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BackgroundLong COVID describes new or persistent symptoms at least 4 weeks after onset of acute COVID-19. Clinical codes to describe this phenomenon were recently created.AimTo describe the use of long-COVID codes, and variation of use by general practice, demographic variables, and over time.Design and settingPopulation-based cohort study in English primary care.MethodWorking on behalf of NHS England, OpenSAFELY data were used encompassing 96% of the English population between 1 February 2020 and 25 May 2021. The proportion of people with a recorded code for long COVID was measured overall and by demographic factors, electronic health record software system (EMIS or TPP), and week.ResultsLong COVID was recorded for 23 273 people. Coding was unevenly distributed among practices, with 26.7% of practices having never used the codes. Regional variation ranged between 20.3 per 100 000 people for East of England (95% confidence interval [CI] = 19.3 to 21.4) and 55.6 per 100 000 people in London (95% CI = 54.1 to 57.1). Coding was higher among females (52.1, 95% CI = 51.3 to 52.9) than males (28.1, 95% CI = 27.5 to 28.7), and higher among practices using EMIS (53.7, 95% CI = 52.9 to 54.4) than those using TPP (20.9, 95% CI = 20.3 to 21.4).ConclusionCurrent recording of long COVID in primary care is very low, and variable between practices. This may reflect patients not presenting; clinicians and patients holding different diagnostic thresholds; or challenges with the design and communication of diagnostic codes. Increased awareness of diagnostic codes is recommended to facilitate research and planning of services, and also surveys with qualitative work to better evaluate clinicians’ understanding of the diagnosis.

Birth weight (BW), as a proxy for intrauterine growth, is influenced by both fetal and maternal genetic factors. Single nucleotide polymorphisms in the human leukocyte antigen (HLA) region in both maternal and fetal genomes have been robustly associated with BW in previous genetic association studies suggesting the involvement of classical HLA alleles in BW etiology. However, no study to date has partitioned the association between BW and classical HLA alleles into maternal and fetal components. We used structural equation modelling (SEM) to estimate the indirect maternal (i.e. via the intrauterine environment) and direct fetal effects of classical HLA alleles on BW. Our SEM leverages the data structure of the UK Biobank (UKB), which includes participants’ own BW and/or the BW of their firstborn child (in the case of UKB females). We show via simulation that our model yields asymptotically unbiased estimates of the maternal and fetal allelic effects on BW and appropriate type I error rates, in contrast to simple regression models that estimate unconditioned maternal and fetal effects. Asymptotic power calculations show that we have sufficient power to detect moderate-sized maternal or fetal allelic effects (standardized effect size ≥ 0.01) of common HLA alleles on BW in the UKB. Applying our SEM to imputed classical HLA alleles and own and offspring BW of ∼270,000 participants from the UKB replicated the previously reported association at the HLA-C locus (C*04:01, P = 2.13×10−7, C*05:01, P= 6.91×10−5, C*03:03, P= 4.53×10−3, respectively) and revealed strong evidence for maternal (HLA-A*03:01, P = 7.90×10−8; B*35:01, P = 7.78×10−5; B*39:06, P = 8.49 ×10−5) and fetal allelic effects (HLA-B*39:06, P = 4.03×10−4) of non-HLA-C alleles on BW. These novel allelic associations between BW and classical HLA alleles provide insight into the immunogenetics of fetal growth in utero.

Interleukin 6 (IL-6) is a multifunctional cytokine with both pro- and anti-inflammatory properties with a heritability estimate of up to 61%. The circulating levels of IL-6 in blood have been associated with an increased risk of complex disease pathogenesis. We conducted a two-staged, discovery and replication meta genome-wide association study (GWAS) of circulating serum IL-6 levels comprising up to 67 428 (ndiscovery = 52 654 and nreplication = 14 774) individuals of European ancestry. The inverse variance fixed effects based discovery meta-analysis, followed by replication led to the identification of two independent loci, IL1F10/IL1RN rs6734238 on chromosome (Chr) 2q14, (Pcombined = 1.8 × 10−11), HLA-DRB1/DRB5 rs660895 on Chr6p21 (Pcombined = 1.5 × 10−10) in the combined meta-analyses of all samples. We also replicated the IL6R rs4537545 locus on Chr1q21 (Pcombined = 1.2 × 10−122). Our study identifies novel loci for circulating IL-6 levels uncovering new immunological and inflammatory pathways that may influence IL-6 pathobiology.

Indirect genetic effects from relatives may result in misleading quantifications of heritability, but can also be of interest in their own right. In this paper we propose Trio-GCTA, a model for separating direct and indirect genetic effects when genome-wide single nucleotide polymorphism data have been collected from parent-offspring trios. The model is applicable to phenotypes obtained from any of the family members. We discuss appropriate parameter interpretations and apply the method to three exemplar phenotypes: offspring birth weight, maternal relationship satisfaction, and paternal body-mass index, using real data from the Norwegian Mother, Father and Child Cohort Study (MoBa).

The Classical Twin Method (CTM) compares the similarity of monozygotic (MZ) twins with that of dizygotic (DZ) twins to make inferences about the relative importance of genes and environment in the etiology of individual differences. The design has been applied to thousands of traits across the biomedical, behavioral and social sciences and is arguably the most widely used natural experiment known to science. The fundamental assumption of the CTM is that trait relevant environmental covariation within MZ pairs is the same as that found within DZ pairs, so that zygosity differences in within-pair variance must be due to genetic factors uncontaminated by the environment. This equal environments assumption (EEA) has been, and still is hotly contested, and has been mentioned as a possible contributing factor to the missing heritability conundrum. In this manuscript, we introduce a new model for testing the EEA, which we call the Augmented Classical Twin Design which uses identity by descent (IBD) sharing between DZ twin pairs to estimate separate environmental variance components for MZ and DZ twin pairs, and provides a test of whether these are equal. We show through simulation that given large samples of DZ twin pairs, the model provides unbiased estimates of variance components and valid tests of the EEA under strong assumptions (e.g. no epistatic variance, IBD sharing in DZ twins estimated accurately etc.) which may not hold in reality. Sample sizes in excess of 50,000 DZ twin pairs with genome-wide genetic data are likely to be required in order to detect substantial violations of the EEA with moderate power. Consequently, we recommend that the Augmented Classical Twin Design only be applied to datasets with very large numbers of DZ twin pairs (> 50,000 DZ twin pairs), and given the strong assumptions relating to the absence of epistatic variance, appropriate caution be exercised regarding interpretation of the results.

Objectives To assess the association between routinely prescribed non-steroidal anti-inflammatory drugs (NSAIDs) and deaths from COVID-19 using OpenSAFELY, a secure analytical platform.Methods We conducted two cohort studies from 1 March to 14 June 2020. Working on behalf of National Health Service England, we used routine clinical data in England linked to death data. In study 1, we identified people with an NSAID prescription in the last 3 years from the general population. In study 2, we identified people with rheumatoid arthritis/osteoarthritis. We defined exposure as current NSAID prescription within the 4 months before 1 March 2020. We used Cox regression to estimate HRs for COVID-19 related death in people currently prescribed NSAIDs, compared with those not currently prescribed NSAIDs, accounting for age, sex, comorbidities, other medications and geographical region.Results In study 1, we included 536 423 current NSAID users and 1 927 284 non-users in the general population. We observed no evidence of difference in risk of COVID-19 related death associated with current use (HR 0.96, 95% CI 0.80 to 1.14) in the multivariable-adjusted model. In study 2, we included 1 708 781 people with rheumatoid arthritis/osteoarthritis, of whom 175 495 (10%) were current NSAID users. In the multivariable-adjusted model, we observed a lower risk of COVID-19 related death (HR 0.78, 95% CI 0.64 to 0.94) associated with current use of NSAID versus non-use.Conclusions We found no evidence of a harmful effect of routinely prescribed NSAIDs on COVID-19 related deaths. Risks of COVID-19 do not need to influence decisions about the routine therapeutic use of NSAIDs.https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/This is an open access article distributed in accordance with the Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 Unported (CC BY 4.0) license, which permits others to copy, redistribute, remix, transform and build upon this work for any purpose, provided the original work is properly cited, a link to the licence is given, and indication of whether changes were made. See: https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/.http://dx.doi.org/10.1136/annrheumdis-2020-219517

Disaggregation and estimation of genetic effects from offspring and parents has long been of interest to statistical geneticists. Recently, technical and methodological advances have made the genome-wide and loci-specific estimation of direct offspring and parental genetic nurture effects more possible. However, unbiased estimation using these methods requires datasets where both parents and at least one child have been genotyped, which are relatively scarce. Our group has recently developed a method and accompanying software (IMPISH; Hwang et al. in PLoS Genet 16:e1009154, 2020) which is able to impute missing parental genotypes from observed data on sibships and estimate their effects on an offspring phenotype conditional on the effects of genetic transmission. However, this method is unable to disentangle maternal and paternal effects, which may differ in magnitude and direction. Here, we introduce an extension to the original IMPISH routine which takes advantage of all available nuclear families to impute parent-specific missing genotypes and obtain asymptotically unbiased estimates of genetic effects on offspring phenotypes. We apply this this method to data from related individuals in the UK Biobank, showing concordance with previous estimates of maternal genetic effects on offspring birthweight. We also conduct the first GWAS jointly estimating offspring-, maternal-, and paternal-specific genetic effects on body-mass index.

Amino acids are key to protein synthesis, energy metabolism, cell signaling and gene expression; however, the contribution of specific maternal amino acids to fetal growth is unclear. We explored the effect of maternal circulating amino acids on fetal growth, proxied by birthweight, using two-sample Mendelian randomization and summary data from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) of serum amino acids levels (sample 1, n = 86,507) and a maternal GWAS of offspring birthweight, adjusting for fetal genotype effects (sample 2, n = 406,063 with maternal and/or fetal genotype effect estimates). A total of 106 independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with 19 amino acids (p < 4.9 × 10−10) were used as genetic instrumental variables. Our results provide evidence that maternal circulating glutamine (59 g offspring birthweight increase per SD increase in maternal amino acid level, 95% CI: 7, 110) and serine (27 g, 95% CI: 9, 46) raise, while leucine (−59 g, 95% CI: -106, -11) and phenylalanine (−25 g, 95% CI: -47, -4) lower offspring birthweight. Our findings strengthen evidence for key roles of maternal circulating amino acids in healthy fetal growth.

Food waste is an issue of global importance. Households generate more food waste than any other source in high- and middle-income countries. There are many solutions to reduce household food waste, but measurement of the impact of each solution is costly, and therefore usually not undertaken. This is a major barrier to decision makers adopting the most effective solutions. Discrete event simulation (DES) modelling is ideally placed to overcome these problems. This paper presents the most developed application of DES to household food waste to date: The Household Simulation Model (HHSM). The HHSM has the flexibility to model several food items. It includes many household dynamics that can affect food waste (e.g., purchasing, storage, consumption). The HHSM simulates a range of household types to reflect the diversity of the population in question (for this paper, the United Kingdom). This paper demonstrates the innovation of the HHSM: it provides a framework allowing different types of evidence to be brought together to help understand how food waste is influenced by a range of factors. To illustrate its usefulness, we provide an analysis of six potential interventions to reduce milk waste, covering both product innovation and behaviour change. Refereed/Peer-reviewed

The International Statistical Genetics Workshop (commonly referred to as the “Boulder Workshop”) has been held annually in Boulder, Colorado almost every year since 1990. A staple feature of each workshop has been the presence of a “question box” (either a physical box or an online virtual one) where workshop participants are given the opportunity of asking questions to the faculty. In this manuscript, we have compiled a list of ten “classic” questions that have appeared in one form or another across multiple workshops and our attempts at answering them.

Rationale: Whether biomarkers can identify subgroups of patients with septic shock with differential treatment responses to hydrocortisone is unknown.Objectives: To determine if there is heterogene...

Estimates from Mendelian randomization studies of unrelated individuals can be biased due to uncontrolled confounding from familial effects. Here we describe methods for within-family Mendelian randomization analyses and use simulation studies to show that family-based analyses can reduce such biases. We illustrate empirically how familial effects can affect estimates using data from 61,008 siblings from the Nord-Trøndelag Health Study and UK Biobank and replicated our findings using 222,368 siblings from 23andMe. Both Mendelian randomization estimates using unrelated individuals and within family methods reproduced established effects of lower BMI reducing risk of diabetes and high blood pressure. However, while Mendelian randomization estimates from samples of unrelated individuals suggested that taller height and lower BMI increase educational attainment, these effects were strongly attenuated in within-family Mendelian randomization analyses. Our findings indicate the necessity of controlling for population structure and familial effects in Mendelian randomization studies., Family-based study designs have been applied to resolve confounding by population stratification, dynastic effects and assortative mating in genetic association analyses. Here, Brumpton et al. describe theory and simulations for overcoming such biases in Mendelian randomization through within-family studies.

The ‘turn’ to practice in social theory is proving influential in the sociological study of consumption (following Warde, 2005). This article joins current debates that appraise the contributions of this growing body of work, specifically its relationship with – and possible mode of succession to – cultural studies of consumption. It considers two claims about the impact and status of practice theoretic repertoires in consumption scholarship (Warde, 2014). First, that they invite greater attention than the cultural turn to objects and technologies as material forces. Second, that they have not yet found ways to locate consumption in the context of wider economic processes. My central argument is that theories of practice offer a partial reading of materiality, and that engagement with a greater range of material semiotic approaches can help in making better links between consumption and economy. This argument is illustrated through reference to market agencements, the social life of things, and ontological politics. I suggest these perspectives are compatible with practice theoretic approaches and that taken together, they represent some promising responses to a suite of fundamental challenges confronting consumption studies. I conclude that theories of practice – plural – have not yet run their course as an approach to consumption and economy. The parameters of consumption scholarship are also considered alongside the relationships between political economy and cultural analysis.

Several epidemiological studies have reported a relationship between statin treatment and increased bone mineral density (BMD) and reduced fracture risk, but the mechanism underlying the purported relationship is unclear. We used Mendelian randomization (MR) to assess whether this relationship is explained by a specific effect in response to statin use or by a general effect of lipid lowering. We utilized 400 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with plasma lipid levels as exposure. The outcome results were obtained from a heel estimated BMD (eBMD) genomewide association study (GWAS) from the UK Biobank and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) BMD at four body sites and fracture GWAS from the GEFOS consortium. We performed univariate and multivariable MR analyses of low-density lipoprotein cholesterol (LDL-C), high-density lipoprotein cholesterol (HDL-C), and triglyceride levels on BMD and fracture. Univariate MR analyses suggested a causal effect of LDL-C on eBMD (β = −0.06; standard deviation change in eBMD per standard deviation change in LDL-C, 95% confidence interval [CI] = –0.08 to −0.04; p = 4 × 10), total body BMD (β = −0.05, 95% CI = –0.08 to −0.01, p = 6 × 10) and potentially on lumbar spine BMD. Multivariable MR suggested that the effects of LDL-C on eBMD and total body BMD were independent of HDL-C and triglycerides. Sensitivity MR analyses suggested that the LDL-C results were robust to pleiotropy. MR analyses of LDL-C restricted to SNPs in the HMGCR region showed similar effects on eBMD (β = −0.083; −0.132 to −0.034; p = 0.001) to those excluding these SNPs (β = −0.063; −0.090 to −0.036; p = 8 × 10). Bidirectional MR analyses provided some evidence for a causal effect of eBMD on plasma LDL-C levels. Our results suggest that effects of statins on eBMD and total body BMD are at least partly due to their LDL-C lowering effect. Further studies are required to examine the potential role of modifying plasma lipid levels in treating osteoporosis.

Background Maternal pre-pregnancy body mass index (BMI) is positively associated with offspring birth weight (BW) and BMI in childhood and adulthood. Each of these associations could be due to causal intrauterine effects, or confounding (genetic or environmental), or some combination of these. Here we estimate the extent to which the association between maternal BMI and offspring body size is explained by offspring genotype, as a first step towards establishing the importance of genetic confounding. Methods We examined the associations of maternal pre-pregnancy BMI with offspring BW and BMI at 1, 5, 10 and 15 years, in three European birth cohorts (n ≤11 498). Bivariate Genomic-relatedness-based Restricted Maximum Likelihood implemented in the GCTA software (GCTA-GREML) was used to estimate the extent to which phenotypic covariance was explained by offspring genotype as captured by common imputed single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). We merged individual participant data from all cohorts, enabling calculation of pooled estimates. Results Phenotypic covariance (equivalent here to Pearson’s correlation coefficient) between maternal BMI and offspring phenotype was 0.15 [95% confidence interval (CI): 0.13, 0.17] for offspring BW, increasing to 0.29 (95% CI: 0.26, 0.31) for offspring 15 year BMI. Covariance explained by offspring genotype was negligible for BW [–0.04 (95% CI: –0.09, 0.01)], but increased to 0.12 (95% CI: 0.04, 0.21) at 15 years, which is equivalent to 43% (95% CI: 15%, 72%) of the phenotypic covariance. Sensitivity analyses using weight, BMI and ponderal index as the offspring phenotype at all ages showed similar results. Conclusions Offspring genotype explains a substantial fraction of the covariance between maternal BMI and offspring adolescent BMI. This is consistent with a potentially important role for genetic confounding as a driver of the maternal BMI–offspring BMI association.

Previous genetic association studies have failed to identify loci robustly associated with sepsis, and there have been no published genetic association studies or polygenic risk score analyses of patients with septic shock, despite evidence suggesting genetic factors may be involved. We systematically collected genotype and clinical outcome data in the context of a randomized controlled trial from patients with septic shock to enrich the presence of disease-associated genetic variants. We performed genomewide association studies of susceptibility and mortality in septic shock using 493 patients with septic shock and 2442 population controls, and polygenic risk score analysis to assess genetic overlap between septic shock risk/mortality with clinically relevant traits. One variant, rs9489328, located in AL589740.1 noncoding RNA, was significantly associated with septic shock (p = 1.05 × 10–10); however, it is likely a false-positive. We were unable to replicate variants previously reported to be associated (p < 1.00 × 10–6 in previous scans) with susceptibility to and mortality from sepsis. Polygenic risk scores for hematocrit and granulocyte count were negatively associated with 28-day mortality (p = 3.04 × 10–3; p = 2.29 × 10–3), and scores for C-reactive protein levels were positively associated with susceptibility to septic shock (p = 1.44 × 10–3). Results suggest that common variants of large effect do not influence septic shock susceptibility, mortality and resolution; however, genetic predispositions to clinically relevant traits are significantly associated with increased susceptibility and mortality in septic individuals.

Background It has been hypothesised that greater maternal adiposity before or during pregnancy causes greater offspring adiposity in childhood and adulthood, via causal intrauterine or periconceptional mechanisms. Previous Mendelian randomization (MR) estimates were imprecise, with wide confidence intervals that included potentially important protective or adverse effects, and may have been biased by collider effects or imperfect adjustment for genetic inheritance. Here we use an improved MR approach to investigate whether associations between maternal pre-/early pregnancy body mass index (BMI) and offspring adiposity from birth to adolescence are causal, or are instead due to confounding. Methods and findings We undertook confounder adjusted multivariable (MV) regression and Mendelian randomization (MR) using mother-offspring pairs from two UK cohorts: Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children (ALSPAC) and Born in Bradford (BiB). In ALSPAC and BiB the outcomes were birthweight (BW; N = 9339) and BMI at age 1 (N = 8659) and 4 years (N = 7575), and in ALSPAC only we investigated BMI at 10 (N = 4476) and 15 years (N = 4112) and dual-energy X-ray absorptiometry (DXA) determined fat mass index (FMI) from age 10– 18 years (N = 2659 to 3855). We compared MR results from several polygenic risk scores (PRS), calculated from maternal non-transmitted alleles at between 29 and 80,939 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs). MV and MR showed a consistent positive association of maternal BMI with BW, but for adiposity at most older ages MR estimates were weaker than MV estimates. In MV regression a one standard deviation (SD) higher maternal BMI was associated with a 0.13 (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.10, 0.16) SD increase in offspring BW. The corresponding MR estimate from the strongest PRS (including up to 80,939 SNPs) was 0.14 (95% CI: 0.05, 0.23), with no difference between the two estimates (Pdifference = 0.84). For 15 year BMI the MV and MR estimates (80,939 SNPs) were 0.32 (95% CI: 0.29, 0.36) and 0.13 (95% CI: 0.01, 0.24) respectively (Pdifference = 1.0e-3). Results for FMI were similar to those for adolescent BMI. As the number of SNPs included in the PRS increased, the MR confidence intervals narrowed and the effect estimates for adolescent adiposity became closer to the MV estimates. Sensitivity analyses suggested the stronger effects with more SNPs were explained by horizontal pleiotropic bias away from zero. Consequently, the unbiased difference between the MV and MR estimates is probably greater than shown in our main analyses. Furthermore, MR estimates from IVs with fewer SNPs provided no strong evidence for a causal effect on adolescent adiposity. Conclusions Our results suggest that higher maternal pre-/early-pregnancy BMI is not a key driver of higher adiposity in the next generation. Thus, they support interventions that target the whole population for reducing overweight and obesity, rather than a specific focus on women of reproductive age.

Summary Fingerprints are of long-standing practical and cultural interest, but little is known about the mechanisms that underlie their variation. Using genome-wide scans in Han Chinese cohorts, we identified 18 loci associated with fingerprint type across the digits, including a genetic basis for the long-recognized “pattern-block” correlations among the middle three digits. In particular, we identified a variant near EVI1 that alters regulatory activity and established a role for EVI1 in dermatoglyph patterning in mice. Dynamic EVI1 expression during human development supports its role in shaping the limbs and digits, rather than influencing skin patterning directly. Trans-ethnic meta-analysis identified 43 fingerprint-associated loci, with nearby genes being strongly enriched for general limb development pathways. We also found that fingerprint patterns were genetically correlated with hand proportions. Taken together, these findings support the key role of limb development genes in influencing the outcome of fingerprint patterning., Graphical abstract, Highlights • GWAS identifies variants associated with fingerprint type across all digits • Fingerprint-associated genes are strongly enriched for limb development functions • Evi1 alters dermatoglyphs in mice by modulating limb rather than skin development • Fingerprint patterns are genetically correlated with hand and finger proportions, Genome-wide association scans in Han Chinese individuals and a trans-ethnic meta-analysis reveal genetic regions that are associated with specific fingerprint patterning; functional studies in mouse models confirm a role of EVI1 in early limb development and ridge patterning.

Maternal genetic effects can be defined as the effect of a mother’s genotype on the phenotype of her offspring, independent of the offspring’s genotype. Maternal genetic effects can act via the intrauterine environment during pregnancy and/or via the postnatal environment. In this manuscript, we present a simple extension to the basic adoption design that uses structural equation modelling (SEM) to partition maternal genetic effects into prenatal and postnatal effects. We examine the power, utility and type I error rate of our model using simulations and asymptotic power calculations. We apply our model to polygenic scores of educational attainment and birth weight associated variants, in up to 5,178 adopted singletons, 943 trios, 2687 mother-offspring pairs, 712 father-offspring pairs and 347,980 singletons from the UK Biobank. Our results show the expected pattern of maternal genetic effects on offspring birth weight, but unexpectedly large prenatal maternal genetic effects on offspring educational attainment. Sensitivity and simulation analyses suggest this result may be at least partially due to adopted individuals in the UK Biobank being raised by their biological relatives. We show that accurate modelling of these sorts of cryptic relationships is sufficient to bring type I error rate under control and produce asymptotically unbiased estimates of prenatal and postnatal maternal genetic effects. We conclude that there would be considerable value in following up adopted individuals in the UK Biobank to determine whether they were raised by their biological relatives, and if so, to precisely ascertain the nature of these relationships. These adopted individuals could then be incorporated into informative statistical genetics models like the one described in our manuscript to further elucidate the genetic architecture of complex traits and diseases.

Based on fieldwork in the UK and Portugal, this paper considers the relationships between cultural analyses of taste and the embodied activity of tasting. As part of a wider project on the multiple ontologies of ‘freshness’, the paper conceptualises taste as an emergent effect of tasting practices. Drawing on evidence from a series of ‘tasting events’ (where research participants were recorded shopping, cooking and eating a meal with friends and family), the paper explores the multiple dimensions of taste concluding that even the most personal and sensory aspects of tasting food involve a social dimension which we interpret through the lens of practice theory. The paper identifies three specific dimensions of tasting as a social practice involving food’s material and visceral qualities; the links between embodiment and emotion; and the contextual significance of family and social relations. Our findings contribute to recent debates about ‘making taste public’, even in the apparently private context of household consumption.

Estimating effects of parental and sibling genotypes (indirect genetic effects) can provide insight into how the family environment influences phenotypic variation. There is growing molecular genetic evidence for effects of parental phenotypes on their offspring (e.g. parental educational attainment), but the extent to which siblings affect each other is currently unclear. Here we used data from samples of unrelated individuals, without (singletons) and with biological full-siblings (non-singletons), to investigate and estimate sibling effects. Indirect genetic effects of siblings increase (or decrease) the covariance between genetic variation and a phenotype. It follows that differences in genetic association estimates between singletons and non-singletons could indicate indirect genetic effects of siblings if there is no heterogeneity in other sources of genetic association between singletons and non-singletons. We used UK Biobank data to estimate polygenic score (PGS) associations for height, BMI and educational attainment in self-reported singletons (N = 50,143) and non-singletons (N = 328,549). The educational attainment PGS association estimate was 12% larger (95% C.I. 3%, 21%) in the non-singleton sample than in the singleton sample, but the height and BMI PGS associations were consistent. Birth order data suggested that the difference in educational attainment PGS associations was driven by individuals with older siblings rather than firstborns. The relationship between number of siblings and educational attainment PGS associations was non-linear; PGS associations were 24% smaller in individuals with 6 or more siblings compared to the rest of the sample (95% C.I. 11%, 38%). We estimate that a 1 SD increase in sibling educational attainment PGS corresponds to a 0.025 year increase in the index individual’s years in schooling (95% C.I. 0.013, 0.036). Our results suggest that older siblings may influence the educational attainment of younger siblings, adding to the growing evidence that effects of the environment on phenotypic variation partially reflect social effects of germline genetic variation in relatives.

Background On December 8th 2020, NHS England administered the first COVID-19 vaccination as part of an ambitious vaccination programme during a global health emergency. Aims To develop a framework for detailed near-real-time monitoring of COVID-19 vaccine roll-out; to describe trends and variation in coverage by geographic area, and between key clinical and demographic patient groups. Methods Working on behalf of NHS England we used routine clinical data from 23.4 million patients to conduct a retrospective cohort study of comprehensive electronic health record data in NHS England, using the OpenSAFELY-TPP platform which covers approximately 40% of the general population in England with weekly data updates. We developed algorithms to identify key demographic and clinical sub-groups within this population and generated descriptive statistics on proportion of eligible patients receiving the vaccine among key Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) target groups. Results Between December 8th and January 13th 961,580 people out of 23.4m in our dataset received a COVID-19 vaccine. Of 1,160,062 patients aged 80 or over and not living in a care home (currently targeted by JCVI) 476,375 had been vaccinated in total (41.1%). We observed a substantial divergence in vaccination by ethnicity within this group (White 42.5% vaccinated, Black 20.5%) and across rankings of deprivation (least deprived 44.7%, most deprived 37.9%). Patients with pre-existing medical conditions were equally likely, or more likely, to have received a vaccine across most co-morbidity groups with two exceptions: severe mental illness (30.3% vaccinated) and learning disability (28.1%). We identify substantial variation in vaccination among the over-80s between Sustainability and Transformation Partnerships (STPs; Range 12%-74%); lower vaccination rates among ethnic minority and deprived groups was observed in most but not all STPs. In the 70-79 age cohort 74,108 people (3.6%) had been vaccinated. 378,921 vaccine recipients under 70 and not identifiably resident in a care home were presumed to be health or social care workers; 32,174 recipients were identified as older aged care home residents (33.2% coverage). Of all those vaccinated, 169,472 had received a second dose (17.6%). Conclusions The NHS in England has rapidly delivered mass vaccination. We were able to deploy a data monitoring framework across small clinical subgroups using linked patient-level NHS data on 23.4 million people with very short delays from vaccine administration to completed analysis. Targeted activity may be needed to address lower vaccination rates observed among certain key groups: ethnic minorities, people living in areas of higher deprivation, and those with severe mental illness or learning disabilities. However we note that this data is only from the first preliminary weeks of the vaccination programme. Variation in vaccination coverage between groups and regions will have many complex drivers, the figures presented in this manuscript require thoughtful interpretation to support a rapidly evolving NHS vaccination campaign; we are sharing local level data with national and regional NHS teams on request.

Ankylosing Spondylitis (AS) is a highly heritable inflammatory arthritis which occurs more frequently in men than women. In their recent publication examining sex differences in the genetic aetiology of common complex traits and diseases, Bernabeu et al. (2021) observe differences in heritability of AS between sexes, and a genome-wide significant genotype by sex interaction in risk of AS at the major histocompatability (MHC) locus1. The authors then present evidence suggesting that this genotype by sex interaction arises primarily as a result of differential expression of the gene MICA across the sexes in skeletal muscle tissue. Through a series of conditional association analyses in the UK Biobank, reanalysis of the GTEx gene expression resource and RNASeq experiments on peripheral blood cells from AS cases and controls, we show that the genotype by sex interaction the authors’ report is unlikely to be a result of variation in MICA, but probably reflects a known interaction between the HLA-B gene, sex and risk of AS. We demonstrate that the diagnostic accuracy of AS in the UK Biobank is low, particularly amongst women, likely explaining some of the observed differences in heritability across the sexes and the difficulty in precisely locating association signals in the cohort.

Data availability: Our study uses two-sample MR. We used both published summary results (i.e. taking results from published research papers and websites) and individual participant cohort data: journal-published and website summary data were used for sample one of the two-sample MR (published GWAS of BMI and body fat percentage). The references to the published data sources are provided in the main paper. The data for the GWAS of BMI are available at https://portals.broadinstitute.org/collaboration/giant/index.php/GIANT_consortium_data_files. The data for the GWAS of body fat percentage are available at https://walker05.u.hpc.mssm.edu. We used individual participant data for the second MR sample and for undertaking sensitivity analyses from the UKB, ALSPAC, BiB, EFSOCH and HAPO cohorts. The data in UKB, ALSPAC and BiB are fully available, via managed systems, to any researchers. The managed system for both studies is a requirement of the study funders but access is not restricted on the basis of overlap with other applications to use the data or on the basis of peer review of the proposed science. Researchers have to pay for a dataset to be prepared for them. Full information on how to access UKB data can be found at www.ukbiobank.ac.uk/using-the-resource/. The ALSPAC data management plan (www.bristol.ac.uk/alspac/researchers/data-access/documents/alspac-data-management-plan.pdf) describes, in detail, the policy regarding data sharing, which is through a system of managed open access. The following steps highlight how to apply for access to the data included in this paper and all other ALSPAC data: (1) please read the ALSPAC access policy (PDF, 627 kB), which describes the process of accessing the data and samples in detail, and outlines the costs associated with doing so; (2) you may also find it useful to browse the fully searchable ALSPAC research proposals database, which lists all research projects that have been approved since April 2011; (3) please submit your research proposal for consideration by the ALSPAC Executive Committee and you will receive a response within 10 working days to advise you whether your proposal has been approved. If you have any questions about accessing data, please e-mail alspac-data@bristol.ac.uk. Full information on how to access BiB data can be found at https://borninbradford.nhs.uk/research/how-to-access-data/. Requests for access to the original EFSOCH dataset should be made in writing in the first instance to the EFSOCH data team via the Exeter Clinical Research Facility (crf@exeter.ac.uk). Copyright © The Author(s) 2022. Aims/hypothesis: Higher maternal BMI during pregnancy is associated with higher offspring birthweight, but it is not known whether this is solely the result of adverse metabolic consequences of higher maternal adiposity, such as maternal insulin resistance and fetal exposure to higher glucose levels, or whether there is any effect of raised adiposity through non-metabolic (e.g. mechanical) factors. We aimed to use genetic variants known to predispose to higher adiposity, coupled with a favourable metabolic profile, in a Mendelian randomisation (MR) study comparing the effect of maternal ‘metabolically favourable adiposity’ on offspring birthweight with the effect of maternal general adiposity (as indexed by BMI). Methods: To test the causal effects of maternal metabolically favourable adiposity or general adiposity on offspring birthweight, we performed two-sample MR. We used variants identified in large, published genetic-association studies as being associated with either higher adiposity and a favourable metabolic profile, or higher BMI (n = 442,278 and n = 322,154 for metabolically favourable adiposity and BMI, respectively). We then extracted data on the metabolically favourable adiposity and BMI variants from a large, published genetic-association study of maternal genotype and offspring birthweight controlling for fetal genetic effects (n = 406,063 with maternal and/or fetal genotype effect estimates). We used several sensitivity analyses to test the reliability of the results. As secondary analyses, we used data from four cohorts (total n = 9323 mother–child pairs) to test the effects of maternal metabolically favourable adiposity or BMI on maternal gestational glucose, anthropometric components of birthweight and cord-blood biomarkers. Results: Higher maternal adiposity with a favourable metabolic profile was associated with lower offspring birthweight (−94 [95% CI −150, −38] g per 1 SD [6.5%] higher maternal metabolically favourable adiposity, p = 0.001). By contrast, higher maternal BMI was associated with higher offspring birthweight (35 [95% CI 16, 53] g per 1 SD [4 kg/m2] higher maternal BMI, p = 0.0002). Sensitivity analyses were broadly consistent with the main results. There was evidence of outlier SNPs for both exposures; their removal slightly strengthened the metabolically favourable adiposity estimate and made no difference to the BMI estimate. Our secondary analyses found evidence to suggest that a higher maternal metabolically favourable adiposity decreases pregnancy fasting glucose levels while a higher maternal BMI increases them. The effects on neonatal anthropometric traits were consistent with the overall effect on birthweight but the smaller sample sizes for these analyses meant that the effects were imprecisely estimated. We also found evidence to suggest that higher maternal metabolically favourable adiposity decreases cord-blood leptin while higher maternal BMI increases it. Conclusions/interpretation: Our results show that higher adiposity in mothers does not necessarily lead to higher offspring birthweight. Higher maternal adiposity can lead to lower offspring birthweight if accompanied by a favourable metabolic profile. US National Institute of Health (R01 DK10324); European Research Council under the European Union’s Seventh Framework Programme (FP7/2007-2013) / ERC grant agreement no 669545; British Heart Foundation (CS/16/4/32482 and AA/18/7/34219); NIHR Biomedical Centre at the University Hospitals Bristol NHS Foundation Trust; University of Bristol.

Supplemental Digital Content is available in the text., Observational epidemiological studies have reported that higher maternal blood pressure (BP) during pregnancy is associated with increased future risk of offspring cardiometabolic disease. However, it is unclear whether this association represents a causal relationship through intrauterine mechanisms. We used a Mendelian randomization (MR) framework to examine the relationship between unweighted maternal genetic scores for systolic BP and diastolic BP and a range of cardiometabolic risk factors in the offspring of up to 29 708 genotyped mother-offspring pairs from the UKB study (UK Biobank) and the HUNT study (Trøndelag Health). We conducted similar analyses in up to 21 423 father-offspring pairs from the same cohorts. We confirmed that the BP-associated genetic variants from the general population sample also had similar effects on maternal BP during pregnancy in independent cohorts. We did not detect any association between maternal (or paternal) unweighted genetic scores and cardiometabolic offspring outcomes in the meta-analysis of UKB and HUNT after adjusting for offspring genotypes at the same loci. We find little evidence to support the notion that maternal BP is a major causal risk factor for adverse offspring cardiometabolic outcomes in later life.

Skull bone mineral density (SK-BMD) provides a suitable trait for the discovery of genes important to bone biology in general, and particularly for identifying components unique to intramembranous ossification, which cannot be captured at other skeletal sites. We assessed genetic determinants of SK-BMD in 43,800 individuals, identifying 59 genome-wide significant loci (4 novel), explaining 12.5% of its variance. Pathway and enrichment analyses of the association signals resulted in clustering within gene-sets involved in regulating the development of the skeleton; overexpressed in the musculoskeletal system; and enriched in enhancer and transcribed regions in osteoblasts. From the four novel loci (mapping to ZIC1, PRKAR1A, ATP6V1C1, GLRX3), two (ZIC1 and PRKAR1A) have previously been related to craniofacial developmental defects. Functional validation of skull development in zebrafish revealed abnormal cranial bone initiation that culminated in ectopic sutures and reduced BMD in mutated zic1 and atp6v1c1 fish and asymmetric bone growth and elevated BMD in mutated prkar1a fish. We confirmed a role of ZIC1 loss-of-function in suture patterning and discovered ATP6V1C1 gene associated with suture development. In light of the evidence presented suggesting that SK-BMD is genetically related to craniofacial abnormalities, our study opens new avenues to the understanding of the pathophysiology of craniofacial defects and towards the effective pharmacological treatment of bone diseases.

Background The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted healthcare activity globally. The NHS in England stopped most non-urgent work by March 2020, but later recommended that services should be restored to near-normal levels before winter where possible. The authors are developing the OpenSAFELY NHS Service Restoration Observatory , using data to describe changes in service activity during COVID-19, and reviewing signals for action with commissioners, researchers and clinicians. Here we report phase one: generating, managing, and describing the data. Objective To describe the volume and variation of coded clinical activity in English primary care across 23.8 million patients’ records, taking respiratory disease and laboratory procedures as key examples. Methods Working on behalf of NHS England we developed an open source software framework for data management and analysis to describe trends and variation in clinical activity across primary care EHR data on 23.8 million patients; and conducted a population cohort-based study to describe activity using CTV3 coding hierarchy and keyword searches from January 2019-September 2020. Results Much activity recorded in general practice declined to some extent during the pandemic, but largely recovered by September 2020, with some exceptions. There was a large drop in coded activity for commonly used laboratory tests, with broad recovery to pre-pandemic levels by September. One exception was blood coagulation tests such as International Normalised Ratio (INR), with a smaller reduction (median tests per 1000 patients in 2020: February 8.0; April 6.2; September 7.0). The overall pattern of recording for respiratory symptoms was less affected, following an expected seasonal pattern and classified as “no change” from the previous year. Respiratory tract infections exhibited a sustained drop compared with pre-pandemic levels, not returning to pre-pandemic levels by September 2020. Various COVID-19 codes increased through the period. We observed a small decline associated with high level codes for long-term respiratory conditions such as chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) and asthma. Asthma annual reviews experienced a small drop but since recovered, while COPD annual reviews remain below baseline. Conclusions We successfully delivered an open source software framework to describe trends and variation in clinical activity across an unprecedented scale of primary care data. The COVD-19 pandemic led to a substantial change in healthcare activity. Most laboratory tests showed substantial reduction, largely recovering to near-normal levels by September 2020, with some important tests less affected. Records of respiratory infections decreased with the exception of codes related to COVID-19, whilst activity of other respiratory disease codes was mixed. We are expanding the NHS Service Restoration Observatory in collaboration with clinicians, commissioners and researchers and welcome feedback.

Background The impact of COVID-19 on physical and mental health and employment after hospitalisation with acute disease is not well understood. The aim of this study was to determine the effects of COVID-19-related hospitalisation on health and employment, to identify factors associated with recovery, and to describe recovery phenotypes. Methods The Post-hospitalisation COVID-19 study (PHOSP-COVID) is a multicentre, long-term follow-up study of adults (aged ≥18 years) discharged from hospital in the UK with a clinical diagnosis of COVID-19, involving an assessment between 2 and 7 months after discharge, including detailed recording of symptoms, and physiological and biochemical testing. Multivariable logistic regression was done for the primary outcome of patient-perceived recovery, with age, sex, ethnicity, body-mass index, comorbidities, and severity of acute illness as covariates. A post-hoc cluster analysis of outcomes for breathlessness, fatigue, mental health, cognitive impairment, and physical performance was done using the clustering large applications k-medoids approach. The study is registered on the ISRCTN Registry (ISRCTN10980107). Findings We report findings for 1077 patients discharged from hospital between March 5 and Nov 30, 2020, who underwent assessment at a median of 5·9 months (IQR 4·9–6·5) after discharge. Participants had a mean age of 58 years (SD 13); 384 (36%) were female, 710 (69%) were of white ethnicity, 288 (27%) had received mechanical ventilation, and 540 (50%) had at least two comorbidities. At follow-up, only 239 (29%) of 830 participants felt fully recovered, 158 (20%) of 806 had a new disability (assessed by the Washington Group Short Set on Functioning), and 124 (19%) of 641 experienced a health-related change in occupation. Factors associated with not recovering were female sex, middle age (40–59 years), two or more comorbidities, and more severe acute illness. The magnitude of the persistent health burden was substantial but only weakly associated with the severity of acute illness. Four clusters were identified with different severities of mental and physical health impairment (n=767): very severe (131 patients, 17%), severe (159, 21%), moderate along with cognitive impairment (127, 17%), and mild (350, 46%). Of the outcomes used in the cluster analysis, all were closely related except for cognitive impairment. Three (3%) of 113 patients in the very severe cluster, nine (7%) of 129 in the severe cluster, 36 (36%) of 99 in the moderate cluster, and 114 (43%) of 267 in the mild cluster reported feeling fully recovered. Persistently elevated serum C-reactive protein was positively associated with cluster severity. Interpretation We identified factors related to not recovering after hospital admission with COVID-19 at 6 months after discharge (eg, female sex, middle age, two or more comorbidities, and more acute severe illness), and four different recovery phenotypes. The severity of physical and mental health impairments were closely related, whereas cognitive health impairments were independent. In clinical care, a proactive approach is needed across the acute severity spectrum, with interdisciplinary working, wide access to COVID-19 holistic clinical services, and the potential to stratify care. Funding UK Research and Innovation and National Institute for Health Research.

Estimation of direct and indirect (i.e. parental and/or sibling) genetic effects on phenotypes is becoming increasingly important. We compare several multivariate methods that utilize summary results statistics from genome-wide association studies to determine how well they estimate direct and indirect genetic effects. Using data from the UK Biobank, we contrast point estimates and standard errors at individual loci compared to those obtained using individual level data. We show that Genomic structural equation modelling (SEM) outperforms the other methods in accurately estimating conditional genetic effects and their standard errors. We apply Genomic SEM to fertility data in the UK Biobank and partition the genetic effect into female and male fertility and a sibling specific effect. We identify a novel locus for fertility and genetic correlations between fertility and educational attainment, risk taking behaviour, autism and subjective well-being. We recommend Genomic SEM be used to partition genetic effects into direct and indirect components when using summary results from genome-wide association studies., Estimating direct and indirect effects of genotypes on phenotypes is important for genetic analyses such as Mendelian randomization. Here the authors compare five different methods to estimate direct and indirect genetic effects using summary results statistics that account for sample overlap.

BackgroundIt is unclear if people with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) (joint, bowel and skin) and on immune modifying therapy have increased risk of serious COVID-19 outcomes.MethodsWith the approval of NHS England we conducted a cohort study, using OpenSAFELY, analysingroutinely-collected primary care data linked to hospital admission, death and previously unavailable hospital prescription data. We used Cox regression (adjusting for confounders) to estimate hazard ratios (HR) comparing risk of COVID-19-death, death/critical care admission, and hospitalisation (March to September 2020) in: 1) people with IMIDs compared to the general population; and 2) people with IMIDs on targeted immune modifying drugs (e.g., biologics) compared to standard systemic treatment (e.g., methotrexate).FindingsWe identified 17,672,065 adults; of 1,163,438 (7%) with IMIDs, 19,119 people received targeted immune modifying drugs, and 200,813 received standard systemics. We saw evidence of increased COVID-19-death (HR 1.23, 95%CI 1.20, 1.27), and COVID-19 hospitalisation (HR 1.32, 95%CI 1.29, 1.35) in individuals with IMIDs overall compared to individuals without IMIDs of the same age, sex, deprivation and smoking status. We saw no evidence of increased COVID-19 deaths with targeted compared to standard systemic treatments (HR 1.03, 95%CI 0.80, 1.33). There was no evidence of increased COVID-19-related death in those prescribed TNF inhibitors, IL-12/23, IL7, IL-6 or JAK inhibitors compared to standard systemics. Rituximab was associated with increased COVID-19 death (HR 1.68, 95%CI 1.11, 2.56); however, this finding may relate to confounding.InterpretationCOVID-19 death and hospitalisation was higher in people with IMIDs. We saw no increased risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes in those on most targeted immune modifying drugs for IMIDs compared to standard systemics.RESEARCH IN CONTEXTEvidence before this studyWe searched PubMed on May 19th, 2021, using the terms “COVID-19”, “SARS-CoV-2” and “rheumatoid arthritis”, “psoriatic arthritis” “ankylosing spondylitis”, “Crohn’s disease” “ulcerative colitis” “hidradenitis suppurativa” and “psoriasis”, to identify primary research articles examining severe COVID-19 outcome risk in individuals with immune-mediated inflammatory diseases (IMIDs) and those on immune modifying therapy. The studies identified (including matched cohort studies and studies in disease-specific registries) were limited by small sample sizes and number of outcomes. Most studies did not show a signal of increased adverse COVID-19 outcomes in those on targeted therapies, with the exception of rituximab. Additionally, disease-specific registries are subject to selection bias and lack denominator populations.Added value of the studyIn our large population-based study of 17 million individuals, including 1 million people with IMIDs and just under 200,000 receiving immune modifying medications, we saw evidence that people with IMIDs had an increased risk of COVID-19-related death compared to the general population after adjusting for potential confounders (age, sex, deprivation, smoking status) (HR 1.23, 95%CI 1.20, 1.27). We saw differences by IMID type, with COVID-19-related death being increased by the most in people with inflammatory joint disease (HR 1.47, 95%CI 1.40, 1.54). We also saw some evidence that those with IMIDs were more likely, compared to the general population, to have COVID-19-related critical care admission/death (HR 1.24, 95%CI 1.21, 1.28) and hospitalisation (HR 1.32, 95%CI 1.29, 1.35).Compared to people with IMIDs taking standard systemics, we saw no evidence of differences in severe COVID-19-related outcomes with TNF inhibitors, IL-17 inhibitors, IL-12/23 inhibitors, IL-6 inhibitors and JAK inhibitors. However, there was some evidence that rituximab was associated with an increased risk of COVID-19-related death (HR 1.68, 95%CI 1.11, 2.56) and death/critical care admission (HR 1.92, 95%CI 1.31, 2.81). We also saw evidence of an increase in COVID-19-related hospital admissions in people prescribed rituximab (HR 1.59, 95%CI 1.16, 2.18) or JAK inhibition (HR 1.81, 95%CI 1.09, 3.01) compared to those on standard systemics, although this could be related to worse underlying health rather than the drugs themselves, and numbers of events were small.This is the first study to our knowledge to use high-cost drug data on medicines supplied by hospitals at a national scale in England (to identify targeted therapies). The availability of these data fills an important gap in the medication record of those with more specialist conditions treated by hospitals creating an important opportunity to generate insights to these conditions and these medicationsImplications of all of the available evidenceOur study offers insights into future risk mitigation strategies and SARS-CoV-2 vaccination priorities for individuals with IMIDs, as it highlights that those with IMIDs and those taking rituximab may be at risk of severe COVID-19 outcomes. Critically, our study does not show a link between most targeted immune modifying medications compared to standard systemics and severe COVID-19 outcomes. However, the increased risk of adverse COVID-19 outcomes that we saw in people with IMIDs and those treated with rituximab merits further study.

Osteoporosis is caused by an imbalance of osteoclasts and osteoblasts, occurring in close proximity to hematopoietic cells in the bone marrow. Recurrent somatic mutations that lead to an expanded population of mutant blood cells is termed clonal hematopoiesis of indeterminate potential (CHIP). Analyzing exome sequencing data from the UK Biobank, we found CHIP to be associated with increased incident osteoporosis diagnoses and decreased bone mineral density. In murine models, hematopoietic-specific mutations in Dnmt3a, the most commonly mutated gene in CHIP, decreased bone mass via increased osteoclastogenesis. Dnmt3a−/− demethylation opened chromatin and altered activity of inflammatory transcription factors. Bone loss was driven by proinflammatory cytokines, including Irf3-NF-κB–mediated IL-20 expression from Dnmt3a mutant macrophages. Increased osteoclastogenesis due to the Dnmt3a mutations was ameliorated by alendronate or IL-20 neutralization. These results demonstrate a novel source of osteoporosis-inducing inflammation.

Background It is suggested amino acids are critical for fetal growth, but analyses assessing causality are lacking. Mendelian randomisation (MR) can be used to examine causal effects under instrumental variable (IV) assumptions. Methods We conducted a two-sample MR study utilizing summary data from genome-wide association studies (GWAS) of amino acids (sample 1, n = 86,507) and of offspring birthweight (sample 2, combined UK Biobank and Early Growth Genetics Consortium, n = 406,063). Seventy-five independent single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) robustly associated with 18 amino acids (p Results There was evidence of positive causal effects of maternal alanine (51.9 g birthweight increase per SD increase in amino acid level, 95% CI: 24.2, 79.5), glutamine (51.3 g, 95% CI: 33.5, 69.0), glycine (10.4 g, 95% CI: 1.3, 19.6) and serine (27.1 g, 95% CI: 11.2, 43.0) on birthweight and inverse causal effects of maternal isoleucine (-109.7 g, 95% CI: -194.6, -24.9) and histidine (-41.1 g, 95% CI: -78.5, -3.7) on birthweight. Sensitivity analyses to explore reverse causality and bias due to horizontal pleiotropy supported our findings. Conclusions Some maternal circulating amino acids have causal effects on birthweight. Key messages MR can be extended to probe effects of maternal nutrition on offspring development.

BackgroundAll patients in England within vaccine priority groups were offered a COVID-19 vaccine by mid-April 2021. Clinical record systems contain codes to denote when such an offer has been declined by a patient (although these can in some cases be entered for a variety of other reasons including vaccination delay, or other administrative issues). We set out to describe the patterns of usage of codes for COVID-19 vaccines being declined.MethodsWith the approval of NHS England and using the full pseudonymised primary care records for 57.9 million NHS patients, we identified all patients in key vaccine priority groups: aged over 50, or over 16 and at increased risk from COVID-19 (Clinically Extremely Vulnerable [CEV] or otherwise “at risk”). We describe the proportion of patients recorded as declining a COVID-19 vaccination for each priority group, and by other clinical and demographic factors; whether patients recorded as “declined” subsequently went on to receive a vaccination; and the distribution of code usage across GP practices.ResultsOf 24.5 million patients in priority groups as of May 25th 2021, 89.2% had received a vaccine, 8.8% had neither a vaccination nor a decline recorded, and 663,033 (2.7%) had a decline code recorded. Of patients with a recorded decline, 125,587 (18.9%) were subsequently vaccinated. Subsequent vaccination was slightly more common in the South Asian population than other ethnicities (e.g. 32.3% vs 22.8%, over 65s). The proportion of declining-unvaccinated patients varied strongly with ethnicity (Black 15.3%, South Asian 5.6%, White 1.5% in over 80s); and was higher in patients from more deprived areas. COVID-19 vaccine decline codes were present in almost all practices (98.8%), but with wide variation between practices in rates of usage. Among all priority groups, declining-unvaccinated status was most common in CEV (3.3%).ConclusionsClinical codes indicative of COVID-19 vaccinations being declined are widely used in English general practice. They are substantially more common among Black and South Asian patients, and patients from more deprived areas. There is a need for more detailed survey and/or qualitative research with patients and clinicians to determine the most common reasons for these recorded declines.

Maternal genetic effects can be defined as the effect of a mother’s genotype on the phenotype of her offspring, independent of the offspring’s genotype. Maternal genetic effects can act via the intrauterine environment during pregnancy and/or via the postnatal environment. In this manuscript, we present a simple extension to the basic adoption design that uses structural equation modelling (SEM) to partition maternal genetic effects into prenatal and postnatal effects. We assume that in biological families, offspring phenotypes are influenced prenatally by their mother’s genotype and postnatally by both parents’ genotypes, whereas adopted individuals’ phenotypes are influenced prenatally by their biological mother’s genotype and postnatally by their adoptive parents’ genotypes. Our SEM framework allows us to model the (potentially) unobserved genotypes of biological and adoptive parents as latent variables, permitting us in principle to leverage the thousands of adopted singleton individuals in the UK Biobank. We examine the power, utility and type I error rate of our model using simulations and asymptotic power calculations. We apply our model to polygenic scores of educational attainment and birth weight associated variants, in up to 5178 adopted singletons, 983 trios, 3650 mother-offspring pairs, 1665 father-offspring pairs and 350330 singletons from the UK Biobank. Our results show the expected pattern of maternal genetic effects on offspring birth weight, but unexpectedly large prenatal maternal genetic effects on offspring educational attainment. Sensitivity and simulation analyses suggest this result may be at least partially due to adopted individuals in the UK Biobank being raised by their biological relatives. We show that accurate modelling of these sorts of cryptic relationships is sufficient to bring type I error rate under control and produce unbiased estimates of prenatal and postnatal maternal genetic effects. We conclude that there would be considerable value in following up adopted individuals in the UK Biobank to determine whether they were raised by their biological relatives, and if so, to precisely ascertain the nature of these relationships. These adopted individuals could then be incorporated into informative statistical genetics models like the one described in our manuscript to further elucidate the genetic architecture of complex traits and diseases.

Mendelian randomization (MR) is an epidemiological technique for estimating causal relationships using observational data, which has become very popular in recent years following publication of a seminal article by Smith and Ebrahim in 2003 [1]. MR is a specific form of “instrumental variables” (IV) analysis (the latter being first invented by Phillip and Sewall Wright in the 1920s [2]) that uses genetic variants to proxy a modifiable variable (which we term the “exposure” variable here) in order to estimate the causal relationship between the exposure and an outcome of interest. To understand how this causal inference technique works, it is useful to think of MR as similar to a “natural” randomized controlled trial [3] where individuals are randomly assigned to groups based on the alleles that they inherit from their parents (Fig 1). MR takes advantage of Mendel’s laws of segregation and independent assortment, which state that offspring inherit alleles randomly from their parents and randomly with respect to other genes in the genome (with certain exceptions [1]). Therefore, genetic variants that are related to an exposure of interest can be used to proxy the part of the exposure variable that is independent of possible confounding influences from the environment and other traits. Providing several assumptions are satisfied (see below), and the principle of gene–environment equivalence (i.e., perturbing the exposure genetically has the same effect as perturbing the exposure by other means), statistical association between the genetic variant and the outcome is indicative of a causal relationship between the exposure and the outcome and can be used to estimate the magnitude of the causal relationship using IV methods. Although originally developed as a way to estimate causal relationships between modifiable environmental exposures and medically relevant outcomes, in recent years, MR has been utilized in many other situations including studies of molecular biomarkers, in pharmacogenetics, in the social sciences, and in other discplines that use observational frameworks [4,5]. Open in a separate window Fig 1 Similarities between the MR study design and a randomized controlled trial. MR, mendelian randomization.

National guidance was issued during the COVID-19 pandemic to switch patients on warfarin to direct oral anticoagulants (DOACs) where appropriate as these require less frequent blood testing. DOACs are not recommended for patients with mechanical heart valves. We conducted a retrospective cohort study of DOAC prescribing in people with a record of a mechanical heart valve between September 2019 and May 2021, and describe the characteristics of this population. We identified 15,457 individuals with a mechanical heart valve recorded in their records, of whom 1058 (6.8%) had been prescribed a DOAC during the study period. 767 individuals with a record of a mechanical heart valve were currently prescribed a DOAC as of May 31st 2021. This is suggestive of inappropriate prescribing of DOACs in individuals with mechanical heart valves. Direct alerts have been issued to clinicians through their EHR software informing the issue. We show that the OpenSAFELY platform can be used for rapid audit and feedback to mitigate the indirect health impacts of COVID-19 on the NHS. We will monitor changes in prescribing for this risk group over the following months.

BackgroundThere is concern about medium to long-term adverse outcomes following acute COVID-19, but little relevant evidence exists. We aimed to investigate whether risks of hospital admission and death, overall and by specific cause, are raised following discharge from a COVID-19 hospitalisation.Methods and FindingsWorking on behalf of NHS-England, we used linked primary care and hospital data in OpenSAFELY to compare risks of hospital admission and death, overall and by specific cause, between people discharged from COVID-19 hospitalisation (February-December 2020), and (i) demographically-matched controls from the 2019 general population; (ii) people discharged from influenza hospitalisation in 2017-19. We used Cox regression adjusted for personal and clinical characteristics.24,673 post-discharge COVID-19 patients, 123,362 general population controls, and 16,058 influenza controls were followed for ≤315 days. Overall risk of hospitalisation or death (30968 events) was higher in the COVID-19 group than general population controls (adjusted-HR 2.23, 2.14-2.31) but similar to the influenza group (adjusted-HR 0.94, 0.91-0.98). All-cause mortality (7439 events) was highest in the COVID-19 group (adjusted-HR 4.97, 4.58-5.40 vs general population controls and 1.73, 1.60-1.87 vs influenza controls). Risks for cause-specific outcomes were higher in COVID-19 survivors than general population controls, and largely comparable between COVID-19 and influenza patients. However, COVID-19 patients were more likely than influenza patients to be readmitted/die due to their initial infection/other lower respiratory tract infection (adjusted-HR 1.37, 1.22-1.54), and to experience mental health or cognitive-related admission/death (adjusted-HR 1.36, 1.01-2.83); in particular, COVID-19 survivors with pre-existing dementia had higher risk of dementia death. One limitation of our study is that reasons for hospitalisation/death may have been misclassified in some cases due to inconsistent use of codes.ConclusionsPeople discharged from a COVID-19 hospital admission had markedly higher risks for rehospitalisation and death than the general population, suggesting a substantial extra burden on healthcare. Most risks were similar to those observed after influenza hospitalisations; but COVID-19 patients had higher risks of all-cause mortality, readmissions/death due to the initial infection, and dementia death, highlighting the importance of post-discharge monitoring.

BackgroundResidents in care homes have been severely impacted by the COVID-19 pandemic. We describe trends in risk of mortality among care home residents compared to residents in private homes in England.MethodsOn behalf of NHS England, we used OpenSAFELY-TPP, an analytics platform running across the linked electronic health records of approximately a third of the English population, to calculate monthly age-standardised risks of death due to all causes and COVID-19 among adults aged >=65 years between 1/2/2019 and 31/03/2021. Care home residents were identified using linkage to the Care and Quality Commission.FindingsWe included 4,329,078 people aged 65 years or older on the 1st of February 2019, 2.2% of whom were classified as residing in a care or nursing home. Age-standardised mortality risks were approximately 10 times higher among care home residents compared to non-residents in February 2019 residents (CMF = 10.59, 95%CI = 9.51, 11.81 among women, CMF = 10.82, 95%CI = 9.89, 11.84 among men). This increased to more than 17 times in April 2020 (CMF = 17.52, 95%CI = 16.38, 18.74 among women, CMF = 18.12, 95%CI = 17.17 – 19.12 among men) before returning to pre-pandemic levels in June 2020. CMFs did not increase during the second wave, despite a rise in the absolute age-standardised COVID-19 mortality risks.InterpretationThe first COVID-19 wave had a disproportionate impact on care home residents in England compared to older private home residents. A degree of immunity, improved protective measures or changes in the underlying frailty of the populations may explain the lack of an increase in the relative mortality risks during the second wave. The care home population should be prioritised for measures aimed at controlling the spread of COVID-19.FundingMedical Research Council MR/V015737/1

Understanding and controlling the rheology of polymeric complex fluids that are pushed out-of-equilibrium is a fundamental problem in both industry and biology. For example, to package, repair, and replicate DNA, cells use enzymes to constantly manipulate DNA topology, length, and structure. Inspired by this feat, here we engineer and study DNA-based complex fluids that undergo enzymatically-driven topological and architectural alterations via restriction endonuclease (RE) reactions. We show that these systems display time-dependent rheological properties that depend on the concentrations and properties of the comprising DNA and REs. Through time-resolved microrheology experiments and Brownian Dynamics simulations, we show that conversion of supercoiled to linear DNA topology leads to a monotonic increase in viscosity. On the other hand, the viscosity of entangled linear DNA undergoing fragmentation displays a universal decrease that we rationalise using living polymer theory. Finally, to showcase the tunability of these behaviours, we design a DNA fluid that exhibits a time-dependent increase, followed by a temporally-gated decrease, of its viscosity. Our results present a class of polymeric fluids that leverage naturally occurring enzymes to drive diverse time-varying rheology by performing architectural alterations to the constituents.

Background A lack of genetic data across generations makes transgenerational Mendelian randomization (MR) difficult. We used UK Biobank and a novel proxy gene-by-environment MR to investigate effects of maternal smoking heaviness in pregnancy on offspring health, using participants’ (generation one: G1) genotype (rs16969968 in CHRNA5) as a proxy for their mothers’ (G0) genotype. Methods We validated this approach by replicating an established effect of maternal smoking heaviness on offspring birthweight. Then we applied this approach to explore effects of maternal (G0) smoking heaviness on offspring (G1) later life outcomes and on birthweight of G1 women’s children (G2). Results Each additional smoking-increasing allele in offspring (G1) was associated with a 0.018 [95% confidence interval (CI): -0.026, -0.009] kg lower G1 birthweight in maternal (G0) smoking stratum, but no meaningful effect (-0.002 kg; 95% CI: -0.008, 0.003) in maternal non-smoking stratum (interaction P-value = 0.004). The differences in associations of rs16969968 with grandchild’s (G2) birthweight between grandmothers (G0) who did, versus did not, smoke were heterogeneous (interaction P-value = 0.042) among mothers (G1) who did (-0.020 kg/allele; 95% CI: -0.044, 0.003), versus did not (0.007 kg/allele; 95% CI: -0.005, 0.020), smoke in pregnancy. Conclusions Our study demonstrated how offspring genotype can be used to proxy for the mother’s genotype in gene-by-environment MR. We confirmed the causal effect of maternal (G0) smoking on offspring (G1) birthweight, but found little evidence of an effect on G1 longer-term health outcomes. For grandchild’s (G2) birthweight, the effect of grandmother’s (G0) smoking heaviness in pregnancy may be modulated by maternal (G1) smoking status in pregnancy.

Significant interindividual variation exists among “normal” human humoral immune responses to viral infection. However, although the genetic etiology of immunologic extremes such as primary immunodeficiency has been well characterized, little is known about the genetics of normal interindividual variation in immune response. The classical twin design, which compares the phenotypic similarity between monozygotic (MZ) twin pairs and dizygotic (DZ) twin pairs, can be used to estimate the proportion of interindividual variation due to genetic factors. For example, the classical twin design has been used to demonstrate that antibody response to vaccination against certain pathogens is likely to be influenced by genetic factors.1 The present study used twin and sibling data to estimate the genetic and environmental determinants of antibody titers to 6 common human viruses: EBV, Coxsackie B virus (CVB), parvovirus B-19 (PV-B19), herpes simplex virus 1 (HSV-1), human herpes virus 6 (HHV-6), and cytomegalovirus (CMV). Although these viruses usually cause relatively mild symptoms or are asymptomatic, many are also observationally associated with the development of more severe diseases, including autoimmune diseases such as multiple sclerosis, rheumatoid arthritis, type 1 diabetes, and systemic lupus erythematosus.2

Observations that insulin and adiponectin levels are related to cortical bone size in adolescents, independently of body composition, suggest factors related to fat metabolism directly influence skeletal development. To explore this question, we examined associations between a metabolic screen focusing on fat metabolism, and peripheral quantitative computed tomography (pQCT) measures of the mid-tibia, in 15-year-olds from the Avon Longitudinal Study of Parents and Children. Metabolic profiles were generated by proton nuclear magnetic resonance spectroscopy, from blood samples obtained at the same time as pQCT scans. Ordinary least squares linear regression was used to investigate relationships between metabolic measures and periosteal circumference (PC), cortical thickness (CT), and cortical bone mineral density (BMDC). Metabolic profiles yielded 22 independent components following principal component analysis (PCA), giving a Bonferroni-adjusted threshold for statistical significance of p = 0.002. Data were available in 1121 subjects (487 males), mean age 15 years. Several metabolites related to lipid and cholesterol metabolism were associated with PC, CT, and BMDC after adjustment for age, sex, and Tanner stage. After additional adjustment for height, fat, and lean mass, only the association between citrate and BMDC remained below the Bonferroni-significant threshold (β = –0.14 [–0.18, –0.09]) (β represents a standardized coefficient). Citrate also showed evidence of association with PC (β = 0.06 [0.03, 0.10]) and strength strain index (SSI; β = 0.04 [0.01, 0.08]). Subsequently, we investigated whether these relationships were explained by increased bone resorption. Citrate was strongly related to serum β-C-telopeptides of type I collagen (β-CTX) (β = 0.20 [0.16, 0.23]). After additional adjustment for β-CTX the above associations between citrate and BMDC (β = –0.04 [–0.08, 0.01]), PC (β = 0.03 [–0.01, 0.07]) and SSI (β = 0.03 [–0.01, 0.07]) were no longer observed. We conclude that in adolescents, circulating levels of citrate are inversely related to BMDC and positively related to PC, reflecting associations with higher bone turnover. Further studies are justified to elucidate possible contributions of citrate, a constituent of bone matrix, to bone resorption and cortical density.

We study automorphism groups of sparse graphs from the viewpoint of topological dynamics and the Kechris, Pestov, Todor\v{c}evi\'c correspondence. We investigate amenable and extremely amenable subgroups of these groups using the space of orientations of the graph and results from structural Ramsey theory. Resolving one of the open questions in the area, we show that Hrushovski's example of an $\omega$-categorical sparse graph has no $\omega$-categorical expansion with extremely amenable automorphism group., Comment: 41 pages, 2 figures, minor revision

Background: Lung function is highly heritable and differs between the sexes throughout life. However, little is known about sex-differential genetic effects on lung function. We aimed to conduct the first genome-wide genotype-by-sex interaction study on lung function to identify genetic effects that differ between males and females. Methods: We tested for interactions between 7,745,864 variants and sex on spirometry-based measures of lung function in UK Biobank (N=303,612), and sought replication in 75,696 independent individuals from the SpiroMeta consortium. Results: Five independent single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) showed genome-wide significant (P-8) interactions with sex on lung function, and 21 showed suggestive interactions (P-6). The strongest signal, from rs7697189 (chr4:145436894) on forced expiratory volume in 1 second (FEV1) (P=3.15x10-15), was replicated (P=0.016) in SpiroMeta. The C allele increased FEV1 more in males (untransformed FEV1 β=0.028 [SE 0.0022] litres) than females (β=0.009 [SE 0.0014] litres), and this effect was not accounted for by differential effects on height, smoking or pubertal age. rs7697189 resides upstream of the hedgehog-interacting protein (HHIP) gene and was previously associated with lung function and HHIP lung expression. We found HHIP expression was significantly different between the sexes (P=6.90x10-6), but we could not detect sex differential effects of rs7697189 on expression. Conclusions: We identified a novel genotype-by-sex interaction at a putative enhancer region upstream of the HHIP gene. Establishing the mechanism by which HHIP SNPs have different effects on lung function in males and females will be important for our understanding of lung health and diseases in both sexes.