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1. Effects of model calibration on hydrological and water resources management simulations under climate change in a semi-arid watershed

Author: Koch, Hagen, Silva, Ana Lígia Chaves, Liersch, Stefan, de Azevedo, José Roberto Gonçalves, Hattermann, Fred Fokko, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany, and Departamento de Eng. Civil, Centro de Tecnologia e Geociências—CTG, Universidade Federal de Pernambuco—UFPE, Recife, Brazil
Subjects: Pajeú watershed, Hydrology, Atmospheric Science, Global and Planetary Change, Watershed, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Discharge, 0208 environmental biotechnology, SWIM, 02 engineering and technology, 01 natural sciences, 020801 environmental engineering, Water management, Water resources, Semi-arid, Evapotranspiration, ddc:551.48, Soil water, Climate change, Environmental science, Precipitation, Water cycle, Surface runoff, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Semi-arid regions are known for erratic precipitation patterns with significant effects on the hydrological cycle and water resources availability. High temporal and spatial variation in precipitation causes large variability in runoff over short durations. Due to low soil water storage capacity, base flow is often missing and rivers fall dry for long periods. Because of its climatic characteristics, the semi-arid north-eastern region of Brazil is prone to droughts. To counter these, reservoirs were built to ensure water supply during dry months. This paper describes problems and solutions when calibrating and validating the eco-hydrological model SWIM for semi-arid regions on the example of the Pajeú watershed in north-eastern Brazil. The model was calibrated to river discharge data before the year 1983, with no or little effects of water management, applying a simple and an enhanced approach. Uncertainties result mainly from the meteorological data and observed river discharges. After model calibration water management was included in the simulations. Observed and simulated reservoir volumes and river discharges are compared. The calibrated and validated models were used to simulate the impacts of climate change on hydrological processes and water resources management using data of two representative concentration pathways (RCP) and five earth system models (ESM). The differences in changes in natural and managed mean discharges are negligible ( 5%) under RCP2.6 for the ESM ensemble mean. In semi-arid catchments, the enhanced approach should be preferred, because in addition to discharge, a second variable, here evapotranspiration, is considered for model validation., BMBF Germany, BMGF Germany
Published: 2020
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2. Air quality co-benefits of ratcheting up the NDCs

Author: Rauner, Sebastian, Hilaire, Jérôme, Klein, David, Strefler, Jessica, Luderer, Gunnar, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Member of the Leibniz Association, Potsdam, Germany, and Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) gGmbH, Berlin, Germany
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, Resource (biology), 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, media_common.quotation_subject, Air pollution, Climate change, 010501 environmental sciences, medicine.disease_cause, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, 12. Responsible consumption, 11. Sustainability, medicine, Co-benefits, Air quality index, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, media_common, Global and Planetary Change, Social cost, ddc:363.73, 3. Good health, Climate change mitigation, 13. Climate action, Damages, Environmental science, ddc:620, Health impacts, Welfare
Abstract: The current nationally determined contributions, pledged by the countries under the Paris Agreement, are far from limiting climate change to below 2 ∘C temperature increase by the end of the century. The necessary ratcheting up of climate policy is projected to come with a wide array of additional benefits, in particular a reduction of today’s 4.5 million annual premature deaths due to poor air quality. This paper therefore addresses the question how climate policy and air pollution–related health impacts interplay until 2050 by developing a comprehensive global modeling framework along the cause and effect chain of air pollution–induced social costs. We find that ratcheting up climate policy to a 2 ∘ compliant pathway results in welfare benefits through reduced air pollution that are larger than mitigation costs, even with avoided climate change damages neglected. The regional analysis demonstrates that the 2 ∘C pathway is therefore, from a social cost perspective, a “no-regret option” in the global aggregate, but in particular for China and India due to high air quality benefits, and also for developed regions due to net negative mitigation costs. Energy and resource exporting regions, on the other hand, face higher mitigation cost than benefits. Our analysis further shows that the result of higher health benefits than mitigation costs is robust across various air pollution control scenarios. However, although climate mitigation results in substantial air pollution emission reductions overall, we find significant remaining emissions in the transport and industry sectors even in a 2 ∘C world. We therefore call for further research in how to optimally exploit climate policy and air pollution control, deriving climate change mitigation pathways that maximize co-benefits.
Published: 2020

3. Locked into Copenhagen pledges -- Implications of short-term emission targets for the cost and feasibility of long-term climate goals

Author: International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Postdam Institute, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ; RIVM, Joint Global Change Research Institute ; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Wageningen University ; wageningen University, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) ; École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - AgroParisTech - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, équipe EDDEN ; Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires (PACTE) ; CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF) - CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF), Paul Scherrer Institute ; Paul Scherrer Institute, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth ; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Bocconi University ; Bocconi University, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) ; National Technical University of Athens, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) ; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam ; affiliation inconnue, Chaire MPDD, European Project : 265139, ENV, FP7-ENV-2010, AMPERE(2011), Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, Den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, L Mccollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, Edenhofer, Ottmar, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) ; International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Postdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ; Postdam Institute, Netherlands National Institute for Public Health and the Environment (RIVM) ; RIVM, Joint Global Change Research Institute ; Joint Global Change Research Institute, Wageningen University ; wageningen University, PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency ; PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM) ; Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK) ; Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED) ; École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS) - AgroParisTech - Centre de coopération internationale en recherche agronomique pour le développement [CIRAD] - École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC) - CNRS, équipe EDDEN ; Politiques publiques, ACtion politique, TErritoires (PACTE) ; CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF) - CNRS - Université Pierre Mendès France (Grenoble 2 UPMF) - Sciences Po Grenoble - Institut d'études politiques de Grenoble (IEPG) - Université Joseph Fourier (Grenoble 1 UJF), Paul Scherrer Institute ; Paul Scherrer Institute, Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth ; Research Institute of Innovative Technology for the Earth, Bocconi University ; Bocconi University, National Technical University of Athens (NTUA) ; National Technical University of Athens, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) ; National Institute for Environmental Studies, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, P.O. Box 60 12 03, 14412 Potsdam ; affiliation inconnue, Chaire MPDD, European Project : 265139, ENV, FP7-ENV-2010, AMPERE(2011), Riahi, Keywan, Kriegler, Elmar, Johnson, Nils, Bertram, Christoph, Den Elzen, Michel, Eom, Jiyong, Schaeffer, Michiel, Edmonds, Jae, Isaac, Morna, Krey, Volker, Longden, Thomas, Luderer, Gunnar, Méjean, Aurélie, L Mccollum, David, Mima, Silvana, Turton, Hal, Van Vuuren, Detlef, Wada, Kenichi, Bosetti, Valentina, Capros, Pantelis, Criqui, Patrick, Hamdi-Cherif, Meriem, Kainuma, Mikiko, and Edenhofer, Ottmar
Abstract: International audience, This paper provides an overview of the AMPERE modeling comparison project with focus on the implications of near-term policies for the costs and attainability of long-term climate objectives. Nine modeling teams participated in the project to explore the consequences of global emissions following the proposed policy stringency of the national pledges from the Copenhagen Accord and Cancún Agreements to 2030. Specific features compared to earlier assessments are the explicit consideration of near-term 2030 emission targets as well as the systematic sensitivity analysis for the availability and potential of mitigation technologies. Our estimates show that a 2030 mitigation effort comparable to the pledges would result in a further "lock-in" of the energy system into fossil fuels and thus impede the required energy transformation to reach low greenhouse-gas stabilization levels (450 ppm CO2e). Major implications include significant increases in mitigation costs, increased risk that low stabilization targets become unattainable, and reduced chances of staying below the proposed temperature change target of 2 °C in case of overshoot. With respect to technologies, we find that following the pledge pathways to 2030 would narrow policy choices, and increases the risks that some currently optional technologies, such as carbon capture and storage (CCS) or the large-scale deployment of bioenergy, will become "a must" by 2030.

4. A protocol for the intercomparison of marine fishery and ecosystem models: Fish-MIP v1.0

Author: Tittensor, Derek P., Eddy, Tyler D., Lotze, Heike K., Galbraith, Eric D., Cheung, William, Barange, Manuel, Blanchard, Julia L., Bopp, Laurent, Bryndum-Buchholz, Andrea, Büchner, Matthias, Bulman, Catherine, Carozza, David A., Christensen, Villy, Coll, Marta, Dunne, John P., Fernandes, Jose A., Fulton, Elizabeth A., Hobday, Alistair J., Huber, Veronika, Jennings, Simon, Jones, Miranda, Lehodey, Patrick, Link, Jason S., Mackinson, Steve, Maury, Olivier, Niiranen, Susa, Oliveros-Ramos, Ricardo, Roy, Tilla, Schewe, Jacob, Shin, Yunne-Jai, Silva, Tiago, Stock, Charles A., Steenbeek, Jeroen, Underwood, Philip J., Volkholz, Jan, Watson, James R., Walker, Nicola D., Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia (UBC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [Nouvelle-Calédonie]), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research (CSIRO-MAR), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Marine Ecosystems Modeling and Monitoring by Satellites (MEMMS), CLS, MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), University of Cape Town, Instituto del Mar del Peru (IMARPE), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Computer Science, Hong Kong Baptist University (HKBU), GLOBEC IPO, Plymouth Marine Laboratory, Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Fisheries Centre, University of British Columbia, Food Science, FFUP, Division of Ecosystem Sciences, The Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, School of Geography, University of North London, Environnement et Grandes Cultures (EGC), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), UMR 212 EME 'écosystèmes marins exploités' (EME), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Chimie des Interactions Plasma-Surface (ChIPS) (ChIPS), Université de Mons-Hainaut, Hong Kong Baptist University ( HKBU ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), University of British Columbia ( UBC ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD [Nouvelle-Calédonie] ), CSIRO Marine and Atmospheric Research ( CSIRO-MAR ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] ( CSIRO ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Marine Ecosystems Modeling and Monitoring by Satellites ( MEMMS ), Environnement et Grandes Cultures ( EGC ), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Instituto del Mar del Peru ( IMARPE ), Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung ( PIK ), UMR 212 EME 'écosystèmes marins exploités' ( EME ), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement ( IRD ) -Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer ( IFREMER ) -Université de Montpellier ( UM ), and Chimie des Interactions Plasma-Surface (ChIPS) ( ChIPS )
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography
Abstract: International audience; Model intercomparison studies in the climate and Earth sciences communities have been crucial to building credibility and coherence for future projections. They have quantified variability among models, spurred model development , contrasted within-and among-model uncertainty, assessed model fits to historical data, and provided ensemble projections of future change under specified scenarios. Given the speed and magnitude of anthropogenic change in the marine environment and the consequent effects on food security, biodiversity, marine industries, and society, the time is ripe for similar comparisons among models of fisheries and marine ecosystems. Here, we describe the Fisheries and Marine Ecosystem Model Intercomparison Project protocol version 1.0 (Fish-MIP v1.0), part of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP), which is a cross-sectoral network of climate impact modellers. Given the complexity of the marine ecosystem, this class of models has substantial heterogeneity of purpose, scope, theoretical underpinning , processes considered, parameterizations, resolution (grain size), and spatial extent. This heterogeneity reflects the lack of a unified understanding of the marine ecosystem and implies that the assemblage of all models is more likely to include a greater number of relevant processes than any single model. The current Fish-MIP protocol is designed to allow these heterogeneous models to be forced with common Earth System Model (ESM) Coupled Model Intercompari-son Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) outputs under prescribed scenarios for historic (from the 1950s) and future (to 2100) time periods; it will be adapted to CMIP phase 6 (CMIP6) in future iterations. It also describes a standardized set of outputs for each participating Fish-MIP model to produce. This enables the broad characterization of differences between and uncertainties within models and projections when assessing climate and fisheries impacts on marine ecosystems and the services they provide. The systematic generation, collation, and comparison of results from Fish-MIP will inform an understanding of the range of plausible changes in marine ecosystems and improve our capacity to define and convey the strengths and weaknesses of model-based advice on future states of marine ecosystems and fisheries. Ultimately, Fish-MIP represents a step towards bringing together the marine ecosystem modelling community to produce consistent ensemble medium-and long-term projections of marine ecosystems.
Published: 2018
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5. C-MIP: An international model inter-comparison simulating organic carbon dynamics in bare fallow soils

Author: Farina, Roberta, Ehrhardt, Fiona, Bellocchi, Gianni, Chenu, Claire, Soussana, Jean-François, Abdalla, Mohamed, Álvaro-Fuentes, Jorge, Blauer, Mira, Brilli, Lorenzo, Chakrabarti, Bidisha, CLIVOT, Hugues, De Antoni, Max, di bene, claudia, Dorich, Cristopher, Ferchaud, Fabien, Nuala, Fitton, Francaviglia, Rosa, Franko, Uwe, Grant, Brian B, Guenet, Bertrand, Harrison, Matthew T., Kirschbaum, Miko U.F., Kuka, Katrin, Lehtonen, Aleksi, Martin, Raphaël, Meier, Elizabeth Anne, Menichetti, Lorenzo, Mula, Laura, Nendel, Claas, Rolinski, Susanne, Sharp, Joanna, Shepherd, Anita, Smith, Ward, Snow, Val, Taghizadeh-Toosi, Arezoo, Tsutskikh, Elena, Zhang, Qing, Recous, Sylvie, Research Centre for the Soil-Plant System, Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’Analisi dell’Economia Agraria (CREA), Collège de Direction, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR (UREP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS), Institute of Biological and Environmental Sciences, (SFIRC), Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Université Paris-Saclay, Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas, Istituto di Biometeorologia [Firenze] (IBIMET), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche (CNR), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), UR 1158 AgroImpact Agroressources et Impacts environnementaux, Queensland University of Technology, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Agriculture Canada, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, Landcare Research, Julius Kühn-Institut (JKI), Natural Resources Institute Finland, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences (SLU), Dipartimento di Agraria e Nucleo Ricerca Desertificazione, Università degli Studi di Sassari, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), The New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research, Rothamsted Research, Agriculture and Agri-Food [Ottawa] (AAFC), AgResearch Ltd, Aarhus University, Institute of Atmospheric Physics [Beijing] (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Fractionnement des AgroRessources et Environnement - UMR-A 614 (FARE), Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-SFR Condorcet, Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-Université de Picardie Jules Verne (UPJV)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-Université de Picardie Jules Verne (UPJV)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’Analisi dell’Economia Agraria ( CREA ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Unité de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial, ( SFIRC ), Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes ( ECOSYS ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, Istituto di Biometeorologia [Firenze] ( IBIMET ), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche ( CNR ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Colorado State University, Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research ( UFZ ), LSCE, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Julius Kühn-Institut ( JKI ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Swedish University of Agricultural Sciences ( SLU ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada ( AAFC ), Institute of Atmospheric Physics [Beijing] ( IAP ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Fractionnement des AgroRessources et Environnement - UMR-A 614 ( FARE ), Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne ( URCA ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -SFR Condorcet, and Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne ( URCA ) -Université de Picardie Jules Verne ( UPJV ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne ( URCA ) -Université de Picardie Jules Verne ( UPJV ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS )
Subjects: [ SDV ] Life Sciences [q-bio], [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]
Abstract: C-MIP: An international model inter-comparison simulating organic carbon dynamics in bare fallow soils. 6th International Symposium on Soil Organic Matter
Published: 2017

6. The uncertainty of crop yield projections is reduced by improved temperature response functions

Author: Alex C. Ruane, Peter J. Thorburn, Mikhail A. Semenov, Joost Wolf, Claudio O. Stöckle, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Gerard W. Wall, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Matthew P. Reynolds, Eckart Priesack, Jørgen E. Olesen, Enli Wang, Bruce A. Kimball, Jordi Doltra, Iurii Shcherbak, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Jeffrey W. White, Leilei Liu, L. A. Hunt, Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Yan Zhu, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Daniel Wallach, Christian Biernath, Davide Cammarano, Mohamed Jabloun, Zhigan Zhao, Michael J. Ottman, Pierre Martre, Sebastian Gayler, Garry O'Leary, Zhimin Wang, Jakarat Anothai, Elias Fereres, Claas Nendel, Bruno Basso, Thilo Streck, Curtis D. Jones, Andrea Maiorano, Phillip D. Alderman, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Taru Palosuo, Iwan Supit, Katharina Waha, Giacomo De Sanctis, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Soora Naresh Kumar, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Dominique Ripoche, Pierre Stratonovitch, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation (Australia), Chinese Academy of Sciences, China Scholarship Council, Ministry of Education of the People's Republic of China, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (France), European Commission, International Food Policy Research Institute (US), CGIAR (France), Department of Agriculture (US), Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany), Deutsche Gesellschaft für Internationale Zusammenarbeit, Danish Council for Strategic Research, Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (Germany), Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry, National Natural Science Foundation of China, Helmholtz Association, Grains Research and Development Corporation (Australia), Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University, National Institute of Food and Agriculture (US), CSIRO, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), College of Agronomy and Biotechnology, Southwest University, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Division of Plant Nutrition-University of Bonn, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Department of Crop Sciences, University of Goettingen, Centre of Biodiversity and Sustainable Land Use (CBL), United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service, The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Global Wheat Program, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Washington State University (WSU), Department of Earth and Environmental Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology (BIOP), German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, Purdue University [West Lafayette], Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, GMO Unit, European Food Safety Authority = Autorité européenne de sécurité des aliments, Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Dep. Agronomia, University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Spanish National Research Council (CSIC), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricutural University, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Department of Economic Development, Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources (DEDJTR), Natural Resources Institute Finland, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, PPS and WSG &CALM, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Agriculture and Food, Universidad de La Rioja (UR), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, China Agricultural University, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), China Agricultural University (CAU), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn], Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Leeds, European Food Safety Authority (EFSA), Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), Consejo Superior de Investigaciones Científicas [Madrid] (CSIC), AgWeatherNet Program, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Landscape and Water Sciences, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences (CAAS), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, European Project: 267196,EC:FP7:PEOPLE,FP7-PEOPLE-2010-COFUND,AGREENSKILLS(2012), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux ( LEPSE ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center ( CIMMYT ), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security ( CCAFS ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Michigan State University, Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology ( BIOP ), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, European Food Safety Authority, Spanish National Research Council ( CSIC ), Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources ( DEDJTR ), University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), University of Wisconsin-Madison [Madison], Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Universidad de La Rioja ( UR ), University of Bonn-Division of Plant Nutrition, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR]-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR], Natural resources institute Finland, Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Universidad de Córdoba = University of Córdoba [Córdoba], Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)
Subjects: Crops, Agricultural, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Yield (finance), Water en Voedsel, Growing season, Climate change, klim, Plant Science, Agricultural engineering, Models, Biological, 01 natural sciences, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, Crop, Life Science, Computer Simulation, Productivity, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, WIMEK, Water and Food, Food security, business.industry, Crop yield, Temperature, Agriculture, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Climate Resilience, Agronomy, Klimaatbestendigheid, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Water Systems and Global Change, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business
Abstract: Increasing the accuracy of crop productivity estimates is a key element in planning adaptation strategies to ensure global food security under climate change. Process-based crop models are effective means to project climate impact on crop yield, but have large uncertainty in yield simulations. Here, we show that variations in the mathematical functions currently used to simulate temperature responses of physiological processes in 29 wheat models account for >50% of uncertainty in simulated grain yields for mean growing season temperatures from 14 °C to 33 °C. We derived a set of new temperature response functions that when substituted in four wheat models reduced the error in grain yield simulations across seven global sites with different temperature regimes by 19% to 50% (42% average). We anticipate the improved temperature responses to be a key step to improve modelling of crops under rising temperature and climate change, leading to higher skill of crop yield projections., E.W. acknowledges support from the CSIRO project ‘Enhanced modelling of genotype by environment interactions’ and the project ‘Advancing crop yield while reducing the use of water and nitrogen’ jointly funded by CSIRO and the Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS). Z.Z. received a scholarship from the China Scholarship Council through the CSIRO and the Chinese Ministry of Education PhD Research Program. P.M., A.M. and D.R. acknowledge support from the FACCE JPI MACSUR project (031A103B) through the metaprogram Adaptation of Agriculture and Forests to Climate Change (AAFCC) of the French National Institute for Agricultural Research (INRA). A.M. received the support of the EU in the framework of the Marie-Curie FP7 COFUND People Programme, through the award of an AgreenSkills fellowship under grant agreement No. PCOFUND-GA-2010-267196. S.A. and D.C. acknowledge support provided by the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat and the Wheat Initiative. C.S. was funded through USDA National Institute for Food and Agriculture award 32011-68002-30191. C.M. received financial support from the KULUNDA project (01LL0905 L) and the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF). F.E. received support from the FACCE MACSUR project (031A103B) funded through the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (2812ERA115) and E.E.R. was funded through the German Federal Ministry of Economic Cooperation and Development (Project: PARI). M.J. and J.E.O. were funded through the FACCE MACSUR project by the Danish Strategic Research Council. K.C.K. and C.N. were funded by the FACCE MACSUR project through the German Federal Ministry of Food and Agriculture (BMEL). F.T., T.P. and R.P.R. received financial support from the FACCE MACSUR project funded through the Finnish Ministry of Agriculture and Forestry (MMM); F.T. was also funded through the National Natural Science Foundation of China (No. 41071030). C.B. was funded through the Helmholtz project ‘REKLIM-Regional Climate Change: Causes and Effects’ Topic 9: ‘Climate Change and Air Quality’. M.P.R. and PD.A. received funding from the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture, and Food Security (CCAFS). G.O'L. was funded through the Australian Grains Research and Development Corporation and the Department of Economic Development, Jobs, Transport and Resources Victoria, Australia. R.C.I. was funded by Texas AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University. B.B. was funded by USDA-NIFA Grant No: 2015-68007-23133.
Published: 2017
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7. A resilience sensing system for the biosphere

Author: Timothy M. Lenton, Joshua E. Buxton, David I. Armstrong McKay, Jesse F. Abrams, Chris A. Boulton, Kirsten Lees, Thomas W. R. Powell, Niklas Boers, Andrew M. Cunliffe, Vasilis Dakos, University of Exeter, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), and Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)
Subjects: [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, biosphere, remote sensing, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Resilience, recovery rate, Climate Change, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, General Agricultural and Biological Sciences, ecosystems, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Ecosystem
Abstract: We are in a climate and ecological emergency, where climate change and direct anthropogenic interference with the biosphere are risking abrupt and/or irreversible changes that threaten our life-support systems. Efforts are underway to increase the resilience of some ecosystems that are under threat, yet collective awareness and action are modest at best. Here, we highlight the potential for a biosphere resilience sensing system to make it easier to see where things are going wrong, and to see whether deliberate efforts to make things better are working. We focus on global resilience sensing of the terrestrial biosphere at high spatial and temporal resolution through satellite remote sensing, utilizing the generic mathematical behaviour of complex systems—loss of resilience corresponds to slower recovery from perturbations, gain of resilience equates to faster recovery. We consider what subset of biosphere resilience remote sensing can monitor, critically reviewing existing studies. Then we present illustrative, global results for vegetation resilience and trends in resilience over the last 20 years, from both satellite data and model simulations. We close by discussing how resilience sensing nested across global, biome-ecoregion, and local ecosystem scales could aid management and governance at these different scales, and identify priorities for further work. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Ecological complexity and the biosphere: the next 30 years’.
Published: 2023
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8. A multi-model assessment of C cycling and soil C sequestration in grasslands and croplands

Author: Renata Sandor, Fiona Ehrhardt, Bruno Basso, Gianni Bellocchi, Arti Bhatia, Lorenzo Brilli, Massimiliano de Antoni Migliorati, Jordi Doltra, Chris Dorich, Luca Doro, Nuala Fitton, Sandro José Giacomini, Peter Grace, Brian Grant, Harrison, Matthew T., Jones, Stephanie K., Kirschbaum, Miko U. F., Katja Klumpp, Patricia Laville, Joël Léonard, Mark Liebig, Mark Lieffering, Raphaël Martin, Russel Mcauliffe, Elizabeth Meier, Lutz Merbold, Moore, Andrew D., Vasileios Myrgiotis, Paul Newton, Elizabeth Pattey, Sylvie Recous, Susanne Rolinski, Joanna Sharp, Raia Silvia Massad, Pete Smith, Ward Smith, Val Snow, Lianhai Wu, Wen Zhang, Jean-François Soussana, Unité Mixte de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial - UMR (UREP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS), Collège de Direction, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System, Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), University of Florence (UNIFI), Queensland University of Technology, Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), University of Sassari, University of Aberdeen, Federal University of Santa Maria, Agriculture and Agri-Food [Ottawa] (AAFC), Tasmanian Institute of Agriculture, Scotland's Rural College (SCUR), Landcare Research, Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Unité d'Agronomie de Laon-Reims-Mons (AGRO-LRM), United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service, AgResearch Ltd, CSIRO, International Livestock Research Institute, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), AgResearch Grasslands, Agricuture and Agri-Food Canada, Fractionnement des AgroRessources et Environnement - UMR-A 614 (FARE), Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-SFR Condorcet, Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-Université de Picardie Jules Verne (UPJV)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-Université de Picardie Jules Verne (UPJV)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Rothamsted Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), CN-MIP, Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-SFR Condorcet, Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-Université de Picardie Jules Verne (UPJV)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-Université de Picardie Jules Verne (UPJV)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Unité de Recherche sur l'Ecosystème Prairial, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Michigan State University, Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), University of Florence, Colorado State University, Agriculture and Agri-Food Canada ( AAFC ), Scotland's Rural College, Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes ( ECOSYS ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, Unité d'Agronomie de Laon-Reims-Mons ( AGRO-LRM ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Fractionnement des AgroRessources et Environnement - UMR-A 614 ( FARE ), Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne ( URCA ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -SFR Condorcet, Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne ( URCA ) -Université de Picardie Jules Verne ( UPJV ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne ( URCA ) -Université de Picardie Jules Verne ( UPJV ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Chinese Academy of Sciences ( CAS ), Collège de Direction (CODIR), Università degli Studi di Firenze = University of Florence [Firenze] (UNIFI), Scotland's Rural College (SRUC), Manaaki Whenua – Landcare Research [Lincoln], Agroressources et Impacts environnementaux (AgroImpact), USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, Fractionnement des AgroRessources et Environnement (FARE), Université de Reims Champagne-Ardenne (URCA)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), and Plant & Food Research
Subjects: modelling, field crop, [ SDV ] Life Sciences [q-bio], grandes cultures et prairies, carbon, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], prairie, grande culture, carbone, grassland, modélisation
Abstract: A multi-model assessment of C cycling and soil C sequestration in grasslands and croplands. 6th International Symposium on Soil Organic Matter ; Harpenden (Royaume Uni)
Published: 2017

9. Similar estimates of temperature impacts on global wheat yield by three independent methods

Author: Frank Ewert, Jakarat Anothai, P. V. Vara Prasad, Davide Cammarano, Curtis D. Jones, Elias Fereres, Margarita Garcia-Vila, Soora Naresh Kumar, Eckart Priesack, Phillip D. Alderman, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Alex C. Ruane, Christian Folberth, Gerrit Hoogenboom, Pierre Martre, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Fulu Tao, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Mohamed Jabloun, Jordi Doltra, Joshua Elliott, Christoph Müller, Bing Liu, Iurii Shcherbak, Jeffrey W. White, Bruno Basso, Senthold Asseng, Pierre Stratonovitch, Peter J. Thorburn, Claas Nendel, Taru Palosuo, Joost Wolf, Ann-Kristin Koehler, Thilo Streck, Jørgen E. Olesen, David B. Lobell, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Delphine Deryng, L. A. Hunt, Garry O'Leary, Katharina Waha, Giacomo De Sanctis, Daniel Wallach, Yan Zhu, James W. Jones, Elke Stehfest, Mikhail A. Semenov, Christian Biernath, Claudio O. Stöckle, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Matthew P. Reynolds, Enli Wang, Bruce A. Kimball, Erwin Schmid, Iwan Supit, Zhigan Zhao, Michael J. Ottman, Sebastian Gayler, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Ehsan Eyshi Rezaei, Gerard W. Wall, National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Key Laboratory for Information Agriculture, Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center for Modern Crop Production, Nanjing Agricutural University, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF), Leibniz Association, Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Computation Institute, Loyola University of Chicago, Department of Environmental Earth System Science and Center on Food Security and the Environment, Stanford University, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, Borlaug Institute for South Asia, CIMMYT, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research (CGIAR), Department of Plant and Soil Sciences, Mississippi State University [Mississippi], Department of Plant Science, Faculty of Natural Resources, Prince of Songkla University (PSU), Department of Geological Sciences, University of Oregon [Eugene], W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Institute of Soil Ecology [Neuherberg] (IBOE), Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), The James Hutton Institute, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Department of Agronomy, Purdue University [West Lafayette], Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Ecosystem Services and Management Program, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, AgWeatherNet Program, Washington State University (WSU), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Texas A and M AgriLife Research, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], US Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Landscape & Water Sciences, Department of Environment of Victoria, The School of Plant Sciences, University of Arizona, Natural resources institute Finland, Institute of Ecology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung (IMK-IFU), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie (KIT), School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Birmingham], University of Birmingham [Birmingham], Birmingham Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Center for Development Research (ZEF), Environmental Impacts Group, Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Universität für Bodenkultur Wien [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, Department of Biological Systems Engineering, University of Wisconsin-Madison, PPS, WSG and CALM, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), USDA-ARS, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, China Agricultural University (CAU), National High-Tech Research and Development Program of China (2013AA100404), the National Natural Science Foundation of China (31271616, 31611130182, 41571088 and 31561143003), the National Research Foundation for the Doctoral Program of Higher Education of China (20120097110042), the Priority Academic Program Development of Jiangsu Higher Education Institutions (PAPD), China Scholarship Council., IFPRI through the Global Futures and Strategic Foresight project, the CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), the CGIAR Research Program on Wheat, the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP), Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, University of Bonn-Division of Plant Nutrition, Stanford University [Stanford], Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Prince of Songkla University, Texas A&M AgriLife Research and Extension Center, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), China Agricultural University, Division of Plant Nutrition-University of Bonn, Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), University of Florida, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Institute for Landscape Biogeochemistry, Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] ( CCSR ), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux ( LEPSE ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research ( CGIAR ), W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Institute of Soil Ecology [Neuherberg] ( IBOE ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), James Hutton Institute, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis ( IIASA ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung - Atmosphärische Umweltforschung ( IMK-IFU ), Karlsruher Institut für Technologie ( KIT ), School of Geography, Earth & Environmental Science and Birmingham Institute of Forest Research, University of Birmingham, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center ( CIMMYT ), Bonn Universität [Bonn], University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences, University of Wisconsin-Madison [Madison], Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, [ SDV.BV ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, régression statistique, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, impact sur le rendement, klim, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, incertitude, wheat, uncertainty, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, Regression analysis, statistical regression, simulation, PE&RC, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, sécurité alimentaire, Plant Production Systems, modèle de récolte, Yield (finance), comparaison de modèles, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Climate change, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Earth System Science, blé, température, Life Science, [SDV.BV]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology, réchauffement climatique, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Hydrology, WIMEK, Global temperature, business.industry, Crop yield, Global warming, Climate Resilience, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Klimaatbestendigheid, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Environmental science, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde, Climate model, business, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security. The potential impact of global temperature change on global crop yield has recently been assessed with different methods. Here we show that grid-based and point-based simulations and statistical regressions (from historic records), without deliberate adaptation or CO2 fertilization effects, produce similar estimates of temperature impact on wheat yields at global and national scales. With a 1 °C global temperature increase, global wheat yield is projected to decline between 4.1% and 6.4%. Projected relative temperature impacts from different methods were similar for major wheat-producing countries China, India, USA and France, but less so for Russia. Point-based and grid-based simulations, and to some extent the statistical regressions, were consistent in projecting that warmer regions are likely to suffer more yield loss with increasing temperature than cooler regions. By forming a multi-method ensemble, it was possible to quantify ‘method uncertainty’ in addition to model uncertainty. This significantly improves confidence in estimates of climate impacts on global food security.
Published: 2016
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10. Multi-wheat-model ensemble responses to interannual climate variability

Author: Carlos Angulo, Frank Ewert, Tom M. Osborne, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Senthold Asseng, Pasquale Steduto, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Eckart Priesack, Patrick Bertuzzi, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Dominique Ripoche, Thilo Streck, Joost Wolf, Pierre Stratonovitch, Alex C. Ruane, Richard Goldberg, Robert F. Grant, Taru Palosuo, Iurii Shcherbak, Kenneth J. Boote, Christian Biernath, Garry O'Leary, J. Hooker, Peter J. Thorburn, Joachim Ingwersen, Soora Naresh Kumar, Lee Heng, Maria I. Travasso, Pierre Martre, Katharina Waha, Nicholas I. Hudson, Claas Nendel, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Andrew J. Challinor, Jørgen E. Olesen, Reimund P. Rötter, Davide Camarrano, L. A. Hunt, Sebastian Gayler, Nadine Brisson, Daniel Wallach, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Iwan Supit, Jordi Doltra, Jeffrey W. White, Bruno Basso, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], The James Hutton Institute, Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung (ZALF), Leibniz Association, Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux (LEPSE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Water Management Institute, International Water Management Institute, Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Biochemical Plant Pathology, German Research Center for Environmental Health - Helmholtz Center München (GmbH), Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Landscape & Water Sciences, Department of Environment of Victoria, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University, National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, Environmental Impacts Group, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council, Institute for Future Environments, Queensland University of Technology, Food and Agriculture Organization, Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Earth System Science-Climate Change and Adaptive Land-use and Water Management, Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), Institute for Climate and Water [Castelnar], Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, USDA-ARS, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Plant Production Systems, Modelling European Agriculture with Climate Change for Food Security (MACSUR), JPI FACCE, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn], Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Aarhus University [Aarhus], Natural resources institute Finland, Georg-August-University [Göttingen], Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Georg-August-University = Georg-August-Universität Göttingen, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), USDA Agricultural Research Service [Maricopa, AZ] (USDA), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] ( CCSR ), University of Florida, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Écophysiologie des Plantes sous Stress environnementaux ( LEPSE ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Department of Geological Sciences and Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science, School of Earth and Environment, University of Leeds, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), University of Maryland, Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] ( CAS ), Institute for Climate and Water, and Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Temperature sensitivity, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Precipitation, 01 natural sciences, modèle de croissance, wheat, uncertainty, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, climate impacts, 2. Zero hunger, Multi-model ensemble, changement climatique, Ecological Modeling, Temperature, Uncertainty, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, PE&RC, Plant Production Systems, Climatology, PRECIPITATION, Climate impacts, Environmental Engineering, interannual variability, Yield (finance), australie, variation interannuelle, Growing season, Climate change, multi-model ensemble, Earth System Science, Interannual variability, blé, température, pays bas, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, WIMEK, précipitation, business.industry, argentine, Simulation modeling, temperature, Global change, 15. Life on land, inde, Climate Resilience, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Klimaatbestendigheid, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, AgMIP, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde, Crop modeling, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business, Software
Abstract: We compare 27 wheat models' yield responses to interannual climate variability, analyzed at locations in Argentina, Australia, India, and The Netherlands as part of the Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP) Wheat Pilot. Each model simulated 1981-2010 grain yield, and we evaluate results against the interannual variability of growing season temperature, precipitation, and solar radiation. The amount of information used for calibration has only a minor effect on most models' climate response, and even small multi-model ensembles prove beneficial. Wheat model clusters reveal common characteristics of yield response to climate; however models rarely share the same cluster at all four sites indicating substantial independence. Only a weak relationship (R2???0.24) was found between the models' sensitivities to interannual temperature variability and their response to long-term warming, suggesting that additional processes differentiate climate change impacts from observed climate variability analogs and motivating continuing analysis and model development efforts. Compares interannual climate response of 27 wheat models at four locations.Calculates the diminishing return of constructing multi-model ensembles for assessment.Identifies similarities and major differences of model responses.Differentiates between interannual temperature sensitivity and climate change response.
Published: 2016
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11. Mediterranean irrigation under climate change: more efficient irrigation needed to compensate for increases in irrigation water requirements

Author: Fader, Marianela, Shi, Sinan, von Bloh, Werner, Bondeau, Alberte, Cramer, Wolfgang, Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale ( IMBE ), Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse ( UAPV ) -Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ) -Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU)
Subjects: lcsh:GE1-350, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, lcsh:G, lcsh:T, lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, lcsh:Technology, lcsh:TD1-1066, lcsh:Environmental sciences
Abstract: Irrigation in the Mediterranean is of vital importance for food security, employment and economic development. This study systematically assesses how climate change and increases in atmospheric CO2 concentrations may affect irrigation requirements in the Mediterranean region by 2080–2090. Future demographic change and technological improvements in irrigation systems are taken into account, as is the spread of climate forcing, warming levels and potential realization of the CO2-fertilization effect. Vegetation growth, phenology, agricultural production and irrigation water requirements and withdrawal were simulated with the process-based ecohydrological and agro-ecosystem model LPJmL (Lund–Potsdam–Jena managed Land) after an extensive development that comprised the improved representation of Mediterranean crops. At present the Mediterranean region could save 35 % of water by implementing more efficient irrigation and conveyance systems. Some countries such as Syria, Egypt and Turkey have a higher savings potential than others. Currently some crops, especially sugar cane and agricultural trees, consume on average more irrigation water per hectare than annual crops. Different crops show different magnitudes of changes in net irrigation requirements due to climate change, the increases being most pronounced in agricultural trees. The Mediterranean area as a whole may face an increase in gross irrigation requirements between 4 and 18 % from climate change alone if irrigation systems and conveyance are not improved (4 and 18 % with 2 °C global warming combined with the full CO2-fertilization effect and 5 °C global warming combined with no CO2-fertilization effect, respectively). Population growth increases these numbers to 22 and 74 %, respectively, affecting mainly the southern and eastern Mediterranean. However, improved irrigation technologies and conveyance systems have a large water saving potential, especially in the eastern Mediterranean, and may be able to compensate to some degree for the increases due to climate change and population growth. Both subregions would need around 35 % more water than today if they implement some degree of modernization of irrigation and conveyance systems and benefit from the CO2-fertilization effect. Nevertheless, water scarcity may pose further challenges to the agricultural sector: Algeria, Libya, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, Syria, Serbia, Morocco, Tunisia and Spain have a high risk of not being able to sustainably meet future irrigation water requirements in some scenarios. The results presented in this study point to the necessity of performing further research on climate-friendly agro-ecosystems in order to assess, on the one hand, their degree of resilience to climate shocks and, on the other hand, their adaptation potential when confronted with higher temperatures and changes in water availability.
Published: 2016
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12. Biophysical and economic limits to negative CO2 emissions

Author: Josep G. Canadell, J. Milne, Pete Smith, Robbie M. Andrew, Mathis Rogner, José Roberto Moreira, David L. McCollum, Elmar Kriegler, Cho Yongsung, Volker Krey, Wolfgang K. Heidug, Ayyoob Sharifi, Florian Kraxner, Edward S. Rubin, Robert B. Jackson, Annette Cowie, Philippe Ciais, Jae Edmonds, Asbjørn Torvanger, Steven J. Davis, Nebojsa Nakicenovic, Felix Creutzig, Jan C. Minx, Gyami Shrestha, Matthias Jonas, Michael Obersteiner, Detlef P. van Vuuren, Thomas Gasser, J. Lowe, Etsushi Kato, Yoshiki Yamagata, Arnulf Grubler, Sabine Fuss, Anand Patwardhan, Benoit Gabrielle, Glen P. Peters, Joeri Rogelj, Emma Littleton, Chris D. Jones, Pierre Friedlingstein, University of Aberdeen, University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Technische Universität Berlin (TU), Hertie School of Governance, Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes (ECOSYS), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, The Institute of Applied Energy (IAE), Department of Earth System Science [Stanford] (ESS), Stanford EARTH, Stanford University-Stanford University, University of New England (UNE), Utrecht University [Utrecht], PBL Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Stanford University, Oceans and Atmosphere Research, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), US Global Change Research Program, University of Exeter, centre international de recherche sur l'environnement et le développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), King Abdullah Petroleum Studies and Research Center, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), University of São Paulo (USP), University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Carnegie Mellon University [Pittsburgh] (CMU), Global Carbon Project — Tsukuba International Office, National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Joint Global Change Research Institute, Korea University [Seoul], Technische Universität Berlin (TUB), Department of Environmental Earth System Science [Stanford] (EESS), Stanford University [Stanford], Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech, Met Office Hadley Centre (MOHC), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC), Technical University of Berlin / Technische Universität Berlin (TU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Universidade de São Paulo = University of São Paulo (USP), University of California [Irvine] ( UCI ), Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change, Technical University of Berlin, Technical University Berlin, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Ecologie fonctionnelle et écotoxicologie des agroécosystèmes ( ECOSYS ), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Department of Environmental Earth System Science [Stanford] ( EESS ), University of New England ( UNE ), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] ( IIASA ), Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich ( ETH Zürich ), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Center for International Climate and Environmental Research [Oslo] ( CICERO ), Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement ( CIRED ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -École des Ponts ParisTech ( ENPC ) -AgroParisTech-École des hautes études en sciences sociales ( EHESS ) -Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ), Met Office Hadley Centre ( MOHC ), University of East Anglia [Norwich] ( UEA ), University of São Paulo ( USP ), Carnegie Mellon University [Pittsburgh] ( CMU ), National Institute for Environmental Studies ( NIES ), and Environmental Sciences
Subjects: Hydrology, Resource (biology), [ SDV ] Life Sciences [q-bio], Natural resource economics, business.industry, 020209 energy, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Global change, 02 engineering and technology, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 7. Clean energy, Carbon cycle, Renewable energy, Earth system science, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Economic cost, Taverne, 11. Sustainability, Sustainability, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Environmental science, business, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: To have a >50% chance of limiting warming below 2 degrees C, most recent scenarios from integrated assessment models (IAMs) require large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs). These are technologies that result in the net removal of greenhouse gases from the atmosphere. We quantify potential global impacts of the different NETs on various factors (such as land, greenhouse gas emissions, water, albedo, nutrients and energy) to determine the biophysical limits to, and economic costs of, their wiespread application. Resource implications vary between technologies and need to be satisfactorily addressed if NETs are to have a significant role in achieving climate goals.
Published: 2016
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13. Fire evolution in the radioactive forests of Ukraine and Belarus: future risks for the population and the environment

Author: Patricia Cadule, Sergiy Zibtsev, Nikolaos Evangeliou, Anders Pape Møller, Benjamin Poulter, Florent Mouillot, Wei Min Hao, Alexander Petkov, Ronan Paugam, Brigitte Koffi, Timothy A. Mousseau, Anne Cozic, Yves Balkanski, Kirsten Thonicke, Rong Wang, Chao Yue, Johannes W. Kaiser, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Climat et fonctionnement des agro-écosystèmes, rôle de l'agrodiversité dans la stabilité de la production (CLIFA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Montana State University (MSU), Air and Climate Unit [Ispra], JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC)-European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Laboratoire de Modélisation et Simulation Multi Echelle (MSME), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée (UPEM), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Calcul Scientifique (CALCULS), USDA Forest Service Rocky Mountain Forest and Range Experiment Station, United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), King‘s College London, National University of Life and Environmental Sciences of Ukraine (NUBiP), University of South Carolina [Columbia], Modélisation INVerse pour les mesures atmosphériques et SATellitaires (SATINV), European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), Max-Planck-Institut für Biophysikalische Chemie - Max Planck Institute for Biophysical Chemistry [Göttingen], Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Ecologie Systématique et Evolution (ESE), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] ( LSCE ), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines ( UVSQ ) -Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives ( CEA ) -Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Climat et fonctionnement des agro-écosystèmes, rôle de l'agrodiversité dans la stabilité de la production ( CLIFA ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Montana State University ( MSU ), JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability ( IES ), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ) -European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), Laboratoire de Modélisation et Simulation Multi Echelle ( MSME ), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 ( UPEC UP12 ) -Université Paris-Est Marne-la-Vallée ( UPEM ), and Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE)
Subjects: [ SDU.OCEAN ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Cesium-137, Population, Climate change, Firefighting, Chernobyl, redistribution, Altitude, litter, Environmental protection, [ SDU.ENVI ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, education, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Radionuclide, education.field_of_study, Fire regime, Ecology, carbon stock, 15. Life on land, climate change, 13. Climate action, Litter, wildfires, Environmental science, fire risk, Woody plant
Abstract: International audience; In this paper, we analyze the current and future status of forests in Ukraine and Belarus that were contaminated after the nuclear disaster in 1986. Using several models, together with remote‐sensing data and observations, we studied how climate change in these forests may affect fire regimes. We investigated the possibility of 137Cs displacement over Europe by studying previous fire events, and examined three fire scenarios that depended on different emission altitudes of 137Cs, assuming that 10% of the forests were affected by fires. Field measurements and modeling simulations confirmed that numerous radioactive contaminants are still present at these sites in extremely large quantities.Forests in Eastern Europe are characterized by large, highly fire‐prone patches that are conducive to the development of extreme crown fires. Since 1986, there has been a positive correlation between extreme fire events and drought in the two contaminated regions. Litter carbon storage in the area has doubled since 1986 due to increased tree mortality and decreased decomposition rates; dead trees and accumulating litter in turn can provide fuel for wildfires that pose a high risk of redistributing radioactivity in future years. Intense fires in 2002, 2008, and 2010 resulted in the displacement of 137Cs to the south; the cumulative amount of 137Cs re‐deposited over Europe was equivalent to 8% of that deposited following the initial Chernobyl disaster. However, a large amount of 137Cs still remains in these forests, which could be remobilized along with a large number of other dangerous, long‐lived, refractory radionuclides. We predict that an expanding flammable area associated with climate change will lead to a high risk of radioactive contamination with characteristic fire peaks in the future. Current fire‐fighting infrastructure in the region is inadequate due to understaffing and lack of funding. Our data yield the first cogent predictions for future fire incidents and provide scientific insights that could inform and spur evidence‐based policy decisions concerning highly contaminated regions around the world, such as those of Chernobyl.
Published: 2015
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14. Multimodel ensembles of wheat growth: many models are better than one

Author: Pierre Martre, Bruno Basso, James W. Jones, Jordi Doltra, Garry O'Leary, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Christian Biernath, Jeffrey W. White, Sebastian Gayler, R. Goldberg, Eckart Priesack, Robert F. Grant, Nadine Brisson, Patrick Bertuzzi, Thilo Streck, Daniel Wallach, Joachim Ingwersen, Davide Cammarano, J. Hooker, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Carlos Angulo, Soora Naresh Kumar, Claas Nendel, Jørgen E. Olesen, Lee Heng, Maria I. Travasso, Iurii Shcherbak, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Tom M. Osborne, L. A. Hunt, Alex C. Ruane, Frank Ewert, Kenneth J. Boote, Andrew J. Challinor, Reimund P. Rötter, Iwan Supit, Jerry L. Hatfield, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Senthold Asseng, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Pasquale Steduto, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Dominique Ripoche, Peter J. Thorburn, Pierre Stratonovitch, Joost Wolf, Katharina Waha, Taru Palosuo, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers (ARCHE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Agricultural & Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation, Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Plant Production Research, Agrifood Research Finland, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research, Research Program on ClimateChange, Agriculture and Food Security, International Water Management Institute, Department of Geological Sciences, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, W. K. Kellogg Biological Station (KBS), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Soil Ecology, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change,Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Water & Earth System Science Competence Cluster, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), School of Agriculture, Policy and Development, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Universität Stuttgart, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Department of Primary Industries, Landscape & Water Sciences, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], National Centre for Atmospheric Science, Department of Meteorology, Institute of Soil Ecology German Research Center for Environmental Health, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Washington State University (WSU), University of Hohenheim, Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), CIRN, Institute forClimate and Water, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, United States Department of Agriculture, Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse [ENSAT]-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn], Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers ( ARCHE ), Institut National Polytechnique [Toulouse] ( INP ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Kellogg Biological Station, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] ( SEE ), University of Alberta [Edmonton], International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse (ENSAT), Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, and Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)
Subjects: Calibration (statistics), Climate, Statistics, process-based model, grain, uncertainty, Triticum, General Environmental Science, Mathematics, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Ecology, Mathematical model, Estimator, PE&RC, simulation, ecophysiological model, Europe, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, model intercomparison, Plant Production Systems, Wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), climate-change, wheat (Triticum aestivum L.), Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, impact, Seasons, simulations, europe, ensemble modeling, Climate Change, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, australia, crop production, Environment, Models, Biological, Consistency (statistics), Approximation error, Environmental Chemistry, Alterra - Centrum Bodem, impacts, Hydrology, [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, WIMEK, Ensemble forecasting, Crop yield, Simulation modeling, Soil Science Centre, Australia, yield, calibration, Climate Resilience, 13. Climate action, Klimaatbestendigheid, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, biodiversity conservation, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, Environmental Sciences, billion
Abstract: Crop models of crop growth are increasingly used to quantify the impact of global changes due to climate or crop management. Therefore, accuracy of simulation results is a major concern. Studies with ensembles of crop models can give valuable information about model accuracy and uncertainty, but such studies are difficult to organize and have only recently begun. We report on the largest ensemble study to date, of 27 wheat models tested in four contrasting locations for their accuracy in simulating multiple crop growth and yield variables. The relative error averaged over models was 24-38% for the different end-of-season variables including grain yield (GY) and grain protein concentration (GPC). There was little relation between error of a model for GY or GPC and error for in-season variables. Thus, most models did not arrive at accurate simulations of GY and GPC by accurately simulating preceding growth dynamics. Ensemble simulations, taking either the mean (e-mean) or median (e-median) of simulated values, gave better estimates than any individual model when all variables were considered. Compared to individual models, e-median ranked first in simulating measured GY and third in GPC. The error of e-mean and e-median declined with an increasing number of ensemble members, with little decrease beyond 10 models. We conclude that multimodel ensembles can be used to create new estimators with improved accuracy and consistency in simulating growth dynamics. We argue that these results are applicable to other crop species, and hypothesize that they apply more generally to ecological system models.
Published: 2015
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15. Statistical analysis of large simulated yield datasets for studying climate change effects

Author: David Makowski, Senthold Asseng, Frank Ewert, Simona Bassu, Jean-Louis Durand, Pierre Martre, Myriam Adam, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Carlos Angulo, Christian Baron, Bruno Basso, Patrick Bertuzzi, Christian Biernath, Hendrik Boogaard, Kenneth J. Boote, Nadine Brisson, Davide Cammarano, Andrew J. Challinor, Sjakk J. G. Conijn, Marc Corbeels, Delphine Deryng, Giacomo De Sanctis, Jordi Doltra, Sebastian Gayler, Richard Goldberg, Patricio Grassini, Jerry L. Hatfield, Lee Heng, Steven Hoek, Josh Hooker, Tony L. A. Hunt, Joachim Ingwersen, Cesar Izaurralde, Raymond E. E. Jongschaap, James W. Jones, Armen R. Kemanian, Christian Kersebaum, Soo-Hyung Kim, Jon Lizaso, Christoph Müller, Naresh S. Kumar, Claas Nendel, Garry J. O'Leary, Jorgen E. Olesen, Tom M. Osborne, Taru Palosuo, Maria V. Pravia, Eckart Priesack, Dominique Ripoche, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Alexander C. Ruane, Fredirico Sau, Mickhail A. Semenov, Iurii Shcherbak, Pasquale Steduto, Claudio Stöckle, Pierre Stratonovitch, Thilo Streck, Iwan Supit, Fulu Tao, Edmar I. Teixeira, Peter Thorburn, Denis Timlin, Maria Travasso, Reimund Rötter, Katharina Waha, Daniel Wallach, Jeffrey W. White, Jimmy R. Williams, Joost Wolf, Agronomie, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security (CCAFS), Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System, Agroclim (AGROCLIM), German Research Center for Environmental Health, Centre for Geo-Information, University of Leeds, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] (CAS), University of East Anglia, Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center (CIFA), University of Tübingen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), University of Nebraska [Lincoln], University of Nebraska System, National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), University of Reading (UOR), University of Guelph, University of Hohenheim, Joint Global Change Research Institute, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria (INIA), Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), University of Washington, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Department of Environment and Primary Industries, Landscape and Water Sciences, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Agrifood Research Finland, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System, Rothamsted Research, FAO Sub-regional Office for Eastern Africa [Addis Ababa, Ethiopie] (FAO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Washington State University (WSU), Plant & Food Research, Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), USDA-ARS : Agricultural Research Service, Institute for Climate and Water, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Texas A&M University System, Hillel, D., Rosenzweig, C., Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, University of Florida, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères ( P3F ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Université Clermont Auvergne ( UCA ), Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont Ferrand 2) ( UBP ), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement, CGIAR Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security ( CCAFS ), Michigan State University, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Wageningen University and Research Center ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Changchun Branch] ( CAS ), Catabrian Agricultural Research and Training Center ( CIFA ), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), University of Nebraska Lincoln ( UNL ), International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ( UPM ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Aarhus University, PennState University [Pennsylvania] ( PSU ), Food and Agricultural Organization ( FAO ), Washington State University ( WSU ), New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, United States Department of Agriculture - Agricultural Research Service, UMR : AGroécologie, Innovations, TeRritoires, Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), University of Florida [Gainesville], Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales - Clermont Auvergne (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Clermont Auvergne (UCA), Université Blaise Pascal (Clermont Ferrand 2) (UBP), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Wageningen University and Research Center (WUR), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)
Subjects: analyse de données, [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Yield (finance), data analysis, Climate change, 01 natural sciences, Agro Water- en Biobased Economy, statistical analysis, Effects of global warming, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, Life Science, Alterra - Centrum Bodem, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, global change, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, changement climatique, WIMEK, Mathematical model, analyse statistique, Crop yield, Soil Science Centre, Global change, Statistical model, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, PE&RC, Climate resilience, Climate Resilience, Plant Production Systems, Klimaatbestendigheid, 13. Climate action, Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Climatology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science
Abstract: Many studies have been carried out during the last decade to study the effect of climate change on crop yields and other key crop characteristics. In these studies, one or several crop models were used to simulate crop growth and development for different climate scenarios that correspond to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentration, temperature, and rainfall changes (Semenov et al., 1996; Tubiello and Ewert, 2002; White et al., 2011). The Agricultural Model Intercomparison and Improvement Project (AgMIP; Rosenzweig et al., 2013) builds on these studies with the goal of using an ensemble of multiple crop models in order to assess effects of climate change scenarios for several crops in contrasting environments. These studies generate large datasets, including thousands of simulated crop yield data. They include series of yield values obtained by combining several crop models with different climate scenarios that are defined by several climatic variables (temperature, CO2, rainfall, etc.). Such datasets potentially provide useful information on the possible effects of different climate change scenarios on crop yields. However, it is sometimes difficult to analyze these datasets and to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexity; simulated yield data can differ among contrasting climate scenarios, sites, and crop models. Another issue is that it is not straightforward to extrapolate the results obtained for the scenarios to alternative climate change scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Additional dynamic crop model simulations for new climate change scenarios are an option but this approach is costly, especially when a large number of crop models are used to generate the simulated data, as in AgMIP. Statistical models have been used to analyze responses of measured yield data to climate variables in past studies (Lobell et al., 2011), but the use of a statistical model to analyze yields simulated by complex process-based crop models is a rather new idea. We demonstrate herewith that statistical methods can play an important role in analyzing simulated yield data sets obtained from the ensembles of process-based crop models. Formal statistical analysis is helpful to estimate the effects of different climatic variables on yield, and to describe the between-model variability of these effects.
Published: 2015
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16. A statistical analysis of three ensembles of crop model responses to temperature and CO2 concentration

Author: Joost Wolf, Xinyou Yin, Pierre Martre, Zhengtao Zhang, H. K. Soo, Manuel Marcaida, Nadine Brisson, Patrick Bertuzzi, Soo-Hyung Kim, Yan Zhu, Roberto C. Izaurralde, L. A. Hunt, Maria I. Travasso, Christian Baron, James W. Jones, R.E.E. Jongschaap, T. Palosuo, Daniel Wallach, Jerry L. Hatfield, Christian Biernath, G. De Sanctis, Senthold Asseng, H. Yoshida, Donald S. Gaydon, Edmar Teixeira, Davide Cammarano, Alex C. Ruane, C. Nendel, T. Hasegawa, Thilo Streck, Garry O'Leary, Upendra Singh, Frank Ewert, Delphine Deryng, R. Goldberg, Bas A. M. Bouman, Peter J. Thorburn, Tao Li, Roberto Confalonieri, Myriam Adam, Jes Olesen, Reimund P. Rötter, Tamon Fumoto, Patricio Grassini, Joachim Ingwersen, Robert F. Grant, Katharina Waha, James Williams, Fulu Tao, Eckart Priesack, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Liang Tang, Sebastian Gayler, Jordi Doltra, L. Heng, Christoph Müller, J.G. Conijn, Iwan Supit, S. Naresh Kumar, Iurii Shcherbak, Jeffrey W. White, Hendrik Boogaard, Kenneth J. Boote, David Makowski, Federico Sau, Jean-Louis Durand, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Marc Corbeels, Steven Hoek, Simone Bregaglio, Hiroshi Nakagawa, Philippe Oriol, Anthony Challinor, R. A. Kemanian, Carlos Angulo, Pasquale Steduto, Bruno Basso, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Dennis Timlin, J. Hooker, Samuel Buis, Maria Virginia Pravia, Françoise Ruget, Dominique Ripoche, Simona Bassu, Pierre Stratonovitch, Jon I. Lizaso, Balwinder Singh, Tom M. Osborne, Paul W. Wilkens, Agronomie, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation [Bonn] (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), International Rice Research Institute [Philippines] (IRRI), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), Int Rice Res Inst, Los Banos, Philippines, Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales (UMR AGAP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), International Water Management Institute, Research Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, CGIAR, Institute of Crops Science and Resource Conservation INRES, Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale (UMR TETIS), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-AgroParisTech-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Department of Geological Sciences [East Lansing], Agroclim (AGROCLIM), German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Soil Ecololgy, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Center for Geo-information, Alterra, Department of Agronomy, University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Cassandra Lab, University of Milan, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), The James Hutton Institute, CGIAR ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds, Plant Research International, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Embrapa Cerrados, Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (UPR AIDA), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, School of Environmental Science, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Cantabrian Agricultural Research and Training Centre, Tsukuba, National Institute of Agro-Environmental Sciences (NIAES), Agriculture Flagship, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), WESS Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Departement of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, Department of Agronomy and Horticulture, University of Nebraska [Lincoln], University of Nebraska System-University of Nebraska System, National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), Centre for Geo-Information, Agriculture Department, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Department of Geographical Sciences, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, AGroécologie, Innovations, teRritoires (AGIR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria (INIA), Institute of Landscape System Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), College of the Environment, School of Environmental and Forest Sciences, University of Washington, Department Produccion Vegetal, Fitotecnia, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), National Agriculture and Food Research Organization (NARO), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Department of Economic Development Jobs, Transport and Resources, Grains Innovation Park, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], Walker Institute, NCAS Climate, Natural Resources Institute Finland, Department of Plant Science, Pennsylvania State University (Penn State), Penn State System-Penn State System, German Research Center for Environmental Health, Institute of Soil Ecology, Department Biologia Vegetal, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Department of Geological Sciences and W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre [Inde] (CIMMYT), International Maize and Wheat Improvement Center (CIMMYT), Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR)-Consultative Group on International Agricultural Research [CGIAR] (CGIAR), International Fertilizer Development Center (IFDC), College of the Environment, School of Environmental and Forest Science, University of Washington [Seattle], FAO Sub-regional Office for Eastern Africa [Addis Ababa, Ethiopie] (FAO), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science, National Engineering and Technology Center for Information Agriculture, Nanjing Agricultural University, Sustainable Production, Plant & Food Research, ARS Crop Systems and Global Change Laboratory, United States Department of Agriculture, CIRN, Institute for Climate and Water, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Agriculture, Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers (ARCHE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse [ENSAT]-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Texas AgriLife Research and Extension, Texas A&M University System, Centre for Crop Systems Analysis, State Key Laboratory of Earth Surface Processes and Resource Ecology, Beijing Normal University (BNU), Metaprogramme ACCAF, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan (UNIMI), University of Nebraska–Lincoln, Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT), Natural Resources Institute Finland (LUKE), Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Nanjing Agricultural University (NAU), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse (ENSAT), Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institute of Crop Science and Resource Conservation INRES, International Rice Research Institute, Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro), UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Agroécologie et Intensification Durables des cultures annuelles (Cirad-Persyst-UPR 115 AIDA), Département Performances des systèmes de production et de transformation tropicaux (Cirad-PERSYST), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad), Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), National Agriculture and Food Research Organization, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre (CIMMYT), Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO), New Zealand Institute for Plant and Food Research Limited, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Beijing Normal University, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères ( P3F ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ), Amélioration génétique et adaptation des plantes méditerranéennes et tropicales ( UMR AGAP ), Institut national de la recherche agronomique [Montpellier] ( INRA Montpellier ) -Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques ( Montpellier SupAgro ) -Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ) -Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier ( Montpellier SupAgro ), Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection et Information Spatiale ( UMR TETIS ), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture ( IRSTEA ) -AgroParisTech-Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ), Department of Geological Sciences, W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State Univ, Dept Geol Sci, E Lansing, MI 48823 USA, UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes ( EMMAH ), Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse ( UAPV ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Invergowrie, School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] ( SEE ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), Agro-ecologyand Sustainable Intensification of Annual Crops, Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement ( CIRAD ), University of East Anglia [Norwich] ( UEA ), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), National Institute for Agro-Environmental Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), University of Nebraska-Lincoln, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), UMR 1248 Agrosystèmes et Développement Territorial (AGIR), Agro-ecology and Sustainable Intensification of Annual Crops, Instituto Nacional de Investigación Agropecuaria, Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Universidad Politécnica de Madrid ( UPM ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), PennState University [Pennsylvania] ( PSU ), W.K. Kellogg Biological Station, Department of Geological Sciences, International Maize and Wheat Improvement Centre ( CIMMYT ), International Fertilizer Development Center ( IFDC ), Food and Agricultural Organization ( FAO ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers ( ARCHE ), Institut National Polytechnique [Toulouse] ( INP ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, and Texas A and M University ( TAMU )
Subjects: [SDV.SA]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, F62 - Physiologie végétale - Croissance et développement, 01 natural sciences, Statistics, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, Climate change, Crop model, [ SDV.SA ] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences, Triticum, Mathematics, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Mathematical model, Air, Forestry, Regression analysis, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, PE&RC, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Rendement des cultures, Plant Production Systems, Statistical model, Modèle mathématique, Atmosphère, Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, Yield, Crop Physiology, P40 - Météorologie et climatologie, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Oryza sativa, Zea mays, Earth System Science, Emulator, Agro Water- en Biobased Economy, Alterra - Centrum Bodem, Precipitation, Croissance, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Meta-model, Changement climatique, Hydrology, Modélisation des cultures, Crop yield, Simulation modeling, Soil Science Centre, 15. Life on land, Température, Laboratorium voor Phytopathologie, Climate Resilience, 13. Climate action, Klimaatbestendigheid, Yield (chemistry), Plantaardige Productiesystemen, Laboratory of Phytopathology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Leerstoelgroep Aardsysteemkunde, Plante de culture, Agronomy and Crop Science, Dioxyde de carbone
Abstract: Ensembles of process-based crop models are increasingly used to simulate crop growth for scenarios of temperature and/or precipitation changes corresponding to different projections of atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This approach generates large datasets with thousands of simulated crop yield data. Such datasets potentially provide new information but it is difficult to summarize them in a useful way due to their structural complexities. An associated issue is that it is not straightforward to compare crops and to interpolate the results to alternative climate scenarios not initially included in the simulation protocols. Here we demonstrate that statistical models based on random-coefficient regressions are able to emulate ensembles of process-based crop models. An important advantage of the proposed statistical models is that they can interpolate between temperature levels and between CO2 concentration levels, and can thus be used to calculate temperature and [CO2] thresholds leading to yield loss or yield gain, without rerunning the original complex crop models. Our approach is illustrated with three yield datasets simulated by 19 maize models, 26 wheat models, and 13 rice models. Several statistical models are fitted to these datasets, and are then used to analyze the variability of the yield response to [CO2] and temperature. Based on our results, we show that, for wheat, a [CO2] increase is likely to outweigh the negative effect of a temperature increase of +2 degrees C in the considered sites. Compared to wheat, required levels of [CO2] increase are much higher for maize, and intermediate for rice. For all crops, uncertainties in simulating climate change impacts increase more with temperature than with elevated [CO2]. (C) 2015 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.
Published: 2015
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17. Mathematical modeling of COVID-19 pandemic in the context of sub-Saharan Africa: a short-term forecasting in Cameroon and Gabon

Author: Nkwayep, C, Bowong, S, Tsanou, B, Alaoui, M, Kurths, J, Dpt of Mathematics and Computer Science [Douala], Université de Douala, Unité de modélisation mathématique et informatique des systèmes complexes [Bondy] (UMMISCO), Université de Yaoundé I-Institut de la francophonie pour l'informatique-Université Cheikh Anta Diop [Dakar, Sénégal] (UCAD)-Université Gaston Bergé (Saint-Louis, Sénégal)-Université Cadi Ayyad [Marrakech] (UCA)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Nord]), University of Pretoria [South Africa], Normandie Université (NU), and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Subjects: Pharmacology, Forecasts, General Immunology and Microbiology, SARS-CoV-2, Applied Mathematics, General Neuroscience, COVID-19, General Medicine, Basic reproduction number, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Mathematical model, Modeling and Simulation, Communicable Disease Control, Humans, Epidemiological Models, Cameroon, Gabon, [MATH]Mathematics [math], Pandemics, EnKf, General Environmental Science
Abstract: In this paper, we propose and analyse a compartmental model of COVID-19 to predict and control the outbreak. We first formulate a comprehensive mathematical model for the dynamical transmission of COVID-19 in the context of sub-Saharan Africa. We provide the basic properties of the model and compute the basic reproduction number $\mathcal {R}_0$ when the parameter values are constant. After, assuming continuous measurement of the weekly number of newly COVID-19 detected cases, newly deceased individuals and newly recovered individuals, the Ensemble of Kalman filter (EnKf) approach is used to estimate the unmeasured variables and unknown parameters, which are assumed to be time-dependent using real data of COVID-19. We calibrated the proposed model to fit the weekly data in Cameroon and Gabon before, during and after the lockdown. We present the forecasts of the current pandemic in these countries using the estimated parameter values and the estimated variables as initial conditions. During the estimation period, our findings suggest that $\mathcal {R}_0 \approx 1.8377 $ in Cameroon, while $\mathcal {R}_0 \approx 1.0379$ in Gabon meaning that the disease will not die out without any control measures in theses countries. Also, the number of undetected cases remains high in both countries, which could be the source of the new wave of COVID-19 pandemic. Short-term predictions firstly show that one can use the EnKf to predict the COVID-19 in Sub-Saharan Africa and that the second vague of the COVID-19 pandemic will still increase in the future in Gabon and in Cameroon. A comparison between the basic reproduction number from human individuals $\mathcal {R}_{0h}$ and from the SARS-CoV-2 in the environment $\mathcal {R}_{0v}$ has been done in Cameroon and Gabon. A comparative study during the estimation period shows that the transmissions from the free SARS-CoV-2 in the environment is greater than that from the infected individuals in Cameroon with $\mathcal {R}_{0h}$ = 0.05721 and $\mathcal {R}_{0v}$ = 1.78051. This imply that Cameroonian apply distancing measures between individual more than with the free SARS-CoV-2 in the environment. But, the opposite is observed in Gabon with $\mathcal {R}_{0h}$ = 0.63899 and $\mathcal {R}_{0v}$ = 0.39894. So, it is important to increase the awareness campaigns to reduce contacts from individual to individual in Gabon. However, long-term predictions reveal that the COVID-19 detected cases will play an important role in the spread of the disease. Further, we found that there is a necessity to increase timely the surveillance by using an awareness program and a detection process, and the eradication of the pandemic is highly dependent on the control measures taken by each government.
Published: 2022
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18. A diagnostic evaluation of precipitation in CORDEX models over Southern Africa

Author: Grigory Nikulin, Bruce Hewitson, Alice Favre, Christopher Lennard, Hans-Jürgen Panitz, Michael Kent, Mxolisi Shongwe, Alessandro Dosio, Matthias Büchner, Izidine Pinto, Evangelia-Anna Kalognomou, University of Cape Town, Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering, Aristotle University of Thessaloniki, South African Weather Service ( SAWS ), Biogéosciences [Dijon] ( BGS ), Université de Bourgogne ( UB ) -AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability ( IES ), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] ( JRC ), Rossby Centre, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute ( SMHI ), Institut für Meteorologie und Klimaforschung, Karlsruher Institut für Technologie ( KIT ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Research supported by the Global Change System for Analysis, Research, and Training (START) in partnership with the University of Cape Town's Climate Systems Analysis Group, the World Climate Research Program, the Climate and Development Knowledge Network, the International Centre for Theoretical Physics, the Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute, and the European Union Seventh Framework Programme (FP7, 2012-2013) under Grant Agreement 316167., Laboratory of Heat Transfer and Environmental Engineering [Thessaloniki] (LHTEE), South African Weather Service (SAWS), Biogéosciences [UMR 6282] [Dijon] (BGS), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Bourgogne (UB)-AgroSup Dijon - Institut National Supérieur des Sciences Agronomiques, de l'Alimentation et de l'Environnement, JRC Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES), European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), Rossby Centre, SMHI, Norrköping, 601 76, Sweden, Swedish Meteorological and Hydrological Institute (SMHI), Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Subjects: Climatology, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Ensemble average, 0207 environmental engineering, Regional models, Magnitude (mathematics), 02 engineering and technology, Diagnostic evaluation, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, Climate prediction, [ SDE.MCG ] Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Environmental science, Climate model, Precipitation, [ SDU.STU.CL ] Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 020701 environmental engineering, Climate variability, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Downscaling
Abstract: 30 pages; International audience; The authors evaluate the ability of 10 regional climate models (RCMs) to simulate precipitation over Southern Africa within the Coordinated Regional Climate Downscaling Experiment (CORDEX) framework. An ensemble of 10 regional climate simulations and the ensemble average is analyzed to evaluate the models' ability to reproduce seasonal and interannual regional climatic features over regions of the subcontinent. All the RCMs use a similar domain, have a spatial resolution of ;50 km, and are driven by the Interim ECMWF Re-Analysis (ERA-Interim; 1989-2008). Results are compared against a number of observational datasets. In general, the spatial and temporal nature of rainfall over the region is captured by all RCMs, although individual models exhibit wet or dry biases over particular regions of the domain. Models generally produce lower seasonal variability of precipitation compared to observations and the magnitude of the variability varies in space and time. Model biases are related to model setup, simulated circulation anomalies, and moisture transport. The multimodel ensemble mean generally outperforms individual models, with bias magnitudes similar to differences across the observational datasets. In the northern parts of the domain, some of the RCMs and the ensemble average improve the precipitation climate compared to that of ERA-Interim. The models are generally able to capture the dry (wet) precipitation anomaly associated with El Nño (La Niña) events across the region. Based on this analysis, the authors suggest that the present set of RCMs can be used to provide useful information on climate projections of rainfall over Southern Africa.
Published: 2013
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19. Sustainable land use in Mountain Regions under global change synthesis across scales and disciplines

Author: Fridolin S. Brand, Ché Elkin, Robert Huber, Andreas Rigling, Willi Zimmermann, Alexandre Buttler, Thomas Spiegelberger, Harald Bugmann, Ariane Walz, Roland W. Scholz, Christian Hirschi, François Gillet, Heike Lischke, Adrienne Grêt-Regamey, Peter Bebi, Simon Briner, Roman Seidl, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Avalanche Research WSL, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology in Zürich [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Laboratoire des Systèmes d'Information Géographique [Lausanne] (LASIG), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne (EPFL), Laboratoire Chrono-environnement - UFC (UMR 6249) (LCE), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), Ecosystèmes montagnards (UR EMGR), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Laboratoire Chrono-environnement - CNRS - UBFC (UMR 6249) (LCE), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Franche-Comté (UFC)-Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté [COMUE] (UBFC), Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Avalanche Research ( WSL ), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule [Zürich] ( ETH Zürich ), Laboratoire des Systèmes d'Information Géographique [Lausanne] ( LASIG ), Ecole Polytechnique Fédérale de Lausanne ( EPFL ), Laboratoire Chrono-environnement ( LCE ), Université Bourgogne Franche-Comté ( UBFC ) -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Université de Franche-Comté ( UFC ), Ecosystèmes montagnards ( UR EMGR ), Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture ( IRSTEA ), and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK )
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, adaptive management, Institut für Erd- und Umweltwissenschaften, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Process (engineering), QH301-705.5, ADAPTATIVE MANAGEMENT, Vulnerability, GESTION ADAPTATIVE, 01 natural sciences, 12. Responsible consumption, [ SDE ] Environmental Sciences, land-use change, Goods and services, 11. Sustainability, Biology (General), Socioeconomic status, Spatial planning, QH540-549.5, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Land use, Ecology, AMENAGEMENT DU TERRITOIRE, business.industry, ECOSYSTEM SERVICE, Environmental resource management, Capacity building, transdisciplinary research, Global change, ALPES SUISSES, modeling, experiments, 15. Life on land, 010601 ecology, Geography, climate change, 13. Climate action, CHANGEMENT CLIMATIQUE, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, interdisciplinary research, SERVICE ECOSYSTEMIQUE, business, ecosystem services, ZONE DE MONTAGNE, LAND USE CHANGE
Abstract: Mountain regions provide essential ecosystem goods and services (EGS) for both mountain dwellers and people living outside these areas. Global change endangers the capacity of mountain ecosystems to provide key services. The Mountland project focused on three case study regions in the Swiss Alps and aimed to propose land-use practices and alternative policy solutions to ensure the provision of key EGS under climate and land-use changes. We summarized and synthesized the results of the project and provide insights into the ecological, socioeconomic, and political processes relevant for analyzing global change impacts on a European mountain region. In Mountland, an integrative approach was applied, combining methods from economics and the political and natural sciences to analyze ecosystem functioning from a holistic human-environment system perspective. In general, surveys, experiments, and model results revealed that climate and socioeconomic changes are likely to increase the vulnerability of the EGS analyzed. We regard the following key characteristics of coupled human-environment systems as central to our case study areas in mountain regions: thresholds, heterogeneity, trade-offs, and feedback. Our results suggest that the institutional framework should be strengthened in a way that better addresses these characteristics, allowing for (1) more integrative approaches, (2) a more network-oriented management and steering of political processes that integrate local stakeholders, and (3) enhanced capacity building to decrease the identified vulnerability as central elements in the policy process. Further, to maintain and support the future provision of EGS in mountain regions, policy making should also focus on project-oriented, cross-sectoral policies and spatial planning as a coordination instrument for land use in general.
Published: 2013
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20. Uncertainty in simulating wheat yields under climate change

Author: J. Hooker, Pramod K. Aggarwal, Joost Wolf, Pierre Martre, Iurii Shcherbak, L. A. Hunt, Kenneth J. Boote, L. Heng, James W. Jones, Jerry L. Hatfield, Katharina Waha, Christian Biernath, Iwan Supit, Eckart Priesack, Pasquale Steduto, S. Naresh Kumar, Davide Cammarano, Joachim Ingwersen, Kurt Christian Kersebaum, Fulu Tao, Christoph Müller, Jordi Doltra, Thilo Streck, Senthold Asseng, Alex C. Ruane, Jeffrey W. White, Roberto C. Izaurralde, Tom M. Osborne, Patrick Bertuzzi, Sebastian Gayler, Andrew J. Challinor, Taru Palosuo, Reimund P. Rötter, Jørgen E. Olesen, Peter J. Thorburn, Nadine Brisson, Mikhail A. Semenov, Claudio O. Stöckle, Maria I. Travasso, Daniel Wallach, James Williams, Garry O'Leary, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Carlos Angulo, Bruno Basso, R. Goldberg, Robert F. Grant, Frank Ewert, Dominique Ripoche, Pierre Stratonovitch, Claas Nendel, Agricultural and Biological Engineering Department, University of Florida [Gainesville], Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz (INRES), Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms-Universität Bonn, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), National Laboratory for Agriculture and Environment, Department of Agronomy, Ecosystem Sciences, Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation [Canberra] (CSIRO), Plant Production Research, Agrifood Research Finland, Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Department of Geological Sciences and W. K. Kellogg Biological Station, Michigan State University [East Lansing], Michigan State University System-Michigan State University System, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales (GDEC), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 (UBP), CCAFS, IWMI, NASC Complex, DPS Marg, UE Agroclim (UE AGROCLIM), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA), Institute of Soil Ecology, Helmholtz-Zentrum München (HZM), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] (ICAS), School of Earth and Environment [Leeds] (SEE), University of Leeds-University of Leeds, CGIAR-ESSP Program on Climate Change, Agriculture and Food Security, International Center for Tropical Agriculture, Centro de Investigaciòn y Formenta Agrario (CIFA), WESS-Water and Earth System Science Competence Cluster, Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen, Department of Renewable Resources, University of Alberta, International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] (IAEA), Agriculture Department, University of Reading (UOR), Department of Plant Agriculture, University of Guelph, nstitute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, University of Hohenheim, Joint Global Change Research Institute, University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System-University of Maryland System, Institute of Landscape Systems Analysis, Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture (CESCRA), Indian Agricultural Research Institute (IARI), Landscape and Water Sciences, Department of Primary Industries, Department of Agroecology, Aarhus University [Aarhus], NCAS-Climate, Walker Institute, Computational and Systems Biology Department, Rothamsted Research, Food and Agriculture Organization, Biological Systems Engineering, Washington State University (WSU), Institute of Soil Science and Land Evaluation, Plant Production Systems and Earth System Science-Climate Change, Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] (WUR), Institute of Geographical Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Institute for Climate and Water, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers (ARCHE), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées, Arid-Land Agricultural Research Center, Texas A&M University System, Department of Agricultural and Biological Engineering [Gainesville] (UF|ABE), Institute of Food and Agricultural Sciences [Gainesville] (UF|IFAS), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF)-University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), Agroclim (AGROCLIM), Eberhard Karls Universität Tübingen = Eberhard Karls University of Tuebingen, Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse [ENSAT]-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech, Institut für Nutzpflanzenwissenschaften und Ressourcenschutz ( INRES ), University of Bonn (Rheinische Friedrich-Wilhelms), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies ( GISS ), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center ( GSFC ), Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation, Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -AgroParisTech, Génétique Diversité et Ecophysiologie des Céréales ( GDEC ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Université Blaise Pascal - Clermont-Ferrand 2 ( UBP ), UE Agroclim ( UE AGROCLIM ), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ), Helmholtz-Zentrum München ( HZM ), Institute for Climate and Atmospheric Science [Leeds] ( ICAS ), University of Leeds, Centro de Investigaciòn y Formenta Agrario ( CIFA ), University of Alberta [Edmonton], International Atomic Energy Agency [Vienna] ( IAEA ), University of Reading ( UOR ), Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Centre for Environment Science and Climate Resilient Agriculture ( CESCRA ), Indian Agricultural Research Institute ( IARI ), Washington State University ( WSU ), Wageningen University and Research Centre [Wageningen] ( WUR ), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] ( CAS ), Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Agrosystèmes Cultivés et Herbagers ( ARCHE ), Institut National Polytechnique [Toulouse] ( INP ) -Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique ( INRA ) -Ecole Nationale Supérieure Agronomique de Toulouse, Texas A and M University ( TAMU ), Helmholtz Zentrum München = German Research Center for Environmental Health, Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC)-Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), Institute of geographical sciences and natural resources research [CAS] (IGSNRR), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-École nationale supérieure agronomique de Toulouse (ENSAT), Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)-Institut National Polytechnique (Toulouse) (Toulouse INP), and Université de Toulouse (UT)-Université de Toulouse (UT)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Climate change, projection, crop production, adaptation, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), 01 natural sciences, Greenhouse effect, Uncertainty analysis, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, model, [ SDV ] Life Sciences [q-bio], food, Simulation modeling, ensemble, temperature, 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Transient climate simulation, scenario, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Climatology, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, impact, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries, Environmental science, co2, Climate model, Crop simulation model, Social Sciences (miscellaneous)
Abstract: Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development andpolicymaking. Projections of climate change impacts on crop yields are inherently uncertain1. Uncertainty is often quantified when projecting future greenhouse gas emissions and their influence on climate2. However, multi-model uncertainty analysis of crop responses to climate change is rare because systematic and objective comparisons among process-based crop simulation models1, 3 are difficult4. Here we present the largest standardized model intercomparison for climate change impacts so far. We found that individual crop models are able to simulate measured wheat grain yields accurately under a range of environments, particularly if the input information is sufficient. However, simulated climate change impacts vary across models owing to differences in model structures and parameter values. A greater proportion of the uncertainty in climate change impact projections was due to variations among crop models than to variations among downscaled general circulation models. Uncertainties in simulated impacts increased with CO2 concentrations and associated warming. These impact uncertainties can be reduced by improving temperature and CO2 relationships in models and better quantified through use of multi-model ensembles. Less uncertainty in describing how climate change may affect agricultural productivity will aid adaptation strategy development and policymaking.
Published: 2013
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21. Trade‐Offs for Climate‐Smart Forestry in Europe Under Uncertain Future Climate

Author: Gregor, Konstantin, Knoke, Thomas, Krause, Andreas, Reyer, Christopher P. O., Lindeskog, Mats, Papastefanou, Phillip, Smith, Benjamin, Lansø, Anne‐Sofie, Rammig, Anja, 1 TUM School of Life Sciences Technical University of Munich Freising Germany, 2 Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research Member of the Leibniz Association Potsdam Germany, 3 Department of Physical Geography and Ecosystem Science Lund University Lund Sweden, 5 Department of Environmental Science Aarhus University Aarhus Denmark, Technische Universität München = Technical University of Munich (TUM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Lund University [Lund], Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Aarhus University [Aarhus]
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, SHORT-ROTATION COPPICE, UNMANAGED FORESTS, VEGETATION DYNAMICS, climate‐smart forestry, LAND-USE, forest management, substitution effects, robust optimization, ECOSYSTEM SERVICES, climate change mitigation, ddc, CARBON SEQUESTRATION, climate-smart forestry, ddc:634.9, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), MANAGEMENT, ddc:630, GREENHOUSE-GAS CONCENTRATIONS, LPJ-GUESS V4.0, ecosystem services, BIOMASS PRODUCTIVITY, GENERAL, Climate and interannual variability, Numerical modeling, NATURAL HAZARDS, Atmospheric, Geological, Oceanic, Physical modeling, Climate impact, Risk, Disaster risk analysis and assessment, OCEANOGRAPHY: PHYSICAL, Air/sea interactions, Decadal ocean variability, Ocean influence of Earth rotation, Sea level: variations and mean, Surface waves and tides, Tsunamis and storm surges, PALEOCEANOGRAPHY, POLICY SCIENCES, Benefit-cost analysis, RADIO SCIENCE, Radio oceanography, SEISMOLOGY, Earthquake ground motions and engineering seismology, Volcano seismology, TECTONOPHYSICS, Evolution of the Earth, VOLCANOLOGY, Volcano/climate interactions, Atmospheric effects, Volcano monitoring, Effusive volcanism, Mud volcanism, Explosive volcanism, Volcanic hazards and risks, GEOGRAPHIC LOCATION, Europe, Research Article, robust optimization [ATMOSPHERIC COMPOSITION AND STRUCTURE, Air/sea constituent fluxes, Biosphere/atmosphere interactions, Evolution of the atmosphere, Volcanic effects, BIOGEOSCIENCES, Modeling, Climate dynamics, COMPUTATIONAL GEOPHYSICS, Numerical solutions, CRYOSPHERE, Avalanches, Mass balance, GEODESY AND GRAVITY, Ocean monitoring with geodetic techniques, Ocean/Earth/atmosphere/hydrosphere/cryosphere interactions, Global change from geodesy, GLOBAL CHANGE, Impacts of global change, Land/atmosphere interactions, Abrupt/rapid climate change, Atmosphere, Climate variability, Earth system modeling, Oceans, Regional climate change, Sea level change, Solid Earth, Water cycles, HYDROLOGY, Climate impacts, Hydrological cycles and budgets, INFORMATICS, MARINE GEOLOGY AND GEOPHYSICS, Gravity and isostasy, ATMOSPHERIC PROCESSES, Climate change and variability, Climatology, General circulation, Ocean/atmosphere interactions, Regional modeling, Theoretical modeling, OCEANOGRAPHY], [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, General Environmental Science
Abstract: Forests mitigate climate change by storing carbon and reducing emissions via substitution effects of wood products. Additionally, they provide many other important ecosystem services (ESs), but are vulnerable to climate change; therefore, adaptation is necessary. Climate‐smart forestry combines mitigation with adaptation, whilst facilitating the provision of many ESs. This is particularly challenging due to large uncertainties about future climate. Here, we combined ecosystem modeling with robust multi‐criteria optimization to assess how the provision of various ESs (climate change mitigation, timber provision, local cooling, water availability, and biodiversity habitat) can be guaranteed under a broad range of climate futures across Europe. Our optimized portfolios contain 29% unmanaged forests, and implicate a successive conversion of 34% of coniferous to broad‐leaved forests (11% vice versa). Coppices practically vanish from Southern Europe, mainly due to their high water requirement. We find the high shares of unmanaged forests necessary to keep European forests a carbon sink while broad‐leaved and unmanaged forests contribute to local cooling through biogeophysical effects. Unmanaged forests also pose the largest benefit for biodiversity habitat. However, the increased shares of unmanaged and broad‐leaved forests lead to reductions in harvests. This raises the question of how to meet increasing wood demands without transferring ecological impacts elsewhere or enhancing the dependence on more carbon‐intensive industries. Furthermore, the mitigation potential of forests depends on assumptions about the decarbonization of other industries and is consequently crucially dependent on the emission scenario. Our findings highlight that trade‐offs must be assessed when developing concrete strategies for climate‐smart forestry., Plain Language Summary: Forests help mitigate climate change by storing carbon and via avoided emissions when wood products replace more carbon‐intensive materials. At the same time, forests provide many other “ecosystem services (ESs)” to society. For example, they provide timber, habitat for various species, and they cool their surrounding regions. They are, however, also vulnerable to ongoing climate change. Forest management must consider all these aspects, which is particularly challenging considering the uncertainty about future climate. Here, we propose how this may be tackled by computing optimized forest management portfolios for Europe for a broad range of future climate pathways. Our results show that changes to forest composition are necessary. In particular, increased shares of unmanaged and broad‐leaved forests are beneficial for numerous ESs. However, these increased shares also lead to decreases in harvest rates, posing a conflict between wood supply and demand. We further show that the mitigation potential of forests strongly depends on how carbon‐intensive the replaced materials are. Consequently, should these materials become “greener” due to new technologies, the importance of wood products in terms of climate change mitigation decreases. Our study highlights that we cannot optimize every aspect, but that trade‐offs between ESs need to be made., Key Points: Strategies for climate‐smart forestry under a range of climate scenarios always lead to trade‐offs between different ecosystem services (ESs). Higher shares of unmanaged and broad‐leaved forests are beneficial for numerous ESs, but lead to decreased timber provision. The mitigation potential of forests strongly relies on substitution effects which depend on the carbon‐intensity of the alternative products., European Forest Institute (EFI) Networking Fund http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100013942, Bayerisches Staatsministerium für Wissenschaft und Kunst, Bayerisches Netzwerk für Klimaforschung (BayKliF) http://dx.doi.org/10.13039/501100004563, Swedish Research Council Formas, German Federal Office for Agriculture and Food (BLE), https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6667489, https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.6612953
Published: 2022
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22. Net biome production of the Amazon Basin in the 21st century

Author: Poulter , Benjamin, Aragao , Luiz, Heyder , Ursula, Gumpenberger , Marlies, Heinke , Jens, Langerwisch , Fanny, Rammig , Anja, Thonicke , Kirsten, Cramer , Wolfgang, Institute on Ecosystems and Department of Ecology [Bozeman], Montana State University ( MSU ), School of Geography, University of Exceter, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale ( IMBE ), Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse ( UAPV ) -Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ) -Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ), Montana State University (MSU), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Avignon Université (AU)
Subjects: [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2010
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23. Predicting pan-tropical climate change induced forest stock gains and losses—implications for REDD

Author: Marlies Gumpenberger, Kirsten Macey, Wolfgang Cramer, Ursula Heyder, Katrin Vohland, Alexander Popp, Benjamin Poulter, Anja Rammig, Institute on Ecosystems and Department of Ecology [Bozeman], Montana State University (MSU), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institute for Computational Mechanics, Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne] (TUM), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE), Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Montana State University ( MSU ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research ( PIK ), Technische Universität München [München] ( TUM ), Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale ( IMBE ), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique ( CNRS ) -Institut de recherche pour le développement [IRD] : UMR237-Aix Marseille Université ( AMU ) -Université d'Avignon et des Pays de Vaucluse ( UAPV )
Subjects: [ SDE.BE ] Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Natural resource economics, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, Climate change, 15. Life on land, 010501 environmental sciences, Carbon sequestration, 01 natural sciences, Biosequestration, 13. Climate action, United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, Climatology, Greenhouse gas, 11. Sustainability, Tropical climate, Climate change scenario, Environmental science, Land use, land-use change and forestry, [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract: Deforestation is a major threat to tropical forests worldwide, contributing up to one-fifth of global carbon emissions into the atmosphere. Despite protection efforts, deforestation of tropical forests has continued in recent years. Providing incentives to reducing deforestation has been proposed in the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) Bali negotiations in 2007 to decelerate emissions from deforestation (REDD—reduced emissions from deforestation and forest degradation). A number of methodological issues such as ensuring permanence, establishing reference emissions levels that do not reward business-as-usual and having a measuring, reporting and verification system in place are essential elements in implementing successful REDD schemes. To assess the combined impacts of climate and land-use change on tropical forest carbon stocks in the 21st century, we use a dynamic global vegetation model (LPJ DGVM) driven by five different climate change projections under a given greenhouse gas emission scenario (SRES A2) and two contrasting land-use change scenarios. We find that even under a complete stop of deforestation after the period of the Kyoto Protocol (post-2012) some countries may continue to lose carbon stocks due to climate change. Especially at risk is tropical Latin America, although the presence and magnitude of the risk depends on the climate change scenario. By contrast, strong protection of forests could increase carbon uptake in many tropical countries, due to CO2 fertilization effects, even under altered climate regimes.
Published: 2010
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24. Spatially explicit analysis identifies significant potential for bioenergy with carbon capture and storage in China

Author: Xin Yang, Jianmin Ma, Rong Wang, Guofeng Shen, Olivier Boucher, Siqing Xu, Ivan A. Janssens, Xingnan Ye, Yutao Wang, Xiaofan Xing, Josep Peñuelas, Lin Wang, Daniel S. Goll, Philippe Ciais, James H. Clark, Nico Bauer, Xu Tang, Jianmin Chen, Qing X. Li, Bo Pan, Wei Li, Junji Cao, Gang Luo, Shicheng Zhang, Yves Balkanski, Yechen Yang, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Fudan University [Shanghai], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Modelling the Earth Response to Multiple Anthropogenic Interactions and Dynamics (MERMAID), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), This work was funded by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41877506,21925601, 41922057), National Key Research and Development Program of China(No. 2017YFC0212200), the Chinese Thousand Youth Talents Program, Chinese Academyof Science (XDA23010100), the ERC-Synergy IMBALANCE-P, and the ANR CLANDConvergence Institute 16-CONV-0003. The research leading to these results was also supported by the PEGASOS (01LA1826C) project funded by the German Federal Ministry ofEducation and Research (BMBF). We gratefully acknowledge the useful comments offeredby three anonymous referees which are helpful to improve the manuscript., and ANR-16-CONV-0003,CLAND,CLAND : Changement climatique et usage des terres(2016)
Subjects: Marginal cost, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Economics, Natural resource economics, 020209 energy, Science, General Physics and Astronomy, Biomass, 02 engineering and technology, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, 12. Responsible consumption, Engineering, Economic cost, 11. Sustainability, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, Carbon capture and storage, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Climate-change mitigation, Biology, ddc:910, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Energy, Multidisciplinary, Agriculture, Bio-energy with carbon capture and storage, General Chemistry, Climate change mitigation, Carbon neutrality, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Environmental science, Climate Change Mitigation, Engineering sciences. Technology
Abstract: As China ramped-up coal power capacities rapidly while CO2 emissions need to decline, these capacities would turn into stranded assets. To deal with this risk, a promising option is to retrofit these capacities to co-fire with biomass and eventually upgrade to CCS operation (BECCS), but the feasibility is debated with respect to negative impacts on broader sustainability issues. Here we present a data-rich spatially explicit approach to estimate the marginal cost curve for decarbonizing the power sector in China with BECCS. We identify a potential of 222 GW of power capacities in 2836 counties generated by co-firing 0.9 Gt of biomass from the same county, with half being agricultural residues. Our spatially explicit method helps to reduce uncertainty in the economic costs and emissions of BECCS, identify the best opportunities for bioenergy and show the limitations by logistical challenges to achieve carbon neutrality in the power sector with large-scale BECCS in China., China has pledged to achieve carbon neutrality in 2060. Here the authors find a promising option to abate 1.0 Gt CO2-eq yr−1 of carbon emissions at a marginal cost of $69 (t CO2-eq)−1 by retrofitting 222 GW of coal power plants to co-fire with biomass and upgrading to CCS operation across 2836 counties in China.
Published: 2021
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25. Tackling unresolved questions in forest ecology: The past and future role of simulation models

Author: Alessio Collalti, Kirsten Thonicke, Fanny Langerwisch, Friedrich J. Bohn, Manfred J. Lexer, Xavier Morin, Edna Rödig, Heike Lischke, Franziska Taubert, Isabelle Maréchaux, Martin Gutsch, Giorgio Vacchiano, Boris Sakschewski, Anja Rammig, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Harald Bugmann, Andreas Huth, Rupert Seidl, Mateus Dantas de Paula, Rico Fischer, Botanique et Modélisation de l'Architecture des Plantes et des Végétations (UMR AMAP), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Palacky University Olomouc, Osnabrück University, Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), German Centre for Integrative Biodiversity Research (iDiv), Institute of Terrestrial Ecosystems (ITES), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro), Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), University of Natural Resources and Life Sciences (BOKU), University of Tuscia, Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Technical University of Munich (TUM), Università degli Studi di Milano [Milano] (UNIMI), COST Action FP1304 PROFOUND, German Federal Ministry of Science and Education. Grant Number: 01LS1711A, Austrian Science Fund. Grant Number: Y895‐B25, ANR-10-LABX-0025,CEBA,CEnter of the study of Biodiversity in Amazonia(2010), Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne] (TUM), Universität Osnabrück - Osnabrück University, Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD [France-Sud])-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Università degli studi della Tuscia [Viterbo], Università degli Studi di Milano = University of Milan (UNIMI), and Lehrstuhl für Ökosystemdynamik und Waldmanagement in Gebirgslandschaften
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Reviews, Context (language use), Review, [SDV.BID.SPT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Biodiversity/Systematics, Phylogenetics and taxonomy, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, Dynamic global vegetation model, 03 medical and health sciences, [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment/Ecosystems, Forest ecology, ddc:630, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, QH540-549.5, 030304 developmental biology, Nature and Landscape Conservation, Pace, Gap model, 0303 health sciences, Forest dynamics, Ecology, business.industry, Forest modelling, Simulation modeling, Environmental resource management, Species distribution model, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, [SDV.BV.BOT]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Vegetal Biology/Botanics, ddc, Geography, 13. Climate action, Complementarity (molecular biology), [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology, business
Abstract: Understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure, and diversity remains challenging, although data on forest systems are being collected at a rapid pace and across scales. Forest models have a long history in bridging data with ecological knowledge and can simulate forest dynamics over spatio‐temporal scales unreachable by most empirical investigations.We describe the development that different forest modelling communities have followed to underpin the leverage that simulation models offer for advancing our understanding of forest ecosystems.Using three widely applied but contrasting approaches – species distribution models, individual‐based forest models, and dynamic global vegetation models – as examples, we show how scientific and technical advances have led models to transgress their initial objectives and limitations. We provide an overview of recent model applications on current important ecological topics and pinpoint ten key questions that could, and should, be tackled with forest models in the next decade.Synthesis. This overview shows that forest models, due to their complementarity and mutual enrichment, represent an invaluable toolkit to address a wide range of fundamental and applied ecological questions, hence fostering a deeper understanding of forest dynamics in the context of global change., Forest models can help understanding the processes that shape forest functioning, structure and diversity, since they can can simulate forest dynamics over spatio‐temporal scales unreachable by most empirical investigations. Here we describe the development of three widely applied but contrasting forest mo−delling approaches — species distribution models, individual‐based models and dynamic global vegetation models. We provide an overview of recent model applications and pinpoint ten key questions that could, and should, be tackled with forest models in the next decade.
Published: 2021
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26. Narrowing uncertainties in the effects of elevated CO2 on crops

Author: Kenneth J. Boote, Franz Badeck, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Andrej Ceglar, Gerard W. Wall, Remi Lecerf, Raúl López-Lozano, Matteo Zampieri, Andrea Toreti, Håkan Pleijel, Jean-Louis Durand, Frank Dentener, Remy Manderscheid, Francesco N. Tubiello, Gerald Moser, Christoph Müller, Bruce A. Kimball, Senthold Asseng, Erik Mencos Contreras, Garry O'Leary, Xuhui Wang, Eline Vanuytrecht, Cynthia Rosenzweig, Delphine Deryng, Stefano Galmarini, Heidi Webber, Maurits van den Berg, Petra Hoegy, European Commission - Joint Research Centre [Ispra] (JRC), NewClimate Institute, IRI THESys, Humboldt State University (HSU), Leibniz-Zentrum für Agrarlandschaftsforschung = Leibniz Centre for Agricultural Landscape Research (ZALF), Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations [Rome, Italie] (FAO), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), USDA Agricultural Research Service [Maricopa, AZ] (USDA), United States Department of Agriculture (USDA), Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), University of Florida [Gainesville] (UF), University of Birmingham [Birmingham], Lund University [Lund], Flemish Institute for Technological Research (VITO), Catholic University of Leuven - Katholieke Universiteit Leuven (KU Leuven), University of Gothenburg (GU), Unité de Recherche Pluridisciplinaire Prairies et Plantes Fourragères (P3F), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria (CREA), University of Hohenheim, Environnement Méditerranéen et Modélisation des Agro-Hydrosystèmes (EMMAH), Avignon Université (AU)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Agriculture Victoria (AgriBio), Thünen Institute of Biodiversity, NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Center for Climate Systems Research [New York] (CCSR), Columbia University [New York], Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University (JLU), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Consiglio per la Ricerca in Agricoltura e l’analisi dell’economia agraria = Council for Agricultural Research and Economics (CREA)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, CARBON-DIOXIDE ENRICHMENT, PROTEIN-CONCENTRATION, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Natural resource economics, Climate change, Nutritional quality, 01 natural sciences, Crop, WHEAT-GRAIN QUALITY, FUTURE CO2, USE EFFICIENCY, Sustainable agriculture, Precipitation, ATMOSPHERIC CO2, Agricultural productivity, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 2. Zero hunger, Carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere, Science & Technology, FACE EXPERIMENT, business.industry, FOOD SECURITY, fungi, food and beverages, 15. Life on land, CLIMATE-CHANGE IMPACT, MODEL, 13. Climate action, Agriculture, Food Science & Technology, Environmental science, Animal Science and Zoology, business, Life Sciences & Biomedicine, Agronomy and Crop Science, 010606 plant biology & botany, Food Science
Abstract: International audience; Plant responses to rising atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) concentrations, together with projected variations in temperature and precipitation will determine future agricultural production. Estimates of the impacts of climate change on agriculture provide essential information to design effective adaptation strategies, and develop sustainable food systems. Here, we review the current experimental evidence and crop models on the effects of elevated CO2 concentrations. Recent concerted efforts have narrowed the uncertainties in CO2-induced crop responses so that climate change impact simulations omitting CO2 can now be eliminated. To address remaining knowledge gaps and uncertainties in estimating the effects of elevated CO2 and climate change on crops, future research should expand experiments on more crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improve the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models, and simulate additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.Understanding of the effects of elevated CO2 on crops has improved sufficiently that modelling future climatic effects on agriculture should eliminate 'no CO2' simulations. Further advancement in the estimation of the effects can be realized by studying a wider variety of crop species under a wider range of growing conditions, improving the representation of responses to climate extremes in crop models and simulating additional crop physiological processes related to nutritional quality.
Published: 2020
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27. Report on ICDP Deep Dust workshops: probing continental climate of the late Paleozoic icehouse–greenhouse transition and beyond

Author: Cindy V. Looy, Lily S. Pfeifer, Linda A. Hinnov, Kathleen C. Benison, Nicholas G. Heavens, Stéphane Pochat, Gerilyn S. Soreghan, Mehrdad Sardar Abadi, James J. Zambito, Georg Feulner, Sylvie Bourquin, Adam K. Huttenlocker, Natsuko Hamamura, Michael A. Hamilton, Laurent Beccaletto, University of Oklahoma (OU), Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), West Virginia University [Morgantown], Géosciences Rennes (GR), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 1 (UR1), Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES)-Université de Rennes (UNIV-RENNES), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Kyushu University [Fukuoka], University of Toronto, Space Science Institute [Boulder] (SSI), George Mason University [Fairfax], University of Southern California (USC), University of California [Berkeley], University of California, Laboratoire de Planétologie et Géodynamique [UMR 6112] (LPG), Université d'Angers (UA)-Université de Nantes - UFR des Sciences et des Techniques (UN UFR ST), Université de Nantes (UN)-Université de Nantes (UN)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Beloit College, Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Rennes (OSUR), Université de Rennes (UR)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université de Rennes 2 (UR2)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Kyushu University, University of California [Berkeley] (UC Berkeley), and University of California (UC)
Subjects: Pangaea, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Paleozoic, Permian, Mechanical Engineering, Earth science, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Energy Engineering and Power Technology, Biosphere, 15. Life on land, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:Geology, Earth system science, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 13. Climate action, [SDU.STU.ST]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Stratigraphy, Paleoclimatology, Period (geology), Paleoecology, Geology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: Chamberlin and Salisbury's assessment of the Permian a century ago captured the essence of the period: it is an interval of extremes yet one sufficiently recent to have affected a biosphere with near-modern complexity. The events of the Permian – the orogenic episodes, massive biospheric turnovers, both icehouse and greenhouse antitheses, and Mars-analog lithofacies – boggle the imagination and present us with great opportunities to explore Earth system behavior. The ICDP-funded workshops dubbed “Deep Dust,” held in Oklahoma (USA) in March 2019 (67 participants from nine countries) and Paris (France) in January 2020 (33 participants from eight countries), focused on clarifying the scientific drivers and key sites for coring continuous sections of Permian continental (loess, lacustrine, and associated) strata that preserve high-resolution records. Combined, the two workshops hosted a total of 91 participants representing 14 countries, with broad expertise. Discussions at Deep Dust 1.0 (USA) focused on the primary research questions of paleoclimate, paleoenvironments, and paleoecology of icehouse collapse and the run-up to the Great Dying and both the modern and Permian deep microbial biosphere. Auxiliary science topics included tectonics, induced seismicity, geothermal energy, and planetary science. Deep Dust 1.0 also addressed site selection as well as scientific approaches, logistical challenges, and broader impacts and included a mid-workshop field trip to view the Permian of Oklahoma. Deep Dust 2.0 focused specifically on honing the European target. The Anadarko Basin (Oklahoma) and Paris Basin (France) represent the most promising initial targets to capture complete or near-complete stratigraphic coverage through continental successions that serve as reference points for western and eastern equatorial Pangaea.
Published: 2020
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28. Antarctic ice sheet response to sudden and sustained ice-shelf collapse (ABUMIP)

Author: Sun, Sainan, Pattyn, Frank, Simon, Erika G., Albrecht, Torsten, Cornford, Stephen, Calov, Reinhard, Dumas, Christophe, Gillet-Chaulet, Fabien, Goelzer, Heiko, Golledge, Nicholas R., Greve, Ralf, Hoffman, Matthew J., Humbert, Angelika, Kazmierczak, Elise, Kleiner, Thomas, Leguy, Gunter R., Lipscomb, William H., Martin, Daniel, Morlighem, Mathieu, Nowicki, Sophie, Pollard, David, Price, Stephen, Quiquet, Aurélien, Seroussi, Hélène, Schlemm, Tanja, Sutter, Johannes, Van De Wal, Roderik S.W., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Zhang, Tong, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, Coastal dynamics, Fluvial systems and Global change, Laboratoire de Glaciologie [Bruxelles], Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Swansea University, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Proceskunde, Sub Algemeen Marine & Atmospheric Res, and Coastal dynamics, Fluvial systems and Global change
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Ice stream, F700, Collapse (topology), Antarctic ice sheet, F800, Present day, 010502 geochemistry & geophysics, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, F900, Physical Geography and Environmental Geoscience, Ice shelf, Antarctic glaciology, Meteorology & Atmospheric Sciences, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ice shelves, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, geography, geography.geographical_feature_category, East antarctica, Glaciologie, Radiative forcing, Climate Action, 13. Climate action, ice-sheet modelling, Ice sheet, Geology, Sciences exactes et naturelles
Abstract: Antarctica's ice shelves modulate the grounded ice flow, and weakening of ice shelves due to climate forcing will decrease their ‘buttressing’ effect, causing a response in the grounded ice. While the processes governing ice-shelf weakening are complex, uncertainties in the response of the grounded ice sheet are also difficult to assess. The Antarctic BUttressing Model Intercomparison Project (ABUMIP) compares ice-sheet model responses to decrease in buttressing by investigating the ‘end-member’ scenario of total and sustained loss of ice shelves. Although unrealistic, this scenario enables gauging the sensitivity of an ensemble of 15 ice-sheet models to a total loss of buttressing, hence exhibiting the full potential of marine ice-sheet instability. All models predict that this scenario leads to multi-metre (1–12 m) sea-level rise over 500 years from present day. West Antarctic ice sheet collapse alone leads to a 1.91–5.08 m sea-level rise due to the marine ice-sheet instability. Mass loss rates are a strong function of the sliding/friction law, with plastic laws cause a further destabilization of the Aurora and Wilkes Subglacial Basins, East Antarctica. Improvements to marine ice-sheet models have greatly reduced variability between modelled ice-sheet responses to extreme ice-shelf loss, e.g. compared to the SeaRISE assessments., info:eu-repo/semantics/published
Published: 2020
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29. Understanding the uncertainty in global forest carbon turnover

Author: T. A. M. Pugh, T. Rademacher, S. L. Shafer, J. Steinkamp, J. Barichivich, B. Beckage, V. Haverd, A. Harper, J. Heinke, K. Nishina, A. Rammig, H. Sato, A. Arneth, S. Hantson, T. Hickler, M. Kautz, B. Quesada, B. Smith, K. Thonicke, School of Geography, Earth and Environmental Sciences [Birmingham], University of Birmingham [Birmingham], Birmingham Institute of Forest Research (BIFoR), Department of Organismic and Evolutionary Biology [Cambridge] (OEB), Harvard University [Cambridge], School of Informatics, Computing, and Cyber Systems (SICCS), Northern Arizona University [Flagstaff], Center for Ecosystem Science and Society (ECOSS), Geosciences and Environmental Climate Change Science Center, United States Geological Survey [Reston] (USGS), Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Universidad Austral de Chile, University of Vermont [Burlington], CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere, CISRO Oceans and Atmosphere, College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences [Exeter] (EMPS), University of Exeter, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne] (TUM), Japan Agency for Marine-Earth Science and Technology (JAMSTEC), DEPARTMENT OF EARTH SYSTEM SCIENCES UNIVERSITY OF CALIFORNIA IRVINE CA USA, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Forest Research Institute Baden-Württemberg - Forstliche Versuchs- und Forschungsanstalt Baden-Württemberg, Universidad del Rosario [Bogota], DEPARTMENT OF PHYSICAL GEOGRAPHY AND ECOSYSTEM SCIENCE LUND UNIVERSITY SWE, Western Sydney University, Seventh Framework Programme, FP7: 50 603542 European Research Council, ERC: 758873 Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS Svenska ForskningsrÃ¥det Formas: 211-2009-1682 Helmholtz Association Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, CNRS, Financial support. This research has been supported by the Euro, pean Commission, European Research Council (TreeMort – grant no. 758873), Seventh Framework Programme (LUC4C – grant no. 50 603542), the Svenska Forskningsrådet Formas (Dnr. 211-2009-1682 and the strategic research areas BECC and MERGE), the Helmholtz Association ATMO programme, the Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) of France through the programme 'Make Our Planet Great Again', the U.S. Geological Survey Land Change Science Program, and the Helmholtz Alliance 'Remote Sensing and Earth System Dynamics'., Harvard University, and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Environmental change, lcsh:Life, 01 natural sciences, Carbon cycle, lcsh:QH540-549.5, ddc:550, Baseline (configuration management), Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, Earth-Surface Processes, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Biomass (ecology), lcsh:QE1-996.5, Biosphere, Soil carbon, 15. Life on land, Plant functional type, lcsh:Geology, Earth sciences, lcsh:QH501-531, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 13. Climate action, Turnover, lcsh:Ecology, Physical geography, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: The length of time that carbon remains in forest biomass is one of the largest uncertainties in the global carbon cycle, with both recent historical baselines and future responses to environmental change poorly constrained by available observations. In the absence of large-scale observations, models used for global assessments tend to fall back on simplified assumptions of the turnover rates of biomass and soil carbon pools. In this study, the biomass carbon turnover times calculated by an ensemble of contemporary terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) are analysed to assess their current capability to accurately estimate biomass carbon turnover times in forests and how these times are anticipated to change in the future. Modelled baseline 1985–2014 global average forest biomass turnover times vary from 12.2 to 23.5 years between TBMs. TBM differences in phenological processes, which control allocation to, and turnover rate of, leaves and fine roots, are as important as tree mortality with regard to explaining the variation in total turnover among TBMs. The different governing mechanisms exhibited by each TBM result in a wide range of plausible turnover time projections for the end of the century. Based on these simulations, it is not possible to draw robust conclusions regarding likely future changes in turnover time, and thus biomass change, for different regions. Both spatial and temporal uncertainty in turnover time are strongly linked to model assumptions concerning plant functional type distributions and their controls. Thirteen model-based hypotheses of controls on turnover time are identified, along with recommendations for pragmatic steps to test them using existing and novel observations. Efforts to resolve uncertainty in turnover time, and thus its impacts on the future evolution of biomass carbon stocks across the world's forests, will need to address both mortality and establishment components of forest demography, as well as allocation of carbon to woody versus non-woody biomass growth.
Published: 2020
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30. The PROFOUND Database for evaluating vegetation models and simulating climate impacts on European forests

Author: C. P. O. Reyer, R. Silveyra Gonzalez, K. Dolos, F. Hartig, Y. Hauf, M. Noack, P. Lasch-Born, T. Rötzer, H. Pretzsch, H. Meesenburg, S. Fleck, M. Wagner, A. Bolte, T. G. M. Sanders, P. Kolari, A. Mäkelä, T. Vesala, I. Mammarella, J. Pumpanen, A. Collalti, C. Trotta, G. Matteucci, E. D'Andrea, L. Foltýnová, J. Krejza, A. Ibrom, K. Pilegaard, D. Loustau, J.-M. Bonnefond, P. Berbigier, D. Picart, S. Lafont, M. Dietze, D. Cameron, M. Vieno, H. Tian, A. Palacios-Orueta, V. Cicuendez, L. Recuero, K. Wiese, M. Büchner, S. Lange, J. Volkholz, H. Kim, J. A. Horemans, F. Bohn, J. Steinkamp, A. Chikalanov, G. P. Weedon, J. Sheffield, F. Babst, I. Vega del Valle, F. Suckow, S. Martel, M. Mahnken, M. Gutsch, K. Frieler, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), University of Regensburg, Fachagentur Nachwachsende Rohstoffe, Partenaires INRAE, Technical University of Munich (TUM), Northwest German Forest Research Station, Thünen Institute, University of Helsinki, University of Eastern Finland, Istituto per i Sistemi Agricoli e Forestali del Mediterraneo (ISAFOM), Consiglio Nazionale delle Ricerche [Roma] (CNR), Università degli studi della Tuscia [Viterbo], Institute for agriculture and forestry systems in the Mediterranean (CNR-ISAFOM), Global Change Research Institute CAS, Biosystems Division [Roskilde], Risø National Laboratory for Sustainable Energy (Risø DTU), Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] (DTU)-Technical University of Denmark [Lyngby] (DTU), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Boston University [Boston] (BU), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology [Wallingford] (CEH), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Auburn University (AU), Universidad Politécnica de Madrid (UPM), Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology (KAIST), University of Antwerp (UA), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Senckenberg Biodiversity and Climate Research Centre (SBiK-F), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main-Senckenberg – Leibniz Institution for Biodiversity and Earth System Research - Senckenberg Gesellschaft für Naturforschung, Leibniz Association-Leibniz Association, University of Library Study and Information Technology, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office [Exeter], Princeton University, Swiss Federal Institute for Forest, Snow and Landscape Research WSL, Micrometeorology and biogeochemical cycles, INAR Physics, Ecosystem processes (INAR Forest Sciences), Institute for Atmospheric and Earth System Research (INAR), Department of Forest Sciences, Viikki Plant Science Centre (ViPS), Forest Modelling Group, and Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne] (TUM)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, SILVICULTURAL ALTERNATIVES, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, BIAS CORRECTION, Flat file database, Relational database, Geography & travel, Climate Change, Eddy covariance, Climate change, computer.software_genre, 01 natural sciences, Ecology and Environment, Profound, Data file, USE EFFICIENCY, SDG 13 - Climate Action, Temporal scales, ATMOSPHERIC CHEMISTRY, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, ddc:910, lcsh:GE1-350, Data, 4112 Forestry, OAK QUERCUS-PETRAEA, Database, ISIMIP, NET ECOSYSTEM EXCHANGE, INTERCOMPARISON PROJECT, Physics, Forest Model, lcsh:QE1-996.5, Representative Concentration Pathways, PINUS-SYLVESTRIS, Vegetation, 15. Life on land, 113 Computer and information sciences, EDDY-COVARIANCE, lcsh:Geology, Chemistry, 13. Climate action, FAGUS-SYLVATICA L, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, computer, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: Process-based vegetation models are widely used to predict local and global ecosystem dynamics and climate change impacts. Due to their complexity, they require careful parameterization and evaluation to ensure that projections are accurate and reliable. The PROFOUND Database (PROFOUND DB) provides a wide range of empirical data on European forests to calibrate and evaluate vegetation models that simulate climate impacts at the forest stand scale. A particular advantage of this database is its wide coverage of multiple data sources at different hierarchical and temporal scales, together with environmental driving data as well as the latest climate scenarios. Specifically, the PROFOUND DB provides general site descriptions, soil, climate, CO2, nitrogen deposition, tree and forest stand level, and remote sensing data for nine contrasting forest stands distributed across Europe. Moreover, for a subset of five sites, time series of carbon fluxes, atmospheric heat conduction and soil water are also available. The climate and nitrogen deposition data contain several datasets for the historic period and a wide range of future climate change scenarios following the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6.0, RCP8.5). We also provide pre-industrial climate simulations that allow for model runs aimed at disentangling the contribution of climate change to observed forest productivity changes. The PROFOUND DB is available freely as a “SQLite” relational database or “ASCII” flat file version (at https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2020.006/; Reyer et al., 2020). The data policies of the individual contributing datasets are provided in the metadata of each data file. The PROFOUND DB can also be accessed via the ProfoundData R package (https://CRAN.R-project.org/package=ProfoundData; Silveyra Gonzalez et al., 2020), which provides basic functions to explore, plot and extract the data for model set-up, calibration and evaluation.
Published: 2020
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31. Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude – evidence from a model–observation investigation

Author: H. X. Do, F. Zhao, S. Westra, M. Leonard, L. Gudmundsson, J. E. S. Boulange, J. Chang, P. Ciais, D. Gerten, S. N. Gosling, H. Müller Schmied, T. Stacke, C.-E. Telteu, Y. Wada, University of Adelaide, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Physics Department [Adelaide], Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Université de Tsukuba = University of Tsukuba, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), School of Geography [Nottingham], University of Nottingham, UK (UON), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, 0208 environmental biotechnology, Climate change, Context (language use), 02 engineering and technology, lcsh:Technology, 01 natural sciences, lcsh:TD1-1066, Streamflow, lcsh:Environmental technology. Sanitary engineering, [SDU.STU.HY]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Hydrology, lcsh:Environmental sciences, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, lcsh:GE1-350, Flood myth, lcsh:T, lcsh:Geography. Anthropology. Recreation, Radiative forcing, 020801 environmental engineering, lcsh:G, 13. Climate action, Greenhouse gas, Climatology, Spatial ecology, Environmental science, Climate model
Abstract: International audience; To improve the understanding of trends in extreme flows related to flood events at the global scale, historical and future changes of annual maxima of 7 d streamflow are investigated , using a comprehensive streamflow archive and six global hydrological models. The models' capacity to charac-terise trends in annual maxima of 7 d streamflow at the continental and global scale is evaluated across 3666 river gauge locations over the period from 1971 to 2005, focusing on four aspects of trends: (i) mean, (ii) standard deviation, (iii) percentage of locations showing significant trends and (iv) spatial pattern. Compared to observed trends, simulated trends driven by observed climate forcing generally have a higher mean, lower spread and a similar percentage of locations showing significant trends. Models show a low to moderate capacity to simulate spatial patterns of historical trends, with approximately only from 12 % to 25 % of the spatial variance of observed trends across all gauge stations accounted for by the simulations. Interestingly, there are statistically significant differences between trends simulated by global hydrological models (GHMs) forced with observational climate and by those forced by bias-corrected climate model output during the historical period, suggesting the important role of the stochastic natural (decadal, inter-annual) climate variability. Significant differences were found in simulated flood trends when averaged only at gauged locations compared to those averaged across all simulated grid cells, highlighting the potential for bias toward well-observed regions in our understanding of changes in floods. Future climate projections (simulated under the RCP2.6 and RCP6.0 greenhouse gas concentration scenarios) suggest a potentially high level of change in individual regions, with up to 35 % of cells showing a statistically significant trend (increase or de-Published by Copernicus Publications on behalf of the European Geosciences Union. 1544 H. X. Do et al.: Historical and future changes in global flood magnitude crease; at 10 % significance level) and greater changes indicated for the higher concentration pathway. Importantly, the observed streamflow database under-samples the percentage of locations consistently projected with increased flood hazards under the RCP6.0 greenhouse gas concentration scenario by more than an order of magnitude (0.9 % compared to 11.7 %). This finding indicates a highly uncertain future for both flood-prone communities and decision makers in the context of climate change.
Published: 2020
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32. Impacts of land use change and atmospheric CO$_2$ on gross primary productivity (GPP), evaporation, and climate in Southern Amazon

Author: Luiz F. C. Rezende, Aline Anderson de Castro, Celso Von Randow, Romina Ruscica, Boris Sakschewski, Phillip Papastefanou, Nicolas Viovy, Kirsten Thonicke, Anna Sörensson, Anja Rammig, Iracema F. A. Cavalcanti, National Institute for Space Research [Sao José dos Campos] (INPE), Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas [Buenos Aires] (CONICET), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne] (TUM), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (INPE), and Ministério da Ciência, Tecnologia e Inovação
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Atmospheric Science, Geophysics, Space and Planetary Science, Earth and Planetary Sciences (miscellaneous), [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment
Abstract: International audience; Recent publications indicate that the Amazon may be acting more as a carbon source than a sink in some regions. Moreover, the Amazon is a source of moisture for other regions in the continent, and deforestation over the years may be reducing this function. In this work, we analyze the impacts of elevated CO2 (eCO2) and land use change (LUC) on gross primary productivity (GPP) and evaporation in the southern Amazon (7°S 14°S, 66°W 51°W), which suffered strong anthropogenic influence in the period of 1981‒2010. We ran four dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs), isolating historical CO2, constant CO2, LUC, and potential natural vegetation scenarios with three climate variable data sets: precipitation, temperature, and shortwave radiation. We compared the outputs to five “observational” data sets obtained through eddy covariance, remote sensing, meteorological measurements, and machine learning. The results indicate that eCO2 may have offset deforestation, with GPP increasing by ∼13.5% and 9.3% (dry and rainy seasons, respectively). After isolating the LUC effect, a reduction in evaporation of ∼4% and ∼1.2% (dry and rainy seasons, respectively) was observed. The analysis of forcings in subregions under strong anthropogenic impact revealed a reduction in precipitation of ∼15 and 30 mm, and a temperature rise of 1°C and 0.6°C (dry and rainy seasons, respectively). Differences in the implementation of plant physiology and leaf area index in the DGVMs introduced some uncertainties in the interpretation of the results. Nevertheless, we consider that it was an important exercise given the relevance.
Published: 2022
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33. Concurrent Effects between Geomagnetic Storms and Magnetospheric Substorms

Author: Vincenzo CARBONE, Reik Donner, Tommaso Alberti, Giuseppe CONSOLINI, Davide Faranda, Paola DE MICHELIS, Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica (INAF), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), London Mathematical Laboratory, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia - Sezione di Roma (INGV), Istituto Nazionale di Geofisica e Vulcanologia, HSMD Hochschule Magdeburg-Stendal, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Università della Calabria - Laboratorio di documentazione (UNICAL - L@bdoc), and Università della Calabria [Arcavacata di Rende] (Unical)
Subjects: geomagnetic indices, space weather, [SDU.ASTR]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Astrophysics [astro-ph], Physics::Space Physics, magnetospheric substorms, General Physics and Astronomy, geomagnetic storms, Physics::Geophysics
Abstract: International audience; An accurate understanding of dissimilarities in geomagnetic variability between quiet and disturbed periods has the potential to vastly improve space weather diagnosis. In this work, we exploit some recently developed methods of dynamical system theory to provide new insights and conceptual ideas in space weather science. In particular, we study the co-variation and recurrence statistics of two geomagnetic indices, SYM-H and AL, that measure the intensity of the globally symmetric component of the equatorial electrojet and that of the westward auroral electrojet, respectively. We find that the number of active degrees of freedom, required to describe the phase space dynamics of both indices, depends on the geomagnetic activity level. When the magnetospheric substorm activity, as monitored by the AL index, increases, the active number of degrees of freedom increases at high latitudes above the dimension obtained through classical time delay embedding methods. Conversely, a reduced number of degrees of freedom is observed during geomagnetic storms at low latitude by analysing the SYM-H index. By investigating time-dependent relations between both indices we find that a significant amount of information is shared between high and low latitude current systems originating from coupling mechanisms within the magnetosphere–ionosphere system as the result of a complex interplay between processes and phenomena of internal origin activated by the triggering of external source processes. Our observations support the idea that the near-Earth electromagnetic environment is a complex system far from an equilibrium.
Published: 2022
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34. Sea-level rise: from global perspectives to local services

Author: Durand, Gaël, van den Broeke, Michiel R., Le Cozannet, Goneri, Edwards, Tamsin L., Holland, Paul R., Jourdain, Nicolas C., Marzeion, Ben, Mottram, Ruth, Nicholls, Robert J., Pattyn, Frank, Paul, Frank, Slangen, Aimée B.A., Winkelmann, Ricarda, Burgard, Clara, van Calcar, Caroline J., Barré, Jean Baptiste, Bataille, Amélie, Chapuis, Anne, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Sub Dynamics Meteorology, Marine and Atmospheric Research, Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), UNIVERSITE GRENOBLE ALPES CNRS IRD GRENOBLE INP UMR IGE FRA, Partenaires IRSTEA, Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA), Utrecht University [Utrecht], Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM), King‘s College London, British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), University of Bremen, Danish Meteorological Institute (DMI), University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), Universität Zürich [Zürich] = University of Zurich (UZH), Royal Netherlands Institute for Sea Research (NIOZ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), University of Potsdam = Universität Potsdam, Delft University of Technology (TU Delft), University of Zurich, and Durand, Gaël
Subjects: Global and Planetary Change, 1104 Aquatic Science, Science, Greenland, General. Including nature conservation, geographical distribution, 2306 Global and Planetary Change, [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences, 2301 Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Ocean Engineering, QH1-199.5, sea-level rise, Aquatic Science, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), Oceanography, local impact, 10122 Institute of Geography, 2312 Water Science and Technology, 1910 Oceanography, glaciers, Antarctic, 910 Geography & travel, 2212 Ocean Engineering, Water Science and Technology
Abstract: Coastal areas are highly diverse, ecologically rich, regions of key socio-economic activity, and are particularly sensitive to sea- level change. Over most of the 20th century, global mean sea level has risen mainly due to warming and subsequent expansion of the upper ocean layers and the melting of glaciers and ice caps. Over the last three decades, increased mass loss of the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets has also started to contribute significantly to contemporary sea-level rise. The future mass loss of these ice sheets, which combined represent a sea-level rise potential of ~65 m, constitutes the main source of uncertainty in long-term (centennial to millennial) sea-level rise projections. Improved knowledge of the magnitude and rate of future sea-level change is therefore of utmost importance. Moreover, sea level does not change uniformly across the globe, and can differ greatly at both regional and local scales. The most appropriate and feasible sea level mitigation and adaptation measures in coastal regions strongly depend on local land use and associated risk aversion. Here, we advocate that addressing the problem of future sea-level rise and its impacts requires (i) bringing together a transdisciplinary scientific community, from climate and cryospheric scientists to coastal impact specialists, and (ii) interacting closely and iteratively with users and local stakeholders to co-design and co-build coastal climate services, including addressing the high-end risks. Following these principles, as also adopted in the EU project “Projecting sea-level rise: from projections to local implications” (PROTECT), we encourage the formation of research consortia that cover the entire knowledge chain. In this way global sea-level science can be linked to effective coastal climate services at the scale of risk and adaptation
Published: 2022
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35. What we talk about when we talk about seasonality – A transdisciplinary review

Author: Tobias Braun, Cameron A. Petrie, Thomas Opel, Cinthya Nava-Fernandez, Sebastian F. M. Breitenbach, Patrick Faulkner, Julie A. Hoggarth, Monica Ionita, Jessica L. Oster, Aurel Perşoiu, Keith M. Prufer, Carole Nehme, Saige Kelmelis, Camilla Francesca Brunello, Saija Saarni, Niklas Hausmann, Annabel Wolf, Ola Kwiecien, Chris Jazwa, Norbert Marwan, Gerd Helle, University of Northumbria at Newcastle [United Kingdom], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Earth Surface Geochemistry [Postdam], GeoForschungsZentrum - Helmholtz-Zentrum Potsdam (GFZ), The University of Sydney, Römisch-Germanisches Zentralmuseum Mainz, Leibniz-Forschungsinstitut für Archäologie, Baylor University, Emil Racoviță Institute of Speleology (ERIS), Romanian Academy, University of Nevada [Reno], University of South Dakota [Vermillion] (USD), Ruhr University Bochum (RUB), Identités et Différenciation de l'Environnement des Espaces et des Sociétés (IDEES), Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université Le Havre Normandie (ULH), Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU)-Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Rouen Normandie (UNIROUEN), Normandie Université (NU), Alfred Wegener Institute Helmholtz Centre for Polar and Marine Research (AWI), Vanderbilt University [Nashville], University Stefan cel Mare of Suceava (USU), University of Cambridge [UK] (CAM), The University of New Mexico [Albuquerque], University of Helsinki, Identité et Différenciation de l’Espace, de l’Environnement et des Sociétés (IDEES), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche Interdisciplinaire Homme et Société (IRIHS), and Normandie Université (NU)-Université de Caen Normandie (UNICAEN)
Subjects: Historical climatology, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Stalagmite, F800, Permafrost, 01 natural sciences, [SHS]Humanities and Social Sciences, 03 medical and health sciences, Ice core, medicine, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 0303 health sciences, geography, Humid continental climate, geography.geographical_feature_category, Varve, Global warming, 15. Life on land, Seasonality, medicine.disease, [STAT]Statistics [stat], 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, General Earth and Planetary Sciences, Environmental science, Physical geography
Abstract: The role of seasonality is indisputable in climate and ecosystem dynamics. Seasonal temperature and precipitation variability are of vital importance for the availability of food, water, shelter, migration routes, and raw materials. Thus, understanding past climatic and environmental changes at seasonal scale is equally important for unearthing the history and for predicting the future of human societies under global warming scenarios. Alas, in palaeoenvironmental research, the term ‘seasonality change’ is often used liberally without scrutiny or explanation as to which seasonal parameter has changed and how.\ud \ud Here we provide fundamentals of climate seasonality and break it down into external (insolation changes) and internal (atmospheric CO2 concentration) forcing, and regional and local and modulating factors (continentality, altitude, large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns). Further, we present a brief overview of the archives with potentially annual/seasonal resolution (historical and instrumental records, marine invertebrate growth increments, stalagmites, tree rings, lake sediments, permafrost, cave ice, and ice cores) and discuss archive-specific challenges and opportunities, and how these limit or foster the use of specific archives in archaeological research.\ud \ud Next, we address the need for adequate data-quality checks, involving both archive-specific nature (e.g., limited sampling resolution or seasonal sampling bias) and analytical uncertainties. To this end, we present a broad spectrum of carefully selected statistical methods which can be applied to analyze annually- and seasonally-resolved time series. We close the manuscript by proposing a framework for transparent communication of seasonality-related research across different communities.
Published: 2022
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36. Scale dependence of fractal dimension in deterministic and stochastic Lorenz-63 systems

Author: T. Alberti, D. Faranda, V. Lucarini, R. V. Donner, B. Dubrulle, F. Daviaud, Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica (INAF), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), London Mathematical Laboratory, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Reading (UOR), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Service de physique de l'état condensé (SPEC - UMR3680), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Systèmes Physiques Hors-équilibre, hYdrodynamique, éNergie et compleXes (SPHYNX), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Rayonnement Matière de Saclay (IRAMIS), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay, Direction de Recherche Fondamentale (CEA) (DRF (CEA)), and Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)
Subjects: Applied Mathematics, [NLIN.NLIN-CD]Nonlinear Sciences [physics]/Chaotic Dynamics [nlin.CD], General Physics and Astronomy, Statistical and Nonlinear Physics, Mathematical Physics
Abstract: Many natural systems show emergent phenomena at different scales, leading to scaling regimes with signatures of deterministic chaos at large scales and an apparently random behavior at small scales. These features are usually investigated quantitatively by studying the properties of the underlying attractor, the compact object asymptotically hosting the trajectories of the system with their invariant density in the phase space. This multi-scale nature of natural systems makes it practically impossible to get a clear picture of the attracting set. Indeed, it spans over a wide range of spatial scales and may even change in time due to non-stationary forcing. Here, we combine an adaptive decomposition method with extreme value theory to study the properties of the instantaneous scale-dependent dimension, which has been recently introduced to characterize such temporal and spatial scale-dependent attractors in turbulence and astrophysics. To provide a quantitative analysis of the properties of this metric, we test it on the well-known low-dimensional deterministic Lorenz-63 system perturbed with additive or multiplicative noise. We demonstrate that the properties of the invariant set depend on the scale we are focusing on and that the scale-dependent dimensions can discriminate between additive and multiplicative noise despite the fact that the two cases have exactly the same stationary invariant measure at large scales. The proposed formalism can be generally helpful to investigate the role of multi-scale fluctuations within complex systems, allowing us to deal with the problem of characterizing the role of stochastic fluctuations across a wide range of physical systems.
Published: 2023
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37. Evapotranspiration trends and variability in southeastern South America: The roles of land‐cover change and precipitation variability

Author: Ruscica, Romina, Sörensson, Anna, Diaz, Leandro, Vera, Carolina, Castro, Aline, Papastefanou, Phillip, Rammig, Anja, Rezende, Luiz, Sakschewski, Boris, Thonicke, Kirsten, Viovy, Nicolas, Randow, Celso, Universidad de Buenos Aires [Buenos Aires] (UBA), National Institute for Space Research [Sao José dos Campos] (INPE), Technische Universität Munchen - Université Technique de Munich [Munich, Allemagne] (TUM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), CLIMAX Project was funded by Belmont Forum/ANR-15-JCL/-0002-01, BMBF FKZ 01LP1610A, and FAPESP-BELMONT-Process 2015/50687-8, Agencia Nacional dePromoci on Científica y Tecnol ogica (ANPCyT), Argen-tina [PICTs 2017-1406, 2018-02511], University of BuenosAires, Argentina [UBACyT20020170100428BA], SÃOPAULO STATE RESEARCH FOUNDATION [grants2015/50687-8 and 2017/03048-5] and National Councilfor Scientific and Technological Development [301084/2020-3]. ORCHIDEE simulations were performed usingHPC resources from GENCI-TGCC [2018-6328], and ANR-15-JCLI-0002,CLIMAX,Climate Services Through Knowledge Co-Production: A Euro-South American Initiative For Strengthening Societal Adaptation Response to Extreme Events(2015)
Subjects: Vegetation models, [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Precipitation variability, Evapotranspiration, Land-cover changes, Trends analysis, Dipole evolution, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, South America climate
Abstract: International audience; Southeastern South America is subject to considerable precipitation variability on seasonal to decadal timescales and has undergone very heavy land-cover changes (LCCs) since the middle of the past century. The influence of local LCC and precipitation as drivers of regional evapotranspiration (ET) long-term trends and variability remains largely unknown in the region. Here, ensembles of stand-alone dynamic global vegetation models (DGVMs) with different atmospheric forcings are used to disentangle the influence of those two drivers on austral summer ET from 1950 to 2010. This paper examines the influence of both the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the dipole-like first-mode of southeastern South American precipitation variability (EOF1) on regional ET. We found that in the lower La Plata Basin, ET was driven by precipitation variability and showed a positive summer trend. Moreover, the region showed marked seasonal anomalies during El Niño and La Niña summers but mainly during EOF1 phases. On the contrary, in the upper La Plata Basin, LCCs forced the negative summer ET trend and particularly reduced the summer anomalies of the late 1990s, a period of ENSO and EOF1-positive phases. In the South Atlantic Convergence Zone region, the high ET uncertainty across ensemble members impeded finding robust results, which highlights the importance of using multiple DGVMs and atmospheric forcings instead of relying on single model/forcing results.
Published: 2022
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38. The potential impacts of climate change on agriculture and fisheries production in 72 tropical coastal communities

Author: Cinner, Joshua Eli, Caldwell, Iain, Thiault, Lauric, Ben, John, Blanchard, Julia, Coll, Marta, Diedrich, Amy, Eddy, Tyler, Everett, Jason, Folberth, Christian, Gascuel, Didier, Guiet, Jerome, Gurney, Georgina, Heneghan, Ryan, Jägermeyr, Jonas, Jiddawi, Narriman, Lahari, Rachael, Kuange, John, Liu, Wenfeng, Maury, Olivier, Müller, Christoph, Novaglio, Camilla, Palacios-Abrantes, Juliano, Petrik, Colleen, Rabearisoa, Ando, Tittensor, Derek, Wamukota, Andrew, Pollnac, Richard, ARC Centre of Excellence for Coral Reef Studies (CoralCoE), James Cook University (JCU), Centre de recherches insulaires et observatoire de l'environnement (CRIOBE), Université de Perpignan Via Domitia (UPVD)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Institute for Marine and Antarctic Studies and Centre for Marine Socioecology, University of Tasmania [Hobart, Australia] (UTAS), Instituto de Ciencia de Materiales de Aragón [Saragoza, España] (ICMA-CSIC), University of Zaragoza - Universidad de Zaragoza [Zaragoza], College of Science & Engineering, James Cook University, Smithfield, Qld, Australia, Centre for Fisheries Ecosystems Research (CFER), Memorial University of Newfoundland = Université Memorial de Terre-Neuve [St. John's, Canada] (MUN), School of Mathematics and Physics [Brisbane], University of Queensland [Brisbane], International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Dynamique et durabilité des écosystèmes : de la source à l’océan (DECOD), Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Department of Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences [Los Angeles] (AOS), University of California [Los Angeles] (UCLA), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), School of Mathematical Sciences, Queensland University of Technology, School of Mathematical Sciences [Brisbane], Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT)-Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT), NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS), NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), Department of Aquatic Sciences and Fisheries Technology (University of Dar es Salaam), University of Dar es Salaam (UDSM), Center for Agricultural Water Research in China, China Agricultural University (CAU), Laboratoire Service d' Experimentations Aquacoles [Palavas les Flots] (LSEA MARBEC), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Center for Limnology, University of Wisconsin-Madison, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California [San Diego] (UC San Diego), Department of Ecology and Evolutionary Biology [Santa Cruz], University of California [Santa Cruz] (UC Santa Cruz), Department of Biology (Dalhousie University), Dalhousie University [Halifax], Pwani University, Kenya, and Department of Fisheries, Animal and Veterinary Sciences, College of the Environment and Life Sciences, University of Rhode Island, Kingston
Subjects: [SDV.EE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology, environment, Climate Action, Zero Hunger
Abstract: Climate change is expected to profoundly affect key food production sectors, including fisheries and agriculture. However, the potential impacts of climate change on these sectors are rarely considered jointly, and when they are, it is often at a national scale, which can mask substantial variability in how communities will be affected. Here, we combine socioeconomic surveys and intersectoral multi-model simulation outputs to conduct a sub-national analysis of the potential impacts of climate change on fisheries and agriculture in 72 coastal communities across five Indo-Pacific countries. Our study reveals three key findings: First, we find that the overall potential losses to fisheries is higher than potential losses to agriculture, but there is substantial within-country variability. Second, while more than two-thirds of locations will bear a double burden of potential losses to both fisheries and agriculture simultaneously, mitigation could reduce the proportion of places facing a double burden. Third, lower socioeconomic status communities are more likely to experience potential impacts than higher socioeconomic status communities.
Published: 2022

39. Global irrigation contribution to wheat and maize yield

Author: Joshua Elliot, Erwin Schmid, Thomas A. M. Pugh, Feng Zhou, Jonas Jägermeyr, Xuhui Wang, David Makowski, Laurent Li, Wenfeng Liu, Delphine Deryng, Philippe Ciais, Hui Yang, Christoph Müller, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Chenzhi Wang, Stefan Olin, Su-Jong Jeong, Christian Folberth, James S. Gerber, Shilong Piao, Ashwan Reddy, Patrice Dumas, Peking University [Beijing], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), University of Chicago, Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Ludwig-Maximilians-Universität München (LMU), China Agricultural University (CAU), Agronomie, AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Lund University [Lund], University of Maryland [College Park], University of Maryland System, Seoul National University [Seoul] (SNU), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA-Paris), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), and Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay
Subjects: Irrigation, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Science, Yield (finance), [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, 0208 environmental biotechnology, General Physics and Astronomy, Climate change, Water supply, 02 engineering and technology, Agricultural engineering, 01 natural sciences, Article, General Biochemistry, Genetics and Molecular Biology, Rainfed agriculture, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, [STAT.AP]Statistics [stat]/Applications [stat.AP], Multidisciplinary, business.industry, Crop yield, Yield gap, General Chemistry, 15. Life on land, 6. Clean water, 020801 environmental engineering, Environmental sciences, 13. Climate action, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Environmental science, business, Agroecology, Water use
Abstract: Irrigation is the largest sector of human water use and an important option for increasing crop production and reducing drought impacts. However, the potential for irrigation to contribute to global crop yields remains uncertain. Here, we quantify this contribution for wheat and maize at global scale by developing a Bayesian framework integrating empirical estimates and gridded global crop models on new maps of the relative difference between attainable rainfed and irrigated yield (ΔY). At global scale, ΔY is 34 ± 9% for wheat and 22 ± 13% for maize, with large spatial differences driven more by patterns of precipitation than that of evaporative demand. Comparing irrigation demands with renewable water supply, we find 30–47% of contemporary rainfed agriculture of wheat and maize cannot achieve yield gap closure utilizing current river discharge, unless more water diversion projects are set in place, putting into question the potential of irrigation to mitigate climate change impacts., There are big uncertainties in the contribution of irrigation to crop yields. Here, the authors use Bayesian model averaging to combine statistical and process-based models and quantify the contribution of irrigation for wheat and maize yields, finding that irrigation alone cannot close yield gaps for a large fraction of global rainfed agriculture.
Published: 2021
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40. Aligning artificial intelligence with climate change mitigation

Author: Lynn H. Kaack, Priya L. Donti, Emma Strubell, George Kamiya, Felix Creutzig, David Rolnick, Data Science Lab, Hertie School, Hertie School of Governance [Berlin], Department of Humanities, Social and Political Sciences [ETH Zürich] (D-GESS), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Institute of Science, Technology, and Policy [ETH Zürich], School of Computer Science, Carnegie Mellon University, Carnegie Mellon University [Pittsburgh] (CMU), Department of Engineering and Public Policy, Carnegie Mellon University, International Energy Agency, Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Sustainability Economics of Human Settlements, Technical University Berlin, Technical University Berlin, School of Computer Science, McGill University, McGill University = Université McGill [Montréal, Canada], Mila - Quebec AI Institute, and Kaack, Lynn
Subjects: [INFO.INFO-AI] Computer Science [cs]/Artificial Intelligence [cs.AI], [SHS.ENVIR] Humanities and Social Sciences/Environmental studies, [SHS.ENVIR]Humanities and Social Sciences/Environmental studies, [SDE.ES] Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Environmental Science (miscellaneous), [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society, Social Sciences (miscellaneous), [INFO.INFO-AI]Computer Science [cs]/Artificial Intelligence [cs.AI]
Abstract: Assessing and shaping the effects of artificial intelligence (AI) and machine learning (ML) on climate change mitigation demands a concerted effort across research, policy, and industry. However, there is great uncertainty regarding how ML may affect present and future greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. This is owed in part to insufficient characterization of the different mechanisms through which such emissions impacts may occur, posing difficulties in measuring and forecasting them. We therefore introduce a systematic framework for describing ML's effects on GHG emissions, comprising three categories: (A) compute-related impacts, (B) immediate impacts of applying ML, and (C) system-level impacts. Using this framework, we assess and prioritize research and data needs for impact assessment and scenario analysis, and identify important policy levers.
Published: 2021

41. Instabilities of low-latitude easterly jets in the presence of moist convection and topography and related cyclogenesis, in a simple atmospheric model

Author: Vladimir Zeitlin, Masoud Rostami, Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), and Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, SIMPLE (dark matter experiment), Low latitude, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, [SDU.STU.GP]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph], Computational Mechanics, Astronomy and Astrophysics, Atmospheric model, [SDU.STU.ME]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Meteorology, Atmospheric sciences, 01 natural sciences, 010305 fluids & plasmas, Geophysics, 13. Climate action, Geochemistry and Petrology, Mechanics of Materials, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, 0103 physical sciences, Cyclogenesis, Moist convection, [PHYS.MECA.MEFL]Physics [physics]/Mechanics [physics]/Fluid mechanics [physics.class-ph], Geology, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences
Abstract: International audience
Published: 2021
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42. French crop yield, area and production data for ten staple crops from 1900 to 2018 at county resolution

Author: Bernhard Schauberger, Hiromi Kato, Tomomichi Kato, Daiki Watanabe, Philippe Ciais, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Applied Sciences of Weihenstephan, Hokkaido University [Sapporo, Japan], ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), and Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, Statistics and Probability, Science, Library and Information Sciences, Statistics, Probability and Uncertainty, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, Computer Science Applications, Education, Information Systems
Abstract: Agricultural performance is influenced by environmental conditions, management decisions and economic circumstances. It is important to quantify their respective contribution to allow for detecting major hazards to production, projecting future yields under climate change and deriving adaptation options. For this purpose, time series of agricultural yields with high spatial and long-term temporal resolution are a primary requisite. Here we present a data set of crop performance in France, one of Europe’s major crop producers. The data set comprises ten crops (barley, maize, oats, potatoes, rapeseed, sugarbeet, sunflower, durum wheat, soft wheat and wine) and covers the years 1900 to 2018. It contains harvested area, production and yield data for all 96 French départements (i.e. counties or NUTS3 level) with a total number of 375,264 data points. Entries until 1988 have been digitized manually from statistical yearbooks. The technical validation indicates a high consistency of the data set within itself and with external resources. The data set may contribute to an enhanced understanding of the manifold influences on agricultural performance.
Published: 2021
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43. Predicting the effect of confinement on the COVID-19 spread using machine learning enriched with satellite air pollution observations

Author: Xu Tang, Jianmin Chen, Tun Lu, Haidong Kan, Philippe Ciais, Renhe Zhang, Ivan A. Janssens, Rong Wang, Jordi Sardans, Lin Wang, Xiaofan Xing, Josep Peñuelas, Xiangrong Wang, Didier A. Hauglustaine, Ruipu Yang, Yves Balkanski, Yijing Wang, Weibing Wang, Lidia Morawska, Guy Brasseur, Junji Cao, Yuankang Xiong, Nico Bauer, Dongsheng Li, Yifei Deng, Olivier Boucher, Shanghai Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Particle Pollution and Prevention (LAP3), Fudan University [Shanghai], Microsoft Research Asia, Institute of Atmospheric Physics [Beijing] (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences [Beijing] (CAS), CREAF - Centre for Ecological Research and Applied Forestries, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), University of Antwerp (UA), Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, International Laboratory for Air Quality and Health [Brisbane], Queensland University of Technology [Brisbane] (QUT), ANR-15-CE04-0005, European Space Agency, ESA: 725546, ESRIN/4000123002/18/I-NB, National Natural Science Foundation of China, NSFC: 18107, 41877506, Generalitat de Catalunya: AGAUR-2020PANDE00117, ACKNOWLEDGMENTS. We thank H. J. Yu for important comments and J. H. Pan for help in compiling the epidemiological data. This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41877506), the Fudan’s Wangdao Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program (18107), the Chinese Thousand Youth Talents Program, the PolEASIA-ANR project (ANR-15-CE04-0005), and the Australia-China Centre for Air Quality Science and Management. J.P. and J.S. acknowledge financial support from the Catalan Government grant AGAUR-2020PANDE00117. P.C. acknowledges support from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative ESA-CCI RECCAP2 project (ESRIN/4000123002/18/I-NB) and the Observation-based system for monitoring and verification of greenhouse gases project (VERIFY, grant 725546)., Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Natural Science Foundation of China, Fudan University, Agence Nationale de la Recherche (France), Generalitat de Catalunya, European Space Agency, Xing, Xiaofan [0000-0002-0334-6408], Wang, Rong [0000-0003-1962-0165], Wang, Weibing [0000-0002-4497-5251], Peñuelas, Josep [0000-0002-7215-0150], Ciais, Philippe [0000-0001-8560-4943], Bauer, Nico [0000-0002-0211-4162], Morawska, Lidia [0000-0002-0594-9683], Sardans, Jordi [0000-0003-2478-0219], Wang, Lin [0000-0002-4905-3432], Chen, Jianmin [0000-0001-5859-3070], Zhang, Renhe [0000-0001-7750-8679], Xing, Xiaofan, Wang, Rong, Wang, Weibing, Peñuelas, Josep, Ciais, Philippe, Bauer, Nico, Morawska, Lidia, Sardans, Jordi, Wang, Lin, Chen, Jianmin, and Zhang, Renhe
Subjects: China, 2019-20 coronavirus outbreak, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19), [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], Air pollution, Satellite observation, Pandemic management, medicine.disease_cause, 7. Clean energy, 01 natural sciences, Surrogate data, Troposphere, 03 medical and health sciences, Machine learning, medicine, Humans, Baseline (configuration management), Biology, 030304 developmental biology, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 0303 health sciences, Multidisciplinary, Scenario based, COVID-19, 3. Good health, Socioeconomic Factors, 13. Climate action, Climatology, Physical Sciences, Environmental science, Satellite, Engineering sciences. Technology
Abstract: The real-time monitoring of reductions of economic activity by containment measures and its effect on the transmission of the coronavirus (COVID-19) is a critical unanswered question. We inferred 5,642 weekly activity anomalies from the meteorology-adjusted differences in spaceborne tropospheric NO2 column concentrations after the 2020 COVID-19 outbreak relative to the baseline from 2016 to 2019. Two satellite observations reveal reincreasing economic activity associated with lifting control measures that comes together with accelerating COVID-19 cases before the winter of 2020/2021. Application of the near-real-time satellite NO2 observations produces a much better prediction of the deceleration of COVID-19 cases than applying the Oxford Government Response Tracker, the Public Health and Social Measures, or human mobility data as alternative predictors. A convergent cross-mapping suggests that economic activity reduction inferred from NO2 is a driver of case deceleration in most of the territories. This effect, however, is not linear, while further activity reductions were associated with weaker deceleration. Over the winter of 2020/2021, nearly 1 million daily COVID-19 cases could have been avoided by optimizing the timing and strength of activity reduction relative to a scenario based on the real distribution. Our study shows how satellite observations can provide surrogate data for activity reduction during the COVID-19 pandemic and monitor the effectiveness of containment to the pandemic before vaccines become widely available., This work was supported by the National Natural Science Foundation of China (41877506), the Fudan’s Wangdao Undergraduate Research Opportunities Program (18107), the Chinese Thousand Youth Talents Program, the PolEASIA-ANR project (ANR15-CE04-0005), and the Australia-China Centre for Air Quality Science and Management. J.P. and J.S. acknowledge financial support from the Catalan Government grant AGAUR-2020PANDE00117. P.C. acknowledges support from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative ESA-CCI RECCAP2 project (ESRIN/4000123002/18/I-NB) and the Observation-based system for monitoring and verification of greenhouse gases project (VERIFY, grant 725546).
Published: 2021
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44. No historical evidence for increased vulnerability of French crop production to climatic hazards

Author: Philippe Ciais, David Makowski, Tamara Ben-Ari, Bernhard Schauberger, Julien Boé, Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA Paris-Saclay), AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Agronomie, Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes [Toulouse] (CECI), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales [Toulouse] (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Paris (UP), Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA-Paris), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-AgroParisTech-Université Paris-Saclay, CECI, CERFACS / CNRS (CECI), and Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Yield (finance), [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Vulnerability, Climate change, Multi crop, Historical evidence, 01 natural sciences, Exposure, Crop, Sensitivity, Long-term, Crop production, [MATH.MATH-ST]Mathematics [math]/Statistics [math.ST], Weather, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, 2. Zero hunger, Global and Planetary Change, Adverse weather, Agroforestry, fungi, food and beverages, Forestry, Non-parametric, Hazard, 13. Climate action, Environmental science, Agronomy and Crop Science, 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: International audience; Recent adverse weather events have questioned the stability of crop production systems. Here, we assessed the vulnerability of eleven major crops in France between 1959 and 2018 as a function of climate, crafting a novel hazard framework that combines exposure and sensitivity to weather-related hazards. Exposure was defined as the frequency of hazardous climate conditions. Sensitivity of crops was estimated by the yield response to single and compound hazards, using observed yields available at département (county) level. Vulnerability was computed as the exposure-weighted average of crop sensitivities. Our results do not reveal any evidence for historically increased vulnerability of French crop production. Sensitivity to adverse weather events, and thus the overall vulnerability, has significantly decreased for six of the eleven crops between 1959 and 2018, and shown no significant decline or remained stable for the other five. Yet compound hazards can induce yield losses of 30% or more for several crops. Moreover, as heat-related hazards are projected to become more frequent with climate change, crop vulnerability may rise again in the future.
Published: 2021
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45. Towards a New Generation of Trait-Flexible Vegetation Models

Author: Koen Kramer, Sylvie Oddou-Muratorio, Friedrich J. Bohn, Christopher P. O. Reyer, Ian J. Wright, Florian Hartig, Santiago Sabaté, Fabio Berzaghi, Tanja G. M. Sanders, Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Wageningen University, Ecologie des Forêts Méditerranéennes (URFM), Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Helmholtz Zentrum für Umweltforschung = Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research (UFZ), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), University of Barcelona, Centre for Ecological Research and Forestry Applications (CREAF), Thuenen Institute of Forest Ecosystems, Partenaires INRAE, 845265,DP170103410,01LS1711A,FP1304, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR)
Subjects: 0106 biological sciences, Range (biology), Climate Change, [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes, Bos- en Landschapsecologie, Biodiversity, Climate change, Biology, 010603 evolutionary biology, 01 natural sciences, eco-evolution, medicine, Forest and Landscape Ecology, Ecology, Evolution, Behavior and Systematics, Vegetatie, Genetic diversity, Vegetation, Ecology, Biosphere, Global change, Plants, 15. Life on land, plant genetics, PE&RC, Biological Evolution, vegetation modeling, Phenotype, intraspecific variation, 13. Climate action, plant traits, Trait, Vegetatie, Bos- en Landschapsecologie, Vegetation, Forest and Landscape Ecology, medicine.symptom, Vegetation (pathology), 010606 plant biology & botany
Abstract: International audience; Plant trait variability, emerging from eco-evolutionary dynamics that range from alleles to macroecological scales, is one of the most elusive, but possibly most consequential, aspects of biodiversity. Plasticity, epigenetics, and genetic diversity are major determinants of how plants will respond to climate change, yet these processes are rarely represented in current vegetation models. Here, we provide an overview of the challenges associated with understanding the causes and consequences of plant trait variability, and review current developments to include plasticity and evolutionary mechanisms in vegetation models. We also present a roadmap of research priorities to develop a next generation of vegetation models with flexible traits. Including trait variability in vegetation models is necessary to better represent biosphere responses to global change.
Published: 2020
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46. State-of-the-art global models underestimate impacts from climate extremes

Author: Schewe, J., Gosling, S., Reyer, C., Zhao, F., Ciais, P., Elliott, J., Francois, L., Huber, V., Lotze, H., Seneviratne I, S., van Vliet, M., Vautard, R., Wada, Y., Breuer, L., Buechner, M., Carozza, D., Chang, J., Coll, M., Deryng, D., de Wit, A., Eddy, T., Folberth, C., Frieler, K., Friend, A., Gerten, D., Gudmundsson, L., Hanasaki, N., Ito, A., Khabarov, N., Kim, H., Lawrence, P., Morfopoulos, C., Mueller, C., Schmied, H., Orth, R., Ostberg, S., Pokhrel, Y., Pugh, T., Sakurai, G., Satoh, Y., Schmid, E., Stacke, T., https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4637-5337, Steenbeek, J., Steinkamp, J., Tang, Q., Tian, H., Tittensor, D., Volkholz, J., Wang, X., Warszawski, L., Potsdam-Institut für Klimafolgenforschung (PIK), University of Nottingham, UK (UON), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), East China Normal University [Shangaï] (ECNU), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Chicago, Institut d'Astrophysique et de Géophysique [Liège], Université de Liège, Dalhousie University [Halifax], Institute for Atmospheric and Climate Science [Zürich] (IAC), Eidgenössische Technische Hochschule - Swiss Federal Institute of Technology [Zürich] (ETH Zürich), Wageningen University and Research [Wageningen] (WUR), Extrèmes : Statistiques, Impacts et Régionalisation (ESTIMR), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis [Laxenburg] (IIASA), Inst Landscape Ecol & Resources Management, Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen = Justus Liebig University (JLU), Université du Québec à Montréal = University of Québec in Montréal (UQAM), MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Tyndall Centre for Climate Change Research, University of East Anglia [Norwich] (UEA), Wageningen University and Research Centre (WUR), Department of Geography, University of Liverpool, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Geosciences [Oslo], Faculty of Mathematics and Natural Sciences [Oslo], University of Oslo (UiO)-University of Oslo (UiO), National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES), Institute of Industrial Science (IIS), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Groupe Immunité des Muqueuses et Agents Pathogènes (GIMAP), Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM), Goethe-Universität Frankfurt am Main, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering [Ann Arbor] (CEE), University of Michigan [Ann Arbor], University of Michigan System-University of Michigan System, Institute for Meteorology and Climate Research (IMK), Karlsruhe Institute of Technology (KIT), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien = University of Natural Resources and Life [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), Helmholtz-Zentrum Geesthacht (GKSS), Ecopath International Initiative Research Association, Shandong Agricultural University (SDAU), Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique (UMR 8539) (LMD), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Département des Géosciences - ENS Paris, École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Justus-Liebig-Universität Gießen (JLU), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD), Université Jean Monnet [Saint-Étienne] (UJM), Universität für Bodenkultur Wien [Vienne, Autriche] (BOKU), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS Paris), Schewe, Jacob [0000-0001-9455-4159], Gosling, Simon N [0000-0001-5973-6862], Ciais, Philippe [0000-0001-8560-4943], Lotze, Heike K [0000-0001-6258-1304], Seneviratne, Sonia I [0000-0001-9528-2917], van Vliet, Michelle TH [0000-0002-2597-8422], Vautard, Robert [0000-0001-5544-9903], Wada, Yoshihide [0000-0003-4770-2539], Breuer, Lutz [0000-0001-9720-1076], Carozza, David A [0000-0001-7343-9442], Chang, Jinfeng [0000-0003-4463-7778], Coll, Marta [0000-0001-6235-5868], de Wit, Allard [0000-0002-5517-6404], Eddy, Tyler D [0000-0002-2833-9407], Folberth, Christian [0000-0002-6738-5238], Gerten, Dieter [0000-0002-6214-6991], Gudmundsson, Lukas [0000-0003-3539-8621], Hanasaki, Naota [0000-0002-5092-7563], Ito, Akihiko [0000-0001-5265-0791], Khabarov, Nikolay [0000-0001-5372-4668], Kim, Hyungjun [0000-0003-1083-8416], Lawrence, Peter [0000-0002-4843-4903], Müller, Christoph [0000-0002-9491-3550], Müller Schmied, Hannes [0000-0001-5330-9923], Ostberg, Sebastian [0000-0002-2368-7015], Pokhrel, Yadu [0000-0002-1367-216X], Steenbeek, Jeroen [0000-0002-7878-8075], Steinkamp, Jörg [0000-0002-7861-8789], Tang, Qiuhong [0000-0002-0886-6699], Tian, Hanqin [0000-0002-1806-4091], Apollo - University of Cambridge Repository, European Commission, and Federal Ministry of Education and Research (Germany)
Subjects: Earth Observation and Environmental Informatics, WIMEK, 0602 Ecology, [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology, Science, Aardobservatie en omgevingsinformatica, Life Science, Water Systems and Global Change, lcsh:Q, PE&RC, lcsh:Science, Article
Abstract: 14 pages, 6 figures, supplementary information .-- Data availability. Simulation data from gridded impact models is available through https://esg.pik-potsdam.de/projects/isimip2a/ and citable using the following DOIs: https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.002 (terrestrial ecosystems); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.006 (agriculture); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2017.010 (hydrology); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.004 (marine ecosystems, regional); https://doi.org/10.5880/PIK.2018.005 (marine ecosystems, global). The city-level mortality model data and country-level hydropower model data are available from the authors upon request, Global impact models represent process-level understanding of how natural and human systems may be affected by climate change. Their projections are used in integrated assessments of climate change. Here we test, for the first time, systematically across many important systems, how well such impact models capture the impacts of extreme climate conditions. Using the 2003 European heat wave and drought as a historical analogue for comparable events in the future, we find that a majority of models underestimate the extremeness of impacts in important sectors such as agriculture, terrestrial ecosystems, and heat-related human mortality, while impacts on water resources and hydropower are overestimated in some river basins; and the spread across models is often large. This has important implications for economic assessments of climate change impacts that rely on these models. It also means that societal risks from future extreme events may be greater than previously thought, The work was supported within the framework of the Leibniz Competition (SAW-2013-PIK-5), the EU FP7 project HELIX (grant no. FP7–603864–2), the FP7 project IMPACT2C (grant agreement#282746) and by the German Federal Ministry of Education and Research (BMBF, grant no. 01LS1201A1)
Published: 2019
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47. Insights on Nitrogen and Phosphorus Co‐Limitation in Global Croplands From Theoretical and Modeling Fertilization Experiments

Author: Thomas Nesme, Nathaniel D. Mueller, Nicolas Vuichard, Sylvain Pellerin, Bruno Ringeval, Philippe Ciais, Daniel S. Goll, Laurent Augusto, Christoph Müller, Marko Kvakić, Xuhui Wang, Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (ISPA), Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Université Paris-Saclay-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Department of Earth System Science, University of California Irvine (UCI), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, Leibniz Association (PIK), Interactions Sol Plante Atmosphère (UMR ISPA), Ecole Nationale Supérieure des Sciences Agronomiques de Bordeaux-Aquitaine (Bordeaux Sciences Agro)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), ICOS-ATC (ICOS-ATC), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Modélisation des Surfaces et Interfaces Continentales (MOSAIC), Colorado State University [Fort Collins] (CSU), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Sino-French Institute for Earth System Science, College of Urban and Environmental Sciences, Peking University [Beijing], Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)
Subjects: Atmospheric Science, 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Soil nutrients, Nutrient interaction, [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio], chemistry.chemical_element, Soil science, Agricultural engineering, [SDV.SA.SDS]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Agricultural sciences/Soil study, 01 natural sciences, Nutrient, Human fertilization, cropland, nutrient interaction, Environmental Chemistry, Ecosystem, Liebig's law of the minimum, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science, Mathematics, 2. Zero hunger, nutrient limitation, Global and Planetary Change, Scale (chemistry), Phosphorus, Function (mathematics), 04 agricultural and veterinary sciences, 15. Life on land, Nitrogen, multiple limitation, chemistry, [SDE]Environmental Sciences, Liebig's law, 040103 agronomy & agriculture, 0401 agriculture, forestry, and fisheries
Abstract: Crossed fertilization additions are a common tool to assess nutrient interaction in a given ecosystem. Such fertilization experiments lead to the definition of nutrient interaction categories: e.g. simultaneous co-limitation, single resource response, etc. (Harpole et al., 2011). However, the implications of such categories in terms of nutrient interaction modeling are not clear. To this end, we developed a theoretical analysis of nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) fertilization experiments based on the computation of ratios between plant demand and soil supply for each nutrient. The theoretical analysis is developed following two mathematical formalisms of interaction: Liebig's law of minimum and multiple limitation hypothesis. As results of the theoretical framework, we defined the corresponding between most Harpole categories and the values of the limitation by each nutrient when considered alone in the control experiment (i.e. without additional nutrient supply). We showed that synergistic co-limitation could occur even using Liebig's formalism under certain conditions as a function of the amount of N and P added in fertilization experiments. We then applied our framework with global maps of soil supply and plant demand for croplands to achieve their potential yield. This allowed us to estimate the global occurrence of each limitation category, for each of the possible interaction formalism. We found that a true co-limitation could affect a large proportion of the global crop area (e.g. ~ 42 % for maize) if multiple limitation hypothesis is assumed. Our work clarifies the conditions required to achieve N and P co-limitation as function of the interaction formalism. Combined with compilation of field trials in cropland, our study would improve our understanding of nutrient limitation in cropland at the global scale.
Published: 2021
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48. Future sea level change under CMIP5 and CMIP6 scenarios from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets

Author: Antony J Payne, Sophie Nowicki, Ayako Abe-Ouchi, Cécile Agosta, Patrick M. Alexander, Torsten Albrecht, Xylar S Asay-Davis, Andy Aschwanden, Alice Barthel, Thomas J. Bracegirdle, Reinhard Calov, Christopher Chambers, Youngmin Choi, Richard I. Cullather, Joshua K Cuzzone, Christophe dumas, Tamsin Edwards, Denis Felikson, Xavier Fettweis, Benjamin Keith Galton-Fenzi, Heiko Goelzer, Rupert Gladstone, Nicholas R. Golledge, Jonathan M. Gregory, Ralf Greve, Tore Hattermann, Matthew J. Hoffman, Angelika Humbert, Philippe Huybrechts, Nicolas C Jourdain, Thomas Kleiner, Peter Kuipers Munneke, Eric Yves Larour, Sebastien Le clec'h, Victoria Lee, Gunter Leguy, William H. Lipscomb, Christopher M Little, Daniel P Lowry, Mathieu Morlighem, Isabel Nias, Frank Pattyn, Tyler Pelle, Stephen Price, Aurelien Quiquet, Ronja Reese, Martin Rückamp, Nicole -J. Schlegel, Helene Seroussi, Andrew Shepherd, Erika Simon, Donald A Slater, Robin Smith, Fiamma Straneo, Sainan Sun, Lev Tarasov, Luke Trusel, Jonas Van Breedam, Roderik S. W. van de Wal, Michiel R. van den Broeke, Ricarda Winkelmann, Chen Zhao, Tong Zhang, Thomas Zwinger, University of Bristol [Bristol], University at Buffalo [SUNY] (SUNY Buffalo), State University of New York (SUNY), The University of Tokyo (UTokyo), Laboratoire des Sciences du Climat et de l'Environnement [Gif-sur-Yvette] (LSCE), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Glaces et Continents, Climats et Isotopes Stables (GLACCIOS), Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ), Columbia University [New York], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), University of Alaska [Fairbanks] (UAF), British Antarctic Survey (BAS), Natural Environment Research Council (NERC), Hokkaido University Hospital [Sapporo], University of California [Irvine] (UCI), University of California, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC), California Institute of Technology (CALTECH), Modélisation du climat (CLIM), King‘s College London, Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ), Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA), Université libre de Bruxelles (ULB), This project received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 research and innovation program under Grant agree-ment No 869304, PROTECT contribu-tion number 4., Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of California [Irvine] (UC Irvine), University of California (UC), and Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )
Subjects: [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean, Atmosphere, 13. Climate action, Glaciologie, [SDU.ENVI]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Continental interfaces, environment, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Sciences exactes et naturelles
Abstract: Projections of the sea level contribution from the Greenland and Antarctic ice sheets (GrIS and AIS) rely on atmospheric and oceanic drivers obtained from climate models. The Earth System Models participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) generally project greater future warming compared with the previous Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5 (CMIP5) effort. Here we use four CMIP6 models and a selection of CMIP5 models to force multiple ice sheet models as part of the Ice Sheet Model Intercomparison Project for CMIP6 (ISMIP6). We find that the projected sea level contribution at 2100 from the ice sheet model ensemble under the CMIP6 scenarios falls within the CMIP5 range for the Antarctic ice sheet but is significantly increased for Greenland. Warmer atmosphere in CMIP6 models results in higher Greenland mass loss due to surface melt. For Antarctica, CMIP6 forcing is similar to CMIP5 and mass gain from increased snowfall counteracts increased loss due to ocean warming.
Published: 2021
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49. Systematic map of the literature on carbon lock-in induced by long-lived capital

Author: Céline Guivarch, Max Callaghan, Felix Creutzig, Jan C. Minx, Vivien Fisch-Romito, Centre International de Recherche sur l'Environnement et le Développement (CIRED), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-AgroParisTech-École des Ponts ParisTech (ENPC)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC), Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), and Chaire MPDD
Subjects: 010504 meteorology & atmospheric sciences, Renewable Energy, Sustainability and the Environment, Natural resource economics, 020209 energy, 1. No poverty, Public Health, Environmental and Occupational Health, 02 engineering and technology, [SHS.ECO]Humanities and Social Sciences/Economics and Finance, 01 natural sciences, Carbon lock-in, 12. Responsible consumption, Climate change mitigation, 13. Climate action, Capital (economics), [SDE]Environmental Sciences, 11. Sustainability, 0202 electrical engineering, electronic engineering, information engineering, ddc:333, ddc:500, Business, ComputingMilieux_MISCELLANEOUS, Evidence synthesis, 0105 earth and related environmental sciences, General Environmental Science
Abstract: Long-lived capital-stocks (LLCS) such as infrastructure and buildings have significant and long-lasting implications for greenhouse gas emissions. They contribute to carbon lock-in and may hinder a rapid decarbonization of energy systems. Here we provide a systematic map of the literature on carbon lock-in induced by LLCS. Based on a structured search of the Web of Science and Scopus, we identified 226 publications from 38 095 search results using a supervised machine learning approach. We show biases toward power generation and toward developed countries. We also identify 11 indicators used to quantify carbon lock-in. Quantifications of committed emissions (cumulative emissions that would occur over the remaining operational lifetime of an asset) or stranded assets (premature retirement/retrofitting or under-utilization of assets along a given pathway) are the most commonly used metrics, whereas institutional indicators are scarcely represented. The synthesis of quantifications shows that (i) global committed emissions have slightly increased over time, (ii) coal power plants are a major source of committed emissions and are exposed to risk of becoming stranded, (iii) delayed mitigation action increases stranded assets and (iv) sectoral distribution and amount of stranded assets differ between countries. A thematic analysis of policy implications highlights the need to assure stability and legitimacy of climate policies and to enable coordination between stakeholders. Carbon pricing is one of the most cited policy instrument, but the literature emphasizes that it should not be the only instrument used and should instead be complemented with other policy instruments, such as technical regulations and financial support for low carbon capital deployment. Further research is warranted on urban-scale, in developing countries and outside the electricity generation sector, notably on buildings, where stranded assets could be high.
Published: 2021
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50. Scenarios for a post-COVID-19 world airline network

Author: Jiachen Ye, Peng Ji, Marc Barthelemy, Fudan University [Shanghai], Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (PIK), Institut de Physique Théorique - UMR CNRS 3681 (IPHT), Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris-Saclay-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre d'Analyse et de Mathématique sociales (CAMS), École des hautes études en sciences sociales (EHESS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and De Laborderie, Emmanuelle
Subjects: Physics - Physics and Society, General Economics (econ.GN), Applied Mathematics, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-SOC-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Physics and Society [physics.soc-ph], FOS: Physical sciences, General Physics and Astronomy, Statistical and Nonlinear Physics, Physics and Society (physics.soc-ph), Disordered Systems and Neural Networks (cond-mat.dis-nn), Condensed Matter - Disordered Systems and Neural Networks, [PHYS.COND.CM-DS-NN] Physics [physics]/Condensed Matter [cond-mat]/Disordered Systems and Neural Networks [cond-mat.dis-nn], FOS: Economics and business, [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-SOC-PH] Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Physics and Society [physics.soc-ph], [PHYS.COND.CM-DS-NN]Physics [physics]/Condensed Matter [cond-mat]/Disordered Systems and Neural Networks [cond-mat.dis-nn], Mathematical Physics, Economics - General Economics
Abstract: The airline industry was severely hit by the COVID-19 crisis with an average demand decrease of about $64\%$ (IATA, April 2020) which triggered already several bankruptcies of airline companies all over the world. While the robustness of the world airline network (WAN) was mostly studied as an homogeneous network, we introduce a new tool for analyzing the impact of a company failure: the `airline company network' where two airlines are connected if they share at least one route segment. Using this tool, we observe that the failure of companies well connected with others has the largest impact on the connectivity of the WAN. We then explore how the global demand reduction affects airlines differently, and provide an analysis of different scenarios if its stays low and does not come back to its pre-crisis level. Using traffic data from the Official Aviation Guide (OAG) and simple assumptions about customer's airline choice strategies, we find that the local effective demand can be much lower than the average one, especially for companies that are not monopolistic and share their segments with larger companies. Even if the average demand comes back to $60\%$ of the total capacity, we find that between $46\%$ and $59\%$ of the companies could experience a reduction of more than $50\%$ of their traffic, depending on the type of competitive advantage that drives customer's airline choice. These results highlight how the complex competitive structure of the WAN weakens its robustness when facing such a large crisis., 12 pages, 7 main figures (+5 figures in appendix)
Published: 2021

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