correlation coefficient 0.04, P = 0.033). In a regression analysis stratified by antiretroviral drug class, standardized plasma concentrations were significantly associated with age for PIs (0.05 increase in standard deviation of drug concentration with each 10 year increase in age, P = 0.044), but not for NNRTIs or other clinical parameters, including hepatic transaminase results or time to antiretroviral treatment modification., Conclusions: With increasing age, statistically significant rises in plasma PI exposure, but not NNRTI exposure, were observed. The clinical relevance of this observation merits further investigation.

Background: Renal dysfunction is common in HIV-positive patients, and guidelines suggest regular monitoring of renal function with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and urinalysis. It is unknown whether Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiological Collaboration (CKD-EPI) or Modification of Diet in Renal Disease (MDRD) provide better estimates of glomerular filtration rate (GFR) in this population., Methods: We compared the CKD-EPI and MDRD equations to estimate GFR at baseline in 20,132 HIV-positive individuals in the UK CHIC cohort. Kappa statistics and Bland-Altman plots were used to assess agreement between the two estimates and Kaplan-Meier plots and Cox regression analysis to describe mortality patterns., Results: At baseline, median eGFR was 100 (87, 112) (CKD-EPI) and 94 (83, 108) (MDRD) (mL/min/1.73 m(2)). Good overall agreement between CKD-EPI- and MDRD-defined eGFR bands was observed (Kappa = 0.71, 95% confidence interval: 0.70-0.72). Of the 367 patients with eGFR MDRD 30-59, 57 (15.5%) were categorized as eGFR 60-89 by CKD-EPI. After adjustment for covariates, eGFR <60 (CKD-EPI), eGFR <30 (MDRD) and eGFR ≥105 (both formulae) were significantly associated with an increased risk of death. Mortality in patients classified as having eGFR 60-89 by CKD-EPI and eGFR 30-59 by MDRD more closely resembled mortality of patients who had eGFR 60-89 by both formulae., Conclusions: MDRD and CKD-EPI equations showed a high degree of agreement in stratifying patients by baseline eGFR. CKD-EPI estimates of GFR <60 at baseline are more strongly associated with mortality than MDRD estimates of GFR <60, supporting the concept that MDRD may have overestimated the severity of renal impairment in these patients. Our findings support the use of CKD-EPI in HIV-positive individuals.

Background: The lower tuberculosis incidence reported in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV)-positive individuals receiving combined antiretroviral therapy (cART) is difficult to interpret causally. Furthermore, the role of unmasking immune reconstitution inflammatory syndrome (IRIS) is unclear. We aim to estimate the effect of cART on tuberculosis incidence in HIV-positive individuals in high-income countries., Methods: The HIV-CAUSAL Collaboration consisted of 12 cohorts from the United States and Europe of HIV-positive, ART-naive, AIDS-free individuals aged ≥18 years with baseline CD4 cell count and HIV RNA levels followed up from 1996 through 2007. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for cART versus no cART, adjusted for time-varying CD4 cell count and HIV RNA level via inverse probability weighting., Results: Of 65 121 individuals, 712 developed tuberculosis over 28 months of median follow-up (incidence, 3.0 cases per 1000 person-years). The HR for tuberculosis for cART versus no cART was 0.56 (95% confidence interval [CI], 0.44-0.72) overall, 1.04 (95% CI, 0.64-1.68) for individuals aged >50 years, and 1.46 (95% CI, 0.70-3.04) for people with a CD4 cell count of <50 cells/μL. Compared with people who had not started cART, HRs differed by time since cART initiation: 1.36 (95% CI, 0.98-1.89) for initiation <3 months ago and 0.44 (95% CI, 0.34-0.58) for initiation ≥3 months ago. Compared with people who had not initiated cART, HRs <3 months after cART initiation were 0.67 (95% CI, 0.38-1.18), 1.51 (95% CI, 0.98-2.31), and 3.20 (95% CI, 1.34-7.60) for people <35, 35-50, and >50 years old, respectively, and 2.30 (95% CI, 1.03-5.14) for people with a CD4 cell count of <50 cells/μL., Conclusions: Tuberculosis incidence decreased after cART initiation but not among people >50 years old or with CD4 cell counts of <50 cells/μL. Despite an overall decrease in tuberculosis incidence, the increased rate during 3 months of ART suggests unmasking IRIS.

Background: Using data from a large European collaborative study, we aimed to identify the circumstances in which treated HIV-infected individuals will experience similar mortality rates to those of the general population., Methods: Adults were eligible if they initiated combination anti-retroviral treatment (cART) between 1998 and 2008 and had one prior CD4 measurement within 6 months. Standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) and excess mortality rates compared with the general population were estimated using Poisson regression. Periods of follow-up were classified according to the current CD4 count., Results: Of the 80 642 individuals, 70% were men, 16% were injecting drug users (IDUs), the median age was 37 years, median CD4 count 225/mm(3) at cART initiation and median follow-up was 3.5 years. The overall mortality rate was 1.2/100 person-years (PY) (men: 1.3, women: 0.9), 4.2 times as high as that in the general population (SMR for men: 3.8, for women: 7.4). Among 35 316 individuals with a CD4 count ≥500/mm(3), the mortality rate was 0.37/100 PY (SMR 1.5); mortality rates were similar to those of the general population in non-IDU men [SMR 0.9, 95% confidence interval (95% CI) 0.7-1.3] and, after 3 years, in women (SMR 1.1, 95% CI 0.7-1.7). Mortality rates in IDUs remained elevated, though a trend to decrease with longer durations with high CD4 count was seen. A prior AIDS diagnosis was associated with higher mortality., Conclusions: Mortality patterns in most non-IDU HIV-infected individuals with high CD4 counts on cART are similar to those in the general population. The persistent role of a prior AIDS diagnosis underlines the importance of early diagnosis of HIV infection.

Introduction: The CD4 count and CD4 percentage (CD4%) are both strong predictors of clinical disease progression in human immunodeficiency virus (HIV). Although individuals may show discordancy between their CD4 count and CD4%, the clinical relevance of this is unclear., Methods: Discordancy was defined where the CD4% was ≤10th percentile for a selected CD4 count range (referred to as low discordancy), within the central 80% range (concordant), or ≥90th percentile (high discordancy). Regression methods identified factors associated with low and high discordancy in untreated individuals and assessed the impact of discordancy on treatment responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART)., Results: High discordancy was associated with female sex, low viral load, and white ethnicity; low discordancy was associated with black or nonwhite ethnicity, older age, and injection drug use. Clinical event rates were higher in individuals with high discordancy starting HAART, but there was no association with subsequent HIV progression by 6 months after starting HAART. CD4 count increases remained lower, by 20 cells/mm(3), in individuals with low discordancy, and higher, by 27 cells/mm(3), in those with high discordancy., Conclusions: Overall discrepancies between the CD4/CD4% are small, confirming the use of absolute CD4 counts as a monitoring tool.

Concerns have arisen about possible effects of protease inhibitors (PIs) on cardiac conductivity. We found no significant association between current or recent PI exposure and sudden death or nonhemorrhagic stroke (adjusted rate ratio, 1.22; 95% confidence interval, .95-1.57), whereas cumulative exposure to PIs was associated with an increased risk (adjusted rate ratio, 1.06 per year of exposure; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.11).

BACKGROUND. The risk of myocardial infarction (MI) in patients with human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection has been assessed in 13 anti-HIV drugs in the Data Collection on Adverse Events of Anti-HIV Drugs (D:A:D) study. METHODS. Poisson regression models were adjusted for cardiovascular risk factors, cohort, calendar year, and use of other antiretroviral drugs and assessed the association between MI risk and cumulative (per year) or recent (current or in the past 6 months) use of antiretroviral drugs, with >30,000 person-years of exposure. RESULTS. Over 178,835 person-years, 580 patients developed MI. There were no associations between use of tenofovir, zalcitabine, zidovudine, stavudine, or lamivudine and MI risk. Recent exposure to abacavir or didanosine was associated with an increased risk of MI. No association was found between MI risk and cumulative exposure to nevirapine, efavirenz, nelfinavir, or saquinavir. Cumulative exposure to indinavir and lopinavir-ritonavir was associated with an increased risk of MI (relative rate [RR] per year, 1.12 and 1.13, respectively). These increased risks were attenuated slightly (RR per year, 1.08 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 1.02-1.14] and 1.09 [95% CI, 1.01-1.17], respectively) after adjustment for lipids but were not altered further after adjustment for other metabolic parameters. CONCLUSIONS. Of the drugs considered, only indinavir, lopinavir-ritonavir, didanosine, and abacavir were associated with a significantly increased risk of MI. As with any observational study, our findings must be interpreted with caution (given the potential for confounding) and in the context of the benefits that these drugs provide.

Background: The protease inhibitors lopinavir and atazanavir are both recommended for treatment of HIV-infected patients. Considerable inter-individual variability in plasma concentration has been observed for both drugs. The aim of this study was to evaluate which demographic factors and concomitant drugs are associated with lopinavir and atazanavir plasma concentration., Methods: Data from the Liverpool TDM (therapeutic drug monitoring) Registry were linked with the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort (CHIC) study. For each patient, the first measurement of lopinavir (twice daily) or atazanavir [once daily, ritonavir boosted (/r) or unboosted] plasma concentration was included. Linear regression was used to evaluate the association of dose, gender, age, weight, ethnicity and concomitant antiretroviral drugs or rifabutin with log-transformed drug concentration, adjusted for time since last intake., Results: Data from 439 patients on lopinavir (69% 400 mg/r, 31% 533 mg/r; 3% concomitant rifabutin) and 313 on atazanavir (60% 300 mg/r, 32% 400 mg/r, 8% 400 mg) were included. Multivariable models revealed the following predictors for lopinavir concentration: weight (11% decrease per additional 10 kg; P = 0.001); dose (25% increase for 533 mg/r; P = 0.024); and rifabutin (116% increase; P < 0.001). For atazanavir the predictors were dose (compared with 300 mg/r: 40% increase for 400 mg/r, 67% decrease for 400 mg; overall P < 0.001) and efavirenz (32% decrease; P = 0.016) but not tenofovir (P = 0.54)., Conclusions: This analysis confirms that efavirenz decreases atazanavir concentrations, and there was a negative association of weight and lopinavir concentrations. The strong impact of rifabutin on lopinavir concentration should be studied further.

Patients with a baseline viral load >100,000 copies/mL receiving abacavir (ABC) as part of the nucleoside-backbone component of their first highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART) regimen have been reported to have a greater failure rate than those receiving tenofovir (TDF). We analyzed short-term outcomes of the use of HAART combinations that included ABC or TDF. The mean 2-8-week change in viral load was calculated using linear regression. In total, 1136 patients started ABC, and 412 started TDF. After adjustment for baseline viral load and other factors, there was no difference in the change in viral load between the patients who started ABC and those who started TDF (0.03 [95% confidence interval, -0.07 to 0.12]) log copies/mL; P = .59). Furthermore, there was no evidence that this effect differed according to baseline viral load (P = .88 for the interaction between pre-HAART viral load and nucleoside started). Likewise, there was no difference in rates of virological failure between the 2 drugs at 24-48 weeks after starting HAART.

Background: It has been proposed that subtype-related human immunodeficiency virus type 1 (HIV-1) variability may influence virologic and immunologic responses to highly active antiretroviral therapy (HAART). Studies to date, however, have described treatment outcomes predominantly in persons with subtype B infection or compared subtype B with diverse non-B subtypes grouped together., Methods: With use of data from the linked UK Collaborative Group on HIV Drug Resistance and the UK Collaborative HIV Cohort Study databases, time to viral load undetectability (viral load, <50 copies/mL), time to virologic rebound (viral load, >1000 copies/mL), and increases in the CD4 cell count were compared for a median of 39 months (interquartile range, 23-67 months) in drug-naive patients infected with subtype B (n=1550), subtype C (n=272), subtype A (n=66), circulating recombinant form AG (n=57), or subtype D (n=41) disease who started HAART., Results: Overall, 1906 (90%) of 2116 patients achieved viral load undetectability within 12 months after they started HAART, of whom 335 (18%) subsequently experienced virologic rebound. In adjusted analyses, viral load suppression occurred more rapidly in patients infected with subtype C (hazard ratio, 1.16; 95% confidence interval, 1.01-1.33; P=.04) and subtype A (hazard ratio, 1.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.04-1.74; P=.02) relative to subtype B infection. The virologic rebound occurred marginally more rapidly in patients with subtype C infection (hazard ratio, 1.40; 95% confidence interval, 1.00-1.95; P=.05), but the hazard of virologic rebound was similar with other subtypes. Although persons with subtype B infection showed higher baseline CD4 cell counts and maintained the advantage throughout therapy, CD4 cell count recovery occurred at similar rates with all subtypes., Conclusions: Patients infected with prevalent non-B subtypes were as likely to achieve viral load suppression as persons infected with subtype B and showed comparable rates of CD4 cell count recovery. HAART achieves excellent outcomes regardless of the infecting subtype.

Background: The extent to which mortality differs following individual acquired immunodeficiency syndrome (AIDS)-defining events (ADEs) has not been assessed among patients initiating combination antiretroviral therapy., Methods: We analyzed data from 31,620 patients with no prior ADEs who started combination antiretroviral therapy. Cox proportional hazards models were used to estimate mortality hazard ratios for each ADE that occurred in >50 patients, after stratification by cohort and adjustment for sex, HIV transmission group, number of antiretroviral drugs initiated, regimen, age, date of starting combination antiretroviral therapy, and CD4+ cell count and HIV RNA load at initiation of combination antiretroviral therapy. ADEs that occurred in <50 patients were grouped together to form a "rare ADEs" category., Results: During a median follow-up period of 43 months (interquartile range, 19-70 months), 2880 ADEs were diagnosed in 2262 patients; 1146 patients died. The most common ADEs were esophageal candidiasis (in 360 patients), Pneumocystis jiroveci pneumonia (320 patients), and Kaposi sarcoma (308 patients). The greatest mortality hazard ratio was associated with non-Hodgkin's lymphoma (hazard ratio, 17.59; 95% confidence interval, 13.84-22.35) and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy (hazard ratio, 10.0; 95% confidence interval, 6.70-14.92). Three groups of ADEs were identified on the basis of the ranked hazard ratios with bootstrapped confidence intervals: severe (non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and progressive multifocal leukoencephalopathy [hazard ratio, 7.26; 95% confidence interval, 5.55-9.48]), moderate (cryptococcosis, cerebral toxoplasmosis, AIDS dementia complex, disseminated Mycobacterium avium complex, and rare ADEs [hazard ratio, 2.35; 95% confidence interval, 1.76-3.13]), and mild (all other ADEs [hazard ratio, 1.47; 95% confidence interval, 1.08-2.00])., Conclusions: In the combination antiretroviral therapy era, mortality rates subsequent to an ADE depend on the specific diagnosis. The proposed classification of ADEs may be useful in clinical end point trials, prognostic studies, and patient management.

OBJECTIVES To estimate the risk of death and examine the predictors of death and virological/immunological response, following diagnosis of multidrug-resistant (MDR) HIV-1 in a UK multicentre cohort of HIV-infected individuals. METHODS Five hundred and seventy-two patients were identified with MDR HIV-1 between 1997 and 2004. Factors associated with survival and virological/immunological response 24-48 weeks after MDR diagnosis were determined by the Poisson and linear regression, respectively. RESULTS Patient characteristics: 86% males; median age 39 years; median CD4 and viral load (VL) at MDR diagnosis 230 cells/mm3 and 4.2 log10 copies/mL; median number of antiretroviral drugs previously exposed to 8. Sixty patients died over a median follow-up of 31 months (IQR: 17-50), giving an estimated mortality rate of 3.7 deaths per 100 person-years (95% CI 2.9-4.7) following MDR diagnosis. In adjusted analysis, higher CD4 count, lower VL, more recent calendar year, lower number of antiretroviral drugs previously exposed to and greater age at MDR diagnosis were associated with an increased chance of survival. There was some evidence of a better virological response at 24-48 weeks after MDR diagnosis in patients who changed regimen compared with patients who did not change regimen. CONCLUSIONS The risk of death following MDR diagnosis may be at least 3-fold the risk observed overall in HIV-infected individuals. Changing antiretroviral therapy following emergence of MDR HIV-1 may be associated with improved short-term virological response.

Good estimates of the prevalence of human immunodeficiency virus drug resistance are important for assessing requirements for new drug classes and modeling the spread of resistance. However, little consensus exists on optimal methodologies to generate such data. To compare methodologies, we used the national data set of resistance tests from >4000 patients in the United Kingdom performed between 1998 and 2002. When single-time-point analysis (method 1) was used, the proportion of tests with any form of resistance was approximately 80%, with little time trend. When a cumulative model of resistance (method 2) was used and placed in the context of all treated patients, the prevalence of any resistance increased by year, reaching 17% of treated patients in 2002. Method 2 also nearly doubles estimates of numbers of individuals infected with multiclass drug-resistant virus. Our results identify an urgent need for new drugs within existing classes and new classes of antiretroviral therapy.

Forty-eight patients who provided 2 consecutive blood samples that tested positive for cytomegalovirus DNA by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) were randomized to receive either full-dose ganciclovir (5 mg/kg intravenously [iv] twice daily) or half-dose ganciclovir (5 mg/kg iv once daily) plus half-dose foscarnet (90 mg/kg iv once daily) for 14 days. In the ganciclovir arm, 17 (71%) of 24 patients reached the primary end point of being CMV negative by PCR within 14 days of initiation of therapy, compared with 12 (50%) of 24 patients in the ganciclovir-plus-foscarnet arm (P = .12). Toxicity was greater in the combination-therapy arm. In patients who failed to reach the primary end point, baseline virus load was 0.77 log10 higher, the replication rate before therapy was faster (1.5 vs. 2.7 days), and the viral decay rate was slower (2.9 vs. 1.1 days) after therapy. Bivariable logistic regression models identified baseline virus load, bone-marrow transplantation, and doubling time and half-life of decay as the major factors affecting response to therapy within 14 days. This study did not support a synergistic effect of ganciclovir plus foscarnet in vivo.

Background: Although studies have reported large reductions in the risks of AIDS and death since the introduction of potent anti-retroviral therapies, few have evaluated whether this has been similar for all AIDS-defining diseases. We wished to evaluate changes over time in the risk of specific AIDS-defining diseases, as first events, using data from individuals with known dates of HIV seroconversion., Methods: Using a competing risks proportional hazards model on pooled data from 20 cohorts (CASCADE), we evaluated time from HIV seroconversion to each first AIDS-defining disease (16 groups) and to death without AIDS for four calendar periods, adjusting for exposure category, age, sex, acute infection, and stratifying by cohort. We compared results to those obtained from a cause-specific hazards model., Results: Of 6,941, 2,021 (29%) developed AIDS and 437 (6%) died without AIDS. The risk of AIDS or death remained constant to 1996 then reduced; relative hazard = 0.89 (95% CI: 0.77-1.03); 0.90 (95% CI: 0.81-1.01); and 0.32 (95% CI: 0.28-0.37) for 1979-1990, 1991-1993, and 1997-2001, respectively, compared to 1994-1996. Significant risk reductions in 1997-2001 were observed in all but two AIDS-defining groups and death without AIDS in a competing risks model (with similar results from a cause-specific model). There was significant heterogeneity in the risk reduction across events; from 96% for cryptosporidiosis, to 17% for death without AIDS (P < 0.0001)., Conclusion: These findings suggest that studies reporting a stable trend for particular AIDS diseases over the period 1979-2001 may not have accounted for the competing risks among other events or lack the power to detect smaller trends.

Atopic eczema (AE) is characterized by the persistence of infiltrating T lymphocytes in the dermis. To test the hypothesis that dysregulation of normal T cell apoptosis may contribute to the pathogenesis and chronicity of AE we compared patients with a normal resolving immune response (Mantoux reaction (MR)) induced in healthy volunteers by cutaneous PPD injection. Significantly less T cell apoptosis was observed in lesional skin of AE patients compared with either the peak or the resolution phase of the MR (P < 0.0001). The low incidence of T cell apoptosis in AE was associated with significantly increased levels of Bcl-2 relative to Bax (P < 0.0001) and significantly decreased CD95-L expression (P < 0.002) compared with the resolving MR. The cytokines IL-15 and interferon-beta (IFN-beta), which prevent activated T cell apoptosis, were expressed maximally on day 7 and day 14 of the MR, respectively. In contrast, AE patients expressed high levels of both IL-15 and IFN-beta in cutaneous lesions at the same time. This suggests that the co-expression of two anti-apoptotic cytokines, which are not found together during resolving cutaneous responses, may contribute to excessive T cell survival which leads to the persistence of inflammation in patients with AE.

The number of expeditioners and independent adventure travelers to remote and physically demanding areas is increasing. Recent evidence suggests that trauma and accidents (resulting mainly from road traffic accidents and drowning) are the primary cause of mortality in travelers rather than infectious diseases.1,2 The risks and potential hazards faced on an expedition are likely to be different from those encountered by other travelers. An extensive literature search revealed little data concerning the incidence and nature of accidents on expeditions, or concerning the young adventure traveler. The objective of this study was to determine the frequency and type of accidents that occurred on a 6-week summer arctic expedition, undertaken by "young explorers" and their leaders. This information will be valuable in order to identify potential risks as part of the pretravel risk assessment, and consequently improve the medical briefing and training of expeditioners and adventure travelers.

Virus load is a major risk factor for disease in many human viral infections, especially human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) disease. The effect of cytomegalovirus (CMV) load on disease progression and the influence of antiviral chemotherapy on surrogate markers of replication was investigated in 310 patients with advanced HIV disease in a randomized controlled trial that compared the effects of valacyclovir with those of acyclovir. Sequential blood and urine samples were analyzed by polymerase chain reaction (PCR), for human CMV (HCMV) DNA. In multivariate analyses, elevated virus load in both blood and urine at baseline was associated with increased risk of HCMV disease (relative hazard, 1.49 and 1.44 per log increase, respectively). Elevated virus load in blood at baseline was also associated with a significantly shorter survival time (log rank, P=. 0001). In time-updated analyses, valacyclovir significantly suppressed the virus load in subjects who were PCR positive at baseline (in blood or urine), when compared with the combined acyclovir arms.

Background and Purpose: Patients on stroke units have better outcomes but it is not known why. We investigated the process of care on a stroke unit, an elderly care unit and a general medical ward., Methods: Comparison of the three settings was by non-participant observation of 12 patients in each. Data were analysed using multi-level modelling methods., Results: Stroke unit patients spent more time out of bed and out of their bay or room, and had more opportunities for independence than patients on the medical ward. There were more observed attempts on the stroke unit than on the general medical ward to interact with drowsy, cognitively- or speech-impaired patients. Stroke unit patients spent more time with visitors. Most of these aspects of care were also found on the elderly care unit, where patients also spent less time asleep or 'disengaged', more time interacting with nurses, and were given appropriate help more often than those elsewhere. Stroke unit patients received less eye contact, were ignored and treated in a dehumanizing way more frequently and had more negative interactions or activities than those elsewhere., Conclusions: We have identified some aspects of the process of care which may help explain the improved outcomes on stroke units. These aspects were also observed in the elderly care unit.

The association between CD4 cell count and duration of virus load suppression was investigated in 558 patients in the Frankfurt HIV Clinic Cohort who had begun highly active antiretroviral therapy and who had virus load declines to 500 copies/mL; P=.0001). Baseline virus load was not associated with virus load rebound. Lower baseline CD4 cell counts were associated with increased risk of viral rebound; however, this risk was significantly reduced in persons with low baseline CD4 cell counts who experienced substantial increases in CD4 cell counts during follow-up.

Samples of blood and urine were collected at baseline, week 4, and week 8 and then every 8 weeks from 310 patients entering a controlled trial of prophylaxis with valaciclovir versus acyclovir. Samples were tested under code by polymerase chain reaction (PCR) in one laboratory. The median number of samples collected from each patient was 5 for blood (range, 0-15) and 5 for urine (range, 0-15). Both baseline PCR viremia and PCR viruria were significantly associated with future cytomegalovirus (CMV) disease (P = .002 and P = .02, respectively). The greatest effect of valaciclovir on CMV disease was seen in patients who were PCR-positive in blood at baseline (P = .002), although a significant effect was also seen in those who were PCR-negative in urine (P = .02). Thus, PCR viremia provides prognostic information about CMV disease in AIDS patients, and valaciclovir showed activity as both a preemptive and prophylactic agent.

Longitudinal analysis of 162 liver transplant recipients identified 51 patients who were viremic. Virus load was determined in 47 of these patients using quantitative-competitive polymerase chain reaction. Peak virus load was significantly higher in 20 symptomatic patients than 27 asymptomatic patients (P < .0001). Elevated virus load, donor seropositivity, and total methylprednisolone dosage were risk factors for human cytomegalovirus (HCMV) disease (odds ratio [OR], 2.22/0.25 log10 increase in virus load, P = .001; OR, 4.11, P = .05; OR, 1.30/1-g increment in methylprednisolone, P = .01). Methylprednisolone and virus load were independent risk factors in a multivariate analysis (OR, 2.70/1-g increase, P = .003; OR, 1.61/0.25 log10 increase, P = .03, respectively). Virus loads of 10(4.75)-10(5.25) genomes/mL of blood were associated with an increased disease probability; the latter was shifted to lower virus loads with increasing quantities of methylprednisolone. These data illustrate the central role of virus load in HCMV pathogenesis.

With the advent of standard flow cytometric methods using two-colour fluorescence on samples of whole blood, it is possible to establish the ranges of CD3, CD4 and CD8 T lymphocyte subsets in the routine laboratory, and also to assist the definition of HIV-1-related deviations from these normal values. In 676 HIV-1-seronegative individuals the lymphocyte subset percentages and absolute counts were determined. The samples taken mostly in the morning. The groups included heterosexual controls, people with various clotting disorders but without lymphocyte abnormalities as well as seronegative homosexual men as the appropriate controls for the HIV-1-infected groups. The stability of CD4% and CD8% values was demonstrated throughout life, and in children CD4 values less than 25% could be regarded as abnormal. The absolute counts of all T cell subsets decreased from birth until the age of 10 years. In adolescents and adults the absolute numbers (mean +/- s.d.) of lymphocytes, CD3, CD4 and CD8 cells were 1.90 +/- 0.55, 1.45 +/- 0.46, 0.83 +/- 0.29 and 0.56 +/- 0.23 x 10(9)/l, respectively. In patients with haemophilia A and B the mean values did not differ significantly. In homosexual men higher CD8 levels were seen compared with heterosexual men and 27% had an inverted CD4/CD8 ratio but mostly without CD4 lymphopenia (CD4 less than 0.4 x 10(9)/l). However, some healthy uninfected people were 'physiologically' lymphopenic without having inverted CD4/CD8 ratios. When the variations 'within persons' were studied longitudinally over a 5-year period, the absolute CD4 counts tended to be fixed at different levels. As a marked contrast, over 60% of asymptomatic HIV-1+ patients exhibited low CD4 counts less than 0.4 x 10(9)/l together with inverted CD4/CD8 ratios. Such combined changes among the heterosexual and HIV-1-seronegative homosexual groups were as rare as 1.4% and 3%, respectively. For this reason, when the lymphocyte tests show less than 0.4 x 10(9)/l CD4 count and a CD4/CD8 ratio of less than unity, the individuals need to be investigated further for chronicity of this disorder, the signs of viral infections such as HIV-1 and other causes of immunodeficiency.