1. Adapting French COVID-19 vaccination campaign duration to variant dissemination
- Author
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Pascal Roy, Catherine Pothier, Anne Eyraud-Loisel, Nicolas Ponthus, Philippe Vanhems, Simon Pageaud, Jean-Pierre Bertoglio, Alexis Bienvenüe, Nicolas Leboisne, Romain Gauchon, François Gueyffier, Jean Iwaz, Christophe Rigotti, Stéphane Loisel, Hospices Civils de Lyon (HCL), Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558 (LBBE), Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Tribologie et Dynamique des Systèmes (LTDS), École Centrale de Lyon (ECL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État (ENTPE)-Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Saint Etienne-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université de Lyon, Extraction de Caractéristiques et Identification (imagine), Laboratoire d'InfoRmatique en Image et Systèmes d'information (LIRIS), Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-École Centrale de Lyon (ECL), Université de Lyon-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon), Université de Lyon-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2), Data Mining and Machine Learning (DM2L), Artificial Evolution and Computational Biology (BEAGLE), Université de Lyon-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-Laboratoire de Biométrie et Biologie Evolutive - UMR 5558 (LBBE), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de Recherche en Informatique et en Automatique (Inria)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-VetAgro Sup - Institut national d'enseignement supérieur et de recherche en alimentation, santé animale, sciences agronomiques et de l'environnement (VAS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Laboratoire de Mecanique des Fluides et d'Acoustique (LMFA), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie - UMR (CIRI), École normale supérieure - Lyon (ENS Lyon)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Lyon 1, Ecole Centrale de Lyon, INSA Lyon, Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État (ENTPE)-Ecole Nationale d'Ingénieurs de Saint Etienne (ENISE)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-École Centrale de Lyon (ECL), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-École Centrale de Lyon (ECL), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Inria Grenoble - Rhône-Alpes, Centre International de Recherche en Infectiologie (CIRI), École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-Institut National de la Santé et de la Recherche Médicale (INSERM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), and Rigotti, Christophe
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0303 health sciences ,medicine.medical_specialty ,education.field_of_study ,business.industry ,Public health ,Population ,Outbreak ,International health ,Disease ,3. Good health ,Vaccination ,03 medical and health sciences ,0302 clinical medicine ,[SDV.SPEE] Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ,Intensive care ,Pandemic ,medicine ,[SDV.SPEE]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Santé publique et épidémiologie ,030212 general & internal medicine ,business ,education ,030304 developmental biology ,Demography - Abstract
BackgroundThe outbreak of SARS-CoV-2 virus has caused a major international health crisis with serious consequences in terms of public health and economy. In France, two lockdown periods were decided in 2020 to avoid the saturation of intensive care units (ICU) and an increase in mortality. The rapid dissemination of variant SARS-CoV-2 VOC 202012/01 has strongly influenced the course of the epidemic. Vaccines have been rapidly developed. Their efficacy against the severe forms of the disease has been established, and their efficacy against disease transmission is under evaluation. The aim of this paper is to compare the efficacy of several vaccination strategies in the presence of variants in controlling the COVID-19 epidemic through population immunity.MethodsAn agent-based model was designed to simulate with different scenarios the evolution of COVID-19 pandemic in France over 2021 and 2022. The simulations were carried out ignoring the occurrence of variants then taking into account their diffusion over time. The expected effects of three Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions (Relaxed-NPI, Intensive-NPI, and Extended-NPI) to limit the epidemic extension were compared. The expected efficacy of vaccines were the values recently estimated in preventing severe forms of the disease (75% and 94%) for the current used vaccines in France (Pfizer-BioNTech and Moderna since January 11, 2021, and AstraZeneca since February 2, 2021). All vaccination campaigns reproduced an advanced age-based priority advised by the Haute Autorité de Santé. Putative reductions of virus transmission were fixed at 0, 50, 75 and 90%. The effects of four vaccination campaign durations (6-month, 12-month, 18-month and 24-month) were compared.ResultsIn the absence of vaccination, the presence of variants led to reject the Relaxed-NPI because of a high expected number of deaths (170 to 210 thousands) and the significant overload of ICUs from which 35 thousand patients would be deprived. In comparison with the situation without vaccination, the number of deaths was divided by 7 without ICU saturation with a 6-month vaccination campaign. A 12-month campaign would divide the number of death by 3 with Intensive-NPI and by 6 with Extended-NPI (the latter being necessary to avoid ICU saturation). With 18-month and 24-month vaccination campaigns without Extended-NPI, the number of deaths and ICU admissions would explode.ConclusionAmong the four compared strategies the 6-month vaccination campaign seems to be the best response to changes in the dynamics of the epidemic due to the variants. The race against the COVID-19 epidemic is a race of vaccination strategy. Any further vaccination delay would increase the need of strengthened measures such as Extended-NPI to limit the number of deaths and avoid ICU saturation.
- Published
- 2021