1. Post–Liver Transplant Outcomes: A Comparative Study of 6 Predictive Models
- Author
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Christof Kaltenmeier, MD, Eishan Ashwat, BA, Hao Liu, MD, PhD, Charbel Elias, MD, Amaan Rahman, BA, Jason Mail-Anthony, BA, Isabel Neckermann, BA, Stalin Dharmayan, MD, Andrew Crane, MD, Godwin Packiaraj, MD, Subhashini Ayloo, MD, MPH, Armando Ganoza, MD, MBA, Vikraman Gunabushanam, MD, and Michele Molinari, MD, MHS
- Subjects
Surgery ,RD1-811 - Abstract
Background. We compared the performance of the Liver Transplant Risk Score (LTRS) with the survival outcomes following liver transplantation (SOFT), pretransplant SOFT (P-SOFT), Balance of Risk Score (BAR), donor-age and model for end-stage liver disease (D-MELD), and Organ Procurement and Transplantation Network Risk Prediction Score (ORPS) for the prediction of 90-d mortality, 1-y mortality, and 5-y survival after first-time liver transplantation (LT). Methods. A retrospective analysis of the Scientific Registry of Transplant Recipients was conducted using data collected between 2002 and 2021. Results. A total of 82 696 adult LT recipients with a median age of 56 y were included. The area under the curve for 90-d mortality were 0.61, 0.66, 0.65, 0.61, 0.58, and 0.56 for the LTRS, SOFT, P-SOFT, BAR, D-MELD, and ORPS, respectively (all pairwise comparisons: P < 0.05). The area under the curve for 1-y mortality were 0.60, 0.63, 0.62, 0.59, 0.60, 0.57, and 0.59 for the LTRS, SOFT, P-SOFT, BAR, D-MELD, and ORPS, respectively (all pairwise comparisons: P < 0.05). The c-statistics for 5-y survival were not statistically significant among the models. For 90-d mortality, 1-y mortality, and 5-y survival, the correlation coefficients between the LTRS and P-SOFT (the 2 models requiring only preoperative parameters) were 0.90. 0.91, and 0.81, respectively (P
- Published
- 2024
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