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Abstract Objective A growing body of evidence suggests patients with late‐onset seizures are at an increased risk of stroke, but the potential for reducing cardiovascular morbidity through risk factor screening and management is unknown. We aim to determine whether individuals with new‐onset unprovoked seizures after middle age should undergo vascular risk assessment. The long follow‐up needed to assess stroke risk and the known benefit of vascular risk factor modification make a standard RCT logistically and ethically challenging. Instead, we propose and have developed a protocol for a cluster project assessing the effect of vascular risk factor screening in an intervention trial as well as a cohort study. Methods Participating neurology clinics will implement standard cardiovascular risk factor assessment into the routine evaluation for individuals aged ≥50 years attending their first specialized consultation after an unprovoked seizure, excluding those with progressive brain disease. The project has two interlinked components: a prospective single group trial, in which risk factor assessment is performed and subsequent management is followed for one year; and a register‐based cohort study examining the long‐term effects of the intervention on a system level by comparing patients attending initial consultations in the 2 years after start of the study, with patients seen in the four preceding years at the same clinics. Analysis The primary outcome of the intervention trial is the proportion of patients receiving subsequent pharmacological treatment. The primary outcome of the cohort study is the incidence of acute stroke in the Swedish Stroke Register. Ethics and Dissemination Swedish Ethical Review Authority approval (which is valid for 2 years only) will be sought when funding is obtained. The results will be disseminated through peer‐reviewed scientific publications. Registration Details The study will be registered at clinicaltrials.gov. Plain Language Summary A first seizure in a middle‐aged or older person indicates a higher risk of stroke. It is not known whether investigating and treating blood pressure, blood cholesterol, or similar risk factors after a first seizure is an effective way to prevent stroke. A traditional clinical study would need too many patients and it would be unethical not to treat the control group. We have designed a study in which participating neurology departments change their practice to test and treat vascular risk factors. Patients are then compared to historic controls using registered data.

Abstract Imbalances in electrolyte concentrations can have severe consequences, but accurate and accessible measurements could improve patient outcomes. The current measurement method based on blood tests is accurate but invasive and time-consuming and is often unavailable for example in remote locations or an ambulance setting. In this paper, we explore the use of deep neural networks (DNNs) for regression tasks to accurately predict continuous electrolyte concentrations from electrocardiograms (ECGs), a quick and widely adopted tool. We analyze our DNN models on a novel dataset of over 290,000 ECGs across four major electrolytes and compare their performance with traditional machine learning models. For improved understanding, we also study the full spectrum from continuous predictions to a binary classification of extreme concentration levels. Finally, we investigate probabilistic regression approaches and explore uncertainty estimates for enhanced clinical usefulness. Our results show that DNNs outperform traditional models but model performance varies significantly across different electrolytes. While discretization leads to good classification performance, it does not address the original problem of continuous concentration level prediction. Probabilistic regression has practical potential, but our uncertainty estimates are not perfectly calibrated. Our study is therefore a first step towards developing an accurate and reliable ECG-based method for electrolyte concentration level prediction—a method with high potential impact within multiple clinical scenarios.

Abstract Aims This study aimed to characterize a contemporary population with subtypes of incident or prevalent heart failure (HF) based on reduced (HFrEF), mildly reduced, or preserved (HFpEF) left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) and to assess how outcomes, healthcare, treatments, and healthcare costs vary between each subtype of incident HF. Methods and results Using Swedish data from the CardioRenal and Metabolic disease Heart Failure (CaReMe HF) study, updated to cover a more recent time period, this population‐based study characterized patients from Stockholm County, Sweden, with incident HF (patients with a first HF diagnosis between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2019) or prevalent HF (patients with a first HF diagnosis before 1 January 2020). Patients with incident HF had LVEF measured by echocardiography within ±90 days of their first HF diagnosis, and patients with prevalent HF within 5 years prior to the index date. The 13 375 patients with prevalent HF (39.2% women, mean age 73.9 years) had multiple comorbidities (cardiovascular diseases, chronic kidney disease, diabetes, and cancer). These were already highly prevalent at the time of the first HF diagnosis in the 8042 patients with incident HF (40.5% women, mean age 72.3 years). Patients with incident HFpEF received less specialist HF care at outpatient secondary care facilities following their first HF diagnosis than those with incident HFrEF. Patients with HFrEF had higher risks of complications and exerted a higher burden, in terms of care for and costs of HF, on the healthcare system. Conclusions This study of contemporary patients with incident HF demonstrates that those with HFpEF and HFrEF differ considerably in terms of clinical presentation, prognosis, and care, highlighting a potential to improve HF outcomes.

Background Coronary atherosclerosis detected by imaging is a marker of elevated cardiovascular risk. However, imaging involves large resources and exposure to radiation. The aim was, therefore, to test whether nonimaging data, specifically data that can be self‐reported, could be used to identify individuals with moderate to severe coronary atherosclerosis. Methods and Results We used data from the population‐based SCAPIS (Swedish CardioPulmonary BioImage Study) in individuals with coronary computed tomography angiography (n=25 182) and coronary artery calcification score (n=28 701), aged 50 to 64 years without previous ischemic heart disease. We developed a risk prediction tool using variables that could be assessed from home (self‐report tool). For comparison, we also developed a tool using variables from laboratory tests, physical examinations, and self‐report (clinical tool) and evaluated both models using receiver operating characteristic curve analysis, external validation, and benchmarked against factors in the pooled cohort equation. The self‐report tool (n=14 variables) and the clinical tool (n=23 variables) showed high‐to‐excellent discriminative ability to identify a segment involvement score ≥4 (area under the curve 0.79 and 0.80, respectively) and significantly better than the pooled cohort equation (area under the curve 0.76, P

Abstract Background Breathlessness is common in the population and can be related to a range of medical conditions. We aimed to evaluate the burden of breathlessness related to different medical conditions in a middle-aged population. Methods Cross-sectional analysis of the population-based Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study of adults aged 50–64 years. Breathlessness (modified Medical Research Council [mMRC] ≥ 2) was evaluated in relation to self-reported symptoms, stress, depression; physician-diagnosed conditions; measured body mass index (BMI), spirometry, venous haemoglobin concentration, coronary artery calcification and stenosis [computer tomography (CT) angiography], and pulmonary emphysema (high-resolution CT). For each condition, the prevalence and breathlessness population attributable fraction (PAF) were calculated, overall and by sex, smoking history, and presence/absence of self-reported cardiorespiratory disease. Results We included 25,948 people aged 57.5 ± [SD] 4.4; 51% women; 37% former and 12% current smokers; 43% overweight (BMI 25.0–29.9), 21% obese (BMI ≥ 30); 25% with respiratory disease, 14% depression, 9% cardiac disease, and 3% anemia. Breathlessness was present in 3.7%. Medical conditions most strongly related to the breathlessness prevalence were (PAF 95%CI): overweight and obesity (59.6–66.0%), stress (31.6–76.8%), respiratory disease (20.1–37.1%), depression (17.1–26.6%), cardiac disease (6.3–12.7%), anemia (0.8–3.3%), and peripheral arterial disease (0.3–0.8%). Stress was the main factor in women and current smokers. Conclusion Breathlessness mainly relates to overweight/obesity and stress and to a lesser extent to comorbidities like respiratory, depressive, and cardiac disorders among middle-aged people in a high-income setting—supporting the importance of lifestyle interventions to reduce the burden of breathlessness in the population.

Abstract Background It is well documented that smokers suffer increased risk of postoperative complications after medical surgery, for example delayed healing and increased risk of infection. It is also known that preoperative smoking cessation can reduce the risk of these complications. Because of this there are guidelines regarding preoperative smoking cessation in non-oral medical surgery. There are however no specific guidelines regarding oral surgical procedures, such as surgical extractions, dentoalveolar surgery, periodontal surgery, or dental implantation. Nevertheless, it is common that dentists and oral surgeons recommend smoking cessation pre to oral surgical procedures. The aim with this systematic review was to see if there are any evidence in the literature, supporting preoperative smoking cessation in oral surgical procedures. Methods A systematic search of the electronic databases PubMed, Scopus, Web of Science, and Cochrane was conducted to identify studies addressing the effect of preoperative smoking cessation in oral surgical procedures. Included publications were subjected to preidentified inclusion criterion. Six examiners performed the eligibility and quality assessment of relevant studies. Risk of bias was assessed using ROBINS-I and RoB 2. Certainty assessment was carried out using GRADE. Results The initial search resulted in 2255 records, and after removal of 148 duplicates, 16 articles met an acceptable level of relevance. These were read in full text, whereof 12 articles were excluded, due to different intervention, outcome, or study design than stated in the review protocol. One study remained with moderate risk of bias and three were excluded due to high risk of bias. Conclusion This systematic review could not determine the effect of smoking cessation pre to oral surgical procedures, in smokers. This indicates lack of knowledge in the effects of smoking cessation. We also conclude a lack of knowledge in how to design smoking cessation in the most effective way.

Objectives Identify the windows of opportunity for the diagnosis of chronic kidney disease (CKD) and the prevention of its adverse outcomes and quantify the potential population gains of such prevention.Design and setting Observational, population-wide study of residents in the Stockholm and Skåne regions of Sweden between 1 January 2015 and 31 December 2020.Participants All patients who did not yet have a diagnosis of CKD in healthcare but had CKD according to laboratory measurements of CKD biomarkers available in electronic health records.Outcome measures We assessed the proportions of the patient population that received a subsequent diagnosis of CKD in healthcare, that used guideline-directed pharmacological therapy (statins, renin-angiotensin aldosterone system inhibitors (RAASi) and/or sodium-glucose cotransporter-2 inhibitors (SGLT2i)) and that experienced adverse outcomes (all-cause mortality, cardiovascular mortality or major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE)). The potential to prevent adverse outcomes in CKD was assessed using simulations of guideline-directed pharmacological therapy in untreated subsets of the study population.Results We identified 99 382 patients with undiagnosed CKD during the study period. Only 33% of those received a subsequent diagnosis of CKD in healthcare after 5 years. The proportion that used statins or RAASi was of similar size to the proportion that didn’t, regardless of how advanced their CKD was. The use of SGLT2i was negligible. In simulations of optimal treatment, 22% of the 21 870 deaths, 27% of the 14 310 cardiovascular deaths and 39% of the 22 224 MACE could have been avoided if every patient who did not use an indicated medication for their laboratory-confirmed CKD was treated with guideline-directed pharmacological therapy for CKD.Conclusions While we noted underdiagnosis and undertreatment of CKD in this large contemporary population, we also identified a substantial realisable potential to improve CKD outcomes and reduce its burden by treating patients early with guideline-directed pharmacological therapy.

Background Heart failure guidelines have recently introduced a narrow category with mildly reduced left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) (heart failure with mildly reduced ejection fraction; LVEF 41%–49%) between the previous categories of reduced (heart failure with reduced ejection fraction; LVEF ≤40%) and preserved (heart failure with preserved ejection fraction; LVEF ≥50%) ejection fraction. Grouping of continuous measurements into narrow categories can be questioned if their variability is high. Methods and Results We constructed a cohort of all 9716 new cases of chronic heart failure with an available LVEF in Stockholm, Sweden, from January 1, 2015, until December 31, 2020. All values of LVEF were collected over time, and patients were followed up until death, moving out of Stockholm, or end of study. Mixed models were used to quantify within‐person variance in LVEF, and multistate Markov models, with death as an absorbing state, to quantify the stability of LVEF categories. LVEF values followed a normal distribution. The SD of the within‐person variance in LVEF over time was 7.4%. The mean time spent in any LVEF category before transition to another category was on average

Abstract Background Prior studies suggest a link between metabolic dysfunction-associated steatotic liver disease (MASLD) and incident arrhythmias, including atrial fibrillation (AF). However, robust data are lacking from cohorts with liver histology, which remains the gold standard for staging MASLD severity. Methods This population-based cohort included all Swedish adults with histologically-confirmed MASLD and without prior cardiac arrhythmias (1966–2016; n = 11,206). MASLD was defined from prospectively-recorded histopathology, and characterized as simple steatosis, non-fibrotic steatohepatitis (MASH), non-cirrhotic fibrosis, or cirrhosis. MASLD patients were matched to ≤ 5 controls without MASLD or arrhythmias, by age, sex, calendar year and county (n = 51,856). Using Cox proportional hazards modeling, we calculated multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (aHRs) for incident arrhythmias (including AF, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias, ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest). Results Over a median follow-up of 10.8 years, incident arrhythmias were confirmed in 1351 MASLD patients (10.3/1000 person-years [PY]) and 6493 controls (8.7/1000PY; difference = 1.7/1000PY; aHR = 1.30, 95%CI 1.22–1.38), and MASLD patients had significantly higher rates of incident AF (difference = 0.9/1000PY; aHR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.18–1.35). Rates of both overall arrhythmias and AF were significantly elevated across all MASLD histological groups, particularly cirrhosis (differences, 8.5/1000PY and 5.3/1000PY, respectively). In secondary analyses, MASLD patients also had significantly higher rates of incident ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest (aHR = 1.53, 95%CI 1.30–1.80), bradyarrhythmias (aHR = 1.26, 95%CI 1.06–1.48), and other supraventricular arrhythmias (aHR = 1.27, 95%CI 1.00–1.62), compared to controls. Conclusions Compared to matched controls, patients with biopsy-confirmed MASLD had modest but significantly higher incidence of cardiac arrhythmias, including AF, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias and ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest. Excess risk was observed across all stages of MASLD and was highest with cirrhosis.

Abstract Background Patients with type 2 diabetes have an increased risk of death and cardiovascular events and people with diabetes or prediabetes have been found to have increased atherosclerotic burden in the coronary and carotid arteries. This study will estimate the cross-sectional prevalence of atherosclerosis in the coronary and carotid arteries in individuals with prediabetes and diabetes, compared with normoglycaemic individuals in a large population-based cohort. Methods The 30,154 study participants, 50–64 years, were categorized according to their fasting glycaemic status or self-reported data as normoglycaemic, prediabetes, and previously undetected or known diabetes. Prevalence of affected coronary artery segments, severity of stenosis and coronary artery calcium score (CACS) were determined by coronary computed tomography angiography. Total atherosclerotic burden was assessed in the 11 clinically most relevant segments using the Segment Involvement Score and as the presence of any coronary atherosclerosis. The presence of atherosclerotic plaque in the carotid arteries was determined by ultrasound examination. Results Study participants with prediabetes (n = 4804, 16.0%) or diabetes (n = 2282, 7.6%) had greater coronary artery plaque burden, more coronary stenosis and higher CACS than normoglycaemic participants (all, p

Abstract Resting heart rate is associated with cardiovascular diseases and mortality in observational and Mendelian randomization studies. The aims of this study are to extend the number of resting heart rate associated genetic variants and to obtain further insights in resting heart rate biology and its clinical consequences. A genome-wide meta-analysis of 100 studies in up to 835,465 individuals reveals 493 independent genetic variants in 352 loci, including 68 genetic variants outside previously identified resting heart rate associated loci. We prioritize 670 genes and in silico annotations point to their enrichment in cardiomyocytes and provide insights in their ECG signature. Two-sample Mendelian randomization analyses indicate that higher genetically predicted resting heart rate increases risk of dilated cardiomyopathy, but decreases risk of developing atrial fibrillation, ischemic stroke, and cardio-embolic stroke. We do not find evidence for a linear or non-linear genetic association between resting heart rate and all-cause mortality in contrast to our previous Mendelian randomization study. Systematic alteration of key differences between the current and previous Mendelian randomization study indicates that the most likely cause of the discrepancy between these studies arises from false positive findings in previous one-sample MR analyses caused by weak-instrument bias at lower P-value thresholds. The results extend our understanding of resting heart rate biology and give additional insights in its role in cardiovascular disease development.

BackgroundAlthough previous evidence has suggested an increased risk of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in patients with inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), its association with arrhythmias is inconclusive. In this study, we aimed to explore the long-term risk of arrhythmias in patients with IBD.Methods and findingsThrough a nationwide histopathology cohort, we identified patients with biopsy-confirmed IBD in Sweden during 1969 to 2017, including Crohn's disease (CD: n = 24,954; median age at diagnosis: 38.4 years; female: 52.2%), ulcerative colitis (UC: n = 46,856; 42.1 years; 46.3%), and IBD-unclassified (IBD-U: n = 12,067; 43.8 years; 49.6%), as well as their matched reference individuals and IBD-free full siblings. Outcomes included overall and specific arrhythmias (e.g., atrial fibrillation/flutter, bradyarrhythmias, other supraventricular arrhythmias, and ventricular arrhythmias/cardiac arrest). Flexible parametric survival models estimated hazard ratios (aHR) with 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs), after adjustment for birth year, sex, county of residence, calendar year, country of birth, educational attainment, number of healthcare visits, and cardiovascular-related comorbidities. Over a median of approximately 10 years of follow-up, 1,904 (7.6%) patients with CD, 4,154 (8.9%) patients with UC, and 990 (8.2%) patients with IBD-U developed arrhythmias, compared with 6.7%, 7.5%, and 6.0% in reference individuals, respectively. Compared with reference individuals, overall arrhythmias were increased in patients with CD [54.6 versus 46.1 per 10,000 person-years; aHR = 1.15 (95% CI [1.09, 1.21], P < 0.001)], patients with UC [64.7 versus 53.3 per 10,000 person-years; aHR = 1.14 (95% CI [1.10, 1.18], P < 0.001)], and patients with IBD-U [78.1 versus 53.5 per 10,000 person-years; aHR = 1.30 (95% CI [1.20, 1.41], P < 0.001)]. The increased risk persisted 25 years after diagnosis, corresponding to 1 extra arrhythmia case per 80 CD, 58 UC, and 29 IBD-U cases over the same period. Patients with IBD also had a significantly increased risk of specific arrhythmias, except for bradyarrhythmias. Sibling comparison analyses confirmed the main findings. Study limitations include lack of clinical data to define IBD activity, not considering the potential role of IBD medications and disease activity, and the potential residual confounding from unmeasured factors for arrhythmias.ConclusionsIn this study, we observed that patients with IBD were at an increased risk of developing arrhythmias. The excess risk persisted even 25 years after IBD diagnosis. Our findings indicate a need for awareness of this excess risk among healthcare professionals.

Background Impulse oscillometry (IOS) is sensitive in detecting lung function impairment. In small studies, impaired IOS relates better to respiratory symptoms than spirometry. We studied how IOS related to spirometry and respiratory symptoms in a large population of individuals (n=10 360) in a cross-sectional analysis. Methods Normal values for IOS and spirometry were defined in healthy, never-smoking individuals, aged 50–64 years, from the Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (n=3664 for IOS and 3608 for spirometry). For IOS, abnormal values for resistance at 5 Hz (R5) and at 20 Hz and area of reactance were defined using the 95th percentile. Abnormal reactance at 5 Hz for IOS and abnormal conventional spirometry indices (forced expiratory volume in 1 s (FEV1), forced and slow vital capacity and their ratios) were defined using the 5th percentile. Results Abnormal IOS parameters were found in 16% of individuals and were associated with increased odds ratios for nearly all respiratory symptoms when adjusted for age, gender and smoking. In individuals with normal spirometry, abnormal IOS resistance was related to cough and dyspnoea, while abnormal reactance was related to wheeze. In these individuals, the combination of abnormal R5 with abnormal reactance resulted in approximately two-fold higher likelihood for having cough, chronic bronchitis and dyspnoea, even when further adjusting for FEV1, expressed as % predicted. Conclusions Abnormal IOS is related to increased respiratory burden in middle-aged individuals with normal spirometry, especially when resistance and reactance parameters are combined. The different relationships between respiratory symptoms and reactance and resistance warrant further research.

Abstract Myocardial infarction diagnosis is a common challenge in the emergency department. In managed settings, deep learning-based models and especially convolutional deep models have shown promise in electrocardiogram (ECG) classification, but there is a lack of high-performing models for the diagnosis of myocardial infarction in real-world scenarios. We aimed to train and validate a deep learning model using ECGs to predict myocardial infarction in real-world emergency department patients. We studied emergency department patients in the Stockholm region between 2007 and 2016 that had an ECG obtained because of their presenting complaint. We developed a deep neural network based on convolutional layers similar to a residual network. Inputs to the model were ECG tracing, age, and sex; and outputs were the probabilities of three mutually exclusive classes: non-ST-elevation myocardial infarction (NSTEMI), ST-elevation myocardial infarction (STEMI), and control status, as registered in the SWEDEHEART and other registries. We used an ensemble of five models. Among 492,226 ECGs in 214,250 patients, 5,416 were recorded with an NSTEMI, 1,818 a STEMI, and 485,207 without a myocardial infarction. In a random test set, our model could discriminate STEMIs/NSTEMIs from controls with a C-statistic of 0.991/0.832 and had a Brier score of 0.001/0.008. The model obtained a similar performance in a temporally separated test set of the study sample, and achieved a C-statistic of 0.985 and a Brier score of 0.002 in discriminating STEMIs from controls in an external test set. We developed and validated a deep learning model with excellent performance in discriminating between control, STEMI, and NSTEMI on the presenting ECG of a real-world sample of the important population of all-comers to the emergency department. Hence, deep learning models for ECG decision support could be valuable in the emergency department.

Abstract Background Sodium glucose co-transporter-2 (SGLT2) inhibitors reduce the risk of kidney and heart failure events independent of glycemic effects. We assessed whether initiation of the SGLT2 inhibitor canagliflozin guided by multivariable predicted risk based on clinical characteristics and novel biomarkers is more efficient to prevent clinical outcomes compared to a strategy guided by HbA1c or urinary-albumin-creatinine ratio (UACR) alone. Methods We performed a post-hoc analysis of the CANVAS trial including 3713 patients with available biomarker measurements. We compared the number of composite kidney (defined as a sustained 40% decline in eGFR, chronic dialysis, kidney transplantation, or kidney death) and composite heart failure outcomes (defined as heart failure hospitalization or cardiovascular (CV) death) prevented per 1000 patients treated for 5 years when canagliflozin was initiated in patients according to HbA1c ≥ 7.5%, UACR, or multivariable risk models consisting of: (1) clinical characteristics, or (2) clinical characteristics and novel biomarkers. Differences in the rates of events prevented between strategies were tested by Chi2-statistic. Results After a median follow-up of 6.1 years, 144 kidney events were recorded. The final clinical model included age, previous history of CV disease, systolic blood pressure, UACR, hemoglobin, body weight, albumin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and randomized treatment assignment. The combined biomarkers model included all clinical characteristics, tumor necrosis factor receptor-1, kidney injury molecule-1, matrix metallopeptidase-7 and interleukin-6. Treating all patients with HbA1c ≥ 7.5% (n = 2809) would prevent 33.0 (95% CI 18.8 to 43.3 ) kidney events at a rate of 9.6 (95% CI 5.5 to 12.6) events prevented per 1000 patients treated for 5 years. The corresponding rates were 5.8 (95% CI 3.4 to 7.9), 16.6 (95% CI 9.5 to 22.0) (P < 0.001 versus HbA1c or UACR approach), and 17.5 (95% CI 10.0 to 23.0) (P < 0.001 versus HbA1c or UACR approach; P = 0.54 versus clinical model). Findings were similar for the heart failure outcome. Conclusion Initiation of canagliflozin based on an estimated risk-based approach prevented more kidney and heart failure outcomes compared to a strategy based on HbA1c or UACR alone. There was no apparent gain from adding novel biomarkers to the clinical risk model. These findings support the use of risk-based assessment using clinical markers to guide initiation of SGLT2 inhibitors in patients with type 2 diabetes.

Abstract Human gut microbiota produce a variety of molecules, some of which enter the bloodstream and impact health. Conversely, dietary or pharmacological compounds may affect the microbiota before entering the circulation. Characterization of these interactions is an important step towards understanding the effects of the gut microbiota on health. In this cross-sectional study, we used deep metagenomic sequencing and ultra-high-performance liquid chromatography linked to mass spectrometry for a detailed characterization of the gut microbiota and plasma metabolome, respectively, of 8583 participants invited at age 50 to 64 from the population-based Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study. Here, we find that the gut microbiota explain up to 46% of the variance of individual plasma metabolites and we present 997 associations between alpha diversity and plasma metabolites and 546,819 associations between specific gut metagenomic species and plasma metabolites in an online atlas ( https://gutsyatlas.serve.scilifelab.se/ ). We exemplify the potential of this resource by presenting novel associations between dietary factors and oral medication with the gut microbiome, and microbial species strongly associated with the uremic toxin p-cresol sulfate. This resource can be used as the basis for targeted studies of perturbation of specific metabolites and for identification of candidate plasma biomarkers of gut microbiota composition.

BackgroundTo quantify cardiovascular health (CVH), the American Heart Association (AHA) recently launched an updated construct of the “Life's Simple 7” (LS7) score, the “Life's Essential 8” (LE8) score. This study aims to analyse the association between both CVH scores and carotid artery plaques and to compare the predictive capacity of such scores for carotid plaques.MethodsRandomly recruited participants aged 50–64 years from the Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS) were analysed. According to the AHA definitions, two CVH scores were calculated: i) the LE8 score (0, worst CVH; 100, best CVH) and two different versions of the LS7 score [(0–7) and (0–14), 0 indicating the worst CVH]. Ultrasound-diagnosed carotid plaques were classified as no plaque, unilateral, and bilateral plaques. Associations were studied by adjusted multinomial logistic regression models and adjusted (marginal) prevalences, while comparison between LE8 and LS7 scores was performed through receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves.ResultsAfter exclusions, 28,870 participants remained for analysis (50.3% women). The odds for bilateral carotid plaques were almost five times higher in the lowest LE8 (

BackgroundDietary sodium has a dose-response relationship with cardiovascular disease, and sodium intake in Sweden exceeds national and international recommendations. Two thirds of dietary sodium intake comes from processed foods, and adults in Sweden eat more processed foods than any other European country. We hypothesized that sodium content in processed foods is higher in Sweden than in other countries. The aim of this study was to investigate sodium content in processed food items in Sweden, and how it differs from Australia, France, Hong Kong, South Africa, the United Kingdom and the United States.MethodsData were collected from retailers by trained research staff using standardized methods. Data were categorized into 10 food categories and compared using Kruskal-Wallis test of ranks. Sodium content in the food items was compared in mg sodium per 100 g of product, based on the nutritional content labels on the packages.ResultsCompared to other countries, Sweden had among the highest sodium content in the “dairy” and “convenience foods” categories, but among the lowest in “cereal and grain products,” “seafood and seafood products” and “snack foods” categories. Australia had the overall lowest sodium content, and the US the overall highest. The highest sodium content in most analyzed countries was found in the “meat and meat products” category. The highest median sodium content in any category was found among “sauces, dips, spreads and dressings” in Hong Kong.ConclusionThe sodium content differed substantially between countries in all food categories, although contrary to our hypothesis, processed foods overall had lower sodium content in Sweden than in most other included countries. Sodium content in processed food was nonetheless high also in Sweden, and especially so in increasingly consumed food categories, such as “convenience foods”.

Background The study aimed to show the relationship between a large number of circulating metabolites and subsequent cardiovascular disease (CVD) and subclinical markers of CVD in the general population. Methods and Results In 2278 individuals free from CVD in the EpiHealth study (aged 45–75 years, mean age 61 years, 50% women), 790 annotated nonxenobiotic metabolites were measured by mass spectroscopy (Metabolon). The same metabolites were measured in the PIVUS (Prospective Investigation of Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors) study (n=603, all aged 80 years, 50% women), in which cardiac and carotid artery pathologies were evaluated by ultrasound. During a median follow‐up of 8.6 years, 107 individuals experienced a CVD (fatal or nonfatal myocardial infarction, stroke, or heart failure) in EpiHealth. Using a false discovery rate of 0.05 for age‐ and sex‐adjusted analyses and P

Serum urate concentration can be studied in large datasets to find genetic and epigenetic loci that may be related to cardiometabolic traits. Here the authors identify and replicate 100 urate-associated CpGs, which provide insights into urate GWAS loci and shared CpGs of urate and cardiometabolic traits.

Many genetic loci have been identified to be associated with kidney disease, but the molecular mechanisms are not well understood. Here, the authors perform epigenome-wide association studies on kidney function measures to identify epigenetic marks and pathways involved in kidney function.

Abstract Background The metabolic syndrome (MetS) identifies persons with clustering of multiple cardiometabolic risk factors. The underlying pathology inducing this clustering is not fully known. We used a targeted proteomics assay to identify associations of circulating proteins with MetS and its components, cross-sectionally and longitudinally. Methods We explored and validated associations of 86 cardiovascular proteins, assessed using a proximity extension assay, with the MetS in two independent cohorts; the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS, n = 996) and Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM, n = 785). The analyses were adjusted for smoking, exercise habits, education, and energy and alcohol intake. Results Nine proteins were associated with all five components of the MetS in PIVUS using FDR

Background Ambulatory blood pressure monitoring (ABPM) is increasingly recommended for clinical use, but more knowledge about the prevalence and variability in ABPM-derived phenotypes in the general population is needed. We describe these parameters in the community-based Swedish CArdioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS) cohort. Methods We examined 5881 men and women aged 50–64 with 24-hour ABPM recordings using validated monitors. ABPM phenotypes were defined according to European guidelines. White coat hypertension was defined as elevated office BP (≥140/90 mmHg) with normal mean ambulatory BP (

Background A significant proportion of patients with ST‐segment–elevation myocardial infarction (MI) have no standard modifiable cardiovascular risk factors (SMuRFs) and have unexpected worse 30‐day outcomes compared with those with SMuRFs. The aim of this article is to examine outcomes of patients with non–ST‐segment–elevation MI in the absence of SMuRFs. Methods and Results Presenting features, management, and outcomes of patients with non–ST‐segment–elevation MI without SmuRFs (hypertension, diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, smoking) were compared with those with SmuRFs in the Swedish MI registry SWEDEHEART (Swedish Web‐System for Enhancement and Development of Evidence‐Based Care in Heart Disease Evaluated According to Recommended Therapies; 2005–2018). Cox proportional hazard models were used. Out of 99 718 patients with non–ST‐segment–elevation MI, 11 131 (11.2%) had no SMuRFs. Patients without SMuRFs had higher all‐cause and cardiovascular mortality at 30 days (hazard ratio [HR], 1.20 [95% CI, 1.10–1.30], P

Abstract Background Chronic kidney disease has been linked to cardiovascular disease and specifically ischemic heart disease (IHD), but large-scale population data in patients with immunoglobulin A nephropathy (IgAN) are missing. Objective To examine absolute and relative risks for IHD in patients with IgAN. Methods Population-based register-based cohort study in Sweden. We identified 3945 patients with biopsy-verified IgAN, and 19,272 age- and sex-matched reference individuals from the general population. To reduce residual confounding from genetic factors and early environmental factors we carried out secondary analyses, where we compared 3039 IgAN patients with 6729 siblings, whereas a spousal analysis consisted of 2377 married couples where one of the spouses had IgAN. Data on IHD and end-stage renal disease (ESRD) were retrieved from the nationwide Patient Register. Cox regression estimated hazard ratios (HRs) adjusted for matching variables, education, country of birth, cancer, diabetes mellitus, and other systemic inflammatory diseases. Results During a follow-up of 55,527 person-years (py; mean follow-up 14.1 years), 371 patients (9.4%) with IgAN developed IHD (6.7/1000 py), compared with 1070 (5.6%) in 287,677 py in reference individuals (3.7/1000 py). The corresponding adjusted HR was 1.86 (95%CI = 1.63–2.13), equivalent to one extra case of IHD per 34 IgAN patients followed-up for 10 years. HRs were similar in men and women with IgAN, but higher in the first year after diagnosis and in patients born outside the Nordic countries. Patients with IgAN were at increased risk of IHD also compared to siblings (HR = 2.07; 95%CI = 1.62–2-64) and spouses (HR = 1.91; 95%CI = 1.40–2.61). Conclusions In this nationwide population-based study, patients with IgAN were at an 86% increased risk of future IHD.

Background Renin‐angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitor—COVID‐19 studies, observational in design, appear to use biased methods that can distort the interaction between RAAS inhibitor use and COVID‐19 risk. This study assessed the extent of bias in that research and reevaluated RAAS inhibitor—COVID‐19 associations in studies without critical risk of bias. Methods and Results Searches were performed in MEDLINE, EMBASE, and CINAHL databases (December 1, 2019 to October 21, 2021) identifying studies that compared the risk of infection and/or severe COVID‐19 outcomes between those using or not using RAAS inhibitors (ie, angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II type‐I receptor blockers). Weighted hazard ratios (HR) and 95% CIs were extracted and pooled in fixed‐effects meta‐analyses, only from studies without critical risk of bias that assessed severe COVID‐19 outcomes. Of 169 relevant studies, 164 had critical risks of bias and were excluded. Ultimately, only two studies presented data relevant to the meta‐analysis. In 1 351 633 people with uncomplicated hypertension using a RAAS inhibitor, calcium channel blocker, or thiazide diuretic in monotherapy, the risk of hospitalization (angiotensin‐converting enzyme inhibitor: HR, 0.76; 95% CI, 0.66–0.87; P

Abstract The impact of most, but not all, cardiovascular risk factors decline by age. We investigated how the metabolic syndrome (MetS) was related to cardiovascular disease (CVD) during 40 years follow-up in the Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM, 2,123 men all aged 50 at baseline with reinvestigations at age 60, 70, 77 and 82). The strength of MetS as a risk factor of incident combined end-point of three outcomes (CVD) declined with ageing, as well as for myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke and heart failure when analysed separately. For CVD, the risk ratio declined from 2.77 (95% CI 1.90–4.05) at age 50 to 1.30 (95% CI 1.05–1.60) at age 82. In conclusion, the strength of MetS as a risk factor of incident CVD declined with age. Since MetS was significantly related to incident CVD also at old age, our findings suggest that the occurrence of MetS in the elderly should not be regarded as innocent. However, since our data were derived in an observational study, any impact of MetS in the elderly needs to be verified in a randomized clinical intervention trial.

Purpose Early treatment of hypertension is important to reduce adverse cardiovascular outcomes. The aim of this study was to investigate the time delay from detection of a high blood pressure in a health screening survey to hypertension diagnosis in primary care. Materials and methods Seventy years old inhabitants in the Uppsala County were randomly invited to the Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) study. We found 409 individuals without antihypertensive treatment with a blood pressure >140/90 mmHg, being the average of three recordings measured after 30 min rest in a supine position. These individuals were recommended to ask their primary care physician to further investigate this finding. Results During 10 years of follow-up, 285 of them (70%) received a hypertension diagnosis. The mean time to diagnosis was 5 (SD 2) years. The chance of receiving a diagnosis of hypertension during the follow-up period in this group with elevated blood pressure at baseline was related to the systolic blood pressure (OR 1.04 per 1 mmHg, 95%CI 1.02–1.04), the BMI (OR 1.06 per 1 kg/m2, 95%CI 1.01–1.12), and statin use (OR 3.76, 95%CI 1.35–10.3) at the health survey, but was not significantly related to sex, prevalence of diabetes, or use of salicylic acid. No significant interaction between sex and systolic blood pressure regarding hypertension diagnosis was observed. Conclusion In conclusion, when an elevated blood pressure was discovered in elderly persons at a health screening, 70% of those received a hypertension diagnosis within 10 years, with a mean time to diagnosis of 5 years. Health care actions should be enforced to shorten this time lag both in terms of information to the individuals, as well as the handling of this patient group in primary care.

Background A clustering of cardiovascular risk factors is denoted the metabolic syndrome (MetS), but the mechanistic underpinnings of this clustering is not clear. Using large-scale metabolomics, we aimed to find a metabolic profile common for all five components of MetS. Methods and findings 791 annotated non-xenobiotic metabolites were measured by ultra-performance liquid chromatography tandem mass spectrometry in five different population-based samples (Discovery samples: EpiHealth, n = 2342 and SCAPIS-Uppsala, n = 4985. Replication sample: SCAPIS-Malmö, n = 3978, Characterization samples: PIVUS, n = 604 and POEM, n = 501). MetS was defined by the NCEP/consensus criteria. Fifteen metabolites were related to all five components of MetS (blood pressure, waist circumference, glucose, HDL-cholesterol and triglycerides) at a false discovery rate of Conclusion A complex metabolic profile was related to all cardiovascular risk factors included in MetS independently of BMI. This profile was also related to insulin sensitivity, which provide further support for the importance of insulin sensitivity as an important underlying mechanism in the clustering of cardiovascular risk factors.

Background Echocardiographic measures are known predictors of cardiovascular disease (CVD) in the general population. This study compared the predictive value of such measures to that of circulating cardiac biomarkers for a composite cardiovascular disease outcome in an aging population. Methods In this prospective population-based cohort study, echocardiography was performed at baseline together with assessments of traditional CVD risk factors and circulating cardiac biomarkers, NT-proBNP and troponin I, in 1016 individuals all aged 70 years. Assessments were repeated at ages 75 and 80. A composite CVD outcome (myocardial infarction, heart failure or ischemic stroke) was charted over 15 years. All echocardiography variables, except for the E/A ratio, were analyzed on a continuous scale. Results Over 10 years, left atrial (LA) diameter, left ventricular mass index (LVMI) and high E/A ratio (>1.5) increased, while left ventricular ejection fraction (LVEF) remained unchanged. Using Cox proportional hazard analyses with time-updated variables for echocardiographic measures and traditional risk factors, an enlarged LA diameter and a low LVEF were independently related to incident CVD in 222 participants. The addition of LA diameter and LVEF to traditional risk factors increased the C-statistic by 1.5% (p = 0.008). However, the addition of troponin I and NT-proBNP to traditional risk factors increased the C-statistic by 3.0% (pConclusion An enlarged LA diameter and a low LVEF improved the prediction of incident CVD compared to traditional risk factors. However, given that troponin I and NT-proBNP improved prediction to a similar extent, the use of simple blood tests to improve clinical cardiovascular disease risk prediction is only further supported by this study.

Objectives To study the value of combining individual- and neighborhood-level sociodemographic data to predict study participation and assess the effects of baseline selection on the distribution of metabolic risk factors and lifestyle factors in the Swedish CardioPulmonary bioImage Study (SCAPIS). Methods We linked sociodemographic register data to SCAPIS participants (n = 30,154, ages: 50–64 years) and a random sample of the study’s target population (n = 59,909). We assessed the classification ability of participation models based on individual-level data, neighborhood-level data, and combinations of both. Standardized mean differences (SMD) were used to examine how reweighting the sample to match the population affected the averages of 32 cardiopulmonary risk factors at baseline. Absolute SMDs >0.10 were considered meaningful. Results Combining both individual-level and neighborhood-level data gave rise to a model with better classification ability (AUC: 71.3%) than models with only individual-level (AUC: 66.9%) or neighborhood-level data (AUC: 65.5%). We observed a greater change in the distribution of risk factors when we reweighted the participants using both individual and area data. The only meaningful change was related to the (self-reported) frequency of alcohol consumption, which appears to be higher in the SCAPIS sample than in the population. The remaining risk factors did not change meaningfully. Conclusions Both individual- and neighborhood-level characteristics are informative in assessing study selection effects. Future analyses of cardiopulmonary outcomes in the SCAPIS cohort can benefit from our study, though the average impact of selection on risk factor distributions at baseline appears small.

On the electrocardiogram, the PR interval reflects conduction from the atria to ventricles and also serves as risk indicator of cardiovascular morbidity and mortality. Here, the authors perform genome-wide meta-analyses for PR interval in multiple ancestries and identify 141 previously unreported genetic loci.

Background: Diabetic kidney disease (DKD) is a leading risk factor for end-stage renal disease and is one of the most important risk factors for cardiovascular disease in patients with diabetes. It is possible that novel markers portraying the pathophysiological underpinning processes may be useful. Aim: To investigate the associations between 80 circulating proteins, measured by a proximity extension assay, and prevalent DKD and major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) in type 2 diabetes. Methods: We randomly divided individuals with type 2 diabetes from three cohorts into a two-thirds discovery and one-third replication set (total n = 813, of whom 231 had DKD defined by estimated glomerular filtration rate

BackgroundThe relationship between statin treatment and Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) mortality has been discussed due to the pleiotropic effects of statins on coagulation and immune mechanisms. However, available observational studies are hampered by study design flaws, resulting in substantial heterogeneity and ambiguities. Here, we aim to determine the relationship between statin treatment and COVID-19 mortality.Methods and findingsThis cohort study included all Stockholm residents aged 45 or older (N = 963,876), followed up from 1 March 2020 until 11 November 2020. The exposure was statin treatment initiated before the COVID-19-pandemic, defined as recorded statin dispensation in the Swedish Prescribed Drug Register between 1 March 2019 and 29 February 2020. COVID-19-specific mortality was ascertained from the Swedish Cause of Death Registry. Hazard ratios (HRs) were calculated using multivariable Cox regression models. We further performed a target trial emulation restricted to initiators of statins. In the cohort (51.6% female), 169,642 individuals (17.6%) were statin users. Statin users were older (71.0 versus 58.0 years), more likely to be male (53.3% versus 46.7%), more often diagnosed with comorbidities (for example, ischemic heart disease 23.3% versus 1.6%), more frequently on anticoagulant and antihypertensive treatments, less likely to have a university-level education (34.5% versus 45.4%), and more likely to have a low disposable income (20.6% versus 25.2%), but less likely to reside in crowded housing (6.1% versus 10.3%). A total of 2,545 individuals died from COVID-19 during follow-up, including 765 (0.5%) of the statin users and 1,780 (0.2%) of the nonusers. Statin treatment was associated with a lowered COVID-19 mortality (adjusted HR, 0.88; 95% CI, 0.79 to 0.97, P = 0.01), and this association did not vary appreciably across age groups, sexes, or COVID-19 risk groups. The confounder adjusted HR for statin treatment initiators was 0.78 (95% CI, 0.59 to 1.05, P = 0.10) in the emulated target trial. Limitations of this study include the observational design, reliance on dispensation data, and the inability to study specific drug regimens.ConclusionsStatin treatment had a modest negative association with COVID-19 mortality. While this finding needs confirmation from randomized clinical trials, it supports the continued use of statin treatment for medical prevention according to current recommendations also during the COVID-19 pandemic.

Background Considering the widespread risk of collider bias and confounding by indication in previous research, the associations between renin‐angiotensin aldosterone system (RAAS) inhibitor use and COVID‐19 remain unknown. Accordingly, this study tested the hypothesis that RAAS inhibitors influence the summation effect of COVID‐19 and its progression to severe outcomes. Methods and Results This nationwide cohort study compared all residents of Sweden, without prior cardiovascular disease, in monotherapy (as of January 1, 2020) with a RAAS inhibitor to those using a calcium channel blocker or a thiazide diuretic. Comparative cohorts were balanced using machine‐learning‐derived propensity score methods. Of 165 355 people in the analysis (51% women), 367 were hospitalized or died with COVID‐19 (246 using a RAAS inhibitor versus 121 using a calcium channel blocker or thiazide diuretic; Cox proportional hazard ratio [HR], 0.97; 95% CI, 0.74–1.27). When each outcome was assessed separately, 335 people were hospitalized with COVID‐19 (HR, 0.92; 95% CI, 0.70–1.22), and 64 died with COVID‐19 (HR, 1.22; 95% CI, 0.68–2.19). The severity of COVID‐19 outcomes did not differ between those using a RAAS inhibitor and those using a calcium channel blocker or thiazide diuretic (ordered logistic regression odds ratio, 1.01; 95% CI, 0.89–1.14). Conclusions Despite potential limitations, this study is among the best available evidence that RAAS inhibitor use in primary prevention does not increase the risk of severe COVID‐19 outcomes; presenting strong data from which scientists and policy makers alike can base, with greater confidence, their current position on the safety of using RAAS inhibitors during the COVID‐19 pandemic.

BackgroundChildhood obesity is a major public health issue. The increase in the consumption of foods with poor nutritional value, such as processed foods, contributes to this. Breakfast cereals are often advertised as a healthy way to start the day, but the healthiness of these products varies greatly. ObjectiveOur main objective was to gather information about the nutritional characteristics of ready-to-eat breakfast cereals in Sweden and to investigate the healthiness of products targeted at children compared to other cereals by use of the FoodSwitch platform. A secondary objective was to evaluate the alignment between the Keyhole symbol and the Health Star Rating. MethodsThe FoodSwitch app is a mobile health (mHealth) tool used to present nutrition data and healthier alternative products to consumers. Ready-to-eat breakfast cereals from the largest Swedish grocery retailers were collected using the FoodSwitch platform. Products were defined as targeting children if they presented features addressing children on the package. ResultsOverall, information on 261 ready-to-eat cereals was examined. Of this total, 8% (n=21) were targeted at children. Child-targeted cereals were higher in sugar (22.3 g/100 g vs 12.8 g/100 g, P

BackgroundRandomised evidence on the efficacy of blood pressure (BP)-lowering treatment to reduce cardiovascular risk in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) is limited. Therefore, this study aimed to compare the effects of BP-lowering drugs in patients with and without AF at baseline.Methods and findingsThe study was based on the resource provided by the Blood Pressure Lowering Treatment Trialists' Collaboration (BPLTTC), in which individual participant data (IPD) were extracted from trials with over 1,000 patient-years of follow-up in each arm, and that had randomly assigned patients to different classes of BP-lowering drugs, BP-lowering drugs versus placebo, or more versus less intensive BP-lowering regimens. For this study, only trials that had collected information on AF status at baseline were included. The effects of BP-lowering treatment on a composite endpoint of major cardiovascular events (stroke, ischaemic heart disease or heart failure) according to AF status at baseline were estimated using fixed-effect one-stage IPD meta-analyses based on Cox proportional hazards models stratified by trial. Furthermore, to assess whether the associations between the intensity of BP reduction and cardiovascular outcomes are similar in those with and without AF at baseline, we used a meta-regression. From the full BPLTTC database, 28 trials (145,653 participants) were excluded because AF status at baseline was uncertain or unavailable. A total of 22 trials were included with 188,570 patients, of whom 13,266 (7%) had AF at baseline. Risk of bias assessment showed that 20 trials were at low risk of bias and 2 trials at moderate risk. Meta-regression showed that relative risk reductions were proportional to trial-level intensity of BP lowering in patients with and without AF at baseline. Over 4.5 years of median follow-up, a 5-mm Hg systolic BP (SBP) reduction lowered the risk of major cardiovascular events both in patients with AF (hazard ratio [HR] 0.91, 95% confidence interval [CI] 0.83 to 1.00) and in patients without AF at baseline (HR 0.91, 95% CI 0.88 to 0.93), with no difference between subgroups. There was no evidence for heterogeneity of treatment effects by baseline SBP or drug class in patients with AF at baseline. The findings of this study need to be interpreted in light of its potential limitations, such as the limited number of trials, limitation in ascertaining AF cases due to the nature of the arrhythmia and measuring BP in patients with AF.ConclusionsIn this meta-analysis, we found that BP-lowering treatment reduces the risk of major cardiovascular events similarly in individuals with and without AF. Pharmacological BP lowering for prevention of cardiovascular events should be recommended in patients with AF.

Background The aim is to study common etiological pathways for 3 major cardiovascular diseases (CVD), as reflected in multiple proteins. Methods and Results Eighty‐four proteins were measured using the proximity extension technique in 870 participants in the PIVUS (Prospective Investigation of Uppsala Seniors Study) cohort on 3 occasions (age 70, 75, and 80 years). The sample was followed for incident myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke or heart failure. The same proteins were measured in an independent validation sample, the ULSAM (Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men) cohort in 595 participants at age 77. During a follow‐up of up to 15 years in PIVUS and 9 years in ULSAM, 222 and 167 individuals experienced a CVD. Examining associations with the 3 outcomes separately in a meta‐analysis of the 2 cohorts, 6 proteins were related to incident myocardial infarction, 25 to heart failure, and 8 proteins to ischemic stroke following adjustment for traditional risk factors. Growth differentiation factor 15 and tumor necrosis factor‐related apoptosis‐inducing ligand receptor 2 were related to all 3 CVDs. Including estimated glomerular filtration rate in the models attenuated some of these relationships. Fifteen proteins were related to a composite of all 3 CVDs using a discovery/validation approach when adjusting for traditional risk factors. A selection of 7 proteins by lasso in PIVUS improved discrimination of incident CVD by 7.3% compared with traditional risk factors in ULSAM. Conclusions We discovered and validated associations of multiple proteins with incident CVD. Only a few proteins were associated with all 3 diseases: myocardial infarction, ischemic stroke, and heart failure.

Abstract Aims We aimed to investigate whether metabolomic profiling of blood can lead to novel insights into heart failure pathogenesis or improved risk prediction. Methods and results Mass spectrometry‐based metabolomic profiling was performed in plasma or serum samples from three community‐based cohorts without heart failure at baseline (total n = 3924; 341 incident heart failure events; median follow‐up ranging from 4.6 to 13.9 years). Cox proportional hazard models were applied to assess the association of each of the 206 identified metabolites with incident heart failure in the discovery cohorts Prospective Investigation of the Vasculature in Uppsala Seniors (PIVUS) (n = 920) and Uppsala Longitudinal Study of Adult Men (ULSAM) (n = 1121). Replication was undertaken in the independent cohort TwinGene (n = 1797). We also assessed whether metabolites could improve the prediction of heart failure beyond established risk factors (age, sex, body mass index, low‐density and high‐density lipoprotein cholesterol, triglycerides, lipid medication, diabetes, systolic and diastolic blood pressure, blood pressure medication, glomerular filtration rate, smoking status, and myocardial infarction prior to or during follow‐up). Higher circulating urobilin and lower sphingomyelin (30:1) were associated with incident heart failure in age‐adjusted and sex‐adjusted models in the discovery and replication sample. The hazard ratio for urobilin in the replication cohort was estimated to 1.29 per standard deviation unit, 95% confidence interval (CI 1.03–1.63), and for sphingomyelin (30:1) to 0.72 (95% CI 0.58–0.89). Results remained similar after further adjustment for established heart failure risk factors in meta‐analyses of all three cohorts. Urobilin concentrations were inversely associated with left ventricular ejection fraction at baseline in the PIVUS cohort (β = −0.70, 95% CI −1.03 to −0.38). No major improvement in risk prediction was observed when adding the top 2 metabolites (C‐index 0.787, 95% CI 0.752–0.823) or nine Lasso‐selected metabolites (0.790, 95% CI 0.754–0.826) to a modified Atherosclerosis Risk in Communities heart failure risk score model (0.780, 95% CI 0.745–0.816). Conclusions Our metabolomic profiling of three community‐based cohorts study identified associations of circulating levels of the haem breakdown product urobilin, and sphingomyelin (30:1), a cell membrane component involved in signal transduction and apoptosis, with incident heart failure.

High blood pressure is the leading risk factor for premature deaths and a major cost to societies worldwide. Effective blood pressure-lowering drugs are available, but patient adherence to them is low, likely partly due to side effects. To identify patient-specific differences in treatment effects, a repeated cross-over design, where the same treatment contrasts are repeated within each patient, is needed. Such designs have been surprisingly rarely used, given the current focus on precision medicine. The Precision HYpertenSIon Care (PHYSIC) study aims to investigate if there is a consistent between-person variation in blood pressure response to the common blood pressure-lowering drug classes of a clinically relevant magnitude, given the within-person variation in blood pressure. The study will also investigate the between-person variation in side effects of the drugs. In a double-blind, randomized, repeated cross-over trial, 300 patients with mild hypertension will be treated with four blood pressure-lowering drugs (candesartan, lisinopril, amlodipine, and hydrochlorothiazide) in monotherapy, with two of the drugs repeated for each patient. If the study indicates that there is a potential for precision hypertension care, the most promising predictors of blood pressure and side effect response to the drugs will be explored, as will the potential for development of a biomarker panel to rank the suitability of blood pressure-lowering drug classes for individual patients in terms of anticipated blood pressure effects and side effects, with the ultimate goal to maximize adherence. The study follows a protocol pre-registered at ClinicalTrials.gov with the identifier NCT02774460. Trial registration: ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT02774460.

In order to monitor the net public health benefit of new drugs, especially in the light of recent stepwise approval approaches, there is a need to optimize real-time post-marketing evaluation of new drugs using data collected in routine care. Sweden, with its unique possibilities for observational research, can provide these data. We herein propose a framework for continuous monitoring of the effectiveness, safety, and cost-effectiveness of new drugs, using prospectively determined protocols designed in collaboration between all relevant stakeholders. We believe that this framework can be a useful tool for healthcare authorities and reimbursement agencies in the introduction of new drugs.

We herein outline the rationale for a Swedish cohort consortium, aiming to facilitate greater use of Swedish cohorts for world-class research. Coordination of all Swedish prospective population-based cohorts in a common infrastructure would enable more precise research findings and facilitate research on rare exposures and outcomes, leading to better utilization of study participants’ data, better return of funders’ investments, and higher benefit to patients and populations. We motivate the proposed infrastructure partly by lessons learned from a pilot study encompassing data from 21 cohorts. We envisage a standing Swedish cohort consortium that would drive development of epidemiological research methods and strengthen the Swedish as well as international epidemiological competence, community, and competitiveness.

Abstract Background Common measures used to describe preventive treatment effects today are proportional, i.e. they compare the proportions of events in relative or absolute terms, however they are not easily interpreted from the patient’s perspective and different magnitudes do not seem to clearly discriminate between levels of effect presented to people. Methods In this randomised cross-sectional survey experiment, performed in a Swedish population-based sample (n = 1041, response rate 58.6%), the respondents, aged between 40 and 75 years were given information on a hypothetical preventive cardiovascular treatment. Respondents were randomised into groups in which the treatment was described as having the effect of delaying a heart attack for different periods of time (Delay of Event, DoE): 1 month, 6 months or 18 months. Respondents were thereafter asked about their willingness to initiate such therapy, as well as questions about how they valued the proposed therapy. Results Longer DoE:s were associated with comparatively greater willingness to initiate treatment. The proportions accepting treatment were 81, 71 and 46% when postponement was 18 months, 6 months and 1 month respectively. In adjusted binary logistic regression models the odds ratio for being willing to take therapy was 4.45 (95% CI 2.72–7.30) for a DoE of 6 months, and 6.08 (95% CI 3.61–10.23) for a DoE of 18 months compared with a DoE of 1 month. Greater belief in the necessity of medical treatment increased the odds of being willing to initiate therapy. Conclusions Lay people’s willingness to initiate preventive therapy was sensitive to the magnitude of the effect presented as DoE. The results indicate that DoE is a comprehensible effect measure, of potential value in shared clinical decision-making.

Background. Regular exercise reduces pulse rate, but it is less clear how prolonged sitting time affects pulse rate. Our hypothesis was that high physical activity could compensate for prolonged sitting time regarding the pulse rate. Methods. Regression analysis was performed on cross-sectional data including 47,457 men and women based on two Swedish cohort studies, EpiHealth (18–45 years) and LifeGene (45–75 years). Self-reported leisure time physical activity was given in five levels, from low (level 1) to vigorous (level 5), and television time was used as a proxy of sitting time. Results. A higher physical activity (level 4 compared to level 1) was associated with a lower pulse rate in middle-aged females (-2.7 beats per minute [bpm]; 95% CI -3.3 to -2.2) and males (-4.0 bpm; 95% CI -4.7 to -3.4). The relationship between physical activity and pulse rate was strongest in the young. A prolonged television time (3 h compared to 1 h per day) was associated with a slightly higher pulse rate in middle-aged females (+0.6 bpm; 95% CI +0.3 to +0.8) and males (+0.9 bpm; 95% CI +0.7 to +1.2). Among participants with a prolonged television time (3 h), those with a high physical activity (level 4) had a lower pulse rate compared to those with a low physical activity (level 1). Conclusions. A prolonged television time was associated with a high pulse rate, while high physical activity was associated with a low pulse rate. The results suggest that a high physical activity could compensate for a prolonged television time regarding pulse rate.