351. Employing the Coupled EUHFORIA‐OpenGGCM Model to Predict CME Geoeffectiveness.
- Author
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Maharana, Anwesha, Cramer, W. Douglas, Samara, Evangelia, Scolini, Camilla, Raeder, Joachim, and Poedts, Stefaan
- Subjects
CORONAL mass ejections ,INTERPLANETARY magnetic fields ,THERMOSPHERE ,SPACE environment ,GENERAL circulation model ,MAGNETIC storms ,SOLAR wind - Abstract
EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) is a physics‐based data‐driven solar wind and coronal mass ejections (CMEs) propagation model designed for space weather forecasting and event analysis investigations. Although EUHFORIA can predict the solar wind plasma and magnetic field properties at Earth, it is not equipped to quantify the geo‐effectiveness of the solar transients in terms of geomagnetic indices like the disturbance storm time (Dst) index and the auroral indices, that quantify the impact of the magnetized plasma encounters on Earth's magnetosphere. Therefore, we couple EUHFORIA with the Open Geospace General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM), a magnetohydrodynamic model of the response of Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere to transient solar wind characteristics. In this coupling, OpenGGCM is driven by the solar wind and interplanetary magnetic field obtained from EUHFORIA simulations to produce the magnetospheric and ionospheric response to the CMEs. This coupling is validated with two observed geo‐effective CME events driven with the spheromak flux‐rope CME model. We compare these simulation results with the indices obtained from OpenGGCM simulations driven by the measured solar wind data from spacecraft. We further employ the dynamic time warping (DTW) technique to assess the model performance in predicting Dst. The main highlight of this study is to use EUHFORIA simulated time series to predict the Dst and auroral indices 1–2 days in advance, as compared to using the observed solar wind data at L1, which only provides predictions 1–2 hr before the actual impact. Plain Language Summary: Coronal mass ejections (CMEs) are gigantic eruptions of magnetized and charged matter (plasma) from the Sun that can propagate all the way to Earth and interact with Earth's magnetic shield, the magnetosphere. They can cause major disruptions in space‐ and ground‐based technologies, and in turn, affect our socio‐economic lives on Earth. Hence, we predict the arrival time of the CMEs and quantify the impact of such geomagnetic storms. Even with the 24 × 7 monitoring of the Sun from Earth's perspective, it is not possible to accurately predict the arrival times of Earth‐directed CMEs, and most importantly, assess the severity of the associated storms. Therefore, we perform 3D physics‐based modeling with the EUHFORIA model to track the CMEs from the Sun to Earth. EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) provides the plasma and magnetic field conditions near Earth. However, with just EUHFORIA output we cannot quantify the geomagnetic impact of the CMEs. Therefore, EUHFORIA output is used as input to OpenGGCM, a 3D physics‐based model that simulates the response of magnetosphere, ionosphere, and thermosphere to CME impact. With the joint EUHFORIA and OpenGGCM simulations, geomagnetic indices can be predicted 1–2 days in advance, thus making this a promising methodology for CME‐induced space weather forecasting. Key Points: The coupling of EUropean Heliospheric FORecasting Information Asset (EUHFORIA) with Open Geospace General Circulation Model (OpenGGCM), self‐consistently provides physics‐based predictions of the geo‐effectiveness of coronal mass ejections impactsGeomagnetic indices can be predicted 1–2 days in advance with EUHFORIA, as opposed to the much shorter predictions with real‐time L1 dataWe employ an advanced metric, Dynamic Time Warping, to account for time shifts, and to assess the model performance in predicting Dst [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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