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The article discusses potential obstacles to an economic recovery in the U.S. Any spike in economic growth could impel oil prices higher. Fears of inflation might push interest rates up and further harm a battered housing market. Optimists hope that economic-stimulus measures can elicit demand without driving prices up.

The article discusses the anomalous nature of the current economic downturn in the U.S. Usually, rising unemployment precedes an increased incidence of mortgage and credit-card defaults. In 2008, however, defaults began to rise in advance of the unemployment rate. Mark Zandi of economist.com notes that each could exacerbate the other in a self-reinforcing cycle.

The article reports that the chief financial officers (CFO) of an increasing number of U.S. corporations are reporting a slowdown in consumer spending on their goods and services, leading to a decline in profits for the first quarter of 2008. The firms reporting this development included clothing manufacturer Jones Apparel Group and the credit card company American Express Co.

The article reports on the large gain in the Dow Jones Industrial Average for the last week of January 2007, despite a negative U.S. Labor Department employment report. Despite fears of a recession and a decline in nonfarm payrolls, the unemployment rate fell and other economic indicators were hopeful.

The article discusses why economic indicators to be released during the first week of January, 2010 aren't necessarily reliable guides to the state of the U.S. economy. During that period figures for both manufacturing activity and unemployment are scheduled to be disclosed. However, manufacturing data are likely to be skewed by activity in the automobile industry, while too much uncertainty surrounds employment.

The article discusses personal income in the U.S. Economists expect data to show personal income rose slightly in October, 2009. Despite that, aggregate income in the U.S. has fallen steeply amid rising unemployment and a severe economic recession. Although tax breaks and other government programs have helped prop up consumer spending, economic recovery could be fitful if job-creation remains weak.

The article discusses the recovering U.S. economy. Economists expect that gross domestic product for the third quarter of 2009 increased by almost 3%, with indications that the fourth quarter was even more robust. Both Princeton University economist Alan Blinder and Paul Kasriel of Northern Trust think growth will prompt the U.S. Federal Reserve to hike interest rates sooner than some expect.

The article discusses inflation in the U.S. Although the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to report an increase in the consumer price index for November, 2009, the U.S. economy is not strong enough for vigorous inflation to take hold. Figures due from the Federal Reserve on capacity utilization for November will probably show use rates below levels some believe are necessary to keep prices from declining.

The article discusses the U.S. Federal Reserve's policy with respect to interest rates. Futures prices suggest investors expect the Fed will begin raising rates before September, 2010. History has shown that stock prices tend to fall about one-half year before rates rise. Given the unusual economic environment in 2009, the impact on prices of higher rates could be especially pronounced.

The article examines U.S. economic conditions. Retail trade statistics for October-November, 2009 indicate that consumption will continue to be steady or decline slightly as consumers remain reluctant to spend. This in turn is expected to keep the rate of inflation low. The implications of the December, 2009 consumer confidence index of the University of Michigan are considered.

The article discusses earnings for Kroger Co. Profits are expected to be down some for its most recently completed quarter. Kroger has suffered from an economic recession in the U.S. that has prompted consumers to patronize cheaper rivals such as Wal-Mart Stores Inc. and Costco Wholesale. A recovery marked by slowly rising prices could help Kroger, although analyst Mark Wiltamuth of Morgan Stanley is skeptical the economy will rebound fast enough for that to happen.

This article reports on volatility in the stock market in the United States as of December 2009. An analysis of the Chicago Board Options Exchange's VIX index, which tracks volatility in S&P 500 options, is presented. It is suggested that increased bank losses in commercial real estate and consumer credit, in addition to a failing housing market and increased debt could cause more volatility in the future.

The article discusses the U.S. Federal Reserve's balance sheet. Purchases of Treasury bonds, mortgage-backed securities and other instruments have caused assets held by the Fed to more than double, and increased the U.S. monetary base to almost $2 trillion. Subdued demand for loans and an unwillingness among banks to lend, though, have both kept inflation in check and impeded an economic recovery.

The article discusses an index for inventories of manufactured goods maintained by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Thus far the ISM index has not reflected expectations that inventory reductions prompted by an economic recession in the U.S. would be reversed. Data compiled by the U.S. Commerce Department suggest that inventory levels remain at high levels relative to demand.

The article compares and contrasts present economic conditions with those of October, 1983. Common features include high unemployment in the U.S. and a rising stock market. In 1983 stocks were cheaper than they are today, though, and the Federal Reserve had much more room to cut interest rates. Household debt was much lower than it is today.

The article discusses unemployment in the U.S. Figures due from the Bureau of Labor Statistics are expected to show the unemployment rate has reached 9.9%. Since World War II unemployment has usually peaked about 2 months following a recession's end. Given that a recent recession in the U.S. may have ended in June, 2009, the data suggest the ensuing recovery is failing to produce jobs.

The article discusses economic growth in the U.S. Economists expect that gross domestic product grew 3.2% during the third quarter of 2009, fueled by reduced liquidation of corporate inventories and federal incentives that boosted home-buying. However, continued growth will depend on greater demand, which high levels of consumer debt and tight credit conditions pose a challenge to.

The article discusses the performance of transportation stocks and what that bodes for the U.S. economy. Since March, 2009 transportation shares have outperformed those in the Dow Jones Industrial Average, usually a sign of economic recovery. However, earnings at several firms including C.H. Robinson Worldwide and Continental Airlines have exceeded estimates through cost reduction rather than revenue growth.

The article discusses an index of manufacturing activity maintained by the Institute for Supply Management. Economists expect results to be released October 1, 2009 will show that the U.S. manufacturing sector continues to gain strength. However, Paul Dales of Capital Economics warns that the index has overstated overall economic growth in the past.

The article discusses U.S. economic indicators and presents economic forecasting for the second half of 2009. A revised estimate of gross domestic product for the second quarter is expected to show little change from the original report of a 1 percent decline. Most economists forecast a 3 percent or more increase in gross domestic product for the third quarter, followed by a smaller increase in the fourth.

The article examines U.S. economic conditions and the economic indicator the consumer confidence index. The index is forecast to show a modest increase for September, 2009. Consumer spending remains the most important element of the U.S. economic, but the massive losses of wealth created by the collapse of the housing bubble and global financial crisis make it difficult to forecast higher levels of such spending.

The article discusses U.S. economic conditions. The Bureau of the Census's report on durable goods orders for August, 2009 is expected to show an increase. This is part of a trend of overall improvement for U.S. manufactures. The relatively low amount of corporate debt, especially short-term commercial paper, indicates that continuing improvement in the overall economy will be limited.

The article discusses the U.S. housing market. A Census Bureau report on new house construction starts for August, 2009 is expected to show an increase over totals for June, 2009 of 3.3 percent. An end to the decline in house construction that followed the collapse of the real estate bubble could significantly add to growth of U.S. gross domestic product.

The article discusses U.S. manufactures. The Institute of Supply Management will release its index of manufacturing activity for August, 2009 on August 31. Economists believe the index will show a small increase in manufacturing activity, the first such increase in the index since January, 2009. Such a report would be another sign that the recession has halted.

The article discusses prospects for business spending to spur economic growth in the U.S. Although businesses have plenty of cash on hand, lessons from the 2001 recession indicate firms could be reluctant to spend once an economic downturn ends. In July of 2009 U.S. factory utilization was under 70%, suggesting little need for expenditures to boost capacity.

The article discusses the Case-Shiller index of U.S. home prices. In May of 2009 the index recorded its first gain in three years, and updated figures to be released in August of that year are expected to show the the rate of decline in home prices is slowing. However, Ivy Zelman of Zelman & Associates notes that anticipated declines in the prices of more expensive homes could exert downward pressure on the index.

The article discusses joblessness in the U.S. Although claims for state unemployment benefits have fallen from highs reached in March, 2009, they still indicate hundreds of thousands of people are losing their jobs each month. Over 9 million people continue to receive jobless benefits, while others have exhausted their benefits.

The article discusses the U.S. trade deficit. Government figures from the Commerce Department are expected to show that the deficit grew in June, 2009 for the third time in four months. Although an increasing deficit could indicate that the U.S. economy is improving, it also means that figures for gross domestic product will no longer benefit from diminishing imports.

The article discusses productivity in the U.S. Although economists expect productivity grew at a healthy pace during the second quarter of 2009, that improvement will be largely due to rising unemployment and reduced labor costs. It remains to be seen whether recovery from an ongoing recession will be a self-sustaining one that creates jobs.

The article discusses U.S. employment and the labor market. Economic indicators are presented which suggest that the continued increase in unemployment during the recession may halt, and that there could be actual increases in employment before the end of 2009. Any such recovery, however, is forecast to be weak.

The article discusses what data on the job market portend for the U.S. economy. During a typical recession claims for jobless benefits tend to fall quickly after peaking. Although such claims seem to have peaked in March, 2009, they remain stubbornly high. In addition, neither temporary employment nor hours in the average work week have increased. Altogether the figures suggest economic recovery in the U.S. has yet to begin.

The article discusses an index on U.S. manufacturing activity due from the Institute for Supply Management on July 1, 2009. Expectations are that the index will reflect improvement over the prior month's reading. Data on inventories, though, suggest relatively high levels that must be worked down before manufacturing can experience strong growth.

The article discusses the potential impact on stocks of several economic reports to be released the week of June 21, 2009. Updated figures on durable-goods sales, new-home sales, and weekly jobless claims in the U.S. will all be released. Strategist Tobias Levkovich believes investors will be looking for signs that the economy has stopped deteriorating.

The article discusses consumer debt in the U.S. At the end of 2008 household debt was almost equal to the nation's annual economic output. At that time debt amounted to about 130% of disposable income. Amid high unemployment and tight credit conditions, heavily-indebted consumers are not likely to lead the nation out of recession.

The article discusses an index on manufacturing activity in the U.S. to be released in June, 2009 by the Institute for Supply Management (ISM). Economists expect a reading consistent with an economy that is no longer shrinking. However, the ISM's index has an erratic record of predicting economic recoveries.

The article discusses the U.S. housing market. Although some believe home sales could be approaching their nadir, the housing market won't begin to recover until house prices stop falling. Homes owned by banks and investors could exert further downward pressure on prices. Michelle Meyer of Barclays Capital believes home prices might not stabilize until well into 2010.

The article discusses the U.S. job market and its prospects once the economy recovers. Data on weekly claims for unemployment benefits suggest they may have peaked. However, the recoveries from both the 1990-1991 and 2001 recessions were not accompanied by a significant drop in the U.S. Labor Dept.'s insured unemployment rate. It is thus unclear how much the job market will improve once the economy does.

The article discusses economic productivity in the U.S. A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show that productivity rose slightly during the first quarter of 2009. After having substantially trimmed inventories in response to falling demand, businesses may be ready to rebuild them again. In the short term, however, employees may not benefit.

The article discusses new claims for jobless benefits in the U.S. For the week ended April 18, 2009 economists estimate new claims of about 640,000. If the actual figure does not exceed 647,000, it could suggest the end of an ongoing recession in the U.S. might not be far away. However, that would not necessarily mean the economy is set to resume growth.

The article discusses the gap between actual and potential economic output in the U.S. A report to be issued in April, 2009 by the U.S. Federal Reserve could show U.S. industries to be operating at less than 70% of their capacity. Along with rising unemployment, such a production gap counteracts the inflationary tendencies of ramped-up government spending.

The article discusses unemployment in the U.S. A report from the Bureau of Labor Statistics is expected to show that 673,000 non-farm jobs were lost during March, 2009. Job losses among small businesses that employ fewer than 500 workers have been particularly severe, totalling 3.7 million since an ongoing recession began.

The article discusses options available to the U.S. Federal Reserve for invigorating the economy now that the target federal funds rate is near 0%. Although various lending programs have seen the Fed's assets approach almost $2 trillion, economist Jan Hatzius believes it needs to buy substantially more assets in the financial markets in order to prevent deflation.

The article discusses the risk for deflation in the U.S. A producer-price index to be released by the U.S. Department of Labor is expected to show a modest 0.4% increase. Other warning signs include manufacturing capacity being utilized at record low levels, and a rising unemployment rate that could dampen consumer demand further.

The article discusses the potential long-term impact on the unemployment rate in the U.S. of an ongoing economic recession. By one measure over 14% of the work force is either unemployed or underemployed. Economist Bruce Kasman believes it will take several years of strong growth in gross domestic product to get unemployment back down to 6%.

The article discusses implications of an unemployment report to be released by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics on March 6, 2009. Although the report is expected to show substantial job losses for February, 2009, those figures could be a consequence of employers scaling down production. If so, then at some point the need for further job cuts will vanish and hiring could pick up.

The article discusses the diminishing impact of falling gas prices on the U.S. economy. From an average high of over $4 per gallon in July, 2008, gas prices have declined to well under $2 per gallon. Gasoline production has fallen 5% over the past year. The reduced output could indicate the economy is unlikely to enjoy further benefits from lower gas prices.

The article evaluates the report for U.S. international trade in December, 2008 to be released by the Commerce Department on January 11, 2009. The balance of trade deficit is expected to shrink for the second consecutive month. This would ordinarily be considered good news for the economy, but the decline is due to the overall fall in demand created by the global recession. U.S. exports are forecast to fall as well as imports.

The article discusses the ability of the U.S. economy to be the first to emerge from a global recession. That federal officials are responding aggressively to combat recession argues in favor of the U.S. leading a recovery. However, the U.S. is also weighted down by a massive federal debt. Alan Ruskin of RBS Greenwich Capital questions whether any strong leader will appear.

The article discusses U.S. gross domestic product (GDP). Economists expect GDP fell 5.5% during the fourth quarter of 2008. Although such steep declines are often followed by growth during the succeeding quarter, excessive inventories in the U.S. help make growth unlikely for the first quarter of 2009.

The article discusses modestly hopeful signs for the U.S. economy. Two manufacturing reports issued the week of January 11, 2008 showed continued deterioration in the sector, albeit at a reduced pace. Similar can be said for an index of economic indicators produced by the Economic Cycle Research Institute.