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The age-old question of the generalizability of the results of experiments that are conducted in artificial laboratory settings to more realistic inferential and decision-making situations is considered in this paper. Conservatism in probability revision provides an example of a result that (1) has received wide attention, including attention in terms of implications for real-world decision making, on the basis of experiments conducted in artificial settings and (2) is now apparently thought by many to he highly situational and not at all a ubiquitous phenomenon, in which case its implications for real-world decision making are not as extensive as originally claimed. In this paper conservatism is considered in some detail within the context of the generalizability question. In a more general vein, we discuss some of the difficulties inherent; in experimentation in realistic settings, suggest possible procedures for avoiding or at least alleviating such difficulties, and make a plea for more realistic experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In recent years a substantial body of research findings (based almost solely on responses to the Dilemmas-of-Choice instrument as the measure of risk), commonly referred to as the "risky shift" phenomenon, has suggested that groups take greater risks than individuals. This interpretation, if generalizable. would replace the commonly held belief that groups make decisions that are more conservative than. or the average of, individual decisions. This paper examines, empirically and analytically, some major limitations of the generalizability of the risky shift phenomenon. The major concerns of this paper are analysis of (1) the conventional method of statistically analyzing the data generated in risky shift studies, and (2) the measure of risk almost universally used by investigators of the risky shift phenomenon. In order to accomplish this task several experiments were designed. The conventional statistic used in the risky shift literature is analyzed and inferences appropriate to it are explored. The conventional test supports the risky shift findings. A revised measurement scale and alternative statistical testing procedures are discussed. The revised scale permits a continuum of response rather than the discrete choices permitted with the Dilemmas-of-Choice instrument. Results using the alternative methods of statistical analysis and the revised scale are presented. These results do not support the previous findings that groups accept a level of risk significantly greater than that acceptable to the average group member deciding alone. These findings strongly suggest that generalization of the risky shift phenomenon may be limited to individuals and groups using the Dilemmas-of-Choice instrument as the measure of risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews work completed on a value-judgment-based tactical air command system intended to dispatch missions from a limited supply in response to requests for immediate close air support. A Judged Utility Decision Generator (JUDGE) assumes that value judgments can be made explicitly and in real time by appropriately trained personnel, and that decision systems should maximize expected utility. Its inputs include demand forecasts, numbers of aircraft available, and turnaround time distributions. As each request is received, JUDGE makes a dispatching decision based on the judged utility of destroying the target named in the request, kill probability data, number of sorties remaining before resupply of aircraft, and the time. In a war-game situation using experienced military subjects, JUDGE was considerably superior to a simulated current system in amount of expected utility gained. Concluding sections of the paper identify characteristics of judgment-based command systems, and discuss logical im- plications of such characteristics for system evaluation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expectancy-valence models of work motivation are frequently tested with survey methodology. This paper deals with the reliability and construct validity of various questionnaire measures of expectancy-valence components. Measures of (a) valence, (b) instrumentality, and (c) expectancy were given to a sample of 171 Air Force trainees on two occasions. The results indicated that reliabilities of the three 'components of the model were fairly low and that different measures of the same component were not highly correlated. it. was concluded that using questionnaire measures to test expectancy-valence models is inappropriate until better measures are developed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expectancy theory has found increasing use iii the study of such variables as worker effort, performance, and satisfaction. This paper suggests some mathematical modifications of expectancy theory which extend its use to the prediction of leader behavior. Data from a field study of naval aviation maintenance crews and a field study of public works maintenance shop supervisors found that a leader's actual behavior could be predicted from the theory. These results suggest that expectancy theory not only has the ability to account for leader behavior in a real life setting, but also helps us to understand the antecedents of such behavior. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper provides information concerning the flexibility of leader behavior. Subjects were 48 black and 48 white undergraduate students. Twelve black and 12 white older students were selected as leaders while the remaining subjects were assigned randomly as members of 12 black, 12 white, and 12 mixed dyads. Results indicate that leader behavior as measured by Bales Interaction Process Analysis changed as the group performed different tasks. There were no behavior differences as a function of leader's race although an interaction was found in the directive categories between task and dyad composition. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Two characteristics of MCPL research efforts relating to the manipulation of cue redundancy are noted. First, the fairly prevalent problem of experimental confounding of cue redundancy with other task parameters, and second, the lack of an analytical development of the mathematical relationships among cue validities, task predictability, and regression weights as cue redundancy is varied systematically. This paper provides such an analysis, and shows that some of the confounding experienced by earlier researchers may be obviated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents information on the articles published in the December 1973 issue of the journal "Organizational Behavior and Human Performance." The articles reflect growing awareness that many important probabilistic inference tasks are hierarchical in the sense that they involve complex conditioning patterns among events. Each event forms a link in an often lengthy inferential chain leading from observables to primary hypotheses whose relative likeliness is to be determined. Three articles in this journal are concerned with various formal issues in hierarchical or cascaded inference. A general model by Scott Barclay and Clinton W. Kelly for hierarchical inference shows rather clearly just how complex the essential conditioning patterns among inferential events can be. The Schum-Kelly article examines a special case of hierarchical inference in which the reliability or credibility of sources of inferential information is an issue. This paper illustrates the absolute necessity for careful prescriptions about the independence and conditional independence of events.

The occurrence or nonoccurrence of an event D has inferential significance. We query n sources or sensors who make individual reports about the occurrence or nonoccurrence of D. Their reports are either mutually confirming or there is some pattern of conflict among them. In this paper we develop expressions termed adjusted likelihood ratios which prescribe the inferential or diagnostic impact of the joint confirming or conflicting reports from the n sources. These expressions combine information about the inferential impact of D (and its complement D) with information about the reliability of each source. We only consider the case in which the reporting behavior of any subset of the sources is not itself an inferentially significant event. Appropriate independence and conditional independence assumptions are necessary. Our formulations of adjusted likelihood ratio are applicable to a variety of medical, legal, military, and other inferential tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An inductive inference problem will often be structured so that the target variable (hypotheses) are logically distant from the observable events (data). In this situation it may be difficult or impossible to assess the probabilistic connection between them, but it may be possible to decompose the problem through the use of intermediate or explanatory variables. That is, it will often be possible to assess the likelihood of the observed data given some intermediate variable, and the likelihood of that intermediate variable given another, and so on, until the hypotheses of interest are reached. Inferences which incorporate one or more intermediate variables are called hierarchical, cascaded, or multistage inferences. The present paper presents a normative model for the solution of the general hierarchical inference problem. The formulation begins with a formal description of the hierarchical inference tree, including a discussion of various simplifying conditional independence assumptions. The solution is first derived for three special case models of differing structure, and then the algorithm for the general solution is given for two cases: one in which the conditional independence assumptions have been made and one in which they have not. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Much research effort has recently been expended in assessing a construct known as organizational climate. Many researchers have opted to measure the construct via perceptual self-report questionnaires. The present paper, through literature review and logical argument, questions the independence of climate factors from those identified in research on work attitudes. Two work attitude measures and 90 organizational climate items were administered to 499 employees of one company. Cluster analysis of the cluster scores generated for each measure revealed substantial redundancy of climate factors with regard to work attitude factors, Assessing climate via perceptual self-report measures may result in the replication of the work attitude literature. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Expectancy theories of work motivation specify a multiplicative relationship between valence of job outcomes (V) and expectancy (E) that effort will lead to these outcomes. But both E and V are typically measured using scales lacking a rational zero point and thus at best interval in nature. Multiplication of such scales is theoretically not a meaningful operation. This paper demonstrates that transformations of E and V scales which change only the location of the nonmeaningful zero point can greatly alter obtained correlations between E × V and measures work motivation or effort. Two potential solutions to this problem are presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the application of decomposition rules to Bayesian man-machine diagnostic inference systems. An experiment is reported which investigates the use of such decomposition rules in dealing with conditionally dependent data. The experiment, unlike its predecessors, employs an intuitive inference task where the veridical odds can be closely estimated. One major conclusion of this research is that logically equivalent decomposition rules are not necessarily of equal difficulty. Consequently, recommendations as to the superority of a particular decomposition rule should not be made; the systems designer's choice of a particular decision rule should be based on the types of data and conditional dependencies encountered in his particular situation. Such considerations may lead to the adoption of hybrid decomposition rules of a type not previously used. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In many cases Bayes' theorem is an appropriate algorithm for the aggregation of probabilistic evidence. As with other statistical procedures, there are restrictions that must be taken into account. In the present paper we shall comment on several approaches that have been devoted to one of these restrictions; the incorporation of uncertainty about the true state of a datum. A datum is a variable which can be partitioned into equivalence classes. These classes represent the possible data states which will be also called events. In Bayes' theorem an event is an item of information which will be used for revising the opinion about the relative likelihood of hypotheses. In any specific situation only one of the possible events will be the true event. An event may come from a source whose reporting or observational accuracy is not perfect. An example may illustrate the issue. A medical doctor wants to come to a diagnosis. To achieve this he considers several data. One datum might be the result of a medical test, which has three possible states: positive, negative, inconclusive. If the doctor reports the state of the datum to be positive, he may be wrong by whatever reasons. That is, the report of an event must not necessarily coincide with the actual or true event of the datum under consideration. This kind of uncertainty about the true event in any specific situation is a characteristic of the source. In most cases it will reduce the diagnostic impact of an event. Whenever the report of an event and the true event coincide imperfectly, measures of source inaccuracy must be incorporated into Bayes' theorem. The task can be considered as two stage probabilistic induction. The first step is induction from the reported to the actual event, the second is induction from the actual event to the creditation of hypotheses. This is the reason why Gettys and Willke (1969) speak about "cascaded inference." [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper measured subordinates' perceptions of their leaders' ability to use different leadership styles. Subjects were 124 middle and first level supervisors from accounting and R & D departments in the United Kingdom. The results indicate that subjects did not believe that their supervisors would either use the same style (irrespective of what style) or randomly employ styles to deal with four typical but hypothetical problems. These results persisted when respondents were subdivided on the basis of both organizational level and functional area. Some evidence suggests that perceived patterns of style usage may be associated, at least in the mind of subordinates, with the general task dimension, interpersonal-technical. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper develops the hypothesis that hierarchical structure and external control in organizations are antecedent variables leading to low achievement, low creativity, and high aggression. An intervening variables of belief systems is postulated and a consistency motivational hypothesis is suggested. Data supportive of the hypothesis is reviewed and implications are suggested. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper describes a normative-descriptive strategy for cognitive research. In a set of illustrative experiments based on models from physics, subjects were asked to judge the positions and weights necessary to maintain equilibrium in mechanical displays of varying complexity. Whenever possible subjects' judgments were accounted for through the appropriate normative models; otherwise descriptive models were generated from the normative models and from the results of the other experiments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes how the items in G. G. Stern's Organizational Climate Index were reconceptualized according to the concepts appropriate to the business organization—the instrument has been. called the Business Organization Climate Index, or BOCI. The resulting 24 scales were submitted to item analysis and tested for split-half reliability on a sample of 120 junior managers from more than 100 different companies. Factor analysis of the scales revealed two main factors. Organizational Progressiveness and formative Control. The reconceptualization is compared with Stern's conceptualization of the items. The construct validity of BOCI is tested by comparing the "Climate" in three organizations contrasted in terms of their organization structure. The conclusion presents 12 possible types of data that can be collected about persons and their environments and indicates how the BOCI and Stern's measures fit into such a scheme. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper first presents a framework of psychological and sociological research on careers. It then describes a model for describing a phenomenon largely unexplored in the psychological career literature—identity changes during the course of a person's occupational career experiences. In this model the individual's total identity is viewed as a number of subidentities, with each subidentity representing the person's image of himself in a particular social role (Miller, 1963). The model examines the development of the career subidentity, the person's conception of himself in his career role. Growth in the career subidentity and career commitment is seen as a series of cycles of challenging goal setting, independent effort, success, subidentity growth, and increased career self-esteem and commitment, leading, in turn, to further goal setting. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper Presents a theoretical rationale for understanding the relationship between job satisfaction and job performance. It is argued that job satisfaction and dissatisfaction are properly conceived of as outcomes of action. The effect of performance on satisfaction is viewed as a function of the degree to which performance entails or leads to the attainment of the individual's important job values. It is acknowledged that emotions such as satisfaction and dissatisfaction are important incentive to action in that they entail action tendencies (i.e. approach and avoidance). Emotions, however, are not seen as determining action. It is argued that performance is the direct. result of the individual's specific task or work goals and that these goals are, in turn, determined by the individual's values, knowledge, and beliefs in the context of the situation as he understands it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The widely held belief that participation in decision making will result in power equalization between "haves" and "have-nots" is criticized. It is hypothesized, on the contrary, that when great differences exist in the expert power of group members. the participation process will provide the more powerful persons with greater opportunities for using their expert power, with the result that their effective influence on the less powerful will increase. An experiment was designed in which two variations of Other's expert power and two variations of Subject's extent of participation with Other (Other being a paper stooge) were manipulated. Measures included pre- and post-measures of Subject's preference for a certain solution of a complex problem. As a result, the Experimenter could determine whether or not Subject had changed from his initial point of view to one in line with the opposite opinion advanced by Other and was able to find out Subject's reactions to Other and to the influence process. Two hypotheses were put to test: Hypothesis One: a higher degree of expert power (availability of relevant information) of Other will result in more effective influence by Other on Subject than lower expert power. Hypothesis Two: the more expert power possessed by Other, and the greater the extent of Subject's participation with Other in the decision-making processes, the greater Other's effective influence on Subject. Both hypotheses were strongly supported by the experimental findings. The relevance of the tested theory and of other empirical data for "democratization processes" is discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents the results of an experiment designed in investigate the relationship between intuitive Bayesian point est inial and theoretically optimal Bayesian point estimates for various probability distributions (normal distributions) and loss functions (linear and quadratic loss functions). The results indicate that this relationship depends somewhat on the parameters of the distribution and loss function. Overall. however, the subjects performed the task of intuitive estimation and prevention very well. On the average, the intuitive estimates were quite close to the optimal estimates despite the complexity of the decision-making problem. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper attempts to extend the understanding of leadership behavior by examining the impact of a leader's behavior (in terms of initiation of structure and consideration) on the subordinates' path-goal instrumentalities. Data relevant to the theoretical scheme are presented for two organizations. In both, support is gained for the theory: although in one organization a set of positive results emerges, while in the. second there is a consistent failure to support hypothesized relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper deals with a leadership change experiment conducted in a major component part (sub-system) of a manufacturing organization (system). The leaders (foremen) in seven of eight groups comprising an entire department of critical importance in the organization were reassigned on 2 days' notice in accordance with an experimental plan designed by the author. The nature of the experiment and associated data provide an unusual opportunity for an empirical field test on certain central aspects of open systems theory as applied to formal organizations.² [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is a secondary analysis of the data from two risk taking gambling experiments to test the value of risk hypothesis. The value of risk hypothesis is said to be true if the value of taking a risk is positive and if the level of risk at maximum expected value shifts towards greater risk for groups compared with individuals. Based upon the task, a method for imputing the value of risk is presented and then used to test the hypothesis. Data support the assumption of a positive value for risk taking but do not support a shift in maximum expected value risk. Therefore, the data do not support; the value of risk hypothesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper maintains that the work of B. F. Skinner has not been recognized in the administrative and management literature to the extent that it deserves The work of Skinner is highly consistent with that of many widely accepted students of management, except that Skinner's work deals specifically with scheduling reinforcements, does not require acceptance of the metaphysics of many of the "humanistic" psychologists, and is based on considerable empirical evidence. The power of positive reinforcement, the unanticipated consequences of punishment, and the value of partial reinforcement are stressed. Finally, the operant view is applied to some managerial problems. It seems clear that the conditioning approach can meaningfully integrate much of the behavioral science literature and serve organizations in the areas of personnel development, job design, compensation and alternative rewards, and organizational design. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper discusses the application of Bayes's theorem to those cases where the true state of the world is not known with certainty. An algorithm is proposed that relaxes the requirement of Bayes's theorem that the true data state be known with certainty by postulating a true but unobservable elementary event, ω, which gives rise to posterior probabilities which reflect the uncertainty of the data. A derivation is presented for the calculation of Bayesian posterior probabilities which uses as its input these probabilities, rather than the true event, o, which is assumed to be unavailable. Suggestions are made as to the application of this modification of Bayes's theorem to cascaded inference processes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper describes an experiment performed to evaluate the JUDGE technique (Judged Utility Decision Generator). The JUDGE system is designed to dispatch aircraft on non-preplanned close air support missions, the number dispatched depending on judgments of target values made by experts at the times when targets appear. In contrast to an earlier field study employing Air Force officers as subjects, the current experiment included an extensive training period, longer scenarios, and repeated measurements. The subjects were fourteen students from the junior and senior Army ROTC classes at UCLA; they worked for two hours a day over the eight weeks of the experiment. For comparison, JUDGE was pitted against a second technique called DASC in the experiment, the name being taken from the Direct Air Support Center. This mode of operation is a hypothetical version of the system the Air Force currently uses, and is not a standard Air Porte procedure. The subjects performed in both modes against all the situations in the simulated war. In the JUDGE mode, the subjects assigned a value to each target as it appeared by comparing it with a "standard" target, which had a constant value of 100 throughout the experiment. A computer program then translated each subject's responses into dispatching decisions, and evaluated those decisions based on his value responses. Operating in the DASC mode, the subject received target reports identical to those in the JUDGE mode, but also containing a graph showing how effective various numbers of aircraft would be against the target. The subject himself assigned aircraft to the target, being permitted to allocate any even number from 0 to 16 of the aircraft remaining to him. The results clearly show the superiority of JUDGE over DASC when measured by an expected utility criterion. JUDGE performed at the 90% level when compared with the perfect possible performance. DASC reached a level of only 40%. We conclude from this that JUDGE is more effective in implementing a subject's value judgments than the subject is himself, The reliability of both systems was evaluated by measuring both the intersubject and intrasubject correlations. These two measures were substantially higher for the JUDGE system than for DASC, revealing that an exceptional amount of agreement occurs within JUDGE. Examination of the data processing task in isolation from the judgmental process in the decision environment led to the conclusion that JUDGE gains its advantage by turning over the necessary mechanical calculations to a computer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The present paper is concerned with the development of efficient signs or symbols for use in visual communication. In particular, it describes and illustrates a technique for generating such signs, and presents a series of experiments undertaken to evaluate this technique. Although the application of these methods was limited to a specialized set of concepts (military intelligence terms), and the test experiments for signs developed were highly selective, it was believed that the principles involved have implications for several rather divergent areas of psychology which share an interest in language and communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The efficiency of the power-function model in describing and predicting the adaptation of existing groups to new technologies has been demonstrated in a large number of industrial settings. The generality of this function in describing a second category of adaptation--that of newly established groups to existing technologies-is investigated in this paper. The adaptation of different sets of newly formed groups to two experimental tasks was investigated; twelve groups of three subjects were given a business simulation task and 11 groups of five subjects were given a common symbol task of the Bavelas-Leavitt type. It is concluded that the power-function model describes the adaptation of both sets of groups very efficiently and that a strong relation- ship between the parameters of this model may provide a method of predicting group adaptation curves at the initiation of task performance. The practical implication of these findings for organizational planning, co-ordination, and control are described. A set of behavioral elements common to the industrial and experimental processes are identified and discussed as a possible beginning in the development of a theory of group adaptation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper summarizes and integrates research concerned with a long-neglected topic in psychology: the relationship between conscious goals and intentions and task performance. The basic premise of this research is that an individual's conscious ideas regulate his actions. Studies are cited demonstrating that: (1) hard goals produce a higher level of performance (output) than easy goals; (2) specific hard goals produce a higher level of output than a goal of "do your best"; and (3) behavioral intentions regulate choice behavior. The theory also views goals and intentions as mediators of the effects of incentives on task performance. Evidence is presented supporting the view that monetary incentives, time limits, and knowledge of results do not affect performance level independently of the individual's goals and intentions. A theoretical analysis supports the same view with respect to three other incentives: participation, competition, and praise and re- proof. Finally, behavioral intentions were found to mediate the effects of money and "verbal reinforcement" on choice behavior. It is concluded that any adequate theory of task motivation must take account of the individual's conscious goals and intentions. The applied implications of the theory are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper develops a model of organizational participative decision making (PDM) which emphasizes equilibrium and social change. Using attitudes as a mediating variable, the analysis explores organizational homeostatic reactions to an experimental PDM program. Various mechanisms are described by which PDM may contribute to motive satisfaction of managers and subordinates and to organizational goal attainment. Using this approach, the effects of several mediating variables on PDM are entertained. The PDM literature is summarized briefly and criticized in depth. Research in nonorganizational settings is not relevant, for the central issues in organizational PDM are ignored. Although less at fault, observational studies of organizations offer insufficient support for the PDM hypothesis. Experimental studies in organizations could provide the best support, but the data are mixed (yet suggestive). It is suggested that future research focus on mediating factors in PDM. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Part I of this paper is a review of the literature concerning the effects of culture on cognition. The relevance of these studies to interpersonal relations in international organizations is explored. A number of broad hypotheses are suggested. At a more specific level three hypotheses are presented. In the case of high-status visitors working in a low-status culture: (1), the visitor's stereotype of the hosts will be negative; (2) the visitor's stereotype of the host culture will be more negative than the stereotype of members of the visitor's culture who have not come into face-to-face relationships with the host culture; and (3) the stereotype of the hosts toward the visitors will be negative, but will also reflect the presumed higher competence of the visitors. Part II reports a study which supports these hypotheses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper argues that organizational researchers should study triads and the process of coalition formation more intensely since triads contain several organizational properties that are not found in smaller groups. A triad task is proposed that offsets many shortcomings of previous tasks used to study three person groups. Procedural variations and psychological properties of the task are discussed as are reformulations of traditional issues in triad theory that seem feasible given the properties of the triad task. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Problems in interpretation have arisen in Dodson's modification of Bayes's theorem which is the original formulation for use in multistage inference situations. This paper gives a model for which Dodson's algorithm is appropriate, and contrasts this model to a model developed by Gettys and Willke (Organizational Behavior and Human Performance, 1969, 4, 125-141). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The following four papers are modified versions of papers delivered in a symposium titled "The Role of Financial Compensation in Managerial Motivation" held during the Spring, 1965 meetings of the Midwestern Psychological Association. Dunnette presents an instrumental model of managerial motivation and discusses its implications for research on the motivational effects of compensation. He also reviews research related to Preferences (motives) most often found to be salient for managers. Lawler summarizes previous research on the effects of secret salary policies on manager satisfaction and presents results of another recent study showing that policies of pay secrecy have several costs not generally recognized. Secrecy apparently blurs managers' perceptions of what others earn; they overestimate the salaries of peers and of subordinates and this can lead to greater pay dissatisfaction and the belief that job performance is rather unimportant in determining pay. Weick reviews the psychological literature bearing on the effects of insufficient rewards on the intensity of effort. He reviews evidence in support of the relationship, postulates several properties of experimental procedures to explain the effects, and suggests that propositions from frustration or cue-utilization theory may afford the most parsimonious explanation of the relationship. Finally, Opsahl provides an overview of current, knowledge about managerial compensation and its effect on managerial job behavior, and suggests areas in need of further intensive research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]