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The paper estimates a Phillips curve type relationship for the Bulgarian economy in a setup that takes into account the simultaneous interaction between inflation, output and unemployment. Using a state space model estimated with Bayesian methods on quarterly data from 1999 to 2015, we assess the cyclical developments in unemployment and output, and identify the main drivers of inflation over the period. Compared to other methods such as univariate filtering or production function approaches, our methodology enables the combination of information from different time series and admits a structural interpretation of the results in terms of the underlying shocks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines a key dimension of democratic control, namely parliamentary control of military missions and presents the findings of an in-depth case study on the EU's maritime mission Atalanta that was launched to combat piracy off the coast of Somalia. The case study finds that none of the parliaments we studied was actively involved in the decision-making process before the main decisions whether and in what form to launch an EU-led maritime mission had been made. Moreover, the competences and activities of national parliaments vary widely resulting in a patchwork of parliamentary control at the national level. Whereas some parliaments are very well informed and closely monitor government policy, others are, by and large, left in the dark. Furthermore, although the European Parliament (EP) has had no influence on the initial decision to launch an EU military mission, once Atalanta had begun, it scrutinized the mission through questions, debates, hearings and field trips. In doing so, it benefitted from its access to top militaries and key decisionmakers who frequently visited the EP and its committees. Finally, transnational parliamentary assemblies as well as more informal networks provide opportunities to gain information about military missions and about other countries' preferences, concerns etc. Party groups are an important medium for establishing such informal contacts across national boundaries. A closer look reveals, however, that these opportunities are used to very different degrees within different party groups, by different national delegations and by individual MPs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we analyze the Turkish perceptions of the European Union's Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) in an attempt to understand the EU's evolving character as a 'federal state' or an 'intergovernmental organization' or a 'cosmopolitan union'. The analysis of the Turkish perceptions of the EU's foreign policy is conducted through an investigation of the debates in the Turkish Parliament, the legislature in Turkish politics, from 2000 to 2010. We identified four different camps in Turkish politics, the right-wing nationalists, Islamists, liberals and the left-wing nationalists who are all politically represented in the Turkish Parliament in varying degrees. The proceedings in the Turkish Parliament enable us to analyze the different political camps' positions on the European foreign policy thoroughly. The different views of these groups vis-à-vis the EU's foreign policy is critical in mapping the Turkish perceptions, and in order to do so, we focused on these different deliberations in the Parliament. The contested development of the EU's foreign and security policy could also be reflected in the external assessments of this policy so the Turkish Parliamentarians' perceptions matter. Consequently, we expect to understand the Turkish perceptions of the EU in foreign and security policy - its CFSP and CESDP - as an outside assessment of the EU's direction towards any of the RECON models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the anchoring, i.e. stability, of long-term inflation expectations, as well as further moments of the distribution, as perceived by the professional forecasters in the euro area and the US. Evaluation is initially performed on the basis of sensitivity to innovations to observed inflation, short- and medium-term individual forecast news. News are defined in a subjective sense and derived from revisions to shorter-term fixed-target forecasts. The assessment tests for presence of non-linear effects, including regime changes during disinflation in the US in the 90s and the recent financial crisis. Secondly, anchoring is evaluated in terms of level evolution, based on structural non-linear and non-gaussian learning models, used to uncover the presence of common trend, underlying the long-term dynamics of inflation, individual expectations and uncertainty. The findings suggest relatively well-anchored expectations. As regards sensitivity, point expectations in the euro area are perfectly anchored. Although there is presence of non-stationary common process underlying individual expectations and inflation realisations, most forecasters project the exante long-term considerably below trend inflation, a phenomenon documented and named here collective stabilisation bias. Long-term uncertainty proved unrelated to both level and changes in the inflation process. In the US there is higher sensitivity to the shorter term, which has diminished significantly after 1999, possibly contributing to stationarity in the underlying inflationary process and absence of collective bias. Both currency areas demonstrate remarkable resilience to shocks during the financial markets crisis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper aims at putting forward the key elements of a constitutional theory of European law on the basis of D. Neil MacCormick's theory of European constitutional pluralism. Firstly, I consider how the institutional theory of law fleshed out by MacCormick creates the theoretical space within which it is be possible to make sense of legal and political phenomena below, above and beyond the nation-state, and particularly, of the EU. Secondly, I ponder on how this affects standard constitutional theories of Community law. Because standard theoretical re-constructions of Community law are premised on the close relationship between law and nation-state, they turn to be incapable of providing a satisfactory and simultaneous answer to three fundamental questions, namely the genesis of EU law, the primacy of EU law and the endurance and growth of EU law. Thirdly, I consider the many achievements of MacCormick's European constitutional pluralism, in particular, the thesis that Community law can be approached from at least two differentiated, but equally authoritative, standpoints (the differentiated but equal standpoints thesis) and that the stability of the European legal order is rooted on non-legal bases that reveal the transformation of sovereignty in contemporary Europe (the stability beyond sovereignty thesis). But I also consider the turn that the Scottish philosopher made towards a moderate pluralism under international, a shift that is decisive in order to understand the problématique of Community law and the questions that MacCormick was struggling to solve. Fourthly, I sketch the theory of constitutional synthesis, a constitutional theory of European integration which aims to apply the key insights of MacCormick's European constitutional pluralism to solving the problems which were left open by the theory of the Edinburgh professor. It emphasises the singularity of the European path towards a democratic constitution, the theory of constitutional synthesis combines sensitivity towards the fundamental pluralistic traits of Union law with a commitment towards the idea of constitutional law as a monistic means of social integration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Corrective justice has been one of the most common arguments for justifying the aim and function of non-contractual liability for breaches of EU law. According to this approach, that liability is a mechanism to recompose the state of the art of an order composed of rights, liberties and duties, after some of its rules have been infringed. This paper examines the premises of that reasoning proving that the lack of clarity on how these premises are settled makes corrective justice explanation difficult to maintain. Instead, it shows that distributive justice criteria will be considered as an essential element of state liability in the EU sphere. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper considers the impact of the developments of the last 20 years on the nature of social models in the EU as categorized by the traditional Anglo-Saxon, Continental, Nordic and Southern regimes. It looks in particular at the impact of enlargement, globalisation and the pressures within the EU for harmonisation. In order to consider whether the addition of the new member states constitutes a further separate model it looks at the case of healthcare in Poland, the Czech Republic and Estonia. The conclusion is that neat categorisation is becoming increasingly difficult as countries adopt characteristics of other regimes and develop different parts of the social welfare system in different ways. While there is some element of increasing similarity, distinct regimes continue and it would not be realistic to talk about a single European social model in further research on the implications for democracy in the framework of the RECON project. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Our aim in this paper is to explore three related trends which have emerged in recent years that are contributing to important changes in the way both social welfare and democratic decision making over its form and content interact. These trends are: growing inequality, an increasing devolution of powers to local authorities and institutions, and a rise in voluntary provision and contributions. These trends have important consequences for social welfare, which is essentially redistributive. On the one hand, increasing localisation can permit a much better focus on the needs of local communities and improve incentives and efficiency, while on the other it can facilitate increasing polarisation. The match between decision making and democratic control can alter either positively or negatively, depending on the context. The rise of voluntarism may be a reinforcing or offsetting factor. These trends appear strongly in North America. This paper explores them using the examples of Workfare, Business Improvement Districts and Education. In particular we consider the consequences of increasing inequality, localisation, and voluntarism for European countries and the evolution of democratic relationships in the European Union. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The collaborative economy is a relatively new economic system approach based on peer-to-peer transactions. It includes the shared creation, production and consumption of goods and services accessible for all through online platforms and smartphone applications. It is a burgeoning business model that is experiencing increased interest in all European countries. The collaborative economy boomed simultaneously with the economic crisis and the rise of smartphone applications. The crisis lead to drastic social and economic changes such as job losses and rising unemployment among young people with the need for alternative sources of income, and the development of smartphone applications became an accessible way to make peer-to-peer transactions. Because of its similarities with freelance activities, the system offers flexibility and in-dependence and is chosen by people who wish to exit the traditional corporate world to have more flexible working hours, to have additional income, or who wish to start an independent activity. Thus, the collaborative economy might find a particular interest among women. With the growth of female participation in the labour market in Europe over the past two decades, finding appropriate work-life balance for women has emerged as a challenge. Women still experience issues in the workplace such as stereotypes or sexism, as well as a pay differential. These obstacles in the standard economy have led many women to be attracted to the freedom of having their own business. Even though women may still face obstacles when becoming an entrepreneur, the collaborative economy, with relatively lower administrative burdens, easier access, and especially its freedom, gives women a greater opportunity to easily create their own business. This reality is especially attractive in Poland. Statistics show that Poland already has an above-average number of women who are interested in self-employment, a fact that implies great potential for the development of the participation of women in the collaborative economy. Given the situation of formal female employment in Poland, which is quite low by European standards, this paper assesses the opportunities offered by the collaborative economy in increasing the female labour participation rate amongst Polish women. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we document the appearance of the very first laws, as well as their evolution, in the area of employment protection in France, the UK, Greece, Italy, Spain, and Portugal. By doing so, we reconstruct the series of legal data on employment protection legislation up to the points when information on these provisions becomes systematically available in other studies or data collections. These first laws are compared and contrasted with current regulations. Developments in the employment protection legislation are also put into a broader picture of worker protection issues, particularly articulating them with the developments on unemployment benefit schemes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper describes initial efforts on creating a system for the automatic assessment of Swedish second language (L2) learner essays from two points of view: holistic evaluation of the reached level according to the Common European Framework of Reference (CEFR), and the lexical analysis of texts for receptive and productive vocabulary per CEFR level. We describe the data and resources that our experiments were based on, provide a short introduction to the algorithm for essay classification and experiment results, present the user interface we developed for testing new essays, and outline future work. [For the complete volume of short papers, see ED572005.]

This research is motivated by the emergence of virtual technologies and their potential as engaging pedagogical tools for facilitating comprehension, interactions and collaborations for learning; and in particular as applied to learning second languages (L2). This paper provides a descriptive analysis of a case study that examines affective learning outcomes. We present an extension of an Affective Learning Model (ALM) in light of gaming in a 3D Virtual Learning Environment (VLE) in support of an L2 course. We identify affordances while applying an example of a serious game within the selected VLE. The findings of this case investigation give evidence that the gaming activities supported affective learning outcomes. This finding aligns with prior research of the ALM. Our research is based on a set of data collected during a case study as part of Euroversity, a three-year European Commission Project (2011-2014). [For the complete volume of short papers, see ED572005.]

The iKudu project is a north-south collaboration between five universities in South Africa and five in Europe. As an EU-funded project, the overall aim is to capacity build around internationalisation at home through Collaborative Online International Learning (COIL). Originally presented at IVEC2020, this paper explores how iKudu navigates and utilises concepts of equality, equity through decolonisation, and Africanisation. Drawing from experiences of the first year of operation, this paper presents how the iKudu project was designed with equality in mind in order to ensure that as many students can engage in internationalisation activities, but notes how the realities of decolonisation introduce challenging contradictions for the consortium to navigate, particularly around the use of the English language in a global context. This paper also presents some of the underlying working philosophies from the perspective of the iKudu leadership to show just how COIL can be effective in contributing to equality within internationalisation of Higher Education (HE). [For the complete volume, "Virtual Exchange: Towards Digital Equity in Internationalisation," see ED614868.]

The article offers information on the promotion of integration for migrant domestic workers in Europe. Among the topics discussed are gender, employment and migration, growth of domestic work and women migrants' participation, and migrant domestic worker profiles. Information regarding the country's labour market integration, job instability, underemployment, substandard working conditions is presented.

This paper examines bank globalization along two dimensions--bank nationality and bank reach--using data on cash management services provided to foreign affiliates of large multinational corporations. The authors use a two-stage nested multinomial logit model with a data set including over 2,000 foreign affiliates of multinational corporations operating in 20 European nations. Results indicate that these firms frequently use host nation banks for cash management services, and that bank reach may be strongly influenced by this choice of bank nationality. The authors' results suggest limits to the degree of future bank globalization. This working paper can be found at the United States Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers. You can access it by going to http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/.

This paper examines international coordination of macroeconomic policies. Two building blocks for an analysis of international policy coordination are discussed: (1) a survey of models of policy coordination, and (2) an account of experience with policy coordination among the Group of Seven countries and within Europe since the breakdown of the Bretton Woods System. These building blocks are used to investigate the correspondence between the models and experience and attempt to depict lessons for both the modelers and the practitioners. The analysis found that the correspondence is close enough that the models help in analyzing several instances of actual policy coordination. Lessons for modelers and policymakers are discussed in detail. This working paper can be found at the United States Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers. You can access it by going to http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/.

This paper examines regional influences on United States monetary policy and some implications for Europe. All of the Federal Reserve's policymakers have some regional identity. For example, either their positions clearly carry some regional affiliation or their region of origin is a factor that must be considered in the selection process. The authors argue that this research is pertinent for the Federal Reserve and that it may also be relevant for Europe's fledgling central bank in Frankfurt. Critics have declared that policymakers of the European Central Bank have an incentive to base policy on national developments and respond to national political pressures. The authors found that Federal Reserve policymakers do take into account developments in regional unemployment when deciding monetary policy, and that these regional developments are more important for central bankers at the hub than in the spokes. This working paper can be found at the United States Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers. You can access it by going to http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/.

This paper examines price level convergence, relative prices, and inflation in Europe. Price level convergence offers a potential explanation for recent cross-country differences in European inflation. This is a worrisome development under the European Central Bank's 'one-size-fits-all' monetary policy. The author presents direct evidence on price level convergence in Europe, using a unique data set, and then investigates how much of the recent divergence of national inflation rates can be explained by price level convergence. Analysis demonstrates that between 1990 and 1999, prices did become less dispersed in the euro area and convergence was especially evident for traded goods. In addition, a statistically-significant and robust negative relationship between the 1999 price level and 2000 inflation rate in Europe was discovered, as was the contribution of price level convergence to explaining inflation differentials. This working paper can be found at the United States Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers. You can access it by going to http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/.

An increasing number of proposals to improve bank market discipline through the introduction of a mandatory subordinated debt policy (MSDP) have been presented and critically discussed by academic economists and bank regulators. Although theoretical issues are important in this debate, an accurate understanding of the market of banks subordinated notes and debentures (SND) and of the securities main features is also considered as relevant for the potential design, introduction, and goal setting of such a policy. This paper builds on information regarding issuers, investors, markets and securities technical features to critically discuss these aspects. The author presents data on over 1,800 European banks SND issues completed during 1988-2000 together with information on primary and secondary market functioning. This working paper is available at the US Federal Reserve Board. You can access this site by going to www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/workingpapers.htm.

This paper empirically investigates whether private investors can discriminate between the risk taken by banks. The author tests the risk sensitivity of European banks' subordinated notes and debentures (SND) spreads. She uses a unique dataset of spreads, ratings, accounting and market measures of bank risk as a sample of SND issued during 1991-2000. She finds that Moody's Bank Financial Strength (MBFS) and FitchIBCA Individual (FII) ratings, which omit the influence of government and other external support on risk borne by investors, perform better than accounting variables in explaining the variability of spreads. Results support the theory that SND investors are sensitive to bank risk, with the exception of SND issued by government owned or guaranteed institutions. Results also show that the risk sensitivity of SND spreads has improved during the nineties. This working paper is available at the US Federal Reserve Board. You can access this site by going to www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/workingpapers.htm.

This paper examines European economic integration, taking into consideration standard thinking about fiscal federalism. The main features of European integration are described, and how institutions in the European Union fit the prescriptions of a federal system is analyzed. The analysis found that in some areas the European Union has already developed arrangements that fit standard views of fiscal federalism. In other areas there is gradual movement toward prescribed arrangements, and in still other areas the European Union's unique historical path may suggest some interesting new departures in the federalism literature. Recommendations for Europe, based on the orthodox principles of fiscal federalism, and some modifications of these orthodox principles based on the European experience, are also discussed. This working paper can be found at the United States Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers. You can access it by going to http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/.

This paper explores deviations from short-run purchasing power parity (PPP) across European cities, attempting to expand research that document very large border effects. This study documents two very distinct types of border effects embedded in relative prices: the "real barriers effect", caused by various barriers to market integration and a sticky-consumer-price cum volatile exchange-rate effect. These border effects are shown to be important empirically, the second type especially so. The authors argue that the two effects are very different from each other and the first type of effect implies deadweight welfare losses. The second type of border effect could be eliminated with fixed exchange rates with welfare not necessarily being increased. This working paper can be found at the United States Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers. You can access it by going to http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp/.

This paper develops a framework for exploring human capital accumulation, unemployment, and relative wages in a global economy. It builds on the models by Davis (1998a, b) about trade between a flexible wage America and a rigid wage Europe and adds a model of human capital accumulation based on Findlay and Kierzkowski (1983). The authors develop a variety of comparative statistics, including changes in educational capital and population, entry of new countries to the trading world, technical change, and a productivity slowdown. They also examine the consequences for the skilled-to-unskilled wage gap, unemployment, and skill composition. This working paper can be found at the United States Federal Reserve Board's International Finance Discussion Papers. You can access it by going to http://www.federalreserve.gov/pubs/ifdp

The School of Languages and Applied Linguistics at the Open University (OU) radically re-designed its modern languages curriculum in 2014, launching its first suite of new modules in 2017. The institution as a whole has since also developed a new employability framework. Our paper describes the principles underpinning the design of the new curriculum, demonstrates how it is being implemented, and focuses on an initiative that involved our Associate Lecturers (ALs) in defining a 'well-rounded graduate' and reflecting on plurilingualism and their roles as language teachers in a distance-teaching institution. Presenting our Teaching Excellence project, its processes, and findings in this paper will allow colleagues who teach modern languages to replicate or adapt parts of our approach in their own settings, exemplifying to the wider world how language skills can become an inherent element of the well-rounded graduate in the 21st century. [For the complete volume, "Languages at Work, Competent Multilinguals and the Pedagogical Challenges of COVID-19," see ED612070.]

Climate change is an ongoing process that, at the current pace of such activities, cannot be avoided. Tools have been proposed to deal with climate change focus on adaptation and mitigation. Strengthening national and international awareness of and commitment to reducing the impact of climate change has become the only viable option to ensure the sustainability of life on Earth. The Paris Agreement entered into force in 2016 with the aim of bringing all nations together in a common goal of combating climate change and adapting to its impacts. According to the Agreement, every party should submit a climate plan laying out its adaptation and mitigation targets. Technical and vocational education and training (TVET) has the potential to play significant roles in these plans. The smooth transition to green societies and economies relies on amongst others the knowledge, skills and competencies to promote sustainable development. Effective education and training for sustainable development pivots on governance and vision, and the ability to empower people in an inclusive manner to act in favour of sustainable development. It also relies on the ability to train, upskill, reskill and empower those that can take advantage of the job growth and job creation potential in a changing economy. This discussion paper compiles and reviews relevant information regarding the country submissions (Nationally Determined Contributions and National Communications) which lay out adaptation plans and the policies created in fifty-seven selected countries. The aim is to summarize key information that can help assess the ongoing and potential contribution of TVET to the realization of these plans. The analysis made through this discussion paper has helped to generate a set of approaches for climate change adaption, through the education and training lens. These approaches can be used to advance the discussion in strengthening the technical and vocational skills development component in country climate adaptation plans. [This report was written in collaboration with Uthpala Sankalpani.]

Due to its close links to the labour market, technical and vocational education and training (TVET) can play an important role to improve job opportunities and livelihoods for young people, and in particular for disadvantaged youth. However, this potential is not always fully realized, and relatively little research and evidence has been collected about the barriers disadvantaged youth face when accessing to and progressing through TVET. This paper maps some of the main barriers disadvantaged youth face in TVET and examines available evidence on strategies and approaches that are being used or can be used to meet the needs of disadvantaged youth. The paper discusses these barriers using a framework that looks at '4As': availability, accessibility, acceptability, and adaptability. The report is the outcome of a study conducted in collaboration with the University of Nottingham and other members of the UNEVOC Network.

This paper is part of the joint project between the Directorate General for Migration and Home Affairs of the European Commission and the OECD's Directorate for Employment, Labour and Social Affairs on "Review of Labour Migration Policy in Europe". This document has been produced with the financial assistance of the European Union. The views expressed herein can in no way be taken to reflect the official opinion of the European Union. Grant: HOME/2013/EIFX/CA/002/30-CE-0615920/00-38 (DI130895) A previous version of this paper was presented and discussed at the OECD Working Party on Migration in June 2015. The paper investigates the preferences and post-graduation mobility behaviour of international students, focusing on how the EU could succeed in attracting and keeping highly educated talent from across the globe. Providing their skills to European labour markets, graduates from outside the EU have a potential to enrich the supply of high-skilled labour. Seen as the 28 EU countries still constitute the most attractive destination area for studying abroad, the paper examines different calculation methods in order to generate stay rates for over 170 countries of origin. Empirical results indicate that for the EU as a whole, aggregate stay rates from stayers from all non-EU source countries lie within a range of 16.4% and 29.1%. They are also typically very low among students from other OECD countries, and much higher for students from less developed or politically less stable countries. The paper concludes by recommending a catalogue of measures to boost the EU's attractiveness, and to increase stay rates. Proposed policy measures draw on a smooth labour market integration of international graduates, as well as on cultivating strong points of the European countries, such as: political stability and participation possibilities, reliable institutions and governance structure, as well as an innovative and competitive environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]