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Abstract Aggressive breast cancers portend a poor prognosis, but current polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for breast cancer do not reliably predict aggressive cancers. Aggressiveness can be effectively recapitulated using tumor gene expression profiling. Thus, we sought to develop a PRS for the risk of recurrence score weighted on proliferation (ROR-P), an established prognostic signature. Using 2363 breast cancers with tumor gene expression data and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotypes, we examined the associations between ROR-P and known breast cancer susceptibility SNPs using linear regression models. We constructed PRSs based on varying p-value thresholds and selected the optimal PRS based on model r2 in 5-fold cross-validation. We then used Cox proportional hazards regression to test the ROR-P PRS’s association with breast cancer-specific survival in two independent cohorts totaling 10,196 breast cancers and 785 events. In meta-analysis of these cohorts, higher ROR-P PRS was associated with worse survival, HR per SD = 1.13 (95% CI 1.06–1.21, p = 4.0 × 10–4). The ROR-P PRS had a similar magnitude of effect on survival as a comparator PRS for estrogen receptor (ER)-negative versus positive cancer risk (PRSER-/ER+). Furthermore, its effect was minimally attenuated when adjusted for PRSER-/ER+, suggesting that the ROR-P PRS provides additional prognostic information beyond ER status. In summary, we used integrated analysis of germline SNP and tumor gene expression data to construct a PRS associated with aggressive tumor biology and worse survival. These findings could potentially enhance risk stratification for breast cancer screening and prevention.

Summary: Background: Prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels are influenced by genetic variation unrelated to prostate cancer risk. Whether a genetic predisposition to a higher PSA level predisposes to a diagnostic work-up for prostate cancer is not known. Methods: Participants were 3110 men of African and European ancestries ages 45–70, without prostate cancer and with a baseline PSA < 4 ng/mL, undergoing routine clinical PSA screening. The exposure was a polygenic score (PGS) comprising 111 single nucleotide polymorphisms associated with PSA level, but not prostate cancer. We tested whether the PGS was associated with a: 1) PSA value > 4 ng/mL, 2) International Classification of Diseases (ICD) code for an elevated PSA, 3) encounter with a urologist, or 4) prostate biopsy. Multivariable Cox proportional hazards models were adjusted for age and genetic principal components. Analyses were stratified by age (45–59 years, and 60–70 years old). Association estimates are per standard deviation change in the PGS. Findings: The median age was 56.6 years, and 2118 (68%) participants were 45–59 years. The median (IQR) baseline PSA level was 1.0 (0.6–1.7) ng/mL. Among men ages 45–59, the PGS was associated with a PSA > 4 (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.35 [95% CI, 1.17–1.57], p = 4.5 × 10−5), an ICD code for elevated PSA (HR = 1.30 [1.12–1.52], p = 8.0 × 10−4), a urological evaluation (HR = 1.34 [1.14–1.57], p = 4.8 × 10−4), and undergoing a prostate biopsy (HR = 1.35 [1.11–1.64], p = 0.002). Among men ages 60–70, association effect sizes were smaller and not significant. Interpretation: A predisposition toward higher PSA levels was associated with clinical evaluations of an elevated PSA among men ages 45–59 years. Funding: National Institutes of Health (NIH).

Abstract Background Up to one of every six individuals diagnosed with one cancer will be diagnosed with a second primary cancer in their lifetime. Genetic factors contributing to the development of multiple primary cancers, beyond known cancer syndromes, have been underexplored. Methods To characterize genetic susceptibility to multiple cancers, we conducted a pan-cancer, whole-exome sequencing study of individuals drawn from two large multi-ancestry populations (6429 cases, 165,853 controls). We created two groupings of individuals diagnosed with multiple primary cancers: (1) an overall combined set with at least two cancers across any of 36 organ sites and (2) cancer-specific sets defined by an index cancer at one of 16 organ sites with at least 50 cases from each study population. We then investigated whether variants identified from exome sequencing were associated with these sets of multiple cancer cases in comparison to individuals with one and, separately, no cancers. Results We identified 22 variant-phenotype associations, 10 of which have not been previously discovered and were significantly overrepresented among individuals with multiple cancers, compared to those with a single cancer. Conclusions Overall, we describe variants and genes that may play a fundamental role in the development of multiple primary cancers and improve our understanding of shared mechanisms underlying carcinogenesis.

IntroductionA single-arm pre-post pilot study in an academic setting found that pre-consultation decision support was associated with improved patient knowledge among men with early-stage prostate cancer. We now report on exploratory analyses from a controlled study featuring patients from both academic and community settings.MethodsWe enrolled 58 men to usual care and 61 men to the intervention. We evaluated whether the intervention was associated with patients answering key knowledge items correctly just before their urology visit.ResultsJust prior to the urology visit, 39/56 or 70% in the intervention group replied correctly to key knowledge items, compared to 31/55 or 56% in the usual care group (p=0.15). At baseline, the intervention group started with 42/60 or 70% correct and the usual care group started with 28/56 or 50% (p=0.03). This imbalance at baseline created a ceiling effect: more men in the usual care group had room to improve on their knowledge scores. Indeed, seven men moved from incorrect to correct in the usual care group, versus 5 in the intervention group; and five men in the intervention group moved from correct to incorrect versus 3 in the usual care group (p=0.44).DiscussionIn addition to small sample size, reasons for the null findings may include clustering of highly educated participants at the academic site combined with over-representation of academic site participants in the intervention group. We confirmed, from the pilot study, the feasibility of using pre-health student interns as health coaches. Future research should explore whether increasing adoption of telehealth will improve the feasibility of delivering pre-visit decision support in community settings.

Background: Although the Decipher genomic classifier has been validated as a prognostic tool for several prostate cancer endpoints, little is known about its role in assessing the risk of biopsy reclassification for patients on active surveillance, a key event that often triggers treatment. Objective: To evaluate the association between Decipher genomic classifier scores and biopsy Gleason upgrading among patients on active surveillance. Design, setting, and participants: This was a retrospective cohort study among patients with low- and favorable intermediate-risk prostate cancer on active surveillance who underwent biopsy-based Decipher testing as part of their clinical care. Outcome measurements and statistical analysis: We evaluated the association between the Decipher score and any increase in biopsy Gleason grade group (GG) using univariable and multivariable logistic regression. We compared the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) for models comprising baseline clinical variables with or without the Decipher score. Results and limitations: We identified 133 patients for inclusion with a median age of 67.7 yr and median prostate-specific of 5.6 ng/ml. At enrollment, 75.9% had GG1 and 24.1% had GG2 disease. Forty-three patients experienced biopsy upgrading. On multivariable logistic regression, the Decipher score was significantly associated with biopsy upgrading (odds ratio 1.37 per 0.10 unit increase, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.05–1.79; p = 0.02). The Decipher score was associated with upgrading among patients with biopsy GG 1 disease, but not GG2 disease. The discriminative ability of a clinical model (AUC 0.63, 95% CI 0.51–0.74) was improved by integration of the Decipher score (AUC 0.69, 95% CI 0.58–0.80). Conclusions: The Decipher genomic classifier score was associated with short-term biopsy Gleason upgrading among patients on active surveillance. Patient summary: The results from this study indicate that among patients with prostate cancer undergoing active surveillance, those with higher Decipher scores were more likely to have higher-grade disease found over time. These findings indicate that the Decipher test might be useful for guiding the intensity of monitoring during active surveillance, such as more frequent biopsy for patients with higher scores.

BackgroundComplex systems models of breast cancer have previously focused on prediction of prognosis and clinical events for individual women. There is a need for understanding breast cancer at the population level for public health decision-making, for identifying gaps in epidemiologic knowledge and for the education of the public as to the complexity of this most common of cancers.Methods and findingsWe developed an agent-based model of breast cancer for the women of the state of California using data from the U.S. Census, the California Health Interview Survey, the California Cancer Registry, the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey and the literature. The model was implemented in the Julia programming language and R computing environment. The Paradigm II model development followed a transdisciplinary process with expertise from multiple relevant disciplinary experts from genetics to epidemiology and sociology with the goal of exploring both upstream determinants at the population level and pathophysiologic etiologic factors at the biologic level. The resulting model reproduces in a reasonable manner the overall age-specific incidence curve for the years 2008-2012 and incidence and relative risks due to specific risk factors such as BRCA1, polygenic risk, alcohol consumption, hormone therapy, breastfeeding, oral contraceptive use and scenarios for environmental toxin exposures.ConclusionsThe Paradigm II model illustrates the role of multiple etiologic factors in breast cancer from domains of biology, behavior and the environment. The value of the model is in providing a virtual laboratory to evaluate a wide range of potential interventions into the social, environmental and behavioral determinants of breast cancer at the population level.

Patricia Mabry and coauthors discuss application of systems approaches in cancer research.

Abstract Prostate cancer is the most commonly diagnosed neoplasm in American men. Although existing biomarkers may detect localized prostate cancer, additional strategies are necessary for improving detection and identifying aggressive disease that may require further intervention. One promising, minimally invasive biomarker is cell-free DNA (cfDNA), which consist of short DNA fragments released into circulation by dying or lysed cells that may reflect underlying cancer. Here we investigated whether differences in cfDNA concentration and cfDNA fragment size could improve the sensitivity for detecting more advanced and aggressive prostate cancer. This study included 268 individuals: 34 healthy controls, 112 men with localized prostate cancer who underwent radical prostatectomy (RP), and 122 men with metastatic castration-resistant prostate cancer (mCRPC). Plasma cfDNA concentration and fragment size were quantified with the Qubit 3.0 and the 2100 Bioanalyzer. The potential relationship between cfDNA concentration or fragment size and localized or mCRPC prostate cancer was evaluated with descriptive statistics, logistic regression, and area under the curve analysis with cross-validation. Plasma cfDNA concentrations were elevated in mCRPC patients in comparison to localized disease (OR5ng/mL = 1.34, P = 0.027) or to being a control (OR5ng/mL = 1.69, P = 0.034). Decreased average fragment size was associated with an increased risk of localized disease compared to controls (OR5bp = 0.77, P = 0.0008). This study suggests that while cfDNA concentration can identify mCRPC patients, it is unable to distinguish between healthy individuals and patients with localized prostate cancer. In addition to PSA, average cfDNA fragment size may be an alternative that can differentiate between healthy individuals and those with localized disease, but the low sensitivity and specificity results in an imperfect diagnostic marker. While quantification of cfDNA may provide a quick, cost-effective approach to help guide treatment decisions in advanced disease, its use is limited in the setting of localized prostate cancer.

While genetic loci shared between cancer types have been identified, cross-cancer relationships for polygenic risk scores have not been well studied. Here, the authors have developed polygenic risk scores for 16 cancers in two large cohorts and identified positive and inverse cross-cancer associations.

Predicting cancer risk requires large datasets and sophisticated models. Here the authors integrate polygenic risk scores and modifiable risk factors for multiple cancers in the UK Biobank, improving general risk prediction and distinguishing cases where genetic or lifestyle factors have stronger associations.

Abstract Background Humans and viruses have co-evolved for millennia resulting in a complex host genetic architecture. Understanding the genetic mechanisms of immune response to viral infection provides insight into disease etiology and therapeutic opportunities. Methods We conducted a comprehensive study including genome-wide and transcriptome-wide association analyses to identify genetic loci associated with immunoglobulin G antibody response to 28 antigens for 16 viruses using serological data from 7924 European ancestry participants in the UK Biobank cohort. Results Signals in human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class II region dominated the landscape of viral antibody response, with 40 independent loci and 14 independent classical alleles, 7 of which exhibited pleiotropic effects across viral families. We identified specific amino acid (AA) residues that are associated with seroreactivity, the strongest associations presented in a range of AA positions within DRβ1 at positions 11, 13, 71, and 74 for Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), Varicella zoster virus (VZV), human herpesvirus 7, (HHV7), and Merkel cell polyomavirus (MCV). Genome-wide association analyses discovered 7 novel genetic loci outside the HLA associated with viral antibody response (P

Pleiotropic loci and genome-wide genetic correlations have identified shared heritability across some types of cancers. Here, the authors perform genome-wide association studies and characterize pan-cancer heritability and pleiotropy in individuals of European ancestry across 18 cancer types from two large cohorts.

Abstract Background Cell-free DNA’s (cfDNA) use as a biomarker in cancer is challenging due to genetic heterogeneity of malignancies and rarity of tumor-derived molecules. Here we describe and demonstrate a novel machine-learning guided panel design strategy for improving the detection of tumor variants in cfDNA. Using this approach, we first generated a model to classify and score candidate variants for inclusion on a prostate cancer targeted sequencing panel. We then used this panel to screen tumor variants from prostate cancer patients with localized disease in both in silico and hybrid capture settings. Methods Whole Genome Sequence (WGS) data from 550 prostate tumors was analyzed to build a targeted sequencing panel of single point and small (

Abstract: Persons of African ancestry (AA) have a twofold higher risk for multiple myeloma (MM) compared with persons of European ancestry (EA). Genome-wide association studies (GWASs) support a genetic contribution to MM etiology in individuals of EA. Little is known about genetic risk factors for MM in individuals of AA. We performed a meta-analysis of 2 GWASs of MM in 1813 cases and 8871 controls and conducted an admixture mapping scan to identify risk alleles. We fine-mapped the 23 known susceptibility loci to find markers that could better capture MM risk in individuals of AA and constructed a polygenic risk score (PRS) to assess the aggregated effect of known MM risk alleles. In GWAS meta-analysis, we identified 2 suggestive novel loci located at 9p24.3 and 9p13.1 at P < 1 × 10−6; however, no genome-wide significant association was noted. In admixture mapping, we observed a genome-wide significant inverse association between local AA at 2p24.1-23.1 and MM risk in AA individuals. Of the 23 known EA risk variants, 20 showed directional consistency, and 9 replicated at P < .05 in AA individuals. In 8 regions, we identified markers that better capture MM risk in persons with AA. AA individuals with a PRS in the top 10% had a 1.82-fold (95% confidence interval, 1.56-2.11) increased MM risk compared with those with average risk (25%-75%). The strongest functional association was between the risk allele for variant rs56219066 at 5q15 and lower ELL2 expression (P = 5.1 × 10−12). Our study shows that common genetic variation contributes to MM risk in individuals with AA.

The role of impaired lung function in lung cancer etiology is complex due to the relation of cigarette smoking to both conditions. Here, supported by Mendelian randomization analysis the authors find a link between pulmonary function impairment and lung cancer risk beyond smoking, implicating immune-related pathways

Summary: Men diagnosed with low-risk prostate cancer (PC) are increasingly electing active surveillance (AS) as their initial management strategy. While this may reduce the side effects of treatment for PC, many men on AS eventually convert to active treatment. PC is one of the most heritable cancers, and genetic factors that predispose to aggressive tumors may help distinguish men who are more likely to discontinue AS. To investigate this, we undertook a multi-institutional genome-wide association study (GWAS) of 5,222 PC patients and 1,139 other patients from replication cohorts, all of whom initially elected AS and were followed over time for the potential outcome of conversion from AS to active treatment. In the GWAS we detected 18 variants associated with conversion, 15 of which were not previously associated with PC risk. With a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS), we found two genes associated with conversion (MAST3, p = 6.9 × 10−7 and GAB2, p = 2.0 × 10−6). Moreover, increasing values of a previously validated 269-variant genetic risk score (GRS) for PC was positively associated with conversion (e.g., comparing the highest to the two middle deciles gave a hazard ratio [HR] = 1.13; 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.94–1.36); whereas decreasing values of a 36-variant GRS for prostate-specific antigen (PSA) levels were positively associated with conversion (e.g., comparing the lowest to the two middle deciles gave a HR = 1.25; 95% CI, 1.04–1.50). These results suggest that germline genetics may help inform and individualize the decision of AS—or the intensity of monitoring on AS—versus treatment for the initial management of patients with low-risk PC.

In prostate cancer, investigating aberrant gene expression may shed light on disease etiology. Here, the authors imputed expression transcriptome-wide for 233,955 European ancestry men, discovering and replicating the associations between prostatic expression for select genes and prostate cancer risk, including the highly prevalent gene fusion partner TMPRSS2. The authors furthermore integrate diverse functional genomic datasets to interpret the epigenetic mechanisms by which the implicated risk variants and genes modulate disease risk.

Abstract Our objective was to assess the relationship between hyperbilirubinemia with and without kernicterus and metabolic profile at newborn screening. Included were 1,693,658 infants divided into a training or testing subset in a ratio of 3:1. Forty‐two metabolites were analyzed using logistic regression (odds ratios (ORs), area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), 95% confidence intervals (CIs)). Several metabolite patterns remained consistent across gestational age groups for hyperbilirubinemia without kernicterus. Thyroid stimulating hormone (TSH) and C‐18:2 were decreased, whereas tyrosine and C‐3 were increased in infants across groupings. Increased C‐3 was also observed for kernicterus (OR: 3.17; 95% CI: 1.18–8.53). Thirty‐one metabolites were associated with hyperbilirubinemia without kernicterus in the training set. Phenylalanine (OR: 1.91; 95% CI: 1.85–1.97), ornithine (OR: 0.76; 95% 0.74–0.77), and isoleucine + leucine (OR: 0.63; 95% CI: 0.61–0.65) were the most strongly associated. This study showed that newborn metabolic function is associated with hyperbilirubinemia with and without kernicterus.

Sample automation and management is increasingly important as the number and size of population-scale and high-throughput projects grow. This is particularly the case in large-scale population studies where sample size is far outpacing the commonly used 96-well plate format. To facilitate management and transfer of samples in this format, we present Samasy, a web-based application for the construction of a sample database, intuitive display of sample and batch information, and facilitation of automated sample transfer or subset. Samasy is designed with ease-of-use in mind, can be quickly set up, and runs in any web browser.

Summary: The majority of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) have been developed and optimized in individuals of European ancestry and may have limited generalizability across other ancestral populations. Understanding aspects of PRSs that contribute to this issue and determining solutions is complicated by disease-specific genetic architecture and limited knowledge of sharing of causal variants and effect sizes across populations. Motivated by these challenges, we undertook a simulation study to assess the relationship between ancestry and the potential bias in PRSs developed in European ancestry populations. Our simulations show that the magnitude of this bias increases with increasing divergence from European ancestry, and this is attributed to population differences in linkage disequilibrium and allele frequencies of European-discovered variants, likely as a result of genetic drift. Importantly, we find that including into the PRS variants discovered in African ancestry individuals has the potential to achieve unbiased estimates of genetic risk across global populations and admixed individuals. We confirm our simulation findings in an analysis of hemoglobin A1c (HbA1c), asthma, and prostate cancer in the UK Biobank. Given the demonstrated improvement in PRS prediction accuracy, recruiting larger diverse cohorts will be crucial—and potentially even necessary—for enabling accurate and equitable genetic risk prediction across populations.

Risk factors that contribute to inter-individual differences in the age-of-onset of allergic diseases are poorly understood. The aim of this study was to identify genetic risk variants associated with the age at which symptoms of allergic disease first develop, considering information from asthma, hay fever and eczema. Self-reported age-of-onset information was available for 117,130 genotyped individuals of European ancestry from the UK Biobank study. For each individual, we identified the earliest age at which asthma, hay fever and/or eczema was first diagnosed and performed a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of this combined age-of-onset phenotype. We identified 50 variants with a significant independent association (P

Prostate-specific antigen is used as a biomarker of prostate cancer, but levels can be affected by other factors not related to cancer. Here, the authors find genes associated with prostate specific antigen levels in healthy men, which could be used to reduce over-diagnosis and over-treatment.

Use of general linear mixed models (GLMMs) in genetic variance analysis can quantify the relative contribution of additive effects from genetic variation on a given trait. Here, Jonathan Mosley and colleagues apply GLMM in a phenome-wide analysis and show that genetic variations in the HLA region are associated with 44 phenotypes, 5 phenotypes which were not previously reported in GWASes.

Over one hundred loci have been identified to be associated with the familial risk of prostate cancer but the functional effects are poorly understood. Here the authors use single-nucleotide variant and epigentic data to show an underlying genetic architecture marked by histone modification.

Simultaneous analysis of genetic associations with multiple phenotypes may reveal shared genetic susceptibility across traits (pleiotropy). For a locus exhibiting overall pleiotropy, it is important to identify which specific traits underlie this association. We propose a Bayesian meta-analysis approach (termed CPBayes) that uses summary-level data across multiple phenotypes to simultaneously measure the evidence of aggregate-level pleiotropic association and estimate an optimal subset of traits associated with the risk locus. This method uses a unified Bayesian statistical framework based on a spike and slab prior. CPBayes performs a fully Bayesian analysis by employing the Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) technique Gibbs sampling. It takes into account heterogeneity in the size and direction of the genetic effects across traits. It can be applied to both cohort data and separate studies of multiple traits having overlapping or non-overlapping subjects. Simulations show that CPBayes can produce higher accuracy in the selection of associated traits underlying a pleiotropic signal than the subset-based meta-analysis ASSET. We used CPBayes to undertake a genome-wide pleiotropic association study of 22 traits in the large Kaiser GERA cohort and detected six independent pleiotropic loci associated with at least two phenotypes. This includes a locus at chromosomal region 1q24.2 which exhibits an association simultaneously with the risk of five different diseases: Dermatophytosis, Hemorrhoids, Iron Deficiency, Osteoporosis and Peripheral Vascular Disease. We provide an R-package 'CPBayes' implementing the proposed method.