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The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), part of the European Union’s Earth observation program Copernicus, entered operations in July 2015. Implemented by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) as a truly European effort with over 23,500 direct data users and well over 200 million end users worldwide as of March 2022, CAMS delivers numerous global and regional information products about air quality, inventory-based emissions and observation-based surface fluxes of greenhouse gases and from biomass burning, solar energy, ozone and UV radiation, and climate forcings. Access to CAMS products is open and free of charge via the Atmosphere Data Store. The CAMS global atmospheric composition analyses, forecasts, and reanalyses build on ECMWF’s Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and exploit over 90 different satellite data streams. The global products are complemented by coherent higher-resolution regional air quality products over Europe derived from multisystem analyses and forecasts. CAMS information products also include policy support such as quantitative impact assessment of short- and long-term pollutant-emission mitigation scenarios, source apportionment information, and annual European air quality assessment reports. Relevant CAMS products are cited and used for instance in IPCC Assessment Reports. Providing dedicated support for users operating smartphone applications, websites, or TV bulletins in Europe and worldwide is also integral to the service. This paper presents key achievements of the CAMS initial phase (2014–21) and outlines some of its new components for the second phase (2021–28), e.g., the new Copernicus anthropogenic CO2 emissions Monitoring and Verification Support capacity that will monitor global anthropogenic emissions of key greenhouse gases.

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) provides near-real-time forecast and reanalysis of aerosols using the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System with atmospheric composition extension, constrained by the assimilation of MODIS and the Polar Multi-Sensor Aerosol Optical Properties (PMAp) aerosol optical depth (AOD). The objective of this work is to evaluate two new near-real-time AOD products to prepare for their assimilation into CAMS, namely the Copernicus AOD (collection 1) from the Sea and Land Surface Temperature Radiometer (SLSTR) on board Sentinel 3-A/B over ocean and the NOAA EPS AOD (v2.r1) from VIIRS on board S-NPP and NOAA20 over both land and ocean. The differences between MODIS (C6.1), PMAp (v2.1), VIIRS (v2.r1), and SLSTR (C1) AOD as well as their departure from the modeled AOD were assessed at the model grid resolution (i.e., level-3) using the 3-month AOD average (December 2019–February 2020 and March–May 2020). VIIRS and MODIS show the best consistency across the products, which is explained by instrument and retrieval algorithm similarities. VIIRS AOD is frequently lower over the ocean background and higher over biomass burning and dust source land regions compared to MODIS. VIIRS shows larger spatial coverage over land and resolves finer spatial structures such as the transport of Australian biomass burning smoke over the Pacific, which can be explained by the use of a heavy aerosol detection test in the retrieval algorithm. Our results confirm the positive offset over ocean (i) between Terra/MODIS and Aqua/MODIS due to the non-corrected radiometric calibration degradation of Terra/MODIS in the Dark Target algorithm and (ii) between SNPP/VIIRS and NOAA20/VIIRS due to the positive bias in the solar reflective bands of SNPP/VIIRS. SLSTR AOD shows much smaller level-3 values than the rest of the products, which is mainly related to differences in spatial representativity at the IFS grid spatial resolution due to the stringent cloud filtering applied to the SLSTR radiances. Finally, the geometry characteristics of the instrument, which drive the range of scattering angles sampled by the instrument, can explain a large part of the differences between retrievals such as the positive offset between PMAp datasets from MetOp-B and MetOp-A.

Concentrations of atmospheric methane (CH4), the second most important greenhouse gas, continue to grow. In recent years this growth rate has increased further (2020: +15.6 ppb), the cause of which remains largely unknown. Here, we demonstrate a high-resolution (∼80 km), short-window (24 h) 4D-Var global inversion system based on the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) and newly available satellite observations. The largest national disagreement found between prior (5.3 Tg per month) and posterior (5.0 Tg per month) CH4 emissions is from China, mainly attributed to the energy sector. Emissions estimated from our global system are in good agreement with those of previous regional studies and point source-specific studies. Emission events (leaks or blowouts) > 10 t CH4 h−1 were detected, but without appropriate prior uncertainty information, were not well quantified. Our results suggest that global anthropogenic CH4 emissions for the first 6 months of 2020 were, on average, 470 Gg per month (+1.6 %) higher than for 2019, mainly attributed to the energy and agricultural sectors. Regionally, the largest increases were seen from China (+220 Gg per month, 4.3 %), with smaller increases from India (+50 Gg per month, 1.5 %) and the USA (+40 Gg per month, 2.2 %). When assuming a consistent year-on-year positive trend in emissions, results show that during the onset of the global slowdown (March–April 2020) energy sector CH4 emissions from China increased above expected levels; however, during later months (May–June 2020) emissions decreased below expected levels. Results for the first 6 months of 2019/20 suggest that the accumulated impact of the COVID-19 slowdown on CH4 emissions from March–June 2020 might be small relative to the long-term positive trend in emissions. Changes in OH concentration, not investigated here, may have contributed to the observed growth in 2020.

The Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) has recently produced a greenhouse gas reanalysis (version egg4) that covers almost 2 decades from 2003 to 2020 and which will be extended in the future. This reanalysis dataset includes carbon dioxide (CO2) and methane (CH4). The reanalysis procedure combines model data with satellite data into a globally complete and consistent dataset using the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts' Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). This dataset has been carefully evaluated against independent observations to ensure validity and to point out deficiencies to the user. The greenhouse gas reanalysis can be used to examine the impact of atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations on climate change (such as global and regional climate radiative forcing), assess intercontinental transport, and serve as boundary conditions for regional simulations, among other applications and scientific uses. The caveats associated with changes in assimilated observations and fixed underlying emissions are highlighted, as is their impact on the estimation of trends and annual growth rates of these long-lived greenhouse gases.

The growth in anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions acts as a major climate change driver, which has widespread implications across society, influencing the scientific, political, and public sectors. For an increased understanding of the CO2 emission sources, patterns, and trends, a link between the emission inventories and observed CO2 concentrations is best established via Earth system modelling and data assimilation. Bringing together the different pieces of the puzzle of a very different nature (measurements, reported statistics, and models), it is of utmost importance to know their level of confidence and boundaries well. Inversions disaggregate the variation in observed atmospheric CO2 concentration to variability in CO2 emissions by constraining the regional distribution of CO2 fluxes, derived either bottom-up from statistics or top-down from observations. The level of confidence and boundaries for each of these CO2 fluxes is as important as their intensity, though often not available for bottom-up anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This study provides a postprocessing tool CHE_UNC_APP for anthropogenic CO2 emissions to help assess and manage the uncertainty in the different emitting sectors. The postprocessor is available under https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.5196190 (Choulga et al., 2021). Recommendations are given for regrouping the sectoral emissions, taking into account their uncertainty instead of their statistical origin; for addressing local hot spots; for the treatment of sectors with small budget but uncertainties larger than 100 %; and for the assumptions around the classification of countries based on the quality of their statistical infrastructure. This tool has been applied to the EDGARv4.3.2_FT2015 dataset, resulting in seven input grid maps with upper- and lower-half ranges of uncertainty for the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts Integrated Forecasting System. The dataset is documented and available under https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3967439 (Choulga et al., 2020). While the uncertainty in most emission groups remains relatively small (5 %–20 %), the largest contribution (usually over 40 %) to the total uncertainty is determined by the OTHER group (of fuel exploitation and transformation but also agricultural soils and solvents) at the global scale. The uncertainties have been compared for selected countries to those reported in the inventories submitted to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and to those assessed for the European emission grid maps of the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research. Several sensitivity experiments are performed to check (1) the country dependence (by analysing the impact of assuming either a well- or less well-developed statistical infrastructure), (2) the fuel type dependence (by adding explicit information for each fuel type used per activity from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change), and (3) the spatial source distribution dependence (by aggregating all emission sources and comparing the effect against an even redistribution over the country). The first experiment shows that the SETTLEMENTS group (of energy for buildings) uncertainty changes the most when development level is changed. The second experiment shows that fuel-specific information reduces uncertainty in emissions only when a country uses several different fuels in the same amount; when a country mainly uses the most globally typical fuel for an activity, uncertainty values computed with and without detailed fuel information are the same. The third experiment highlights the importance of spatial mapping.

In this study, we present a novel monitoring methodology that combines satellite retrievals and forecasts to detect local CH4 concentration anomalies worldwide. These anomalies are caused by rapidly changing anthropogenic emissions that significantly contribute to the CH4 atmospheric budget and by biases in the satellite retrieval data. The method uses high-resolution (7 km × 7 km) retrievals of total column CH4 from the TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinel 5 Precursor satellite. Observations are combined with high-resolution CH4 forecasts (∼ 9 km) produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) to provide departures (observations minus forecasts) at close to the satellite's native resolution at appropriate time. Investigating these departures is an effective way to link satellite measurements and emission inventory data in a quantitative manner. We perform filtering on the departures to remove the synoptic-scale and meso-alpha-scale biases in both forecasts and satellite observations. We then apply a simple classification scheme to the filtered departures to detect anomalies and plumes that are missing (e.g. pipeline or facility leaks), underreported or overreported (e.g. depleted drilling fields) in the CAMS emissions. The classification method also shows some limitations to detect emission anomalies only due to local satellite retrieval biases linked to albedo and scattering issues.

Incremental 4D-Var is a data assimilation algorithm used routinely at operational numerical weather predictions centers worldwide.This paper implements a new method for parallelizing incremental 4D-Var, the Randomized Incremental Optimal Technique (RIOT), which replaces the traditional sequential conjugate gradient (CG) iterations in the inner-loop of the minimization with fully parallel randomized singular value decomposition (RSVD) of the preconditioned Hessian of the cost function. RIOT is tested using the standard Lorenz-96 model (L-96) as well as two realistic high-dimensional atmospheric source inversion problems based on aircraft observations of black carbon concentrations. A new outer-loop preconditioning technique tailored to RSVD was introduced to improve convergence stability and performance. Results obtained with the L-96 system show that the performance improvement from RIOT compared to standard CG algorithms increases significantly with non-linearities. Overall, in the realistic black carbon source inversion experiments, RIOT reduces the wall-time of the 4D-Var minimization by a factor 2-3, at the cost of a factor 4-10 increase in energy cost due to the large number of parallel cores used. Furthermore, RIOT enables reduction of the wall-time computation of the analysis error covariance matrix by a factor 40 compared to a standard iterative Lanczos approach. Finally, as evidenced in this study, implementation of RIOT in an operational numerical weather prediction system will require a better understanding of its convergence properties as a function of the Hessian characteristics and, in particular, the degree of freedom for signal (DOFs) of the inverse problem.

The societal benefits of numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts are most evident in populated areas. An urban representation within NWP models should provide improved forecast accuracy. Here, we present the preliminary implementation of an urban scheme within the Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) using a simplified single‐layer urban canopy model. The scheme makes assumptions of canyon geometry and considers fluxes from roads, walls, and roofs. Temperature observations were used to optimize single‐column model (SCM) parameters using the Gauss‐Newton method. Observation comparisons over six European cities, show a 2‐m temperature root‐mean‐squared error reduction from 1.85 to 1.75 K with the urban scheme. Optimized parameters were used globally at kilometric scale in a land surface model. A sensitivity experiment assuming a 100% urban world showed spatially averaged northern hemisphere 2‐m temperatures increased by 0.54 K (January) and 0.42 K (July) at night caused by changes in the albedo, emissivity, roughness, and thermal and hydrological properties. Global ∼1‐km resolution simulations using ancillary urban mapping information produce an urban heat island effect over major and minor conurbations. Only major conurbations were well represented at ∼9‐km resolution. Results from SCM simulations show a heightening of the planetary boundary layer over city sites, with the largest enhancements occurring at night in July (84 ± 48 m) caused by an increased sensible heat flux. These initial developments show the importance of a high‐resolution urban representation within NWP models. Improved parameterization and mapping will enable an online representation of energy, water, and trace gas fluxes over residential areas.

Atmospheric inversions inform us about the magnitude and variations of greenhouse gas (GHG) sources and sinks from global to local scales. Deployment of observing systems such as spaceborne sensors and ground-based instruments distributed around the globe has started to offer an unprecedented amount of information to estimate surface exchanges of GHG at finer spatial and temporal scales. However, all inversion methods still rely on imperfect atmospheric transport models whose error structures directly affect the inverse estimates of GHG fluxes. The impact of spatial error structures on the retrieved fluxes increase concurrently with the density of the available measurements. In this study, we diagnose the spatial structures due to transport model errors affecting modeled in situ carbon dioxide (CO2) mole fractions and total-column dry air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2). We implement a cost-effective filtering technique recently developed in the meteorological data assimilation community to describe spatial error structures using a small-size ensemble. This technique can enable ensemble-based error analysis for multiyear inversions of sources and sinks. The removal of noisy structures due to sampling errors in our small-size ensembles is evaluated by comparison with larger-size ensembles. A second filtering approach for error covariances is proposed (Wiener filter), producing similar results over the 1-month simulation period compared to a Schur filter. Based on a comparison to a reference 25-member calibrated ensemble, we demonstrate that error variances and spatial error correlation structures are recoverable from small-size ensembles of about 8 to 10 members, improving the representation of transport errors in mesoscale inversions of CO2 fluxes. Moreover, error variances of in situ near-surface and free-tropospheric CO2 mole fractions differ significantly from total-column XCO2 error variances. We conclude that error variances for remote-sensing observations need to be quantified independently of in situ CO2 mole fractions due to the complexity of spatial error structures at different altitudes. However, we show the potential use of meteorological error structures such as the mean horizontal wind speed, directly available from ensemble prediction systems, to approximate spatial error correlations of in situ CO2 mole fractions, with similarities in seasonal variations and characteristic error length scales.

Urban areas make up only a small fraction of the Earth’s surface; however, they are home to over 50% of the global population. Accurate numerical weather prediction (NWP) forecasts in these areas offer clear societal benefits; however, land-atmosphere interactions are significantly different between urban and non-urban environments. Forecasting urban weather requires higher model resolution than the size of the urban domain, which is often achievable by regional but not global NWP models. Here we present the preliminary implementation of an urban scheme within the land surface component of the global Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), at recently developed ~1km horizontal resolution. We evaluate the representation error of fluxes and NWP variables at coarser resolutions (~9 km and ~31 km), using the high resolution as truth. We evaluate the feasibility of the scheme and its urban representation at ~1km scales. Availability of urban mapping data limit the affordable complexity of the global scheme; however, using generalisations model performance is improved over urban sites, even adopting simple schemes, and the modelled Urban Heat Island effects show broad agreement with observations. Several directions for future work are explored including a more complex urban representation, restructuring of the urban tiling and the introduction of an urban emissions model for trace gas emissions.

The Paris Agreement of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change is a binding international treaty signed by 196 nations to limit their greenhouse gas emissions through ever-reducing Nationally Determined Contributions and a system of 5-yearly Global Stocktakes in an Enhanced Transparency Framework. To support this process, the European Commission initiated the design and development of a new Copernicus service element that will use Earth observations mainly to monitor anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions. The CO2 Human Emissions (CHE) project has been successfully coordinating efforts of its 22 consortium partners, to advance the development of a European CO2 monitoring and verification support (CO2MVS) capacity for anthropogenic CO2 emissions. Several project achievements are presented and discussed here as examples. The CHE project has developed an enhanced capability to produce global, regional and local CO2 simulations, with a focus on the representation of anthropogenic sources. The project has achieved advances towards a CO2 global inversion capability at high resolution to connect atmospheric concentrations to surface emissions. CHE has also demonstrated the use of Earth observations (satellite and ground-based) as well as proxy data for human activity to constrain uncertainties and to enhance the timeliness of CO2 monitoring. High-resolution global simulations (at 9 km) covering the whole of 2015 (labelled CHE nature runs) fed regional and local simulations over Europe (at 5 km and 1 km resolution) and supported the generation of synthetic satellite observations simulating the contribution of a future dedicated Copernicus CO2 Monitoring Mission (CO2M).

In this study we present a novel monitoring methodology to detect local CH4 concentration anomalies worldwide that are related to rapidly changing anthropogenic emissions that significantly contribute to the CH4 atmospheric budget. The method uses high resolution (7 km × 7 km) retrievals of total column CH4 from the Tropospheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) onboard the Sentinel 5 Precursor satellite. Observations are combined with high resolution CH4 forecasts (~ 9 km) produced by the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) to provide departures (observations minus forecasts) close to the native satellite resolution at appropriate time. Investigating the departures is an effective way to link satellite measurements and emission inventory data in a quantitative manner. We perform filtering on the departures to remove the large-scale biases on both forecasts and satellite observations. We then use a simple classification on the filtered departures to detect anomalies and plumes coming from CAMS emissions that are missing (e.g. pipeline or facility leaks), under-reported or over-reported (e.g. depleted drilling fields). Additionally, the classification helps to detect local satellite retrieval errors due to land surface albedo issues.

Anthropogenic carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions and their observed growing trends raise awareness in scientific, political and public sectors of the society as the major driver of climate-change. For an increased understanding of the CO2 emission sources, patterns and trends, a link between the emission inventories and observed CO2 concentrations is best established via Earth system modelling and data assimilation. In this study anthropogenic CO2 emission inventories are processed into gridded maps to provide an estimate of prior CO2 emissions for 7 main emissions groups: 1) power generation super-emitters and 2) energy production average-emitters, 3) manufacturing, 4) settlements, 5) aviation, 6) transport and 7) others, with estimation of their uncertainty and covariance to be included in the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). The emission inventories are sourced from the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) 2006 Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories and revised information from its 2019 Refinements, and the global grid-maps of Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research (EDGAR) inventory. The anthropogenic CO2 emissions for 2012 and 2015, (EDGAR versions 4.3.2 and 4.3.2_FT2015 respectively) are considered, updated with improved apportionment of the energy sector, energy usage for manufacturing and diffusive CO2 emissions from coal mines. These emissions aggregated into 7 ECMWF groups with their emission uncertainties are calculated per country considering its statistical infrastructure development level and sector considering the most typical fuel type and use the IPCC recommended error propagation method assuming fully uncorrelated emissions to generate covariance matrices of parsimonious dimension (7×7). While the uncertainty of most groups remains relatively small, the largest contribution to the total uncertainty is determined by the group with usually the smallest budget, consisting of oil refineries and transformation industry, fuel exploitation, coal production, agricultural soils and solvents and products use emissions. Several sensitivity studies are performed: for country type (with well-/less well-developed statistical infrastructure), for fuel type specification, and for national emission source distribution (highlights the importance of 30 accurate point source mapping). Uncertainties are compared with United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and the Netherlands Organisation for Applied Scientific Research (TNO) data. Upgraded anthropogenic CO2 emission maps with their yearly and monthly uncertainties are combined into the CHE_EDGAR-ECMWF_2015 dataset (Choulga et al., 2020) available from https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.3712339.

The CO2 Human Emission (CHE) project is an European initiative bringing together a consortium of 22 European partners to build a prototype global CO2 source inversion system that can provide policy-relevant information on the spatiotemporal characteristics of anthropogenic CO2 emissions. This prototype shall evolve toward a new Copernicus CO2 service, which will provide a Monitoring and Verification Support (MVS) capacity that can address the challenge of the global stocktake (GST) devised under the Paris Agreement. The global inversion system will build on existing operational infrastructures (CAMS, C3S) at the European Centre for Medium-range Weather Forecast (ECMWF) to exploit ground-based measurements as well as space-based observations from current and future satellite missions (e.g., Sentinel 5p and CO2M). We will present ongoing efforts at ECMWF to develop a source inversion capability in the current operational Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which will serve as the basis for the future global CO2 inversion prototype. Preliminary results will be discussed, that include model transport error estimations based on Monte-Carlo ensemble simulations as well as the first chemical source optimization experiments performed with the IFS 4D-Var system.

As part of the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS), operated by ECMWF on behalf of the European Commission, global analyses and forecasts of atmospheric composition have been produced operationally since 2015. These were built on many years of previous work under the GEMS and MACC projects, which began producing regular forecasts in 2007.Since the transition to an operational service, there have continued to be many new developments and improvements to the system in five major upgrades, including increased horizontal and vertical resolution, updated emissions and paramterisations, additional species such as nitrate aerosol, as well as updates to the underlying meteorological model and data assimilation. The components of this system (aerosols, gas-phase chemistry, meteorology and the ocean) are also now coupled more tightly via active feedbacks then ever before.In this interactive presentation, we will demonstrate the impact of a number of these developments on the performance of the resulting global air quality forecasts, alongside the continuing evolution of our approaches to assessing model improvement against independent in-situ and remote-sensing observations from a variety of platforms.Because the continuing evolution of an operational system can make the analysis of long-term trends problematic, we will also contrast this with the CAMS global reanalysis product, which (while not using the very latest version of the model) do provide a consistent long-term dataset from 2003 onwards.

Effective monitoring of global wildfire activity requires comprehensive knowledge of changing environmental (including atmospheric and hydrological) conditions, fuel availability and routine observations of fire locations and intensity. The European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) through its operation of, and contribution to, different Copernicus Services is in a unique position to provide detailed information on the conditions leading to wildland fire activity, the evolution of wildfires, and their potential impacts, when they occur. Fire weather forecasts from the Copernicus Emergency Management Service, and surface climate anomalies from the Copernicus Climate Change Service both provide context to the environmental conditions required for wildfires to persist. Analyses based on observations of fire radiative power, along with analyses and forecasts of associated atmospheric pollutants, from the Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service aid in quantifying the scale and intensity in near-real-time and the subsequent atmospheric impacts. During 2019, regions of anomalously hot and dry surface conditions in Arctic Siberia and southeast Australia experienced large-scale, long-duration wildfires which burned thousands of square kilometres with a total intensity that was significantly above the average of the previous 16 years of data in those regions. We present an overview of the evolution of fire activity in Siberia between June-August 2019, and Australia between September 2019-January 2020, based on ECMWF/Copernicus data for fire weather, climate anomalies and active fires. We will show that the different datasets, while being relatively independent, show a strong correspondence and provide a wealth of information vital to understanding global wildfires, their underlying causes and environmental impacts.

The CO2 Human Emissions (CHE) project has been tasked by the European Commission to prepare the development of a European capacity to monitor anthropogenic CO2 emissions. The monitoring of fossil fuel CO2 emissions has to come with a sufficiently low uncertainty in order to be useful for policymakers. In this context, the main approaches to estimate fossil fuel emissions, apart from bottom-up inventories, are based on inverse transportmodeling either on its own or within a coupled carbon cycle fossil fuel data assimilation system. Both approaches make use of atmospheric CO2 and other tracers (e.g., CO and NOx) and rely on the availability of prior fossil fuel CO2 emission estimates and uncertainties (as well as biogenic fluxes for the transport inverse modeling). For a robust estimate of the uncertainty, information from different sources needs to be brought together.A methodology to calculate yearly and monthly anthropogenic CO2 emission uncertainties based on IPCC guidelines (2006 IPCC Guidelines for National Greenhouse Gas Inventories + its 2019 Refinements) has been developed. Emission uncertainties are calculated for all world countries, under the assumption of two categories of world countries, depending on whether the country’s statistical infrastructure is well or less developed. For well-developed statistical infrastructure, emission uncertainties are lower, while less developed statistical infrastructure countries have higher emission uncertainties. A sensitivity analysis is investigating the impact of the well or less developed infrastructure assumption for several countries on the global emission uncertainty. Sensitivity experiments with different anthropogenic CO2 sources distributions, as well as the first results on using these prior anthropogenic CO2 uncertainties in ensemble perturbation runs will be presented.

The European Union’s Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service (CAMS) operationally provides daily forecasts of global atmospheric composition. It uses the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System (IFS), which includes meteorological and atmospheric composition variables, such as reactive gases, greenhouse gases and aerosols, for its global forecasts and reanalyses. The current green-house gases operational suite monitors CH4 and CO2 and assimilates TANSO and IASI retrievals for both species. The TROPOspheric Monitoring Instrument (TROPOMI) on board the Sentinel-5 Precursor (S5P) satellite launched in October 2017 yields a wealth of atmospheric composition data, including CH4 retrievals at unprecedented high horizontal resolution (7km) and up to daily revisit time. We used the IFS to perform monitoring experiments at different horizontal resolutions (25 km and 9 km). We also performed first data assimilation experiments at 25 km horizontal resolution.This first set of monitoring experiments shows the potential of the TROPOMI CH4 retrievals to correct known biases that exist in the current CAMS analyses and forecasts. Assimilation experiments of TROPOMI CH4 shows that adding the instrument in the operational chain would significantly improve the analysis and forecasts. Detection of CH4 sources seen by TROPOMI compared to CAMS also shows the potential of the instrument to inform on and infer anthropogenic and natural sources. For example, discrepancies between TROPOMI retrievals and CAMS fields in the CH4 levels associated with oil and gas extraction activities show very promising perspectives for monitoring and analysis of CH4 concentration and emissions. We will finally discuss the challenges and progress made towards performing inversions using the IFS operational system.

Atmospheric flux inversions use observations of atmospheric CO2 to provide anthropogenic and biogenic CO2 flux estimates at a range of spatio-temporal scales. Inversions require prior flux, a forward model and observation errors to estimate posterior fluxes and uncertainties. Here, we investigate the forward transport error and the associated biogenic feedback in an Earth system model (ESM) context. These errors can occur from uncertainty in the initial meteorology, the analysis fields used, or the advection schemes and physical parameterisation of the model. We also explore the spatio-temporal variability and flow-dependent error covariances. We then compare the error with the atmospheric response to uncertainty in the prior anthropogenic emissions. Although transport errors are variable, average total-column CO2 (XCO2) transport errors over anthropogenic emission hotspots (0.1–0.8 ppm) are comparable to, and often exceed, prior monthly anthropogenic flux uncertainties projected onto the same space (0.1–1.4 ppm). Average near-surface transport errors at three sites (Paris, Caltech and Tsukuba) range from 1.7 to 7.2 ppm. The global average XCO2 transport error standard deviation plateaus at ∼0.1 ppm after 2–3 d, after which atmospheric mixing significantly dampens the concentration gradients. Error correlations are found to be highly flow dependent, with XCO2 spatio-temporal correlation length scales ranging from 0 to 700 km and 0 to 260 min. Globally, the average model error caused by the biogenic response to atmospheric meteorological uncertainties is small (

We present top-down constraints on global monthly N2O emissions for 2011 from a multi-inversion approach and an ensemble of surface observations. The inversions employ the GEOS-Chem adjoint and an array of aggregation strategies to test how well current observations can constrain the spatial distribution of global N2O emissions. The strategies include (1) a standard 4D-Var inversion at native model resolution (4° × 5°), (2) an inversion for six continental and three ocean regions, and (3) a fast 4D-Var inversion based on a novel dimension reduction technique employing randomized singular value decomposition (SVD). The optimized global flux ranges from 15.9 Tg N yr−1 (SVD-based inversion) to 17.5–17.7 Tg N yr−1 (continental-scale, standard 4D-Var inversions), with the former better capturing the extratropical N2O background measured during the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) airborne campaigns. We find that the tropics provide a greater contribution to the global N2O flux than is predicted by the prior bottom-up inventories, likely due to underestimated agricultural and oceanic emissions. We infer an overestimate of natural soil emissions in the extratropics and find that predicted emissions are seasonally biased in northern midlatitudes. Here, optimized fluxes exhibit a springtime peak consistent with the timing of spring fertilizer and manure application, soil thawing, and elevated soil moisture. Finally, the inversions reveal a major emission underestimate in the US Corn Belt in the bottom-up inventory used here. We extensively test the impact of initial conditions on the analysis and recommend formally optimizing the initial N2O distribution to avoid biasing the inferred fluxes. We find that the SVD-based approach provides a powerful framework for deriving emission information from N2O observations: by defining the optimal resolution of the solution based on the information content of the inversion, it provides spatial information that is lost when aggregating to political or geographic regions, while also providing more temporal information than a standard 4D-Var inversion.

In this paper, we review the use of satellite-based remote sensing in combination with in situ data to inform Earth surface modelling. This involves verification and optimization methods that can handle both random and systematic errors and result in effective model improvement for both surface monitoring and prediction applications. The reasons for diverse remote sensing data and products include (i) their complementary areal and temporal coverage, (ii) their diverse and covariant information content, and (iii) their ability to complement in situ observations, which are often sparse and only locally representative. To improve our understanding of the complex behavior of the Earth system at the surface and sub-surface, we need large volumes of data from high-resolution modelling and remote sensing, since the Earth surface exhibits a high degree of heterogeneity and discontinuities in space and time. The spatial and temporal variability of the biosphere, hydrosphere, cryosphere and anthroposphere calls for an increased use of Earth observation (EO) data attaining volumes previously considered prohibitive. We review data availability and discuss recent examples where satellite remote sensing is used to infer observable surface quantities directly or indirectly, with particular emphasis on key parameters necessary for weather and climate prediction. Coordinated high-resolution remote-sensing and modelling/assimilation capabilities for the Earth surface are required to support an international application-focused effort.

International audience

We describe a new 4D-Var inversion framework for nitrous oxide (N2O) based on the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model and its adjoint, and apply it in a series of observing system simulation experiments to assess how well N2O sources and sinks can be constrained by the current global observing network. The employed measurement ensemble includes approximately weekly and quasi-continuous N2O measurements (hourly averages used) from several long-term monitoring networks, N2O measurements collected from discrete air samples onboard a commercial aircraft (Civil Aircraft for the Regular Investigation of the atmosphere Based on an Instrument Container; CARIBIC), and quasi-continuous measurements from the airborne HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) campaigns. For a 2-year inversion, we find that the surface and HIPPO observations can accurately resolve a uniform bias in emissions during the first year; CARIBIC data provide a somewhat weaker constraint. Variable emission errors are much more difficult to resolve given the long lifetime of N2O, and major parts of the world lack significant constraints on the seasonal cycle of fluxes. Current observations can largely correct a global bias in the stratospheric sink of N2O if emissions are known, but do not provide information on the temporal and spatial distribution of the sink. However, for the more realistic scenario where source and sink are both uncertain, we find that simultaneously optimizing both would require unrealistically small errors in model transport. Regardless, a bias in the magnitude of the N2O sink would not affect the a posteriori N2O emissions for the 2-year timescale used here, given realistic initial conditions, due to the timescale required for stratosphere–troposphere exchange (STE). The same does not apply to model errors in the rate of STE itself, which we show exerts a larger influence on the tropospheric burden of N2O than does the chemical loss rate over short (< 3 year) timescales. We use a stochastic estimate of the inverse Hessian for the inversion to evaluate the spatial resolution of emission constraints provided by the observations, and find that significant, spatially explicit constraints can be achieved in locations near and immediately upwind of surface measurements and the HIPPO flight tracks; however, these are mostly confined to North America, Europe, and Australia. None of the current observing networks are able to provide significant spatial information on tropical N2O emissions. There, averaging kernels (describing the sensitivity of the inversion to emissions in each grid square) are highly smeared spatially and extend even to the midlatitudes, so that tropical emissions risk being conflated with those elsewhere. For global inversions, therefore, the current lack of constraints on the tropics also places an important limit on our ability to understand extratropical emissions. Based on the error reduction statistics from the inverse Hessian, we characterize the atmospheric distribution of unconstrained N2O, and identify regions in and downwind of South America, central Africa, and Southeast Asia where new surface or profile measurements would have the most value for reducing present uncertainty in the global N2O budget.

Accurate estimates of the emissions and distribution of black carbon (BC) in the region referred to here as Southeastern Asia (70–150° E, 11° S–55° N) are critical to studies of the atmospheric environment and climate change. Analysis of modeled BC concentrations compared to in situ observations indicates levels are underestimated over most of Southeast Asia when using any of four different emission inventories. We thus attempt to reduce uncertainties in BC emissions and improve BC model simulations by developing top-down, spatially resolved, estimates of BC emissions through assimilation of OMI (Ozone Monitoring Instrument) observations of aerosol absorption optical depth (AAOD) with the GEOS-Chem (Goddard Earth Observing System – chemistry) model and its adjoint for April and October 2006. Overwhelming enhancements, up to 500 %, in anthropogenic BC emissions are shown after optimization over broad areas of Southeast Asia in April. In October, the optimization of anthropogenic emissions yields a slight reduction (1–5 %) over India and parts of southern China, while emissions increase by 10–50 % over eastern China. Observational data from in situ measurements and AERONET (Aerosol Robotic Network) observations are used to evaluate the BC inversions and assess the bias between OMI and AERONET AAOD. Low biases in BC concentrations are improved or corrected in most eastern and central sites over China after optimization, while the constrained model still underestimates concentrations in Indian sites in both April and October, possibly as a consequence of low prior emissions. Model resolution errors may contribute up to a factor of 2.5 to the underestimation of surface BC concentrations over northern India. We also compare the optimized results using different anthropogenic emission inventories and discuss the sensitivity of top-down constraints on anthropogenic emissions with respect to biomass burning emissions. In addition, the impacts of brown carbon, the formulation of the observation operator, and different a priori constraints on the optimization are investigated. Overall, despite these limitations and uncertainties, using OMI AAOD to constrain BC sources improves model representation of BC distributions, particularly over China.

Methane (CH4) is the primary component of natural gas and has a larger global warming potential than CO2. Some recent top-down studies based on observations showed CH4 emissions in California's South Coast Air Basin (SoCAB) were greater than those expected from population-apportioned bottom-up state inventories. In this study, we quantify CH4 emissions with an advanced mesoscale inverse modeling system at a resolution of 8 km × 8 km, using aircraft measurements in the SoCAB during the 2010 Nexus of Air Quality and Climate Change campaign to constrain the inversion. To simulate atmospheric transport, we use the FLEXible PARTicle-Weather Research and Forecasting (FLEXPART-WRF) Lagrangian particle dispersion model driven by three configurations of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) mesoscale model. We determine surface fluxes of CH4 using a Bayesian least squares method in a four-dimensional inversion. Simulated CH4 concentrations with the posterior emission inventory achieve much better correlations with the measurements (R2 = 0.7) than using the prior inventory (U.S. Environmental Protection Agency's National Emission Inventory 2005, R2 = 0.5). The emission estimates for CH4 in the posterior, 46.3 ± 9.2 Mg CH4/h, are consistent with published observation-based estimates. Changes in the spatial distribution of CH4 emissions in the SoCAB betweenmore » the prior and posterior inventories are discussed. Missing or underestimated emissions from dairies, the oil/gas system, and landfills in the SoCAB seem to explain the differences between the prior and posterior inventories. Furthermore, we estimate that dairies contributed 5.9 ± 1.7 Mg CH4/h and the two sectors of oil and gas industries (production and downstream) and landfills together contributed 39.6 ± 8.1 Mg CH4/h in the SoCAB.« less

Variational methods are widely used to solve geophysical inverse problems. Although gradient-based minimization algorithms are available for high-dimensional problems (dimension >106), they do not provide an estimate of the errors in the optimal solution. In this study, we assess the performance of several numerical methods to approximate the analysis-error covariance matrix, assuming reasonably linear models. The evaluation is performed for a CO2 flux estimation problem using synthetic remote-sensing observations of CO2 columns. A low-dimensional experiment is considered in order to compare the analysis error approximations to a full-rank finite-difference inverse Hessian estimate, followed by a realistic high-dimensional application. Two stochastic approaches, a Monte-Carlo simulation and a method based on random gradients of the cost function, produced analysis error variances with a relative error 120%), a new preconditioner that efficiently accumulates information on the diagonal of the inverse Hessian dramatically improves the results (relative error

We present top-down constraints on global, monthly N2O emissions for 2011 from a multi-inversion approach and an ensemble of surface observations. The inversions employ the GEOS-Chem adjoint and an array of aggregation strategies to test how well current observations can constrain the spatial distribution of global N2O emissions. The strategies include: (1) a standard 4D-Var inversion at native model resolution (4° × 5°), (2) an inversion for six continental and three ocean regions, and (3) a fast 4D-Var inversion based on a novel dimension reduction technique employing randomized singular value decomposition (SVD). The optimized global flux ranges from 15.9 Tg N yr−1 (SVD-based inversion) to 17.5–17.7 Tg N yr−1 (continental-scale, standard 4D-Var inversions), with the former better capturing the N2O background measured during the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) airborne campaigns. We find that the tropics provide a greater contribution to the global N2O flux than is predicted by the prior bottom-up inventories, likely due to underestimated agricultural and oceanic emissions. We infer an overestimate of natural soil emissions in the extratropics, and find that predicted emissions are seasonally biased in northern midlatitudes. Here, optimized fluxes exhibit a springtime versus summertime peak more consistent with the timing of fertilizer application, soil thawing, and elevated soil moisture. Finally, the inversions reveal a major emission underestimate in the US Corn Belt (which may extend to other intensive agricultural regions), likely from underrepresentation of indirect N2O emissions from leaching and runoff. We extensively test the impact of initial conditions on the analysis and recommend formally optimizing the initial N2O distribution to avoid aliasing the inferred fluxes. We find that the SVD-based approach provides a powerful framework for deriving emission information from N2O observations: by defining the state vector based on the information content of the inversion, it provides useful spatial information that is lost when aggregating to ad-hoc regions, while also better resolving temporal features than a standard 4D-Var inversion.

International audience; We quantify methane (CH4) emissions in California's San Joaquin Valley (SJV) by using 4 days of aircraft measurements from a field campaign during May–June 2010 together with a Bayesian inversion method and a mass balance approach. For the inversion estimates, we use the FLEXible PARTicle dispersion model (FLEXPART) to establish the source‐receptor relationship between sampled atmospheric concentrations and surface fluxes. Our prior CH4 emission estimates are from the California Greenhouse Gas Emissions Measurements (CALGEM) inventory. We use three meteorological configurations to drive FLEXPART and subsequently construct three inversions to analyze the final optimized estimates and their uncertainty (one standard deviation). We conduct May and June inversions independently and derive similar total CH4 emission estimates for the SJV: 135 ± 28 Mg/h in May and 135 ± 19 Mg/h in June. The inversion result is 1.7 times higher than the prior estimate from CALGEM. We also use an independent mass balance approach to estimate CH4 emissions in the northern SJV for one flight when meteorological conditions allowed. The mass balance estimate provides a confirmation of our inversion results, and these two independent estimates of the total CH4 emissions in the SJV are consistent with previous studies. In this study, we provide optimized CH4 emissions estimates at 0.1° horizontal resolution. Using independent spatial information on major CH4 sources, we estimate that livestock contribute 75–77% and oil/gas production contributes 15–18% of the total CH4 emissions in the SJV. Livestock explain most of the discrepancies between the prior and the optimized emissions from our inversion.

We have examined the utility of retrieved column-averaged, dry-air mole fractions of CO2 (XCO2) from the Greenhouse Gases Observing Satellite (GOSAT) for quantifying monthly, regional flux estimates of CO2, using the GEOS-Chem four-dimensional variational (4D-Var) data assimilation system. We focused on assessing the potential impact of biases in the GOSAT CO2 data on the regional flux estimates. Using different screening and bias correction approaches, we selected three different subsets of the GOSAT XCO2 data for the 4D-Var inversion analyses, and found that the inferred global fluxes were consistent across the three XCO2 inversions. However, the GOSAT observational coverage was a challenge for the regional flux estimates. In the northern extratropics, the inversions were more sensitive to North American fluxes than to European and Asian fluxes due to the lack of observations over Eurasia in winter and over eastern and southern Asia in summer. The regional flux estimates were also sensitive to the treatment of the residual bias in the GOSAT XCO2 data. The largest differences obtained were for temperate North America and temperate South America, for which the largest spread between the inversions was 1.02 and 0.96 Pg C, respectively. In the case of temperate North America, one inversion suggested a strong source, whereas the second and third XCO2 inversions produced a weak and strong sink, respectively. Despite the discrepancies in the regional flux estimates between the three XCO2 inversions, the a posteriori CO2 distributions were in good agreement (with a mean difference between the three inversions of typically less than 0.5 ppm) with independent data from the Total Carbon Column Observing Network (TCCON), the surface flask network, and from the HIAPER Pole-to-Pole Observations (HIPPO) aircraft campaign. The discrepancy in the regional flux estimates from the different inversions, despite the agreement of the global flux estimates suggests the need for additional work to determine the minimum spatial scales at which we can reliably quantify the fluxes using GOSAT XCO2. The fact that the a posteriori CO2 from the different inversions were in good agreement with the independent data although the regional flux estimates differed significantly, suggests that innovative ways of exploiting existing data sets, and possibly additional observations, are needed to better evaluate the inferred regional flux estimates.

A novel multilevel threshold segmentation method for color satellite images based on Masi entropy is proposed in this paper. Lévy multiverse optimization algorithm (LMVO) has a strong advantage over the traditional multiverse optimization algorithm (MVO) in finding the optimal solution for the segmentation in the three channels of an RGB image. As the work advancement introduces a Lévy multiverse optimization algorithm which uses tournament selection instead of roulette wheel selection, and updates some formulas in the algorithm with mutation factor. Then, the proposal is called TLMVO, and another advantage is that the population diversity of the algorithm in the latest iterations is maintained. The Masi entropy is used as an application and combined with the improved TLMVO algorithm for satellite color image segmentation. Masi entropy combines the additivity of Renyi entropy and the non-extensibility of Tsallis entropy. By increasing the number of thesholds, the quality of segmenttion becomes better, then the dimensionality of the problem also increases. Fitness function value, average CPU running time, Peak Signal-to-Noise Ratio (PSNR), Structural Similarity Index (SSIM) and Feature Similarity Index (FSIM) were used to evaluate the segmentation results. Further statistical evaluation was given by Wilcoxon’s rank sum test and Friedman test. The experimental results show that the TLMVO algorithm has wide adaptability to high-dimensional optimization problems, and has obvious advantages in objective function value, image quality detection, convergence performance and robustness.

We employ new global space-based measurements of atmospheric methanol from the Tropospheric Emission Spectrometer (TES) with the adjoint of the GEOS-Chem chemical transport model to quantify terrestrial emissions of methanol to the atmosphere. Biogenic methanol emissions in the model are based on version 2.1 of the Model of Emissions of Gases and Aerosols from Nature (MEGANv2.1), using leaf area data from NASA's Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) and GEOS-5 assimilated meteorological fields. We first carry out a pseudo observation test to validate the overall approach, and find that the TES sampling density is sufficient to accurately quantify regional- to continental-scale methanol emissions using this method. A global inversion of two years of TES data yields an optimized annual global surface flux of 122 Tg yr−1 (including biogenic, pyrogenic, and anthropogenic sources), an increase of 60% from the a priori global flux of 76 Tg yr−1. Global terrestrial methanol emissions are thus nearly 25% those of isoprene (~540 Tg yr−1), and are comparable to the combined emissions of all anthropogenic volatile organic compounds (~100–200 Tg yr−1). Our a posteriori terrestrial methanol source leads to a strong improvement of the simulation relative to an ensemble of airborne observations, and corroborates two other recent top-down estimates (114–120 Tg yr−1) derived using in situ and space-based measurements. Inversions testing the sensitivity of optimized fluxes to model errors in OH, dry deposition, and oceanic uptake of methanol, as well as to the assumed a priori constraint, lead to global fluxes ranging from 118 to 126 Tg yr−1. The TES data imply a relatively modest revision of model emissions over most of the tropics, but a significant upward revision in midlatitudes, particularly over Europe and North America. We interpret the inversion results in terms of specific source types using the methanol : CO correlations measured by TES, and find that biogenic emissions are overestimated relative to biomass burning and anthropogenic emissions in central Africa and southeastern China, while they are underestimated in regions such as Brazil and the US. Based on our optimized emissions, methanol accounts for > 25% of the photochemical source of CO and HCHO over many parts of the northern extratropics during springtime, and contributes ~6% of the global secondary source of those compounds annually.

Using an Observing System Simulation Experiment (OSSE), we investigate the impact of JAXA Greenhouse gases Observing SATellite ‘IBUKI’ (GOSAT) sampling on the estimation of terrestrial biospheric flux with the NASA Carbon Monitoring System Flux (CMS-Flux) estimation and attribution strategy. The simulated observations in the OSSE use the actual column carbon dioxide (X CO 2 ) b2.9 retrieval sensitivity and quality control for the year 2010 processed through the Atmospheric CO 2 Observations from Space algorithm. CMS-Flux is a variational inversion system that uses the GEOS-Chem forward and adjoint model forced by a suite of observationally constrained fluxes from ocean, land and anthropogenic models. We investigate the impact of GOSAT sampling on flux estimation in two aspects: 1) random error uncertainty reduction and 2) the global and regional bias in posterior flux resulted from the spatiotemporally biased GOSAT sampling. Based on Monte Carlo calculations, we find that global average flux uncertainty reduction ranges from 25% in September to 60% in July. When aggregated to the 11 land regions designated by the phase 3 of the Atmospheric Tracer Transport Model Intercomparison Project, the annual mean uncertainty reduction ranges from 10% over North American boreal to 38% over South American temperate, which is driven by observational coverage and the magnitude of prior flux uncertainty. The uncertainty reduction over the South American tropical region is 30%, even with sparse observation coverage. We show that this reduction results from the large prior flux uncertainty and the impact of non-local observations. Given the assumed prior error statistics, the degree of freedom for signal is ~1132 for 1-yr of the 74 055 GOSAT X CO 2 observations, which indicates that GOSAT provides ~1132 independent pieces of information about surface fluxes. We quantify the impact of GOSAT’s spatiotemporally sampling on the posterior flux, and find that a 0.7 gigatons of carbon bias in the global annual posterior flux resulted from the seasonally and diurnally biased sampling when using a diagonal prior flux error covariance. Keywords: NASA CMS-Flux, GOSAT, OCO-2, variational inversion, biased sampling, Monte Carlo (Published: 9 May 2014) Citation: Tellus B 2014, 66 , 22486, http://dx.doi.org/10.3402/tellusb.v66.22486

These data support the journal article : An Urban Scheme for the ECMWF Integrated Forecasting System: Single-Column and Global Offline Evaluation (Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems). The files provided are as follows: 3D_FIELD_PARIS.nc - Provides an example 3D profile from the Single Column Model including temperature, sensible heat flux and PBL height. GLOBAL_JUL_AVE.zip - Provides the global 2m temperature from three different surface only simulations at ~1 km resolution for July 2019, these include a control, urban-world and using a more realistic urban map. OBSERVATIONS.nc - Includes the 2m air temperature from SYNOP sites used to optimise the urban parameters in the SCM. SCM_DIURNAL_JAN/JUL.nc - Provides the 2m air temperature diurnal cycle for January and July estimated by the SCM using optimised parameters over 8 sites. SCM_OUTPUT.zip - Provides the January and July SCM output of 2m air temperature using optimised parameters over 8 sites. For more information please contact joe.mcnorton@ecmwf.int