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This article investigates the links between commodity price bubbles and macroeconomic factors, with an application to the agricultural commodity markets in China from 2006 to 2014. Price bubbles are identified using a newly developed, recursive right-tailed unit root test. A Zero-inflated Poisson model is used to analyze the factors contributing to bubbles. Results show that (a) there were speculative bubbles in most Chinese agricultural commodity futures markets during the sample period, though their presence was infrequent; (b) economic growth, money supply, and inflation have positive effects on bubble occurrences, while interest rates have a negative effect; and (c) among all macroeconomic factors considered, economic growth and money supply have the greatest impact in triggering bubbles. Our findings shed new light on the nature and formation of bubbles in the Chinese agricultural commodity markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose Domestic demand for walnuts has been on the rise for the last decades. Consumption outstrips domestic production capacities, which led to increasing prices until recently. Small-scale farmers are at the centre of walnut tree planting and walnut collection efforts. Farmers are now integrated into rapidly expanding agrifood value chains. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the walnut value chain originating in Yunnan (the dominant producer of walnuts in China). The authors are especially interested in the position of small-scale farmers in the chain and the factors affecting the price that they receive.Design/methodology/approach Price and intra-chain governance information were collected through structured interviews with value chain actors like certified and conventional small-scale farmers, traders, processors, food manufacturers and wholesalers. The resultant price data set was analysed using a multiple regression analysis.Findings Timing of harvest, distance to market and sales volume are correlated with the village-level price. Farmers are in a market governance segment of the chain. Lead firms (e.g. supermarkets) are price-setters and determine the value distribution, with farmers receiving a smaller share relative to downstream actors’ shares.Research limitations/implications Improved connectivity to markets, transparency of standards and price (formation), processing and certification could improve farmers’ profits.Originality/value The authors contribute to the growing literature of value chain studies focussing on farmers’ integration into food systems at different scales. The authors investigated the price determinants at the village level and additionally provide information on an organic marketing arrangement. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]