Konut Birim Fiyat Balonu ve Balonu Etkileyen Ekonomik Değişkenlerin Analizi.

Investors generally accept the housing market as a safe investment. Housing prices tend to rise as a hedge against inflation. Crises, epidemics and disasters can cause housing prices to fall. It is necessary to take into account that factors other than supply - demand can also affect real estate prices. An economy contains many variables that affect housing prices. The aim of this study is to determine the existence of bubbles in the housing market in Turkiye. Another aim is to analyze the macroeconomic-financial variables that affect the housing TL/m² unit prices using the Vector Auto Regression (VAR) model. According to the results of the GSADF test; 2 balloons emerge for the period 2014 - 2016 June and 2020 - June 2022 in the housing unit price. The slope of the balloon in the period 2020 - June 2022 is very steep. The VAR model shows that apart from supply-demand, the Consumer Price Index, the sum of credit sales, the Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Rate and the banking sector loan volume variables have an impact on the housing unit price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]