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• We develop a quantitative spatial equilibrium model with emissions regulation. • Counterfactual analyses of regional structural changes due to emissions regulation. • Emissions regulations impact regional GDP via regional-sectoral linkages. • Cross-regional impacts of emissions regulations have typical geographical characteristics. • Sectoral linkages widen variation in emissions regulations' impact on regional GDP. We develop and quantitatively evaluate a spatial general equilibrium model that incorporates carbon emission regulations. We study the impact of emission regulation on the economies of regions within a country under climate change mitigation goals, and how the impact of emission regulation in one region influences other regions through regional‒sectoral linkages. The model is calibrated using Chinese regional and sectoral data, and several counterfactual exercises are performed. The results indicate that undifferentiated increases in emission regulation across regions have resulted in inter-regional differences in real GDP changes; however, "equity-oriented" regionally differentiated emissions regulations reduce this imbalance. Regarding interactions between regions, negative impacts on the economy are characterized by geographical proximity, whereas positive impacts are not geographically constrained. Sectoral linkages exacerbate the negative economic impacts of emission regulations and widen regional disparities. Additionally, we demonstrate the extended application of our model through two case studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China is facing challenges to tackle the threat of climate change while reducing social inequality. Poverty eradication requires improvement in the living conditions of low-income households, which leads in turn to higher carbon footprints and may undermine the efforts of climate change mitigation. Previous studies have assessed the climate impacts of poverty eradication, but few have quantified how the additional carbon emissions of poverty eradication are shared at the subnational level in China and the impact on China's climate targets. We investigated the recent trend of carbon footprint inequality in China's provinces and estimated the climate burden of different poverty reduction schemes, measured by increased carbon emissions. The results indicate that poverty eradication will not impede the achievement of national climate targets, with an average annual household carbon footprint increase of 0.1%–1.2%. However, the carbon emissions growth in less developed provinces can be 4.0%, five times that in wealthy regions. Less developed regions suffer a greater climate burden because of poverty eradication, which may offset carbon reduction efforts. Therefore, interregional collaboration is needed to coordinate inequality reduction with investments in low-carbon trajectories in all provinces. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Green finance is an effective policy instrument in mitigating climate change, but to date little is known about its impact on carbon dioxide (CO 2) emissions. This study extends the literature on the relationship between green finance and CO 2 emissions while taking trade openness and economic development into consideration to comprehensively explore the conservation/feedback hypothesis using the Autoregressive-Distributed Lag–Error Correction Model (ARDL–ECM) on data collected from 2000 to 2019. By constructing a green finance index comprising green credit, green securities, green insurance, and green investment, results include the following. (1) Support was found for the conservation hypothesis running from green finance, trade openness, and economic development to emissions per capita; the conservation hypothesis also was supported for the unidirectional relationship running from trade openness and economic development to green finance. (2) Green finance is found to be significantly and negatively related to emissions per capita in both the short and long term. (3) Trade openness shows a positive effect on emissions per capita. Robustness tests are provided. This study deepens policy implications of green finance in the post-pandemic era and highlights the moderating role of renewable energy in the green finance impact on carbon mitigation. • This study constructs a green finance index for China. • The autoregressive distributed lag–error correction model is employed. • Green finance contributes to carbon mitigation in both the short and long run. • CO 2 emissions are Granger result of green finance, trade openness and economic growth. • Trade openness and economic growth are Granger causes of each other. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] China is playing an increasing role in global climate change mitigation, and local authorities need more city-specific information on the emissions trends and patterns when designing low-carbon policies. This study provides the most comprehensive CO 2 emission inventories of 287 Chinese cities from 2001 to 2019. The emission inventories are compiled for 47 economic sectors and include energy-related emissions for 17 types of fossil fuels and process-related emissions from cement production. We further investigate the state of the emission peak in each city and reveal hidden driving forces. The results show that 38 cities have proactively peaked their emissions for at least five years and another 21 cities also have emission decline, but passively. The 38 proactively peaked cities achieved emission decline mainly by efficiency improvements and structural changes in energy use, while the 21 passively emission declined cities reduced emissions at the cost of economic recession or population loss. We propose that those passively emission declined cities need to face up to the reasons that caused the emission to decline, and fully exploit the opportunities provided by industrial innovation and green investment brought by low-carbon targets to achieve economic recovery and carbon mitigation goals. Proactively peaked cities need to seek strategies to maintain the downward trend in emissions and avoid an emission rebound and thus provide successful models for cities with still growing emissions to achieve an emission peak. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ethylene is one of the most important products in the emissions-intensive petrochemical industry. Decarbonizing the ethylene industry is thus important for achieving global carbon neutrality. This study is the first to explore future long-term zero-emissions production pathways for the ethylene industry in China, the world's biggest ethylene producer. An optimization model was built in the context of China's carbon neutrality target of 2060. Four scenarios were developed where the policy ambitions for climate mitigation and for plastic management including waste were varied. Based on this, authors assessed the cumulative total emissions, technology options, future geographical location of ethylene production, and policy challenges associated with each scenario. This is also the first time that scope 3 emissions from waste incineration are included, motivated by the short lifetime of most ethylene products. Results show the cumulative CO 2 emissions for the scenarios differ considerably, ranging from 4.3 to 7.8 Gt, even if carbon neutrality by 2060 is achieved in all scenarios. The results suggest that ambitious plastic focused policies can result in lower costs and less cumulative emissions compared to ambitious climate focused policies. The results demonstrate the importance of adopting CCS for waste incineration. This reduces cumulative CO 2 emissions by up to 2 Gt. However, reduced overall demand and increased recycling rates should be priority options due to CCS challenges. Results suggest Chinese ethylene industry should adopt a mixed portfolio of production technologies, where the share of emission-intensive coal-based methanol-to-olefins is limited. These findings on decarbonization pathways can contribute to achieving the Paris agreement. [Display omitted] • Ambitious plastic policies lead to 1.3 Gt less cumulative CO 2 than climate policies. • Cumulative CO 2 until 2060 can be reduced by 3.5 Gt compared to reference scenario. • Adopting CCS in incineration can reduce cumulative CO 2 emissions by 2 Gt. • Ethylene industry should adopt a mixed production portfolio due to uncertainties. • Coal-based MTO with CCS does not appear to be a cost-competitive option. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Planning power system (PS) towards renewable energy is crucial for reducing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission as well as mitigating climate change. However, the inherent uncertainty and hierarchical structure of PS pose intractable challenges to the planning process. This study develops a multi-GCM-based interval bi-level programming (MIBP) method that can balance two-level decision-making conflict between CO 2 -emisison reduction and system cost minimization. MIBP can also deal with uncertainties expressed as interval values in objective functions and constraints. Then, a MIBP-PS model is formulated to plan PS for China (2021–2050), where the upper-level objective is to minimize CO 2 emission and the lower-level objective is to minimize the system cost. The major findings are: (i) the CO 2 emission for PS would reach peak value before 2030 and then reduce by [10.2, 20.4]% in 2050, which is mainly owing to the curtailment of fossil fuel; (ii) compared with the conventional model, CO 2 emission from MIBP-PS model could decrease by [3.1, 4.8]%, which shows the superiority of the developed model; (iii) the fossil-fuel power would be gradually replaced by renewable energy, and the proportion of coal-fired power would decrease by 38.8% by 2050, especially small coal-fired facilities (i.e., below 0.3 GW) should be gradually phased down. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Implementation costs are a more relevant constraint to afforestation than opportunity costs. • Financial incentives for afforestation are constrained by market access and market prices. • Carbon-neutral and food multi-oriented land policies need further exploration. • Collaboration among global carbon markets can enhance CO 2 removal efficiency. Afforestation is a promising nature-based climate solution for mitigating climate change, but it is subject to a complex web of biophysical, cost-benefit, market, and policy processes. Although its biophysical feasibility has been established, the cost, market, and policy constraints that affect climate change mitigation through afforestation are still unclear. Here, we estimate such cost, market, and policy constraints on the basis of biophysical feasibility. Our findings reveal that implementation costs are a more relevant constraint than opportunity costs on mitigating climate change through afforestation. The China Certified Emission Reduction market currently provides only a 0.308 % incentive for climate change mitigation through afforestation, due to market access constraints. The current market prices of China Certified Emission Reduction, China Carbon Emissions Trading Exchange, and Nature Based Carbon Offset in Voluntary Carbon Market constrain 88.15 %, 87.95 %, and 85.75 % of CO 2 removal actions through afforestation, compared to the carbon price scenario (US$62.97 tCO 2 -1) of the EU Emissions Trading System. Moreover, land policy under the scenarios of prohibiting conversion of cultivated land to forest and forest restoration in degraded areas exhibit 8.87–29.59 % and 65.16–74.10 % constraints, respectively, on mitigating climate change through afforestation compared to land-use freedom conversion scenarios from 2020 to 2060. Thus, enhancing the incentive price of CO 2 removal, addressing the market access barrier, strengthening cooperation between global carbon markets, and exploring carbon–neutral and food multi-oriented land policies can be valuable sources of mitigation efforts over the next 40 years. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The ever-increasing challenges related to water security and climate mitigation underscore the pressing need for forward-thinking systems planning tools to drive urban sustainability transitions. In this study, we propose a novel city-level multi-objective planning framework that explores the nexus between carbon trading and water management, with the aim of facilitating water-efficient urban industrial restructuring. The framework integrates cap-and-trade mechanisms into a two-layered optimization model, creating an integrated approach to optimizing carbon emissions and generating economic opportunities for improving water efficiency. To illustrate the potential application of this framework, we conducted a case study focusing on Dongguan City, a water-stressed industrial metropolis in southern China. The results illustrate potential synergies between water planning strategies and carbon trading schemes, which could be harnessed to enable targeted reductions in water usage and carbon emissions. Furthermore, our findings identify the textile, apparel, and paper products manufacturing industries as primary candidates for strategic production scale reduction, emphasizing the importance of sustained support for the development of the computer and electronic manufacturing sector as a catalyst for urban sustainability transitions. By pioneering this new nexus-based perspective, our study offers valuable insights into long-term strategic planning for a low-carbon and resource-efficient urban economy. • Synergizing carbon trading and water management within a novel integrated planning framework. • Implementing resource-efficiency-driven optimization for water- and carbon-intensive manufacturing sectors. • Gaining insights into the specific roles of key manufacturing sectors in water management and carbon trading. • Introducing carbon trading systems may help in promoting water-efficient industrial restructuring. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon emission reduction in China matters to global climate change mitigation. China has been experiencing extensive land changes, which profoundly influence terrestrial ecosystem carbon storage (TECS) and carbon emissions. Scholars have predicted influences of land changes on TECS in China with scenarios obtained from global integrated assessment models (IAMs), which lack national details. Moreover, universally existing variations in land-use intensity have not been considered when estimating influences on TECS. This study simulated changes of land-use intensity of China from 2000 to 2050 using CLUMondo under China-specified policies for sustainable development modeled by a national IAM named Threshold21-China. We proposed a more precise TECS estimation method by distinguishing land-vegetation and land-soil types. Results demonstrated that under scenario with preceding policies, the total TECS can increase by 865.5 Tg C from 2000 to 2050. Through implementing preceding policies, TECS loss by conversions from cultivated land to artificial surfaces can decline by 82 Tg C, and new TECS accumulated by increased and densified forests can increase by 73 Tg C. Mountainous and rapidly urbanizing regions are sensitively influenced and need more restrict land change management policies. This study demonstrates the significance of sustainable development policies for TECS conservation and indicates specific critical regions. • Introducing national IAM into land change simulation. • Considering land-use intensities in land change simulation. • Proposing an improved TECS estimation method. • Estimating influences of land changes on China's TECS. • TECS accumulation could be improved under sustainable policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Micro-level concerns about climate change can not only affect individual low-carbon behaviors but also exert intense pressure on carbon emission reduction strategies and policy design. However, whether public concern about climate change can affect per capita carbon emission is still unclear. Based on panel data from 30 provinces in China and 188,943 climate change-related blogs from 2012 to 2019, this research investigates the impact of public concern on per capita carbon emissions. Results show that, in general, public concern about climate change has a significant negative impact on per capita carbon emissions in China, indicating that climate crisis awareness has a supervisory effect on greenhouse gas emissions. Nevertheless, the effects of different public concerns on per capita carbon emissions are different, with the topics of "low-carbon appeal" and "concern for future" have significant positive impacts on per capita carbon emissions, while the topics of "carbon governance performance" and "climate change mitigation strategies" have significant negative impacts on per capita carbon emissions. The findings yield new opportunities to delve into the relationship between the externality of people's will and governmental behaviors and provide in-depth insights for decision-makers to develop tailor-made solutions towards carbon reduction and sustainable development. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Forest residues, a renewable energy, have great potential to substitute fossil fuels to reduce enormous pressures of energy shortages in mitigating climate change. However, it is a challenge to quantify forest residues at a fine spatial scale due to large spatial variations of forest species and lacking of suitable research methods. In addition, the natural decomposition of forest residue is often ignored in future greenhouse emission prediction, • We estimated the total forest residues in China reached 152.13 million t in 2018. The forest residues had faster decomposition rate (annual natural decomposition value of carbon from forest residues) in the first ten years, and then gradually decreased. In the first 14 years, the half forest residues was decomposed. The national contribution to climate change (CCC) from forest residues over one-hundred-year reached 49.27 million t CO 2 eq. The peak values of the provincial annual CCC were reached within 15 years and we found that the highest annual CCC occurred in the second year since the natural decomposition. • There are two major contents. First, a method is put forward to downscale the reserve of forest residue to county-level administrative unit. Prior to this, the resolution of the estimations was generally at provincial level. Obviously, more refined data was conducive to encourage the utilization of biomass by providing references for policymakers and investors. Second, a new index was implemented to assess the contribution of the natural decomposition of unused forest residues to climate change. • We estimated that CCC caused by their natural decomposition reaches 4.927 million t CO 2 eq, which was 0.96%−6.5% of other carbon emission sources (i.e. staple crops, inland water) in China. From a global perspective, such carbon emission was 0.015% of global wetland carbon emissions and 1.59% of global peat land carbon emissions. • Our study provides new data to support future climate mitigation, reducing the significant uncertainty in related research, and will make researchers, policymakers, and investors recognize the great potential of forest residues as an energy source and the significant contribution of their natural decomposition to climate change and promote carbon neutrality transition. Under the energy shortage and emerging climate change caused by fossil energy, forest residues were encouraged to be used as an energy resource. However, it is a challenge to quantify the forest residue at the fine spatial scale due to the available data and suitable research methods. We aimed to quantify the available forest residues in China at the county scale and clarify their potential contribution to climate change (CCC). The availability of forest residues reached 152.13 million t in 2018 in China. The CCC accumulated by natural decomposition of forest residues over one-hundred-year had reached 49.27 million tCO 2 eq. The peak values of provincial annual CCC were reached in the first 3 years in the southern region. The top four counties of CCC were all from Yunnan Province. The energy utilization of forest residues is of great significance to the management of forest resources. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a key component in mitigating global warming and achieving sustainable development strategies, wind power has received widespread attention and support from governments around the world. Numerous countries are engineering ambitious programs to map and project the mitigation potential of wind energy expansion to combat future global warming. Here, using the global installed wind capacity data, we identity that a total of 837 GW of wind energy installed capacity (WEIC) in 31 countries generated about 2186 TWh of electricity, that is 1311 Mt of CO 2 mitigation, in 2021. Considering power mix transformation, wind power could account for more than 30% of total global electricity generation by the mid-21st century, when many countries expect to realize carbon neutrality, and could reduce CO 2 emission up to 14871 Mt by 2050 and 32864 Mt by 2100. Meanwhile, the global phenomenon of the future southward shift of wind energy resources makes the wind energy development in low-latitude countries, such as Brazil, Vietnam, and Central African, more confident. Combined with the Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs), we find that the mitigation benefits of wind energy expansion are significant and will directly reduce global warming by up to 0.64 °C by the end of the century (NZE deployment scenario, SSP3-7.0). For China and the United States, the share of renewable energy will reach 78% and 84% by 2050 (APS scenario) and the cumulative climate mitigation by wind power will be 0.12 °C and 0.11 °C during 2020–2100, respectively. The findings strongly support the development and practice of global climate mitigation energy solutions. • This study quantifies wind energy's impact on CO 2 and temperatures reduction. • Global wind energy can currently mitigate 1311 Mt CO 2 , up to 32864 Mt by 2100. • Wind energy expansion could mitigate global warming by up to 0.64 °C in 2100. • China and the U.S. lead global CO 2 reductions in wind power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contribution of municipal solid waste incineration (MSWI) to anthropogenic mercury and CO 2 emissions have become increasingly important over the past decade. This study developed an inventory of anthropogenic mercury emissions and CO 2 emissions during the period of 2014–2020, of MSWI process in China using a bottom-up inventory at the plant level. Overall, national MSWI anthropogenic mercury emissions increased from 2014 to 2020 by province. It was estimated that total 8321.09 kg of anthropogenic mercury emissions from 548 MSWI plants were scattered in 31 provinces of mainland China in 2020. The average intensity of mercury emission in China was 0.06 g·t−1 in 2020, which was much lower than the pre-2010 level. Furthermore, the increased CO 2 emission generated by MSWI from 2014 to 2020 is 1.97 times. Anthropogenic mercury emissions and CO 2 emissions were concentrated mainly in developed coastal provinces and cities. The general uncertainty of national mercury emissions and CO 2 emissions was estimated to be −123% to 323% and −130% to 335%, respectively. Furthermore, future emissions were predicted from 2030 to 2060 based on different scenarios of the independent and collaborative effects of control proposals, the results indicate that the enhancement of advanced air pollution control technologies and effective management of MSWI represent pivotal factors in realizing future reductions in CO 2 and mercury emissions. The findings will supplement those for mercury and CO 2 emissions, and be useful for relevant policy-making and to improve urban air quality, as well as human health. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Revealing superliner link between CFP and population density in the lower CFP cities. • Population clustering may mitigate CFP in the higher CFP cities. • Presenting policy implication of differentiated population density regulation. The growing imbalance between anthropogenic carbon emissions and vegetation carbon sequestration is impeding cities' sustainability. However, previous research has not reached a consensus on whether population density regulation can mitigate this growing imbalance. In this study, we first used the carbon footprint pressure (CFP) indicator to examine the temporal and spatial characteristics of the imbalance in 370 Chinese cities over the last 20 years. Second, we demonstrated the favorable but limited effect of existing technology on CFP mitigation using the IPAT equation, the Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index decomposition approach, and the Kaya identity. Further, we emphasized the dominant effect of the population on CFP in urban agglomerations and provincial capital cities through Maxwell's triangle. Finally, using a built panel data model, we identified an inverted U-curve relationship between CFP and population density at the middle and low quartiles, whereas population clustering promoted CFP mitigation at the upper quartiles. Given the limited effectiveness of current climate actions, as well as the coexistence of urban diseases and unoccupied buildings, we provided differentiated policy implications in city-scale for population density regulation. This study provides some inspiration for authorities to formulate city-scale population policies to mitigate climate change and achieve sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global climate change and energy crises have increasingly impeded the sustainable development of society and economy. With an accelerated process of urbanization and improved standards of living, China has become the largest carbon emitter in the world and therefore has great responsibility and great potential to mitigate global carbon emissions. Accordingly, as the largest source of emissions in China, Chinese buildings should also decrease carbon emissions towards this goal. However, until now, there has been no clear and comprehensive understanding of the carbon emissions in this sector. To fill this gap, we survey the current and future situation. Firstly, we estimate the controlled ceiling of building carbon emission, splitting from the overall reduction goal in China. Then we develop a comprehensive carbon-calculating methodology, the China Building Carbon Emissions Model, using a bottom-up approach, and assess the building carbon emissions based on official statistics. On the basis of that, scenario analysis is used to predict the future trend of carbon emissions in China's building sector. According to our analysis, it is critical to simultaneously control floor space, energy consumption and energy structure to limit the growth of carbon emissions in the building sector. Finally, some relative policy suggestions are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Clean vehicle fleet will greatly benefit air quality and climate change mitigation. Here, we employ an integrated model to systematically investigated the contribution of combined clean vehicle policies to "emissions, exposure, and health benefits" from a regional perspective 2019–2035 in China. We find that driven by clean vehicle polices, the national vehicle CO 2 will likely to peak around 2028 with about 1327 million tons, and then reduce by 7.8% from 2028 to 2035. The developed region will peak CO 2 before 2030, while the developing region probably peak after 2030. In general, most air pollutants emissions from vehicles will decrease, subsequently leading to obvious PM 2.5 and O 3 exposure decrease. About 68 thousand PM 2.5 related and 33 thousand O 3 related deaths will be avoided 2019–2035 nationwide. Note that the health benefits are unequal, with higher PM 2.5 -O 3 related excess deaths be avoided per 100000 in developed region than developing region. Besides, results show that emission standard upgrade contributes largest to emission reduction and related health benefits, followed by electric vehicles, road-to-railways and waterways, and fuel consumption regulation in general. This work is able to provide valuable information for policy makers to collaboratively reduce CO 2 , air pollutants and premature deaths in China and other developing countries. [Display omitted] • Emissions in CO 2 and air pollutants were both investigated based on a dataset with 27 vehicle categories from 338 cities. • The contribution of vehicle clean policies to abated PM 2.5 -O 3 exposure and related deaths was quantified and decomposed. • This work proposed region-specific clean vehicle pathways from a national and regional perspective 2019-2035. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Middle-class expansion has played a crucial role in driving the changes in embodied carbon emissions. However, its driving mechanisms still need to be clarified. In this paper, we compiled novel multiregional input-output tables to capture the rise of the middle class in China in terms of its expansion and consumption pattern changes. Structural path analysis was employed to investigate the critical paths of embodied carbon emissions from middle classes of different regions in China during 2012–2015. Structural path decomposition was further used to explore the driving factors along the paths, including changes in population size, consumption patterns, industrial structure, and carbon intensity. Our results show that, from 2012 to 2015, the role of the middle class in driving carbon emissions through the most critical paths was either enhanced or reduced depending on different factorial changes. Generally, the paths with enhanced roles of the middle class stemmed from the urban and rural middle classes in Central China, Southwestern Coastal, and Northern Coastal regions, and the changes in consumption patterns and population of the urban middle class were the main driving factors. The top 30 paths of carbon emissions growth driven by the urban and rural middle classes approximately increase 19.5 Mt and 8 Mt of carbon emissions, respectively. In contrast, most of the paths with the weakened role of the middle class were intraregional paths in the Southern Coastal and Eastern Coastal regions, and carbon intensity was the dominant factor governing the changes. Our analysis systematically revealed, for the first time, the heterogeneous impacts and driving factors of middle-class expansion in different regions of China on carbon emissions. Therefore, it provides new insights for climate mitigation in the context of China's plan to cultivate a majority middle-class society. • New multiregional input-output tables are compiled for the rise of the middle class in China. • Middle-class expansion has heterogeneous effects on regional carbon emissions. • Urban and rural middle class lead to an incease of 19.5 and 8 Mt CO2 for top 30 paths, respectively. • Four driving factors play different roles in supply chains affecting carbon emissions. • Consumption patterns and urban middle-class size changes were the main driving factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In an effort to contribute to climate change mitigation, China has committed to achieving its peak carbon by 2030 and carbon neutrality by 2060. However, reaching these goals will require a massive reduction in carbon emissions. The humans have to consume food to meet their survival needs. Furthermore, the society's demand for food is consistent with the development level of agricultural structures. At present, reducing environmental costs associated with food to adjust the agricultural structure has not received sufficient scientific attention. Because of this, the present study combines food consumption, climate change, and agricultural structure to design future scenarios based on the widely used SSP storyline. Moreover, in order for China to reach its carbon peak in 2030, this study applies a life-cycle approach to uncover the potential carbon reduction of Chinese residents under different dietary structures. From a demand perspective, this study puts forward recommendations for dietary restructuring and guides the direction of future agricultural restructuring in China. It also shows that a diet structure that replaces red meat with plant foods such as vegetables and fruits will have a more significant carbon reduction potential. The traditional agricultural structure consumes a large amount of food and produces a significant amount of greenhouse gases. Reducing meat and high-fat foods consumption may help reduce GHG emissions produced by food consumption. In addition, reducing the proportion of food used for feeding in the agricultural structure will also help achieve peak carbon targets. The shift in diet structure will advance China's agricultural structure and promote green agriculture development. • Food consumption and related carbon emissions within the 2030 scenario will continue to increase, with the highest share of rice consumption. • The carbon emissions of food consumption in the environmentally sustainable scenario will decrease. • Readjusting toward a more balanced diet could significantly contribute to the carbon peak goal. • A shift in dietary structure will promote agricultural restructuring. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This study developed a climatic-economic-technological integrated assessment model named CIECIA-TD-F. Based on model, the implementation effects of low carbon technology financing on climate mitigation, technology promotion, and economic development in the context of climate change cooperation were studied. The results indicate that carbon reduction, under the current pledged climate financing scale, is limited. Global surface warming in 2100 is still around 2.38 °C even when the technologies are globally shared. Low carbon technology financing improves technology R&D and absorptive capacities of the least developed countries. Their carbon reduction rates reach 50 percent under the capacity principle. However, donations impair the R&D inputs of developed countries and delay their advanced technological progress, leading to 1 percent more carbon emissions. This limits the imitations of China and Russia in turn by decreasing their imitation numbers by 1–2 percent. Collecting 800 billion USD per year from 2030 to 2100 is a climatically effective means. It holds global warming to 1.99 °C. However, the donors suffer more than 1 percent of economic losses. That indicates the economic feasibility of this means is weak. On this basis, we proposed a Pareto-improvement scheme which combines financing with technology sharing and national R&D improvements. This policy mix both achieves the 2 °C goal and protect the economic benefits of all countries. Thus, policy mix combining different measures will be more suitable for improving reduction effects and achieving multiple goals. Compared with sole technology financing, it has more significant global carbon governance meanings and is noteworthy in future climate negotiations. • Nine combinations of typical collection and dispensation principles were assessed. • The current scale of climate financing pledge was insufficient. • 2 °C goal can be achieved by improving financing scale dramatically in short term. • Advanced technology innovation was delayed for the economic losses of the funding donors. • A Pareto improving scheme was proposed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) is a crucial technology for global climate mitigation. To implement large-scale CCUS, decisions about where and how to build a CO 2 transportation network are urgently required. However, previous studies are limited in proposing the economical transportation network for CCUS that considered comprehensive risks from socio-economic, geographical and geological factors. Here, we develop a pipeline layout planning model to investigate the cost-effective and reliable transportation network for CCUS. Results show that to meet the annual CO 2 emission reduction target of 654 million tons for CCUS in the coal-fired power sector under China's carbon neutral goal, pipelines with a total length of 17,589 km need to be constructed. The emission sources can be transported in pipelines with an average radius of 58 km, and with diameters of 8, 12, and 16 inches. Northeast, north, and northwest China are the main areas suitable for pipeline construction. • Northeast, North, and Northwest in China are vital areas for capture, transport, and storage. • Five large-scale pipeline network groups can be constructed in China. • Pipeline construction is greatly affected by a variety of practical factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• An interval-parameter bi-level programming (IBP) method is proposed. • IBP can tackle conflicts between two-level decision makers under uncertainty. • An IBP_CES model is developed for planning China's energy system in 2021–2050. • The annual CO 2 emission would reduce up to 11.0% by 2050 compared with 2020 level. • Results show that IBP_CES compromises mitigation goals and economic decisions. To reach the goal of carbon-neutral society, synergistic approaches based on mathematical models that are capable of planning energy system associated with complex uncertainty and hierarchical structure are desired. In this study, an interval-parameter bi-level programming (IBP) method that is effective for solving hierarchical decision-making problems with conflict objectives and uncertainty is developed. Then, an IBP based China's energy system model (abbreviated as IBP_CES) is formulated for mainland China during 2021–2050, where the higher-level objective of minimizing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission is given priority, following by the lower-level objective of minimizing system cost. Results from IBP_CES show that, although China's energy supply would still rely heavily on fossil fuels, the share of coal would decrease to 33.9% by 2050. Results also disclose that the national CO 2 emission would reach the peak value during 2026-2030 and then decline rapidly due to development of renewable energy and promotion of carbon-treatment technology which is beneficial for government to achieve carbon neutrality goals. In addition, compared to the traditional single-level model, CO 2 emission from IBP_CES can decrease by 5.9%, demonstrating that IBP_CES is more superior in energy system decarbonization. The findings can help decision makers to well understand the interactions and tradeoffs between climate mitigation and economic development, and provide effective information on clean, sustainable and deep-decarbonized development strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China, the world's largest CO 2 emitter, is making every effort to transition to a low-carbon economy and fulfill its part of a concerted global commitment to combating climate change. In tandem with decarbonizing energy and industries, feasible supplementary measures are urgently needed to help remove anthropogenic CO 2 from the atmosphere. A burgeoning literature has emphasized the CO 2 removal capability of land re-naturalization (such as afforestation and wetland restoration), thereby regarding cognate land-use conversions as Nature-based Solutions (NbS) and potential climate policy options. However, little empirical evidence exists concerning the effectiveness of different land re-naturalization pathways (such as converting wetlands to forests or agricultural lands to grasslands), and it also remains unclear how NbS alternatives (i.e., land-use conversions resulting in negative CO 2 emission) and non-NbS options (i.e., land-use conversions resulting in positive CO 2 emission) could affect the social cost of carbon (SCC), a conventional measurement for prescribing carbon mitigation approaches. This study aims to fill in this knowledge gap via embedding NbS into the dynamic integrated climate-economics (DICE) model to quantify their impacts on the SCC. Using the Pearl River Delta region (south China) as a case study for the temporal horizon during 2000–2020, we find that both positive and negative CO 2 fluxes have been brought by different natural/semi-natural land conversions, affecting the SCC correspondingly. A total of 7 out of 17 types of land-use conversions could be identified as feasible NbS interventions, including forest restoration, forest-to-wetland, grassland-to-forest, grassland-to-wetland, grassland-to-cropland, cropland-to-forest, and cropland-to-wetland conversions, which could reduce the SCC values (comparing 2020 base-year with 2000 base-year) by 0.0132, 0.0009, 0.0033, 0.0030, 0.0001, 0.0082, and 0.0001 (USD/tCO 2), respectively. While the SCC is mainly determined by energy and industrial structure, the overall effect of NbS is larger than the sum of land urbanization and non-NbS land-use conversions. Via embedding the real-world inter-dynamics of land-use conversions into the SCC quantification, this study presents a pioneer assessment of the impacts of NbS on the SCC in an integrated framework, sheds important insights into the effectiveness of NbS, and offers practical implications for policy-makers to devise comprehensive policies covering all feasible CO 2 abatement options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We construct a multi-model comparison framework by employing typical IAMs. • We examine how China will contribute to the global 1.5 °C climate target. • China could contribute nearly one-fifth of the global negative emissions by 2100. • The proportion of BECCS could dramatically increase to 29% under the 1.5 °C case. • Energy demand control may rely more on coordination between CCS and clean energy. Enhancing the warm-limiting targets to from below 2 °C to 1.5 °C is of great significance for climate change mitigation, during which the carbon capture and storage (CCS) of China is playing an important role. By framing a multi-model analysis to compare IAMs, this study aims to explore how China can contribute to the global 1.5 °C target, consistent with achieving its carbon neutrality goal. Our multi-model assessment shows that the enhanced targets will advance the reach time of China's carbon peak and neutrality. Under a relatively smooth emission path curve with CCS, China's carbon emissions will decrease sharply by the end of this century. It is estimated that China's negative carbon emissions will contribute nearly one-fifth of the global negative emissions in 2100, with its CCS-captured emissions accounting for 14%. In the energy system, fossil- and biomass-CCS will develop rapidly, with the proportion of biomass with CCS dramatically increasing to 29% and 17% under the 1.5 °C and 2 °C scenarios, respectively. There will be a relatively large gap between the capital and final use costs of CCS, which may weaken the technical advantage when competing with renewables during the life cycle. While the overall control of the energy consumption in the later period will rely more on the proportional adjustment and the coordination between biomass with CCS and clean energy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • TUEEC in 10 urban agglomerations in China are substantially different. • TUEEC within urban agglomeration have an impact on CO 2 emissions. • Ecological construction partially mitigated emissions growth. • Guarding against unsustainable development is vital to carbon neutral. Urban agglomerations are major generators of CO 2 emissions owing to human socioeconomic activities. Evaluating the trade-offs between urban expansion and ecological construction during rapid urbanization is a crucial step towards climate change mitigation and carbon neutrality. This study investigated the impacts of trade-offs between urban expansion and ecological construction on CO 2 emissions using multi-source data and spatial and statistical analysis. Ten urban agglomerations in China, with various development levels, were selected as study areas. The results indicated that (1) urban development in the 10 urban agglomerations expanded by 90%–288.9%, while ecological land changed by −28.1–2.3%. (2) CO 2 emissions grew by 154.2–291.2% in urban agglomerations, and the south and east of China emitted more CO 2. The high-value clusters of CO 2 inside of all urban agglomerations expanded outward from cities. (3) Urban expansion increased emissions, while ecological construction partially mitigated emissions growth. Moreover, ecological development within cities helps to reduce excessive urban emissions and should be given more attention. (4) It is as important to guard against unsustainable development as it is to reduce existing high emissions. Low-carbon development paths must continue to be supported in western China. On the basis of the results, we identify important implications for meeting China's target of carbon neutrality. These contribute to an understanding of future development modes for urban agglomerations and reveal the impact of trade-offs of land use on CO 2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Building sector plays a significant role in China's ambitous climate targets to peak carbon emissions (CEs) by 2030 and to realize carbon neutral by 2060. However, studies in characterizing the CEs of urban residential buildings from life-cycle perspective at regional level are still limited, especially for the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) in China. Here, life cycle assessment method and improved building stock turnover model were employed to quantify the annual CEs of urban residential buildings (including materialization CEs of the newly-built urban residential buildings, operational CEs of the existing urban residential buildings, and CEs generated from the demolition of the existing urban residential buildings) in GBA cities from 2000 to 2018. The results show that the total CEs increased dramatically from 44.5 Mt. CO 2 e in 2000 to 75.1 Mt. CO 2 e in 2018 with an annual growth rate by approximately 3%. The CEs from operation stage accounted for around 70%, and recycling building wastes could reduce 7.5% emissions. Compared with other bay areas globally, the operational CEs of urban residential building in GBA became the highest since 2014. Therefore, climate actions in energy saving and emission mitigation are required. Based on scenario analysis, we estimated that Huizhou city can reach the peak target by 2020 if taking some effective measures. These emission findings could provide data references and suggestions for the low-carbon development path for urban residential buildings in GBA and other global cities. [Display omitted] • This study evaluates the life-cycle carbon emissions of urban residential buildings in bay area. • This study provides a reference for the carbon emission of building unit floor area. • Operation stage is the focus of emission reduction in urban residential buildings. • This study explores the path of peak carbon emissions from residential buildings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China has demonstrated great commitment to take more vigorous and effective approaches to peak carbon emissions by 2030 and achieve carbon neutrality by 2060. China's actions to mitigate CO 2 emissions are expected to simultaneously reduce co-emitted air pollutants and reduce premature deaths. This study investigates the future changes in international and regional ozone and associated health and economic benefits of stringent climate mitigation policy in China by 2050. Results show that China's stringent mitigation policy positively impacts air quality and public health in China and its downwind transboundary regions, Japan and South Korea. More specifically, approximately 15,800 and 35,550 ozone-related premature deaths will be avoided globally in 2030 and 2050 worldwide, with 78% and 76% happening in China. The avoided ozone-related mortality could save 3 billion USD in 2030 and 10 billion USD in 2050 based on the willingness to pay method. Figure 2 Avoided ozone-related morality under China's strict climate mitigation policy in different regions in 2030 and 2050 [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With the aim to meet customers diverse energy needs by an economical and ecological means, integrated energy system has become a popular choice. Amongst various integrated energy system coupling configurations, individual heating infrastructure entails painstaking attention due to rapid expansion. Individual heating network plays a massive role in carbonizing the atmosphere as traditionally individual heating demands are fulfilled by fossil fuel-fired (natural gas and coal) boilers. Recently, trend is heading towards the integration of energy efficient technologies like micro combined heat and power and heat pumps to replace fossil fuel boilers. However, individual heating performance evaluation is generally investigated by energy analysis that employs only the first law of thermodynamics, thereby exergy analysis assessment and its comparison with energy analysis become noteworthy to measure actual performance. In this work, energy and exergy analysis of the individual heating network of China for the year 2030 is performed under the framework of both laws of thermodynamics. The proposed work includes various technological options like Hydrogen fired micro combined heat and power, natural gas fired micro combined heat and power and heat pumps to replace the fossil fuel boilers intending to attain an economically viable and carbon-free environment. At first, energy and exergy efficiencies of the aforementioned heat producing components are computed and afterwards EnergyPLAN technical simulation strategy is employed to evaluate performance in terms of costs, CO 2 emissions and primary energy supply. Subsequently, a comparison of both analysis is provided in order to present the difference between the two analysis which substantiates that exergy analysis provides inferior results than energy analysis as depicted in case 3 where heat pumps inclusion appears to be the most decarbonized alternative for energy analysis but corroborates vice versa for exergy analysis. However, exergy analysis complements the energy analysis that helps evaluating the actual performance of system in relation to climate change mitigation and cost-effectiveness. • Energy and exergy analysis of individual heating network of China is performed. • Economical and decarbonized environment is proposed. • Exergy analysis results are inferior to energy analysis. • Heat Pump is considered worse alternative according to exergy analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Achieving the carbon neutral targets before year 2060 is one of the important commitments for mitigating global climate change by Chinese government. However, the manner in which one would maximize the carbon sequestration of the planted forests is still unclear. Estimating accurately the carbon balance in forestry depends highly on the dynamics of numerous delay-released carbon pools (e.g., harvest residues, wood products), thus the strategies used to account for the carbon emissions of these components may have great influences on the decision-making and profitability associated with planted forests. This study developed a tool that allows forest managers and policy makers to analyze the effects of alternative accounting strategies for recognizing carbon emissions on the optimal rotation lengths and profitability of planted forests. The considered carbon balance not only refers to the within-forest pools, e.g., living biomass, harvest residues, annually generated litters and dead trees, but also refers to the outside-forest pools that include wood products, biofuel, operating process and substitution effect. The obtained results indicated that the lengths of optimal forest rotation decreased significantly with increases in site index, planting density and discount rate, while they increased dramatically with increases of carbon price. The gaps in rotation lengths were as large as 13.5 years, 6.9 years, 27.6 years and 11.0 years, respectively for the ranges of site index (10–18 m), planting density (2500–4444 trees per hectare), discount rate (1%–5%), and carbon prices (0–880 CNY/ton CO 2) assumed. The effects of delay-released carbon pools on the optimal rotation lengths were not significant, when the substitution effects of wood products and biofuels were considered under the current carbon trading markets; however, some exceptions were observed when a very high carbon price (880 CNY/ton CO 2) was assumed. [Display omitted] • A management tool that considers carbon balance and wood production was developed. • The optimal rotations are sensitive to forest- and economic-based variables. • The delayed effects of carbon emissions on optimal rotations were offset by substitution effects. • Pricing CO 2 sequestrated in forests can increase optimal rotations and profitability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • A bi-level joint-probabilistic programming approach is developed. • It can handle leader–follower issues and joint-probabilistic constraints. • The proposed approach is applied to China's multi-regional energy system model. • The optimal schemes during 2021–2050 under three mitigation scenarios are obtained. • Results are helpful to achieve low-carbon goals in multi-regional energy system. Climate change mitigation and renewable resources utilization are becoming particularly urgent for energy system management. In this study, a bi-level joint-probabilistic programming (BJPP) method is developed for planning multi-regional energy system under different mitigation policies and uncertainties. BJPP can handle leader–follower issues in decision-making process as well as examine the risk of violating joint-probabilistic constraints. Based on the BJPP method, a China's multi-regional energy system (named as BJPP_CMES) model is formulated to provide optimal scheme for energy system planning of China over a long-term horizon (2021–2050) by synergistically minimizing carbon dioxide (CO 2) emission and system cost. A series of scenarios associated with different carbon capture and storage (CCS) levels and violation risks of energy-demand constraints are examined. Results reveal that: (i) the share of non-fossil energy in China's energy supply would keep increasing in 2021–2050, and the highest growth of the renewable supply would occur in Ningxia (rising 47.7%); (ii) Sichuan, Inner Mongolia, and Gansu would be the top three suppliers of renewable electricity; (iii) the CO 2 emission of China would reach a peak of [44.3, 54.8] billion tonnes during the period of 2026–2030; Shandong, Inner Mongolia, and Shanxi would be main contributors of CO 2 emission in the future; (iv) compared with the single-level model, the CO 2 emission from the BJPP_CMES model would reduce by [2.7, 5.7]%; (v) among developed regions, the individual probability level of Jiangsu-Zhejiang-Shanghai is the most significant parameter for both CO 2 emission and system cost. The findings are helpful for decision makers to optimize multi-regional energy system (MES) with a low-carbon and cost-effective manner, as well as to provide useful information for renewable energy utilization and regional sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Promoting technology development co-operation is particularly relevant while addressing global climate change or regional pollution. Investors may contribute to increasing environmental-related patents, which may help to improve the quality of the environment as long as supported by proper regulations and policies. In the quest towards a cleaner environment via the mitigation of climate change, this study investigates the relationship between technological innovation, income level, renewable energy and carbon emissions in both the United States and China. Applying the dynamic auto-regressive distributive lag (DARDL) simulation method revealed varying impacts of regressors on CO 2 emissions in the short-run and long-run. Accordingly, this study empirically confirms that (i) technological innovation reduces carbon emissions in the United States but it is not statistically significant in China. (ii) Renewable energy reduces carbon emissions in both countries. (iii) The impact of income level on emissions decreases from short-run to long-run in both countries. Decision-makers in China should stimulate more effective environmental-related innovations to decrease CO 2 emissions and should permit easy access to environmental-related patents together with reducing its cost of registration. • Investigates the role of green technological innovation in decreasing CO 2 emissions. • Applies the novel Dynamic ARDL simulation. • Green technological innovation reduces CO 2 emissions in the U.S. Only. • Confirms that renewable energy mitigates CO 2 emissions both in the U.S. and China. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Establishes a comprehensive framework to explore the multiple-effects exerted by urbanization on future building carbon emissions. • Constructs a carbon emission dynamic scenario simulation model by combining the extended Kaya identity and Monte Carlo simulation. • The building sector will reach its peak at 3.09 (±0.36) Bt CO 2 in 2037 (±4). • Rural residential building sector will be the first to reach its energy and emission peak. • Economic urbanization and space urbanization exert major promoting effects on the peaking time and emission peaks of building carbon emissions. The accelerating urbanization has posed great challenges to China's carbon-mitigation efforts and global climate change response. However, how does the urbanization process impact the peak of future carbon emissions from buildings is still unclear. This study first establishes a comprehensive urbanization framework from three dimensions. Then, a dynamic scenario simulation model is innovatively constructed by combining the extended Kaya identity and Monte Carlo simulation approach to explore future dynamic evolution trajectory, possible peaks and peaking time of China's building carbon emissions from 2000 to 2050, considering the uncertainties of factors. Finally, dynamic sensitivity analysis is performed to investigate the contributions of different dimensions of the urbanization. Results show that under the business-as-usual scenario, the rural residential building sector will be the first to reach its energy peak in 2027. Dynamic scenario simulation shows that the building sector will peak at 3.09 (±0.36) Bt CO 2 in 2037 (±4). Specifically, the urban residential building sector will peak at 1.27 (±0.18) Bt CO 2 in 2040 (±4), while the rural residential building sector will peak at 0.51 (±0.03) Bt CO 2 in 2021 (±4) and the commercial building sector will peak in 2038 (±4) at 1.41 (±0.30) Bt CO 2. Dynamic sensitivity analysis indicates that rural–urban migration will exert promoting effect on the peaking time and emission peaks of building carbon emissions through the concomitant effects of the urbanization process, i.e., the economic urbanization and space urbanization. Overall, this study can provide a better insight into the impact of urbanization on carbon emission peak and can support governments and decision-makers to formulate effective carbon-mitigation strategies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• EBSR divides responsibility for emissions in trade between producers and consumers. • EBSR goes beyond consumption-based (CBA) and production-based (PBA) accounting. • Responsibility is proportional to economic benefits from emitting free of charge. • With EBSR, China is attributed higher responsibility for emissions than in CBA. • Lower responsibility is attributed to both the US and the EU. How to share responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions between consumers and producers is a highly sensitive question in international climate policy negotiations. Traditional 'Production-Based Accounting' (PBA), which assigns responisibility to the region where emissions are released, has frequently been challenged by 'Consumption-Based Accounting' (CBA) schemes that suggest that greenhouse gas emissions generated to produce traded goods and services should be attributed to their final consumers. PBA and CBA both lack a sound foundation in economic theory as they do not consider the economic benefits accruing to producers or consumers if carbon emissions do not carry a price that reflects their social costs. We build on well-established economic theory to derive how to share responsibility for trade-related emissions between producers and consumers and apply this novel approach for the most prominent bilateral trade relationships using multi-regional input–output data. We propose an 'Economic Benefit Shared Responsibility' (EBSR) scheme, in which China is attributed significantly higher responsibility for emissions than in CBA, while lower emissions and responsibility are attributed to both the US and the EU. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Emissions of different classes (10 income groups) were accounted using survey data. • Population expansion of classes and change of consumption patterns were captured. • Urban middle-class and the rich contributed to 40%, 38% of total CO 2 , respectively. • Consumption pattern and population of middle class were main drivers of emissions. The sizes of China's middle and rich classes have undergone rapid and sustained growth, which has a considerable influence on consumption and the consequent carbon emissions from population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. However, the contributions of specific income classes and the effects of their population expansion have not been quantitatively evaluated. Here, we incorporated national household surveys with input-output tables from 2010–2016 and used structural decomposition analysis to determine the effects at both the national and sectoral levels. We found that the urban and rural middle classes (including lower-middle, middle, and higher-middle income groups), accounting for 39% and 27% of the total population, contributed nearly 40% and 15% of the total household consumption emissions in 2016, respectively. In comparison, the urban rich class contributed 32% of carbon emissions, with only 11% of the total population in 2016. Furthermore, the population expansion of the urban middle and rich classes strongly drove the growth of emissions from 2012 to 2016 (26% and 38% of the total increase, respectively). The consumption pattern changes of the middle and rich classes drove 131% and 83% of the growth from 2010 to 2016, respectively. Other factors, e.g., carbon intensity and industrial structure, exerted negative effects in some years. Thus, the rising middle and rich classes were the primary drivers of China's carbon emissions. Energy supply, metal smelting, wholesale and retail were the most affected sectors. The results suggested a sustained pressure of climate change mitigation in consideration of its grand plan for middle-class expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]