Rising middle and rich classes drove China's carbon emissions.

• Emissions of different classes (10 income groups) were accounted using survey data. • Population expansion of classes and change of consumption patterns were captured. • Urban middle-class and the rich contributed to 40%, 38% of total CO 2 , respectively. • Consumption pattern and population of middle class were main drivers of emissions. The sizes of China's middle and rich classes have undergone rapid and sustained growth, which has a considerable influence on consumption and the consequent carbon emissions from population growth and shifts in consumption patterns. However, the contributions of specific income classes and the effects of their population expansion have not been quantitatively evaluated. Here, we incorporated national household surveys with input-output tables from 2010–2016 and used structural decomposition analysis to determine the effects at both the national and sectoral levels. We found that the urban and rural middle classes (including lower-middle, middle, and higher-middle income groups), accounting for 39% and 27% of the total population, contributed nearly 40% and 15% of the total household consumption emissions in 2016, respectively. In comparison, the urban rich class contributed 32% of carbon emissions, with only 11% of the total population in 2016. Furthermore, the population expansion of the urban middle and rich classes strongly drove the growth of emissions from 2012 to 2016 (26% and 38% of the total increase, respectively). The consumption pattern changes of the middle and rich classes drove 131% and 83% of the growth from 2010 to 2016, respectively. Other factors, e.g., carbon intensity and industrial structure, exerted negative effects in some years. Thus, the rising middle and rich classes were the primary drivers of China's carbon emissions. Energy supply, metal smelting, wholesale and retail were the most affected sectors. The results suggested a sustained pressure of climate change mitigation in consideration of its grand plan for middle-class expansion. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]