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Urban flying-fox camps are a major source of human–wildlife conflict, producing noise, odour, vegetation damage, property damage, and concerns about disease. Although there is a significant demand in many communities for bat camps to be dispersed, there is limited information on how such dispersal can be conducted effectively. Determining the habitat characteristics flying-foxes use when selecting a camp site is key to understanding why they establish camps where they do and to where they might move if dispersed. We characterised little red flying-fox (LRFF) camp habitat at two spatial scales: floristics and vegetation structure at the local scale, and climatic and landscape characteristics at the broad scale. We found weak associations with local-scale tree and shrub height and cover, and stronger associations with increased Normalised Difference Vegetation Index (a measure of ‘greenness’) and decreased distance to nearest watercourse. These relationships were not strong enough to explain all variation in the model, suggesting that there are other factors, such as social cues, that could also influence camp site selection. Our results suggest that minor modifications to existing or proposed camp sites will be unlikely to repel or attract LRFFs, as other factors are likely to play key roles in the formation of camp sites for this species.

Few biodiversity indicators are available that reflect the state of broad-sense biodiversity—rather than of particular taxa—at fine spatial and temporal resolution. The Biodiversity Intactness Index (BII) estimates how the average abundance of native terrestrial species in a region compares with their abundances before pronounced human impacts. BII is designed for use with data from a wide range of taxa and functional groups and for estimation at any resolution for which data on land use and related pressures are available. For each year from 2001 to 2012, we combined models of how land use and related pressures in tropical and subtropical forested biomes affect overall abundance and compositional similarity of plants, fungi, invertebrates and vertebrates, with data on anthropogenic pressures to produce annual maps of modelled BII at a spatial resolution of 30 arc seconds (roughly 1 km at the equator) across tropical and subtropical forested biomes. This is the first time temporal change in BII has been estimated across such a large region. The approach we have used to model compositional similarity uses data more efficiently than that used previously when estimating BII. Across tropical and subtropical biomes, BII fell by an average of 1.9 percentage points between 2001 and 2012, with 81 countries seeing an average reduction and 43 an average increase; the extent of primary forest fell by 3.9% over the same period. Changes are not strongly related to countries’ rates of economic growth over the same period.

The legacy of deliberate and accidental introductions of invasive alien species to Australia has had a hefty economic toll, yet quantifying the magnitude of the costs associated with direct loss and damage, as well as for management interventions, remains elusive. This is because the reliability of cost estimates and under-sampling have not been determined. We provide the first detailed analysis of the reported costs associated with invasive species to the Australian economy since the 1960s, based on the recently published InvaCost database and supplementary information, for a total of 2078 unique cost entries. Since the 1960s, Australia has spent or incurred losses totalling at least US$298.58 billion (2017 value) or AU$389.59 billion (2017 average exchange rate) from invasive species. However, this is an underestimate given that costs rise as the number of estimates increases following a power law. There was an average 1.8–6.3-fold increase in the total costs per decade since the 1970s to the present, producing estimated costs of US$6.09–57.91 billion year-1 (all costs combined) or US$225.31 million–6.84 billion year-1 (observed, highly reliable costs only). Costs arising from plant species were the highest among kingdoms (US$151.68 billion), although most of the costs were not attributable to single species. Of the identified weedy species, the costliest were annual ryegrass (Lolium rigidum), parthenium (Parthenium hysterophorus) and ragwort (Senecio jacobaea). The four costliest classes were mammals (US$48.63 billion), insects (US$11.95 billion), eudicots (US$4.10 billion) and monocots (US$1.92 billion). The three costliest species were all animals – cats (Felis catus), rabbits (Oryctolagus cuniculus) and red imported fire ants (Solenopsis invicta). Each State/Territory had a different suite of major costs by species, but with most (3–62%) costs derived from one to three species per political unit. Most (61%) of the reported costs applied to multiple environments and 73% of the total pertained to direct damage or loss compared to management costs only, with both of these findings reflecting the availability of data. Rising incursions of invasive species will continue to have substantial costs for the Australian economy, but with better investment, standardised assessments and reporting and coordinated interventions (including eradications), some of these costs could be substantially reduced.

Aim: Observed, realized niche space often underestimates species’ physiological tolerances due to interactions with other species, dispersal constraints, and because some combinations of influential environmental factors do not currently exist in the real world. Conversely, correlative ecological niche models rely on the assumption that the range of environmental conditions encompassed by a species’ geographic distribution accurately reflects their environmental tolerances, including community-level approaches like generalized dissimilarity modelling (GDM). We extend GDM to better understand what effect broader environmental tolerances could have on compositional turnover under climate change. Innovation: We show how GDM can be adjusted as a function of best-available estimates of the average ratio between realized and potential niche widths to modify projected temporal turnover. We demonstrate this approach by using the estimated niche ratios of Australian plant species (n = 7,184) relative to thermal extremes, and the rate at which this ratio varied with temperature. The modified GDMs showed existing thermal tolerance could reduce the turnover predicted by standard models under climate change by up to 11%. We further show how the reduction in expected turnover by 2090 will influence where a greater proportion of the current community will persist in a region. Main conclusions: We suggest that standard spatial GDMs and their modified versions represent the extremes of ecological niche perspectives (i.e., realized and potential) and the range of tolerance communities may have when responding to environmental change. GDM projections therefore identify the range of uncertainty associated with a critical model assumption, and as climate change continues, ongoing community monitoring could be used to validate the balance between the two possibilities.

The highly dynamic nature of the marine environment can have a substantial influence on the foraging behaviour and spatial distribution of marine predators, particularly in pelagic marine systems. However, knowledge of the susceptibility of benthic marine predators to environmental variability is limited. This study investigated the influence of local-scale environmental conditions and large-scale climate indices on the spatial distribution and habitat use in the benthic foraging Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus; AUFS). Female AUFS provisioning pups were instrumented with GPS or ARGOS platform terminal transmitter tags during the austral winters of 2001–2019 at Kanowna Island, south-eastern Australia. Individuals were most susceptible to changes in the Southern Oscillation Index that measures the strength of the El Niño Southern Oscillation, with larger foraging ranges, greater distances travelled and more dispersed movement associated with 1-yr lagged La Niña-like conditions. Additionally, the total distance travelled was negatively correlated with the current year sea surface temperature and 1-yr lagged Indian Ocean Dipole, and positively correlated with 1-yr lagged chlorophyll-aconcentration. These results suggest that environmental variation may influence the spatial distribution and availability of prey, even within benthic marine systems.

Substantial variation in foraging strategies can exist within populations, even those typically regarded as generalists. Specializations arise from the consistent exploitation of a narrow behavioral, spatial or dietary niche over time, which may reduce intraspecific competition and influence adaptability to environmental change. However, few studies have investigated whether behavioral consistency confers benefits at the individual and/or population level. While still recovering from commercial sealing overexploitation, Australian fur seals (AUFS; Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) represent the largest marine predator biomass in south‐eastern Australia. During lactation, female AUFS adopt a central‐place foraging strategy and are, thus, vulnerable to changes in prey availability. The present study investigated the population‐level repeatability and individual consistency in foraging behavior of 34 lactating female AUFS at a south‐east Australian breeding colony between 2006 and 2019. Additionally, the influence of individual‐level behavioral consistency on indices of foraging success and efficiency during benthic diving was determined. Low to moderate population‐level repeatability was observed across foraging behaviors, with the greatest repeatability in the mean bearing and modal dive depth. Individual‐level consistency was greatest for the proportion of benthic diving, total distance travelled, and trip duration. Indices of benthic foraging success and efficiency were positively influenced by consistency in the proportion of benthic diving, trip duration and dive rate but not influenced by consistency in bearing to most distal point, dive depth or foraging site fidelity. The results of the present study provide evidence of the benefits of consistency for individuals, which may have flow‐on effects at the population level., Low‐moderate level population‐level repeatability and individual‐level consistency were identified in female Australian fur seal foraging behaviors. Despite this, greater individual consistency in some behaviors was associated with greater foraging success and efficiency of benthic dives. The results of the present study provide evidence of the benefits of consistency for individuals, which may have flow‐on effects at the population level.

Understanding the factors which influence foraging behaviour and success in marine mammals is crucial to predicting how their populations may respond to environmental change. The Australian fur seal (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, AUFS) is a predominantly benthic forager on the shallow continental shelf of Bass Strait, and represents the greatest biomass of marine predators in south-eastern Australia. The south-east Australian region is experiencing rapid oceanic warming, predicted to lead to substantial alterations in prey diversity, distribution and abundance. In the present study, foraging effort and indices of foraging success and efficiency were investigated in 138 adult female AUFS (970 foraging trips) during the winters of 1998–2019. Large scale climate conditions had a strong influence on foraging effort, foraging success and efficiency. Foraging effort and foraging success were also strongly influenced by winter chlorophyll-a concentrations and sea-surface height anomalies in Bass Strait. The results suggest increasing foraging effort and decreasing foraging success and efficiency under anticipated environmental conditions, which may have population-level impacts.

Degradation and loss of natural habitat is the major driver of the current global biodiversity crisis. Most habitat conservation efforts to date have targeted small areas of highly threatened habitat, but emerging debate suggests retaining large intact natural systems may be just as important. We reconcile these perspectives by integrating fine-resolution global data on habitat condition and species assemblage turnover, to identify Earth’s high-value biodiversity habitat. These are areas in better condition than most other locations once supporting a similar assemblage of species, and are found within both intact regions and human dominated landscapes. However, only 18.6 % of this high-value habitat is currently protected globally. Averting permanent biodiversity loss requires clear spatially explicit targets for retaining these unprotected high-value habitats.

Despite the scientific consensus on the extinction crisis and its anthropogenic origin, the quantification of historical trends and of future scenarios of biodiversity and ecosystem services has been limited, due to the lack of inter-model comparisons and harmonized scenarios. Here, we present a multi-model analysis to assess the impacts of land-use and climate change from 1900 to 2050. During the 20th century provisioning services increased, but biodiversity and regulating services decreased. Similar trade-offs are projected for the coming decades, but they may be attenuated in a sustainability scenario. Future biodiversity loss from land-use change is projected to keep up with historical rates or reduce slightly, whereas losses due to climate change are projected to increase greatly. Renewed efforts are needed by governments to meet the 2050 vision of the Convention on Biological Diversity.One Sentence SummaryDevelopment pathways exist that allow for a reduction of the rates of biodiversity loss from land-use change and improvement in regulating services but climate change poses an increasing challenge.

In Australia, a multi-million-dollar industry is based on viewing the Australian fur seal (Arctocephaluspusillusdoriferus), predominantly through boat visits to breeding colonies. Regulation of boat approaches varies by site and no systematic investigations have been performed to inform management guidelines. To investigate possible effects of disturbance, experimental boat approaches were made to a colony at Kanowna Island in northern Bass Strait and seal responses were monitored using instantaneous scan sampling. Colony attendance (individuals remaining ashore) was found to be influenced by approach distance and time of day, but was not affected by environmental variables or season, whereas onshore resting behavior was influenced by approach distance, time of day, ambient temperature and wind direction. Onshore resting behavior decreased following experimental boat approaches to 75 m, but changes in abundance of individuals ashore were not observed at this distance. In contrast, approaches to 25 m elicited a strong response, with a steep decline in the number of individuals ashore. This response was strongest when approaches occurred in the morning, with a decline of approximately 47% of individuals, compared to a decline of 21% during afternoon approaches. With regard to onshore resting behavior, afternoon approaches to 75 m led to minimal response. The remaining three combinations of approach distance and time of day had a similar pattern of reductions in the proportion of individuals engaging in onshore resting behavior. The strongest response was again seen during approaches to 25 m conducted in the morning. These behavior changes suggest that unrestricted boat-based ecotourism at Australian fur seal colonies has the potential to increase energy expenditure and reduce the number of seals ashore. Increasing minimum approach distances to ≥75 m and/or restricting visits to afternoons may minimize these impacts at Kanowna Island during the post-molt and non-breeding seasons. As several studies have demonstrated considerable intra-species variation in seal responses to boat approaches, research at other colonies is needed before these findings can be generalized to the remainder of the Australian fur seal population.

The Sirex woodwasp, Sirex noctilio, is a significant pest of exotic stands of Pinus species in the southern hemisphere, and an emerging threat in north-eastern America. The potential global distribution of S. noctilio was assessed using the process-oriented niche modelling software CLIMEX. Model parameters were inferred from S. noctilio’s known native distribution in Eurasia and northern Africa, its exotic range in Brazil, New Zealand and South Africa, and from ecophysiological laboratory observations of both S. noctilio and its symbiotic wood-decay fungus, Amylostereum areolatum. Model predictions were validated using independent distribution data from Australia, New Zealand, South Africa and the Americas. Damage significance and spatial distribution data of S. noctilio infestations in New Zealand were compared with growth and suitability outputs of the model, to explore if the impact of S. noctilio could be related to climate. However, no correlation between modelled climate suitability and field infestation severity were found. The resulting model indicated that S. noctilio is currently occupying a fraction of its potential climatic niche in the regions it has invaded. Taking into account areas where suitable hosts occur, results suggest that S. noctilio could further extend its range into additional plantations in southern Queensland in Australia and central Brazil, and into native and exotic stands of Pinus throughout north-east America. Stands of Pinus that are isolated at present from current S. noctilio infestations, such as those in California, Central America and Western Australia, may also be at risk if control measures are ineffective in preventing its spread. Differences in parameter selection and risk projections of our model and a previously published CLIMEX model of S. noctilio are discussed.

Similarity or dissimilarity between 2 individuals that have formed a pair to breed can occur in morphology, behaviour and diet. Such patterns influence partners’ cooperation when rearing their offspring, consequently influencing reproductive success. They may confer different benefits, depending on species and contexts. However, the extent to which breeding partners are more similar in morphology, behaviour, and diet is poorly documented. Furthermore, the relationship between behavioural consistency and mate choice is particularly poorly understood. To investigate these issues, Kerguelen shags Phalacrocorax verrucosus, which are monogamous with high mate fidelity across years, were studied. Partners were equipped with GPS and diving behaviour loggers. Feather and blood samples were analysed for stable isotopes (δ13C, a proxy of foraging habitat, and δ15N, a proxy of diet/trophic position). Generalized linear mixed effects models and permutation tests were used to investigate pair similarity in morphology, foraging behaviour, behavioural consistency, overlap in foraging areas, and diets/foraging habitats. Mates were found not to exhibit size-assortative mating, but were more similar in foraging behaviour. They did not show assortative or disassortative mating based on foraging behavioural consistency. Furthermore, they followed more similar bearings and overlapped more in foraging areas. In accordance with this, partners were more similar in δ15N. Given the lack of assortative mating by morphology, the similarity in behaviour could be due to individuals selecting mates with similar foraging abilities, linked with individual quality, and/or subsequently using information gained from their partners’ foraging strategies (e.g. local enhancement). This could help breeding pairs increase their foraging efficiency and reproductive success.

The United Nations (UN) launched the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development to address an ongoing crisis: human pressure leading to unprecedented environmental degradation, climatic change, social inequality, and other negative planet-wide consequences. This crisis stems from a dramatic increase in human appropriation of natural resources to keep pace with rapid population growth, dietary shifts toward higher consumption of animal products, and higher demand for energy (1, 2). There is an increased recognition that Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are linked to one another (3, 4), and priorities such as food production, biodiversity conservation, and climate change mitigation cannot be considered in isolation (5⇓⇓–8). Hence, understanding those dynamics is central to achieving the vision of the UN 2030 Agenda. Infectious zoonotic diseases typically emerge as a result of complex interactions between humans and wild and/or domestic animals. Image credit: Pixabay/sasint. But environmental change also has direct human health outcomes via infectious disease emergence, and this link is not customarily integrated into planning for sustainable development. Currently, 65 countries are engaged in the Global Health Security Agenda (GHSA) and are finalizing a strategic plan for the next five years (the GHSA 2024 Roadmap) to better prevent, detect, and respond to infectious disease outbreaks in alignment with SDGs 2 and 3 on food security and human health. Without an integrated approach to mitigating the disease emergence consequences of environmental change, countries’ abilities to achieve SDGs and GHSA targets will be compromised. Emerging infectious diseases (EIDs) such as Ebola, influenza, SARS, MERS, and, most recently, coronavirus (2019-nCoV) cause large-scale mortality and morbidity, disrupt trade and travel networks, and stimulate civil unrest (9). When local emergence leads to regional outbreaks or global pandemics, the economic impacts can be devastating: The SARS outbreak in 2003, the H1N1 pandemic in 2009, and … [↵][1]1To whom correspondence may be addressed. Email: moreno.dimarco{at}uniroma1.it. [1]: #xref-corresp-1-1

Increased efforts are required to prevent further losses to terrestrial biodiversity and the ecosystem services that it provides1,2. Ambitious targets have been proposed, such as reversing the declining trends in biodiversity3; however, just feeding the growing human population will make this a challenge4. Here we use an ensemble of land-use and biodiversity models to assess whether—and how—humanity can reverse the declines in terrestrial biodiversity caused by habitat conversion, which is a major threat to biodiversity5. We show that immediate efforts, consistent with the broader sustainability agenda but of unprecedented ambition and coordination, could enable the provision of food for the growing human population while reversing the global terrestrial biodiversity trends caused by habitat conversion. If we decide to increase the extent of land under conservation management, restore degraded land and generalize landscape-level conservation planning, biodiversity trends from habitat conversion could become positive by the mid-twenty-first century on average across models (confidence interval, 2042–2061), but this was not the case for all models. Food prices could increase and, on average across models, almost half (confidence interval, 34–50%) of the future biodiversity losses could not be avoided. However, additionally tackling the drivers of land-use change could avoid conflict with affordable food provision and reduces the environmental effects of the food-provision system. Through further sustainable intensification and trade, reduced food waste and more plant-based human diets, more than two thirds of future biodiversity losses are avoided and the biodiversity trends from habitat conversion are reversed by 2050 for almost all of the models. Although limiting further loss will remain challenging in several biodiversity-rich regions, and other threats—such as climate change—must be addressed to truly reverse the declines in biodiversity, our results show that ambitious conservation efforts and food system transformation are central to an effective post-2020 biodiversity strategy. To promote the recovery of the currently declining global trends in terrestrial biodiversity, increases in both the extent of land under conservation management and the sustainability of the global food system from farm to fork are required.

An important element of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi Target 15 – i.e. to enhance “ecosystem resilience … through conservation and restoration” – remains largely unaddressed by existing indicators. We here develop an indicator addressing just one of many possible dimensions of ecosystem resilience, by focusing on the capacity of ecosystems to retain biological diversity in the face of ongoing, and uncertain, climate change. The Bioclimatic Ecosystem Resilience Index (BERI) assesses the extent to which a given spatial configuration of natural habitat will promote or hinder climate-induced shifts in biological distributions. The approach uses existing global modelling of spatial turnover in species composition within three broad biological groups (plants, invertebrates and vertebrates) to scale projected changes in composition under a plausible range of climate scenarios. These projections serve as filters through which to analyse the configuration of habitat observed at a given point in time (e.g. for a particular year) – represented as a grid in which cells are scored in terms of habitat condition. BERI is then calculated, for each cell in this grid, as a function of the connectedness of that cell to areas of natural habitat in the surrounding landscape which are projected to support a similar composition of species under climate change to that currently associated with the focal cell. All analyses are performed at 30-arcsecond grid resolution (approximately 1km cells at the equator). Results can then be aggregated to report on status and trends for any desired set of reporting units – e.g. ecoregions, countries, or ecosystem types. We present example outputs for the Moist Tropical Forest Biome, based on a habitat-condition time series derived from the Global Forest Change dataset. We also describe how BERI is now being extended to cover all biomes (forest and non-forest) across the entire terrestrial surface of the planet.

Summary Freshwater ecosystems appear to be sensitive to even minor climatic shifts, and the dendritic nature of rivers as well as patchy distribution of habitats within the terrestrial landscape could limit the ability of species to track suitable climate conditions. Although the importance of dispersal is recognised in theory, there is great uncertainty when quantifying the capacity of species to shift their distributions in response to climate change. The influence of dispersal capacity on species’ vulnerability to climate change was assessed, using the modelled projections of 527 freshwater species in New South Wales (NSW), Australia. Species’ future ranges were calculated by iteratively identifying colonisation of accessible habitats and loss of suitable habitats within network models. The accessibility of new habitats was based on a given dispersal mode (aquatic, semi-terrestrial and aerial). The relative impact of dispersal parameters on projected range were evaluated alongside other known sources of uncertainty (climate and emissions scenarios, modelling algorithm and biological group), analysed collectively in a generalised additive mixed-model, and spatially to locate regions of NSW where projections are associated with the most uncertainty. Our simulations (1.4 million scenario combinations) suggest at least a third of species will lose more than half their range under climate change. Nevertheless, we emphasise the broad uncertainty that any average encapsulates. Dispersal capacity only had a minor impact on projected range shifts relative to other modelling assumptions but the network-pathways and maps of uncertainty have value for conservation planning at large scales. Projected range losses initially decreased rapidly as dispersal rates increased but the benefits are reduced above 2–3 km year−1. Taxa restricted to dispersal within the stream network (aquatic) were more vulnerable to climate change than taxa with semi-terrestrial or aerial dispersal and maps of variation due to dispersal mode and rate indicate where habitat connectivity would be most beneficial. This study demonstrates the breadth of uncertainties that challenge plans for improving ecosystem adaptation under climate change and highlights where in the landscape those differences were consistent. We emphasise the need for freshwater conservation studies to be ecologically representative, to focus on broad-scale connectivity for taxa that can move between catchments, and an accessible network of refugia for taxa with more limited dispersal.

Dive characteristics and dive shape are often used to infer foraging success in pinnipeds. However, these inferences have not been directly validated in the field with video, and it remains unclear if this method can be applied to benthic foraging animals. This study assessed the ability of dive characteristics from time-depth recorders (TDR) to predict attempted prey capture events (APC) that were directly observed on animal-borne video in Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus, n=11). The most parsimonious model predicting the probability of a dive with ≥1 APC on video included only descent rate as a predictor variable. The majority (94%) of the 389 total APC were successful, and the majority of the dives (68%) contained at least one successful APC. The best model predicting these successful dives included descent rate as a predictor. Comparisons of the TDR model predictions to video yielded a maximum accuracy of 77.5% in classifying dives as either APC or non-APC or 77.1% in classifying dives as successful verses unsuccessful. Foraging intensity, measured as either total APC per dive or total successful APC per dive, was best predicted by bottom duration and ascent rate. The accuracy in predicting total APC per dive varied based on the number of APC per dive with maximum accuracy occurring at 1 APC for both total (54%) and only successful APC (52%). Results from this study linking verified foraging dives to dive characteristics potentially opens the door to decades of historical TDR datasets across several otariid species., Summary: We assessed the ability of dive characteristics in Australian fur seals to predict foraging behavior and success that were directly observed on video. TDR data was able to reliably predict presence of prey as well as total successful prey captured per dive.

Empirical testing of optimal foraging models on diving air-breathing animals is limited due to difficulties in quantifying the prey field through direct observations. Here we used accelerometers to detect rapid head movements during prey encounter events (PEE) of free-ranging benthic-divers, Australian fur seals, Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus. PEE signals from accelerometer data were validated by simultaneous video data. We then used PEEs as a measure of patch quality to test several optimal foraging model predictions. Seals had longer bottom durations in unfruitful dives (no PEE) than those with some foraging success (PEE ≥ 1). However, when examined in greater detail, seals had longer bottom durations in dives with more PEEs, but shorter bottom durations in bouts (sequences of dives) with more PEEs. Our results suggest that seals were generally maximizing bottom durations in all foraging dives, characteristic of benthic divers. However, successful foraging dives might be more energetically costly (e.g. digestive costs), thus resulting in shorter bottom durations at the larger scale of bouts. Our study provides a case study of how the foraging behaviour of a central place forager foraging in a fairly homogeneous environment, with relatively high travel costs, may deviate from current foraging models under different situations. Future foraging models should aim to integrate other aspects (e.g. diet) of the foraging process for more accurate predictions.

An important element of the Convention on Biological Diversity’s Aichi Target 15 – i.e. to enhance “ecosystem resilience … through conservation and restoration” – remains largely unaddressed by existing indicators. We here develop an indicator addressing just one of many possible dimensions of ecosystem resilience, by focusing on the capacity of ecosystems to retain biological diversity in the face of ongoing, and uncertain, climate change. The Bioclimatic Ecosystem Resilience Index (BERI) assesses the extent to which a given spatial configuration of natural habitat will promote or hinder climate-induced shifts in biological distributions. The approach uses existing global modelling of spatial turnover in species composition within three broad biological groups (plants, invertebrates and vertebrates) to scale projected changes in composition under a plausible range of climate scenarios. These projections serve as filters through which to analyse the configuration of habitat observed at a given point in time (e.g. for a particular year) – represented as a grid in which cells are scored in terms of habitat condition. BERI is then calculated, for each cell in this grid, as a function of the connectedness of that cell to areas of natural habitat in the surrounding landscape which are projected to support a similar composition of species under climate change to that currently associated with the focal cell. All analyses are performed at 30-arcsecond grid resolution (approximately 1 km cells at the equator). Results can then be aggregated to report on status and trends for any desired set of reporting units – e.g. ecoregions, countries, or ecosystem types. We present example outputs for the Moist Tropical Forest Biome, based on a habitat-condition time series derived from the Global Forest Change dataset. We also describe how BERI is now being extended to cover all biomes (forest and non-forest) across the entire terrestrial surface of the planet.

Reducing the rate of global biodiversity loss is a major challenge facing humanity1, as the consequences of biological annihilation would be irreversible for humankind2–4. Although the ongoing degradation of ecosystems5,6 and the extinction of species that comprise them7,8 are now well-documented, little is known about the role that remaining wilderness areas have in mitigating the global biodiversity crisis. Here we model the persistence probability of biodiversity, combining habitat condition with spatial variation in species composition, to show that retaining these remaining wilderness areas is essential for the international conservation agenda. Wilderness areas act as a buffer against species loss, as the extinction risk for species within wilderness communities is—on average—less than half that of species in non-wilderness communities. Although all wilderness areas have an intrinsic conservation value9,10, we identify the areas on every continent that make the highest relative contribution to the persistence of biodiversity. Alarmingly, these areas—in which habitat loss would have a more-marked effect on biodiversity—are poorly protected. Given globally high rates of wilderness loss10, these areas urgently require targeted protection to ensure the long-term persistence of biodiversity, alongside efforts to protect and restore more-degraded environments. Wilderness areas with minimal levels of human disturbance promote the persistence of biodiversity by acting as buffers against species loss, and therefore represent key targets for environmental protection.

AimGlobal indicators of change in the state of terrestrial biodiversity are often derived by intersecting observed or projected changes in the distribution of habitat transformation, or of protected areas, with underlying patterns in the distribution of biodiversity. However the two main sources of data used to account for biodiversity patterns in such assessments – i.e. ecoregional boundaries, and vertebrate species ranges – are typically delineated at a much coarser resolution than the spatial grain of key ecological processes shaping both land-use and biological distributions at landscape scale. Species distribution modelling provides one widely used means of refining the resolution of mapped species distributions, but is limited to a subset of species which is biased both taxonomically and geographically, with some regions of the world lacking adequate data to generate reliable models even for better-known biological groups.InnovationMacroecological modelling of collective properties of biodiversity (e.g. alpha and beta diversity) as a correlative function of environmental predictors offers an alternative, yet highly complementary, approach to refining the spatial resolution with which patterns in the distribution of biodiversity can be mapped across our planet. Here we introduce a new capability – BILBI (the Biogeographic Infrastructure for Large-scaled Biodiversity Indicators) – which has implemented this approach by integrating advances in macroecological modelling, biodiversity informatics, remote sensing and high-performance computing to assess spatial-temporal change in biodiversity at ~1km grid resolution across the entire terrestrial surface of the planet. The initial implementation of this infrastructure focuses on modelling beta-diversity patterns using a novel extension of generalised dissimilarity modelling (GDM) designed to extract maximum value from sparsely and unevenly distributed occurrence records for over 400,000 species of plants, invertebrates and vertebrates.Main conclusionsModels generated by BILBI greatly refine the mapping of beta-diversity patterns relative to more traditional biodiversity surrogates such as ecoregions. This capability is already proving of considerable value in informing global biodiversity assessment through: 1) generation of indicators of past-to-present change in biodiversity based on observed changes in habitat condition and protected-area coverage; and 2) projection of potential future change in biodiversity as a consequence of alternative scenarios of global change in drivers and policy options.

Phenotypic variation and individual experience can create behavioural and/or dietary variation within a population. This may reduce intra-specific competition, creating a buffer to environmental change. This study examined how intrinsic variation affects foraging behaviour of Australian fur seals. Foraging movements of 29 female Australian fur seals were recorded using FastLoc GPS and dive behaviour recorders. For each individual, body mass, flipper length and axis length were recorded, a tooth was sampled to determine age, and milk was collected for diet analysis. Clustering of fatty acid dietary analysis revealed 5 distinct groups in the population. Behaviour was described using 19 indices, which were then reduced to 7 principal components (>80% of the behavioural variation). Bayesian mixed effect models were developed to describe the relationship between these components and intrinsic variation. No association was found between diet and age or body shape; however, age had a negative relationship with component 1 (27% of variation). Older females spent less time at-sea and foraged nearer to the colony. Age had an effect on component 5 (7% of variation), which represented haul-outs and dive depth; older females made fewer visits to haul-out sites and dived deeper to the benthos. This suggests that as animals age they are able to utilise prior knowledge to exploit nearby foraging sites that younger animals are either unaware of, or have yet to gain the experience required to efficiently utilise. Mass had a negative effect on components representing the directedness of a foraging trip, suggesting heavier individuals were more likely to travel directly to a foraging site.

Aim Agricultural intensification and urbanization are important drivers of biodiversity change in Europe. Different aspects of bee community diversity vary in their sensitivity to these pressures, as well as independently influencing ecosystem service provision (pollination). To obtain a more comprehensive understanding of human impacts on bee diversity across Europe, we assess multiple, complementary indices of diversity. Location One Thousand four hundred and forty six sites across Europe. Methods We collated data on bee occurrence and abundance from the published literature and supplemented them with the PREDICTS database. Using Rao's Quadratic Entropy, we assessed how species, functional and phylogenetic diversity of 1,446 bee communities respond to land‐use characteristics including land‐use class, cropland intensity, human population density and distance to roads. We combined these models with statistically downscaled estimates of land use in 2005 to estimate and map—at a scale of approximately 1 km2—the losses in diversity relative to semi‐natural/natural baseline (the predicted diversity of an uninhabited grid square, consisting only of semi‐natural/natural vegetation). Results We show that—relative to the predicted local diversity in uninhabited semi‐natural/natural habitat—half of all EU27 countries have lost over 10% of their average local species diversity and two‐thirds of countries have lost over 5% of their average local functional and phylogenetic diversity. All diversity measures were generally lower in pasture and higher‐intensity cropland than in semi‐natural/natural vegetation, but facets of diversity showed less consistent responses to human population density. These differences have led to marked spatial mismatches in losses: losses in phylogenetic diversity were in some areas almost 20 percentage points (pp.) more severe than losses in species diversity, but in other areas losses were almost 40 pp. less severe. Main conclusions These results highlight the importance of exploring multiple measures of diversity when prioritizing and evaluating conservation actions, as species‐diverse assemblages may be phylogenetically and functionally impoverished, potentially threatening pollination service provision.

Nest predation is considered to be one of the most significant biotic threats to marine turtle populations globally. The introduction of feral predators to nesting beaches has dramatically increased nest predation, reaching near total egg loss in some regions. We monitored a 48 km stretch of beach along western Cape York Peninsula, Australia, from June – November 2018. We recorded a total of 360 nests comprising 117 flatback and 243 olive ridley nests. We installed plastic meshing (90 cm × 100 cm) on 110 olive ridley nests (45.2% of total olive ridley clutches laid) within the study area. We classified all nest predation attempts into three categories: complete, partial, or failed predation events. In total, 109 (30.2%) of all marine turtle nests were depredated by a variety of predators, including feral pigs, dingoes, goannas, and humans. The addition of plastic meshing reduced the likelihood of dingoes gaining access to eggs, but not goannas or feral pigs. Further, we found no difference in the proportion of hatchling emergence between meshed and un-meshed nests. Additionally, while hatchling emergence was reduced in nests that had been partially depredated, these nests still produced live hatchlings and contributed to recruitment. The success of particular predator control methods is often predator, and/or regionally, specific. Our findings highlight a thorough understanding of predator guilds and their relative impacts is required to deploy targeted and predator-specific strategies to maximize conservation results. We present a strong case for data-driven adaptive management that has implications for designing optimal predator management plans.

Condition indices correlating body lipid content with mass and morphometric measurements have been developed for a variety of taxa. However, for many large species, the capture and handling of enough animals to obtain representative population estimates is not logistically feasible. The relatively low cost and reduced disturbance effects of UAVs make them ideal for the rapid acquisition of high volume data for monitoring large species. This study examined the imagery collected from two different UAVs, flown at 25 m altitude, and the subsequent georeferenced orthomosaics as a method for measuring length and axillary girth of Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) to derive an index of body condition. Up to 26% of individuals were orientated correctly (prostrate/sternal recumbent) to allow for body measurements. The UAV-obtained images over-estimated axillary girth diameter due to postural sag on the lateral sides of the thorax while the animals are lying flat in the sternal recumbent position on granite rocks. However, the relationship between axillary girth and standard length was similarly positive for the remotely- and physically-obtained measurements. This indicates that residual values from the remotely-obtained measurements can be used as a relative index of body condition.

Crossing “safe” limits for biodiversity loss The planetary boundaries framework attempts to set limits for biodiversity loss within which ecological function is relatively unaffected. Newbold et al. present a quantitative global analysis of the extent to which the proposed planetary boundary has been crossed (see the Perspective by Oliver). Using over 2 million records for nearly 40,000 terrestrial species, they modeled the response of biodiversity to land use and related pressures and then estimated, at a spatial resolution of ∼1 km 2 , the extent and spatial patterns of changes in local biodiversity. Across 65% of the terrestrial surface, land use and related pressures have caused biotic intactness to decline beyond 10%, the proposed “safe” planetary boundary. Changes have been most pronounced in grassland biomes and biodiversity hotspots. Science , this issue p. 288 ; see also p. 220

Protected areas are widely considered essential for biodiversity conservation. However, few global studies have demonstrated that protection benefits a broad range of species. Here, using a new global biodiversity database with unprecedented geographic and taxonomic coverage, we compare four biodiversity measures at sites sampled in multiple land uses inside and outside protected areas. Globally, species richness is 10.6% higher and abundance 14.5% higher in samples taken inside protected areas compared with samples taken outside, but neither rarefaction-based richness nor endemicity differ significantly. Importantly, we show that the positive effects of protection are mostly attributable to differences in land use between protected and unprotected sites. Nonetheless, even within some human-dominated land uses, species richness and abundance are higher in protected sites. Our results reinforce the global importance of protected areas but suggest that protection does not consistently benefit species with small ranges or increase the variety of ecological niches., Protected areas are thought essential for biodiversity conservation, but few studies confirm that protection benefits species. Here, Gray and Hill et al. analyse a global, taxonomically broad database to show that local species richness and abundance are higher inside protected areas than outside.

Land‐use change is one of the biggest threats to biodiversity globally. The effects of land use on biodiversity manifest primarily at local scales which are not captured by the coarse spatial grain of current global land‐use mapping. Assessments of land‐use impacts on biodiversity across large spatial extents require data at a similar spatial grain to the ecological processes they are assessing. Here, we develop a method for statistically downscaling mapped land‐use data that combines generalized additive modeling and constrained optimization. This method was applied to the 0.5° Land‐use Harmonization data for the year 2005 to produce global 30″ (approx. 1 km2) estimates of five land‐use classes: primary habitat, secondary habitat, cropland, pasture, and urban. The original dataset was partitioned into 61 bio‐realms (unique combinations of biome and biogeographical realm) and downscaled using relationships with fine‐grained climate, land cover, landform, and anthropogenic influence layers. The downscaled land‐use data were validated using the PREDICTS database and the geoWiki global cropland dataset. Application of the new method to all 61 bio‐realms produced global fine‐grained layers from the 2005 time step of the Land‐use Harmonization dataset. Coarse‐scaled proportions of land use estimated from these data compared well with those estimated in the original datasets (mean R 2: 0.68 ± 0.19). Validation with the PREDICTS database showed the new downscaled land‐use layers improved discrimination of all five classes at PREDICTS sites (P

Estimating the degree of individual specialisation is likely to be sensitive to the methods used, as they record individuals’ resource use over different time-periods. We combined animal-borne video cameras, GPS/TDR loggers and stable isotope values of plasma, red cells and sub-sampled whiskers to investigate individual foraging specialisation in female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) over various timescales. Combining these methods enabled us to (1) provide quantitative information on individuals’ diet, allowing the identification of prey, (2) infer the temporal consistency of individual specialisation, and (3) assess how different methods and timescales affect our estimation of the degree of specialisation. Short-term inter-individual variation in diet was observed in the video data (mean pairwise overlap = 0.60), with the sampled population being composed of both generalist and specialist individuals (nested network). However, the brevity of the temporal window is likely to artificially increase the level of specialisation by not recording the entire diet of seals. Indeed, the correlation in isotopic values was tighter between the red cells and whiskers (mid- to long-term foraging ecology) than between plasma and red cells (short- to mid-term) (R 2 = 0.93–0.73 vs. 0.55–0.41). δ13C and δ15N values of whiskers confirmed the temporal consistency of individual specialisation. Variation in isotopic niche was consistent across seasons and years, indicating long-term habitat (WIC/TNW = 0.28) and dietary (WIC/TNW = 0.39) specialisation. The results also highlight time-averaging issues (under-estimation of the degree of specialisation) when calculating individual specialisation indices over long time-periods, so that no single timescale may provide a complete and accurate picture, emphasising the benefits of using complementary methods.

Recently, there has been a surge in interest in how beta-diversity is defined and applied (e.g., [1]). Socolar et al. [2] have rightly recognised the fundamental importance of considering beta-diversity for conserving biodiversity, and clearly explain the various ways in which beta-diversity may respond to contrasting ecological and anthropogenic forces. However, there are many ways in which beta-diversity already underpins much of modern conservation science and practice, although differences in terminology means that this may not always be explicit.

Group foraging provides predators with advantages in over-powering prey larger than themselves or in aggregating small prey for efficient exploitation. For group-living predatory species, cooperative hunting strategies provide inclusive fitness benefits. However, for colonial-breeding predators, the benefit pay-offs of group foraging are less clear due to the potential for intra-specific competition. We used animal-borne cameras to determine the prey types, hunting strategies, and success of little penguins (Eudyptula minor), a small, colonial breeding air-breathing marine predator that has recently been shown to display extensive at-sea foraging associations with conspecifics. Regardless of prey type, little penguins had a higher probability of associating with conspecifics when hunting prey that were aggregated than when prey were solitary. In addition, success was greater when individuals hunted schooling rather than solitary prey. Surprisingly, however, success on schooling prey was similar or greater when individuals hunted on their own than when with conspecifics. These findings suggest individuals may be trading-off the energetic gains of solitary hunting for an increased probability of detecting prey within a spatially and temporally variable prey field by associating with conspecifics.

International audience; This study investigated prey captures in free-ranging adult female Australian fur seals (Arctocephalus pusillus doriferus) using head-mounted 3-axis accelerometers and animal-borne video cameras. Acceleration data was used to identify individual attempted prey captures (APC), and video data were used to independently verify APC and prey types. Results demonstrated that head-mounted accelerometers could detect individual APC but were unable to distinguish among prey types (fish, cephalopod, stingray) or between successful captures and unsuccessful capture attempts. Mean detection rate (true positive rate) on individual animals in the testing subset ranged from 67-100%, and mean detection on the testing subset averaged across 4 animals ranged from 82-97%. Mean False positive (FP) rate ranged from 15-67% individually in the testing subset, and 26-59% averaged across 4 animals. Surge and sway had significantly greater detection rates, but also conversely greater FP rates compared to heave. Video data also indicated that some head movements recorded by the accelerometers were unrelated to APC and that a peak in acceleration variance did not always equate to an individual prey item. The results of the present study indicate that head-mounted accelerometers provide a complementary tool for investigating foraging behaviour in pinnipeds, but that detection and FP correction factors need to be applied for reliable field application.