Report on the development of decarbonization pathways based on social innovations of energy citizenship: Deliverable 5.2. Energy Citizens for Inclusive Decarbonization (ENCLUDE)

The process of decision-making on climate and energy policy is a challenging task, which is affected by an important number of internal and external factors that influence the dynamics of the energy system. It is critical to investigate and understand how a specific policy instrument affects various sectors and to employ model-based scenarios to examine potential environmental and energy-related trends influenced by uncertain dynamics. In this report, we have strived for the development of a comprehensive set of narratives and scenarios that will be used in the upcoming modeling exercises to produce outcomes related to the assessment of the decarbonization potential of the energy citizenship concept. In order to reach our goal, we explored the literature around the development of decarbonization narratives and scenarios, using as a starting point insights from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Special Report on Global Warming of 1.5°C (SR1.5) and the concept of Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) to produce the most up-to-date and policy-relevant evidence on the contribution of energy citizenship in reaching climate neutrality. In particular, the five SSPs present a set of five qualitative descriptions of future changes in demographics, human development, economy and lifestyle, policies and institutions, technology, and environment and natural resources: SSP1: “Sustainability-Taking the Green Road” SSP2: “Middle of the Road” SSP3: “Regional Rivalry-A Rocky Road” SSP4: “Inequality-A Road Divided” SSP5: “Fossil-fueled Development-Taking the Highway” Based on the SSPs, we formulated three narratives, which describe future systemic changes of the society and economy in general, providing with “future worlds” that will be inhabited by citizens: “A unified world” (Citizens at the core of the energy transition, inclusive development). “A fragmented world” (Regional conflicts, countries prioritize domestic issues). “A familiar world” (Reference narrative). In parallel, we brought the citizens to the forefront with the aim of also building “people-centric” narratives, based on energy citizenship trends & patterns previously identified: “Power to the People” (Active participation in the energy market). “Band Together” (Collective expressions of energy citizenship). “Habitual Creatures” (Actions towards energy efficiency). “People to the Streets” (Political activities). “Business as usual” (Reference narrative). Finally, as a next step, and through the combination of “future worlds” and “people-centric” narratives, we will formulate specific quantitative scenarios, which will be modeled with the use of the ENCLUDE modeling ensemble, i.e., the Agent-based Technology adOption Model (ATOM), the Dynamic high-Resolution dEmand-sidE Management (DREEM) model, and the Integrated Model to Assess the Global Environment (IMAGE).
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