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Sensor-based localization of epidemic sources on human mobility networks.
- Source :
-
PLoS computational biology [PLoS Comput Biol] 2021 Jan 27; Vol. 17 (1), pp. e1008545. Date of Electronic Publication: 2021 Jan 27 (Print Publication: 2021). - Publication Year :
- 2021
-
Abstract
- We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate Gaussian mixture model. Focusing on the study of cholera and diseases with similar modes of transmission, we calibrate the parameters of our mixture model using human mobility networks within a stochastic, spatially explicit epidemiological model for waterborne disease. Furthermore, we adopt a Bayesian perspective, so that prior information on source location can be incorporated (e.g., reflecting the impact of local conditions). Posterior-based inference is performed, which permits estimates in the form of either individual locations or regions. Importantly, our estimator only requires first-arrival times of the epidemic by putative observers, typically located only at a small proportion of nodes. The proposed method is demonstrated within the context of the 2000-2002 cholera outbreak in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa.<br />Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.
- Subjects :
- Bayes Theorem
Cholera epidemiology
Cholera prevention & control
Cholera transmission
Computational Biology
Contact Tracing
Disease Outbreaks prevention & control
Disease Outbreaks statistics & numerical data
Humans
Population Dynamics
South Africa
Travel
Disease Transmission, Infectious prevention & control
Disease Transmission, Infectious statistics & numerical data
Epidemics prevention & control
Epidemics statistics & numerical data
Models, Statistical
Public Health Surveillance methods
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 1553-7358
- Volume :
- 17
- Issue :
- 1
- Database :
- MEDLINE
- Journal :
- PLoS computational biology
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 33503024
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1008545