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This paper deals with the present position of a specialized scientific library, the increase in the number of such libraries, and their development in conjunction with that of the institutes and laboratories to which they belong. It describes the danger for these libraries of too great expansion and the need to restrict themselves to a well-defined area. The different categories of specialized scientific libraries are reviewed, as well as the role of each of these categories vis-à-vis overburdened university libraries. There is an account of the assistance given [by specialized scientific libraries] to university libraries now and in the near future.

The author comments on a paper by economist Carl Christ concerning properties of nine econometric models. He states that Christ made a number of comparative statements about the econometric models that may result in casual readers misinterpreting the comments. He mentions that the comparative statements could be interpreted to concern the statistical properties of the models, the models theoretical quality, or the forecasting ability of the models. He states that these property statements can be independent from each other, with a model being a poor forecaster but having excellent statistical properties, and that they imply nothing about the model's degree of confirmation.

In a critique of the paper, "Severity of Formal Sanctions As a Deterrent to Deviant Behavior," in the 1970 issue of the journal "Law and Society Review," scholar Paul E. Meehi has questioned the interpretation of the data in a particular section. On the basis of that evidence, it is concluded that severity of formal sanctions show no direct deterrent effect on the deviant behavior under consideration, but do appear to have an indirect deterrent effect through their impact on the normative climate of the campus. In challenging this interpretation of the data, Meehi expressed concern that non social science readers of the periodical "Law & Society Review," might be misled by the use of "causal language" in the interpretation of these tabulations from cross sectional data. In this extension of earlier analysis, this article attempts to explicate some difficulties in interpreting findings from cross sectional research and how these difficulties can be dealt with. Specifically, it is shown how cross sectional data can serve not only to test predictions of a causal model, but also to evaluate its causal assumptions.

The article presents information on a research investigating how do adults explain occurrences with which they are not familiar. During the research, the subjects were cordial and cooperative, with very minor exceptions. During the first demonstration, the explanations of predictions included such terms as "air resistance," "more mass per area," "density of what surface there is," and the like. Out of thirty-five, thirty-one subjects predicted correctly. In the second demonstration, there was a sheet of paper on boxes. Predictions in this case varied considerably. In the third demonstration, spool and card experiment was done which is another example of the Bernoulli effect. Twelve predicted the card would fall or drop, 11 predicted that it would be blown away. In fourth demonstration, the prediction given by 11 was correct.

The article presents abstracts of articles related to research and forecasting appearing in various periodicals. Articles abstracted include "New Research in Marketing," edited by Lee E. Preston, published by the University of California at Berkeley's Institute of Business and Economic Research, "The Home Building Market," published in May 1966 by Sweet's Construction Catalog Services, and "A British Look at Market Research in the U. S. A.," by Harold P. Hodge, appearing in the December 1965 issue of "Profit Evolution No. 8."

This paper is part of our continuing analysis of common stock price fluctuations, which we call volatility patterns. Here, our focus is upon industrial stock price indices. We investigate (1) whether or not an industry can be classified according to its stock price volatility--i.e, whether a series of volatility statistics, each computed for a relatively short time span, will be fairly constant for individual industries over time, and (2) if inter-industry volatility differentials remain constant over time. Part I presents a brief discussion of general issues related to the topic of volatility. Part II summarizes the computational models, and Part III presents the empirical results yielded by the industry study. Part IV summarizes our findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This is the first of a series of papers designed to report the various stages of a longitudinal research project on the study of managerial effectiveness. The purposes of this article are: (1) to set forth the various dimensions of the overall research effort; (2) to present a review of the research on the prediction of managerial success or effectiveness; and, (3) to establish the focus for a second paper subsequently to appear in the Academy of Management Journal describing the results and implications of an intermediate research effort. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Presents a paper on the relative occupational success of blacks and whites in the United States. How blacks get less in the job market; Goal of the paper to present the results of an extensive study of data on the employment of young men; Definition of occupations and measurings of earnings within occupations; Average wages rates of black and white males; Occupational success; The model for weighing the information; Comparison of blacks and whites with equal endowments; Comparison of random groups of blacks and whites; Comparisons with actual distributions; Projections to 1973; Discussion by the panel on the findings.

This paper applies residual analysis to build up improved forecasts from exponential smoothing models. The resulting model is not unknown, but the method of achieving it is more straightforward and intuitive than existing methods. The paper also shows that the model is identical to IMA(k, k) forecasting models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper derives the class of nonstationary time-series representations for which exponential smoothing of arbitrary order minimizes mean-square forecast error. It points out that these representations are included in the class of integrated moving averages developed by BOX AND JENKINS, permitting various procedures to be applied to estimating the smoothing constant and determining the appropriate order of smoothing. These results further permit the principle of parsimony in parameterization to be applied to any choice between exponential smoothing and alternative forecasting procedures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Information on the subjects discussed during the second annual meeting of the Operations Research Society of America held in Chicago, Illinois on May 21 and 22, 1954 is presented. An invited address entitled The Basic Processes of Operations Research and Their Relation to Management was delivered by M. L. Hurni of General Electric Co. A retiring presidential address was presented by R. F. Rinehart. Wroe Alderson of Alderson and Sessions presented four invited papers on applications to marketing and forecasting.

The article presents comments of the author on the article "Is Prediction Feasible in Social Work? An Inquiry Based Upon a Sociological Study of Parole Records," by Ernest W. Burgess. I am to discuss Burgess' paper with respect to its general methodology. A personal reference, which will disclose my standpoint of interest, will perhaps be pardoned. In a publication of 1914, I endeavored to find a basis for predicting the future political behavior of farmers and working men with respect to each other. For this purpose I developed certain indices based on the previously recorded votes of individuals of both classes in state legislatures.' In what I conceive to be their essentials, my method and that which Burgess has used in the paper of today are the same. We both have taken account of simple alternatives in behavior, an aye or no vote in one instance; conformity with parole or its violation in the other. In neither case, that is, has the behavior measured been regarded as variable. We both have employed the percentage of individuals in a general group who comply with one of the alternatives as a normal expectancy, or probability ratio by which to compare the corresponding behavior tendencies of subgroups, as expressed by similar percentages within the latter.

This paper centers on what happens to an exponential smoothing forecasting system when the smoothing parameters are change. It gives sufficient conditions under which several proposed models give numerically identical results, and notes a surprising symmetry in one basic model between the smoothing constants for the smoothed average and the smoothed trend. The paper defines smoothing-constant values that cause oscillatory behavior, discusses the difficulties caused by oscillation, and finds that commonly used values of the smoothing constants lie in a region of oscillation of varying period. It uses these results in an anlytical study of the tradeoff between responsiveness and variance; some dominant choices emerge. Finally, on the basis of these results, the paper examines several sample sets of data from the literature, and discusses implications for the choice of smoothing constants in complex situations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article the author comments on the research paper related to the prediction of business failures using accounting data by Jarrod W. Wilcox. The author remarks that in evaluating the present work, one could discuss the model at the conceptual level based on strictly paired observations and tests in which a failed firm is paired with a nonfailed firm with similar total assets from the same industry. Perhaps more important, the strict pairing in the tests means that classification errors also occur only in pairs in Wilcox's tests. According to the author, any alternative prediction method based on more input data and more calculation should at least be clearly better than these success rates, and should warrant the extra cost involved.

Assume that you have been asked by the president of a large firm to advise him on the most desirable levels of decentralization in order to control the activities of different departments within his organization. Upon what factors would you be likely to base your decision! A recent investigation indicates that to establish appropriate levels of decentralization, one's decisions should be, at least partially, based on: the types of productive tasks workers perform in general; and, the degree of predictability of work demands, in particular. This paper provides a partial explanation of several non-administrative cause for differences in the degrees of discretion workers exert in performing their tasks. Specifically we attempt to trace the influence of two factors upon discretion. One is the predictability of work demands; the other is the professionalization of jobs. Before attempting to analyze these relationships, let us take a brief view of the research design and the components of discretion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on economic forecasting when the subject of the forecast is influenced by the forecast. It has been argued that when forecasts influence economic behavior they may serve as an instrument of control, and that in such instances, the numerical accuracy of forecasts loses its relevance. What is relevant in such instances is the self-reinforcing power of the forecast, that is, the power of the forecast to make the variable in question move in the direction of the forecasted change. But surely all that really matters, from the point of view of control, is the discrepancy between the desired or target value of the forecast variable and its actual or recorded value. A forecast which is successful in terms of the above mentioned discrepancy may be self-nullifying, self-reinforcing, or neither. Whether the forecast is self-reinforcing or sell-nullifying is, in fact, quite irrelevant to the problem of economic control. Economists Emile Grunberg and Franco Modigliani have demonstrated that, if upper and lower bounds are imposed on the forecast variable, an accurate forecast is always possible.

This paper describes a planning model designed to be used by managers of family-planning systems to improve understanding, forecasting, and planning. The macro-flow model describes the patient movement through post-partum and nonpost-partum programs. The flows model the phenomena of: outreach recruitment, continuance, post-partum checkups, switching methods, referral, migration, contraceptive-use experience, private protection, method effectiveness, advertising response, follow up, abortion, and medical services. Strategic variables can be linked to the flow parameters to produce capacity requirements and budgetary implications. The model output includes benefit measures of total active patients, couple years of protection, 'births protected,' and unwanted births prevented. The fertility aspects of births prevented are modeled through a nonstationary Markov process submodel that considers demographic phenomena without burdening the basic flow structure. The input procedures used to process patient-visit, outreach, clinic-survey, and experimental data are discussed and some empirical results are reported. The combination of data-based estimates and subjective judgment is done by 'fitting' the model to past observed data. Testing and control are done by 'tracking' model performance through conditional prediction, diagnosis, and updating. The model is implemented in an on-line, conversational program that facilitates evolutionary model building by allowing the user to specify his model options. The application and testing of the model in the Atlanta Area Family Planning System are discussed and the experiences of managers in using the model to gain new insights, forecasts, budgets, and plans are reported. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A comparison of the final league tables of the 1971-72 football season, with forecasts made by Goal before the season began, shows significant positive correlation. This seems to indicate that football results am not pure chance (although them is obviously a considerable dement of chance). The paper questions how the data would have been handled by statisticians who do not approve of significance tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A brief discussion of Statistical Quality Control Charting procedures is first presented with special reference to the relevance of the objectives and assumptions. An approach to the design of discrete feedforward and feed. back control schemes, which are of great importance for example, in the chemical industry, is then given. This approach to control employs discrete stochastic and dynamic models discussed in Part I of this paper (Box and Jenkins, 1968) and has a close !ink with the forecasting problems discussed there. The control algorithms obtained are ideally suited to discrete digital computer control. However, for common simple situations the Algorithms may be represented by suitable charts or nomograms which may be employed to obtain improved manual control. The paper ends with a discussion of a problem typical of that arising in the parts manufacturing industry. Here, attention must be given to the cost of making an adjustment to the machine as well as to the cost of being off target and to the stochastic nature of the disturbance. An example is given where the appropriate form of action is like that required by Roberts's modification of a Shewhart chart. However, the justification required to make such action appropriate is very different from that previously given. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes an approach to data analysis that assists the investigator in discriminating among specific relations corresponding to alternative scientific predictions about qualitative variates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent article Baruch Lev analyzed 29 peak-demand forecasts (consisting of 1917 monthly forecasts) made by Commonwealth Edison Company between 1955 and 1966. The conclusions made by Lev from analysis of these actual forecasts bear a close resemblance to the kinds of conclusions that we derived from an application of time series analysis to historical data to produce forecasts. It is the purpose of this paper to show how the conclusions which Lev made about forecast errors would also be true of the errors resulting from forecasts derived solely from analysis of historical data. Although in no way definitive, such a demonstration of consistency between actual forecasts made by businessmen and statistical forecasts made only from historical data yields further evidence of the practical applicability of time series analysis to forecasting problems in real life. In particular Lev concluded that the major factor affecting the distribution of forecast errors was the month of the forecast and that the "… interval between prediction and realization has only a slight effect on the prediction errors." Mr. Lev's analysis of these observations showed that the expected value of forecast errors was about one quarter of one percent and independent of the time interval of the forecast. In addition he pointed out that the variance of the log forecast errors increased slightly with the prediction interval but was affected more directly by the month which was forecasted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper draws attention to the profound changes that are taking place in the proportions of the population of Great Britain that are single, married and widowed at various ages. These changes are the net result of a number of demographic, economic and sociological developments, such as the decrease in mortality rates and the changing balance of the sexes. After discussing an abortive attempt to forecast the future progress of the proportions, based on changes that have taken place in the recent past, the paper describes a method of estimating the pro- portions of each sex that are likely to be found in each marital status at the various attained ages in future years if the experience of the years 1950-52 in Great Britain as regards rates of marriage, divorce, widowhood and re-marriage continue indefinitely, subject to minor modifications to ensure that the numbers of marriages, etc., for the two sexes are consistent, and that the total number of married men equals that of married women. The variations in the proportions in each marital status in Great Britain during the past thirty years and those to be expected during the next thirty years, and ultimately, if the experience of the years 1950-52 persists, are set out and analysed. It is shown that, whereas the proportion of men never marrying has up to the present been about half the proportion of women never marrying, the continuance of present trends would result in the proportion of men never marrying becoming double that for women. This notable change is to be attributed, in the main, to the effect of improved vitality in childhood in replacing the excess of women at the younger adult ages by an excess of men. It is pointed out that, in the event, this change may not be fully realised, because a net emigration of men or a net immigration of women may mitigate the relative dearth of potential brides in future; but the proportions never marrying set out in the paper show the directions towards which current conditions are tending. The consequential changes for other marital statuses are also set out and discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Refunding is the operation by which the issuer of a bond calls it before maturity in order to replace it with another issue. The chief reason for calling is the interest saving which a new bond may make possible. In deciding whether to call a bond at any given time, the issuer must consider not only the potential savings from the current refunding, but also from future refundings up to some horizon fixed by financial policy. These savings must also be compared with those resulting from the decision to postpone refunding. This paper formulates the refunding problem in terms of a dynamic programming model in which the term structure of interest rates is utilized to obtain information about the future course of interest rates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article discusses forecast evaluation in accounting. Accounting data are often used in the development of forecasts and accountants are often called on to make forecasts. Development of a variable overhead rate per direct labor hour may, for example, be viewed as development of a forecast--whether it is used in a standard cost system, in a budget, or in a product mix decision. Similarly, establishment of a depreciation policy requires a forecast of service life. Furthermore, the ability to forecast some specific outcome has been offered as a criterion for selection among accounting alternatives. But, whatever its ultimate purpose, development of a forecast constitutes a decision--a conscious choice among alternatives. The concern in this paper is limited to this decision aspect of forecasting. In particular, in the first section it is demonstrated that selection among forecast alternatives is a subset of the accountant's general problem of selection among information alternatives. Following this, characterization is done of prevailing methods of selecting among forecast alternatives as a simplification of the basic information choice problem. The paper then concludes with two illustrative simulations.

Manpower planning is no novelty in the Royal Navy. It has been accepted as a necessity for many years. Its roots lie far back in history. It began as soon as there was a need - as soon as naval careers replaced a policy of 'hire and fire'. The transition to a career Navy began towards the end of the 17th century and was largely completed by about 1850. The need to plan increased yet more after 1850 as the technical complexity of the Navy grew, and the need was further reinforced after the 1939-45 War when new social and economic conditions brought a real risk that the Navy would not be able to recruit all the men needed. The ability to plan depended on the development of an appropriate organization, and the availability of appropriate expertise and resources. In the early days, officer-planning could be done reasonably adequately with a few Navy Lists, a quill-pen and a mathematical mind. This process is still good enough for a few very small groups of naval personnel, but for the Navy as a whole, all the techniques of social and management sciences need to be brought to bear, and geared into an organization for effective decision-making. This paper attempts to describe the main features of the organization for planning and decision-making as it exists today. Readers who are familiar with the organization will note omissions. For example, except in this paragraph, there is no mention of the Defence Council or the Admiralty Board, or of the Second Sea Lord who is responsible for all naval personnel matters. The fact that there are levels of responsibility above and alongside those described - including, of course. Parliament - must be taken as read. The paper describes only the essential core of organization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Filani M. O. (1973) Air traffic forecasting: An input-output technique approach, Reg. Studies 7, 331–338. In the United States, air traffic forecasting has been too aggregative and narrow with little or no consideration for the highly interdependent nature of traffic exchanges among the cities within the entire national air transport network. The present paper is an attempt to eliminate this deficiency through the use of the basic input-output technique. Comparisons are made between actual and predicted traffic for the nation's 14 major cities for five consecutive time periods. The paper also demonstrates the temporal internal consistency in the interaction coefficients among the cities and on this basis predicts their 1975 total traffic. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

The article presents comments of the author on the article "Is Prediction Feasible in Social Work? An Inquiry Based Upon a Sociological Study of Parole Records," by Ernest W. Burgess. The paper by Burgess will be discussed from three points of view,its general methodological significance, its specific statistical methods and its limitations for practical purposes. Heretofore behavior has been studied principally in relation to specific factors, each factor being treated as an entity in itself and considered apart from any other factor. The results of this method have been largely negative, for the studies have shown that, when other things are equal, the difference between criminals and non-criminals on any one item is comparatively small. The next step evidently was to devise a method by which these small differences could be massed so that their combined effect could be seen. The significance of Burgess' paper is that it takes this next step, providing a method by which the massing or accumulation of factors can be measured or demonstrated. At the same time he has included a larger number of items than had been included in any published report and has used the composite rate as a basis of prediction. He has invented a scientific tool of very great utility both in the explanation of behavior and the administration of agencies which attempt to control behavior.

Exponential smoothing is one means of preparing short-term sales forecasts on a routine basis. To use exponential smoothing, however, one must decide the proper values for the smoothing constants in the forecasting model. One method for selecting the smoothing constants involves conducting a grid search to evaluate a wide range of possible values. An alternative method, called pattern search, is presented in this paper and is compared to the grid search procedure. Two criteria are used in comparing these procedures : (1) the standard deviation of the forecast error, and (2) the computing time necessary for a solution. The results of this comparison indicate that, when the exponential smoothing model includes trend and seasonal adjustments, pattern search requires far less computer time than the grid search procedure to produce smoothing constant values for which the forecast error values are comparable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstracts of research and forecasting articles appearing in various periodicals. Articles abstracted include "Sales Forecasting Techniques Used by Selected Life Insurance Companies," by James P. O'Grady, Jr., appearing in the March 1965 issue of "The Journal of Risk and Insurance," "Life Insurance Fact Book, 1965" published by the Institute of Life Insurance, and "The Real Truth about Forecasting," by H. G. Hunt, appearing in the July 1965 issue of "Manager."

This paper deals with the development of a mathematical model for controlling inventory in a real-life situation. The wide gap between mathematical theory and the building of an actual model is stressed, particularly the necessary, and often difficult, task of adapting known theoretical results to a specific problem. The inventory model chosen is one which approximates optimality and has been modified to accept, as input, demand forecasts from a forecasting model. The inventory-control procedure utilized is of the continuous-review trigger-point order-quantity type, where the trigger point and order quantity 'float', that is, are adjusted periodically depending on the demand forecasts issued. Simulations are performed comparing the proposed inventory and forecasting models with current operating procedures to determine an estimate of the magnitude of the savings possible under the new system. Finally, discussion on how the new system can be implemented is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this article, the author tests the hypothesis about the relationship between the level of short interest in equities and changes in the prices of these equities. Standard regression techniques on aggregate and firm data demonstrate that the short interest level is probably not a significant predictor of stock prices, even though regression techniques are difficult to apply here. A relationship between equity prices and short interest has implications for the profitability of short trading activities. A method for measuring the performance of investors by making conventional present value calculations is used to compare those with values simulated by a chance model. The results lend support to the view that there is no relationship between short trading and equity prices, for short traders do neither better nor worse using a random selection process.

The article focuses on the random walk theory of stock price behavior which posits that past stock-price movements cannot be used to predict future market prices that would allow traders to profit from the predictions. If stock price movements were to become predictable enough that a profit were possible, proponents of the random walk theory argue that enough market participants would quickly recognize and exploit the pattern. These market participants compete enough to make all non-random fluctuations so small that they cannot be exploited for a profit. As a result, the trader would be as well off with a buy and hold strategy as he would with a mechanical decision rule based upon past price changes.