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Cholera is a virulent intestinal infection caused by Vibrio cholerae strains. To explore multiple effects of spatial structure, seasonality and human behavior change on cholera transmission, we establish a reaction-advection-diffusion model with a general boundary condition at the downstream end of the river. We derive the basic reproduction number R 0 and discuss its asymptotic behaviors. We further show that R 0 is a strictly decreasing function of the bacterial loss c , which reveals that the bacterial loss at the downstream end of the river due to water flux reduces the risk of cholera transmission. Then we derive a threshold-type result in terms of R 0. More precisely, (i) if R 0 < 1 , the disease-free periodic solution is globally attractive; (ii) if R 0 > 1 , the disease is uniformly persistent; (iii) if R 0 = 1 , the disease-free steady state is globally asymptotically stable in the absence of the advection term, in which the proof is quite challenging due to the introduction of human behavior change, involving some subtle inequalities and estimates. Numerically, an application is demonstrated by investigating the cholera outbreak in Somalia from 1995 to 2016. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The seventh cholera pandemic started in 1961 in Indonesia and spread across the world in three waves in the decades that followed. Here, we utilised genomic evidence to detail the first wave of the seventh pandemic. Genomes of 22 seventh pandemic Vibrio cholerae isolates from 1961 to 1979 were completely sequenced. Together with 152 publicly available genomes from the same period, they fell into seven phylogenetic clusters (CL1-CL7). By multilevel genome typing (MGT), all were assigned to MGT2 ST1 (Wave 1) except three isolates in CL7 which were typed as MGT2 ST2 (Wave 2). The Wave 1 seventh pandemic expanded in two stages, with Stage 1 (CL1-CL5) spread across Asia and Stage 2 (CL6 and CL7) spread to the Middle East and Africa. Three non-synonymous mutations, one each, in three regulatory genes, csrD (global regulator), acfB (chemotaxis), and luxO (quorum sensing) may have critically contributed to its pandemicity. The three MGT2 ST2 isolates in CL7 were the progenitors of Wave 2 and evolved from within Wave 1 with acquisition of a novel IncA/C plasmid. Our findings provide new insight into the evolution and transmission of the early seventh pandemic, which may aid future cholera prevention and control., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

In Bangladesh, Vibrio cholerae lineages are undergoing genomic evolution, with increased virulence and spreading ability. However, our understanding of the genomic determinants influencing lineage transmission and disease severity remains incomplete. Here, we developed a computational framework using machine-learning, genome scale metabolic modelling (GSSM) and 3D structural analysis, to identify V. cholerae genomic traits linked to lineage transmission and disease severity. We analysed in-patients isolates from six Bangladeshi regions (2015-2021), and uncovered accessory genes and core SNPs unique to the most recent dominant lineage, with virulence, motility and bacteriophage resistance functions. We also found a strong correlation between V. cholerae genomic traits and disease severity, with some traits overlapping those driving lineage transmission. GSMM and 3D structure analysis unveiled a complex interplay between transcription regulation, protein interaction and stability, and metabolic networks, associated to lifestyle adaptation, intestinal colonization, acid tolerance and symptom severity. Our findings support advancing therapeutics and targeted interventions to mitigate cholera spread., (© 2024. The Author(s).)

Public health decisions must be made about when and how to implement interventions to control an infectious disease epidemic. These decisions should be informed by data on the epidemic as well as current understanding about the transmission dynamics. Such decisions can be posed as statistical questions about scientifically motivated dynamic models. Thus, we encounter the methodological task of building credible, data-informed decisions based on stochastic, partially observed, nonlinear dynamic models. This necessitates addressing the tradeoff between biological fidelity and model simplicity, and the reality of misspecification for models at all levels of complexity. We assess current methodological approaches to these issues via a case study of the 2010-2019 cholera epidemic in Haiti. We consider three dynamic models developed by expert teams to advise on vaccination policies. We evaluate previous methods used for fitting these models, and we demonstrate modified data analysis strategies leading to improved statistical fit. Specifically, we present approaches for diagnosing model misspecification and the consequent development of improved models. Additionally, we demonstrate the utility of recent advances in likelihood maximization for high-dimensional nonlinear dynamic models, enabling likelihood-based inference for spatiotemporal incidence data using this class of models. Our workflow is reproducible and extendable, facilitating future investigations of this disease system., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist., (Copyright: © 2024 Wheeler et al. This is an open access article distributed under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution License, which permits unrestricted use, distribution, and reproduction in any medium, provided the original author and source are credited.)

Studies have reported the occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in fish but little is known about the interaction between fish and toxigenic V. cholerae as opposed to phytoplankton, which are well-established aquatic reservoirs for V. cholerae. The present study determined the role of tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) as a reservoir host for survival and transmission of V. cholerae in aquatic environments. Three experiments were performed with one repetition each, where O. niloticus (∼2 g) kept in beakers were inoculated with four V. cholerae strains (5 × 107 cfu/mL). Firstly, infected tilapia were kept in stagnant water and fed live brine shrimp (Artemia salina) larvae daily. Secondly, infected tilapia were kept without feeding and water was changed every 24 h. Thirdly, infected tilapia were fed and water was renewed daily. Infected tilapia and non-infected controls were sacrificed on days 1, 2, 3, 7, and 14 post-inoculation and V. cholerae were enumerated in intestinal content and water. Another experiment assessed the transmission of V. cholerae from infected to non-infected tilapia. The study revealed that El Tor biotype V. cholerae O1 and V. cholerae non-O1 colonized tilapia intestines and persisted at stable concentrations during the second week of the experiment whereas the Classical biotype was undetectable after 1 week. In stagnant water with feeding, V. cholerae counts dropped to 105 cfu/ml in water and from 107 to 104 cfu/intestine in fish after 14 days. When water was renewed, counts in water decreased from 107 to 103 cfu/ml and intestinal counts went from 106 to 102 cfu/intestine regardless of feeding. All strains were transmitted from infected to naïve fish after 24 h of cohabitation. Tilapia like other fish may play an essential role in the survival and dissemination of V. cholerae O1 in aquatic environments, e.g., the seventh pandemic strains mostly. In this study, tilapia were exposed to high concentrations of V. cholerae to ensure initial uptake and follow-up studies with lower doses resembling natural concentrations of V. cholerae in the aquatic environment are needed to confirm our findings.

Many forcibly displaced people reside in camps characterised by precarious living conditions, exposing them to numerous health risks. This scoping review elucidated the risk factors and exposure routes implicated in outbreaks of faecal-oral pathogens in camps, as well as the context-specific drivers of transmission that shape these outbreaks. Journal articles were identified from PubMed, Embase, Scopus, and Web of Science. Portals for grey literature were also searched. A total of 48 records, published between 1937 and 2022, were included in the analysis. Cholera outbreaks were the most frequently reported. Risk factors included drinking water from shallow wells and rivers, consuming ice and leftover food, and inconsistent handwashing. These indicate exposure through vehicles of transmission in both public and domestic domains, emphasising the importance of a multipronged approach to outbreak prevention and control. Outbreaks were often exacerbated by extreme weather events and acute population influxes that damage or overwhelm water and sanitation facilities. Such shocks warrant explicit recommendations in preparedness and response guidelines. Development projects and outbreak response measures in surrounding areas may reduce the risk of importing pathogens into camps. Future research could further investigate faecal-oral pathogens other than Vibrio cholerae and analyse the co-occurrence of the identified transmission drivers.

Studies have reported the occurrence of Vibrio cholerae in fish but little is known about the interaction between fish and toxigenic V. cholerae as opposed to phytoplankton, which are well-established aquatic reservoirs for V. cholerae. The present study determined the role of tilapia (Oreochromis niloticus) as a reservoir host for survival and transmission of V. cholerae in aquatic environments. Three experiments were performed with one repetition each, where O. niloticus (∼2 g) kept in beakers were inoculated with four V. cholerae strains (5 × 107 cfu/mL). Firstly, infected tilapia were kept in stagnant water and fed live brine shrimp (Artemia salina) larvae daily. Secondly, infected tilapia were kept without feeding and water was changed every 24 h. Thirdly, infected tilapia were fed and water was renewed daily. Infected tilapia and non-infected controls were sacrificed on days 1, 2, 3, 7, and 14 post-inoculation and V. cholerae were enumerated in intestinal content and water. Another experiment assessed the transmission of V. cholerae from infected to non-infected tilapia. The study revealed that El Tor biotype V. cholerae O1 and V. cholerae non-O1 colonized tilapia intestines and persisted at stable concentrations during the second week of the experiment whereas the Classical biotype was undetectable after 1 week. In stagnant water with feeding, V. cholerae counts dropped to 105 cfu/ml in water and from 107 to 104 cfu/intestine in fish after 14 days. When water was renewed, counts in water decreased from 107 to 103 cfu/ml and intestinal counts went from 106 to 102 cfu/intestine regardless of feeding. All strains were transmitted from infected to naïve fish after 24 h of cohabitation. Tilapia like other fish may play an essential role in the survival and dissemination of V. cholerae O1 in aquatic environments, e.g., the seventh pandemic strains mostly. In this study, tilapia were exposed to high concentrations of V. cholerae to ensure initial uptake and follow-up studies with lower doses resembling natural concentrations of V. cholerae in the aquatic environment are needed to confirm our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Bullfrog is one of the most important economic aquatic animals in China that is widely cultured in southern China and is a key breed recommended as an industry of poverty alleviation in China. During recent years, a fatal bacterial disease has often been found in cultured bullfrogs. The clinical manifestations of the diseased bullfrogs were severe intestinal inflammation and an anal prolapse. A bacterial pathogen was isolated from the diseased bullfrog intestines. The bacterium was identified as Vibrio cholerae using morphological, biochemical and 16S rRNA phylogenetic analysis. In this study, V. cholerae was isolated and identified in diseased bullfrogs for the first time, providing a basis for the diagnosis and control of the disease. Therefore, attention should be paid to the modes of transmission of V. cholerae from bullfrog and formulate reasonable safety measures.

Cholera is endemic along the Great Lakes Region, in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC). From these endemic areas, also under perpetual conflicts, outbreaks spread to other areas. However, the main routes of propagation remain unclear. This research aimed to explore the modalities and likely main routes of geographic spread of cholera from endemic areas in eastern DRC. We used historical reconstruction of major outbreak expansions of cholera since its introduction in eastern DRC, maps of distribution and spatiotemporal cluster detection analyses of cholera data from passive surveillance (2000-2017) to describe the spread dynamics of cholera from eastern DRC. Four modalities of geographic spread and their likely main routes from the source areas of epidemics to other areas were identified: in endemic eastern provinces, and in non-endemic provinces of eastern, central and western DRC. Using non-parametric statistics, we found that the higher the number of conflict events reported in eastern DRC, the greater the geographic spread of cholera across the country. The present study revealed that the dynamics of the spread of cholera follow a fairly well-defined spatial logic and can therefore be predicted., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Cholera is a major cause of mortality and morbidity in low-resource and humanitarian settings. It is transmitted by fecal-oral route, and the infection risk is higher to those living in and near cholera cases. Rapid identification of cholera cases and implementation of measures to prevent subsequent transmission around cases may be an efficient strategy to reduce the size and scale of cholera outbreaks., Methodology/principle Findings: We investigated implementation of cholera case-area targeted interventions (CATIs) using systematic reviews and case studies. We identified 11 peer-reviewed and eight grey literature articles documenting CATIs and completed 30 key informant interviews in case studies in Democratic Republic of Congo, Haiti, Yemen, and Zimbabwe. We documented 15 outbreaks in 12 countries where CATIs were used. The team composition and the interventions varied, with water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions implemented more commonly than those of health. Alert systems triggering interventions were diverse ranging from suspected cholera cases to culture confirmed cases. Selection of high-risk households around the case household was inconsistent and ranged from only one case to approximately 100 surrounding households with different methods of selecting them. Coordination among actors and integration between sectors were consistently reported as challenging. Delays in sharing case information impeded rapid implementation of this approach, while evaluation of the effectiveness of interventions varied., Conclusions/significance: CATIs appear effective in reducing cholera outbreaks, but there is limited and context specific evidence of their effectiveness in reducing the incidence of cholera cases and lack of guidance for their consistent implementation. We propose to 1) use uniform cholera case definitions considering a local capacity to trigger alert; 2) evaluate the effectiveness of individual or sets of interventions to interrupt cholera, and establish a set of evidence-based interventions; 3) establish criteria to select high-risk households; and 4) improve coordination and data sharing amongst actors and facilitate integration among sectors to strengthen CATI approaches in cholera outbreaks., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Vibrio cholerae O1 is the aetiological agent of the severe diarrhoeal disease cholera. Annually, there are an estimated 1-4 million cholera cases worldwide and over 140 000 deaths. The primary mode of disease transmission is through the consumption of water or food contaminated with the bacterium. Although cholera patients can be treated effectively using rehydration therapy, the disease remains a major scourge in areas with limited access to clean water and proper sanitation. Its continued prevalence highlights the failure of socioeconomic policies leading to wealth disparities, fragile and dated public infrastructure, and lack of appropriate health surveillance.

There are two common household disinfection interventions to prevent interhousehold transmission of cholera: household spraying, whereby a team disinfects cholera patients' households, and household disinfection kits (HDKs), whereby cleaning materials are provided to cholera patients' family members. Currently, both interventions lack evidence, and international agencies recommend HDK distribution; however, household spraying remains widely implemented. To understand this disconnect, we conducted 14 key informant interviews with international and national responders and a study in Haiti assessing HDK efficacy using two training modules including 20 household surveys and 327 surfaces samples before and after cleaning. During interviews, 80% of the international-level informants discussed evidence gaps for both interventions, and 60% preferred HDKs. Conversely, no national-level informants knew what an HDK was; therefore, they all preferred spraying. Informants discussed behavior changes, bleach perceptions, and implementation as facilitators and/or barriers to implementing both interventions. In households, training with demonstrations regarding the use of HDK led to increased reductions of Escherichia coli (P < 0.001) and Vibrio spp. (P < 0.001) on surfaces after participants cleaned the household compared with a hygiene promotion session only. These results emphasize the gap between the current international-level policy and the realities of cholera response programs, highlight the need for evidence to align household disinfection recommendations, and underscore the importance of the dissemination and training of responders and affected populations regarding methods to prevent intrahousehold cholera transmission.

Background: Despite recent insights into cholera transmission patterns in Africa, regional and local dynamics in West Africa-where cholera outbreaks occur every few years-are still poorly understood. Coordinated genomic surveillance of Vibrio cholerae in the areas most affected may reveal transmission patterns important for cholera control., Methods: During a regional sequencing workshop in Nigeria, we sequenced 46 recent V. cholerae isolates from Cameroon, Niger, and Nigeria (37 from 2018 to 2019) to better understand the relationship between the V. cholerae bacterium circulating in these three countries., Results: From these isolates, we generated 44 whole Vibrio cholerae O1 sequences and analyzed them in the context of 1280 published V. cholerae O1 genomes. All sequences belonged to the T12 V. cholerae seventh pandemic lineage., Conclusions: Phylogenetic analysis of newly generated and previously published V. cholerae genomes suggested that the T12 lineage has been continuously transmitted within West Africa since it was first observed in the region in 2009, despite lack of reported cholera in the intervening years. The results from this regional sequencing effort provide a model for future regionally coordinated surveillance efforts., Funding: Funding for this project was provided by Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation OPP1195157., Competing Interests: EE, ST, BA, BI, IA, CC, ID, SM, SO, MP, AN, YB, FL, AA, DN, AA, JL, SW No competing interests declared, (© 2021, Ekeng et al.)

Background: Cholera has been present and recurring in Zambia since 1977. However, there is a paucity of data on genetic relatedness and diversity of the Vibrio cholerae isolates responsible for these outbreaks. Understanding whether the outbreaks are seeded from existing local isolates or if the outbreaks represent separate transmission events can inform public health decisions., Results: Seventy-two V. cholerae isolates from outbreaks in 2009/2010, 2016, and 2017/2018 in Zambia were characterized using multilocus variable number tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) and whole genome sequencing (WGS). The isolates had eight distinct MLVA genotypes that clustered into three MLVA clonal complexes (CCs). Each CC contained isolates from only one outbreak. The results from WGS revealed both clustered and dispersed single nucleotide variants. The genetic relatedness of isolates based on WGS was consistent with the MLVA, each CC was a distinct genetic lineage and had nearest neighbors from other East African countries. In Lusaka, isolates from the same outbreak were more closely related to themselves and isolates from other countries than to isolates from other outbreaks in other years., Conclusions: Our observations are consistent with i) the presence of random mutation and alternative mechanisms of nucleotide variation, and ii) three separate transmission events of V. cholerae into Lusaka, Zambia. We suggest that locally, case-area targeted invention strategies and regionally, well-coordinated plans be in place to effectively control future cholera outbreaks.

We investigate the source detection problem in epidemiology, which is one of the most important issues for control of epidemics. Mathematically, we reformulate the problem as one of identifying the relevant component in a multivariate Gaussian mixture model. Focusing on the study of cholera and diseases with similar modes of transmission, we calibrate the parameters of our mixture model using human mobility networks within a stochastic, spatially explicit epidemiological model for waterborne disease. Furthermore, we adopt a Bayesian perspective, so that prior information on source location can be incorporated (e.g., reflecting the impact of local conditions). Posterior-based inference is performed, which permits estimates in the form of either individual locations or regions. Importantly, our estimator only requires first-arrival times of the epidemic by putative observers, typically located only at a small proportion of nodes. The proposed method is demonstrated within the context of the 2000-2002 cholera outbreak in the KwaZulu-Natal province of South Africa., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Waterborne diseases are present major health problems to humanity especially in rural communities where many individuals belong to the lower socioeconomic classes (SECs). The impacts of introducing waterborne disease control measures for such communities are investigated by considering a waterborne disease model. The model is extended by introducing treatment of infected individuals and water purification as control measures. The possible benefits of considering these control measures for the various SECs are investigated. Further analyses show how different degrees of control impact the rate at which waterborne diseases are spread across SECs. The disease control model is validated by using it to study the cholera outbreak in Haiti.

Background: On 23 February 2018, the Uganda Ministry of Health (MOH) declared a cholera outbreak affecting more than 60 persons in Kyangwali Refugee Settlement, Hoima District, bordering the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC). We investigated to determine the outbreak scope and risk factors for transmission, and recommend evidence-based control measures., Methods: We defined a suspected case as sudden onset of watery diarrhoea in any person aged ≥ 2 years in Hoima District, 1 February-9 May 2018. A confirmed case was a suspected case with Vibrio cholerae cultured from a stool sample. We found cases by active community search and record reviews at Cholera Treatment Centres. We calculated case-fatality rates (CFR) and attack rates (AR) by sub-county and nationality. In a case-control study, we compared exposure factors among case- and control-households. We estimated the association between the exposures and outcome using Mantel-Haenszel method. We conducted an environmental assessment in the refugee settlement, including testing samples of stream water, tank water, and spring water for presence of fecal coliforms. We tested suspected cholera cases using cholera rapid diagnostic test (RDT) kits followed by culture for confirmation., Results: We identified 2122 case-patients and 44 deaths (CFR = 2.1%). Case-patients originating from Demographic Republic of Congo were the most affected (AR = 15/1000). The overall attack rate in Hoima District was 3.2/1000, with Kyangwali sub-county being the most affected (AR = 13/1000). The outbreak lasted 4 months, which was a multiple point-source. Environmental assessment showed that a stream separating two villages in Kyangwali Refugee Settlement was a site of open defecation for refugees. Among three water sources tested, only stream water was feacally-contaminated, yielding > 100 CFU/100 ml. Of 130 stool samples tested, 124 (95%) yielded V. cholerae by culture. Stream water was most strongly associated with illness (odds ratio [OR] = 14.2, 95% CI: 1.5-133), although tank water also appeared to be independently associated with illness (OR = 11.6, 95% CI: 1.4-94). Persons who drank tank and stream water had a 17-fold higher odds of illness compared with persons who drank from other sources (OR = 17.3, 95% CI: 2.2-137)., Conclusions: Our investigation demonstrated that this was a prolonged cholera outbreak that affected four sub-counties and two divisions in Hoima District, and was associated with drinking of contaminated stream water. In addition, tank water also appears to be unsafe. We recommended boiling drinking water, increasing latrine coverage, and provision of safe water by the District and entire High Commission for refugees.

Background: The 2018 cholera outbreak in Nigeria affected over half of the states in the country, and was characterised by high attack and case fatality rates. The country continues to record cholera cases and related deaths to date. However, there is a dearth of evidence on context-specific drivers and their operational mechanisms in mediating recurrent cholera transmission in Nigeria. This study therefore aimed to fill this important research gap, with a view to informing the design and implementation of appropriate preventive and control measures., Methods: Four bibliographic literature sources (CINAHL (Plus with full text), Web of Science, Google Scholar and PubMed), and one journal (African Journals Online) were searched to retrieve documents relating to cholera transmission in Nigeria. Titles and abstracts of the identified documents were screened according to a predefined study protocol. Data extraction and bibliometric analysis of all eligible documents were conducted, which was followed by thematic and systematic analyses., Results: Forty-five documents met the inclusion criteria and were included in the final analysis. The majority of the documents were peer-reviewed journal articles (89%) and conducted predominantly in the context of cholera epidemics (64%). The narrative analysis indicates that social, biological, environmental and climatic, health systems, and a combination of two or more factors appear to drive cholera transmission in Nigeria. Regarding operational dynamics, a substantial number of the identified drivers appear to be functionally interdependent of each other., Conclusion: The drivers of recurring cholera transmission in Nigeria are diverse but functionally interdependent; thus, underlining the importance of adopting a multi-sectoral approach for cholera prevention and control.

While several basic properties of cholera outbreaks are common to most settings-the pathophysiology of the disease, the waterborne nature of transmission, and others-recent findings suggest that transmission within households may play a larger role in cholera outbreaks than previously appreciated. Important features of cholera outbreaks have long been effectively modeled with mathematical and computational approaches, but little is known about how variation in direct transmission via households may influence epidemic dynamics. In this study, we construct a mathematical model of cholera that incorporates transmission within and between households. We observe that variation in the magnitude of household transmission changes multiple features of disease dynamics, including the severity and duration of outbreaks. Strikingly, we observe that household transmission influences the effectiveness of possible public health interventions (e.g. water treatment, antibiotics, vaccines). We find that vaccine interventions are more effective than water treatment or antibiotic administration when direct household transmission is present. Summarizing, we position these results within the landscape of existing models of cholera, and speculate on its implications for epidemiology and public health., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Introduction: Cholera remains a frequent cause of outbreaks globally, particularly in areas with inadequate water, sanitation and hygiene (WASH) services. Cholera is spread through faecal-oral routes, and studies demonstrate that ingestion of Vibrio cholerae occurs from consuming contaminated food and water, contact with cholera cases and transmission from contaminated environmental point sources. WASH guidelines recommending interventions for the prevention and control of cholera are numerous and vary considerably in their recommendations. To date, there has been no review of practice guidelines used in cholera prevention and control programmes., Methods: We systematically searched international agency websites to identify WASH intervention guidelines used in cholera programmes in endemic and epidemic settings. Recommendations listed in the guidelines were extracted, categorised and analysed. Analysis was based on consistency, concordance and recommendations were classified on the basis of whether the interventions targeted within-household or community-level transmission., Results: Eight international guidelines were included in this review: three by non-governmental organisations (NGOs), one from a non-profit organisation (NPO), three from multilateral organisations and one from a research institution. There were 95 distinct recommendations identified, and concordance among guidelines was poor to fair. All categories of WASH interventions were featured in the guidelines. The majority of recommendations targeted community-level transmission (45%), 35% targeted within-household transmission and 20% both., Conclusions: Recent evidence suggests that interventions for effective cholera control and response to epidemics should focus on case-centred approaches and within-household transmission. Guidelines did consistently propose interventions targeting transmission within households. However, the majority of recommendations listed in guidelines targeted community-level transmission and tended to be more focused on preventing contamination of the environment by cases or recurrent outbreaks, and the level of service required to interrupt community-level transmission was often not specified. The guidelines in current use were varied and interpretation may be difficult when conflicting recommendations are provided. Future editions of guidelines should reflect on the inclusion of evidence-based approaches, cholera transmission models and resource-efficient strategies., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist. The authors alone are responsible for their views expressed in this article and they do not represent the views, decisions or policies of the institutions with which they are associated. Authors from MSF (RVDB, DT, PM), UNICEF (GB) and WHO (DL) contributed independently in their own rights of individuals.

Background: Cholera is a major public health concern in displaced-person camps, which often contend with overcrowding and scarcity of resources. Maela, the largest and longest-standing refugee camp in Thailand, located along the Thai-Burmese border, experienced four cholera outbreaks between 2005 and 2010. In 2013, a cholera vaccine campaign was implemented in the camp. To assist in the evaluation of the campaign and planning for subsequent campaigns, we developed a mathematical model of cholera in Maela., Methods: We formulated a Susceptible-Infectious-Water-Recovered-based transmission model and estimated parameters using incidence data from 2010. We next evaluated the reduction in cases conferred by several immunization strategies, varying timing, effectiveness, and resources (i.e., vaccine availability). After the vaccine campaign, we generated case forecasts for the next year, to inform on-the-ground decision-making regarding whether a booster campaign was needed., Results: We found that preexposure vaccination can substantially reduce the risk of cholera even when <50% of the population is given the full two-dose series. Additionally, the preferred number of doses per person should be considered in the context of one vs. two dose effectiveness and vaccine availability. For reactive vaccination, a trade-off between timing and effectiveness was revealed, indicating that it may be beneficial to give one dose to more people rather than two doses to fewer people, given that a two-dose schedule would incur a delay in administration of the second dose. Forecasting using realistic coverage levels predicted that there was no need for a booster campaign in 2014 (consistent with our predictions, there was not a cholera epidemic in 2014)., Conclusions: Our analyses suggest that vaccination in conjunction with ongoing water sanitation and hygiene efforts provides an effective strategy for controlling cholera outbreaks in refugee camps. Effective preexposure vaccination depends on timing and effectiveness. If a camp is facing an outbreak, delayed distribution of vaccines can substantially alter the effectiveness of reactive vaccination, suggesting that quick distribution of vaccines may be more important than ensuring every individual receives both vaccine doses. Overall, this analysis illustrates how mathematical models can be applied in public health practice, to assist in evaluating alternative intervention strategies and inform decision-making.

In this paper, an age-structured cholera model with multiple transmissions, saturation incidence and imperfect vaccination is proposed. In the model, we consider both the infection age of infected individuals and the biological age of Vibrio cholerae in the aquatic environment. Asymptotic smoothness is verified as a necessary argument. By analysing the characteristic equations, the local stability of disease-free and endemic steady states is established. By using Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, it is proved that the global dynamics of the model can be completely determined by basic reproduction number. The study of optimal control helps us seek cost-effective solutions of time-dependent vaccination strategy against cholera outbreaks. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the corresponding theoretical results.

Objective: Uncertainty persists regarding cholera transmission routes. We conducted a structured review of case-control studies on cholera transmission and provide a qualitative summary of reported exposures in order to inform public health efforts and future cholera research., Methods: We searched two electronic databases for published case-control studies that investigated risk factors for cholera and included any publications that did not match our exclusion criteria. From the included studies, we grouped exposures using two parameters, whether transmission domain was public or domestic, and also on the vehicle of transmission. We extracted data on study location, method of case and control inclusion, type of statistical analysis performed and which exposures were included. Additionally, two parallel subgroup analyses were performed. The first included the subgroup of all studies that used culture-confirmed cholera cases, and the second included the subgroup of all studies employing a multivariate analysis. In the second analysis, we calculated the population attributable risk (PAR)., Results: Our search yielded 2347 peer-reviewed publications, of which 65 did not match our exclusion criteria, comprising 69 individual studies. Water-based exposures were investigated in 97% of these studies, of which 70% found a significant association with cholera infection. Food-based exposures were investigated in 75% of studies, of which 63% found a significant association with risk of cholera infection. Close personal contact with cholera cases was investigated in 30% of studies, of which 52% found a significant association with risk of cholera infection. Hygiene-related exposures were investigated in 51% of studies, of which 63% found a significant association with cholera transmission. Among studies that examined at least one exposure related to the domestic domain, 76% found a significant association with cholera infection vs. 71% of studies investigating at least one public domain exposure. The subgroup analyses produced similar results., Conclusions: Despite strong evidence for cholera transmission via foodborne-, hygiene-, waterborne- and close personal contact-related pathways in both domestic and public domains, we found that non-waterborne-related factors are understudied. Future cholera case-control studies would benefit from investigating all transmission vehicles and transmission domains., (© 2019 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

In 2017-18, a large-scale cholera outbreak swept Yemen. We calculated the number of culture-confirmed cases from the suspected cases and diagnosis testing records. We estimate 184,248 confirmed cholera cases between April 2017 and the end of 2017, and the reproduction number of 2.2 with 95% CI of [2.1, 2.3] during the initial stage. We find a significantly (nonlinear) positive association between the reproduction number ( R t ) and precipitation, explained 13% of transmissibility changes, with one unit (mm) increment in precipitation leading to an increment of 20.1% in R t . We find a significantly (nonlinear) negative association between the R t and cumulative Google Trends index (GTI), explained 62% of transmissibility changes, with one unit increment in cumulative GTI leading to a drop of 0.03% in R t .

Background: In April 2016, an emergency vaccination campaign using one dose of Oral Cholera Vaccine (OCV) was organized in response to a cholera outbreak that started in Lusaka in February 2016. In December 2016, a second round of vaccination was conducted, with the objective of increasing the duration of protection, before the high-risk period for cholera transmission. We assessed vaccination coverage for the first and second rounds of the OCV campaign., Methods: Vaccination coverage was estimated after each round from a sample selected from targeted-areas for vaccination using a cross-sectional survey in to establish the vaccination status of the individuals recruited. The study population included all individuals older than 12 months residing in the areas targeted for vaccination. We interviewed 505 randomly selected individuals after the first round and 442 after the second round. Vaccination status was ascertained either by vaccination card or verbal reporting. Households were selected using spatial random sampling., Results: The vaccination coverage with two doses was 58.1% (25/43; 95%CI: 42.1-72.9) in children 1-5 years old, 59.5% (69/116; 95%CI: 49.9-68.5) in children 5-15 years old and 19.9% (56/281; 95%CI: 15.4-25.1) in adults above 15 years old. The overall dropout rate was 10.9% (95%CI: 8.1-14.1). Overall, 69.9% (n = 309/442; 95%CI: 65.4-74.1) reported to have received at least one OCV dose., Conclusions: The areas at highest risk of suffering cholera outbreaks were targeted for vaccination obtaining relatively high vaccine coverage after each round. However, the long delay between doses in areas subject to considerable population movement resulted in many individuals receiving only one OCV dose. Additional vaccination campaigns may be required to sustain protection over time in case of persistence of risk. Further evidence is needed to establish a maximum optimal interval time of a delayed second dose and variations in different settings., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Vibrio cholerae is the causative agent of cholera, a life-threatening diarrheal disease. Cholera causes epidemics and pandemics, but the ways this disease spreads worldwide is still unclear. This review highlights a relatively new hypothesis regarding the way V. cholerae can be globally dispersed. Copepods and chironomids are natural reservoirs of V. cholerae and are part of different fish species' diet. Furthermore, V. cholerae inhabits marine and freshwater fish species. Waterbird species feed on fish or on small invertebrates such as copepods and chironomids. Waterbirds have also been found to carry living copepods and/or chironomids internally or externally from one waterbody to another. All of the above points to the fact that some waterbird species might be vectors of V. cholerae. Indeed, we and others have found evidence for the presence of V. cholerae non-O1 as well as O1 in waterbird cloacal swabs, feces, and intestine samples. Moreover, hand-reared cormorants that were fed on tilapia, a fish that naturally carries V. cholerae, became infected with this bacterial species, demonstrating that V. cholerae can be transferred to cormorants from their fish prey. Great cormorants as well as other waterbird species can cover distances of up to 1,000 km/day and thus may potentially transfer V. cholerae in a short time across and between continents. We hope this review will inspire further studies regarding the understanding of the waterbirds' role in the global dissemination of V. cholerae., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objectives: We study the transmission dynamics of cholera in the presence of limited resources, a common feature of the developing world. The model is used to gain insight into the impact of available resources of the health care system on the spread and control of the disease. A deterministic model that includes a nonlinear recovery rate is formulated and rigorously analyzed. Limited treatment is described by inclusion of a special treatment function. Center manifold theory is used to show that the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation. Matlab has been used to carry out numerical simulations to support theoretical findings., Results: The model analysis shows that the disease free steady state is locally stable when the threshold [Formula: see text]. It is also shown that the model has multiple equilibria and the model exhibits the phenomenon of backward bifurcation whose implications to cholera infection are discussed. The results are useful for the public health planning in resource allocation for the control of cholera transmission.

Cholera epidemic remains a public threat throughout history, affecting vulnerable population living with unreliable water and substandard sanitary conditions. Various studies have observed that the occurrence of cholera has strong linkage with environmental factors such as climate change and geographical location. Climate change has been strongly linked to the seasonal occurrence and widespread of cholera through the creation of weather patterns that favor the disease's transmission, infection, and the growth of Vibrio cholerae , which cause the disease. Over the past decades, there have been great achievements in developing epidemic models for the proper prediction of cholera. However, the integration of weather variables and use of machine learning techniques have not been explicitly deployed in modeling cholera epidemics in Tanzania due to the challenges that come with its datasets such as imbalanced data and missing information. This paper explores the use of machine learning techniques to model cholera epidemics with linkage to seasonal weather changes while overcoming the data imbalance problem. Adaptive Synthetic Sampling Approach (ADASYN) and Principal Component Analysis (PCA) were used to the restore sampling balance and dimensional of the dataset. In addition, sensitivity, specificity, and balanced-accuracy metrics were used to evaluate the performance of the seven models. Based on the results of the Wilcoxon sign-rank test and features of the models, XGBoost classifier was selected to be the best model for the study. Overall results improved our understanding of the significant roles of machine learning strategies in health-care data. However, the study could not be treated as a time series problem due to the data collection bias. The study recommends a review of health-care systems in order to facilitate quality data collection and deployment of machine learning techniques., Competing Interests: The authors declare that there are no conflicts of interest regarding the publication of this paper.

Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

In this paper we study an SLIR epidemic model with nonmonotonic incidence rate, which describes the psychological effect of certain serious diseases on the community when the number of infectives is getting larger. By carrying out a global analysis of the model and studying the stability of the disease-free equilibrium and the endemic equilibrium, we show that either the number of infective individuals tends to zero or the disease persists as time evolves. For the stochastic model, we prove the existence, uniqueness and positivity of the solution of the model. Then, we investigate the stability of the model and we prove that the infective tends asymptotically to zero exponentially almost surely as R 0 < 1. We also proved that the SLIR model has the ergodic property as the fluctuation is small, where the positive solution converges weakly to the unique stationary distribution.

We propose a mathematical model for the transmission dynamics of cholera under the impact of available medical resources. The model describes the interaction between the human hosts and the pathogenic bacteria and incorporates both the environment-to-human and human-to-human transmission routes. We conduct a rigorous equilibrium analysis to the model and establish the global asymptotic stability of the disease-free equilibrium when R 0 ≤ 1 and that of the endemic equilibrium when R 0 > 1. As a realistic case study, we apply our model to the Yemen cholera outbreak during 2017-2018. By fitting our simulation results to the epidemic data published by the World Health Organization, we find that different levels of disease prevalence and severity are linked to different geographical regions in this country and that cholera prevention and intervention efforts should be implemented strategically with respect to these regions in Yemen.

Cholera is a common infectious disease caused by Vibrio cholerae, which has different infectivity. In this paper, we propose a cholera model with hyperinfectious and hypoinfectious vibrios, in which both human-to-human and environment-to-human transmissions are considered. By analyzing the characteristic equations, the local stability of disease-free and endemic equilibria is established. By using Lyapunov functionals and LaSalle's invariance principle, it is verified that the global threshold dynamics of the model can be completely determined by the basic reproduction number. Numerical simulations are carried out to illustrate the corresponding theoretical results and describe the cholera outbreak in Haiti. The study of optimal control helps us seek cost-effective solutions of time-dependent control strategies against cholera outbreaks, which shows that control strategies, such as vaccination and sanitation, should be taken at the very beginning of the outbreak and become less necessary after a certain period.

Cholera has affected Haiti with damping waves of outbreaks since October 2010. However, mechanisms behind disease persistence during lull periods remain poorly understood. By mid 2014, cholera transmission seemed to only persist in the northern part of Haiti. Meanwhile, cholera appeared nearly extinct in the capital, Port-au-Prince, where it eventually exploded in September 2014. This study aimed to determine whether this outbreak was caused by local undetected cases or by re-importation of the disease from the north. Applying an integrated approach between November 2013 and November 2014, we assessed the temporal and spatial dynamics of cholera using routine surveillance data and performed population genetics analyses of 178 Vibrio cholerae O1 clinical isolates. The results suggest that the northern part of the country exhibited a persisting metapopulation pattern with roaming oligoclonal outbreaks that could not be effectively controlled. Conversely, undetected and unaddressed autochthonous low-grade transmission persisted in the Port-au-Prince area, which may have been the source of the acute outbreak in late-2014. Cholera genotyping is a simple but powerful tool to adapt control strategies based on epidemic specificities. In Haiti, these data have already yielded significant progress in cholera surveillance, which is a key component of the strategy to eventually eliminate cholera.

Cholera is an acute intestinal illness caused by infection with the bacterium Vibrio cholerae. The dynamics of the disease transmission are governed by human-human, environment-human, and within-human sub-dynamics. A multi-scale model is presented to incorporate all three of these dynamical components. The model is divided into three subsystems where the dynamics are analyzed according to their respective time scales. For each subsystem, we conduct a careful equilibrium analysis, with a focus on the disease threshold characterized by the basic reproduction number. Finally, the three subsystems are combined to discuss the dynamical properties of the full system.

Knowledge of the temporal trends and spatial patterns will have significant implications for effective preparedness in future epidemics. Our objective was to investigate the temporal trends and the nature of the spatial interaction of cholera incidences, dwelling on an outbreak in the Kumasi Metropolis, Ghana. We developed generalized nonparametric and segmented regression models to describe the epidemic curve. We used the pair correlation function to describe the nature of spatial clustering parameters such as the maximum scale of interaction and the scale of maximal interaction. The epidemic rose suddenly to a peak with 40% daily increments of incidences. The decay, however, was slower with 5% daily reductions. Spatial interaction occurred within 1 km radius. Maximal interaction occurred within 0.3 km, suggesting a household level of interactions. Significant clustering during the first week suggests secondary transmissions sparked the outbreak. The nonparametric and segmented regression models, together with the pair correlation function, contribute to understanding the transmission dynamics. The issue of underreporting remains a challenge we seek to address in future. These findings, however, will have innovative implications for developing preventive measures during future epidemics.

Case-control studies are conducted to identify cholera transmission routes. Water, sanitation, and hygiene (WASH) exposures can facilitate cholera transmission (risk factors) or interrupt transmission (protective factors). To our knowledge, the association between WASH exposures and cholera from case-control studies has not been systematically analyzed. A systematic review was completed to close this gap, including describing the theory of risk and protection, developing inclusion criteria, searching and selecting studies, assessing quality of evidence, and summarizing associations between cholera and seven predicted WASH protective factors and eight predicted WASH risk factors using meta-analysis and sensitivity analysis. Overall, 47 articles describing 51 individual studies from 30 countries met the inclusion criteria. All eight predicted risk factors were associated with higher odds of cholera (odds ratio [OR] = 1.9-5.6), with heterogeneity ( I ) of 0-92%. Of the predicted protective factors, five of seven were associated with lower odds of cholera (OR = 0.35-1.4), with heterogeneity of 57-91%; exceptions were insignificant associations for improved water source (OR = 1.1, heterogeneity 91%) and improved sanitation (OR = 1.4, heterogeneity 68%). Results were robust; 3/70 (5%) associations changed directionality or significance in sensitivity analysis. Meta-analysis results highlight that predicted risk factors are associated with cholera; however, predicted protective factors are not as consistently protective. This variable protection is attributed to 1) cholera transmission via multiple routes and 2) WASH intervention implementation quality variation. Water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions should address multiple transmission routes and be well implemented, according to international guidance, to ensure that field effectiveness matches theoretical efficacy. In addition, future case-control studies should detail WASH characteristics to contextualize results.2 ) of 0-92%. Of the predicted protective factors, five of seven were associated with lower odds of cholera (OR = 0.35-1.4), with heterogeneity of 57-91%; exceptions were insignificant associations for improved water source (OR = 1.1, heterogeneity 91%) and improved sanitation (OR = 1.4, heterogeneity 68%). Results were robust; 3/70 (5%) associations changed directionality or significance in sensitivity analysis. Meta-analysis results highlight that predicted risk factors are associated with cholera; however, predicted protective factors are not as consistently protective. This variable protection is attributed to 1) cholera transmission via multiple routes and 2) WASH intervention implementation quality variation. Water, sanitation, and hygiene interventions should address multiple transmission routes and be well implemented, according to international guidance, to ensure that field effectiveness matches theoretical efficacy. In addition, future case-control studies should detail WASH characteristics to contextualize results.

Background: Household contacts of cholera patients are at a 100 times higher risk of developing cholera than the general population. The objective of this study was to examine the incidence of V. cholerae infections among household contacts of cholera patients in a rural setting in Bangladesh, to identify risk factors for V. cholerae infections among this population, and to investigate transmission pathways of V. cholerae using multilocus variable-number tandem-repeat analysis (MLVA)., Methodology/principal Findings: Stool from household contacts, source water and stored water samples were collected from cholera patient households on Day 1, 3, 5, and 7 after the presentation of the index patient at a health facility. Two hundred thirty clinical and water V. cholerae isolates were analyzed by MLVA. Thirty seven percent of households had at least one household contact with a V. cholerae infection. Thirteen percent of households had V. cholerae in their water source, and 27% had V. cholerae in stored household drinking water. Household contacts with V. cholerae in their water source had a significantly higher odds of symptomatic cholera (Odds Ratio (OR): 5.49, 95% Confidence Interval (CI): 1.07, 28.08). Contacts consuming street vended food had a significantly higher odds of a V. cholerae infection (OR: 9.45, 95% CI: 2.14, 41.72). Older age was significantly associated with a lower odds of a V. cholerae infection (OR: 0.96, 95% CI: 0.93, 0.99). Households with both water and clinical V. cholerae-positive samples all had isolates that were closely related by MLVA., Conclusions/significance: These findings emphasize the need for interventions targeting water treatment and food hygiene to reduce V. cholerae infections., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Objective: To study the hypothesis that migratory waterfowl are possible disseminators of Vibrio cholerae and Aeromonas., Methods: We monitored the presence of V. cholerae and Aeromonas in three wild waterfowl species., Results: V. cholerae and Aeromonas species were isolated and identified from intestine samples of little egrets and black-crowned night herons. Only Aeromonas species were isolated from black-headed gulls. The majority of Aeromonas isolates were A. veronii. Twenty-three V. cholerae serogroups were identified. V. cholerae serogroup O1 was found in the intestine DNA extractions from four little egrets and black-crowned night herons; six birds carried cholera toxin subunit A gene., Conclusion: Wild waterfowl species may carry pathogenic V. cholerae O1 and non-O1 serogroups and Aeromonas species in their intestine. The migration of waterfowl is a potential mechanism for global distribution of V. cholerae and Aeromonas., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

On 20 June 2015, a cholera outbreak affecting more than 30 people was reported in a fishing village, Katwe, in Kasese District, south-western Uganda. We investigated this outbreak to identify the mode of transmission and to recommend control measures. We defined a suspected case as onset of acute watery diarrhoea between 1 June and 15 July 2015 in a resident of Katwe village; a confirmed case was a suspected case with Vibrio cholerae cultured from stool. For case finding, we reviewed medical records and actively searched for cases in the community. In a case-control investigation we compared exposure histories of 32 suspected case-persons and 128 age-matched controls. We also conducted an environmental assessment on how the exposures had occurred. We found 61 suspected cases (attack rate = 4.9/1000) during this outbreak, of which eight were confirmed. The primary case-person had onset on 16 June; afterwards cases sharply increased, peaked on 19 June, and rapidly declined afterwards. After 22 June, eight scattered cases occurred. The case-control investigation showed that 97% (31/32) of cases and 62% (79/128) of controls usually collected water from inside a water-collection site "X" (ORM-H = 16; 95% CI = 2.4-107). The primary case-person who developed symptoms while fishing, reportedly came ashore in the early morning hours on 17 June, and defecated "near" water-collection site X. We concluded that this cholera outbreak was caused by drinking lake water collected from inside the lakeshore water-collection site X. At our recommendations, the village administration provided water chlorination tablets to the villagers, issued water boiling advisory to the villagers, rigorously disinfected all patients' faeces and, three weeks later, fixed the tap-water system., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: For almost 50 years sub-Saharan Africa, including Uganda, has experienced several outbreaks due to Vibrio cholerae. Our aim was to determine the genetic relatedness and spread of strains responsible for cholera outbreaks in Uganda., Methodology/principal Findings: Sixty-three V. cholerae isolates collected from outbreaks in Uganda between 2014 and 2016 were tested using multiplex polymerase chain reaction (PCR), multi-locus variable number of tandem repeat analysis (MLVA) and whole genome sequencing (WGS). Three closely related MLVA clonal complexes (CC) were identified: CC1, 32% (20/63); CC2, 40% (25/63) and CC3, 28% (18/63). Each CC contained isolates from a different WGS clade. These clades were contained in the third wave of the 7th cholera pandemic strain, two clades were contained in the transmission event (T)10 lineage and other in T13. Analysing the dates and genetic relatedness revealed that V. cholerae genetic lineages spread between districts within Uganda and across national borders., Conclusion: The V. cholerae strains showed local and regional transmission within Uganda and the East African region. To prevent, control and eliminate cholera, these countries should implement strong cross-border collaboration and regional coordination of preventive activities., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Computational models of cholera transmission can provide objective insights into the course of an ongoing epidemic and aid decision making on allocation of health care resources. However, models are typically designed, calibrated and interpreted post-hoc. Here, we report the efforts of a team from academia, field research and humanitarian organizations to model in near real-time the Haitian cholera outbreak after Hurricane Matthew in October 2016, to assess risk and to quantitatively estimate the efficacy of a then ongoing vaccination campaign. A rainfall-driven, spatially-explicit meta-community model of cholera transmission was coupled to a data assimilation scheme for computing short-term projections of the epidemic in near real-time. The model was used to forecast cholera incidence for the months after the passage of the hurricane (October-December 2016) and to predict the impact of a planned oral cholera vaccination campaign. Our first projection, from October 29 to December 31, predicted the highest incidence in the departments of Grande Anse and Sud, accounting for about 45% of the total cases in Haiti. The projection included a second peak in cholera incidence in early December largely driven by heavy rainfall forecasts, confirming the urgency for rapid intervention. A second projection (from November 12 to December 31) used updated rainfall forecasts to estimate that 835 cases would be averted by vaccinations in Grande Anse (90% Prediction Interval [PI] 476-1284) and 995 in Sud (90% PI 508-2043). The experience gained by this modeling effort shows that state-of-the-art computational modeling and data-assimilation methods can produce informative near real-time projections of cholera incidence. Collaboration among modelers and field epidemiologists is indispensable to gain fast access to field data and to translate model results into operational recommendations for emergency management during an outbreak. Future efforts should thus draw together multi-disciplinary teams to ensure model outputs are appropriately based, interpreted and communicated., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Cholera emergence is strongly linked to local environmental and ecological context. The 1991-2004 pandemic emerged in Perú and spread north into Ecuador's El Oro province, making this a key site for potential re-emergence. Machala, El Oro, is a port city of 250,000 inhabitants, near the Peruvian border. Many livelihoods depend on the estuarine system, from fishing for subsistence and trade, to domestic water use. In 2014, we conducted biweekly sampling for 10 months in five estuarine locations, across a gradient of human use, and ranging from inland to ocean. We measured water-specific environmental variables implicated in cholera growth and persistence: pH, temperature, salinity, and algal concentration, and evaluated samples in five months for pathogenic and non-pathogenic Vibrio cholerae , by polymerase chain reaction (PCR). We found environmental persistence of pandemic strains O1 and O139, but no evidence for toxigenic strains. Vibrio cholerae presence was coupled to algal and salinity concentration, and sites exhibited considerable seasonal and spatial heterogeneity. This study indicates that environmental conditions in Machala are optimal for cholera re-emergence, with risk peaking during September, and higher risk near urban periphery low-income communities. This highlights a need for surveillance of this coupled cholera-estuarine system to anticipate potential future cholera outbreaks., Competing Interests: The authors declare no conflict of interest.

Background: Cholera is known to be transmitted from person to person, and inactivated oral cholera vaccines (OCVs) have been shown to confer herd protection via interruption of this transmission. However, the geographic dimensions of chains of person-to-person transmission of cholera are uncertain. The ability of OCVs to confer herd protection was used to define these dimensions in two cholera-endemic settings, one in rural Bangladesh and the other in urban India., Methods: Two large randomized, placebo-controlled trials of inactivated OCVs, one in rural Matlab, Bangladesh and the other in urban Kolkata, India, were reanalyzed. Vaccine herd protection was evaluated by relating the risk of cholera in placebo recipients to vaccine coverage of surrounding residents residing within concentric rings. In Matlab, concentric rings in 100-m increments up to 700m were evaluated; in Kolkata, 50-m increments up to 350m were evaluated., Results: One hundred and eight cholera cases among 24667 placebo recipients were detected during 1year of post-vaccination follow-up at Matlab; 128 cholera cases among 34968 placebo recipients were detected during 3 years of follow-up in Kolkata. Consistent inverse relationships were observed between vaccine coverage of the ring and the risk of cholera in the central placebo recipient for rings with radii up to 500m in Matlab and up to 150m in Kolkata., Conclusions: These results suggest that the dimensions of chains of person-to-person transmission in endemic settings can be quite large and may differ substantially from setting to setting. Using OCVs as 'probes' to define these dimensions can inform geographical targeting strategies for the deployment of these vaccines in endemic settings., (Copyright © 2017 The Author(s). Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Ring vaccinations create a zone of immune contacts around a case to prevent further disease transmission and have been successfully employed in the eradication of smallpox and the control of other infections. Millions of oral cholera vaccine (OCV) doses have been effectively deployed through mass vaccination campaigns. But there are situations when the OCV supply, resources, and time are limited and alternative strategies need to be considered. People living in close proximity of cholera cases often share risk factors such as contaminated water supply and poor sanitation. Targeting people within a given radius around a cholera case for intervention including vaccination, improved water supply and sanitation may be a practical and effective approach. A ring oral cholera vaccination strategy could be considered before, after or as an alternative to a mass vaccination approach. We review here the use of the ring vaccinations in general and specifically during cholera outbreaks.