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Management of data imprecision and uncertainty has become increasingly important, especially in situation awareness and assessment applications where reliability of the decision-making process is critical (e.g., in military battlefields). These applications require the following: 1) an effective methodology for modeling data imperfections and 2) procedures for enabling knowledge discovery and quantifying and propagating partial or incomplete knowledge throughout the decision-making process. In this paper, using a Dempster-Shafer belief-theoretic relational database (DS-DB) that can conveniently represent a wider class of data imperfections, an association rule mining (ARM)-based classification algorithm possessing the desirable functionality is proposed. For this purpose, various ARM-related notions are revisited so that they could be applied in the presence of data imperfections. A data structure called belief itemset tree is used to efficiently extract frequent itemsets and generate association rules from the proposed DS-DB. This set of rules is used as the basis on which an unknown data record, whose attributes are represented via belief functions, is classified. These algorithms are validated on a simplified situation assessment scenario where sensor observations may have caused data imperfections in both attribute values and class labels. Index Terms--Association rule mining (ARM), classification, data imperfections, Dempster-Shafer (DS) belief theory, situation assessment.

Three studies are conducted to assess the uncertainty-threat model of political conservatism, which posits that psychological needs to manage uncertainty and threat are associated with political orientation. Results from structural equation models provide consistent support for the hypothesis that uncertainty avoidance (e.g., need for order, intolerance of ambiguity, and lack of openness to experience) and threat management (e.g., death anxiety, system threat, and perceptions of a dangerous world) each contributes independently to conservatism (vs. liberalism). No support is obtained for alternative models, which predict that uncertainty and threat management are associated with ideological extremism or extreme forms of conservatism only. Study 3 also reveals that resistance to change fully mediates the association between uncertainty avoidance and conservatism, whereas opposition to equality partially mediates the association between threat and conservatism. Implications for understanding the epistemic and existential bases of political orientation are discussed. Keywords: uncertainty; threat; ideology; liberalism; conservatism; political orientation

Development of empirical model for analysis of decisions made in light of uncertainty, based on solution to newsvendor problem, is described.

A study on intelligent parking space inventory control system for management of parking reservation and revenue, using integrated fuzzy logic and integer programming, is presented.

Solutions for dynamic dial-a-ride problem with unanticipated customers' request, using two-phase insertion algorithm, are presented.

Uncertain pricing conditions in inventory control and an dynamic pricing containing these conditions is presented.

Uncertain industrial production processes and an production-inventory model for analyzing these conditions is presented.

Uncertainty surrounding decision making process in operations management is presented.

The development of fisheries industry in uncertain stock price and increasing cost of capital scenarios is discussed.

Production function of firms with uncertain utility behavior is analyzed.

A model is developed to value options on production capacity, conditioned by cost and demand uncertainty.

The process of managing uncertainty in machinery procurement of engineering projects is discussed.

Strategies to cope with and reduce uncertainty in financial services industry are analyzed. Implications of these strategies on productivity and customer satisfaction in these industries are also examined.

A review on basic methods for project scheduling under uncertainty conditions is presented. Potential uses of various methods are also discussed. The various methods analyzed are, reactive scheduling (revises schedule based on unexpected event), stochastic scheduling (schedules activities with uncertain durations), fuzzy scheduling (uses fuzzy numbers for modeling activities), proactive scheduling (mostly machine schedules), and sensitivity analysis.

Flexibility options are seen as key solutions for dealing with uncertainty in shop scheduling with deadlines. Numerous schedule groups are generated for each machine wherein algorithms are used to evaluate operations.

A study on the issue of uncertainty relating to average estimates of resources, cost, and time factors in project risk management is presented. Findings demonstrate the inherent problems of using average estimates in preparing for uncertainty.

The usage of fuzzy set theory and a fuzzy ranking measure with discrete-event simulation for modeling uncertain activity duration is discussed.

A study reviewing the execution of production schedules in the shop floor in the presence of uncertainties is presented and suggestions are offered for various alternate courses that need to be examined in this area.

A unique model for valuating European options in uncertain market environments is presented.

Byline: Arthur Hau (1) Keywords: Keywords:aabsolute prudence, intertemporal substitution, precautionary savings, savings, equivalent precautionary premium.; JEL classification:aD81, D91. Abstract: This paper derives the relations between the coefficient of absolute prudence, the equivalent precautionary premium, risk aversion to concentration, and the normality and shift of current consumption under uncertainty, without the time-separable utility assumption. Examples show that Kimball's coefficient of absolute prudence does not fully characterize precautionary saving or saving behavior under uncertainty. It is proved that, whereas a higher rate of intertemporal substitution and a larger coefficient of absolute prudence imply more savings when current consumption is normal, a larger coefficient of intertemporal substitution and a smaller coefficient of absolute prudence imply more savings when current consumption is inferior. Author Affiliation: (1) Department of Management, Lingnan University, Tuen Mun, Hong Kong (e-mail: ahau@ln.edu.hk), HK Article note: Received July 17, 2001 revised version received November 20, 2001

The paper extends problematic integration theory and related theories of uncertainty management to communication about serious illness and death.

The research examines communication and uncertainty management, addressing the issues of the experience and meaning of uncertainty, the role of appraisal and emotion, and the range of behavioral and psychological responses to uncertainty.

Research is presented concerning the methodology which can be used for the formulation and implementation of public policy. The time urgent nature of the policies and the importance of planning for flexibility are discussed.

The formation of expectations or forecasting used in decision-making sometimes fall short of the rational expectations ideal where the forecast may not be part of the firm's optimal management of uncertainty. An expensive forecast will possibly be supplanted by the possibility to wait, the strategy to exchange projects, and a likelihood to discard the inferior project. All these behavioral options depend on allowing the flow of time interval show information freely which will be available only at substantial cost. At low costs, forecasting controls these strategies which do not make use of the maximal duration of an investment project.

In this paper a new method for master production scheduling (MPS) is presented. The objective of this new method is to minimize schedule instability in the order driven company. In such companies the order arrival process is highly uncertain, and the production of an item is usually scheduled only after an order is received. Further, the customer usually demands a short delivery lead time. The new MPS method combines a rolling schedule approach with an overtime or subcontracting capability, and is labelled as MPS with incremental capacity allocation and a rolling horizon (MPS-IR). Two features distinguish this new approach. First, rather than allocating the entire production capacity of a future period at once, the MPS-IR does so in an incremental fashion over multiple periods. Second, rather than scheduling the entire demand for a future demand at once, the MPS-IR does so in an incremental fashion over multiple periods. In experimental tests the MPS-IR was found to outperform a Gantt chart based scheduler.

In this time of high global tensions and economic uncertainty, is maintaining an optimistic outlook possible or even warranted? I believe it is. By better understanding the nature of optimism, […]

The process of planning and adaptive approaches for non-predictive conditions in business organizations is presented.