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Background: Despite longstanding epidemiologic data on the association between increased serum triglycerides and cardiovascular events, the exact level at which risk begins to rise is unclear. The Working Group on Uric Acid and Cardiovascular Risk of the Italian Society of Hypertension has conceived a protocol aimed at searching for the prognostic cutoff value of triglycerides in predicting cardiovascular events in a large regional-based Italian cohort., Methods and Results: Among 14 189 subjects aged 18 to 95 years followed-up for 11.2 (5.3-13.2) years, the prognostic cutoff value of triglycerides, able to discriminate combined cardiovascular events, was identified by means of receiver operating characteristic curve. The conventional (150 mg/dL) and the prognostic cutoff values of triglycerides were used as independent predictors in separate multivariable Cox regression models adjusted for age, sex, body mass index, total and high-density lipoprotein cholesterol, serum uric acid, arterial hypertension, diabetes, chronic renal disease, smoking habit, and use of antihypertensive and lipid-lowering drugs. During 139 375 person-years of follow-up, 1601 participants experienced cardiovascular events. Receiver operating characteristic curve showed that 89 mg/dL (95% CI, 75.8-103.3, sensitivity 76.6, specificity 34.1, P <0.0001) was the prognostic cutoff value for cardiovascular events. Both cutoff values of triglycerides, the conventional and the newly identified, were accepted as multivariate predictors in separate Cox analyses, the hazard ratios being 1.211 (95% CI, 1.063-1.378, P =0.004) and 1.150 (95% CI, 1.021-1.295, P =0.02), respectively., Conclusions: Lower (89 mg/dL) than conventional (150 mg/dL) prognostic cutoff value of triglycerides for cardiovascular events does exist and is associated with increased cardiovascular risk in an Italian cohort.

Background: Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) predicts cardiovascular events (CVEs) and total mortality (TM), but previous studies proposing actionable PWV thresholds have limited generalizability. This individual-participant meta-analysis is aimed at defining, testing calibration, and validating an outcome-driven threshold for PWV, using 2 populations studies, respectively, for derivation IDCARS (International Database of Central Arterial Properties for Risk Stratification) and replication MONICA (Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease Health Survey - Copenhagen)., Methods: A risk-carrying PWV threshold for CVE and TM was defined by multivariable Cox regression, using stepwise increasing PWV thresholds and by determining the threshold yielding a 5-year risk equivalent with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg. The predictive performance of the PWV threshold was assessed by computing the integrated discrimination improvement and the net reclassification improvement., Results: In well-calibrated models in IDCARS, the risk-carrying PWV thresholds converged at 9 m/s (10 m/s considering the anatomic pulse wave travel distance). With full adjustments applied, the threshold predicted CVE (hazard ratio [CI]: 1.68 [1.15-2.45]) and TM (1.61 [1.01-2.55]) in IDCARS and in MONICA (1.40 [1.09-1.79] and 1.55 [1.23-1.95]). In IDCARS and MONICA, the predictive accuracy of the threshold for both end points was ≈0.75. Integrated discrimination improvement was significant for TM in IDCARS and for both TM and CVE in MONICA, whereas net reclassification improvement was not for any outcome., Conclusions: PWV integrates multiple risk factors into a single variable and might replace a large panel of traditional risk factors. Exceeding the outcome-driven PWV threshold should motivate clinicians to stringent management of risk factors, in particular hypertension, which over a person's lifetime causes stiffening of the elastic arteries as waypoint to CVE and death., Competing Interests: Disclosures None.

Background: Although the relation of salt intake with blood pressure (BP) is linear, it is U-shaped for mortality and cardiovascular disease (CVD). This individual-participant meta-analysis explored whether the relation of hypertension, death or CVD with 24-h urinary sodium excretion (UVNA) or sodium-to-potassium (UNAK) ratio was modified by birth weight., Methods: Families were randomly enrolled in the Flemish Study on Genes, Environment and Health Outcomes (1985-2004) and the European Project on Genes in Hypertension (1999-2001). Categories of birth weight, UVNA and UNAK (≤2500, >2500-4000, >4000 g; <2.3, 2.3-4.6 and >4.6 g; and <1, 1-2, >2, respectively) were coded using deviation-from-mean coding and analyzed by Kaplan-Meier survival functions and linear and Cox regression., Results: The study population was subdivided into the Outcome ( n  = 1945), Hypertension ( n  = 1460) and Blood Pressure cohorts ( n  = 1039) to analyze the incidence of mortality and cardiovascular endpoints, hypertension and BP changes as function of UVNA changes. The prevalence of low/medium/high birth weight in the Outcome cohort was 5.8/84.5/9.7%. Over 16.7 years (median), rates were 4.9, 8 and 27.1% for mortality, CVD and hypertension, respectively, but were not associated with birth weight. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios were not significant for any endpoint in any of the birth weight, UVNA and UNAK strata. Adult body weight tracked with birth weight ( P  < 0.0001). The partial r in the low-birth-weight group associating changes from baseline to follow-up in UVNA and SBP was 0.68 ( P  = 0.023) but not significant in other birth weight groups., Conclusion: This study did not substantiate its prior hypothesis but showed tracking of adult with birth weight and suggest that low birth weight increases salt sensitivity., (Copyright © 2023 The Author(s). Published by Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc.)

Background: End-stage renal disease is associated with a high risk of cardiovascular events. It is unknown, however, whether mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to coronary heart disease (CHD) and stroke., Methods: Observational analyses were conducted using individual-level data from 4 population data sources (Emerging Risk Factors Collaboration, EPIC-CVD [European Prospective Investigation into Cancer and Nutrition-Cardiovascular Disease Study], Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank), comprising 648 135 participants with no history of cardiovascular disease or diabetes at baseline, yielding 42 858 and 15 693 incident CHD and stroke events, respectively, during 6.8 million person-years of follow-up. Using a genetic risk score of 218 variants for estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR), we conducted Mendelian randomization analyses involving 413 718 participants (25 917 CHD and 8622 strokes) in EPIC-CVD, Million Veteran Program, and UK Biobank., Results: There were U-shaped observational associations of creatinine-based eGFR with CHD and stroke, with higher risk in participants with eGFR values <60 or >105 mL·min -1 ·1.73 m -2 , compared with those with eGFR between 60 and 105 mL·min -1 ·1.73 m -2 . Mendelian randomization analyses for CHD showed an association among participants with eGFR <60 mL·min -1 ·1.73 m -2 , with a 14% (95% CI, 3%-27%) higher CHD risk per 5 mL·min -1 ·1.73 m -2 lower genetically predicted eGFR, but not for those with eGFR >105 mL·min -1 ·1.73 m -2 . Results were not materially different after adjustment for factors associated with the eGFR genetic risk score, such as lipoprotein(a), triglycerides, hemoglobin A1c, and blood pressure. Mendelian randomization results for stroke were nonsignificant but broadly similar to those for CHD., Conclusions: In people without manifest cardiovascular disease or diabetes, mild-to-moderate kidney dysfunction is causally related to risk of CHD, highlighting the potential value of preventive approaches that preserve and modulate kidney function.

Background: The role of pulse pressure (PP) 'widening' at older and younger age as a cardiovascular risk factor is still controversial. Mean PP, as determined from repeated blood pressure (BP) readings, can be expressed as a sum of two components: 'elastic PP' (elPP) and 'stiffening PP' (stPP) associated, respectively, with stiffness at the diastole and its relative change during the systole. We investigated the association of 24-h ambulatory PP, elPP, and stPP ('PP variables') with mortality and composite cardiovascular events in different age classes., Method: Longitudinal population-based cohort study of adults with baseline observations that included 24-h ambulatory BP. Age classes were age 40 or less, 40-50, 50-60, 60-70, and over 70 years. Co-primary endpoints were total mortality and composite cardiovascular events. The relative risk expressed by hazard ratio per 1SD increase for each of the PP variables was calculated from multivariable-adjusted Cox regression models., Results: The 11 848 participants from 13 cohorts (age 53 ± 16 years, 50% men) were followed for up for 13.7 ± 6.7 years. A total of 2946 participants died (18.1 per 1000 person-years) and 2093 experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event (12.9 per 1000 person-years). Mean PP, elPP, and stPP were, respectively, 49.7, 43.5, and 6.2 mmHg, and elPP and stPP were uncorrelated ( r  = -0.07). At age 50-60 years, all PP variables displayed association with risk for almost all outcomes. From age over 60 years to age over 70 years, hazard ratios of of PP and elPP were similar and decreased gradually but differently for pulse rate lower than or higher than 70 bpm, whereas stPP lacked predictive power in most cases. For age 40 years or less, elPP showed protective power for coronary events, whereas stPP and PP predicted stroke events. Adjusted and unadjusted hazard ratio variations were similar over the entire age range., Conclusion: This study provides a new basis for associating PP components with outcome and arterial properties in different age groups and at different pulse rates for both old and young age. The similarity between adjusted and unadjusted hazard ratios supports the clinical usefulness of PP components but further studies are needed to assess the prognostic significance of the PP components, especially at the young age., (Copyright © 2022 Wolters Kluwer Health, Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To address to what extent central hemodynamic measurements, improve risk stratification, and determine outcome-based diagnostic thresholds, we constructed the International Database of Central Arterial Properties for Risk Stratification (IDCARS), allowing a participant-level meta-analysis. The purpose of this article was to describe the characteristics of IDCARS participants and to highlight research perspectives., Methods: Longitudinal or cross-sectional cohort studies with central blood pressure measured with the SphygmoCor devices and software were included., Results: The database included 10,930 subjects (54.8% women; median age 46.0 years) from 13 studies in Europe, Africa, Asia, and South America. The prevalence of office hypertension was 4,446 (40.1%), of which 2,713 (61.0%) were treated, and of diabetes mellitus was 629 (5.8%). The peripheral and central systolic/diastolic blood pressure averaged 129.5/78.7 mm Hg and 118.2/79.7 mm Hg, respectively. Mean aortic pulse wave velocity was 7.3 m per seconds. Among 6,871 participants enrolled in 9 longitudinal studies, the median follow-up was 4.2 years (5th-95th percentile interval, 1.3-12.2 years). During 38,957 person-years of follow-up, 339 participants experienced a composite cardiovascular event and 212 died, 67 of cardiovascular disease., Conclusions: IDCARS will provide a unique opportunity to investigate hypotheses on central hemodynamic measurements that could not reliably be studied in individual studies. The results of these analyses might inform guidelines and be of help to clinicians involved in the management of patients with suspected or established hypertension., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of American Journal of Hypertension, Ltd.)

Major adverse cardiovascular events are closely associated with 24-hour blood pressure (BP). We determined outcome-driven thresholds for 24-hour mean arterial pressure (MAP), a BP index estimated by oscillometric devices. We assessed the association of major adverse cardiovascular events with 24-hour MAP, systolic BP (SBP), and diastolic BP (DBP) in a population-based cohort (n=11 596). Statistics included multivariable Cox regression and the generalized R 2 statistic to test model fit. Baseline office and 24-hour MAP averaged 97.4 and 90.4 mm Hg. Over 13.6 years (median), 2034 major adverse cardiovascular events occurred. Twenty-four-hour MAP levels of <90 (normotension, n=6183), 90 to <92 (elevated MAP, n=909), 92 to <96 (stage-1 hypertension, n=1544), and ≥96 (stage-2 hypertension, n=2960) mm Hg yielded equivalent 10-year major adverse cardiovascular events risks as office MAP categorized using 2017 American thresholds for office SBP and DBP. Compared with 24-hour MAP normotension, hazard ratios were 0.96 (95% CI, 0.80-1.16), 1.32 (1.15-1.51), and 1.77 (1.59-1.97), for elevated and stage-1 and stage-2 hypertensive MAP. On top of 24-hour MAP, higher 24-hour SBP increased, whereas higher 24-hour DBP attenuated risk ( P <0.001). Considering the 24-hour measurements, R 2 statistics were similar for SBP (1.34) and MAP (1.28), lower for DBP than for MAP (0.47), and reduced to null, if the base model included SBP and DBP; if the ambulatory BP indexes were dichotomized according to the 2017 American guideline and the proposed 92 mm Hg for MAP, the R 2 values were 0.71, 0.89, 0.32, and 0.10, respectively. In conclusion, the clinical application of 24-hour MAP thresholds in conjunction with SBP and DBP refines risk estimates.

Pulsatile blood pressure (BP) confers cardiovascular risk. Whether associations of cardiovascular end points are tighter for central systolic BP (cSBP) than peripheral systolic BP (pSBP) or central pulse pressure (cPP) than peripheral pulse pressure (pPP) is uncertain. Among 5608 participants (54.1% women; mean age, 54.2 years) enrolled in nine studies, median follow-up was 4.1 years. cSBP and cPP, estimated tonometrically from the radial waveform, averaged 123.7 and 42.5 mm Hg, and pSBP and pPP 134.1 and 53.9 mm Hg. The primary composite cardiovascular end point occurred in 255 participants (4.5%). Across fourths of the cPP distribution, rates increased exponentially (4.1, 5.0, 7.3, and 22.0 per 1000 person-years) with comparable estimates for cSBP, pSBP, and pPP. The multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios, expressing the risk per 1-SD increment in BP, were 1.50 (95% CI, 1.33-1.70) for cSBP, 1.36 (95% CI, 1.19-1.54) for cPP, 1.49 (95% CI, 1.33-1.67) for pSBP, and 1.34 (95% CI, 1.19-1.51) for pPP ( P <0.001). Further adjustment of cSBP and cPP, respectively, for pSBP and pPP, and vice versa, removed the significance of all hazard ratios. Adding cSBP, cPP, pSBP, pPP to a base model including covariables increased the model fit ( P <0.001) with generalized R 2 increments ranging from 0.37% to 0.74% but adding a second BP to a model including already one did not. Analyses of the secondary end points, including total mortality (204 deaths), coronary end points (109) and strokes (89), and various sensitivity analyses produced consistent results. In conclusion, associations of the primary and secondary end points with SBP and pulse pressure were not stronger if BP was measured centrally compared with peripherally.

Participant-level meta-analyses assessed the age-specific relevance of office blood pressure to cardiovascular complications, but this information is lacking for out-of-office blood pressure. At baseline, daytime ambulatory (n=12 624) or home (n=5297) blood pressure were measured in 17 921 participants (51.3% women; mean age, 54.2 years) from 17 population cohorts. Subsequently, mortality and cardiovascular events were recorded. Using multivariable Cox regression, floating absolute risk was computed across 4 age bands (≤60, 61-70, 71-80, and >80 years). Over 236 491 person-years, 3855 people died and 2942 cardiovascular events occurred. From levels as low as 110/65 mm Hg, risk log-linearly increased with higher out-of-office systolic/diastolic blood pressure. From the youngest to the oldest age group, rates expressed per 1000 person-years increased ( P <0.001) from 4.4 (95% CI, 4.0-4.7) to 86.3 (76.1-96.5) for all-cause mortality and from 4.1 (3.9-4.6) to 59.8 (51.0-68.7) for cardiovascular events, whereas hazard ratios per 20-mm Hg increment in systolic out-of-office blood pressure decreased ( P ≤0.0033) from 1.42 (1.19-1.69) to 1.09 (1.05-1.12) and from 1.70 (1.51-1.92) to 1.12 (1.07-1.17), respectively. These age-related trends were similar for out-of-office diastolic pressure and were generally consistent in both sexes and across ethnicities. In conclusion, adverse outcomes were directly associated with out-of-office blood pressure in adults. At young age, the absolute risk associated with out-of-office blood pressure was low, but relative risk high, whereas with advancing age relative risk decreased and absolute risk increased. These observations highlight the need of a lifecourse approach for the management of hypertension.

Experts proposed blood pressure (BP) load derived from 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings as a more accurate predictor of outcome than level, in particular in normotensive people. We analyzed 8711 subjects (mean age, 54.8 years; 47.0% women) randomly recruited from 10 populations. We expressed BP load as percentage (%) of systolic/diastolic readings ≥135/≥85 mm Hg and ≥120/≥70 mm Hg during day and night, respectively, or as the area under the BP curve (mm Hg×h) using the same ceiling values. During a period of 10.7 years (median), 1284 participants died and 1109 experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular end point. In multivariable-adjusted models, the risk of cardiovascular complications gradually increased across deciles of BP level and load (P<0.001), but BP load did not substantially refine risk prediction based on 24-hour systolic or diastolic BP level (generalized R(2) statistic ≤0.294%; net reclassification improvement ≤0.28%; integrated discrimination improvement ≤0.001%). Systolic/diastolic BP load of 40.0/42.3% or 91.8/73.6 mm Hg×h conferred a 10-year risk of a composite cardiovascular end point similar to a 24-hour systolic/diastolic BP of 130/80 mm Hg. In analyses dichotomized according to these thresholds, increased BP load did not refine risk prediction in the whole study population (R(2)≤0.051) or in untreated participants with 24-hour ambulatory normotension (R(2)≤0.034). In conclusion, BP load does not improve risk stratification based on 24-hour BP level. This also applies to subjects with normal 24-hour BP for whom BP load was proposed to be particularly useful in risk stratification.

Background: The double product (DP), consisting of the systolic blood pressure (SBP) multiplied by the pulse rate (PR), is an index of myocardial oxygen consumption, but its prognostic value in the general population remains unknown., Methods: We recorded health outcomes in 9,937 subjects (median age, 53.2 years; 47.3% women) randomly recruited from 11 populations and enrolled in the International Database on Ambulatory blood pressure in relation to Cardiovascular Outcomes (IDACO) study. We obtained the SBP, PR, and DP for these subjects as determined through 24-hour ambulatory monitoring., Results: Over a median period of 11.0 years, 1,388 of the 9,937 study subjects died, of whom 536 and 794, respectively, died of cardiovascular (CV) and non-CV causes, and a further 1,161, 658, 494, and 465 subjects, respectively, experienced a CV, cardiac, coronary, or cerebrovascular event. In multivariate-adjusted Cox models, not including SBP and PR, DP predicted total, CV, and non-CV mortality (standardized hazard ratio [HR], ≥ 1.10; P ≤ 0.02), and all CV, cardiac, coronary, and stroke events (HR, ≥ 1.21; P < 0.0001). For CV mortality (HR, 1.34 vs. 1.30; P = 0.71) and coronary events (1.28 vs. 1.21; P = 0.26), SBP and the DP were equally predictive. As compared with DP, SBP was a stronger predictor of all CV events (1.39 vs. 1.27; P = 0.002) and stroke (1.61 vs. 1.36; P < 0.0001), and a slightly stronger predictor of cardiac events (1.32 vs. 1.22; P = 0.06). In fully adjusted models, including both SBP and PR, the predictive value of DP disappeared for fatal endpoints (P ≥ 0.07), coronary events (P = 0.06), and stroke (P = 0.12), or DP was even inversely associated with the risk of all CV and cardiac events (both P ≤ 0.01)., Conclusion: In the general population, we did not observe DP to add to risk stratification over and beyond SBP and PR.

No previous study addressed whether in the general population estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR [Chronic Kidney Disease Epidemiology Collaboration formula]) adds to the prediction of cardiovascular outcome over and beyond ambulatory blood pressure. We recorded health outcomes in 5322 subjects (median age, 51.8 years; 43.1% women) randomly recruited from 11 populations, who had baseline measurements of 24-hour ambulatory blood pressure (ABP(24)) and eGFR. We computed hazard ratios using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Median follow-up was 9.3 years. In fully adjusted models, which included both ABP(24) and eGFR, ABP(24) predicted (P≤0.008) both total (513 deaths) and cardiovascular (206) mortality; eGFR only predicted cardiovascular mortality (P=0.012). Furthermore, ABP(24) predicted (P≤0.0056) fatal combined with nonfatal events as a result of all cardiovascular causes (555 events), cardiac disease (335 events), or stroke (218 events), whereas eGFR only predicted the composite cardiovascular end point and stroke (P≤0.035). The interaction terms between ABP(24) and eGFR were all nonsignificant (P≥0.082). For cardiovascular mortality, the composite cardiovascular end point, and stroke, ABP(24) added 0.35%, 1.17%, and 1.00% to the risk already explained by cohort, sex, age, body mass index, smoking and drinking, previous cardiovascular disease, diabetes mellitus, and antihypertensive drug treatment. Adding eGFR explained an additional 0.13%, 0.09%, and 0.14%, respectively. Sensitivity analyses stratified for ethnicity, sex, and the presence of hypertension or chronic kidney disease (eGFR <60 mL/min per 1.73 m(2)) were confirmatory. In conclusion, in the general population, eGFR predicts fewer end points than ABP(24). Relative to ABP(24), eGFR is as an additive, not a multiplicative, risk factor and refines risk stratification 2- to 14-fold less.

Background: As arteries become stiffer with ageing, reflected waves move faster and augment late systolic pressure. We investigated the age dependency of peripheral and central systolic pressure, pressure amplification (peripheral systolic blood pressure - central systolic blood pressure), and peripheral and central systolic augmentation (maximal systolic pressure minus the first peak of the pressure wave)., Methods: We randomly recruited 1420 White Europeans (mean age, 41.7 years). peripheral systolic blood pressure and central systolic blood pressure were measured by means of an oscillometric sphygmomanometer and pulse wave analysis, respectively., Results: In cross-sectional analyses (731 women, 689 men), central systolic blood pressure and central systolic augmentation increased more with age than peripheral systolic blood pressure and peripheral systolic augmentation. These age-related increases were greater in women than men. The age-related decrease in pressure amplification was similar in both sexes. In longitudinal analyses (208 women, 190 men), the annual increases in central systolic blood pressure and central systolic augmentation were steeper (p < 0.001) than those in peripheral systolic blood pressure and peripheral systolic augmentation with no sex differences (p ≥ 0.068), except for peripheral systolic augmentation, which was larger in women (p = 0.002). Longitudinally, pressure amplification decreased more with age in women than men (p = 0.012). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, age was the overriding determinant of peripheral systolic blood pressure and central systolic blood pressure., Conclusion: With ageing, peripheral systolic blood pressure approximates to central systolic blood pressure. This might explain why in older subjects peripheral systolic blood pressure becomes the main predictor of cardiovascular complications.

Background: Both low and high iron levels have been associated with cardiovascular outcome. The aim of this study was to determine if dietary iron intake is a cardiovascular predictor in women at a population level., Methods: A 138-item food frequency questionnaire (FFQ) was administered to 906 women aged 61.1±17.1 years from an unselected general population followed for 10 years. The mass of dietary items was calculated, and each food was resolved into its chemical components according to food composition tables conceived for Italian food., Results: An inverse association between iron intake and cardiovascular morbidity was found. Incident nonfatal cerebrovascular events were 10 of 302 (3.3%), 4 of 302 (1.3%), and 2 of 302 (0.7%) in the first, second, and third tertiles of nonheme iron intake (p for trend <0.01), respectively; fatal cerebrovascular events were 20 of 302 (6.6%), 13 of 302 (4.3%), and 5 of 302 (1.7%), respectively (p<0.01); nonfatal coronary events were 24 of 302 (7.9%), 13 of 302 (4.3%), and 10 of 302 (3.3%), respectively, and fatal coronary events were 20 of 302 (6.6%), 15 of 302 (5.0%), and 10 of 302 (3.3%), respectively (p<0.01). Independenly of confounders, hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of being the first rather than third tertile of nonheme iron intake were 5.00 (1.08-23.26), 3.18 (1.41-10.12), and 3.25 (1.39-7.59), respectively, for cerebrovascular and 2.48 (1.17-5.25), 2.25 (1.03-4.80), and 2.51 (1.39-4.53), respectively, for coronary events. Heme iron intake was not a predictor., Conclusions: Based on a longitudinal population analysis, low iron intake seems to be an independent predictor of cerebrovascular and coronary morbidity and mortality in women.

It remains unknown whether diabetes and high blood pressure (BP) are simply additive risk factors for cardiovascular outcome or whether they act synergistically and potentiate one another. We performed 24-h ambulatory BP monitoring in 8494 subjects (mean age, 54.6 years; 47.0% women; 6.9% diabetic patients) enrolled in prospective population studies in 10 countries. In multivariable-adjusted Cox regression, we assessed the additive as opposed to the synergistic effects of BP and diabetes in relation to a composite cardiovascular endpoint by testing the significance of appropriate interaction terms. During 10.6 years (median follow-up), 1066 participants had a cardiovascular complication. Diabetes mellitus as well as the 24-h ambulatory BP were independent and powerful predictors of the composite cardiovascular endpoint. However, there was no synergistic interaction between diabetes and 24-h, daytime, or nighttime, systolic or diastolic ambulatory BP (P for interaction, 0.07P0.97). The only exception was a borderline synergistic effect between diabetes and daytime diastolic BP in relation to the composite cardiovascular endpoint (P=0.04). In diabetic patients, with normotension as the reference group, the adjusted hazard ratios for the cardiovascular endpoint were 1.35 (95% confidence interval (CI), 0.87-2.11) for white-coat hypertension, 1.78 (95% CI, 1.22-2.60) for masked hypertension and 2.44 (95% CI, 1.92-3.11) for sustained hypertension. The hazard ratios for non-diabetic subjects were not different from those of diabetic patients (P-values for interaction, 0.09P0.72). In conclusion, in a large international population-based database, both diabetes mellitus and BP contributed equally to the risk of cardiovascular complications without evidence for a synergistic effect.

Context: Extrapolations from observational studies and short-term intervention trials suggest that population-wide moderation of salt intake might reduce cardiovascular events., Objective: To assess whether 24-hour urinary sodium excretion predicts blood pressure (BP) and health outcomes., Design, Setting, and Participants: Prospective population study, involving 3681 participants without cardiovascular disease (CVD) who are members of families that were randomly enrolled in the Flemish Study on Genes, Environment, and Health Outcomes (1985-2004) or in the European Project on Genes in Hypertension (1999-2001). Of 3681 participants without CVD, 2096 were normotensive at baseline and 1499 had BP and sodium excretion measured at baseline and last follow-up (2005-2008)., Main Outcome Measures: Incidence of mortality and morbidity and association between changes in BP and sodium excretion. Multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios (HRs) express the risk in tertiles of sodium excretion relative to average risk in the whole study population., Results: Among 3681 participants followed up for a median 7.9 years, CVD deaths decreased across increasing tertiles of 24-hour sodium excretion, from 50 deaths in the low (mean, 107 mmol), 24 in the medium (mean, 168 mmol), and 10 in the high excretion group (mean, 260 mmol; P < .001), resulting in respective death rates of 4.1% (95% confidence interval [CI], 3.5%-4.7%), 1.9% (95% CI, 1.5%-2.3%), and 0.8% (95% CI, 0.5%-1.1%). In multivariable-adjusted analyses, this inverse association retained significance (P = .02): the HR in the low tertile was 1.56 (95% CI, 1.02-2.36; P = .04). Baseline sodium excretion predicted neither total mortality (P = .10) nor fatal combined with nonfatal CVD events (P = .55). Among 2096 participants followed up for 6.5 years, the risk of hypertension did not increase across increasing tertiles (P = .93). Incident hypertension was 187 (27.0%; HR, 1.00; 95% CI, 0.87-1.16) in the low, 190 (26.6%; HR, 1.02; 95% CI, 0.89-1.16) in the medium, and 175 (25.4%; HR, 0.98; 95% CI, 0.86-1.12) in the high sodium excretion group. In 1499 participants followed up for 6.1 years, systolic blood pressure increased by 0.37 mm Hg per year (P < .001), whereas sodium excretion did not change (-0.45 mmol per year, P = .15). However, in multivariable-adjusted analyses, a 100-mmol increase in sodium excretion was associated with 1.71 mm Hg increase in systolic blood pressure (P.<001) but no change in diastolic BP., Conclusions: In this population-based cohort, systolic blood pressure, but not diastolic pressure, changes over time aligned with change in sodium excretion, but this association did not translate into a higher risk of hypertension or CVD complications. Lower sodium excretion was associated with higher CVD mortality.

To analyze sex-specific relative and absolute risks associated with blood pressure (BP), we performed conventional and 24-hour ambulatory BP measurements in 9357 subjects (mean age, 52.8 years; 47% women) recruited from 11 populations. We computed standardized multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios for associations between outcome and systolic BP. During a course of 11.2 years (median), 1245 participants died, 472 of cardiovascular causes. The number of fatal combined with nonfatal events was 1080, 525, and 458 for cardiovascular and cardiac events and for stroke, respectively. In women and men alike, systolic BP predicted outcome, irrespective of the type of BP measurement. Women compared with men were at lower risk (hazard ratios for death and all cardiovascular events=0.66 and 0.62, respectively; P<0.001). However, the relation of all cardiovascular events with 24-hour BP (P=0.020) and the relations of total mortality (P=0.023) and all cardiovascular (P=0.0013), cerebrovascular (P=0.045), and cardiac (P=0.034) events with nighttime BP were steeper in women than in men. Consequently, per a 1-SD decrease, the proportion of potentially preventable events was higher in women than in men for all cardiovascular events (35.9% vs 24.2%) in relation to 24-hour systolic BP (1-SD, 13.4 mm Hg) and for all-cause mortality (23.1% vs 12.3%) and cardiovascular (35.1% vs 19.4%), cerebrovascular (38.3% vs 25.9%), and cardiac (31.0% vs 16.0%) events in relation to systolic nighttime BP (1-SD, 14.1 mm Hg). In conclusion, although absolute risks associated with systolic BP were lower in women than men, our results reveal a vast and largely unused potential for cardiovascular prevention by BP-lowering treatment in women.

This review summarizes several scientific contributions at the recent Satellite Symposium of the European Society of Hypertension, held in Milan, Italy. Arterial stiffening and its hemodynamic consequences can be easily and reliably measured using a range of noninvasive techniques. However, like blood pressure (BP) measurements, arterial stiffness should be measured carefully under standardized patient conditions. Carotid-femoral pulse wave velocity has been proposed as the gold standard for arterial stiffness measurement and is a well recognized predictor of adverse cardiovascular outcome. Systolic BP and pulse pressure in the ascending aorta may be lower than pressures measured in the upper limb, especially in young individuals. A number of studies suggest closer correlation of end-organ damage with central BP than with peripheral BP, and central BP may provide additional prognostic information regarding cardiovascular risk. Moreover, BP-lowering drugs can have differential effects on central aortic pressures and hemodynamics compared with brachial BP. This may explain the greater beneficial effect provided by newer antihypertensive drugs beyond peripheral BP reduction. Although many methodological problems still hinder the wide clinical application of parameters of arterial stiffness, these will likely contribute to cardiovascular assessment and management in future clinical practice. Each of the abovementioned parameters reflects a different characteristic of the atherosclerotic process, involving functional and/or morphological changes in the vessel wall. Therefore, acquiring simultaneous measurements of different parameters of vascular function and structure could theoretically enhance the power to improve risk stratification. Continuous technological effort is necessary to refine our methods of investigation in order to detect early arterial abnormalities. Arterial stiffness and its consequences represent the great challenge of the twenty-first century for affluent countries, and "de-stiffening" will be the goal of the next decades.

In previous studies, of which several were underpowered, the relation between cardiovascular outcome and blood pressure (BP) variability was inconsistent. We followed health outcomes in 8938 subjects (mean age: 53.0 years; 46.8% women) randomly recruited from 11 populations. At baseline, we assessed BP variability from the SD and average real variability in 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings. We computed standardized hazard ratios (HRs) while stratifying by cohort and adjusting for 24-hour BP and other risk factors. Over 11.3 years (median), 1242 deaths (487 cardiovascular) occurred, and 1049, 577, 421, and 457 participants experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular, cardiac, or coronary event or a stroke. Higher diastolic average real variability in 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings predicted (Por=1.07) with the exception of cardiac and coronary events (HR: or=0.58). Higher systolic average real variability in 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings predicted (P<0.05) total (HR: 1.11) and cardiovascular (HR: 1.16) mortality and all fatal combined with nonfatal end points (HR: >or=1.07), with the exception of cardiac and coronary events (HR: or=0.54). SD predicted only total and cardiovascular mortality. While accounting for the 24-hour BP level, average real variability in 24-hour ambulatory BP recordings added <1% to the prediction of a cardiovascular event. Sensitivity analyses considering ethnicity, sex, age, previous cardiovascular disease, antihypertensive treatment, number of BP readings per recording, or the night:day BP ratio were confirmatory. In conclusion, in a large population cohort, which provided sufficient statistical power, BP variability assessed from 24-hour ambulatory recordings did not contribute much to risk stratification over and beyond 24-hour BP.

Previous studies on the prognostic significance of the morning blood pressure surge (MS) produced inconsistent results. Using the International Database on Ambulatory Blood Pressure in Relation to Cardiovascular Outcome, we analyzed 5645 subjects (mean age: 53.0 years; 54.0% women) randomly recruited in 8 countries. The sleep-through and the preawakening MS were the differences in the morning blood pressure with the lowest nighttime blood pressure and the preawakening blood pressure, respectively. We computed multivariable-adjusted hazard ratios comparing the risk in ethnic- and sex-specific deciles of the MS relative to the average risk in the whole study population. During follow-up (median: 11.4 years), 785 deaths and 611 fatal and nonfatal cardiovascular events occurred. While accounting for covariables and the night:day ratio of systolic pressure, the hazard ratio of all-cause mortality was 1.32 (95% CI: 1.09 to 1.59; P=0.004) in the top decile of the systolic sleep-through MS (>or=37.0 mm Hg). For cardiovascular and noncardiovascular death, these hazard ratios were 1.18 (95% CI: 0.87 to 1.61; P=0.30) and 1.42 (95% CI: 1.11 to 1.80; P=0.005). For all cardiovascular, cardiac, coronary, and cerebrovascular events, the hazard ratios in the top decile of the systolic sleep-through MS were 1.30 (95% CI: 1.06 to 1.60; P=0.01), 1.52 (95% CI: 1.15 to 2.00; P=0.004), 1.45 (95% CI: 1.04 to 2.03; P=0.03), and 0.95 (95% CI: 0.68 to 1.32; P=0.74), respectively. Analysis of the preawakening systolic MS and the diastolic MS generated consistent results. In conclusion, a MS above the 90th percentile significantly and independently predicted cardiovascular outcome and might contribute to risk stratification by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring.

High systolic blood pressure represents a challenge for the modern world. Epidemiologists are in the best position to appreciate the importance of systolic hypertension and its cardiovascular consequences. Although the label of hypertension seems to have lower importance in the elderly, and above all in the very old, than in younger people, high systolic and high pulse pressure are risk factors for cardiovascular events and necessitates treatment. Unfortunately, due to indolence and lack of aggressiveness, only a limited fraction of elderly hypertensive patients receives adequate therapy.

Objectives: The International Database on Ambulatory Blood Pressure Monitoring (1993-1994) lacked a prospective dimension. We are constructing a new resource of longitudinal population studies to investigate with great precision to what extent the ambulatory blood pressure improves risk stratification., Methods: The acronym IDACO refers to the new International Database of Ambulatory blood pressure in relation to Cardiovascular Outcome. Eligible studies are population based, have fatal as well as nonfatal outcomes available for analysis, comply with ethical standards, and have been previously published in peer-reviewed journals. In a meta-analysis based on individual patient data, composite and cause-specific cardiovascular events will be related to various indexes derived by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring. The analyses will be stratified by cohort and adjusted for the conventional blood pressure and other cardiovascular risk factors., Results: To date, the international database includes 7609 patients from four cohorts recruited in Copenhagen, Denmark (n=2311), Noorderkempen, Belgium (n=2542), Ohasama, Japan (n=1535), and Uppsala, Sweden (n=1221). In these four cohorts, during a total of 69,295 person-years of follow-up (median 9.3 years), 1026 patients died and 929 participants experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event. Follow-up in five other eligible cohorts, involving a total of 4027 participants, is still in progress. We expect that this follow-up will be completed by the end of 2007., Conclusion: The international database of ambulatory blood pressure in relation to cardiovascular outcome will provide a shared resource to investigate risk stratification by ambulatory blood pressure monitoring to an extent not possible in any earlier individual study.

The purpose of this study was to evaluate risk pattern and mortality in a general population epidemiologic study performed by a staff of hypertension specialists working as the "good father of a family," with lifestyle and therapeutic advice and instrumental measurements. Mortality among the study population (n=856) during the 4-y study was compared with that recorded in the general population during the 4-y period before the study; those who refused to participate in the study were also recorded (n=280). Among study subjects, blood pressure decreased by 3.6/3.5 mm Hg (P<.01/P<.0001), serum total cholesterol by 3.8% (P<.0001), and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol by 10.9% (P<.01); awareness of hypertension increased by 87% (P<.0001); 20% of hypercholesterolemic patients (P<.01) and 28% of diabetic patients (P<.001) were identified; and 40% of hypertensive patients (P<.0001) were treated. Overall 4-y mortality was 12.5% in study subjects, 36.6% in renitent subjects (P<.0001 vs enrolled), and 19.9% during the period preceding the study (P<.0001 vs enrolled); cardiovascular mortality rates were 5.8%, 18.6% (P<.0001), and 11.4% (P<.0001), respectively. In particular, the frequency of fatal stroke was 0.06%, 3.8% (P<.0001), and 2.5% (P<.0001), respectively, and that of fatal coronary events was 3.4%, 7.5% (P<.0001), and 4.6% (P<.0001), respectively. In conclusion, when an epidemiologic professional staff member approaches patients in a manner similar to that of the "good father of a family," a better risk pattern and lower mortality rates (particularly cerebrovascular and coronary) are seen in those who are receptive to the care provided; those who decide not to participate in health care opportunities do not benefit.

Mortality and morbidity appear to be higher in a Cimbrian population representing an enclave of people who migrated from medieval Germany to the secluded Leogra valley in Italy. A population-based study was organized, recruiting 881 elderly subjects of Cimbrian origin and comparing them with a standard control population (SCP, n = 3,282) having comparable general characteristics and lifestyle. Serum lipids and glucose, blood pressure, heart rate, respiratory function, ECG abnormalities, and historical events were used as risk indicators. Age-adjusted systolic and pulse pressure were higher in the Cimbrians than in the SCP, while diastolic blood pressure was comparable. The prevalences of arterial hypertension, isolated systolic hypertension, and pulse hypertension were significantly more represented among Cimbrians than SCP. The prevalences of diabetes, hypercholesterolemia, and hypertriglyceridemia were higher among the former than the latter. The ratio between apolipoproteins B and A1 was also higher, while the HDL fraction was significantly lower in Cimbrians than in the SCP. In Cimbrians, the relative risk (RR) for ischemic heart disease was 1.92 (1.57-2.34) in women, 2.30 (1.54-3.43) in men and 1.03 (1.00-1.06) in women for stroke, 2.43 (1.54-3.83) in men and 1.45 (1.01-1.12) in women for atrial fibrillation, 3.85 (2.83-5.24) in men and 1.39 (1.20-1.60) in women for respiratory disease, 1.97 (1.32-2.94) in men and 6.81 (4.38-10.60) in women for intermittent claudication, and 3.31 (2.44-4.50) in men and 2.30 (1.76-3.01) in women for left ventricular hypertrophy. The subjects living in the secluded Leogra valley are at higher cardiovascular risk than the standard controls. Whether this depends on genetic factors, lifestyle, or both will need to be clarified by further analysis.

The question on whether menopause is an independent cardiovascular risk factor is still under debate. The results of four studies conducted by our staff in North East Italy, including > 11,000 subjects from the general population and covering a range of ages from 18 to 95 years, have been employed. We found apparently higher blood pressure (BP) values in naturally menopausal than in fertile women, but this difference disappeared after age-correction, or after identifying fertile and menopausal age-matched women. Significantly higher levels of serum lipids were also observed in menopausal than in fertile women but, in this case too, any difference disappeared after age-correction/matching. In a 16-year longitudinal analysis we found that BP increase and incidence of hypertension were the same in the women who remained fertile, in those becoming naturally menopausal and in those already menopausal at baseline; going through the menopause period, therefore, has no effect on BP. A mild and transitory BP increase was only observed during the climacterium. The BP increase during a follow-up and the incidence of new cases of hypertension were also similar in the women who remained fertile and in those who underwent bilateral ovariectomy, indicating no direct effect on BP for surgical menopause. In contrast, vectorial analysis demonstrated an excess increment of serum lipids among the women who underwent oophorectomy. In our populations, menopause had no predictive role and was rejected from the multivariate equations of risk, cardiovascular risk being completely explained by age and BP (both higher in menopausal then in fertile women).

BACKGROUND: Aortic pulse wave velocity (PWV) predicts cardiovascular events (CVEs) and total mortality (TM), but previous studies proposing actionable PWV thresholds have limited generalizability. This individual-participant meta-analysis is aimed at defining, testing calibration, and validating an outcome-driven threshold for PWV, using 2 populations studies, respectively, for derivation IDCARS (International Database of Central Arterial Properties for Risk Stratification) and replication MONICA (Monitoring of Trends and Determinants in Cardiovascular Disease Health Survey - Copenhagen). METHODS: A risk-carrying PWV threshold for CVE and TM was defined by multivariable Cox regression, using stepwise increasing PWV thresholds and by determining the threshold yielding a 5-year risk equivalent with systolic blood pressure of 140 mm Hg. The predictive performance of the PWV threshold was assessed by computing the integrated discrimination improvement and the net reclassification improvement. RESULTS: In well-calibrated models in IDCARS, the risk-carrying PWV thresholds converged at 9 m/s (10 m/s considering the anatomic pulse wave travel distance). With full adjustments applied, the threshold predicted CVE (hazard ratio [CI]: 1.68 [1.15-2.45]) and TM (1.61 [1.01-2.55]) in IDCARS and in MONICA (1.40 [1.09-1.79] and 1.55 [1.23-1.95]). In IDCARS and MONICA, the predictive accuracy of the threshold for both end points was ≈-0.75. Integrated discrimination improvement was significant for TM in IDCARS and for both TM and CVE in MONICA, whereas net reclassification improvement was not for any outcome. CONCLUSIONS: PWV integrates multiple risk factors into a single variable and might replace a large panel of traditional risk factors. Exceeding the outcome-driven PWV threshold should motivate clinicians to stringent management of risk factors, in particular hypertension, which over a person's lifetime causes stiffening of the elastic arteries as waypoint to CVE and death. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background--Data on risk associated with 24-hour ambulatory diastolic (DBP24) versus systolic (SBP24) blood pressure are scarce. Methods and Results--We recorded 24-hour blood pressure and health outcomes in 8341 untreated people (mean age, 50.8 years; 46.6% women) randomly recruited from 12 populations. We computed hazard ratios (HRs) using multivariable-adjusted Cox regression. Over 11.2 years (median), 927 (11.1%) participants died, 356 (4.3%) from cardiovascular causes, and 744 (8.9%) experienced a fatal or nonfatal cardiovascular event. Isolated diastolic hypertension (DBP24≥80 mm Hg) did not increase the risk of total mortality, cardiovascular mortality, or stroke (HRs≤1.54; P≥0.18), but was associated with a higher risk of fatal combined with nonfatal cardiovascular, cardiac, or coronary events (HRs≥1.75; P≤0.0054). Isolated systolic hypertension (SBP24≥130 mm Hg) and mixed diastolic plus systolic hypertension were associated with increased risks of all aforementioned end points (P≤0.0012). Below age 50, DBP24 was the main driver of risk, reaching significance for total (HR for 1-SD increase, 2.05; P=0.0039) and cardiovascular mortality (HR, 4.07; P=0.0032) and for all cardiovascular end points combined (HR, 1.74; P=0.039) with a nonsignificant contribution of SBP24 (HR≤0.92; P≥0.068); above age 50, SBP24 predicted all end points (HR≥1.19; P≤0.0002) with a nonsignificant contribution of DBP24 (0.96≤HR≤1.14; P≥0.10). The interactions of age with SBP24 and DBP24 were significant for all cardiovascular and coronary events (P≤0.043). Conclusions--The risks conferred by DBP24 and SBP24 are age dependent. DBP24 and isolated diastolic hypertension drive coronary complications below age 50, whereas above age 50 SBP24 and isolated systolic and mixed hypertension are the predominant risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]