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The article presents several abstracts of research papers about business organization, managerial economics and marketing. The first paper "Determining the Optimum Replacement Pattern," by A.H. Chisholm, attempts to clarify some confusion that has been apparent in the literature of agricultural economies in recent years with respect to providing a criterion for determining the optimum replacement pattern for long-lived assets. The second paper "Some Estimates of the Cost of Capital to the Electric Utility Industry, 1954-57, provides estimates of the cost of capital or cut-off rate appropriate for optimal investment decisions for a sample of large electric utilities in the years 1954, 1956, and 1957. In the third paper "An Error Parameter for the Reilly-Converse Law of Retail Gravitation," by F.H. Sweet, the converse form of the law is applied to calculate the attractive force exerted by a homogeneously populated community of radius on a one-member community situation at a distance from center.

The article examines the two factors affecting electrical rates. The present paper deals mainly with two fundamental questions: (1) the bearing of the time of consumption upon the rate, and (2) the proper influence of quantity taken upon the rate. While the importance of the load factor constitutes the great peculiarity of the electrical rate situation, quantity discounts constitute the most troublesome practical problem. Quantity taken is perhaps more important than load characteristics as the reason for class rates, even where the latter are ostensibly based on load-factor grounds.

In a recent article Baruch Lev analyzed 29 peak-demand forecasts (consisting of 1917 monthly forecasts) made by Commonwealth Edison Company between 1955 and 1966. The conclusions made by Lev from analysis of these actual forecasts bear a close resemblance to the kinds of conclusions that we derived from an application of time series analysis to historical data to produce forecasts. It is the purpose of this paper to show how the conclusions which Lev made about forecast errors would also be true of the errors resulting from forecasts derived solely from analysis of historical data. Although in no way definitive, such a demonstration of consistency between actual forecasts made by businessmen and statistical forecasts made only from historical data yields further evidence of the practical applicability of time series analysis to forecasting problems in real life. In particular Lev concluded that the major factor affecting the distribution of forecast errors was the month of the forecast and that the "… interval between prediction and realization has only a slight effect on the prediction errors." Mr. Lev's analysis of these observations showed that the expected value of forecast errors was about one quarter of one percent and independent of the time interval of the forecast. In addition he pointed out that the variance of the log forecast errors increased slightly with the prediction interval but was affected more directly by the month which was forecasted. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The possible use of fissionable substances as a new and important source of energy gives rise to a number of economic questions. This paper deals in a very general way with two sets of questions—those related to the comparative costs of producing energy from atomic fuels and other sources, and those related to the economic consequences which might follow the introduction and use of atomic fuels. The discussion is built around examples which illustrate each of the questions considered. Energy is developed in the atomic pile in the form of heat. The heat produced might possibly be consumed directly in a variety of industrial and nonindustrial uses requiring either low- or high-temperature heat. In the light of what is known of current research on peacetime applications of atomic power, it is probable that the earliest important use of the heat produced in the pile will be in the generation of electricity. It is for this reason that such estimates as have been made of the cost of energy from atomic sources have been for the generation of electric power. This paper, similarly, is limited to a discussion of atomic energy as a source of electric power.

The article presents a comment on a previous article New England Power Economics, by Roy G. Poulsen that appeared in the August 1965 issue of the journal Land Economics. According to the author, this article describes prospective improvements in electricity supply and costs in New England and looks forward to the time, not too far in the future, when atomic energy for utility generating plants will be widely used in the Northeast, and New England at long last will have a power source no more costly to the region than to any other part of the nation and its competitive power cost disadvantage will come to an end. The Poulsen paper learns heavily, as of course it must, on statements by utilities and their executives about future plans for larger, more efficient conventional and nuclear regeneration. According to the author, the reason for the present high level of electric rates in New England lies not solely in fuel cost. The fixed costs of operation and maintenance, depreciation, taxes and rate of return as well as the magnitude of the unit investment per customer and per kilowatt must be examined in depth before one can be sure of the reasons for the present situation.

Nearly 2,000,000 of our farms now use central station electric power. Not much of this farm electrification very recent, but the social aspects and implications of this new factor in rural life have received very little objective investigation. In this paper a variety of questions believed to be worthy of and suited to investigation are raised: Does electrification increase taint income and farm value? What are its effects upon tenant mobility and cityward migration of youth? How does the farmer use his electricity? Does he thereby have more leisure; and if so, how is his leisure used? Why do a considerable number of farmers along the lines not use electricity, and what are the social implications of such nonuse in juxtaposition with neighboring Does this new development, particularly through cooperatives, have significant implications as to the size, organization, and governmental consciousness of the community? Does rural electrification contribute to rural-urban understandings? To what extent is rural electrification a directional force in the adjustment of agriculture in our problem areas? Some general aspects of methodology are briefly dealt with [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Comments on several articles about energy resources and research in the U.S. Correlation between oil prices and electric security and supply; Discussion of the economic significance of the inversion of electric rate schedule; Benefits from energy research and development.

Comments on articles about the demand for energy in the U.S. Relationship between consumption of electricity, population and real income per capita; Estimation of electricity demand; Effect of alternative fuels on electricity demand; Price elasticity of demand functions.

More than a decade ago Leland Olds pinpointed the problem of private power companies in the cleverly phrased statement, "Rates are high because costs are high because consumption is low because rates are high." Presumably he meant that rates and costs of private power are high relative to those for public power, leading to lower consumption per potential consuming unit in areas serviced by private power. It is the purpose of this paper to elaborate on those aspects of cost and demand which support and enlarge the argument while leading to the same general conclusion. Private power companies have also been disadvantaged relative to public power in obtaining investment funds. First, they have needed to raise equity capital, which requires a greater return than does debt. Public power had no such problem. Government-financed river basin projects had many objectives only one of which was generation of electric power, and general taxpayers bore a large share of construction costs on that account.

The electric utility industry has experienced rapid growth in the United States since electricity was first introduced as an energy source. The net production of electricity increased at an average rate of 7-2 per cent per year over the period from 1912 to 1964 while over the same period, real GNP increased at roughly 31 per cent per year. The demand by all users of electricity has continued to grow over the last several years and has placed the electric utility industry in a precarious position. Utilities are experiencing increasing pressure on their generating and transmission facilities. Voltage curtailments and reductions attest to the difficulty in meeting current demand levels. Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maryland, St. Louis, and New York are among the important areas of the country that have experienced blackouts or power rationing, especially during the summer months as the result of widespread use of air conditioners. Based on estimates of future electricity requirements, the problem may become more serious. In 1968 the total generation of electricity was slightly over 1200 billion kilowatt-hours, while estimates by the Edison Electric Institute (1968) indicate that the generation of electricity will range from 6 to 10 trillion kilowatt-hours in 30 years.
The objective of this paper is to investigate the factors determining the demand for electricity by time of day and extend the level of disaggregation used in prior studies. The emphasis is placed on estimating the demand for electricity over the 24 hour load curve and, in particular, to ascertain the sensitivity of demand to price. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article presents a response to the commentary about the economic theory on pricing and peak load problem in electricity supply. According to the author, the commentary which showed that a two-rate time-of-day tariff can produce a better use of resources than a tariff based upon a single daily rate did not consider a two-rate system because the introduction of further rates yields rapidly diminishing returns while consumer costs increase and for the separation of energy and capacity costs wherein two rates appeared sufficient.

The article presents a critique of University of Wisconsin professor Peter O. Steiner's economic theory on efficient pricing and peak load problems in electricity supply. The author strongly disagreed on Steiner's solutions which involved discriminatory prices and contended an idea of when price differences are discriminatory and when they are not. In addition, the author emphasized that Steiner's analysis is limited to the long-run solution and separated the short-run and long-run aspects of the problem to provide a more general solution. To provide an interpretation of Steiner's analysis, a short-run and long-run solutions model was presented by the author.

The article presents the summary of the provisional plan of producing a substantial proportion of electricity needs through nuclear power by 1965 in Great Britain. This plan is set to produce twelve power reactors in the next ten years, and provides an indication of likely developments in the following ten years. The Calder Hall is the first attempt in the country to produce electric power from nuclear energy, and further development are projected to use the main nuclear fuel and reduce the capital cost per kilowatt-hour. Details about the probable cost of nuclear power, the provisional program, the capital cost, the long-term and international aspects, and the place of program in government's fuel policy are discussed.

In a paper published, Professor W. P. Gramm makes the interesting claim that if the public is informed and concerned, the market can provide a motivation to the firm not in pure competition to use low pollution methods of production. The paper displays a dichotomy between assumptions concerning behavior of firms and assumptions concerning the behavior of individuals. Professor Gramm shows some recognition of this point. Advertisers, however have begun to appeal to the "social responsibility" of the consumer to purchase products differentiated on the basis of non pollution. Automobile non pollution advertising usually mentions an engine designed to operate efficiently on low-lead or no lead gasolines thus lowering pollution in use. A supermarket which installed aids to non pollution, including information on the ecological effects of various cleaning products, found that total sales rose nearly 5 percent over a 3 month period. This distinction is illustrated by some electrical utility advertising stressing low pollution at the pint of use but ignoring the pollution involved in producing electric power.

The article provides an update on the study about peak load pricing for electric utilities. The author presented a comparison on the studies conducted by M. Marcel Boiteux, H. S. Houthakker and Steiner on peak load pricing. According to the author, Boiteux's article provided a thorough and complete performance that there was scarcely any result of interest in the English literature not already stated by him. In addition, the author emphasized Steiner's major contribution on studying the distinction between the firm-peak and shifting peak cases, and the solution for efficient prices in the long-run capacity equilibrium.