Integration of demand model results into system planning models

The demand side plays a pivotal role in order to understand the expanse of the whole energy system, especially when one considers the European Union’s (EU) commitment to climate neutrality by 2050, in the context of which, energy demand needs to be reduced substantially. Therefore, the role of policies that support energy efficiency measures and demand-side management practices will be critical; however, the impacts of such policies can only be explored ex-ante using energy demand models. In this context, the energy demand models (EDMs) used in the Sustainable Energy Transitions Laboratory (SENTINEL) project provide yearly and hourly future demand profiles for each of the EU Member States. However, EDMs, including the ones used in SENTINEL, namely: BEVPO, DESSTINEE, DREEM, and HEB, are often criticized for not incorporating dynamic GDP, or socio-political dimensions. Having that in mind, the SENTINEL EDMs will be soft-linked with the QTDIAN toolbox from WP2 to incorporate storylines of different socio-political developments, while calculating the future energy demand. Furthermore, the SENTINEL EDMs use a linear economic (mainly GDP) projection as input data to calculate future energy demand profiles. However, the linear projection of economic input usually excludes market uncertainties, and hence, makes model outputs less realistic. To overcome this limitation in SENTINEL, EDMs will be also soft-linked with the macroeconomic model WEGDYN from WP5. This soft-linking will make the output of the SENTINEL EDMs much more realistic, and, hence, it is expected to increase their useability in decision-making. Thus, the demand profiles, more precisely the hourly and yearly demand profiles for the building, transport and industry sectors, will be used in WP4 as an input to calculate the energy balance in the context of the transition to climate neutrality in the EU. Finally, to make these exercises more policy relevant, all the aforementioned soft-linkages will take place for three case studies of different heterogeneous geographical scales and policy characteristics, namely: a. Greece (National level), b. Nordic countries (Regional level), and c. EU, Switzerland, and United Kingdom (Continental level). These case studies will serve as the testing ground to demonstrate the applicability of the SENTINEL EDMs, test their usefulness for potential end-users, and provide policy-relevant answers to different research questions, as identified in WP7. Overall, this report documents the technical details of the WP3–related soft-linking activities in SENTINEL and further discusses the expected impact of their application to the three case studies.