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The process of decision-making on climate and energy policy is a challenging task, which is affected by an important number of internal and external factors that influence the dynamics of the energy system. It is critical to investigate and understand how a specific policy instrument affects various sectors and to employ model-based scenarios to examine potential environmental and energy-related trends influenced by uncertain dynamics. In this report, we have strived for the development of a comprehensive set of narratives and scenarios that will be used in the upcoming modeling exercises to produce outcomes related to the assessment of the decarbonization potential of the energy citizenship concept. In order to reach our goal, we explored the literature around the development of decarbonization narratives and scenarios, using as a starting point insights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) and the concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to produce the most up-to-date and policy-relevant evidence on the contribution of energy citizenship in reaching climate neutrality. In particular, the five SSPs present a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources: SSP1: “Sustainability-Taking the Green Road” SSP2: “Middle of the Road” SSP3: “Regional Rivalry-A Rocky Road” SSP4: “Inequality-A Road Divided” SSP5: “Fossil-fueled Development-Taking the Highway” Based on the SSPs, we formulated three narratives, which describe future systemic changes of the society and economy in general, providing with “future worlds” that will be inhabited by citizens: “A unified world” (Citizens at the core of the energy transition, inclusive development). “A fragmented world” (Regional conflicts, countries prioritize domestic issues). “A familiar world” (Reference narrative). In parallel, we brought the citizens to the forefront with the aim of also building “people-centric” narratives, based on energy citizenship trends & patterns previously identified: “Power to the People” (Active participation in the energy market). “Band Together” (Collective expressions of energy citizenship). “Habitual Creatures” (Actions towards energy efficiency). “People to the Streets” (Political activities). “Business as usual” (Reference narrative). Finally, as a next step, and through the combination of “future worlds” and “people-centric” narratives, we will formulate specific quantitative scenarios, which will be modeled with the use of the ENCLUDE modeling ensemble, i.e., the Agent-based Technology adOption Model (ATOM), the Dynamic high-Resolution dEmand-sidE Management (DREEM) model, and the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE)., The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union. Neither CINEA nor the European Commission is responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

The EE Aggregator and P4P programmes are being explored in the context of the Renovation Wave for meeting the EU’s energy efficiency targets using innovative financing and new business models. Energy efficiency is one of the main pillars of energy and environmental policy to combat the adverse impacts of climate change. Although the implementation of energy efficiency interventions in the building sector is pivotal to drive the energy transition and achieve energy policy targets, energy efficiency investments and interventions remain critically low. Financial barriers (e.g., high upfront costs, high risk, uncertainty on return of investment, etc.) have been highlighted in the literature as the main factors hindering energy efficiency interventions. The objective of this report is to analyse and explore the functions of the Energy Efficiency Aggregator. Early experience from the U.S.A. suggests that P4P programmes have been most successful when aimed at EE Aggregators rather than individual customers. An EE Aggregator is an aggregating entity that groups a sufficient number of buildings together into an energy savings portfolio. P4P schemes that make payments to aggregators appear better able to drive innovation in energy efficiency service delivery.&nbsp

This deliverable focuses on the final step of the overall SENTINEL stakeholder engagement strategy and aims to (a). present stakeholder feedback on the usefulness of the SENTINEL modelling results for the case studies regarding the improvement of stakeholders’ decision making as well as recommendations for improved integration of model components, and (b). produce a final set of results and lessons learnt after further model application within the case study framework. To meet these objectives, we applied a four-tier participatory multi-method approach consisting of stakeholder interactions in 10 events (workshops, conferences, focus groups, bilateral meetings, etc.), in which SENTINEL modelling teams and more than 90 stakeholders participated. One important lesson learnt from our work is that modellers need to put more effort into involving non-technical audiences in the energy modelling process by making sophisticated outputs more understandable to them. This can further enable the mainstreaming of energy system modelling, as stakeholders with no background in this area can also provide feedback on the relevance of modelling and their needs. We also find out that stakeholders with technical background pay close attention to how various models are integrated and how modelling outcomes compare to those of other models when using similar scenario specifications and assumptions. We observe that further research and modelling studies should aim at better capturing the effects of fossil-fuel price uncertainty and eliciting strategic choices about a quicker reduction in the reliance on fossil fuels, particularly Russian oil and gas. In addition, stakeholders are interested in learning how citizen-led energy transition pathways can be realised and consider that people-powered storylines should be further disseminated in energy scenario specifications. Finally, we find out that behavioural change is a critical challenge towards achieving the climate neutral goal., The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The authors would like to thank SENTINEL colleagues for their contributions to specific sections relevant to their models and modelling themes. The authors would also like to thank the stakeholders that participated to the stakeholder workshop in Athens, the online deep-dive sessions, the online SENTINEL final event, and other bilateral event/meetings. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the EC.

The European Commission (EC)-funded H2020 Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL) project has applied a participatory approach including three steps: i. investigating how to adjust modelling tools based on modelling users' needs and test their applicability in three case studies at three different geographical scales: National (Greece), Regional (Nordic region) and Continental (Europe), ii. engaging experts representing various stakeholder groups to understand the key challenges to reaching climate neutrality and specify the most critical and policy-relevant contextual questions that energy system models should be able to respond to, and iii. involving stakeholders in the model application process to implement further modelling refinements based on their feedback. This report serves as a summary of the SENTINEL stakeholder workshop and captures our discussion and findings tackling the different dimensions of the energy transition in Europe with a focus on Greece. The workshop entitled “Pathways to climate neutrality in Europe with a spotlight on Greece: Challenges, uncertainties, solutions” took place as a physical workshop in Greece on the 30th of June 2022. The SENTINEL researchers presented key modelling results from the Continental and the National case studies and collected feedback on potential further model refinements and improvements required, the usefulness of the modelling insights and how to best disseminate them, as well as the identification of any further research questions that need to be answered by the SENTINEL modelling ensemble. Participants stated a variety of different critical issues and challenges related to the energy transition of the European and Greek energy systems. These insights also meant to further inform the research questions that had been identified in previous stakeholder engagement activities. Given the recent upheaval due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the consequent energy crisis that coincides with our work, these questions could be (re)considered by the SENTINEL consortium to accurately capture current developments in Europe. Finally, discussions and inputs from stakeholders revealed meaningful viewpoints that could be incorporated in the further development of the SENTINEL modelling suite., The authors would like to thank all stakeholders for dedicating their time and providing us with important input during the workshop and all SENTINEL partners for their commitment in presenting their outcomes. The authors would, also, like to acknowledge the support from the European Commission. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the European Commission.

This report contributes to the modelling work in SENTINEL and beyond in three main ways. First, we provide three social storylines that are closely linked to different governance logics and build on observed social and political drivers and barriers in the European energy transition. This is different than most other storylines used for modelling, because ours are based on governance patterns and normative assumptions of a “good future”, and not on the more commonly used geopolitical or techno-economic storyline assumptions. Second, we provide quantitative, empirical data for several important social/political parameters that can be used together with the storylines or as separate building blocks to answer specific research questions with energy models. Third, to test the usefulness of QTDIAN, we have soft-linked QTDIAN with the energy demand models DESSTINEE, HEB and DREEM, the energy system design model Euro-Calliope, and indirectly with the economic model WEGDYN. Based on feedback from the modelling exercises, we have revised QTDIAN and publish now this updated report 2.0 to improve its usefulness for a more realistic analysis of potential future energy systems.

To meet the goals of the Paris Agreement and keep the current trajectory of the global temperature increase below 1.5ºC, the transformation of the current energy systems into decarbonised ones is profound. However, deciding on how the future energy systems shall be designed, to guarantee energy security, social and environmental sustainability as well as energy accessibility and affordability of energy across the population raises significant challenges. The increasing complexity and interrelatedness of various dimensions of energy led to a situation, in which existing modelling tools do not capture enough of the technological, geographic, societal and environmental details, important for designing a decarbonised energy system. The EC-funded H2020 SENTINEL project (Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory) in order to overcome these shortcomings and develop a new energy system modelling framework has applied a carefully defined, participatory approach including three steps: i. Investigating how to adjust modelling tools and check their behaviour in three case studies: national (focusing on Greece), regional (dedicated to the Nordic region) and continental (dealing with Europe). ii. Engaging stakeholders representing the policymaking sphere, energy industry, non-governmental organisations (NGOs), and scientific community, to understand the needs of modelling users. iii. Involving external actors in SENTINEL models’ application processes to give an overview about how the models work. This document presents one of the steps undertaken to realise the actions described above. It summarises the interaction with stakeholders in the context of the SENTINEL national case study, for the identification of critical issues, challenges and research priorities for the energy transition in Greece towards 2030 & 2050. The processes included six (6) physical meetings and thirteen (13) online interviews with thirty-six (36) stakeholders from the power sector, fossil fuel industry, renewable energy sources and energy efficiency sectors, as well as to policymakers from the Ministry of Environment and Energy and representatives of NGOs to identify critical topics for the medium- and the long-term national strategy. The aim of these meetings was to reflect on the national scenarios and targets suggested in the recent National Energy and Climate Plan and the Long-Term Strategy towards 2050., The authors would like to thank all stakeholders for dedicating their time and providing with important input during the consultation process. The authors would, also, like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the EC.

In the transition to a state of net-zero emissions of greenhouse gases, citizens are supposed to play a much larger role, including as self-consumers and participants in energy communities. As a result of this increasingly participatory role of citizens in the energy system the new concept of energy citizenship has emerged in the recent years. Around this term, we can also find emerging trends/ patterns that can relate to: (i.) the active participation in the energy market, such as the concept of prosumerism, smart technologies, etc., (ii.) behavioral attributes of citizens, (iii.) individual lifestyle changes, (iv.) collective initiatives and expressions of energy citizenship, and (v.) political activities. This report identifies the following trends/ patterns: Prosumerism; Formation of energy communities; Establishment of eco-villages; Lifestyle changes; Energy efficiency measures; Citizens’ behavior; Preferences towards RES; Participation in energy transition movements; Participation in energy sector planning and decision-making. Moreover, energy system modeling has been playing an increasingly important role over the past 30 years in providing useful and measurable insights about energy policies. However, energy citizenship aspects, such as the ones listed above, are still underrepresented in these models. In particular, most models take a technoeconomic approach, which limits their ability for including social aspects and dynamics, such as policy preferences and social acceptance. In this context, a parallel process of documenting the energy models that are employed in the Horizon 2020 project “ENCLUDE”, namely ATOM, DREEM, and IMAGE, entailed the detailed documentation of the current state of the three models (e.g., capabilities and limitations, input and output variables and technical characteristics, etc.). More importantly, this process enabled the specification of how the models already address some of the aforementioned trends/ patterns, such as prosumerism and behavioral aspects of citizens, and what areas of further development are necessary to address the rest of them. Finally, the various interface protocols for the soft-linking of the models are developed and presented, concerning the data transfer and “communication” between the models., The sole responsibility for the content of this publication lies with the authors. It does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the European Union. Neither CINEA nor the European Commission is responsible for any use that may be made of the information contained therein.

Achieving the European Union’s vision of climate neutrality by 2050 dictates the need to transform the role that citizens can play in decarbonizing the energy system. Yet, “which citizens to involve in this process,” “when to involve them,” and “how to do so fairly and effectively,” are questions that still remain unclear to both experts and policymakers. Energy citizenship has been discussed as a concept that has the potential to galvanize the public for the energy transition. This potential has yet to be fulfilled, as there is a need to connect theory and concepts to the realities, challenges, and opportunities of the lives of citizens, under diverse circumstances. In this perspective, we argue that the concept of energy citizenship and its potential for contributing to low carbon transitions should be studied within a research framework that aims to produce transformative knowledge. We also introduce such a new transdisciplinary framework for creating transformative knowledge to explore and address questions relevant to the concept of energy citizenship. Our framework aims to produce knowledge that can be used to mobilize decarbonization actions for both individuals and collectives, by: (i). integrating different scales of analysis and action, i.e., at individual, collective, and national/ regional/ global levels, (ii). reconceptualizing the role of research and researchers, and finally, (iii). striving to be inclusive in a meaningful and innovative way. &nbsp

This section summarizes the main findings of the work presented in this report regarding needs and priority areas for further research, for the cases of Bio-Energy with Carbon Capture and Storage (BECCS) and Solar Photovoltaic (Solar PV). BECCS technology is highly controversial. On the one hand, it demonstrates a growing number of supporters and is considered by many climate scientists, as one of the most promising negative emissions technologies, with considerable potential to achieve climate goals (e.g. the 1.5oC goal), especially in light of the recent “neutral emissions” debate. At the same time, a potential sizeable reliance on BECCS has raised concerns amongst researchers and policy makers, mainly with regard to sustainability issues (e.g. vast areas of land for the cultivation of biomass, land competing uses, food security, etc.). In contrast, Solar PV is a competitive technology, which has been proven capable to create value and provide services to many stakeholders. However, to continue its exponential growth and remain at the centre of the energy transition, it has to provide solutions to different challenges that have emerged due to its increased deployment. Our work aims to provide insights on research gaps and areas in priority that can be taken up by academic institutions and researchers, as well as associated insights, for policy decision makers to enhance the development and deployment of these two-key climate change mitigation options. To do so, our approach is focused on combining stakeholders’ perspectives and concerns with regard to future research needs and priorities, with scientific literature to conclude with specific directions for further research and applications. In particular, we used association representatives’ knowledge and position papers as a starting point for the identification of key research challenges and needs and complemented the latter by relevant and updated scientific literature in the field. Interesting findings, summarized below, arose from both stakeholder feedback and literature review., The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The authors would like to thank the stakeholders that participated in the interview meetings and the online survey. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the EC.

Policymaking under deep uncertainty implies policymakers will encounter difficulties when asked to design and implement a new policy. Predicting the future, and deciding on the most probable evolution before applying a policy, has often been unsuccessful, thus the notion of adaptive policies has emerged. By adaptive policies we mean those that focus on short-term planning, and present a robust framework of potential adjustive interventions to choose from when the initial policy is no longer expected to lead to success. Furthermore, within complex systems where environmental policies affect metrics in other sectors, policymaking has become harder, even for the short-term planning. In this report two toolboxes – an adaptation and a mitigation policy toolbox - capable of addressing these aforementioned problems and facilitating robust and successful policymaking are presented. The central concept of the adaptation toolbox is to allow stakeholders to design adaptive policies, meaning to focus on short-term policy actions followed by a set of adaptive interventions. It produces intuitive visualisations of alternative pathways (adaptation maps - mixture of policies) leading to a desired target, by evaluating a large number of scenarios, created by diverse stakeholders’ perspectives acquired through large-scale consultation. The basic functionality of the adaptation toolbox is based on the notion of model-emulation, by which a statistical model is trained using sets of inputs and outputs produced by a (heavy) model. The resulting emulator can consequently be used for fast and accurate model estimations. This is achieved using a Gaussian Process-based machine learning algorithm achieving: (i) Fast/interactive model approximations and (ii) Quantification of the uncertainties governing the modelling assumptions. To produce adaptation maps, the adaptation toolbox performs a “cause and effect” analysis to identify triggers that signpost imminent deviations from the set targets. This is done using the Patient Rule Induction Method (PRIM), clustering algorithm which identifies parameters that caused the success or failure of a specific policy instrument. An adaptation map is produced, and two sample pathways are generated according to two different hypothetical perspectives. The emulation results show that the output parameter trend is correctly predicted by the emulator. More importantly, the estimation of results required only 0.2 seconds of execution time per 10-year scenario, while the per 10-year scenario execution time in the original, bottom-up model was 4 hours. These two observations reveal the capabilities of the adaptation toolbox to produce quick and accurate simulation results. Currently, the application is equipped with macroeconomic models for Chile, Greece and Poland and allows simulation of policies such as environmental taxes, expansion plans in the electricity generation sector and sector specific mitigation actions, including changes in use of various fuels and products by the household. Thanks to the toolbox policy makers will be able to quickly obtain an initial assessment of the macroeconomic consequences of their proposed policies without the need to engage economists to perform the simulations., The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the EC.

This report discusses the improvements made in the three economic impacts models that are the modeling ensemble of SENTINEL Work Package 5, namely, the European Electricity Market Model (EMMA), the WEGDYN computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and the Business Strategy Assessment Model (BSAM). EMMA is a techno-economic model, developed to simulate the integrated north-western European power system. It models both dispatch of and investment in power plants, minimizing total costs with respect to investment, production, and trade decisions under a large set of technical constraints. WEGDYN belongs to the class of macroeconomic models, which depict the whole economy, separated into different production sectors and demand agents. At the global level, it can be configured at flexible country/regional levels. At the country/regional level, it can be configured at flexible sectoral levels. The model also differentiates private and public households across European countries/regions. The Business Strategy Assessment Model (BSAM) is an agent-based simulation model which simulates the Day-Ahead Scheduling (DAS) of wholesale electricity markets. It outputs the system marginal price (SMP), the electricity mix, the generation schedule of all resources, the profit/loss of each generator, and the level of curtailment applied to renewable energy sources. It is currently developed and calibrated to model the specificities of the Greek wholesale electricity market. Together these three models aim to capture micro- and macroeconomic impacts of the energy transition. Improvements were made to the structure and functioning of these three models to match user needs. Based on the literature review on modelling trends and paradigms, the expertise of the involved project partners, and considering user needs, we identified the following key areas for enhancing the capabilities of economic impact models covered in this project: Exploration of distributional effects at the level of economic sectors (incl. energy) and private and public households by improving the WEGDYN model. Exploration of the effects of (de)commissioning and (in) flexible energy production at a higher resolved technological level by adding these features to the EMMA model. Evaluation of the evolution of the electricity mix as RES technologies’ capacity increases in the generation portfolio by using the improved BSAM model Provision of a comprehensive, consistent and tractable assessment of the trade-offs and synergies related to the energy transition (distributional effects, emission reduction targets, competitiveness, etc.) by soft linking of EMMA, BSAM and WEGDYN., The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The authors would like to thank the stakeholders that participated in the interview meetings, the online survey and the stakeholders workshop. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the EC.

Achieving the European Union’s vision of climate neutrality by 2050 dictates the need to transform the role that citizens can play in decarbonizing the energy system. Yet, “which citizens to involve in this process,” “when to involve them,” and “how to do so fairly and effectively,” are questions that still remain unclear to both experts and policymakers. Energy citizenship has been discussed as a concept that has the potential to galvanize the public for the energy transition. This potential has yet to be fulfilled, as there is a need to connect theory and concepts to the realities, challenges, and opportunities of the lives of citizens, under diverse circumstances. In this perspective, we argue that the concept of energy citizenship and its potential for contributing to low carbon transitions should be studied within a research framework that aims to produce transformative knowledge. We also introduce such a new transdisciplinary framework for creating transformative knowledge to explore and address questions relevant to the concept of energy citizenship. Our framework aims to produce knowledge that can be used to mobilize decarbonization actions for both individuals and collectives, by: (i). integrating different scales of analysis and action, i.e., at individual, collective, and national/ regional/ global levels, (ii). reconceptualizing the role of research and researchers, and finally, (iii). striving to be inclusive in a meaningful and innovative way.

Η Ευρωπαϊκή Ένωση έχει αναλάβει σταθερά έναν ηγετικό ρόλο στο διεθνές τοπίο χάραξης πολιτικών για το κλίμα και την ενέργεια υιοθετώντας σχετικές στρατηγικές και προωθώντας μια φιλόδοξη «Πράσινη Συμφωνία» για την επίτευξη κλιματικής ουδετερότητας έως το 2050. Αν και ο δρόμος προς την κλιματική ουδετερότητα είναι μακρινός και γεμάτος αβεβαιότητες, οι αποφάσεις είναι επείγουσες: οι υπεύθυνοι χάραξης πολιτικής πρέπει από τώρα να πάρουν τις σωστές αποφάσεις που θα δημιουργήσουν τις κατάλληλες συνθήκες για ενεργειακά συστήματα τα οποία θα βασίζονται σε μεγάλα μερίδια ανανεώσιμων πηγών ενέργειας μέχρι τα μέσα του αιώνα. Οι αποφάσεις αυτές έχουν συνέπειες πολλαπλών διαστάσεων, η αξιολόγηση των οποίων, τόσο σε εθνικό όσο και σε Ευρωπαϊκό επίπεδο, δεν μπορεί να πραγματοποιηθεί βάσει εμπειρικών/ πειραματικών μεθόδων. Κατά συνέπεια, οι φορείς χάραξης πολιτικών βασίζουν τη διαδικασία λήψης αποφάσεων σε αποτελέσματα και προβλέψεις υπολογιστικών εργαλείων μοντελοποίησης/ προσομοίωσης. Τα υπολογιστικά εργαλεία αυτά μπορούν να υποστηρίξουν το σχεδιασμό πολιτικών προς ένα αβέβαιο μέλλον, ενώ μπορούν, επίσης, να αξιολογήσουν ήδη υπάρχουσες πολιτικές παρέχοντας εμπεριστατωμένη επιχειρηματολογία σχετικά με την αποτελεσματικότητα τους. Οι εξελίξεις στο πεδίο της μοντελοποίησης/ προσομοίωσης ενεργειακών συστημάτων έχουν αδιαμφισβήτητα προχωρήσει πολύ γρήγορα τις τελευταίες δύο δεκαετίες με την αύξηση της λεπτομέρειας απεικόνισης των διάφορων τομέων τελικής κατανάλωσης και του αντίστοιχου χαρτοφυλακίου τεχνολογιών. Παρόλα αυτά, οι συγκεκριμένες εξελίξεις έχουν επιφέρει, παράλληλα, και μία αύξηση της υπολογιστικής πολυπλοκότητας των υπολογιστικών εργαλείων αυτών, τα οποία γίνονται ολοένα και μεγαλύτερα και πιο σύνθετα, παραμένοντας συνεχώς στα όρια αυτού που είναι υπολογιστικά εφικτό. Ωστόσο, δεν είναι ακόμα σαφές εάν τα υφιστάμενα υπολογιστικά εργαλεία μοντελοποίησης/ προσομοίωσης ενεργειακών συστημάτων γίνονται καλύτερα, με την έννοια του αν είναι ικανά να δώσουν απαντήσεις σε όλα τα κρίσιμα θέματα του ενεργειακού σχεδιασμού στο δρόμο προς την κλιματική ουδετερότητα του 2050, με τρόπο ο οποίος θα είναι χρήσιμος για τους τελικούς χρήστες των αποτελεσμάτων τους. Ένα από τα μεγαλύτερα μειονεκτήματα των υφιστάμενων εργαλείων είναι ότι εστιάζουν περισσότερο στο κομμάτι της προσφοράς ενέργειας, ενώ η πλευρά της ζήτησης παραμένει ελλιπώς εκπροσωπούμενη, εστιάζοντας κυρίως σε σενάρια βελτίωσης της ενεργειακής εξοικονόμησης. Επιπρόσθετα, η ανάγκη για διεπιστημονικότητα επιτάσσει όχι μόνο τη διερεύνηση του “τι”, αλλά και την αξιολόγηση της σκοπιμότητας και της επιθυμητότητας, από την άποψη του “πότε”, του “πού”, και, ιδιαίτερα, του για “ποιον.” Χωρίς τους απαραίτητους μετασχηματισμούς συμπεριφοράς των κοινωνικών υποδομών, ο κόσμος αντιμετωπίζει μια ανεπαρκή απάντηση στην πρόκληση της κλιματικής αλλαγής. Λαμβάνοντας υπόψιν ότι οι συμπεριφορικοί μετασχηματισμοί θα ξεκινήσουν από τον τομέα της ζήτησης, μιας και εκεί οι τελικοί χρήστες/ καταναλωτές έχουν πιο άμεσο ρόλο, χρειαζόμαστε ένα ολιστικό πλαίσιο διεπιστημονικότητας για την επαρκή μοντελοποίηση/ προσομοίωση του ρόλου και της επίδρασης των ανθρώπινων επιλογών στη μετάβαση προς οικονομίες/ κοινωνίες χαμηλών εκπομπών διοξειδίου του άνθρακα, ξεκινώντας από τις επιθυμίες των ατόμων και αναλύοντας επαρκώς το “πώς” αυτά αλληλοεπιδρούν με το ενεργειακό και οικονομικό τοπίο, οδηγώντας σε συστημική αλλαγή σε μάκρο-επίπεδο. Σε αυτό το πλαίσιο, προκύπτει η ανάγκη βελτίωσης των υφιστάμενων υπολογιστικών εργαλείων μοντελοποίησης/ προσομοίωσης ενεργειακών συστημάτων, καθώς επίσης η ανάπτυξη νέων που θα αποσκοπούν στην περαιτέρω διερεύνηση ακραίων σεναρίων ενεργειακής μετάβασης και καινοτόμων ερευνητικών ερωτήσεων που αφορούν όλο το φάσμα της ενεργειακής βιωσιμότητας. Τα υπολογιστικά εργαλεία νέας γενιάς θα πρέπει να στοχεύουν στην απλή και κατανοητή αναπαράσταση των υπό μελέτη συστημάτων, καθώς επίσης και στον αρθρωτό τρόπο περαιτέρω ανάπτυξης/ εφαρμογής τους, ώστε να επιτρέπεται η εύκολη διασύνδεσή τους με άλλα πιο εξειδικευμένα εργαλεία. Με αυτό τον τρόπο θα είναι εφικτή η διερεύνηση πρόσθετων ερευνητικών ερωτημάτων της ενεργειακής μετάβασης, προσφέροντας πιο εύρωστη και απτή υποστήριξη στους διάφορους τελικούς χρήστες και ενδιαφερόμενα μέρη. Επίσης, η επίλυση θεμάτων διαφάνειας και ανοιχτής πρόσβασης είναι ζωτικής σημασίας, επίσης, ιδιαίτερα στα πλαίσια προώθησης ενός εποικοδομητικού διαλόγου κατά τη διαδικασία χάραξης πολιτικών και λήψης αποφάσεων. Λαμβάνοντας υπόψιν τα άνωθεν, είναι απαραίτητο να διευρύνουμε το πεδίο εφαρμογής των υπολογιστικών εργαλείων μοντελοποίησης/ προσομοίωσης ενεργειακών συστημάτων σε ζητήματα διαχείρισης της ενεργειακής ζήτησης και επίτευξης ευελιξίας, ενσωματώνοντας παράλληλα πτυχές που αφορούν τη (επενδυτική) συμπεριφορά των τελικών χρηστών/ καταναλωτών, ώστε να επιτευχθεί ο σχεδιασμός των κατάλληλων πολιτικών που θα επιτρέψουν στους τελικούς χρήστες/ καταναλωτές να συμμετέχουν πιο ενεργά στην επικείμενη ενεργειακή μετάβαση, καθώς, επίσης, και να αξιολογηθεί επαρκώς το απαραίτητο χαρτοφυλάκιο τεχνολογιών ενεργειακής μετάβασης. Σε αυτό το πλαίσιο, αντικείμενο της παρούσας Διδακτορικής Διατριβής αποτελεί η ανάπτυξη υπολογιστικών εργαλείων μοντελοποίησης/ προσομοίωσης ενεργειακών συστημάτων που εστιάζουν στο ρεαλιστικό σχεδιασμό, και στην ανάπτυξη και εφαρμογή καινοτόμων ρυθμιστικών πλαισίων και προϊόντων/ υπηρεσιών για την ενδυνάμωση του ρόλου των τελικών χρηστών/ καταναλωτών στην ενεργειακή μετάβαση και στην παροχή κινήτρων με σκοπό την αύξηση της ευελιξίας της ζήτησης. Οι δομές μοντελοποίησης που αναπτύχθηκαν βελτιώνουν τα υφιστάμενα υπολογιστικά εργαλεία προσομοίωσης μοντελοποιώντας επαρκώς τα χαρακτηριστικά του προβλήματος, και υποστηρίζοντας τη διαδικασία λήψης αποφάσεων των εθνικών φορέων χάραξης πολιτικής για το σχεδιασμό αποτελεσματικότερων εργαλείων πολιτικής στα πλαίσια επίτευξης των κλιματικών και ενεργειακών στόχων. Μέσω μιας εμπεριστατωμένης ανάλυσης όλων των παραμέτρων του προβλήματος και της ανάπτυξης μίας βάσης τεκμηρίωσης, αναπτύχθηκαν πιο ρεαλιστικά και διαφανή υπολογιστικά εργαλεία μοντελοποίησης, εστιάζοντας στην αρθρωτή δομή ανάπτυξης και εφαρμογής, τα οποία μπορούν να χρησιμοποιηθούν για να προσομοιώσουν διάφορες πτυχές του ενεργειακού συστήματος και να εξερευνήσουν/ αξιολογήσουν τη σχέση κόστους-οφέλους υπαρχόντων αλλά και καινοτόμων ρυθμιστικών πλαισίων, προϊόντων και υπηρεσιών για όλους τους εμπλεκόμενους φορείς. Η διαθεσιμότητα πραγματικών και εθνικά αντιπροσωπευτικών δεδομένων τα οποία συλλέχθηκαν στο πλαίσιο έργων χρηματοδοτούμενων από την Ευρωπαϊκή Επιτροπή, διαμόρφωσαν το σχεδιασμό του μεθοδολογικού πλαισίου μοντελοποίησης και αποτέλεσαν σημαντικό στοιχείο της προτεινόμενης προσέγγισης καθώς και των αποτελεσμάτων της. Τέλος, η εφαρμογή του προτεινόμενου πλαισίου μοντελοποίησης και προσομοίωσης στην πραγματική μελέτη περίπτωσης του μίγματος των εργαλείων εθνικής πολιτικής, καθώς και των τεχνολογιών ανανεώσιμων πηγών ενέργειας και εξοικονόμησης, στον Ελληνικό οικιακό τομέα, επέτρεψε την αξιολόγηση της πληρότητας και της αξιοπιστίας των αποτελεσμάτων που παρέχει η προτεινόμενη Διδακτορική Διατριβή. Αυτό επιτεύχθηκε μέσω της ανάπτυξης των πλαισίων μοντελοποίησης/ προσομοίωσης σε στενή συνεργασία με τους εθνικούς φορείς χάραξης πολιτικής και τα ενδιαφερόμενα μέρη του Ελληνικού ενεργειακού συστήματος., The actions proposed by the European Green Deal aim at increasing the European Union’s climate ambition and are expected to lead to the complete transformation of the current energy system, by investing in feasible and innovative technological options, and by empowering end-users (i.e., citizens and consumers) and including them in the energy transition. In this context, energy system models have been used for policy advice and in policymaking processes in Europe, such as to explore potential energy futures or alternative socio-technical pathways and scenarios. While existing models have provided valuable information about how to make marginal modifications to the current energy system in ways that will reduce costs, and, thereby, enhance economic growth, they were not designed to support the transition to energy systems dominated by intermittent renewable energy sources. Accelerating the energy transition towards climate neutrality by 2050 in Europe requires us to develop a new set of modelling tools, able to represent and analyse the drivers and barriers to complete decarbonisation, including decentralisation, a large-scale expansion of fluctuating renewables-based power leading to a vastly increased need for system-side flexibility, sector coupling, including the electrification of mobility and heating, and the impacts of different market designs on the behaviour of energy sector actors. In addition, without the necessary behavioural and societal transformations, the world faces an inadequate response to the climate crisis challenge. This could result from poor uptake of low-carbon technologies, continued high-carbon intensive lifestyles, or economy-wide rebound effects. In this context, it is important to acknowledge that the shift to a more decentralised vision of a low carbon energy system in Europe, where end-users take ownership of the energy transition, benefit from new technologies to reduce their bills, and actively participate in the market, implies that part of the necessary infrastructure will be only developed if they are willing to invest in the technological capabilities required. However, while technological infrastructure is already available, business models and regulatory innovations are needed in order to find ways to maximise the value of the technological capabilities, as well as to monetise them, to compensate end-users. This doctoral dissertation thesis builds on these insights, and, by developing two new energy system models, contributes to the analysis of innovative regulatory designs and product-service offerings that could incentivise end-users to actively participate in the energy transition and invest in demand flexibility. In particular, the thesis acknowledges the need to improve understanding on how the interactions between the key characteristics of end-users’ behaviour affect investment decisions, and on the specific benefits of different technological capacities for engaging end-users and incentivising household-level changes towards energy autonomy. In this context, the dissertation thesis is structured around three main pillars: • In the first pillar, the thesis asks questions of “what,” “how,” and “why,” considering the problem of policy instrument design as a multifaceted problem with different objectives to satisfy instead of just a fixed target. It focuses on the policy landscape of the past (“what”) and “how” this has incentivised end-users so far to participate to the energy transition. This allows to learn from past failures (“why”) by identifying evaluation objectives and criteria that could be used to make better-informed judgments on policy instrument (re)design and selection to, eventually, (re)adjust future planning and decision-making. To this end, an analytical framework that facilitates the systematic exploration of the impact that policy measures have on the electricity system and its components was developed, building on the premise that understanding and quantifying the major monetary flows in the electricity market can contribute to the efficiency assessment of policy interventions, and that assessing how a policy measure affects the performance of the energy market requires the quantification of both the benefits and the costs attributed to it. In the second pillar, the dissertation thesis focuses on the interaction between the policy landscape and end-users, i.e., the technological infrastructure required and its role in empowering end-users to participate more actively to the energy transition. Alternative regulatory designs, which are currently showcased in different geographical and socioeconomic contexts in the EU were considered, to evaluate their potential effectiveness in driving investments in the necessary technological infrastructure. Considering that people and their social interactions greatly influence the diffusion and use of technology and further shape overall technological transition dynamics, investment criteria, and different decision-making behaviours were also explored, since many technical innovations and public policies often fail because they do not sufficiently consider what matters to people (i.e., the motivating factors shaping their adoption preferences). To do so, a new energy system model, the Agent-based Technology adOption Model (ATOM), was developed, which, apart from exploring the expected effectiveness of technology adoption under regulatory designs of interest, allows to consider and explicitly quantify the uncertainties that are related to agents’ preferences and decision-making criteria (i.e., behavioural uncertainty). • In the third pillar, the approach of the two previous pillars is expanded by focusing on the end-users’ perspective. The main premise is that, in order for end-users to have a more active participation to the energy transition, they first need to become more aware of the benefits from investing in new technological capabilities. While technological infrastructure is often available, business models and regulatory innovations are needed to find ways to maximise the value of these technological capabilities, as well as to monetise them, to compensate end-users. To this end, “game changer” business models in terms of different configurations of innovative product-service offerings, which could incentivise end-users to invest in demand flexibility, were evaluated. In addition, market-oriented regulatory designs, which eliminate aspects of subsidisation and implement more advanced market rules that could affect the behaviour and consumption patterns of end-users were explored. To do so, a fully integrated dynamic high-resolution model embodying key features that are not found together in existing demand-side management models was developed. In particular, the hybrid bottom-up Dynamic high-Resolution dEmand-sidE Management (DREEM) model combines key features of both statistical and engineering models and serves as an entry point in demand-side management modelling in the building sector, by expanding the computational capabilities of existing building energy simulation models, to assess the benefits and limitations of demand flexibility for residential end-users. Finally, to test the analytical framework developed under the first pillar, and to demonstrate the usefulness and the applicability of the two new energy system models, this dissertation thesis used as a testing ground the case of Greece. In this context, feasible and robust decarbonisation pathways were developed and agreed with a variety of stakeholders under the European Commission-funded Horizon 2020 projects “CARISMA,” “TRANSrisk,” and “SENTINEL,” which were, then, modelled via the developed agent-based and demand-side management modelling architectures. This enabled to identify not just least-cost pathways, which have traditionally dominated modelling exercises, but rather institutionally and socially preferred, and politically realistic transition pathways, in line with current and increased decarbonisation ambitions.

The demand side plays a pivotal role in order to understand the expanse of the whole energy system, especially when one considers the European Union’s (EU) commitment to climate neutrality by 2050, in the context of which, energy demand needs to be reduced substantially. Therefore, the role of policies that support energy efficiency measures and demand-side management practices will be critical; however, the impacts of such policies can only be explored ex-ante using energy demand models. In this context, the energy demand models (EDMs) used in the Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL) project provide yearly and hourly future demand profiles for each of the EU Member States. However, EDMs, including the ones used in SENTINEL, namely: BEVPO, DESSTINEE, DREEM, and HEB, are often criticized for not incorporating dynamic GDP, or socio-political dimensions. Having that in mind, the SENTINEL EDMs will be soft-linked with the QTDIAN toolbox from WP2 to incorporate storylines of different socio-political developments, while calculating the future energy demand. Furthermore, the SENTINEL EDMs use a linear economic (mainly GDP) projection as input data to calculate future energy demand profiles. However, the linear projection of economic input usually excludes market uncertainties, and hence, makes model outputs less realistic. To overcome this limitation in SENTINEL, EDMs will be also soft-linked with the macroeconomic model WEGDYN from WP5. This soft-linking will make the output of the SENTINEL EDMs much more realistic, and, hence, it is expected to increase their useability in decision-making. Thus, the demand profiles, more precisely the hourly and yearly demand profiles for the building, transport and industry sectors, will be used in WP4 as an input to calculate the energy balance in the context of the transition to climate neutrality in the EU. Finally, to make these exercises more policy relevant, all the aforementioned soft-linkages will take place for three case studies of different heterogeneous geographical scales and policy characteristics, namely: a. Greece (National level), b. Nordic countries (Regional level), and c. EU, Switzerland, and United Kingdom (Continental level). These case studies will serve as the testing ground to demonstrate the applicability of the SENTINEL EDMs, test their usefulness for potential end-users, and provide policy-relevant answers to different research questions, as identified in WP7. Overall, this report documents the technical details of the WP3–related soft-linking activities in SENTINEL and further discusses the expected impact of their application to the three case studies.

This report examines the structural barriers preventing investment in energy efficiency measures in Europe’s Private Rented Sector (PRS) housing stock. The analysis is undertaken with reference to the broader trends in private renting, the regulatory landscape that currently exists, and the need to reduce social vulnerability and income poverty more generally. An introduction detailing historical and geographical trends in Europe, using case studies, and elaborating upon research and policy analysis from previous ENPOR project reports, serves to provide the starting point of the review. Following desk-based reviews of academic and grey literature, we identified Financial, Political/Regulatory, Social, and Geographical factors as key barriers to the implementation of energy efficiency policies in the PRS, which provide the backbone structure of this review. Several strands of analysis are drawn upon, including expert viewpoints and a stakeholder survey. The primary survey was conducted with a range of stakeholders working in the field of energy poverty, energy efficiency, housing, and decarbonisation, and served to generate primary data on knowledge of policies, ratings of importance on the identified barriers and governance scales, and understandings of the effects of policy on vulnerable groups. Partners from the ENPOR Consortium also provided expert situated viewpoints, which were drawn together to provide a holistic overview of factors contributing to the key barriers, as well as suggesting potential solutions from a multi-stakeholder perspective, supplemented by the survey’s findings. A common theme running throughout our analyses and recommendations is that solutions to energy poverty in the private rented sector are situated across the barriers, and are ultimately financial, social, political/regulatory and technical. Although a practical way of identifying structural factors that can prevent investment in energy efficiency, this is where we reach the limits of the conceptual notion of ‘barriers’ as an explanatory tool for understanding the persistent energy poverty, housing quality and energy efficiency related challenges., The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The authors would like to thank the stakeholders that participated in the online survey. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the EC.

European Union (EU) leaders recently agreed a more ambitious 2030 climate target which, among other things, means at least doubling the annual overall energy renovation rate of 1%. In this context, intensified actions to rapidly accelerate the decarbonisation of the building sector are needed. However, retrofit actions are hindered by barriers at different stages: from the initial decision to renovate, to financing and completing energy efficiency projects. To overcome these barriers, it is necessary to act on different fronts to foster better use of EU and national public funds and mobilise a greater share of private funds. EU and national public funds should be better communicated and target end-users more effectively. Innovative financing solutions can be found in performance-based schemes, like pay for performance (P4P), which have been used so far to engage both energy and third-party service providers, mainly in North American energy efficiency projects. In P4P schemes, financial flows between the parties involved are linked to the actual/ metered and weather-normalised energy savings produced by the retrofit project. P4P schemes also rely on energy efficiency aggregators, which group buildings together into an energy savings portfolio. The energy efficiency aggregator usually acts as the intermediary between the client and the programme implementer and is compensated for delivering energy savings. However, despite the benefits that P4P models may provide, they have not yet been adopted in the EU. This report focuses on ways that policy and regulatory developments in the EU may become risks or opportunities for P4P schemes. In particular, the main goal of this study is to analyse the directives, policies and measures already adopted, as well as those under consideration by the EU. Based on a comprehensive literature review, a Strengths-Weaknesses-Opportunities-Threats (SWOT) analysis, interviews with key stakeholders from the field, and an EU-wide online survey, we identify regulatory opportunities for P4P schemes considering the different policy measures and market uptakes. Finally, based on insights from all the different parts of our work, we devise and present ten (10) integrated strategies for rolling-out P4P schemes in the EU, by considering existing and upcoming regulatory frameworks, the exploitation of opportunities that may emerge and adaptation to potentially unfavourable developments., The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The authors would like to thank the stakeholders that participated in the interview meetings and the online survey. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessary reflect the views of the EC.

While energy system models are important tools supporting decision- and policymakers, they are often monolithic, and, therefore, not particularly versatile and not able to address all types of problems related to the energy transition. Although models have become more complex, it does not necessarily mean that they are better suited to answer the questions asked, and address the challenges faced by decision- and policymakers. To overcome the challenges and limitations of current modelling approaches within the SENTINEL project, we will apply and validate different updated models of the SENTINEL modelling suite in three case studies of different spatial scales. In this deliverable, we aim to (i). identify and specify policy-relevant scenarios, along with the respective energy targets, and qualitative narratives to base modelling simulations on, and (ii). identify contextual critical issues and challenges in energy system planning, and specific research questions, to which the SENTINEL models will attempt to provide answers, accounting for particularities of diverse spatial scales. The main research questions of our work are: “What scenarios should we apply in each of the SENTINEL case studies?” and “What are the main challenges and research questions by decision- and policymakers that the SENTINEL models should be able to answer?” The specifications for scenarios, narratives, and the extended list of research questions of this deliverable will inform further work within the SENTINEL project. More specifically, SENTINEL modellers will set up their models by using the scenarios and assumptions for the three case studies and will conduct model-based analysis attempting to provide answers to the comprehensive list of research questions identified in this report., The authors would like to acknowledge the support from the EC. The authors would like to thank SENTINEL colleagues for their contributions to specific sections relevant to their models and modelling themes. The authors would also like to thank the stakeholders that participated in the case study interview meetings, focus groups, and thematic workshops. The content of this report is the sole responsibility of its authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the EC.

Energy demand globally has been increasing over the last few decades and, in order to achieve climate neutrality in the EU by 2050, the demand for energy needs to be reduced without affecting the comfort of the citizens. Therefore, the role of energy efficiency measures and renewable energy use has become pivotal in energy science. However, designing policies related to the promotion of energy efficiency or usage of renewable energy depends immensely on the evidence/predictions for a set of scenarios up to a certain timeline that can be provided by the energy demand models. In other words, the findings of energy models can help in identifying the focus area of the policies. Thus, different sector-specific energy demand models can showcase the impact of different policy measures on final energy demand. Since the policy-design in a way depends on the findings of energy demand models, we need to understand whether the demand models can incorporate all of the key parameters and needs of model users (such as policymakers, academicians, NGOs, etc.) into consideration while calculating final energy demand. Thus, to understand the different user needs, this study has used a three-tier methodological approach consisting of a focused literature review (conducted under SENTINEL Deliverables D3.1 and D1.2), an online survey and online interviews with different user groups, and lastly, stakeholder workshops. This three-tier methodological approach unfolds mainly two categories of user-needs: generic/transversal user-needs, and sector-specific user-needs. With the help of four different demand models used in SENTINEL, most of the user-needs are taken into account and this report discusses in detail how individual user-needs are getting addressed through demand models. Some of the user-needs (for example ‘energy demand transition between 2030- 2050’ and ‘role of renewable electricity to meet demand’) can be addressed with the SENTINEL demand models without requiring any upgrades of the models. However, for some of the needs (such as ‘onsite energy production (prosumer profile)’ for the building sector, or ‘fleet distribution’ in the mobility sector) the respective demand models for each sector need some upgrades to address the needs. The objective of this report is to discuss each of the user-needs identified through our three-tier methodology and, further, to document how these needs can be incorporated when calculating final energy demand until 2050. Lastly, this report discusses the next steps after incorporating the energy-needs and also defines a conceptual framework on how different demand models can come together to calculate the sector specific total energy demand which can be then used by the SENTINEL system design and supply modelling module in WP4.

Topic LC-SC3-CC-2-2018 of the Horizon 2020 work program: Modelling in support to the transition to a Low-Carbon Energy System in Europe Although energy models advance rapidly in termsof technical and techno-economic details, social and political aspects and environmental burdensbeyond greenhouse gas emissions are currently underrepresented. However, in light of the European Green Deal and the EU Energy Union Strategy, models must advance in terms of social and environmental considerations to support decision-and policymakers in adequately addressing that environmental burdenand to put "citizens at its core" of the energy transition. In this deliverable, we present key user-needs for environmentaland social aspects that need to be better represented in energy system models (Section 2), and how we have developed and adapted the modelling tools ENVIRO, QTDIAN, and ATOM in response to the identifieduserneeds. We showthree main userneeds regarding social aspects, specifically(i)social impacts on energy politics and policies, (ii) the social acceptance of energy technologiesand infrastructure, and (iii) consumers'behavior in energy models. We furthermore show that users consider relevant the following factors within the environmental aspects of energy scenarios: (iv) demandof raw materials/circularity, (v) the implications on nature and biodiversity, as well as (vi) full life-cycle impactsand externalization.ENVIRO and QTDIANare being developed within SENTINEL in a participatory process by engaging with stakeholdersin the information and development stagesof the model implementation. In contrast, ATOM is adapted by consideringuser-needs especially in the implementationstage. We conclude that we have benefited from the insights of model users and other stakeholders, and that this will allow us to make our modelling tools fit-for-purpose. All three modelling tools will support decision-makers by answering the most importantof the questions usershave risenwithin the SENTINEL stakeholder engagement process. Model-linking within the WP2 and other WPs will ensure that the understanding of environmental and social aspects is strengthened in energy system models and will be embedded in the overall SENTINEL platform.

In this report, we identify the needs of the energy model users and the users of energy model results in policy, industry, civil society, and science, both in the present and future. Based on a comprehensive literature review, qualitative interviews in five European jurisdictions, a survey, and a workshop, we identify what different user groups need from energy models: What types of questions, input, and results are useful to them? We also identify user needs regarding the modeling platform of SENTINEL: How do we need to define such a platform to make it worthwhile for potential users?

Achieving the EU’s commitment under the Paris Agreement, the Energy Union Strategy, and the European Green Deal, requires a significant transformation of current energy systems. Renewable energy is a major component of this transition, and thus, policymakers face the challenge of making decisions about new renewables-dominated energy systems. Because real world experimentation is in large scale not possible, models can serve as ‘laboratories’ by allowing policymakers to explore different decarbonisation options in a virtual world and generate a better understanding of the policy domain. While many energy policies are backed by computational models, we do not know exactly how and when policymakers use models, and to what extend policymakers influence modelling performed. We take these gaps as a starting point to empirically investigate the twofold processual interaction between computational energy modelling and energy policymaking.

This report aims to review the current experience of Pay-for-Performance (P4P) schemes outsidethe EU, in particular with examples from the U.S. (11 in total) as well as one case from the EU (Germany),and to document the main enablers and obstacles for the roll-out of the first P4P pilots in theEU. Results include recommendations for the market and regulatory conditions that would benecessary for the replication of the studied P4P pilots/programmes in the EU,which, if acted upon, should speed up the rate of energyefficiency improvement in the EU’s buildings while reducing the costs of the energy transition.