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After Bitcoin emerged in 2008, cryptocurrencies quickly became critical financial assets. Cryptocurrencies operate with blockchain technology, a decentralized structure based on the principle of consensus that allows direct transactions between units and all units to access the ledger. This study aims to analyze the relationships between the weekly returns of the best exchange-traded funds specializing in capital assets investments of companies operating in the blockchain industry, which Forbes selected in April 2024, and Bitcoin and Ethereum weekly returns in the period between October 2021 and June 2024, using the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method. The effect levels of the series against each other were examined by performing variance decomposition and impulse-=response tests. We also investigated the causality relationships between the series using the Granger Causality Test. As a result of the study, it has been determined that the weekly returns of the First Trust SkyBridge Crypto Industry and Digital Economy ETF (CRPT) have a one-way Granger causality relationship with the weekly returns of Bitcoin and Ethereum at a 5% significance level. In addition, CRPT has a bidirectional Granger causality relationship with only Bitcoin weekly returns at a 10% significance level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, food inflation and exchange rates in Turkey have emerged as significant interrelated factors. Particularly, since the second half of 2018, the depreciation of the Turkish lira has led to a rapid increase in food prices. Examining the relationship between food inflation and exchange rates is great importance, particularly in terms of trade balance, import dependency, and consumer welfare. This study aims to investigate the dynamic relationships between exchange rates and food inflation. The VAR model has been utilized to analyse the relationship between exchange rates and food inflation. The results of the model reveal that food inflation is largely influenced by its own variability. According to the variance decomposition, food inflation is affected 77% by its own variability and 23% by the exchange rate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Foreign exchange market is one of the significant financial markets about an economy. The Coronavirus (COVID19) pandemic has led to volatility in emerging markets, including Türkiye. Thus, great fluctuations take place in the eqquity and FX markets of developing countries. Thus, conducting a study specific to the Turkish foreign exchange market will be beneficial to investors and policy makers. This study aims to investigate the economic and financial factors that affect the US Dollar/ Turkish Lira level using the VAR model for the period 2002 --2021. This article has a significant contribution for the literature with the longterm and many variables it covers. The VAR model results show that Türkiye 5-Year Bond CDS Premium, Foreign Trade Balance, Direct Investments and Non-Residents' Equity Portfolio are exogenous. A bidirectional Granger causation relationship emerges between Banking Sector Loan Volume, the Turkish Lira 1 Month Deposit Rate and Domestic Debt Stock and the Dollar/Turkish Lira Exchange Rate. Also a one-way relationship takes place from the Direct Investments, Import Volume, Interbational Reserves and TUIK Consumer Confidence Index to the US Dollar/Turkish Lira exchange rate. In this respect, the volatility in the FX market and important macroeconomic variables should be monitored closely. This study proves the importance of foreign trade balance and direct investments. In this respect, these markets need to be analyzed meticulously and followed closely. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The international nature of health tourism, which has an increasing importance, makes its interaction with the real exchange rate a prominent research topic. On this basis, this study aims to examine the relationship between health tourism revenues and real exchange rate for Türkiye, and to determine to what extent the preferences of health tourists traveling to this country are price- or cost-centered. For this purpose, Johansen cointegration and Granger causality analyses and the dataset for the period Q1 2002 – Q4 2019 were used. Findings of cointegration analysis supported that there is a long-term relationship between real exchange rate and health tourism revenues. Accordingly, a 1% change in all, developed, and developing trading partner countries based real exchange rate causes a change of 2.4065%, 2.6108%, and 2.1383% in health tourism revenues in reverse direction, respectively. These findings indicate that health tourism revenues are highly sensitive to the changes in real exchange rates. Furthermore, Granger causality analysis supported a one-way causal relationship from all three real exchange rates to health tourism revenues. Considering the findings, it is possible to state despite the high quality of health services in Türkiye, prices or costs are significantly effective in the decisions of health tourists. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economics & Research (JER) is the property of Journal of Economics & Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The purpose of this study is to investigate the interrelationship between Bank Indonesia 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate (BI 7 DRRR) and Profit-Loss Sharing Rate (Nisbah Rate) in Islamic Sharia Banks (Bank Syariah Indonesia). Indonesia had been establishing conventional monetary system ever since and have yet to introduce Islamic approach to its monetary system. Now, in Islamic monetary perspective, interest rate doesn’t exist. Therefore, this research aimed to discover the possibility of Islamic approach in Indonesia’s monetary system, using Nisbah Rate launched by Islamic Sharia Banks as a substitution. The research was conducted using VAR (Vector Autoregression) to study the interrelationship between BI 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate and Nisbah Rate, using data obtained from Islamic Banking Statistics through Indonesia’s Financial Service Authority (OJK) monthly during 2021-2023. The result showed that both BI 7 Days Reverse Repo Rate and Nisbah Rate did cause impact on one another, and thus the possibility of establishing Islamic monetary system is not completely disregarded. This investigation contributes to the ongoing discourse surrounding the integration of Islamic financial principles into conventional monetary frameworks. By highlighting the reciprocal influence between conventional monetary policies and Islamic financial instruments, this study underscores the potential for a hybrid monetary system that accommodates Islamic principles within the Indonesian financial landscape.

Investors generally accept the housing market as a safe investment. Housing prices tend to rise as a hedge against inflation. Crises, epidemics and disasters can cause housing prices to fall. It is necessary to take into account that factors other than supply - demand can also affect real estate prices. An economy contains many variables that affect housing prices. The aim of this study is to determine the existence of bubbles in the housing market in Turkiye. Another aim is to analyze the macroeconomic-financial variables that affect the housing TL/m² unit prices using the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. According to the results of the GSADF test; 2 balloons emerge for the period 2014 - 2016 June and 2020 - June 2022 in the housing unit price. The slope of the balloon in the period 2020 - June 2022 is very steep. The VAR model shows that apart from supply-demand, the Consumer Price Index, the sum of credit sales, the Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate and the banking sector loan volume variables have an impact on the housing unit price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the relationship between Turkey’s Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) and various economic and financial indicators was investigated. The data for the period 2018.4 - 2021.2 were used in the analysis, and the Vector Autoregression (VAR) method was preferred. According to the results, although there is a significant relationship between various indicators, it has been determined that the most effective index on PMI is the Export Climate Index. A positive relationship was found between PMI and the Export Climate Index in the short run. There is also a unidirectional causality relationship from the Export Climate Index to PMI. This situation has revealed that exports are influential on the investment decisions of purchasing managers, and therefore market-oriented strategies have an important place in business policies. It is thought that this study will make important contributions to policymakers, researchers and literature.

Copyright of Gazi Journal of Economics & Business is the property of Gazi Journal of Economics & Business and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The purpose of this study is to first determine the source of the dollarization rate in terms of the inflation rate (expected and actual), exchange rate (expected and actual), CDS premium and the interest rate applied to TL deposits, and then to examine the asymmetric structure of the dollarization rate. For this purpose, Var Analysis and Hatemi-J Asymmetric Causality analysis were applied by using monthly data from 2013:01 to 2023:04. According to the Decomposition of Variance, which examines the sources of dollarization, it was concluded that the most effective variable on the dollarization rate in the Turkish economy was the exchange rate (19.8%). On the other hand, according to the asymmetric causality analysis, in which the causality relationship between variables is examined, there is a symmetrical causality relationship between dollarization rate and exchange rate, inflation rate and risk premium, while there is no causality relationship between dollarization rate and interest rate. Thus, a decrease in the exchange rate (expected and actual), inflation rate (expected and actual) and the risk premium are a cause of a decrease in the dollarization rate or reverse dollarization. Based on this, it is seen that the expected and actual values give similar results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Trakya University, Economics & Administrative Sciences Faculty E-Journal / Trakya Üniversitesi İktisadi ve İdari Bilimler Fakültesi E-dergi is the property of T.C. Trakya Universitesi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance / Ekonomi, Politika & Finans Arastirmalari Dergisi is the property of Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The relationship between Islamic banking and monetary policies, and the way this relationship is reflected in the real sector has attracted increasing attention, primarily because of the growing importance of Islamic banking activities. Therefore, a review of the effectiveness of the loan schemes of Islamic banks in Turkey can make a significant contribution to the literature. This study analyzes whether the loan schemes of public and private participation banks operating in Turkey’s dual banking system, are effective. To this end, the study relies on variance decomposition and impulse response function analyses of VAR models compiled from monthly data between 2009:01 and 2020:03. The industrial production index represents economic activity, the interest rate applied to consumer loans, and the total money supply (M1), representing the monetary policy instruments. The model also includes total loans and deposit variables made available for the participation banks, representing the bank loan scheme and other variables, including the nominal exchange rate and consumer price indexes. The study measures the responses of the exchange rate, inflation rate, industrial production index, participation banks’ total loans, and total deposits to one-unit shocks applied to monetary policy and interest rates. The findings from the impulse-response functions indicate that the credit channel in participation banks is partially additional since their total loans and deposits react to monetary policies in certain periods due to changes in money supply and interest rates. However, they cannot reflect this at the production level.

Copyright of International Journal of Economic & Social Research is the property of Abant Izzet Baysal University, Faculty of Economics & Administrative Sciences and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Pamukkale University Journal of Business Research / Pamukkale Üniversitesi İşletme Araştırmaları Dergisi is the property of Pamukkale University Journal of Business Research and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

In the study, the short-term causality relationship between oil and natural gas prices, which are the main energy sources, and the XTRZM index was analysed with the Granger causality test. The DCC-GARCH model was used. Analyses were carried out over the monthly closing values between 02.01.1997 and 01.12.2022. According to the Granger causality test findings, the reason for both Brent oil and Crude Oil WTI in the XTRZM index is that Brent oil is the cause of Crude Oil WTI. It has been concluded that natural gas, Brent oil, and crude oil are not the causes of the XTRZM index and each other. Because Brent oil and crude oil are not included in the WTI XTRZM index, it has been determined that there is unidirectional Granger causality from the XTRZM index to Brent oil and crude oil WTI. According to the findings obtained from the DCC-GARCH model, there is a positive correlation between natural gas, Brent oil, crude oil, and the BIST tourism index.

The confidence plays an important role in the economy and financial markets. Consumer and business confidence indicators are means to predict the health and future of the economy. The business confidence index is a special economic indicator that reflects the state of the economy as a whole. Thus, Central Bank of Turkish Republic created the Real Sector Confidence Index in 2005. The aim of this study is to analyze the relationship between the Real Sector Confidence Index, which is used as a leading indicator in financial markets and policy making and the macroeconomic and financial variables with the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. Model results are significant at the 5% level. Gold Price, Foreign Trade Balance, International Reserves, USD/Turkish Lira exchange rate and Volatility Index variables affect the Real Sector Confidence Index. There is bidirectional Granger causality between Real Sector Confidence Index and Borsa İstanbul 100 Index Value, Domestic Debt Stock, Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Ratio and Equity Portfolio of Non-Residents. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research analyses the effects of the macro indicators like credit default swap, exchange rate, oil prices and gold prices on the Istanbul Stock Exchange (BIST100 Index) during the Covid-19 period by applying vector autoregressive model. In the model, daily data of the indicators are considered. The analysis comprises of two periods: pre-Covid-19 period (first week of 2019 to last week of 2020) and the during Covid-19 period (first week of 2020 to the second week of 2021). The comparison of two periods determines whether Covid-19 influence the impact of macro indicators on Borsa Istanbul. The findings reveal that in the pre-Covid-19 period, the volatility in BIST100 is explained mainly by gold prices. Credit default swap, oil prices and exchange rate affected BIST100 negatively, while gold prices had a positive impact on the Index. In the Covid-19 period, the impact of credit default swap and oil prices on BIST100 increased. A negative relationship is observed between BIST100 Index and the gold prices. A positive relationship is found between BIST100 and the exchange rate. Furthermore, the exchange rate had a greater impact on BIST100 than the impact observed in the pre-Covid period.

The response of the Bitcoin market to the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) pandemic is an example of how a global public health crisis can cause drastic market adjustments or even a market crash. Investor attention on the COVID-19 pandemic is likely to play an important role in this response. Focusing on the Bitcoin futures market, this paper aims to investigate whether pandemic attention can explain and forecast the returns and volatility of Bitcoin futures. Using the daily Google search volume index for the “coronavirus” keyword from January 2020 to February 2022 to represent pandemic attention, this paper implements the Granger causality test, Vector Autoregression (VAR) analysis, and several linear effects analyses. The findings suggest that pandemic attention is a granger cause of Bitcoin returns and volatility. It appears that an increase in pandemic attention results in lower returns and excessive volatility in the Bitcoin futures market, even after taking into account the interactive effects and the influence of controlling other financial markets. In addition, this paper carries out the out-of-sample forecasts and finds that the predictive models with pandemic attention do improve the out-of-sample forecast performance, which is enhanced in the prediction of Bitcoin returns while diminished in the prediction of Bitcoin volatility as the forecast horizon is extended. Finally, the predictive models including pandemic attention can generate significant economic benefits by constructing portfolios among Bitcoin futures and risk-free assets. All the results demonstrate that pandemic attention plays an important and non-negligible role in the Bitcoin futures market. This paper can provide enlightens for subsequent research on Bitcoin based on investor attention sparked by public emergencies.

Petroleum and natural gas, which are among the most used energy sources in the world, have a significant impact on financial markets and macroeconomic indicators as they are used as raw materials in many fields. For this reason, US, England, Japan, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, and India, as energy importers and developing countries, may be affected positively or negatively by changes in energy prices. The main purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between Brent oil, crude oil (WTI), and natural gas (NG) prices and Moscow Stock Exchange Index (RTSI), Borsa Istanbul Index (XU100), Bovespa Brazilian Stock Exchange Index (BVSP), Indian National Stock Exchange Nifty 50 Index (NSEI), Standard and Poor’s 500 Index (S and P 500), London Stock Exchange (FTSE 100), and Тokyo Stock Exchange (N225). In the study, weekly data between February 16, 2020 and December 26, 2021 were examined. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used to examine the correlation between the variables included in the analysis, and the direction of the correlation between the variables was determined by the Granger causality test. According to the results of the VAR model, Brent oil and crude oil prices have significant effects on the indices included in the analysis; however, natural gas price does not have a significant effect on indices, Brent oil, and crude oil prices. On the other hand, the results of the Granger causality test confirm the findings of the VAR analysis. Granger causality test results reveal that in Granger’s sense, only BVSP and NSEI are the cause of Brent oil price, RTSI, BVSP, NSEI, XU100, S and P 500, FTSE 100, and N225 are the cause of WTI, and WTI is the cause of NSEI.

In this study, the relationship between GDP, inflation and current account balance variables, which express macroeconomic performance, and public expenditures were investigated with VAR analysis on the example of Turkey by obtaining quarterly data between January 2008 and August 2022. Firstly, by taking the firstorder difference of the time series, the series were made stationary and included in the model by deciding on the appropriate lag length. Wald test, Impulse-Response Analysis and Granger Causality test, in which short-term causal relationships were investigated, were applied and the results were interpreted in detail. A two-way granger causality relationship is observed between public expenditures and GDP in the short run. This result also supports Wagner's Law. Dynamic relationships between the impulse-response analysis time series were observed. According to the Wald Test results, it has been concluded that the realized public expenditures and the economic growth rate have an effect on the current account balance. As a result, it can be stated that there are statistically significant relationships between public expenditures and macroeconomic variables, and for this reason, public expenditures should be taken into account in the formation of macroeconomic policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years, most countries have tried to gain international competitiveness in service sectors. It is important to develop in the sector, have a cost advantage, and gain an advantage in the exchange rate and more economic openness. On the other hand, achieving competitiveness in health tourism, an international service trade, allows economic openness. Low cost, high quality, good advertising activities, low ticket prices, and so forth lead to competition in order to increase the export of health care. The high competitiveness of health tourism contributes to economic growth. Conversely, Türkiye's competitive advantages in terms of health tourism have contributed to both the sector and economic growth. In this context, first, the competitiveness of health tourism was analyzed using the export-import ratio index for the period 2003Q1–2019Q4 in Türkiye. The analysis revealed that Türkiye has a competitive advantage in health tourism. Second, the scores of health tourism competitiveness, number of tourists, travel revenues and economic growth were investigated using the vector autoregression method to analyse the effects of the factors on each other. According to the analysis, the impact of a shock in health tourism competitiveness and tourist number on economic growth have lasted for a long time. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Ekonomik Yaklaşim is the property of Ekonomik Yaklasim Dernegi (Ekonomik Yaklasim Association) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The most important contribution expected from foreign investments for developing countries is that it helps to ensure the commercial balance and economic growth of the country. Empirical studies in-vestigating the relationship between foreign investments and economic growth have shown that capital movements have led to a high rate of economic growth in some developing countries, and also paved the way for economic crises in some countries. In this study, the effects of foreign direct investments on economic growth in Kazakhstan are tried to be revealed. For this purpose, the relationship between inter-national foreign investments and economic growth in Kazakhstan has been tested by using quarterly data on GDP, gross fixed capital formation, public expenditures, openness and foreign investments between 2005-2020. Beginning with the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) unit root test, the analysis ended with the Granger causality test, the VAR analysis. According to the results of the Granger causality test, the only reason for the growth of the Kazakhstan economy in the sense of Granger is openness. Examples of foreign investment affecting growth have not been found in the causality test. On the other hand, there was no statistically significant effect of foreign investments on economic growth.

The purpose of this study is to examine the effects of fixed capital investments on agricultural growth in Turkey. For this purpose, in the study, agricultural growth, agricultural private fixed capital, agricultural public fixed capital investments and agricultural employment variables were analysed with the help of VAR Analysis and Granger Causality Test using annual data between 1995-2018. According to the results of variance decomposition and impact response functions obtained from the VAR Model, variables were interacted and agricultural growth was affected by fixed capital investments and employment variables. Granger causality analysis is that there is a two-way causality between agricultural growth and employment and one-way causality from public fixed capital investments to agricultural growth.

Bu çalışmada Türkiye’nin 2006:04-2020:05 dönemine ait aylık verilerinden yararlanılarak döviz kurunun yurtiçi fiyatlara geçiş etkisinin analiz edilmesi amaçlanmıştır. Bu doğrultuda değişkenlere öncelikli olarak Phillips-Perron birim kök testi yapılmış ve serilerin farklı seviyelerde durağan olduğu anlaşılmıştır. Daha sonra değişkenler arasındaki uzun dönemli ilişkinin analiz edilebilmesi için ARDL sınır testi uygulanmıştır. Analiz sonucunda değişkenler arasında uzun dönemli bir ilişki olduğu bulgusuna rastlanılmıştır. En son ise değişkenler arasındaki geçiş etkisinin daha iyi anlaşılabilmesi için kısa dönemli bir analiz olan VAR analizi çalışmada uygulanmıştır. VAR analizi kapsamında ise öncelikli olarak katsayılar yorumlanırken, analiz Etki Tepki analizi ve Varyans Ayrıştırması testlerinin yapılmasıyla sonlandırılmıştır. Sonuçlar döviz kurunda yaşanan değişmelerin yurtiçi fiyatlar üzerindeki etkilerinin anlamlı olduğunu ancak döviz kurunun söz konusu değişkenler arasından en çok tüketici fiyat endeksi üzerinde etkili olduğunu ortaya koymuştur.

The purpose of the paper is to analyze the process of the corporate bond market formation in Eastern Europe and to determine the prospects for development in Ukraine. Methodology. It is justified that the main variables that affect corporate bond issues are loans granted to financial corporations (excluding banks) and non-financial corporations, share issues and equity. The empirical basis of the study is the reports of the National Securities and Stock Market Commission (on the amount of shares and bonds), the National Bank of Ukraine (on the amount of loans to corporations) and the State Statistics Service of Ukraine (on the amount of corporate equity). The study covers 20 years: from 2000 to 2019. Based on these data, a vector autoregressive model (VAR) was constructed. The forecast error variance decomposition (VDC) technique was used to identify the most influential variables in the corporate bond issuance process. Based on the VAR model, the forecast levels of model variables for 2021–2024 were obtained, which should have been achieved under the condition of planned development of the corporate bond market in Ukraine. It has been suggested that the economic shock of the COVID-19 has led to a decrease in the expected level of variables in 2020. Therefore, seven scenarios for the development of the corporate bond market are considered: A – reduction of equity amount; B – decrease in the amount of shares issued; C – decrease in the amount of loans to corporations; A + B; A + C; B + C; A + B + C. The results of the VDC technique have allowed to establish that the issue of corporate bonds in Ukraine largely depends on the amount of bank loans granted to corporations. Based on the VAR model and scenario forecasting, it was determined that the most favorable for the development of the corporate bond market of Ukraine is the scenario, in which corporations’ equity will be reduced by 10% due to increased uncovered loss but such a reduction will not lead to liquidation, and hence the cessation of circulation of their shares. Practical implications. Forecasting the amount of corporate bonds, shares and loans to corporations based on the proposed model allows companies to develop effective strategic plans, and investors – to decide on the allocation of their own financial resources. Value/originality. The proposed model of corporate bond market development in Ukraine includes internal and external sources of financing of enterprises, and allows to quantify the relationship between financial instruments (corporate bonds, loans and shares).

CDS premiums have become an important element that is widely used as an alternative to credit rating grades in the measurement of credit risk in national economies. For this reason, determining the factors explaining the changes in country CDS premiums is very important in the macro financial literature. It has been investigated whether a change observed in the external debt/GDP ratio, unemployment, inflation ratios and GDP growth rates, which are among the factors affecting country CDS premiums, cause a statistically significant change on country CDS premiums. Quarterly data for the related variables between the years 2010-2019 were used in the study. In the study, VAR Analysis, Variance Decomposition, Granger Causality Analysis were performed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The surprising resilience of current communist states towards democratic opening and a mainstream neoliberal economic 'way-of-life' in the past did not hamper their economic performances and development perspectives as much as we would expect. In the countries that are one-party states, in which the institutions of the ruling party and the state have become intertwined, ostensibly arguing for political and economic equality, still maintaining a firm control over the economic resources, we could expect economic relationships that are au contraire modern economic trends. However, China for example, a supposedly communist economy, with its breath-taking socio-economic progress, elusively ignores mainstream economic vocation, progressively advancing towards establishing itself as a sacrosanct economic force. In that manner, the goal of this paper is to (1) evaluate the dynamics of relevant macroeconomic variables in three current communist states (China, Laos and Vietnam) in order to (2) expose possible deviations to modern capitalist trends as well as to (3) provide relevant information that can serve as a guideline for macro policies. For that purpose, we analyzed the relationship between the GDP, price, money and the exchange rate by using VAR modeling. Results revealed coherent macroeconomic dynamics with a causality that is in accordance to a common capitalist economic framework.

There are ongoing debates around the world regarding the effects of climate change on agriculture. All sectors are known to be affected by climate change, and the agricultural sector is no exception. The present study investigates the effects of climate change on agriculture in Turkey in the 1961-2018 period. In order to determine the link between the variables, an Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration and Vector Autoregressive (VAR) analysis are applied. Results of the study show that CO2 emissions have a significant impact on agriculture. Thus, as Turkey’s population increases, food sufficiency and security will emerge as more important issues over the next decade, it is vital to take adaptive measures to cope with climate change and its impact on agriculture.

Petroleum and natural gas, which are among the most used energy sources in the world, have a significant impact on financial markets and macroeconomic indicators as they are used as raw materials in many fields. For this reason, Russia, Turkey, Brazil, and India, as energy importers and developing countries, may be affected positively or negatively by changes in energy prices. The main purpose of this study is to examine the correlation between Brent oil, crude oil (WTI), and natural gas (NG) prices and Moscow Stock Exchange Index (RTSI), Borsa Istanbul Index (XU100), Bovespa Brazilian Stock Exchange Index (BVSP), and Indian National Stock Exchange Nifty 50 Index (NSEI). In the study, weekly data between 16.02.2020 and 26.12.2021 were examined. Vector autoregressive (VAR) model was used to examine the correlation between the variables included in the analysis, and the direction of the correlation between the variables was determined by the Granger causality test. According to the results of the VAR model, Brent oil and crude oil prices have significant effects on the indices included in the analysis; however, natural gas price does not have a significant effect on indices, Brent oil, and crude oil prices. On the other hand, the results of the Granger causality test confirm the findings of the VAR analysis. Granger causality test results reveal that in Granger's sense, only BVSP and NSEI are the cause of Brent oil price, RTSI, BVSP, NSEI, and XU100 are the cause of WTI, and WTI is the cause of NSEI.

The COVID-19 pandemic, which started in China in December 2019, caused the great economic recession for about ten years, threatening health, devastating economic activity, and hurting well-being and jobs. The COVID-19 crisis is one the largest globally public health and economic crisis. The COVID-19 pandemic has affected economic activities across various sectors, including tourism, supply of medical equipment, global supply chains, electronic and financial markets, energy, and food services, while also significantly impacting social activities. This paper investigates the impact of S&P 500 Volatility Index (VIX) on returns of the six sector indexes, informatics index, food index, real estate investment trust index, textile index, tourism index and Bank index from 11 March 2020 to 28 May 2021 in Turkey. Using the VAR analysis method, the results of the empirical study showed that the responses of the other indexes except for Bank index to VIX index are negative at the first. Contrary to these reactions, Bank index return reacts positively to the VIX index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Reforma (1694-5158) is the property of Kyrgyz-Turkish Manas University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Sakarya Journal of Economics / Sakarya Iktisat Dergisi is the property of Sakarya Journal of Economics / Sakarya Iktisat Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Copyright of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekonomik Yorumlar is the property of Journal of Financial Politic & Economic Reviews / Finans Politik & Ekomomik Yorumlar and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Under the influence of the status of the power industry, the economic efficiency of power energy in Guangdong Province is gradually decreasing. In order to improve the economic efficiency of power energy in Guangdong Province, the economic efficiency evaluation model of power energy in Guangdong Province based on VAR analysis is constructed and its development trend is predicted. We reconstruct the characteristic space of the power energy distribution time series, obtain the average mutual information of the power energy transmission time series in Guangdong Province. Then, we use the above information as a constraint condition, use the VAR analysis method to perform statistical analysis on the economic efficiency of power energy, and obtain the power energy economy of Guangdong Province. The cross-correlation feature quantity of efficiency is used to construct the probability statistical equation of Guangdong's power energy economic efficiency. Within the confidence interval of power energy output, the economic efficiency data and panel data of Guangdong's power energy output are selected as the regression analysis objects to construct Guangdong economic efficiency evaluation model of provincial power energy. The experimental results show that the power energy economic efficiency of the designed model reaches more than 95%. Compared with the models in the literature, the model in this study can effectively improve the economic efficiency of power energy and predict the development trend of power energy in Guangdong Province, which can finally realize the sustainable development of power energy in Guangdong Province. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Yuzuncu Yil Universitesi Journal of Agricultural Sciences (YYU J Agr Sci) is the property of Yuzuncu Yil University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Energy consumption data is one of the socio-economic development indicators. Many econometric analyzes have been conducted between energy consumption and economic growth. The current account deficit variable is included in the econometric analysis as the third variable in this study as a result of economic growth. On energy policies need to be established in Turkey these three variables is very important. In our study, whether the current account deficit is a result of growth and whether growth will cause an increase in energy consumption data will be analyzed in terms of causality. Energy consumption in Turkey between the years 1980-2015, economic growth and the current account deficit was investigated relationships with VAR test. Based on the results obtained during the period of 1980-2015 the volume of energy consumption takes place in Turkey, it has not contributed to economic growth. According to the variance decomposition results, there is no causal relationship between economic growth and energy consumption. However, it has been demonstrated that there is a strong bidirectional relationship between current account deficit and energy imports. A significant portion of the current account deficit in Turkey during the period 1980-2015 constitutes the volume of energy imports. In addition, the responses of each variable against shocks were analyzed with Impact-Response analyzes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economic Research & Business Administration is the property of Al-Farabi Kazakh National University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The valuation of risky debt is central to theoretical and empirical work in corporate finance. Although much is known on the returns and valuation of bonds, there is hardly a consensus on the risk components of the yield spreads. This article aims to investigate the effect of investor sentiment as a systematic risk factor on speculative bond yield spreads. After applying correlation analysis to determine the strength of linear association between these two variables, a vector autoregressive (VAR) analysis and impulse response tests are used to examine the relationship between these two variables. The sample period extends from January 1997 to August 2014. In the VAR models, speculative bond spreads and consumer confidence index are used as endogenous variables. The results show that sentiment covaries with the yield spread and have a negative effect on them. The spread level of the previous period seems to be a statistically significant determinant of the current period sentiment. Empirical findings imply that investor sentiment is a systematic risk factor in risky bond markets.

This article aims to study real GDP, inflation rate, exchange rate and their impacts on the unemployment rate in South Africa by considering the annual time-series data covering the period 1980-2018. The findings of the Johansen approach to cointegration concluded that there was no evidence of a long-run connection among the variables. The findings of Granger causality reported that there was bidirectional causality between the pairs of real GDP vs. unemployment rate, exchange rate vs. unemployment rate, and inflation rate vs. unemployment rate; however, a unidirectional causality was found in the pairs of real GDP vs. exchange rate and inflation rate vs. exchange rate. The findings of impulseresponses demonstrated that there was a negative significant response of the exchange rate to the unemployment rate in the long-run; conversely, the response of real GDP to the unemployment rate was positive significant in the long-run. Furthermore, the findings of variance decompositions reported that all regressors strongly predict the unemployment rate both in the short and long-run. The study suggested that the government should provide job-readiness skills, business awareness, technological knowledge, and training programs to its population to ascertain unemployment reduction. The study also suggested that the South African government should create a supportive environment and flexible labor market policies that attract small businesses and private-sector investment which ultimately strengthen the entrepreneurial activity with new entrepreneurial actors in order to create job opportunities and absorb a large pool of unemployed youth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Hitit Journal of Social Sciences is the property of Hitit University and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The surprising resilience of current communist states towards democratic opening and a mainstream neoliberal economic 'way-of-life' in the past did not hamper their economic performances and development perspectives as much as we would expect. In the countries that are one-party states, in which the institutions of the ruling party and the state have become intertwined, ostensibly arguing for political and economic equality, still maintaining a firm control over the economic resources, we could expect economic relationships that are au contraire modern economic trends. However, China for example, a supposedly communist economy, with its breathtaking socio-economic progress, elusively ignores mainstream economic vocation, progressively advancing towards establishing itself as a sacrosanct economic force. In that manner, the goal of this paper is to (1) evaluate the dynamics of relevant macroeconomic variables in three current communist states (China, Laos and Vietnam) in order to (2) expose possible deviations to modern capitalist trends as well as to (3) provide relevant information that can serve as a guideline for macro policies. For that purpose, we analyzed the relationship between the GDP, price, money and the exchange rate by using VAR modeling. Results revealed coherent macroeconomic dynamics with a causality that is in accordance to a common capitalist economic framework. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Copyright of Journal of Entrepreneurship & Development / Girisimcilik ve Kalkinma Dergisi is the property of Journal of Entrepreneurship & Development / Girisimcilik ve Kalkinma Dergisi and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)