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Cholera is a virulent intestinal infection caused by Vibrio cholerae strains. To explore multiple effects of spatial structure, seasonality and human behavior change on cholera transmission, we establish a reaction-advection-diffusion model with a general boundary condition at the downstream end of the river. We derive the basic reproduction number R 0 and discuss its asymptotic behaviors. We further show that R 0 is a strictly decreasing function of the bacterial loss c , which reveals that the bacterial loss at the downstream end of the river due to water flux reduces the risk of cholera transmission. Then we derive a threshold-type result in terms of R 0. More precisely, (i) if R 0 < 1 , the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive; (ii) if R 0 > 1 , the disease is uniformly persistent; (iii) if R 0 = 1 , the disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable in the absence of the advection term, in which the proof is quite challenging due to the introduction of human behavior change, involving some subtle inequalities and estimates. Numerically, an application is demonstrated by investigating the cholera outbreak in Somalia from 1995 to 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seventh cholera pandemic started in 1961 in Indonesia and spread across the world in three waves in the decades that followed. Here, we utilised genomic evidence to detail the first wave of the seventh pandemic. Genomes of 22 seventh pandemic Vibrio cholerae isolates from 1961 to 1979 were completely sequenced. Together with 152 publicly available genomes from the same period, they fell into seven phylogenetic clusters (CL1-CL7). By multilevel genome typing (MGT), all were assigned to MGT2 ST1 (Wave 1) except three isolates in CL7 which were typed as MGT2 ST2 (Wave 2). The Wave 1 seventh pandemic expanded in two stages, with Stage 1 (CL1-CL5) spread across Asia and Stage 2 (CL6 and CL7) spread to the Middle East and Africa. Three non-synonymous mutations, one each, in three regulatory genes, csrD (global regulator), acfB (chemotaxis), and luxO (quorum sensing) may have critically contributed to its pandemicity. The three MGT2 ST2 isolates in CL7 were the progenitors of Wave 2 and evolved from within Wave 1 with acquisition of a novel IncA/C plasmid. Our findings provide new insight into the evolution and transmission of the early seventh pandemic, which may aid future cholera prevention and control., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

In Bangladesh, Vibrio cholerae lineages are undergoing genomic evolution, with increased virulence and spreading ability. However, our understanding of the genomic determinants influencing lineage transmission and disease severity remains incomplete. Here, we developed a computational framework using machine-learning, genome scale metabolic modelling (GSSM) and 3D structural analysis, to identify V. cholerae genomic traits linked to lineage transmission and disease severity. We analysed in-patients isolates from six Bangladeshi regions (2015-2021), and uncovered accessory genes and core SNPs unique to the most recent dominant lineage, with virulence, motility and bacteriophage resistance functions. We also found a strong correlation between V. cholerae genomic traits and disease severity, with some traits overlapping those driving lineage transmission. GSMM and 3D structure analysis unveiled a complex interplay between transcription regulation, protein interaction and stability, and metabolic networks, associated to lifestyle adaptation, intestinal colonization, acid tolerance and symptom severity. Our findings support advancing therapeutics and targeted interventions to mitigate cholera spread., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Diverse modelling techniques in cholera epidemiology have been developed and used to (1) study its transmission dynamics, (2) predict and manage cholera outbreaks, and (3) assess the impact of various control and mitigation measures. In this study, we carry out a critical and systematic review of various approaches used for modelling the dynamics of cholera. Also, we discuss the strengths and weaknesses of each modelling approach. A systematic search of articles was conducted in Google Scholar, PubMed, Science Direct, and Taylor & Francis. Eligible studies were those concerned with the dynamics of cholera excluding studies focused on models for cholera transmission in animals, socio-economic factors, and genetic & molecular related studies. A total of 476 peer-reviewed articles met the inclusion criteria, with about 40% (32%) of the studies carried out in Asia (Africa). About 52%, 21%, and 9%, of the studies, were based on compartmental (e.g., SIRB), statistical (time series and regression), and spatial (spatiotemporal clustering) models, respectively, while the rest of the analysed studies used other modelling approaches such as network, machine learning and artificial intelligence, Bayesian, and agent-based approaches. Cholera modelling studies that incorporate vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen are scarce and a small portion of researchers (3.99%) considers the estimation of key epidemiological parameters. Vaccination only platform was utilized as a control measure in more than half (58%) of the studies. Research productivity in cholera epidemiological modelling studies have increased in recent years, but authors used diverse range of models. Future models should consider incorporating vector/housefly transmission of the pathogen and on the estimation of key epidemiological parameters for the transmission of cholera dynamics., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2024 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Cholera, a devastating diarrheal disease that caused several global pandemics in the last centuries, may share some similarities with the new COVID‐19. Cholera has affected many populations in history and still remains a significant burden in developing countries. The main transmission route was thought to be predominantly through contaminated drinking water. However, revisiting the historical data collected during the Copenhagen 1853 cholera outbreak allowed us to re‐evaluate the role of drinking‐water transmission in a city‐wide outbreak and reconsider some critical transmission routes, which have been neglected since the time of John Snow. Recent empirical and cohort data from Bangladesh also strengthened the dynamic potentiality of other transmission routes (food, fomite, fish, flies) for transmitting cholera. Analyzing this particular nature of the cholera disease transmission, this paper will describe how the pattern of transmission routes are similar to COVID‐19 and how the method of revisiting old data can be used for further exploration of new and known diseases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity. We assess current methodological approaches to these issues via a case study of the 2010-2019 cholera epidemic in Haiti. We consider three dynamic models developed by expert teams to advise on vaccination policies. We evaluate previous methods used for fitting these models, and we demonstrate modified data analysis strategies leading to improved statistical fit. Specifically, we present approaches for diagnosing model misspecification and the consequent development of improved models. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of recent advances in likelihood maximization for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamic models, enabling likelihood-based inference for spatiotemporal incidence data using this class of models. Our workflow is reproducible and extendable, facilitating future investigations of this disease system., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Wheeler et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Studies have reported the occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in fish but little is known about the interaction between fish and toxigenic V. cholerae as opposed to phytoplankton, which are well-established aquatic reservoirs for V. cholerae. The present study determined the role of tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) as a reservoir host for survival and transmission of V. cholerae in aquatic environments. Three experiments were performed with one repetition each, where O. niloticus (∼2 g) kept in beakers were inoculated with four V. cholerae strains (5 × 107 cfu/mL). Firstly, infected tilapia were kept in stagnant water and fed live brine shrimp (Artemia salina) larvae daily. Secondly, infected tilapia were kept without feeding and water was changed every 24 h. Thirdly, infected tilapia were fed and water was renewed daily. Infected tilapia and non-infected controls were sacrificed on days 1, 2, 3, 7, and 14 post-inoculation and V. cholerae were enumerated in intestinal content and water. Another experiment assessed the transmission of V. cholerae from infected to non-infected tilapia. The study revealed that El Tor biotype V. cholerae O1 and V. cholerae non-O1 colonized tilapia intestines and persisted at stable concentrations during the second week of the experiment whereas the Classical biotype was undetectable after 1 week. In stagnant water with feeding, V. cholerae counts dropped to 105 cfu/ml in water and from 107 to 104 cfu/intestine in fish after 14 days. When water was renewed, counts in water decreased from 107 to 103 cfu/ml and intestinal counts went from 106 to 102 cfu/intestine regardless of feeding. All strains were transmitted from infected to naïve fish after 24 h of cohabitation. Tilapia like other fish may play an essential role in the survival and dissemination of V. cholerae O1 in aquatic environments, e.g., the seventh pandemic strains mostly. In this study, tilapia were exposed to high concentrations of V. cholerae to ensure initial uptake and follow-up studies with lower doses resembling natural concentrations of V. cholerae in the aquatic environment are needed to confirm our findings.

Many forcibly displaced people reside in camps characterised by precarious living conditions, exposing them to numerous health risks. This scoping review elucidated the risk factors and exposure routes implicated in outbreaks of faecal-oral pathogens in camps, as well as the context-specific drivers of transmission that shape these outbreaks. Journal articles were identified from PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science. Portals for grey literature were also searched. A total of 48 records, published between 1937 and 2022, were included in the analysis. Cholera outbreaks were the most frequently reported. Risk factors included drinking water from shallow wells and rivers, consuming ice and leftover food, and inconsistent handwashing. These indicate exposure through vehicles of transmission in both public and domestic domains, emphasising the importance of a multipronged approach to outbreak prevention and control. Outbreaks were often exacerbated by extreme weather events and acute population influxes that damage or overwhelm water and sanitation facilities. Such shocks warrant explicit recommendations in preparedness and response guidelines. Development projects and outbreak response measures in surrounding areas may reduce the risk of importing pathogens into camps. Future research could further investigate faecal-oral pathogens other than Vibrio cholerae and analyse the co-occurrence of the identified transmission drivers.

The bacteria Vibrio cholerae relies heavily upon an aquatic reservoir as a transmission route with two distinct serotypes observed in many recent outbreaks. In this paper, we extend previously studied ordinary differential equation epidemiological models to create a two-strain SIRP (susceptible-infectious-recovered-pathogen) system which incorporates both partial cross-immunity between disease strains and environmental pathogen transmission. Of particular interest are undamped anti-phase periodic solutions, as these display a type of coexistence where strains routinely switch dominance, and understanding what drives this switch can optimize the efficiency of the host population's control measures against the disease. We derive the basic reproduction number R 0 and use stability analysis to examine the disease free and single-strain equilibria. We formulate a unique coexistence equilibrium and prove uniform persistence of both strains when R 0 >1. In addition, we simulate solutions to this system, along with seasonally forced versions of the model with and without host coinfection. Cross-immunity and transmission pathways influence damped or sustained oscillatory dynamics, where the presence of seasonality can modify, amplify or synchronize the period and phase of serotypes, driving epidemic waves. Cycling of serotypes over large time intervals, similar to observed data, is found for a range of cross-immunity levels, and the inclusion of coinfection in the model contributes to sustained anti-phase periodic solutions., Competing Interests: Declaration of competing interest The authors confirm that there is no financial/personal interest or belief that could affect their objectivity, or if there is, stating the source and nature of that potential conflict., (Copyright © 2023 Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Studies have reported the occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in fish but little is known about the interaction between fish and toxigenic V. cholerae as opposed to phytoplankton, which are well-established aquatic reservoirs for V. cholerae. The present study determined the role of tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) as a reservoir host for survival and transmission of V. cholerae in aquatic environments. Three experiments were performed with one repetition each, where O. niloticus (∼2 g) kept in beakers were inoculated with four V. cholerae strains (5 × 107 cfu/mL). Firstly, infected tilapia were kept in stagnant water and fed live brine shrimp (Artemia salina) larvae daily. Secondly, infected tilapia were kept without feeding and water was changed every 24 h. Thirdly, infected tilapia were fed and water was renewed daily. Infected tilapia and non-infected controls were sacrificed on days 1, 2, 3, 7, and 14 post-inoculation and V. cholerae were enumerated in intestinal content and water. Another experiment assessed the transmission of V. cholerae from infected to non-infected tilapia. The study revealed that El Tor biotype V. cholerae O1 and V. cholerae non-O1 colonized tilapia intestines and persisted at stable concentrations during the second week of the experiment whereas the Classical biotype was undetectable after 1 week. In stagnant water with feeding, V. cholerae counts dropped to 105 cfu/ml in water and from 107 to 104 cfu/intestine in fish after 14 days. When water was renewed, counts in water decreased from 107 to 103 cfu/ml and intestinal counts went from 106 to 102 cfu/intestine regardless of feeding. All strains were transmitted from infected to naïve fish after 24 h of cohabitation. Tilapia like other fish may play an essential role in the survival and dissemination of V. cholerae O1 in aquatic environments, e.g., the seventh pandemic strains mostly. In this study, tilapia were exposed to high concentrations of V. cholerae to ensure initial uptake and follow-up studies with lower doses resembling natural concentrations of V. cholerae in the aquatic environment are needed to confirm our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction: Cholera remains a significant public health threat for many countries, and the severity largely varies by the population and local conditions that drive disease spread, especially in endemic areas prone to natural disasters and flooding. Epidemiological models can provide useful information to military planners for understanding disease spread within populations and the effectiveness of response options for preventing the transmission among deployed and stationed personnel. This study demonstrates the use of epidemiological modeling to understand the dynamics of cholera transmission to inform emergency planning and military preparedness in areas with highly communicable diseases., Materials and Methods: Areas with higher probability for a potential cholera outbreak in Haiti followed by a natural disaster were identified. The hotspots were then used to seed an extended compartmental model, EpiGrid, to simulate notional spread scenarios of cholera originating in three distinct areas in Haiti. Disease parameters were derived from the 2010 cholera outbreak in Haiti, and disease spread was simulated over a 12-week period under uncontrolled and controlled spread., Results: For each model location, scenarios of mitigated (intervention with 30% transmission reduction via international aid) and unmitigated (without intervention) are simulated. The results depict the geographical spread and estimate the cumulative cholera infection for each notional scenario over the course of 3 months. Disease transmission differs considerably across origin site with an outbreak originating in the department of Nippes spanning the largest geographic area and resulting in the largest number of cumulative cases after 12 weeks under unmitigated (79,518 cases) and mitigated (35,667 cases) spread scenarios., Conclusions: We modeled the notional re-emergence and spread of cholera following the August 2021 earthquake in Haiti while in the midst of the global COVID-19 pandemic. This information can help guide military and emergency response decision-making during an infectious disease outbreak and considerations for protecting military personnel in the midst of a humanitarian response. Military planners should consider the use of epidemiological models to assess the health risk posed to deployed and stationed personnel in high-risk areas., (Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the Association of Military Surgeons of the United States 2022. This work is written by (a) US Government employee(s) and is in the public domain in the US.)

The human pathogen Vibrio cholerae exhibits two distinct lifestyles: one in the aquatic environment where it often associates with chitinous surfaces and the other as the causative agent of the disease cholera. While much of the research on V. cholerae has focused on the host-pathogen interaction, knowledge about the environmental lifestyle of the pathogen remains limited. We recently showed that the polymer chitin, which is extremely abundant in aquatic environments, induces natural competence as a mode of horizontal gene transfer and that this competence regulon also includes the type VI secretion system (T6SS), a molecular killing device. Here, I discuss the putative consequences that chitin-induced T6SS activation could have on intestinal colonization and how the transmission route might influence disease outcome. Moreover, I propose that common infant animal models for cholera might not sufficiently take into account T6SS-mediated interbacterial warfare between V. cholerae and the intestinal microbiota. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Objectives: Cholera has a long history in India and Bangladesh, the region where six out of the past seven global pandemics have been seeded. The changing climate and growing population have led to global cholera cases remaining high despite a consistent improvement in the access to clean water and sanitation. We aim to provide a holistic overview of variables influencing environmental cholera transmission within the context of India and Bangladesh, with a focus on the mechanisms by which they act., Content: We identified 56 relevant texts (Bangladesh n = 40, India n = 7, Other n = 5). The results of the review found that cholera transmission is associated with several socio-economic and environmental factors, each associated variable is suggested to have at least one mediating mechanism. Increases in ambient temperature and coastal sea surface temperature support cholera transmission via increases in plankton and a preference of Vibrio cholerae for warmer waters. Increased rainfall can potentially support or reduce transmission via several mechanisms., Summary and Outlook: Common issues in the literature are co-variance of seasonal factors, limited access to high quality cholera data, high research bias towards research in Dhaka and Matlab (Bangladesh). A specific and detailed understanding of the relationship between SST and cholera incidence remains unclear., (© 2023 the author(s), published by De Gruyter, Berlin/Boston.)

Abstract: Infectious diseases often cluster spatially, but can also cluster socially because they are transmitted within social networks. This study compares spatial and social clustering of cholera in rural Bangladesh. Data include a spatially referenced longitudinal demographic database, which consists of approximately 200,000 people and laboratory-confirmed cholera cases from 1983 to 2003. Matrices are created of kinship ties between households using a complete network design and distance matrices are also created to model spatial relationships. Moran''s I statistics are calculated to measure clustering within both social and spatial matrices. The results show that cholera always clusters in space and seldom within social networks. Cholera is transmitted mostly through the local environment rather than through person-to-person contact. Comparing spatial and social network analysis can help improve understanding of disease transmission. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]

Bullfrog is one of the most important economic aquatic animals in China that is widely cultured in southern China and is a key breed recommended as an industry of poverty alleviation in China. During recent years, a fatal bacterial disease has often been found in cultured bullfrogs. The clinical manifestations of the diseased bullfrogs were severe intestinal inflammation and an anal prolapse. A bacterial pathogen was isolated from the diseased bullfrog intestines. The bacterium was identified as Vibrio cholerae using morphological, biochemical and 16S rRNA phylogenetic analysis. In this study, V. cholerae was isolated and identified in diseased bullfrogs for the first time, providing a basis for the diagnosis and control of the disease. Therefore, attention should be paid to the modes of transmission of V. cholerae from bullfrog and formulate reasonable safety measures.

Cholera is endemic along the Great Lakes Region, in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). From these endemic areas, also under perpetual conflicts, outbreaks spread to other areas. However, the main routes of propagation remain unclear. This research aimed to explore the modalities and likely main routes of geographic spread of cholera from endemic areas in eastern DRC. We used historical reconstruction of major outbreak expansions of cholera since its introduction in eastern DRC, maps of distribution and spatiotemporal cluster detection analyses of cholera data from passive surveillance (2000-2017) to describe the spread dynamics of cholera from eastern DRC. Four modalities of geographic spread and their likely main routes from the source areas of epidemics to other areas were identified: in endemic eastern provinces, and in non-endemic provinces of eastern, central and western DRC. Using non-parametric statistics, we found that the higher the number of conflict events reported in eastern DRC, the greater the geographic spread of cholera across the country. The present study revealed that the dynamics of the spread of cholera follow a fairly well-defined spatial logic and can therefore be predicted., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Cholera outbreaks currently account for 1.3 to 4.0 million cases and cause between 21 000 and 143 000 deaths worldwide. Cholera is preventable by proper sanitization and immunization; however, in many developing nations such as India, cholera disease is endemic. The surveillance system in India does not adequately capture the actual number of cases. As a result, it is important to utilize limited public health resources correctly in India and other developing counties more effectively to reach vulnerable communities. In this study, we analyze how studies make sense of cholera transmission and spread in India from 1996 to 2015. Furthermore, we analyze how a more sensitive surveillance system can contribute to cholera eradication by giving rise to outbreak preparedness., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Mathematical modeling can be used to project the impact of mass vaccination on cholera transmission. Here, we discuss 2 examples for which indirect protection from mass vaccination needs to be considered. In the first, we show that nonvaccinees can be protected by mass vaccination campaigns. This additional benefit of indirect protection improves the cost-effectiveness of mass vaccination. In the second, we model the use of mass vaccination to eliminate cholera. In this case, a high population level of immunity, including contributions from infection and vaccination, is required to reach the "herd immunity" threshold needed to stop transmission and achieve elimination., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press for the Infectious Diseases Society of America.)

Background: Cholera is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in low-resource and humanitarian settings. It is transmitted by fecal-oral route, and the infection risk is higher to those living in and near cholera cases. Rapid identification of cholera cases and implementation of measures to prevent subsequent transmission around cases may be an efficient strategy to reduce the size and scale of cholera outbreaks., Methodology/principle Findings: We investigated implementation of cholera case-area targeted interventions (CATIs) using systematic reviews and case studies. We identified 11 peer-reviewed and eight grey literature articles documenting CATIs and completed 30 key informant interviews in case studies in Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Yemen, and Zimbabwe. We documented 15 outbreaks in 12 countries where CATIs were used. The team composition and the interventions varied, with water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions implemented more commonly than those of health. Alert systems triggering interventions were diverse ranging from suspected cholera cases to culture confirmed cases. Selection of high-risk households around the case household was inconsistent and ranged from only one case to approximately 100 surrounding households with different methods of selecting them. Coordination among actors and integration between sectors were consistently reported as challenging. Delays in sharing case information impeded rapid implementation of this approach, while evaluation of the effectiveness of interventions varied., Conclusions/significance: CATIs appear effective in reducing cholera outbreaks, but there is limited and context specific evidence of their effectiveness in reducing the incidence of cholera cases and lack of guidance for their consistent implementation. We propose to 1) use uniform cholera case definitions considering a local capacity to trigger alert; 2) evaluate the effectiveness of individual or sets of interventions to interrupt cholera, and establish a set of evidence-based interventions; 3) establish criteria to select high-risk households; and 4) improve coordination and data sharing amongst actors and facilitate integration among sectors to strengthen CATI approaches in cholera outbreaks., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Vibrio cholerae O1 is the aetiological agent of the severe diarrhoeal disease cholera. Annually, there are an estimated 1-4 million cholera cases worldwide and over 140 000 deaths. The primary mode of disease transmission is through the consumption of water or food contaminated with the bacterium. Although cholera patients can be treated effectively using rehydration therapy, the disease remains a major scourge in areas with limited access to clean water and proper sanitation. Its continued prevalence highlights the failure of socioeconomic policies leading to wealth disparities, fragile and dated public infrastructure, and lack of appropriate health surveillance.

In this paper, a cholera infection model with vaccination is investigated, in which hyperinfectious and hypoinfectious vibrios, both human-to-human and environment-to-human transmission pathways, and waning vaccine-induced immunity are considered. The basic reproduction number is calculated and verified to be a threshold determining the global dynamics of the model. In addition, an application is demonstrated by investigating the cholera outbreak in Somalia, and the relevant control measures in the short term are given by elasticity and sensitivity analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There are two common household disinfection interventions to prevent interhousehold transmission of cholera: household spraying, whereby a team disinfects cholera patients' households, and household disinfection kits (HDKs), whereby cleaning materials are provided to cholera patients' family members. Currently, both interventions lack evidence, and international agencies recommend HDK distribution; however, household spraying remains widely implemented. To understand this disconnect, we conducted 14 key informant interviews with international and national responders and a study in Haiti assessing HDK efficacy using two training modules including 20 household surveys and 327 surfaces samples before and after cleaning. During interviews, 80% of the international-level informants discussed evidence gaps for both interventions, and 60% preferred HDKs. Conversely, no national-level informants knew what an HDK was; therefore, they all preferred spraying. Informants discussed behavior changes, bleach perceptions, and implementation as facilitators and/or barriers to implementing both interventions. In households, training with demonstrations regarding the use of HDK led to increased reductions of Escherichia coli (P < 0.001) and Vibrio spp. (P < 0.001) on surfaces after participants cleaned the household compared with a hygiene promotion session only. These results emphasize the gap between the current international-level policy and the realities of cholera response programs, highlight the need for evidence to align household disinfection recommendations, and underscore the importance of the dissemination and training of responders and affected populations regarding methods to prevent intrahousehold cholera transmission.

Background: Despite recent insights into cholera transmission patterns in Africa, regional and local dynamics in West Africa-where cholera outbreaks occur every few years-are still poorly understood. Coordinated genomic surveillance of Vibrio cholerae in the areas most affected may reveal transmission patterns important for cholera control., Methods: During a regional sequencing workshop in Nigeria, we sequenced 46 recent V. cholerae isolates from Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria (37 from 2018 to 2019) to better understand the relationship between the V. cholerae bacterium circulating in these three countries., Results: From these isolates, we generated 44 whole Vibrio cholerae O1 sequences and analyzed them in the context of 1280 published V. cholerae O1 genomes. All sequences belonged to the T12 V. cholerae seventh pandemic lineage., Conclusions: Phylogenetic analysis of newly generated and previously published V. cholerae genomes suggested that the T12 lineage has been continuously transmitted within West Africa since it was first observed in the region in 2009, despite lack of reported cholera in the intervening years. The results from this regional sequencing effort provide a model for future regionally coordinated surveillance efforts., Funding: Funding for this project was provided by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1195157., Competing Interests: EE, ST, BA, BI, IA, CC, ID, SM, SO, MP, AN, YB, FL, AA, DN, AA, JL, SW No competing interests declared, (© 2021, Ekeng et al.)

Background: Cholera has been present and recurring in Zambia since 1977. However, there is a paucity of data on genetic relatedness and diversity of the Vibrio cholerae isolates responsible for these outbreaks. Understanding whether the outbreaks are seeded from existing local isolates or if the outbreaks represent separate transmission events can inform public health decisions., Results: Seventy-two V. cholerae isolates from outbreaks in 2009/2010, 2016, and 2017/2018 in Zambia were characterized using multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) and whole genome sequencing (WGS). The isolates had eight distinct MLVA genotypes that clustered into three MLVA clonal complexes (CCs). Each CC contained isolates from only one outbreak. The results from WGS revealed both clustered and dispersed single nucleotide variants. The genetic relatedness of isolates based on WGS was consistent with the MLVA, each CC was a distinct genetic lineage and had nearest neighbors from other East African countries. In Lusaka, isolates from the same outbreak were more closely related to themselves and isolates from other countries than to isolates from other outbreaks in other years., Conclusions: Our observations are consistent with i) the presence of random mutation and alternative mechanisms of nucleotide variation, and ii) three separate transmission events of V. cholerae into Lusaka, Zambia. We suggest that locally, case-area targeted invention strategies and regionally, well-coordinated plans be in place to effectively control future cholera outbreaks.

Globally, cholera epidemics continue to challenge disease control. Although mass campaigns covering large populations are commonly used to control cholera, spatial targeting of case households and their radius is emerging as a potentially efficient strategy. We did a Scoping Review to investigate the effectiveness of interventions delivered through case-area targeted intervention, its optimal spatiotemporal scale, and its effectiveness in reducing transmission. 53 articles were retrieved. We found that antibiotic chemoprophylaxis, point-of-use water treatment, and hygiene promotion can rapidly reduce household transmission, and single-dose vaccination can extend the duration of protection within the radius of households. Evidence supports a high-risk spatiotemporal zone of 100 m around case households, for 7 days. Two evaluations separately showed reductions in household transmission when targeting case households, and in size and duration of case clusters when targeting radii. Although case-area targeted intervention shows promise for outbreak control, it is critically dependent on early detection capacity and requires prospective evaluation of intervention packages., (Copyright © 2021 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.)

We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate Gaussian mixture model. Focusing on the study of cholera and diseases with similar modes of transmission, we calibrate the parameters of our mixture model using human mobility networks within a stochastic, spatially explicit epidemiological model for waterborne disease. Furthermore, we adopt a Bayesian perspective, so that prior information on source location can be incorporated (e.g., reflecting the impact of local conditions). Posterior-based inference is performed, which permits estimates in the form of either individual locations or regions. Importantly, our estimator only requires first-arrival times of the epidemic by putative observers, typically located only at a small proportion of nodes. The proposed method is demonstrated within the context of the 2000-2002 cholera outbreak in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Waterborne diseases are present major health problems to humanity especially in rural communities where many individuals belong to the lower socioeconomic classes (SECs). The impacts of introducing waterborne disease control measures for such communities are investigated by considering a waterborne disease model. The model is extended by introducing treatment of infected individuals and water purification as control measures. The possible benefits of considering these control measures for the various SECs are investigated. Further analyses show how different degrees of control impact the rate at which waterborne diseases are spread across SECs. The disease control model is validated by using it to study the cholera outbreak in Haiti.

Background: On 23 February 2018, the Uganda Ministry of Health (MOH) declared a cholera outbreak affecting more than 60 persons in Kyangwali Refugee Settlement, Hoima District, bordering the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). We investigated to determine the outbreak scope and risk factors for transmission, and recommend evidence-based control measures., Methods: We defined a suspected case as sudden onset of watery diarrhoea in any person aged ≥ 2 years in Hoima District, 1 February-9 May 2018. A confirmed case was a suspected case with Vibrio cholerae cultured from a stool sample. We found cases by active community search and record reviews at Cholera Treatment Centres. We calculated case-fatality rates (CFR) and attack rates (AR) by sub-county and nationality. In a case-control study, we compared exposure factors among case- and control-households. We estimated the association between the exposures and outcome using Mantel-Haenszel method. We conducted an environmental assessment in the refugee settlement, including testing samples of stream water, tank water, and spring water for presence of fecal coliforms. We tested suspected cholera cases using cholera rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits followed by culture for confirmation., Results: We identified 2122 case-patients and 44 deaths (CFR = 2.1%). Case-patients originating from Demographic Republic of Congo were the most affected (AR = 15/1000). The overall attack rate in Hoima District was 3.2/1000, with Kyangwali sub-county being the most affected (AR = 13/1000). The outbreak lasted 4 months, which was a multiple point-source. Environmental assessment showed that a stream separating two villages in Kyangwali Refugee Settlement was a site of open defecation for refugees. Among three water sources tested, only stream water was feacally-contaminated, yielding > 100 CFU/100 ml. Of 130 stool samples tested, 124 (95%) yielded V. cholerae by culture. Stream water was most strongly associated with illness (odds ratio [OR] = 14.2, 95% CI: 1.5-133), although tank water also appeared to be independently associated with illness (OR = 11.6, 95% CI: 1.4-94). Persons who drank tank and stream water had a 17-fold higher odds of illness compared with persons who drank from other sources (OR = 17.3, 95% CI: 2.2-137)., Conclusions: Our investigation demonstrated that this was a prolonged cholera outbreak that affected four sub-counties and two divisions in Hoima District, and was associated with drinking of contaminated stream water. In addition, tank water also appears to be unsafe. We recommended boiling drinking water, increasing latrine coverage, and provision of safe water by the District and entire High Commission for refugees.

It is often impossible to measure all states affecting spread of a disease. In cholera, asymptomatic and cholera pathogen densities are not practically measurable despite playing a big role in its transmission. They are referred to as inaccessible states of the model and can only be manipulated using the measurable states of the given model. Our interest lies in estimating such states and the parameters catalyzing the spread. A mathematical model for cholera dynamics consisting of five compartments (susceptible, symptomatic, asymptomatic, recovered and bacteria population) with a minimum infection dose (MID) is considered. A method based on observer (from modern control theory) is proposed to estimate the state variables not accessible to measurement and the time-dependent parameters from real data of Senegal. We suppose that the total population of Senegal, the monthly reported cholera-induced deaths and the monthly recovered individuals are known inputs obtainable from real data, and the monthly new cholera cases the system output. An auxiliary system is used, an observer whose solutions converge exponentially to those of an original system and solely utilize known inputs and output of the model. Thus, the estimation of the unmeasured state variables like the pathogen density and the yearly asymptomatic population within the human community playing an important role in the spread of cholera is possible. We derive the expressions for time-dependent infection rate, induced cholera death rate and symptomatic recovery rate and their estimations done using real data. Numerical simulations are then performed for the validation of estimation results. The system together with the observer designed is detectable but is not observable. The observer delivered estimates reflect a close trend already ascertained by other researchers. They indicate the existence of bacteria and asymptomatic individuals in the population of Senegal at any single time for the duration of collection of the data. The ever existence of cholera pathogen explains the endemicity of Cholera in Senegal and other sub-Saharan-African countries owing to role played by the asymptomatic individual in the bacteria density. As such, the heath authorities in Senegal need to educate the general public on hygiene irrespective of observable symptoms to lower the possible number of new infections. We have analytically showed and numerically confirmed the exponential convergence to zero of the estimation errors resulting from the observer model hence the high quality of the estimates.

Background: The 2018 cholera outbreak in Nigeria affected over half of the states in the country, and was characterised by high attack and case fatality rates. The country continues to record cholera cases and related deaths to date. However, there is a dearth of evidence on context-specific drivers and their operational mechanisms in mediating recurrent cholera transmission in Nigeria. This study therefore aimed to fill this important research gap, with a view to informing the design and implementation of appropriate preventive and control measures., Methods: Four bibliographic literature sources (CINAHL (Plus with full text), Web of Science, Google Scholar and PubMed), and one journal (African Journals Online) were searched to retrieve documents relating to cholera transmission in Nigeria. Titles and abstracts of the identified documents were screened according to a predefined study protocol. Data extraction and bibliometric analysis of all eligible documents were conducted, which was followed by thematic and systematic analyses., Results: Forty-five documents met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final analysis. The majority of the documents were peer-reviewed journal articles (89%) and conducted predominantly in the context of cholera epidemics (64%). The narrative analysis indicates that social, biological, environmental and climatic, health systems, and a combination of two or more factors appear to drive cholera transmission in Nigeria. Regarding operational dynamics, a substantial number of the identified drivers appear to be functionally interdependent of each other., Conclusion: The drivers of recurring cholera transmission in Nigeria are diverse but functionally interdependent; thus, underlining the importance of adopting a multi-sectoral approach for cholera prevention and control.

Cholera is a severe diarrhoeal disease affecting vulnerable communities. A long-term solution to cholera transmission is improved access to and uptake of water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH). Climate change threatens WASH. A systematic review and meta-analysis determined five overarching WASH factors incorporating 17 specific WASH factors associated with cholera transmission, focussing upon community cases. Eight WASH factors showed lower odds and six showed higher odds for cholera transmission. These results were combined with findings in the climate change and WASH literature, to propose a health impact pathway illustrating potential routes through which climate change dynamics (e.g. drought, flooding) impact on WASH and cholera transmission. A causal process diagram visualising links between climate change dynamics, WASH factors, and cholera transmission was developed. Climate change dynamics can potentially affect multiple WASH factors (e.g. drought-induced reductions in handwashing and rainwater use). Multiple climate change dynamics can influence WASH factors (e.g. flooding and sea-level rise affect piped water usage). The influence of climate change dynamics on WASH factors can be negative or positive for cholera transmission (e.g. drought could increase pathogen desiccation but reduce rainwater harvesting). Identifying risk pathways helps policymakers focus on cholera risk mitigation, now and in the future.

While several basic properties of cholera outbreaks are common to most settings-the pathophysiology of the disease, the waterborne nature of transmission, and others-recent findings suggest that transmission within households may play a larger role in cholera outbreaks than previously appreciated. Important features of cholera outbreaks have long been effectively modeled with mathematical and computational approaches, but little is known about how variation in direct transmission via households may influence epidemic dynamics. In this study, we construct a mathematical model of cholera that incorporates transmission within and between households. We observe that variation in the magnitude of household transmission changes multiple features of disease dynamics, including the severity and duration of outbreaks. Strikingly, we observe that household transmission influences the effectiveness of possible public health interventions (e.g. water treatment, antibiotics, vaccines). We find that vaccine interventions are more effective than water treatment or antibiotic administration when direct household transmission is present. Summarizing, we position these results within the landscape of existing models of cholera, and speculate on its implications for epidemiology and public health., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction: Cholera remains a frequent cause of outbreaks globally, particularly in areas with inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services. Cholera is spread through faecal-oral routes, and studies demonstrate that ingestion of Vibrio cholerae occurs from consuming contaminated food and water, contact with cholera cases and transmission from contaminated environmental point sources. WASH guidelines recommending interventions for the prevention and control of cholera are numerous and vary considerably in their recommendations. To date, there has been no review of practice guidelines used in cholera prevention and control programmes., Methods: We systematically searched international agency websites to identify WASH intervention guidelines used in cholera programmes in endemic and epidemic settings. Recommendations listed in the guidelines were extracted, categorised and analysed. Analysis was based on consistency, concordance and recommendations were classified on the basis of whether the interventions targeted within-household or community-level transmission., Results: Eight international guidelines were included in this review: three by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), one from a non-profit organisation (NPO), three from multilateral organisations and one from a research institution. There were 95 distinct recommendations identified, and concordance among guidelines was poor to fair. All categories of WASH interventions were featured in the guidelines. The majority of recommendations targeted community-level transmission (45%), 35% targeted within-household transmission and 20% both., Conclusions: Recent evidence suggests that interventions for effective cholera control and response to epidemics should focus on case-centred approaches and within-household transmission. Guidelines did consistently propose interventions targeting transmission within households. However, the majority of recommendations listed in guidelines targeted community-level transmission and tended to be more focused on preventing contamination of the environment by cases or recurrent outbreaks, and the level of service required to interrupt community-level transmission was often not specified. The guidelines in current use were varied and interpretation may be difficult when conflicting recommendations are provided. Future editions of guidelines should reflect on the inclusion of evidence-based approaches, cholera transmission models and resource-efficient strategies., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. The authors alone are responsible for their views expressed in this article and they do not represent the views, decisions or policies of the institutions with which they are associated. Authors from MSF (RVDB, DT, PM), UNICEF (GB) and WHO (DL) contributed independently in their own rights of individuals.

In developing countries, several diseases spread in human population due to the abundance of houseflies (a kind of carrier). The main reason behind the spread of these diseases is the lack of awareness among peoples regarding the sanitation practices and economic constraints. To understand the dynamics of the spread and control of these diseases, in this paper, we propose a mathematical model by considering logistic growth of houseflies. In the model formulation, it is assumed that houseflies transport the bacteria responsible for the disease transmission from the environment to the edibles of human population. To reduce the density of houseflies and number of infected individuals, an optimization problem is also formulated and analyzed. Numerical simulations are performed to support analytically obtained results., (Copyright © 2019 Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Exposure to cholera is a risk for individuals and groups travelling to endemic areas, and the bacteria can be imported to cholera-free countries by returning travellers. This systematic review of the literature describes the circumstances in which cholera infection can occur in travellers and considers the possible value of the cholera vaccine for prevention in travellers. PubMed and EMBASE were searched for case reports of cholera or diarrhoea among travellers, with date limits of 1 January 1990-30 April 2018. Search results were screened to exclude the following articles: diarrhoea not caused by cholera, cholera in animals, intentional cholera infection in humans, non-English articles and publications on epidemics that did not report clinical details of individual cases and publications of cases pre-dating 1990. Articles were reviewed through descriptive analytic methods and information summarized. We identified 156 cases of cholera imported as a consequence of travel, and these were reviewed for type of traveller, source country, serogroup of cholera, treatment and outcomes. The case reports retrieved in the search did not report consistent levels of detail, making it difficult to synthesize data across reports and draw firm conclusions from the data. This clinical review sheds light on the paucity of actionable published data regarding the risk of cholera in travellers and identifies a number of gaps that should drive additional effort. Further information is needed to better inform evidence-based disease prevention strategies, including vaccination for travellers visiting areas of cholera risk. Modifications to current vaccination recommendations to include or exclude current or additional traveller populations may be considered as additional risk data become available. The protocol for this systematic review is registered with PROSPERO (registration number: 122797)., (© International Society of Travel Medicine 2019. All rights reserved. For Permissions, please e-mail: journals.permissions@oup.com.)

Background: Cholera is a major public health concern in displaced-person camps, which often contend with overcrowding and scarcity of resources. Maela, the largest and longest-standing refugee camp in Thailand, located along the Thai-Burmese border, experienced four cholera outbreaks between 2005 and 2010. In 2013, a cholera vaccine campaign was implemented in the camp. To assist in the evaluation of the campaign and planning for subsequent campaigns, we developed a mathematical model of cholera in Maela., Methods: We formulated a Susceptible-Infectious-Water-Recovered-based transmission model and estimated parameters using incidence data from 2010. We next evaluated the reduction in cases conferred by several immunization strategies, varying timing, effectiveness, and resources (i.e., vaccine availability). After the vaccine campaign, we generated case forecasts for the next year, to inform on-the-ground decision-making regarding whether a booster campaign was needed., Results: We found that preexposure vaccination can substantially reduce the risk of cholera even when <50% of the population is given the full two-dose series. Additionally, the preferred number of doses per person should be considered in the context of one vs. two dose effectiveness and vaccine availability. For reactive vaccination, a trade-off between timing and effectiveness was revealed, indicating that it may be beneficial to give one dose to more people rather than two doses to fewer people, given that a two-dose schedule would incur a delay in administration of the second dose. Forecasting using realistic coverage levels predicted that there was no need for a booster campaign in 2014 (consistent with our predictions, there was not a cholera epidemic in 2014)., Conclusions: Our analyses suggest that vaccination in conjunction with ongoing water sanitation and hygiene efforts provides an effective strategy for controlling cholera outbreaks in refugee camps. Effective preexposure vaccination depends on timing and effectiveness. If a camp is facing an outbreak, delayed distribution of vaccines can substantially alter the effectiveness of reactive vaccination, suggesting that quick distribution of vaccines may be more important than ensuring every individual receives both vaccine doses. Overall, this analysis illustrates how mathematical models can be applied in public health practice, to assist in evaluating alternative intervention strategies and inform decision-making.

Vibrio cholerae interacts with many organisms in the environment, including heterotrophic protists (protozoa). Several species of protozoa have been reported to release undigested bacteria in expelled food vacuoles (EFVs) when feeding on some pathogens. While the production of EFVs has been reported, their biological role as a vector for the transmission of pathogens remains unknown. Here we report that ciliated protozoa release EFVs containing V. cholerae. The EFVs are stable, the cells inside them are protected from multiple stresses, and large numbers of cells escape when incubated at 37 °C or in the presence of nutrients. We show that OmpU, a major outer membrane protein positively regulated by ToxR, has a role in the production of EFVs. Notably, cells released from EFVs have growth and colonization advantages over planktonic cells both in vitro and in vivo. Our results suggest that EFVs facilitate V. cholerae survival in the environment, enhancing their infectious potential and may contribute to the dissemination of epidemic V. cholerae strains. These results improve our understanding of the mechanisms of persistence and the modes of transmission of V. cholerae and may further apply to other opportunistic pathogens that have been shown to be released by protists in EFVs.

In this paper, an age-structured cholera model with multiple transmissions, saturation incidence and imperfect vaccination is proposed. In the model, we consider both the infection age of infected individuals and the biological age of Vibrio cholerae in the aquatic environment. Asymptotic smoothness is verified as a necessary argument. By analysing the characteristic equations, the local stability of disease-free and endemic steady states is established. By using Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, it is proved that the global dynamics of the model can be completely determined by basic reproduction number. The study of optimal control helps us seek cost-effective solutions of time-dependent vaccination strategy against cholera outbreaks. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the corresponding theoretical results.

We focus on discrete-time infectious disease models in populations that are governed by constant, geometric, Beverton-Holt or Ricker demographic equations, and give a method for computing the basic reproduction number, [Formula: see text]. When [Formula: see text] and the demographic population dynamics are asymptotically constant or under geometric growth (non-oscillatory), we prove global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium of the disease models. Under the same demographic assumption, when [Formula: see text], we prove uniform persistence of the disease. We apply our theoretical results to specific discrete-time epidemic models that are formulated for SEIR infections, cholera in humans and anthrax in animals. Our simulations show that a unique endemic equilibrium of each of the three specific disease models is asymptotically stable whenever [Formula: see text].

Objective: Uncertainty persists regarding cholera transmission routes. We conducted a structured review of case-control studies on cholera transmission and provide a qualitative summary of reported exposures in order to inform public health efforts and future cholera research., Methods: We searched two electronic databases for published case-control studies that investigated risk factors for cholera and included any publications that did not match our exclusion criteria. From the included studies, we grouped exposures using two parameters, whether transmission domain was public or domestic, and also on the vehicle of transmission. We extracted data on study location, method of case and control inclusion, type of statistical analysis performed and which exposures were included. Additionally, two parallel subgroup analyses were performed. The first included the subgroup of all studies that used culture-confirmed cholera cases, and the second included the subgroup of all studies employing a multivariate analysis. In the second analysis, we calculated the population attributable risk (PAR)., Results: Our search yielded 2347 peer-reviewed publications, of which 65 did not match our exclusion criteria, comprising 69 individual studies. Water-based exposures were investigated in 97% of these studies, of which 70% found a significant association with cholera infection. Food-based exposures were investigated in 75% of studies, of which 63% found a significant association with risk of cholera infection. Close personal contact with cholera cases was investigated in 30% of studies, of which 52% found a significant association with risk of cholera infection. Hygiene-related exposures were investigated in 51% of studies, of which 63% found a significant association with cholera transmission. Among studies that examined at least one exposure related to the domestic domain, 76% found a significant association with cholera infection vs. 71% of studies investigating at least one public domain exposure. The subgroup analyses produced similar results., Conclusions: Despite strong evidence for cholera transmission via foodborne-, hygiene-, waterborne- and close personal contact-related pathways in both domestic and public domains, we found that non-waterborne-related factors are understudied. Future cholera case-control studies would benefit from investigating all transmission vehicles and transmission domains., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

In 2017-18, a large-scale cholera outbreak swept Yemen. We calculated the number of culture-confirmed cases from the suspected cases and diagnosis testing records. We estimate 184,248 confirmed cholera cases between April 2017 and the end of 2017, and the reproduction number of 2.2 with 95% CI of [2.1, 2.3] during the initial stage. We find a significantly (nonlinear) positive association between the reproduction number ( R t ) and precipitation, explained 13% of transmissibility changes, with one unit (mm) increment in precipitation leading to an increment of 20.1% in R t . We find a significantly (nonlinear) negative association between the R t and cumulative Google Trends index (GTI), explained 62% of transmissibility changes, with one unit increment in cumulative GTI leading to a drop of 0.03% in R t .

Background: In April 2016, an emergency vaccination campaign using one dose of Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) was organized in response to a cholera outbreak that started in Lusaka in February 2016. In December 2016, a second round of vaccination was conducted, with the objective of increasing the duration of protection, before the high-risk period for cholera transmission. We assessed vaccination coverage for the first and second rounds of the OCV campaign., Methods: Vaccination coverage was estimated after each round from a sample selected from targeted-areas for vaccination using a cross-sectional survey in to establish the vaccination status of the individuals recruited. The study population included all individuals older than 12 months residing in the areas targeted for vaccination. We interviewed 505 randomly selected individuals after the first round and 442 after the second round. Vaccination status was ascertained either by vaccination card or verbal reporting. Households were selected using spatial random sampling., Results: The vaccination coverage with two doses was 58.1% (25/43; 95%CI: 42.1-72.9) in children 1-5 years old, 59.5% (69/116; 95%CI: 49.9-68.5) in children 5-15 years old and 19.9% (56/281; 95%CI: 15.4-25.1) in adults above 15 years old. The overall dropout rate was 10.9% (95%CI: 8.1-14.1). Overall, 69.9% (n = 309/442; 95%CI: 65.4-74.1) reported to have received at least one OCV dose., Conclusions: The areas at highest risk of suffering cholera outbreaks were targeted for vaccination obtaining relatively high vaccine coverage after each round. However, the long delay between doses in areas subject to considerable population movement resulted in many individuals receiving only one OCV dose. Additional vaccination campaigns may be required to sustain protection over time in case of persistence of risk. Further evidence is needed to establish a maximum optimal interval time of a delayed second dose and variations in different settings., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Vibrio cholerae is the causative agent of cholera, a life-threatening diarrheal disease. Cholera causes epidemics and pandemics, but the ways this disease spreads worldwide is still unclear. This review highlights a relatively new hypothesis regarding the way V. cholerae can be globally dispersed. Copepods and chironomids are natural reservoirs of V. cholerae and are part of different fish species' diet. Furthermore, V. cholerae inhabits marine and freshwater fish species. Waterbird species feed on fish or on small invertebrates such as copepods and chironomids. Waterbirds have also been found to carry living copepods and/or chironomids internally or externally from one waterbody to another. All of the above points to the fact that some waterbird species might be vectors of V. cholerae. Indeed, we and others have found evidence for the presence of V. cholerae non-O1 as well as O1 in waterbird cloacal swabs, feces, and intestine samples. Moreover, hand-reared cormorants that were fed on tilapia, a fish that naturally carries V. cholerae, became infected with this bacterial species, demonstrating that V. cholerae can be transferred to cormorants from their fish prey. Great cormorants as well as other waterbird species can cover distances of up to 1,000 km/day and thus may potentially transfer V. cholerae in a short time across and between continents. We hope this review will inspire further studies regarding the understanding of the waterbirds' role in the global dissemination of V. cholerae., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objectives: We study the transmission dynamics of cholera in the presence of limited resources, a common feature of the developing world. The model is used to gain insight into the impact of available resources of the health care system on the spread and control of the disease. A deterministic model that includes a nonlinear recovery rate is formulated and rigorously analyzed. Limited treatment is described by inclusion of a special treatment function. Center manifold theory is used to show that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. Matlab has been used to carry out numerical simulations to support theoretical findings., Results: The model analysis shows that the disease free steady state is locally stable when the threshold [Formula: see text]. It is also shown that the model has multiple equilibria and the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation whose implications to cholera infection are discussed. The results are useful for the public health planning in resource allocation for the control of cholera transmission.

Cholera epidemic remains a public threat throughout history, affecting vulnerable population living with unreliable water and substandard sanitary conditions. Various studies have observed that the occurrence of cholera has strong linkage with environmental factors such as climate change and geographical location. Climate change has been strongly linked to the seasonal occurrence and widespread of cholera through the creation of weather patterns that favor the disease's transmission, infection, and the growth of Vibrio cholerae , which cause the disease. Over the past decades, there have been great achievements in developing epidemic models for the proper prediction of cholera. However, the integration of weather variables and use of machine learning techniques have not been explicitly deployed in modeling cholera epidemics in Tanzania due to the challenges that come with its datasets such as imbalanced data and missing information. This paper explores the use of machine learning techniques to model cholera epidemics with linkage to seasonal weather changes while overcoming the data imbalance problem. Adaptive Synthetic Sampling Approach (ADASYN) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used to the restore sampling balance and dimensional of the dataset. In addition, sensitivity, specificity, and balanced-accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the performance of the seven models. Based on the results of the Wilcoxon sign-rank test and features of the models, XGBoost classifier was selected to be the best model for the study. Overall results improved our understanding of the significant roles of machine learning strategies in health-care data. However, the study could not be treated as a time series problem due to the data collection bias. The study recommends a review of health-care systems in order to facilitate quality data collection and deployment of machine learning techniques., Competing Interests: The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.