1. HESPERIA REleASE+: Improving Solar Proton Event Forecasting by Means of Automated Recognition of Type‐III Radio Bursts.
- Author
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Posner, Arik, Malandraki, Olga Ε., Karavolos, Michalis, Tziotziou, Kostas, Smanis, Fanis, Heber, Bernd, Dröge, Henrik, Kühl, Patrick, and Veldes, Giorgos P.
- Subjects
SOLAR energetic particles ,SUN observations ,RADIO waves ,RELATIVISTIC electrons ,SPACE flight to the moon - Abstract
This work reports on an attempt toward improving the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE): the occurrence of a type‐III radio burst as a precondition for a REleASE forecast. REleASE forecasts are based on the detection of early arrival of near‐relativistic electrons ahead of more hazardous protons from Solar Energetic Particle (SEP) events. The goal is to allow astronauts on a Lunar or Mars mission sufficient advance warning to reach a radiation shelter to minimize radiation dose exposure. We test a new system that sets a condition of the occurrence of a type‐III radio burst, thus adding independent evidence of particle escape from the Sun, with the aim of reducing known sources of false‐alarms of the existing REleASE system. The High Energy Solar Particle Events foRecastIng and Analysis (HESPERIA) REleASE+ system, which takes advantage of availability of real‐time solar radio observations during the passage of STEREO‐A by Earth in 2023, has now been incorporated in the HESPERIA framework. We discuss the techniques used for automatic detection of type‐III radio bursts preparing for its real‐time implementation, the determination of selection criteria for type‐III bursts that are candidates for solar proton events in the Earth‐moon system, and first results of the combined system. Plain Language Summary: This work builds on a previously developed method to predict arrivals of hazardous charged particles, protons accelerated near the Sun, at Earth's vicinity by utilizing less‐hazardous, faster moving electrons that are also suddenly accelerated and released near the Sun. Predicting radiation hazards, even only an hour in advance, is important for safe human space exploration activities as it allows for executing measures that would ultimately reduce exposure of the crew to high dose rates. This new method uses an additional, independently measured piece of information, radio waves generated by electrons that escape from the Sun, as input driving the radiation forecasting system. The combination of the original warning system, the Relativistic Electron Alert System for Exploration (REleASE) with radio waves of type III, is referred to as HESPERIA REleASE+. We lay out (a) how this new system can identify type‐III radio bursts in near‐real‐time, (b) how this new information is used in combination with REleASE, and (c) test the performance of the new system over a duration of about 2 years. The study is enabled by the passage of the Solar‐Terrestrial Relations Observatory (STEREO)‐A spacecraft by the Earth in 2023, which provides solar radio observations in near‐real‐time. Key Points: We introduce automated detection of type‐III radio bursts in real time in STEREO‐A beacon dataWe combine type‐III radio burst observations with relativistic‐electron‐based solar particle event forecastingWe outline implementation of the combined forecasting system and test its performance over 2 years [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Published
- 2024
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