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The article comments on studies by Robert E. Hall and Charles C. Holt that examined the effectiveness of manpower policies in improving the inflation-unemployment tradeoff in the economy in the U.S. My own position lies between these two extremes. I think that Holt and his colleagues are too optimistic, both in their assessment of the magnitude of the effect of their program in reducing unemployment and in their implication that a program of the size and kind they envision is politically feasible. I find completely unacceptable Hall's argument that, if a public employment service could succeed in doing a significantly better job than it is now doing, private placement services would have been more active since the gains accrue to the workers or the employers and therefore could be paid for. In a footnote. Hall admits that there may be some externalities involved in a public employment service. But so far as I can see, he ignores barriers to an effectively functioning labor market that a large and efficient Employment Service could hope to overcome, such as the lack of information among the unemployed and their inability or unwillingness to pay for the services of private agencies. I agree with Hall that there is little chance of eliminating the dispersion of unemployment rates among the various sectors of the national labor market. However, I think he pays too much attention to the occupational dimension, as do Holt and his colleagues. I believe other dimensions of the labor force, particularly age and sex, are more significant in this connection.

This section presents several comments about a paper by Edward Gramlich published in this same issue of Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, which develops systematic and comprehensive estimates of who bears the burden of an increase in national unemployment in the U.S. as of June 1974. According to the first commenter, the paper by Gramlich represents a useful attempt to study in some depth the differential effect on family income of cyclical changes in the level of unemployment. The findings are interesting and important. In general they confirm what other, less intensive, studies have led us to expect. But the cross-section data used permit detailed analysis that is not possible in more aggregative time-series studies. The author has been ingenious in developing his relationships one step at a time and in using the variables in his regression equations. The first commenter found quite useful the analysis of transfer payments in the final part of the paper. And he particularly appreciated Gramlich's careful treatment of unemployment insurance, which provides an antidote to some of the more sweeping claims regarding the disincentive effects of this form of transfer income. Meanwhile, the second commenter says that Gramlich has written a good straightforward paper.

The article presents discussions by economists on papers by economists James N. Morgan and James D. Smith that was published in the May 1, 1970 issue of the journal "American Economic Review." The author states that the two papers presented by Morgan and Smith reflect changing times. According to the author, income distribution and especially the distribution at the low end are back in the spotlight as an issue of social policy and appropriately it is eliciting scientific attention. Early in the 1960's, concern with sharing the national economic pie was eclipsed by the urgent concern about the lagging growth of the pie. Economists were wise to focus on the aggregative issues in the early 1960's and it is wise to shift focus onto distributive issues as one enters the 1970's. Now that the U.S. has reaped important benefits of economic growth and high employment, other problems deserve emphasis. Both of the present papers make a contribution to that knowledge. They reflect different methodological approaches and stress different issues. They do share one substantive characteristic, pointing to the importance of labor force participation by the wife as a key determinant of family income and income changes.

This article focuses on employment of demographic groups in the U.S. Recent increase in the national unemployment rate and forecasts of higher rates throughout 1975 have brought unemployment back into competition with inflation as the major economic problem. Since the three-and-one-half-year low set in October 1973, aggregate unemployment has increased by almost 1.9 million people, raising the overall unemployment rate to 6.5 percent in November 1974. The reported rate among teenagers has risen from the October 1973 low of 14 percent to more than 17 percent; the rate among blacks is almost 12 percent; and the rate for black teenagers is over 37 percent. Further increases in unemployment over the next year are widely forecast and there is a natural concern that the already depressed groups will be hit the hardest. In the policy debates over the appropriate fiscal and monetary restraint and on programs to assist the casualties of recession, it is important to identify the people who will be most harmed. Programs to ameliorate or offset the impacts of recession are often targeted at particular groups in the labor market. In this paper we use a job search-turnover model of the labor market to estimate the impact of a recession in 1975 on sixteen demographic groups, delineated by age, race, and sex. Through simulation, the model provides conditional forecasts of the incidence of employment losses by demographic groups. Since numbers of the groups with the highest unemployment rates -- youth, blacks, and women -- often react to a loss of job opportunities by withdrawing from the labor market, it is essential to estimate the reduced labor force participation of each group, as well as its increase in unemployment.

This article analyzes the nature of unemployment that remains when labor markets are tight and the economy seems to be at full employment in the U.S. as of 1970. The body of the paper begins with a discussion of the problem of defining and measuring unemployment. Definition derives from theory. In this case the theory underlying most macroeconomic thinking about unemployment is that of Keynes. Keynes believed that a certain level of frictional unemployment was characteristic of all labor markets, but that, in addition, involuntary unemployment could arise when a condition of disequilibrium existed in labor markets, with supply exceeding demand. For the purposes of the paper, his definition can be put in the following simple way: A person is unemployed if he offers his labor at its market price but is unable to find a buyer. A conventional view among economists about the persistence of unemployment when the economy is at full employment can be put in the following way: There are many different labor markets, distinguished by geographical location and the skills and other characteristics of the participants. Workers cannot move easily from one market to another since it is expensive to move their households or to acquire a new set of skills. At any point in time, some of the markets will be in equilibrium, some will have shortages of workers and some will have excess workers and hence unemployment.

The article presents comments of different persons on price control and rationing papers written by various economists. According to Paul M. O'Leary, until now price controls, production, and materials controls, wage controls, and rationing have been, in the main, consistent one with another. The War Production Board's control of the demand for industrial materials and the U.S. Office of Price Administration's rationing control of the demand for certain consumer's goods have contributed tremendously to the relative success of price control. According to Elmer B. Staats, he believes that there is agreement that their anti-inflationary controls are highly interdependent and that price and rationing during the period cannot succeed unless the controls are adequately co-ordinated. Secondly, each of the papers emphasizes the practical difficulties which will face the government agencies during the transition period in maintaining necessary controls in the face of the desire to relax government restrictions, inability to retain personnel, and what may appear to be a conflict with a program for full employment by industry.

The article presents information on essay contributions to Pabst Post-war Employment contest, which offered $50,000 in prizes for the best and the most practical solutions to the broad problems of post-war employment in the U.S. Serious contributions by professional students of the subject were solicited. Seventeen winning essays have been published by the Pabst Co. The collection is well worth for the insight provides into the applied economic thinking of a group of able and at least potentially influential economists. There is a striking agreement in fundamental outlook characterizing a large majority of papers. This agreement takes the form of an implicit or explicit interpretation of the problem as primarily the problem of finding adequate offsets to savings at the level of employment desired. The majority of these papers begin with a fundamentally correct understanding of what the employment problem is, and advocate measure that would at least work in the right direction. A large majority of the proposals are extremely sensible, and there are few measures advocated in any of the papers that would not confer real benefits on the U.S. economy.

A study by Donald Pursell (1972), which examines migration data compiled from the one-percent sample file of the Social Security Ad- ministration, is discussed in this paper. An important feature of the data which is neglected by Pursell is pointed out, and the Pursell results are compared with findings obtained using somewhat different treatments of the social security data. The Pursell conclusion that out-migration is negatively related to employment growth is supported by the alternative tests. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents the comments of several economists concerning the analysis of Arthur Okun and Nancy Teeters on the problems associated with the full employment surplus in the U.S. Warren Smith stresses that he has been skeptical about the usefulness of the full employment surplus. He states that the function of the surplus calculation is to provide a summary number that will offer a prime estimate of the impact of the budget on the economy. He claims that this concept is not applied in Okun and Teeters report. Meanwhile, R. A. Gordon denotes that he has a few difficulties and many agreements with the paper. On the part of weighting system, he agrees on the concept to adjust expenditures, transfer payments and taxes. Moreover, discussion of Okun regarding the comments is also given.

On March 24, 1959, the U.S., Senate and House directed the Joint Economic Committee to conduct a large-scale investigation into the problems of maximum employment, an adequate rate of economic growth and the maintenance of price stability. On January 10, 1960, less than a year later, the Committee and the staff assembled for the purpose concluded its task, having published a Committee Report. It will be some time before the profession has managed to digest the enormous volume of material. This article is particularly concerned with the two central documents, the Committee and Staff Reports. There is a vast amount of useful analysis in the Staff Report and , the hearings and the study papers. The center topics are difficult and complicated in the extreme. There are marks of haste and insufficient integration throughout the Staff Report, insufficient time is the obvious source of many of its shortcomings. Bluntly put, it was ridiculous to expect that a staff could be assembled, hearings held, study projects assigned, and the whole enormous resultant mass digested, in less than a year. Viewed against the background of this limiting factor, the Staff Report emerges as a remarkably good performance.

This article is written on the assumption that, after the reconversion period, U.S. major economic problem will be the attainment of a level of aggregate demand reasonably commensurate with her technical capacity to produce. If, after reconversion, there is no hiatus between aggregate demand and potential supply, or if demand, at the prevailing price structure, actually tends to be in excess of supply, the remarks which follow will be of little relevance to future problems. It will not be the author's purpose in this article to estimate American capacity to produce at optimum employment or to guess how much less than such capacity aggregate demand is likely to be. In recent months, this problem has been tackled by several competent investigators. In principle, any deficiency of monetary demand can be eliminated by a sufficient expansion of government expenditures. In the present paper, the author will consider the possibility of removing such a deficiency through an extensive program of foreign investment.

The purpose of this paper is to report some tentative conclusions concerning the growth of the service industries and to indicate some implications of this growth for the economy and for economic analysis. Between 1929 and 1963 employment in the service sector grew 1.7 per cent per annum faster than in the goods sector. At some point during the past decade the United States became the first "service economy" in the history of the world, that is, the first economy in which more than half of the employed population is not involved in the production of tangible goods. The more rapid growth of services was observed for individual industries as well as the sector aggregates and for occupations as well as industries. This shift represents an acceleration of a trend that has persisted for at least the past century. Numerous conceptual and statistical problems in the measurement of real output make it difficult to explain precisely why service industry employment has grown so rapidly. The data examined in this paper appear to reject the hypothesis that the growth of real income per capita was a major explanation. The demand for services, compared with goods, may have been slightly more elastic with respect to income (principally because of the low elasticity for agriculture), but this was not an important reason for the shift of employment. Sector differences in the rate of growth of real output were probably very small; differences in the rate of growth of real output per man were probably very large. The differential in the rate of growth of real output per man reflects a moderate differential change in productivity, in the sense of efficiency in the use of resources, but this is not the only or major explanation. It also reflects a more rapid decline in hours per man in services, a more rapid rise in the quality of labor in goods industries, and a more rapid rise in capital per worker in the goods sector. The shift of employment to services has many important implications. The trends discussed here may be offset by other changes that are also taking place in the economy, but they serve to indicate the likely effects of the relative growth of services, other things remaining the same. These trends include: 1. Growing employment opportunities for women and older workers. 2. Growing opportunities for part-time employment and urban sell-employment 3. Growing need for workers with more formal education. 4. Possible decreasing importance of unions and growing importance of professional organizations. 5. Possible trend toward greater personalization of work. 6. Growing importance of small firms. 7. Growing importance of nonprofit organizations (public and private). 8. Declining relative importance of physical capital. 9. Growing stability in employment and, to a lesser extent, in output. 10, Possible increase in cyclical variability in output per man-hour. In addition to having important implications for the economy, the growing relative importance of the services appears to have implications for economic analysis as well. One problem arises because the consumer frequently plays an important role in the production of services. This unmeasured input can have significant effects on productivity in retailing, health, education, and many other service industries. A second concept that may require further development is that of labor-embodied technological change. When, as in some services, formal education is important and there is job security, the rate at which advances in knowledge affect productivity will depend in part on how fast labor embodying these new advances can be added to the work force. Another point concerns productivity and demand. The flow of production in many service industries is uneven, with sharp peaks at particular hours or on particular days, separated by periods of slow activity. Also, the size of the production run (the individual transaction) is often very small. For these reasons, the analysis of the relation between output and productivity in services will probably have to pay more attention to changes in the timing of demand and to changes in transaction size. The final implication discussed is the likelihood that real gross national product is becoming increasingly less useful for studies of productivity and economic growth, because at high levels of GNP per capita a large fraction of productive effort is devoted to services (where real output is often very difficult to measure) and to other activities, such as "do-it- yourself," that are not measured at all. In the future, we shall probably find it necessary to develop auxiliary measures of "output" and economic welfare to be used in conjunction with the gross. national product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a list that specifies doctoral degrees conferred during the academic year terminating June 1964, and theses undertaken in the same period. For General Economics; Methodology, degrees conferred to James F. Hofheinz for his paper on The evolution of economic philosophy. For Price and Allocation Theory; Income and Employment Theory; History of Economic Thought, degrees was conferred to Cleverland W. Bateman for his paper on Investment behavior and the acceleration principle. For Economic History; Economic Development; National Economies, degrees was conferred to researcher Ralph Anspach on his paper The problem of a plural economy and its effects on Indonesia's economic structure: a study in economic policy. For Statistical Methods; Econometrics; Social Accounting, the degree was conferred to researcher Takeshi Amemiya on his paper Specification analysis in econometrics. For Economic System; Planning and Reform: Cooperation, the degree was con fared to Michael Boreteky for his paper on The Soviet challenge to U. S. machine building: a study in production and technological policy.

This paper has two principal aims: (1) to analyze and measure how the demographic variables-mortality, fertility, and immigration- affect the cost of education; (2) to evaluate what possibilities developing countries, such as those of Latin America, have for a rapid educational improvement. The paper relates demographic and educational variables of three different populations: Sweden, 1840-1965; the United States, 1850-1960; and Latin America, 1930-2000. Three educational variables are also cone sidered: (a) school attendance rates by sex and age; (b) distribution of students of same age by grade; and (c) cost of student by grade. Demographic changes in countries such as Sweden and the United States were favorable for the development of education. For the future, unless an increase of fertility occurs, mortality and fertility changes will not have a significant effect on the cost of education in these countries. In current less developed countries the demographic changes during the past were less favorable to educational development. A future reduction of fertility will significantly help them to achieve a higher educational level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we examine the effects of the policies of wage and price restraint that have at various times been employed in Britain since 1945. We have taken the two-equation model that has been studied extensively in the context of data for both the United Kingdom and the United States,[2] and have assumed that, although far from perfect, this model will be a good enough statistical description of wage and price inflation to allow it to catch any major influence of wage and price restraints. In order to see how the potential effects of incomes policies should be specified in this two-equation model, we are forced to examine the derivation of the equations in some detail. In this process we discover that shift dummies which have been used by other investigators[3] to catch the effects of incomes policies are inappropriate and that their use can give rise to misleading results. After conducting tests more satisfactory than those employing shift dummies, we conclude that the data are not inconsistent with the view that wage and price restraints have usually been ineffective in restraining inflation, and also that the restraints have sometimes actually had the effect of raising the rate of inflation above what it would otherwise have been. This perverse effect is very noticeable in the most recent periods of "restraint" since 1966. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Statistical data which may be useful to students of economic change are presented in this paper. It interprets long-run statistical series on the growth of educational employment in the United States, Great Britain, and Germany, and provides information on the changes in the relative importance of employment in public schools to total governmental employment and to total employment over the long run. Finally, an analysis of the statistical record indicates that some potentially interesting interrelationships exist between the different proportions of school-age population attending public school, teacher-student ratios, and different ratios of school-age populations to total employment in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On September 24, 1949, Frank D. Graham, Walker Professor of International Finance at Princeton University, at Princeton, New Jersey, died from a fall at Palmer Stadium at the close of the Princeton-Lafayette football game. During the last two decades of his life, Graham was concerned with some of the most difficult problems of recent times--unemployment, monetary stability, and international peace and prosperity. To these formidable tasks he brought an acute intellect, a deep love of truth, great courage in his convictions, and a warm concern for human welfare. Born of American parents in Halifax, Nova Scotia, on January 1, 1890, Graham received an A.B. in 1913 and an as in 1915 from Dalhousie University, and then an A.M. in 1917 and a Ph.D. in 1920 from Harvard University. Graham wrote his doctor's thesis on "International Trade Under Depreciated Paper: United States, 1862-79." Even in this early study, he was too independent and an original thinker. Graham's great critical and analytical powers developed early. Coming to Princeton University as an assistant professor in 1921, he was by the late twenties one of the outstanding graduate teachers on the Princeton campus.

This paper presents a response by John M. Peterson to comments on his article regarding employment effects of minimum wages in the U.S. The author points out that no attempt was made to explain the results among females with high and low minimums. He argues that Richard A. Lester cannot use the recession to account for the less favorable employment changes for women than men. The author stresses that his article remains unaffected by Lester's observations.

This paper reflects on an article by John M. Peterson regarding the employment effects of minimum-wage legislation in the U.S. It criticizes the orthodox model of the labor market and the firm. It outlines the reasons behind a range of diverse reaction or latitude for nonemployment adjustment. It argues that Peterson has overlooked a number of factors and made misleading statements concerning a study of the consequences of the weekly minimums in Oregon retail stores in 1913-1914.

Discusses voting behavior and aggregate policy targets in the U.S. Relationship of an aggregate vote unemployment-price change function to individual behavior; Information on the derivation of a vote-unemployment-price-change function; Factors that affect voting behavior.

This paper summarizes the results of a field investigation in 1937-38 of employer efforts to stabilize employment under the incentive provided by the Wisconsin employer-reserve unemployment compensation law. Merit rating began there in 1938—three or four years before the effective date in most states. Nearly two-thirds of the 247 employers interviewed have been encouraged by the prospect of a reduced contribution rate to do something toward stabilizing employment, although only a minority have met with relative success. On the other hand, the drive to "keep down benefits" has led to the use of devices (such as extreme work spreading) which merely avoid benefit payments and do not stabilize employment. Factors affecting the ability to stabilize vary between industries and between firms in the same industrial classification, and this is often as important as the determination to stabilize in explaining an employer's benefit experience. Nevertheless, the fact that Wisconsin employers as a whole appear to favor their present type of law may explain the widespread initial efforts to provide steadier work. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This section presents comments and discussion on studies about the interrelation between employment and inflation in the U.S. Several participants discussed the question of whether a higher average inflation rate would be associated with a more variable inflation rate. Arthur M. Okun was not dissuaded by Robert J. Gordon's argument that the correlation between mean and variance for the inflation experience of various countries was cut in half if only the years since 1960 were considered. He argued that this was a period of unusually low world-wide inflation, yet the correlation remained a distinct even if not statistically significant by standard tests. Thomas Juster agreed that more inflation would also mean a more variable rate of inflation and argued that this had important social welfare implications. The poorest, least educated members of society would inevitably be the most hurt by the variability since they are the least able to adjust to it. The gains and losses imposed by variable inflation rates would thus be distributed in a highly inequitable way. William Fellner reasoned that the high variability was associated with stop-go stabilization policies. For the U.S., this would mean that a tolerance of more inflation would produce a more variable unemployment rate. Gordon, however, reiterated his intention to tolerate more inflation precisely for the purpose of stabilizing the unemployment rate.

This article argues that the institutions of the U.S. economy do adapt to inflation, once it becomes fairly steady, and thus automatically offer protection against the costs associated with accelerating inflation. Full employment and price stability do not deserve equal primacy as stabilization goals. Most of the evils commonly associated with inflation occur only when the actual inflation rate deviates from that which is expected, that is, when the inflation is a surprise. The welfare costs of a fully anticipated inflation, although a popular subject in economics journals and graduate theory exams, are not widely discussed or understood elsewhere. The article first discusses the cost of maintaining a steady inflation at a rate similar to the 5 percent annual average that has obtained in the U.S. since the beginning of 1968. This analysis does not depend on the existence of a long-run tradeoff between the expected rate of inflation and the unemployment rate. The accelerationist position that no long-run tradeoff exists is relevant for the choice of the optimal unemployment rate, not the inflation rate: In the absence of a long-run tradeoff, steady inflation can be maintained only at a single natural rate of unemployment, whereas a negatively sloped long-run tradeoff allows the choice among many alternative unemployment rates.

This paper tests the hypothesis that attitudes toward work -- namely professional and intellectual values -- can be considered to measure compensation for monetary losses. Data on earnings, the Rosenberg attitudes toward work scale, and other conditions of employment for U. S. professional and technical workers in thirteen fields of specialization are used. Comparisons are made in terms of the expectation that, as a function of value patterns, academically employed professional and technical workers forego monetary returns relative to their non- academic, private Industry, government and self-employed counterparts. Expectation and hypothesis are confirmed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article offers a look at the employment condition in different industries in the U.S. in November 1923. According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, generally, an increase in employment volume was reported in November, as well as an increase in wages. Women's clothing, millinery, brick and men's clothing industries reported a decline in employment rate. While steel shipbuilding, slaughtering and meat packing, agricultural equipment and automobile tires industries recorded employment increase. Several charts comparing the employment volume in different industries are presented.

As econometric models have grown in size and complexity in an attempt to mirror the structure of the American economy, a determination of the size distribution of personal income has never been included. The Brookings model, for instance, limits its consideration of the income distribution to a determination of factor shares. Issues relating directly to how families or income units are distributed by size of income were never raised. This paper examines the hypothesis that short run changes in the U.S. size distribution of personal income have been systematically related to aggregate levels of output, personal income, and employment during the post-war period. Elsewhere the relationships presented in this paper are incorporated into an econometric model of the U.S. Part I proposes a procedure for describing the size distribution of income, while Part II examines postwar movements in measures of the size distribution. Separate patterns are established for each of three family groups, families with a male head and a wife in the labor force, those with a male head and a wife not in the labor force, and those with a female head. In Part III, these pat- terns are related to changes in aggregate personal income components and in aggregate levels of employment and labor force participation. Some tentative conclusions are drawn in Part IV.

In his celebrated study of "The structure of U.S. foreign trade," Wassily Leontief came to the surprising conclusion that the U.S. specializes in labor-intensive lines of production. It would thus seem that this country resorts to foreign trade in order to economize its capital and dispose of its surplus labor. Since the U.S. is known to have a far higher capital/labor ratio than its trading partners, this finding contradicts the basic Ohlin model which explains international trade in terms of relative factor endowments. Under it a country would export those products which are intensive in its relatively abundant resource and import those which are intensive in its relatively scarce resource. A wealth of statistical and theoretical material has been published in the past decade in an attempt to reconcile the empirical finding with the Heckscher-Ohlin theorem. This paper is devoted to an empirical examination of Leontief's hypothesis concerning the superiority of U.S. labor. The problem does not easily lend itself to statistical measurement because of the difficulty of isolating the quality of labor from other factors affecting productivity.

The article presents a discussion related to technical progress, capital formation and economic growth in the U.S., a paper written by Edward Denison. Denison has tackled the question in more specific terms by stating his opinion that without any change in policies, except those needed to maintain fairly full employment, the growth rate would be quite high for the economy of the U.S. Denison's computations are therefore not merely an academic exercise in applied growth theory but they are actually used in evaluating the feasibility of that objective and considering policies needed to achieve the objective. Denison himself believes that such an increase in the rate of growth could be achieved if the nation considers that it is an important objective. Denison has made an arithmetic allowance for the effect of starting from a below full employment level. This effect is obviously small spread over a twenty-year period. Some of the changes which Denison believes require far-reaching policy measures would result from continuing a full employment expansion in aggregate demand.

The article discusses the trend of public employment in Great Britain and the U.S. During the last half-century, governments almost everywhere have become far stronger influences in economic life. The paper attempts to provide a quantitative picture of certain aspects of this powerful drift. It is primarily concerned with Great Britain, but it includes some comparisons with the U.S. The measure of size, which has been studied, is the number of persons employed by governments in Great Britain considered in relation to the size of the British labor force. These data are traced for a sixty-year period. They are analyzed so as to distinguish employment at central and local levels and in various functions and they are compared with similar measures for the U.S. In 1891, less than 4 per cent of the working population was employed by government at all levels, central and local, in both civilian and military capacities in Great Britain. A period of rapid expansion in the size of government was opening. Nevertheless, 1890 does not represent the beginning of the development from which the structure of the modern British state emerged. That development started well over a century before and in some of its aspects, of course, much earlier still.

As war prosperity brought an end to the worst depression in history, there was general agreement that preparations should be made to prevent a similar disaster in the future. Even the wartime government of Great Britain, despite its basically conservative character, accepted as one of their primary postwar aims and responsibilities the maintenance of a high and stable level of employment in the 1944 White Paper on Employment Policy. In the U.S., the same movement led to the passage of the Employment Act of 1946, with its obligation to promote maximum employment, production, and purchasing power. Although one of the things to be contained in the economic report provided for by the act is a review of economic conditions during the preceding year, there is nothing else in the act which specifies the period to which recommendations are to apply. But the author believes that most economists have from the start felt that the basic function of the council was to prevent serious depressions such as that which struck in 1929.

This article focuses on the economic development of a nation. Not only does economic development command more discussion in its own name than any other economic subject before the United Nations and other international organizations; it is impossible to debate or pass a resolution on other subjects, for example, full employment, without also again giving consideration to economic development. Despite all the excesses of oratory and polemics which have been uttered in the name of economic development, it would be a great mistake, lightly to dismiss the reality and the intensity of the "drive" for economic development. It is prestige and economic nationalism, political nationalism, and standards of living all mixed together. It is intimately linked with the stirrings toward greater political self-government or independence among the peoples of many of the underdeveloped areas of the world. In this period of ferment, the aspirations toward economic development take on significance for political and security reasons.

The object of this paper is to consider the international implications of national policies aimed at maintaining high and stable levels of employment. It is now widely realized that such policies are not only compatible with, but actually prerequisite to, a large and steady flow of world trade. Substantial progress has been made since the end of the war in setting up the framework for a new international system of monetary and trading relations. The two Bretton Woods institutions are ready to start operations, and a conference just concluded in London, England, has produced a draft charter for an international trade organization. This is a good time to inquire how this new system can be operated so as to agree rather than conflict with the domestic objective of stability at full employment. Foreign trade fluctuations may continually necessitate relative shifts in the structure of prices and production, but should not compel any country to depart from the general norm of domestic stability.

The aim of this paper is to examine the arguments for and the implications of the maintenance of the wartime pattern of yields on government securities. The pattern is roughly defined by three-eighth of 1 percent on 90-day Treasury bills, seven-eighth of 1 percent on one-year Treasury certificates of indebtedness, and two and a half percent on the longest term bonds. This is substantially the pattern which was adopted fortuitously early in the war to aid in financing the war by means of bank borrowing at low cost. The arguments adduced for this policy are inconsistent and are not convincing. The extension of this policy during peacetimes, particularly when full employment exists, implies the complete surrender by the Reserve System of quantitative control over the supply of money and eventually necessitates the curtailment of the present-day lending functions of commercial banks. Such a policy affords no satisfactory alternative quantitative basis of monetary control, which control is made to depend entirely upon the management of Treasury receipts and expenditures.

This is a study of the employment patterns of American wives in relation to the composition of their families. The data are taken from the 1960 United States Census, both from published tabulations and the 1/1000 sample. The population studied is non-Negro, non-farm, married, husband present women who are under the age of sixty. The methods of analysis used include the comparison of employment rates among sub-populations and a dummy variable regression technique. Aspects of family composition studied include age of the youngest child (in single years in order to determine whether there are discontinuities in the rates of employment when youngest children enter school, etc.), number of children in the family, and the presence of other relatives in the family. The paper concludes with a discussion of the meaning of family status differentials in employment including differential preferences for employment, differential fertility experience, and differential demands on the mother's time. Some discussion of the use of cross section data of this sort to infer life cycle patterns of employment is included. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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This paper examines the economic factors which partially explain the movements in this flow of labor from Europe to the U.S. in the period 1870-1914. Aggregate labor demand and supply functions are discussed and combined into a migration model. The paper offers both an examination of an important period in economic history and a further test of available aggregate demand and supply models for labor. The results suggest that aggregate demand and supply functions for labor derived from neoclassical production and consumer theory may be fruitfully applied to the analysis of the economic determinants of migration. European migration to the U.S. prior to World War I was significantly influenced by both employment opportunities in the particular European country, and the gain in real income to be achieved by migration to the U.S. Employment opportunities in the U.S., as distinct from the higher real wages, was of much less significance. Differences in the migrant stock between the European countries may also underlay variation in the level of migration to the United States.

The article presents abstracts of various papers related to migration in North America. One of the papers discussed is "Interstate Migration of Labor-Force Age Population," by David F. Bramhall and Herrington J. Bryce. The authors find that migration from a state is closely linked to the size of population by age groups rather than to economic conditions. Immigration rates into states, on the other hand, are importantly determined by employment opportunities. Other findings are that the propensity of non-whites of labor-force age to migrate is less than that of whites, and whites are generally more responsive to changes in employment opportunities among states than are non-whites. Another paper discussed is "An Analysis of the Determinants of Geographic Labor Mobility in the United States," by Michael J. Greenwood. The study aims to estimate the magnitudes of each of several factors influencing interstate migration over the period 1955-1960. Multiple regression analysis was used on several variables, which might reasonably be expected to explain the movements, which occurred. The most unique explanatory variable employed is the migrant stock, that is, the number of persons born in State i and living in State j. Failure to include the migrant stock variable in the estimated relationships causes the true direct effect of most other variables to be obscured.

U. S. data on employment have lacked crucial information on the demand for labor. The only available data have been those collected by the National Bureau of Economic Research on help-wanted advertising, and those from the Bureau of Employment Security on job applicants. Recently, however, the Department of Labor has launched a program to develop more information on job vacancies, based on two important feasibility studies. Yet there has still not been enough analytical work done to enable proper interpretation of the level or pattern of job vacancies. At the present time there are no grounds for assuming that job vacancies are equivalent to the excess demand for labor, although such data can be used to measure market maladjustment. The paper also raises several conceptual problems concerning job vacancies. Given this situation, the article concludes that, although price and wage stability is a complex function of total flow and duration of unemployment, as well as of the total flow and duration of vacancies, we do not know what patterns are consistent with stability. Haste to use vacancy data means the sacrifice of careful research on the significance of such data. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]