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Understanding uncertainties and risks can be considered to be the main motivation behind environmental scenario studies to assess potential economic, environmental, social or technical developments and their expected consequences for society and environment. The scenario study presented in this paper was designed to contribute to the question of how natural capital and ecosystem services may evolve in Europe under different socio-environmental conditions. The study was conducted as part of OpenNESS, an on-going EU FP7 research project. We present the iterative participatory scenario process, the storylines and drivers, examples for regional applications, as well as initial feedback from stakeholders. In a participatory iterative approach four scenarios were developed for the period to 2050, involving regional and EU-level users and stakeholders. Subsequently, scenarios were successfully contextualised and applied in regional place-based studies under widely differing socio-environmental conditions. Regional teams used different approaches to adapt storylines and drivers to the regional contexts. In an internal evaluation process among regional stakeholders some participants expressed concerns about the scenario method. Suggestions are made how to overcome these limitations. However, most participants approved the scenario method, especially in terms of provoking discussions, and confirmed the usefulness and applicability of the approach.

Made available in DSpace on 2019-10-06T15:28:02Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2019-02-01 Coordenação de Aperfeiçoamento de Pessoal de Nível Superior (CAPES) Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) Payments for Ecosystem Services (PES) schemes have increasingly expanded to consider ecosystem services (ESS). In Brazil, the Forest Code permits PES but does not specify the scheme operationalization. The way ESS should be quantified and valued has not yet been implemented country-wide, nor has the funding source for PES. Through interviews with farmers in Rio Claro-SP, Brazil, and in Cairngorms National Park in the highlands and lowlands of Scotland, UK, we compared farmers’ perspectives concerning ESS and PES, focusing on the PES implementation in sugarcane landscape in São Paulo state. While Scottish farmers perceived more cultural services, Brazilian farmers focused on regulating services, which we attribute to socio-political and landscape differences. Despite these differences, farmers in both areas preferred opportunity cost approach for ESS valuation because this method captures efforts to maintain ESS. Thereby, the opportunity cost should be considered for valuation in PES schemes, but conversely, budgetary constraints make it impossible to satisfy farmers with PES in regions of high productivity in the southeast of Brazil. Lessons learned concerning the PES subsidies in Scotland indicates the importance of co-designing schemes with stakeholders, minimizing trade-offs between the environment. Therefore, the participants as ESS providers, beneficiaries and intermediaries in the public policies arena was recognized for co-optimize the trade-offs between costs and effectiveness in PES. Center for Meteorological and Climatic Research Applied to Agriculture – CEPAGRI Universidade de Campinas Stockholm Resilience Center – Researcher Graid Project Stockholm University Center for Ecology and Hydrology Natural Environment Research Council–NERC, Bush Estate, Penicuik Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ Departamento de Ecologia Universidade Estadual Paulista – Unesp Departamento de Ecologia Universidade Estadual Paulista – Unesp CAPES: 88881.030372/2013-01

The Millennium Ecosystem Assessment (MA) initiated in 2001 aims to assess the impacts of human pressure on ecosystem services (ES) and human well-being. Since then, the ES have been a worldwide concern, namely regarding to biodiversity loss and land use management (MA, 2005). The EU 2010 Biodiversity Baseline Report stated that 65% of habitats of EU importance were in an unfavorable conservation status, mainly due to anthropic activities over time (EEA, 2010). As a consequence, in 2011, the EU adopted the Biodiversity Strategy to 2020, requiring all Member States to actively work towards stopping the loss of biodiversity and ecosystem services by 2020, and to restore ecosystems. ES are particularly relevant in urban areas, where most population is concentrated and expected to reach almost 70% of the total population by 2050 (UN-DESA, 2018). Strategically planned urban Green and Blue Infrastructures (GBI) can be designed and implemented in cities to effectively provide a wide range of ES, relevant to address urban sustainability and resilience to climate change, and thus effectively contribute to stop and revert ES deterioration and loss. However, the integration of ES and GBI concepts into national, regional and local policies and plans, and their effectiveness to implement the EU Biodiversity Strategy, is still a major challenge. This paper aims to analyze the horizontal and vertical integration of the ES and GBI concepts in the Portuguese policies and land use planning, at national, regional and local levels, focusing on the municipality of Coimbra. Among the 19 documents analyzed, most of them are defined at national level (12) and 6 of them are defined at local level. At the regional level, only one single plan is available, although it is still not officially approved and published, despite started being prepared in 1991. This regional situation mirrors the current status of the Portuguese administrative levels, which was triggered by the negative result of the 1998 referendum on the regionalization process. This referendum prevented necessary changes in the administrative divisions, so that current regional divisions do not reflect the economic, demographic and cultural realities of the country, having been emptied of administrative powers. The analysis shows a strong integration of the ES and GBI concepts at the national level, but the vertical coordination shows that plenty of work needs to be done to fully embrace the ES and GBI concepts. This research was performed in the UrbanGaia project, funded through the ERA-net BiodivERsA 3 2015 call under grants BRAIN-be BR/175/A1/URBANGAIA-BE (Belgium); 01LC1616A (Germany); S-BIODIVERSA-17-17-1 (Lithuania), and BIODIVERSA/0008/2015 (Portugal).

Urban green brownfields are a particular type of urban green space and contribute to the quality of life by providing a variety of ecosystem services (ES). In this study, we mapped the use of ES and perception of disservices (EDS) on brownfields in the city of Leipzig using the smartphone application MapNat. We assessed the personal valuation and motives of users in relation to site and vicinity characteristics. Results suggest that brownfields play a particular role in the set of urban green spaces, providing characteristic ES such as opportunities to recreate, relax and retreat, partly differing from or complementing ES in formal urban green spaces. We identified spatial use patterns depending on local characteristics and personal preferences. For example, less accessible sites were relatively high valued and often used for dog-walking. Vice versa, better accessible sites were rather visited for informal stays and ‘hang-outs’. The patterns of use identified in this study may be of interest for urban management and planning of public green spaces, especially if no immediate follow up use or conversion of brownfields is planned.

Spatial planning has to deal with trade-offs between various stakeholders’ wishes and needs as part of planning and management of landscapes, natural resources and/or biodiversity. To make ecosystem services (ES) trade-off research more relevant for spatial planning, we propose an analytical framework, which puts stakeholders, their land-use/management choices, their impact on ES and responses at the centre. Based on 24 cases from around the world, we used this framing to analyse the appearance and diversity of real-world ES trade-offs. They cover a wide range of trade-offs related to ecosystem use, including: land-use change, management regimes, technical versus nature-based solutions, natural resource use, and management of species. The ES trade-offs studied featured a complexity that was far greater than what is often described in the ES literature. Influential users and context setters are at the core of the trade-off decision-making, but most of the impact is felt by non-influential users. Provisioning and cultural ES were the most targeted in the studied trade-offs, but regulating ES were the most impacted. Stakeholders’ characteristics, such as influence, impact faced, and concerns can partially explain their position and response in relation to trade-offs. Based on the research findings, we formulate recommendations for spatial planning. Fil: Turkelboom, Francis. Research Institute For Nature And Forest; Bélgica Fil: Leone, Michael. Research Institute For Nature And Forest, Brussels; Fil: Jacobs, Sander. Research Institute For Nature And Forest, Brussels; Fil: Kelemen, Eszter. Environmental Social Science Research Group; Hungría. Corvinus University of Budapest; Hungría Fil: García Llorente, Marina. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid; España Fil: Baró, Francesc. Hospital del Mar; España. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; España Fil: Termansen, Mette. University Aarhus; Dinamarca Fil: Barton, David N.. Norwegian Institute For Nature Research; Noruega Fil: Berry, Pam. University of Oxford; Reino Unido Fil: Stange, Erik. Norwegian Institute For Nature Research; Noruega Fil: Thoonen, Marijke. Research Institute For Nature And Forest; Bélgica Fil: Kalóczkai, Ágnes. Hungarian Academy Of Sciences. Institute Of Ecology And Botany; Hungría Fil: Vadineanu, Angheluta. Universitatea Din Bucuresti; Rumania Fil: Castro, Antonio J.. Idaho State University; Estados Unidos. Universidad de Almeria; España Fil: Czúcz, Bálint. Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle; Francia. Hungarian Academy Of Sciences. Institute Of Ecology And Botany; Hungría Fil: Röckmann, Christine. Wageningen University And Research Centre; Países Bajos Fil: Wurbs, Daniel. Geoflux; Alemania Fil: Odee, David. Kenya Forestry Research Institute; Kenia Fil: Preda, Elena. Universitatea Din Bucuresti; Rumania Fil: Gómez Baggethun, Erik. University of Oxford; Reino Unido Fil: Rusch, Graciela M.. Norwegian Institute For Nature Research; Noruega Fil: Martínez Pastur, Guillermo José. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas. Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas; Argentina Fil: Palomo, Ignacio. Universidad Autónoma de Madrid; España Fil: Dick, Jan. Center for Ecology and Hydrology; Reino Unido Fil: Casaer, Jim. Research Institute for Nature and Forest; Bélgica Fil: van Dijk, Jiska. Norwegian Institute For Nature Research; Noruega Fil: Priess, Joerg A.. Helmholtz Zentrum Für Umweltforschung; Alemania Fil: Langemeyer, Johannes. Hospital del Mar; España. Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona; España Fil: Mustajoki, Jyri. Finnish Environment Institute; Finlandia Fil: Kopperoinen, Leena. Finnish Environment Institute; Finlandia Fil: Baptist, Martin J.. Wageningen University And Research Centre; Países Bajos Fil: Peri, Pablo Luis. Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria. Centro Regional Buenos Aires; Argentina. Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas; Argentina Fil: Mukhopadhyay, Raktima. Indian Institute Of Bio Social Research And Development; India Fil: Aszalós, Réka. Hungarian Academy Of Sciences. Institute of Ecology and Botany; Argentina Fil: Roy, S. B.. Indian Institute Of Bio Social Research And Development; India Fil: Luque, Sandra. Territoires, Environnement, Télédétection Et Information Spatiale; Francia Fil: Rusch, Verónica. Instituto Nacional de Tecnologia Agropecuaria Bariloche; Argentina

New European Union level scenarios have been developed in the FP7 project OpenNESS to fill a thematic gap in existing broad-scale environmental scenarios to assess the uncertainties and risks of different drivers of change for natural capital and ecosystem service provision. The scenarios are aiming at applicability for science and policy-making at different scales, including the European level and regional and local scales. The scenarios are going beyond the Millennium Ecosystem Assessment scenarios, making broader assumptions in covering different types of ecosystem services, and different pathways of ecosystem services provision, including risks of ecosystem service losses. The main research question is addressing uncertainties and risks related to land-use change, exemplified via impacts on a provisioning and a regulating service. The approach is based on participatory scenario development and integrated modelling with the CLIMSAVE modelling framework. Four scenarios were developed (WealthBeing, UnitedWeStand, EcoCentre, RuralRevival). Simulations of the combinations of driving forces caused land-use changes up to +65% for forest, or −37% for grassland, both in UnitedWeStand. The most extreme changes highlighted here for scenario UnitedWeStand can mainly be attributed to the highest increase in irrigation efficiency (+58%) and crop yields (+50%), an almost constant human population in Europe (+1%), moderate increases in meat demands (+10%) and increasing food imports (+10%). In terms of ecosystem services provision, no clear winners and losers could be identified in the four scenarios, but rather different mixes of trade-offs and synergies. Thus, drivers within Europe as well as trade with land-intensive commodities and the policies steering them contribute to lower or increased pressures and risks of ecosystem services loss, e.g., on agricultural land in Europe and the countries of trading partners.

Future uncertainties and risks for socio-environmental systems are often addressed in the form of scenarios. This study aims to identify the biggest future risks and uncertainties for the study region Central Germany and the question which land use changes and impacts on selected ecosystem services related to agricultural production can be expected in the coming decades.

Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T16:50:30Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2018-02-01 The Ecosystem Services (ES) concept highlights the varied contributions the environment provides to humans and there are a wide range of methods/tools available to assess ES. However, in real-world decision contexts a single tool is rarely sufficient and methods must be combined to meet practitioner needs. Here, results from the OpenNESS project are presented to illustrate the methods selected to meet the needs of 24 real-world case studies and better understand why and how methods are combined to meet practical needs. Results showed that within the cases methods were combined to: i) address a range of ES; ii) assess both supply and demand of ES; iii) assess a range of value types; iv) reach different stakeholder groups v) cover weaknesses in other methods used and vi) to meet specific decision context needs. Methods were linked in a variety of ways: i) as input–output chains of methods; ii) through learning; iii) through method development and iv) through comparison/triangulation of results. The paper synthesises these case study-based experiences to provide insight to others working in practical contexts as to where, and in what contexts, different methods can be combined and how this can add value to case study analyses. Environmental Change Institute, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford Centre for Ecology and Hydrology Lancaster Environment Centre, Library Avenue, Bailrigg Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Gaustadalléen 21 Leuphana University of Lüneburg Faculty of Sustainability Institute of Ethics and Transdisciplinary Sustainability Research, Scharnhorststraβe 1 Environmental Social Science Research Group (ESSRG Ltd.), Rómer Flóris u. 38. Department of Decision Sciences Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8. Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Kliniekstraat 25 Finnish Environment Institute, P.O. Box 140 Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15 CoKnow Consulting – Coproducing Knowledge for Sustainability CENSE – Centre for Environmental and Sustainability Research Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia Universidade Nova de Lisboa Institute of Ecology and Botany Centre for Ecological Research Hungarian Academy of Sciences, Alkotmány u. 2-4 National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry “Marin Dracea”, Eroilor Blvd 128 Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA) Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) Edifici Z (ICTA-ICP), Carrer de les Columnes s/n, Campus de la UAB European Topic Centre on Biological Diversity Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, 57 rue Cuvier, Paris Cedex 05 Urban Environment and Territorial Sustainability Area Energy and Environment Dividision Parque Tecnológico de Bizkaia C/Geldo, Edificio 700 University of Bucharest – Research Center in Systems Ecology and Sustainability, Splaiul Independentei 91-95 Department of International Environment and Development Studies (Noragric) Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), P.O. Box 5003 European Commission – Joint Research Centre (JRC), Via E. Fermi 2749 Institute of Landscape Ecology Slovak Academy of Sciences, Štefánikova 3 IRSTEA National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture UMR TETIS, 500 rue JF Breton UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista Ecology Department – LabTerra, Av.24-A, 1515 CEP Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas (CADIC CONICET), Houssay 200, Ushuaia (9140) IBRAD (Indian Institute of Bio Social Research and Development), VIP Road, Kestopur, Prafulla Kanan Department of Environmental Sciences, P.O. Box 65, FI-00014 University of Helsinki Kenya Forestry Research Institute (KEFRI), P.O.Box 20412-0200 Basque Centre for Climate Change, Alameda de Urquijo 4 INCLINE – Interdisciplinary Climate Change Research Group Instituto de Astronomia e Geofísica USP – Universidade de São Paulo, R. do Matão, 1226 – Butantã Wageningen University & Research – Marine (WUR), P.O.Box 57 IRIDRA, Via La Marmora Hospital del Mar Medical Research Institute (IMIM) PRBB, Carrer Doctor Aiguader 88 UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista Ecology Department – LabTerra, Av.24-A, 1515 CEP

Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T17:17:07Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2018-02-01 The operational challenges of integrated ecosystem service (ES) appraisals are determined by study purpose, system complexity and uncertainty, decision-makers’ requirements for reliability and accuracy of methods, and approaches to stakeholder–science interaction in different decision contexts. To explore these factors we defined an information gap hypothesis, based on a theory of cumulative uncertainty in ES appraisals. When decision context requirements for accuracy and reliability increase, and the expected uncertainty of the ES appraisal methods also increases, the likelihood of methods being used is expected to drop, creating a potential information gap in governance. In order to test this information gap hypothesis, we evaluate 26 case studies and 80 ecosystem services appraisals in a large integrated EU research project. We find some support for a decreasing likelihood of ES appraisal methods coinciding with increasing accuracy and reliability requirements of the decision-support context, and with increasing uncertainty. We do not find that information costs are the explanation for this information gap, but rather that the research project interacted mostly with stakeholders outside the most decision-relevant contexts. The paper discusses how alternative definitions of integrated valuation can lead to different interpretations of decision-support information, and different governance approaches to dealing with uncertainty. Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Gaustadalléen 21 Environmental Social Science Research Group (ESSRG Ltd.), Rómer Flóris u.38 Department of Decision Sciences Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8 Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate, Penicuik Leuphana University of Lüneburg Faculty of Sustainability Institute of Ethics and Transdisciplinary Sustainability Research, Scharnhorststraβe 1 Department of International Environment and Development Studies (Noragric) Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), P.O. Box 5003, N-1432 Ås Research Group Nature and Society Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Kliniekstraat 25 Wageningen University and Research Environmental Research (Alterra), P.O. Box 47 ENVS Aarhus University Department of Applied Research and Agricultural Extension Madrid Institute for Rural Agricultural and Food Research and Development (IMIDRA) Ctra. Madrid-Barcelona (N-II), KM. 38.200, 28802 Alcalá de Henares Finnish Environment Institute, P.O. Box 140 Environmental Change Institute, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road Centre for Ecology & Hydrology Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Postboks 5685 Torgarden Basque Centre for Climate Change (BC3) Scientific Campus of the University of the Basque Country, Sede Building 1, 1st Floor Department of Environmental Sciences, P.O. Box 65, FI-00014 University of Helsinki Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA) Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) Edifici Z (ICTA-ICP), Carrer de les Columnes s/n, Campus de la UAB, 08193 Cerdanyola del Vallès Wageningen University and Research Marine Research (IMARES), P.O. Box 57, 1780 AB, Den Helder, Wageningen Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Constantine the Philosopher University in Nitra, Tr. A. Hlinku 1 Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15 National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture IRSTEA UMR TETIS, 500 rue JF BRETON CENSE – Centre for Environmental and Sustainability Research Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia Universidade Nova de Lisboa Kenya Forestry Research Institute (KEFRI), P.O. Box 20412-0200 Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas (CADIC CONICET), Houssay 200, Ushuaia (9140) Tierra del Fuego Fundación Tecnalia Research & Innovation Energy and Environment Division Parque Tecnológico de Bizkaia C/Geldo, Edificio 700 National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry “Marin Dracea”, Eroilor Blvd 128 Institute of Ecology and Botany MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány u. 2-4. IRIDRA Srl, Via La Marmora, 51 University of Bucharest – Research Center in Systems Ecology and Sustainability, Splaiul Independentei 91-95 IBRAD (Indian Institute of Bio Social Research and Development), VIP Road, Kestopur, Prafulla Kanan UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista Ecology Department – LabTerra, Av.24-A, 1515 CEP, 13506-900 UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista Ecology Department – LabTerra, Av.24-A, 1515 CEP, 13506-900

Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T17:15:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2018-02-01 The ecosystem service (ES) concept is becoming mainstream in policy and planning, but operational influence on practice is seldom reported. Here, we report the practitioners’ perspectives on the practical implementation of the ES concept in 27 case studies. A standardised anonymous survey (n = 246), was used, focusing on the science-practice interaction process, perceived impact and expected use of the case study assessments. Operationalisation of the concept was shown to achieve a gradual change in practices: 13% of the case studies reported a change in action (e.g. management or policy change), and a further 40% anticipated that a change would result from the work. To a large extent the impact was attributed to a well conducted science-practice interaction process (>70%). The main reported advantages of the concept included: increased concept awareness and communication; enhanced participation and collaboration; production of comprehensive science-based knowledge; and production of spatially referenced knowledge for input to planning (91% indicated they had acquired new knowledge). The limitations were mostly case-specific and centred on methodology, data, and challenges with result implementation. The survey highlighted the crucial role of communication, participation and collaboration across different stakeholders, to implement the ES concept and enhance the democratisation of nature and landscape planning. Centre for Ecology and Hydrology, Bush Estate Research Institute for Nature and Forest (INBO), Kliniekstraat 25 Social-ecological Systems Lab Department of Ecology Universidad Autónoma de Madrid, Calle Darwin no. 2, Campus de Cantoblanco Finnish Environment Institute, P.O. Box 140 Institute of Landscape Ecology Slovak Academy of Sciences, Akademická 2 Department of Ecology and Environmental Sciences Constantine the Philosopher University, Trieda A. Hlinku 1 Environmental Social Science Research Group (ESSRG Ltd.), Rómer Flóris u. 38. Department of Decision Sciences Corvinus University of Budapest, Fővám tér 8. Helmholtz-Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ, Permoserstraße 15 CoKnow Consulting – Coproducing Knowledge for Sustainability, Jesewitz CENSE – Centre for Environmental and Sustainability Research Faculdade de Ciências e Tecnologia Universidade Nova de Lisboa, 2829-516 Caparica Institute of Ecology and Botany MTA Centre for Ecological Research, Alkotmány u. 2-4. Institute of Environmental Science and Technology (ICTA) Universitat Autònoma de Barcelona (UAB) Edifici Z (ICTA-ICP), Carrer de les Columnes s/n, Campus de la UAB Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Gaustadalléen 21 Environmental Change Institute, Dyson Perrins Building, South Parks Road Wageningen University and Research Environmental Research (Alterra), P.O. Box 47 European Topic Centre on Biological Diversity Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle, 57 rue Cuvier, FR-75231 Paris Centre for Ecology & Hydrology, Maclean Building, Benson Lane, Crowmarsh Gifford Urban Environment and Territorial Sustainability Area Energy and Environment Dividision Parque Tecnológico de Bizkaia C/Geldo, Edificio 700 University of Bucharest - Research Center in Systems Ecology and Sustainability, Splaiul Independentei 91-95 European Commission – Joint Research Centre (JRC), Via E. Fermi 2749 Institute of Landscape Ecology Slovak Academy of Sciences, Štefánikova 3 UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista Ecology Department – LabTerra, Av. 24-A, 1515 CEP: 13506-900, Rio Claro IRSTEA National Research Institute of Science and Technology for Environment and Agriculture UMR TETIS, 500 rue JF BRETON Centro Austral de Investigaciones Científicas (CADIC CONICET), Houssay 200 Leuphana University of Lüneburg Faculty of Sustainability Institute of Ethics and Transdisciplinary Sustainability Research, Scharnhorststraβe 1 IBRAD (Indian Institute of Bio Social Research and Development), VIP Road, Kestopur, Prafulla Kanan Department of Environmental Sciences, P.O. Box 65, FI-00014 University of Helsinki Kenya Forestry Research Institute (KEFRI), P.O. Box 20412-0200 Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (INTA), CC 332 (9400), Río Gallegos Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral (UNPA) Río Gallegos Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET) INCLINE – Interdisciplinary Climate Change Research Group Instituto de Astronomia e Geofísica USP – Universidade de São Paulo, R. do Matão, 1226 - Butantã Wageningen University & Research – Marine (WUR), P.O. Box 57 National Institute for Research and Development in Forestry “Marin Dracea”, Eroilor Blvd 128 Institute of Nature Conservation and Landscape Management Szent István University, Páter Károly u. 1. Norwegian University of Life Science (NMBU), Universitetstunet 3 Department of Applied Research and Agricultural Extension Madrid Institute for Rural Agricultural and Food Research and Development (IMIDRA), Ctra. Madrid-Barcelona (N-II), KM. 38.200, 28802 Alcalá De Henares Department of International Environment and Development Studies (Noragric) Norwegian University of Life Sciences (NMBU), P.O. Box 5003 Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Fakkelgården VISTA Analyse A/S, Meltzers gate 4 University of Girona, Plaça de Sant Domènec, 3 Basque Centre for Climate Change, Alameda de Urquijo 4 Norwegian Institute for Nature Research (NINA), Postboks 5685 Sluppen De Økonomiske Råd, Amaliegade 44 UNESP – Universidade Estadual Paulista Ecology Department – LabTerra, Av. 24-A, 1515 CEP: 13506-900, Rio Claro

International audience; In environmental valuation, although it is well recognised that the choice of method heavily affects the outcome, little is known on how existing valuation methods actually elicit the different values. Through the assessment of real-life applications of valuation of nature, this study tracks down the suitability of 21 valuation methods for 11 value types and assesses the methodological requirements for their operationalization. We found that different valuation methods have different suitabilities to elicit diverse value-types. Some methods are more specialized than others, but every method has blind spots, which implies risks of biased decision-making. We summarized different value-types according to three value dimensions: non-anthropocentric, relational and instrumental. No single valuation method is able to capture this full spectrum of values of nature. Covering all value dimensions requires careful selection of complementary valuation methods. This study also demonstrates that performing such an integrated valuation does not necessarily entail more resources, as for every value dimension, methods with low to medium operational requirements are available. With this study, we aim to provide guidance for selecting a complementary set of valuation methods in order to develop integrated valuation in practice that includes values of all stakeholders into environmental decision-making. In special issue synthesizing OpenNESS.

Highlights • A structured protocol for adapting a spatial ecosystem service model to local contexts is proposed. • Decision context, the final users and uses of maps should drive the way the spatial ecosystem service models are structured. • Simply increasing spatial resolution is not sufficient to increase legitimacy and the ultimate utility of maps. • The type and level of stakeholders’ involvement is a determinant of spatial model usefulness., Ecosystem service (ES) spatial modelling is a key component of the integrated assessments designed to support policies and management practices aiming at environmental sustainability. ESTIMAP (“Ecosystem Service Mapping Tool”) is a collection of spatially explicit models, originally developed to support policies at a European scale. We based our analysis on 10 case studies, and 3 ES models. Each case study applied at least one model at a local scale. We analyzed the applications with respect to: the adaptation process; the “precision differential” which we define as the variation generated in the model between the degree of spatial variation within the spatial distribution of ES and what the model captures; the stakeholders’ opinions on the usefulness of models. We propose a protocol for adapting ESTIMAP to the local conditions. We present the precision differential as a means of assessing how the type of model and level of model adaptation generate variation among model outputs. We then present the opinion of stakeholders; that in general considered the approach useful for stimulating discussion and supporting communication. Major constraints identified were the lack of spatial data with sufficient level of detail, and the level of expertise needed to set up and compute the models.

Environmental modelling combined with scenarios provides insights into drivers of change, potential implications of different trajectories, and options for action. So far, there has been no endeavor to assess the breadth of assumptions concerning drivers of ecosystem change on a global and European level as used in various scenario approaches. Our paper fills this gap by reviewing drivers of 27 global and European scenarios to provide an overview of extreme assumptions. Additionally, results can support quantification efforts of storylines to test environmental and ES models and to facilitate participatory scenario development to improve the usefulness of modelling approaches for stakeholders.

In Ethiopia, human migration is known to be influenced by environmental change—and vice versa. Thus, degradation of environmental conditions can contribute to out-migration, and in-migration can cause environmental changes at the immigrants’ destination. The aim of our study was to systematically identify regions in which socio-ecological pressures can arise from high population densities, migration, land degradation, and/or rainfall variability. We combined population census data at the district level with high-resolution remote sensing data regarding rainfall variability, land degradation, and land cover. We identified districts in which high population density is coupled with both a steep decline in net primary production (NPP) and large precipitation variability. The affected regions are mainly cropping regions located in the northern highlands and in the central part of the Great Rift Valley. We consider these regions to be particularly prone to environmental changes; moreover, high population density places additional stress on local natural resources. Next, we identified districts in which high in-migration is coupled with both a strong decline in NPP and low rainfall variability, proposing that land degradation in these regions is likely to have resulted from human activity rather than climatic factors. The affected regions include parts of the Awash Valley, regions surrounding Lake Tana, and the mountainous regions between Addis Ababa, Bedele, and Jima. We found these hotspots of in-migration and land degradation are dominantly grasslands regions, which have been characterized by significant cropland expansion during the period studied. Whereas exploring causal relationships between migration, environmental change, and land cover change is beyond the scope of our study, we have pinpointed regions where these processes coincide. Our findings suggest that at the regional scale, deteriorating environmental conditions can be both the cause and the effect of migration.

In Mongolia, nomadic herders have successfully been grazing livestock for more than a millennium. However, in recent years, concerns have increased that changes in management and higher livestock stocking rates may negatively affect vegetation and increase soil erosion, overland flow and sediment load of rivers. In addition, ambitious agricultural policies increase the intensity of agricultural land use thus enforcing a conversion of grassland to agricultural land which is far more susceptible to erosion. In this study, we tackle the question how recent land-use dynamics influence erosion risks and which implications these require on water resources management. The study was part of a larger research effort, studying implementation options for Integrated Water Resources Management (IWRM); in this paper, specifically impacts of land use and land-use change on water resources are studied. The study has been carried out in the Kharaa river basin (KRB) in Northern Mongolia, in which grazing and agriculture play key roles. As several erosion and run-off-relevant factors such as slope, soil type or land use and land cover are widely varying in the KRB, sub-regions of the catchment have been analysed to identify susceptible combinations of environmental and land management factors. In our study we identified that erosion risks in the sub-catchments under current land use and management calculated with the Revised Universal Soil Loss Equation sum up to approximately 2–4 Mg ha−1 year−1 for steppe and 4–9 Mg ha−1 year−1 for croplands, while erosion rates calculated using 137CS measurements resulted in 2–3 Mg ha−1 year−1 on steppe and 15 Mg ha−1 year−1 on cropland. Erosion risk scenarios indicate that land use change as well as management and climate factors can reduce (−30 %) or aggravate erosion risks up to sevenfold and contribute to additional challenges in water and soil management in the KRB. Strategies have to be developed to limit land conversion and implement soil protection in erosion prone sub-regions. IWRM has the potential to bridge sectorial measures, e.g. in agriculture, rural development or nature protection, but erosion and runoff-related impacts currently are addressed in different institutions, legal frameworks and regulations, which may slow down or hamper efficient measures.

Bioenergy is receiving increasing attention because it may reduce greenhouse gas emissions, secure and diversify energy supplies and stimulate rural development. The environmental sustainability of bioenergy production systems is often determined through life-cycle assessments that focus on global environmental effects, such as the emission of greenhouse gases or air pollutants. Local/regional environmental impacts, e.g., the impacts on soil or on biodiversity, require site-specific and flexible options for the assessment of environmental sustainability, such as the criteria and indicators used in bioenergy certification schemes. In this study, we compared certification schemes and assessed the indicator quality through the environmental impact categories, using a standardized rating scale to evaluate the indicators. Current certification schemes have limitations in their representation of the environmental systems affected by feedstock production. For example, these schemes predominantly use feasible causal indicators, instead of more reliable but less feasible effect indicators. Furthermore, the comprehensiveness of the depicted environmental systems and the causal links between human land use activities and biophysical processes in these systems have been assessed. Bioenergy certification schemes seem to demonstrate compliance with underlying legislation, such as the EU Renewable Energy Directive, rather than ensure environmental sustainability. Beyond, certification schemes often lack a methodology or thresholds for sustainable biomass use. Lacking thresholds, imprecise causal links and incomplete indicator sets may hamper comparisons of the environmental performances of different feedstocks. To enhance existing certification schemes, we propose combining the strengths of several certification schemes with research-based indicators, to increase the reliability of environmental assessments.

Made available in DSpace on 2018-12-11T16:44:22Z (GMT). No. of bitstreams: 0 Previous issue date: 2016-12-01 Fundação de Amparo à Pesquisa do Estado de São Paulo (FAPESP) In this paper the initial draft design of a payment for ecosystem services (PES) scheme in a municipality within the sugarcane belt of São Paulo state, Brazil (PES-RC), is compared with prevailing characteristics of successful PES cases in Latin America (PES-LA). This systematic comparison is performed by analyzing four major characteristics of PES: identity of traded ecosystem service (ES); spatial scale; type of transaction involved between ES providers and beneficiaries; and the involved actors. Information on the biophysical characteristics, institutional arrangement and financial options of PES-RC were assessed using participatory methods. We found that on the one hand there is an agreement between our case study and the prevailing successful cases of PES-LA regarding the traded ES (water) and the PES spatial scale (local). However, stakeholder opinions diverge from the success cases when it comes to the type of transaction (cash preferred in PES-RC; in-kind in successful PES-LA) and the involved actors. Our results raise the question whether stakeholder opinions or the characteristics of successful (or failure) cases should be prioritized when planning and operationalizing new PES schemes. We argue that stakeholder participation should be considered as an additional success criterion for the construction of public policies directed towards PES implementation. Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Biodiversidade - Instituto de Biociências Universidade Estadual Paulista – UNESP Laboratório de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre Departamento de Ecologia Universidade Estadual Paulista – UNESP, Avenida 24-A, 1515, CEP INCLINE Instituto de Astronomia e Geofísica Universidade de São Paulo – USP Department Computational Landscape Ecology Helmholtz Centre for Environmental Research – UFZ Programa de Pós-graduação em Ecologia e Biodiversidade - Instituto de Biociências Universidade Estadual Paulista – UNESP Laboratório de Ciência do Sistema Terrestre Departamento de Ecologia Universidade Estadual Paulista – UNESP, Avenida 24-A, 1515, CEP FAPESP: 2014/08345-0

Land-use and land-cover changes are driving unprecedented changes in ecosystems and environmental processes at different scales. This study was aimed at identifying the potential land-use drivers in the Jedeb catchment of the Abbay basin by combining statistical analysis, field investigation and remote sensing. To do so, a land-use change model was calibrated and evaluated using the SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environment) modelling framework. SITE is cellular automata based multi-criteria decision analysis framework for simulating land-use conversion based on socio-economic and environmental factors. Past land-use trajectories (1986–2009) were evaluated using a reference Landsat-derived map (agreement of 84%). Results show that major land-use change drivers in the study area were population, slope, livestock and distances from various infrastructures (roads, markets and water). It was also found that farmers seem to increasingly prefer plantations of trees such as Eucalyptus by replacing croplands perhaps mainly due to declining crop yield, soil fertility and climate variability. Potential future trajectory of land-use change was also predicted under a business-as-usual scenario (2009–2025). Results show that agricultural land will continue to expand from 69.5% in 2009 to 77.5% in 2025 in the catchment albeit at a declining rate when compared with the period from 1986 to 2009. Plantation forest will also increase at a much higher rate, mainly at the expense of natural vegetation, agricultural land and grasslands. This study provides critical information to land-use planners and policy makers for a more effective and proactive management in this highland catchment.

Meeting the world's growing energy demand through bioenergy production involves extensive land-use change which could have severe environmental and social impacts. Second generation bioenergy feedstocks offer a possible solution to this problem. They have the potential to reduce land-use conflicts between food and bioenergy production as they can be grown on low quality land not suitable for food production. However, a comprehensive impact assessment that considers multiple ecosystem services (ESS) and biodiversity is needed to identify the environmentally best feedstock option, as trade-offs are inherent. In this study, we simulate the spatial distribution of short rotation coppices (SRCs) in the landscape of the Mulde watershed in Central Germany by modeling profit-maximizing farmers under different economic and policy-driven scenarios using a spatially explicit economic simulation model. This allows to derive general insights and a mechanistic understanding of regional-scale impacts on multiple ESS in the absence of large-scale implementation. The modeled distribution of SRCs, required to meet the regional demand of combined heat and power (CHP) plants for solid biomass, had little or no effect on the provided ESS. In the policy-driven scenario, placing SRCs on low or high quality soils to provide ecological focus areas, as required within the Common Agricultural Policy in the EU, had little effect on ESS. Only a substantial increase in the SRC production area, beyond the regional demand of CHP plants, had a relevant effect, namely a negative impact on food production as well as a positive impact on biodiversity and regulating ESS. Beneficial impacts occurred for single ESS. However, the number of sites with balanced ESS supply hardly increased due to larger shares of SRCs in the landscape. Regression analyses showed that the occurrence of sites with balanced ESS supply was more strongly driven by biophysical factors than by the SRC share in the landscape. This indicates that SRCs negligibly affect trade-offs between individual ESS. Coupling spatially explicit economic simulation models with environmental and ESS assessment models can contribute to a comprehensive impact assessment of bioenergy feedstocks that have not yet been planted.

Biofuel initiatives in India have gained momentum with the national biofuel policy targeting 20% blending of both petrol and diesel by 2017. Most of India's biofuel plans revolve around using sugarcane for bioethanol and jatropha for biodiesel production. This study, taking the southern Indian state of Karnataka as an example, aims at estimating the potential to achieve policy targets. The study spatially analyses land-use change owing to biofuel expansion and its effects on food production. We used an integrated modelling framework to simulate land-use change and bioenergy production under two scenarios Industrial Economy (IE) and Agricultural Economy (AE). Results indicate that meeting the 20% blending target is a challenging goal to achieve under both scenarios. Bioethanol requirements can be nearly fulfilled (88% under IE and 93% under AE) because of sugarcane expansion. However, biodiesel demands cannot be fulfilled using only degraded lands as currently planned in India, but additional agricultural land (34% of the total cropland) will be required for jatropha-based biodiesel production. Food production will not be directly impacted until 2025, because the largest source of additional land could be short- and long-term fallows. We conclude that conservation oriented initiatives, such as water harvesting and energy conservation measures can increase productivities of biofuel crops and reduce fuel demands, respectively. State support and Clean Development Mechanism opportunities can enhance economic incentives for energy cropping. Therefore, a simultaneous and multipronged approach is needed to accommodate food and fuel demands in India.

In this paper we present the generic modelling system SITE (SImulation of Terrestrial Environments), a software package to develop and apply models simulating regional land-use dynamics. The modelling system includes (i) a framework managing the model generics and (ii) code templates for the development of rule-based land-use and land-cover change (LUCC) models. SITE comprises built-in methods for e.g. map comparison, model optimization and environmental scenarios.

After two decades of decreasing agricultural activities, in 2008 the Mongolian government started the “Third Campaign of Reclaiming Virgin Lands”, aiming at massive expansion and intensification of the agricultural sector. This policy motivated the study presented here, for which we used an integrated modelling approach to investigate the feedbacks between land-use dynamics, agricultural management and biophysical conditions, with a strong focus on assessing availability of water for irrigation. Our simulation results clearly show that under the current extend of irrigated agriculture in several years water demands exceeded water availability, indicating an overexploitation of water resources, mainly in the period 1995–2006. Consequently, the targeted expansion of agricultural water use will either severely deplete water resources with potential negative effects on other users and the environment, or policies are needed to mitigate or avoid potential adverse effects. As simultaneously Mongolian authorities struggle to implement integrated water resources management (IWRM), the latter might provide monitoring concepts and regulations needed to minimise the potential gap between water demands and availability. In this context, integrated modelling could be a scientific tool to support future land and water management decisions, as researchers already started to integrate views and demands of Mongolian authorities into scenario and model development (identified during stakeholder workshops), and will continue to do so during the coming years of collaborative research.

India announced a long-awaited and much-needed national biofuel policy in December 2009 with a mandate of achieving 20% blending of bioethanol and biodiesel by 2017. However, while the determination of specific time-bound targets is a crucial step in the Indian biofuel program, several aspects of the guidelines reflect uncertainty that may render the 20% target unachievable. This perspective traces the rapid changes in political strategies of biofuels in India over the last decade and reviews significant scientific progress, achieved in the same period. Our observation indicates that biofuel policies in India have followed a zigzag course interspersed with several positive initiatives, severely discouraging advocacies and occasional neglect of biofuels. The multiplicity of related policies, each partially addressing biofuel issues have amounted to increasing ambiguity. We present an analysis of the tenets of the current policy with respect to land availability, related land use, and economic and marketing institutions, which are some of the important determinants of success for the Indian biofuel program. Some recommendations emanating from the analysis are (1) to estimate of available land and land use change effects; (2) to build resilience for energy crops towards climate change; and (3) to strengthen marketing and financial mechanisms at grass-roots level. In conclusion we emphasize the need for timely scientific assessments and the subsequent incorporation into policy formulation to enable India to achieve the overall goal of sustainable biofuel production. 2010 Society of Chemical Industry and John Wiley a Sons, Ltd

India’s energy dependence on oil imports has led to energy security becoming a prime concern for policy makers and has thus warranted an exploration of alternative energy sources. Globally rising oil prices have led to greater interest in the development of bioenergy from plant based systems. This paper examines various policy options and mechanisms with respect to biofuel oilseed crops like Jatropha curcas and Pongamia pinnata, the potential of the expansion of sugarcane as a source of bioethanol and the emergence of the increased inclination towards afforestation of wastelands and associated implications and challenges. Historical land use data indicates that the agricultural area in India has stabilized over the last decades and has little opportunities of expansion. Considering India’s still fast growing population, it is expected that land use conversions due to new bioenergy cropping systems are likely to intensify the already existing competition between residential/industrial land, and land required for food and energy generation. The paper reviews national and sub-national scale case studies, which are addressing a number of different topics related to bioenergy production, such as intensity of land use, crop yields, potential land demands or scenarios blending petrol with bioethanol.

Agriculture has become a key element within the earth system as it changes global biogeochemical and water cycles, while global environmental change affects land productivity and thus future land-use decisions. To address these issues and their complex interdependency in a consistent modelling approach we adapted the agro-ecosystem model DayCent for the simulation of major crops at the global scale. Based on a global compilation of environmental and management data and an algorithm to calculate global planting dates, DayCent was parameterised and calibrated to simulate global yield levels for wheat, maize, rice and soybeans. Simulation results show that the DayCent model is able to reproduce the major effects of climate, soil and management on crop production. Average simulated crop yield per country agree well with agricultural statistics (Modelling efficiency is about 0.66 for wheat, rice and maize, and 0.32 for soybean) and spatial patterns of yields generally correspond to observed crop distributions and sub-national census data.

Nutrient flux and balance studies are valuable tools to assess the sustainability of agro-ecosystems and potential consequences for agricultural productivity. This paper presents results from a study at the field/farm scale representing mixed farming systems typical for the East African Highlands. We selected catchments in the Dega (cool highlands and Woina Dega (warm-to-cool mid-highlands) of the Central Highlands of Ethiopia, to get more insight on how individual land use strategies and access to resources affect the magnitude of nutrient flows and resulting balances and to explore some of reasons of the variability within and between farming systems at different altitudes. Our results show that environmental condition, farming system (e.g. choice of crop), access to resources (e.g. land, livestock and fertilizer) and smallholders’ source of off farm income influence the magnitude of nutrient fluxes and the degree to which nutrient fluxes may be imbalanced. In some respects our results differ from studies carried out at larger (i.e. more aggregated) spatial scales, which consistently show that homestead fields are zones of accumulation and distant fields as zone of depletion. Our results indicate that this is not always the case, and highlight the need for studies at the field and farm scales to include detailed biophysical and socioeconomic information to help explain major nutrient fluxes and to evaluate the system with respect to sustainable production.

Scenarios are employed to address a large number of future environmental and socioeconomic challenges. We present a conceptual framework for the development of scenarios to integrate the objectives of different stakeholder groups. Based on the framework, land-use scenarios were developed to provide a common base for further research. At the same time, these scenarios assisted regional stakeholders to bring forward their concerns and arrive at a shared understanding of challenges between scientific and regional stakeholders, which allowed them to eventually support regional decision making. The focus on the integration of views and knowledge domains of different stakeholder groups, such as scientists and practitioners, required rigorous and repeated measures of quality control. The application of the integrative concept provided products for both stakeholder groups, and the process of scenario development facilitated cooperation and learning within both the scientist and practitioner groups as well as between the two groups.

Natural vegetation mosaics of heterogeneous forests, shrubs and savanna are characteristic for the thinly populated Venezuelan Guayana. Vegetation studies and 14C data suggested that the mosaic represents a stage in a long-term process of savannisation, which is originally triggered by forest fires. In the paper, we are looking for the possible role the soil plays in this process. Vegetation structure and soil chemical conditions were analyzed in 74 plots. We further studied the composition of soil solution or water extract, fine root distribution, aboveground biomass and total nutrient stores in selected sites. The soils are humic ferralsols and under woody vegetation, always covered by an organic layer (8–114 t ha−1). The mineral soil is characterized by high organic matter content (0–50 cm: 113–165 t C ha−1), a low cation exchange capacity of the mineral soil (0.94 cmolc kg−1 of clay), and a dominant Al saturation of the exchange complex. Under forest, Ca concentrations on the exchange complex, and in the soil solution/water extract, rank below that of NH4, K, Mg and Fe. Ca-deficiency is considered the main element of the chemical stress responsible for the extremely shallow rooting (

This paper introduces some of the issues that are relevant to the spatially explicit modeling of land use systems. A short overview is given of the ways and means in which a number of different land use change models describe the land use system. Specific attention is given to the empirical modeling approach used in the CLUE (Conversion of Land Use and its Effects) modeling framework. This approach is demonstrated for three case studies in China, Ecuador and the Atlantic Zone of Costa Rica. These case-studies illustrate the methodology for multi-scale analysis of land use driving factors and their application in spatially explicit modeling exercises. Model functioning, performance and limitations are discussed. The presented case-studies indicate that empirical modeling results can contribute to a better theoretic imbedding of land use change research in scale sensitive and integrated theories.

The distribution of vegetation types in Venezuelan Guyana (in the ‘Canaima’ National Park) represents a transitional stage in a long term process of savannization, a process considered to be conditioned by a combined chemical and intermittent drought stress. All types of woody vegetation in this environment accumulate large amounts of litter and soil organic carbon (SOC). We hypothesized that this accumulation is caused by low microbial activity. During 1 year we measured microbial biomass carbon (Cmic), microbial respiration and soil respiration of stony Oxisols (Acrohumox) at a tall, a medium and a low forest and with three chemical modifications of site conditions by the addition of NO 3 − , Ca 2+ and PO 4 3− as possible limiting elements. Due to high SOC contents, mean Cmic was 1 mg g soil −1 in the mineral topsoil and 3 mg g soil −1 in the forest floor. Mean microbial respiration in the mineral topsoil and the forest floor were 165 and 192 μg CO 2 -C g soil −1 d −1 , respectively. We calculated high mean metabolic quotients ( q CO 2 ) of 200 mg CO 2 -C g Cmic −1 d −1 in the litter layer and 166 mg CO 2 -C g Cmic −1 d −1 in the mineral topsoil, while the Cmic-to-SOC ratios were as low as 1.0% in the litter layer and 0.8% in the mineral topsoil. Annual soil respiration was 9, 12 and 10 Mg CO 2 -C ha −1 yr −1 in the tall, medium and low forest, respectively. CO 2 production was significantly increased by CaHPO 4 fertilization, but no consistent effects were caused by Ca 2+ and NO 3 − , fertilization. Our findings indicate that Cmic and microbial respiration are reduced by low nutrient concentrations and low litter and SOC quality. Reduced microbial decomposition may have contributed to SOC accumulation in these forests.

Climate change scenarios vary considerably over the Amazon region, with an extreme scenario projecting a dangerous (from the human perspective) increase of 3.8°C in temperature and 30% reduction in precipitation by 2050. The impacts of such climate change on Amazonian land-use dynamics, agricultural production, and deforestation rates are still to be determined. In this study, the authors make a first attempt to assess these impacts through a systemic approach, using a spatially explicit modeling framework to project crop yield and land-use/land-cover changes in the Brazilian Amazon by 2050. The results show that, without any adaptation, climate change may exert a critical impact on the yields of crops commonly cultivated in the Amazon (e.g., soybean yields are reduced by 44% in the worst-case scenario). Therefore, following baseline projections on crop and livestock production, a scenario of severe regional climate change would cause additional deforestation of 181 000 km2 (+20%) in the Amazon and 240 000 km2 (+273%) in the Cerrado compared to a scenario of moderate climate change. Putting an end to deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon forest by 2020 (and of the Cerrado by 2025) would require either a reduction of 26%–40% in livestock production until 2050 or a doubling of average livestock density from 0.74 to 1.46 head per hectare. These results suggest that (i) climate change can affect land use in ways not previously explored, such as the reduction of yields entailing further deforestation, and (ii) there is a need for an integrated/multidisciplinary plan for adaptation to climate change in the Amazon.

The planned expansion of biofuel plantations in Brazil could potentially cause both direct and indirect land-use changes (e.g., biofuel plantations replace rangelands, which replace forests). In this study, we use a spatially explicit model to project land-use changes caused by that expansion in 2020, assuming that ethanol (biodiesel) production increases by 35 (4) x 10 9 liter in the 2003-2020 period. Our simulations show that direct land-use changes will have a small impact on carbon emissions because most biofuel plantations would replace rangeland areas. However, indirect land-use changes, especially those pushing the rangeland frontier into the Amazonian forests, could offset the carbon savings from biofuels. Sugarcane ethanol and soybean biodiesel each contribute to nearly half of the projected indirect deforestation of 121,970 km 2 by 2020, creating a carbon debt that would take about 250 years to be repaid using these biofuels instead of fossil fuels. We also tested different crops that could serve as feedstock to fulfill Brazil’s biodiesel demand and found that oil palm would cause the least land-use changes and associated carbon debt. The modeled livestock density increases by 0.09 head per hectare. But a higher increase of 0.13 head per hectare in the average livestock density throughout the country could avoid the indirect land-use changes caused by biofuels (even with soybean as the biodiesel feedstock), while still fulfilling all food and bioenergy demands. We suggest that a closer collaboration or strengthened institutional link between the biofuel and cattle-ranching sectors in the coming years is crucial for effective carbon savings from biofuels in Brazil.

The governments of Brazil and India are planning a large expansion of bioethanol and biodiesel production in the next decade. Considering that limitation of suitable land and/or competition with other land uses might occur in both countries, assessments of potential crop productivity can contribute to an improved planning of land requirements for biofuels under high productivity or marginal conditions. In this paper we model the potential productivity of sugarcane and jatropha in both countries. Land requirements for such expansions are calculated according to policy scenarios based on government targets for biofuel production in 2015. Spatial variations in the potential productivity lead to rather different land requirements, depending on where plantations are located. If jatropha is not irrigated, land requirements to fulfill the Indian government plans in 2015 would be of 410000 to 95000 km(2) if grown in low or high productivity areas respectively (mean of 212000 km(2)). In Brazil land requirements, are of 18000-89000 km(2) (mean of 29 000 km(2)), suggesting a promising substitute to soybean biodiesel. Although future demand for sugarcane ethanol in Brazil is approximately ten times larger than in India, land requirements are comparable in both countries due to large differences in ethanol production systems. in Brazil this requirement ranges from 25 000 to 211000 km(2) (mean of 33000 km(2)) and in India from 7000 to 161000 km(2) (mean 17000 km. Irrigation could reduce the land requirements by 63% and 41% (24% and 15%) in India (Brazil) for jatropha and sugarcane respectively. (C) 2009 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

Forest soils in central Europe have received high atmospheric inputs of protons, sulphate and nitrogen (Chap. 15) since the beginning of industrialisation. As a result, chemical and biological processes in many German forest soils have changed (Godbold and Huttermann 1994) and soil characteristics like pH, base saturation and C/N ratios have altered (Chap. 21). The mechanisms of the fate and the retention of this high atmospheric input of nitrogen still remain unclear. There are reports indicating that, despite high N-deposition since the beginning of the nineteenth century, most forests continue to retain nitrogen (Ulrich 1994; Johnson et al. 1997; Dise et al. 1998; Borken and Matzner 2004) even when the low C/N ratios in the surface organic layer have become low (Brumme and Khanna 2008). This raises the question of the retention mechanisms of nitrogen in forest soils. The use of labelled nitrogen makes it easy to follow internal nitrogen cycle of N-inputs in forest ecosystems (Nadelhoffer et al. 2004; Tietema et al. 1998; Feng et al. 2008) and soils (Mochoge and Beese 1983a, b). Often, labelled nitrogen is applied in a single dose which provides information on the nitrogen transformation rates under the current environmental conditions of addition. We applied constant rates of 15N labelled ammonium and nitrate as an artificial crown drip for long periods on undisturbed soil columns (Brumme and Aden 1995) under field and laboratory conditions in order to simulate continuous N-depositions so as to follow N-transformations under close to field conditions.

Carbon and nitrogen are squantitatively important elements in forest ecosystems. Most of the carbon and nitrogen are stored in the soil and have a long turnover time. Only a small fraction of the N-pool is cycled every year through growth and litter fall and mineralisation of litter. Industrialisation has caused high acid and nitrogen inputs to ecosystems which have affected carbon and nitrogen stocks and mineralisation processes in forest ecosystems. In addition, global change of temperature and precipitation will also have a direct influence on carbon and nitrogen cycles in the short-term and on their stocks in the long-term. In order to detect measurable changes in the carbon and nitrogen stocks of forest soils, several decades and sometimes centuries may be needed because they have by nature high spatial variability and occur in large stocks. Therefore, it is very difficult to obtain information on fluxes of these elements by measuring changes in the bulk stocks. Direct measurements of input and output fluxes may provide useful information to assess any changes of the bulk stocks, and on understanding of human-induced changes in the mineralisation processes, as long as the values of input and output fluxes can be accurately measured.

Soil fertility depletion in smallholder farms is one of the fundamental biophysical causes for declining per capita food production in Ethiopia. In the present study, we assess soil nutrient depletion and its spatial variability for Ethiopia and its regional states, using nutrient balances as a tool. Data on crop production, fertilizer use and land management practices were collected from the Agricultural sample survey, which was carried out by the Central Statistics Authority (CSA) for the production year 1999/2000. We used a Geographic Information System (GIS) to process, and analyze spatially referenced information like soil properties, precipitation and land use types. We calculated nutrient balances for N, P and K from five nutrient fluxes entering and five nutrient fluxes leaving cultivated lands of smallholders. Some of the fluxes (e.g. leaching, denitrification and wet deposition) were estimated using transfer functions. Erosion was estimated by universal soil loss equation (USLE) and landscape process modelling at multi-dimensions and scales (LAPSUS). At the national level, full nutrient balance results indicate a depletion rate of 122 kg N ha −1 yr −1 , 13 kg P ha −1 yr −1 and 82 kg K ha −1 yr −1 . Soil nutrient stocks in all regional states were decreasing with the exception of areas under permanent and vegetable crops. In the analysis, soil erosion was the major cause for nutrients depletion, but this flux shows significant variability between different estimates and was highly uncertain. We calculated that the contribution of erosion to N losses was 70%, while its contribution to P and K losses were 80% and 63%, respectively. Nutrient losses under permanent and vegetable cropping were caused mainly by residues removal, harvested products and leaching, while losses under cereals and other annuals were dominated by erosion.

Changes in land use affect input and output fluxes of nutrients and carbon in soils and vegetation. This can lead to changing soil fertility, which in turn will affect biomass production and human decisions in land management. Next to a local impact on land quality, changing biogeochemical cycles can also have a global impact through the emission of greenhouse gasses. The drivers and processes of land use change related nutrient and carbon fluxes are scale-dependent. In this paper, we propose a conceptual dynamic approach (CLUE–Nuts) for the modelling of the interaction between land use change and nutrient and carbon fluxes. It is based on the integration of a spatially explicit multi-scale land use change model (CLUE) with a nutrient monitoring approach (NUTMON). Near future changes in the areas of agricultural crops and natural vegetation can be modelled in scenarios and their effects on soil nutrient and carbon status estimated. Feedback mechanisms for major crops can be included, taking into account that matter fluxes can alter carbon and nutrient stocks considerably. The feasibility of the new approach is illustrated with data from a case study for Ecuador. From these preliminary results it is concluded that CLUE–Nuts is a powerful tool to predict crop specific near future land use and related nutrient fluxes. The suggested feedback mechanisms are suitable for major crops with excellent data representation, and are subject of further refinement and research.