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• The North-South gap of China has widened in recent decades. • This paper focused on the North-South industrial transfer and its impact on emissions. • The North-South transfer aggravated the imbalance of carbon emissions across regions in China. • The spillover effect is the dominant path behind the impact of the transfer. In recent years, the gap between the north and the south of China has been expanding, showing a decreasing proportion of value-added and an increasing proportion of carbon emissions in the north of China, and vice versa in the south of China. Based on the most recent inter-provincial input-output table of China in 2012 and 2017, this paper focused on the North-South industrial transfer of manufacturing, quantified its impact on regional carbon emissions, and decomposed the path of impacts. The results suggest that the North-South industrial transfers of China during 2012-2017 indeed aggravated the imbalance of carbon emissions in the north and the south of China. Further explorations of path decompositions show that the spillover effect through production linkages is the major path where industrial transfer influences regional carbon emissions, particularly in the north of China. The results provide insightful policy implications for the achievement of carbon emissions reduction targets in China as well as the globe. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A failed innovation may signal that line of research must be abandoned. • But on the other hand this line of research could be fruitful if further pursued. • In this case a failure is not a reliable signal that this line should be abandoned. • We show that the latter case is especially relevant in complex technologies. This paper explores whether failures in innovation projects at the firm level contribute to strengthening firms' innovative activities and the odds of future innovation. Building on the literature on NK fitness landscapes, our paper focuses on technological complexity as a key factor that influences the response to innovation failures, guiding whether to discontinue the current path or, alternatively, to leverage the failure as a foundation for future innovation success. We then test the hypothesis derived from our model using a panel data set constituted by ten waves of the Community Innovation Survey held in the Netherlands from 1996 to 2014. Our findings show the fundamental relevance of the different forms of learning that are available to the firm. In particular, we highlight the positive role of learning after a previous innovation project has been abandoned. Previous failure in innovating produces some forms of learning inside the firms, and this learning positively contributes to subsequent successful innovation. Moreover, by differentiating between radical and incremental innovation, and between complex and less-complex innovation landscapes, we highlight the role of incremental innovation over the whole spectrum of landscape complexity, while the role of radical innovation appears to be more limited to less turbulent technological landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The relationship of Firms' GVC positioning and CEP is investigated for the first time. • We find a right-side smile curve between firms' GVC positioning and CEP. • The improvement of CEP could be driven by firms' downstream climbing in GVC. • The demand diversity brought about by consumption-downstream GVC positioning promotes CEP. • The higher the export market efficiency, the larger the environmental improvement effect is. How firms' GVC positioning affects their environmental performance is an interesting but under-researched issue. This paper explores the relationship between GVC positioning and environmental performance from the firm level for the first time. Based on the Chinese Industrial Enterprise Pollution Emission Database from 2001 to 2013 combined with OECD's TiVA and China Customs databases, this paper identifies the existence of a right-side smile curve between firms' GVC positioning and Corporate Environmental Performance (CEP, represented by firms' SO2 emission intensity) among firms in developed regions, supported by industrial policies and with large scale, implying that the improvement of CEP could be driven by firms' downstream climbing in GVC. Mechanism analysis reveals that the demand diversity brought about by consumption-downstream GVC positioning expands firms' imported intermediate goods and enhances firms' innovation to promote CEP. The environmental improvement effects are more substantial when the export market is more efficient. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Addressing Pasinetti's "institutional problem" requires theorising actions. • The paper theorises actions within institutions and changing economic structures. • The paper theorizes collective and particular objectives within economic structures. • How social groups represent structures is crucial to explain structural change. The paper builds on Pasinetti's separation between a dynamic path that provides a normative framework (the "natural economic system") and the need to devise concrete institutions to approximate that path (the "institutional problem"). The paper argues that addressing the "institutional problem" requires theorising the role of actions within economic structures. By doing so, it proposes an approach to institutional analysis that shows how an economy growing with structural change offers opportunities for, and imposes constraints on, the pursuit of collective objectives as well as particular objectives by social groups variously defined. It also makes it possible to address the interplay between collective and particular objectives. A key argument is that how social groups themselves represent structures and their position therein is a non-reducible factor to explain which dynamic path an economy follows out of those which a given structure makes possible. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• First, on the basis of theory and industrial development history, this paper puts forward the LASIS model, which can analyze the process of technological innovation promoting industrial upgrading. • Second, this paper may initially open the "dark box" of technological innovation. • Third, this paper holds that incremental technological innovation is universal, while radical innovation is sporadic; radical technological innovation is also based on incremental technological innovation. • Fourth, using the LASSIS model, this paper can analyze the mechanism of gradual technological innovation to promote industrial upgrading. • Fifthly, this paper may also have some contributions to the transformation of paradigms. Industrial upgrading driven by technological innovation follows the LASIS process, that is, technological innovation promotes industrial gradual upgrading through the leading-in of new technologies, architectural innovation, standardization, integration innovation, and paradigm shift. At different stages of technological innovation, there are different internal mechanisms for industrial upgrading. New technology and new products are introduced in the stage of leading-in. Architectural innovation mainly establishes dominant technology and products through design competition to form technical barriers. In the stage of two-way recursive standardization, industrial upgrading is promoted through four intermediate variables: cost saving, value chain upgrading, economies of scale, economies of scope and modularization, and technology diffusion. In the stage of integration innovation, industrial upgrading is driven by diffusive fusion innovation, absorptive fusion innovation, technology crossing integration innovation, and intra-industry technology integration innovation. The stage of paradigm shift is mainly the substitution of the new paradigm for the old one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper identified the innovation networks and innovation environment as the core components of the regional innovation system. • A two-region, three-sector New Economic Geography model is developed by integrating the digital economy, innovation cooperation, R&D elements flow, and innovation output into a unified framework. • Digital economy promotes innovation output through promoting intra-regional and inter-regional cooperation and attracting the flow of R&D elements personnel and capital. • Underdeveloped cities benefit more from digital economy, while large central cities function as conduits and generate spillover effects to interconnected regions. This paper explored the paradigm shift in spatial innovation dynamics driven by the rapid emergence of the digital economy (DIGE) through the lens of the regional innovation system (RIS). By integrating DIGE, RIS, and innovation output into a unified analytical framework, this study examined the impact and mechanisms of DIGE on innovation output across 330 Chinese cities from 2011 to 2020. Results show that DIGE development significantly contributes to innovation output. This contribution is mediated by DIGE's strengthening of the RIS, primarily through its facilitation of integration into innovation networks and enhancement of the innovation environment. Regional heterogeneities are evident in the innovation-promoting influence of DIGE, with less developed cities, cities with underdeveloped infrastructure, and smaller cities benefiting more significantly. While the direct impact of DIGE on large central cities is subtle, their pivotal positions enable them to radiate and disseminate innovation spillovers to connected cities through extensive cooperative networks. This study underscored the potential of leveraging DIGE, especially in disadvantaged regions, to cultivate robust and synergistic RIS and act as catalysts for augmented innovation output. [Display omitted] [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the trajectory of global income inequality since 1981. Commonly used (relative) definitions indicate a decline in global inequality since the late 1980s. Looking ahead, it has been intuited that the influence of China's economic development—and that of other rapidly growing, populous nations—on the between-country component will, at some juncture, diminish and start to add to global inequality should economic growth persist. Our paper formalizes the turning point of global inequality through a simple model. For illustrative purposes, we empirically present the implications for the timing of the turning point in the context of a weaker post-pandemic growth recovery versus a stronger, albeit improbable, post-pandemic growth recovery. We conclude by arguing that the era of declining global income inequality is likely over, considering the forces influencing both the between-country and within-country components. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We study the specific impact of the digital economy on the upgrading of urban residents' consumption structure and its mechanism of action. • We analyze the heterogeneity at the level of city development. • The development of the digital economy is conducive to promoting the upgrading of urban residents' consumption structure. • Disposable income and industrial structure upgrading are important internal mechanisms. • Compared to first-tier and second-tier cities, the digital economy has contributed more to upgrading residents' consumption structure in third-tier cities. Based on the panel data of Chinese cities from 2011 to 2020, this paper studies the impact of the digital economy on urban residents' upgrading of their consumption structure. The digital economy promotes the upgrading of urban residents' consumption structure. Moreover, the digital economy has a more significant effect on promoting the upgrading of residents' consumption structure in third-tier cities. The mediation effect proves that increasing disposable income and upgrading the industrial structure are crucial mechanisms. Based on pertinent findings and the development levels of various cities, this paper proposes policies to strengthen the digital infrastructure, improve residents' income, optimize industrial structure, and establish differentiated measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This study examines the link between competition and innovation globally, using data from the top corporate R&D spenders in manufacturing and service sectors from 2007 to 2016. • It measures competition with the inverse Lerner Index and uses R&D spending as an indicator of innovation, expanding the scope of prior research. • The analysis differentiates between manufacturing and service industries and considers both incumbents and new market entrants. • Findings indicate a complex, inverted-U shaped relationship between competition and innovation, varying by industry type and market position. • The paper enriches the literature by offering new empirical insights into the global innovation-competition dynamic, overcoming previous research limitations. This paper investigates the relationship between competition and innovation using a worldwide dataset of manufacturing and service industries. The sample comprises the world's top corporate R&D spenders listed in the EU 2017 industrial R&D Scoreboard, and the analysis covers the years spanning 2007 to 2016. We use an industry-year indicator, the inverse of the Lerner Index, to measure the competition level prevailing between these large R&D companies. R&D expen d itures are used as a proxy for innovation. The model is estimated using two-stage least squares to control for the potential endogeneity of the competition indicator. Our contributions are three-fold. Firstly, we examine the innovation-competition nexus at the worldwide level, thus extending the geographical coverage of previous studies. Secondly, we analyze the relationship separately for manufacturing and service industries, characterized by different technological and knowledge-based regimes. Finally, we distinguish between incumbents and new entrants in the worldwide market. Our findings confirm the existence of an inverted-U shaped relationship between competition and innovation and show that this relationship differs between manufacturing and service industries. The results also reveal that the effect of competition on innovation varies between incumbents and new entrants. Our paper contributes to the existing literature by providing novel empirical evidence on the innovation-competition nexus based on a global sample and addressing previous studies' limitations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

On the occasion of the centennial of his mentor Alvin Hansen, Paul Samuelson published in 1988 a modified version of his seminal 1939 multiplier-accelerator model to address aspects of Hansen's secular stagnation hypothesis. The "Keynes-Hansen-Samuelson" model (or KHS, as he called it) was built to analyse the effects of population growth on the economy's trajectory. Several changes were then made. Instead of difference equations and a tight accelerator, as in his 1939 model, Samuelson deployed differential equations and a flexible accelerator to produce a nonlinear limit cycle. Despite Samuelson's strong claims for the analytical contributions of his 1988 paper, it has – in contrast with the 1939 model – received only scant attention by macroeconomists and historians of economics alike. Samuelson's 1988 paper was his last published macroeconomic model, based on his long-established tradition of non-optimising macro-dynamics. Our paper provides a close reading of that article and some analytical results that shed new light on the formal aspects of Samuelson's 1988 model. We also discuss how it historically links up with business cycle models advanced by John Hicks, Nicholas Kaldor, Roy Harrod and Richard Goodwin and examine how far Samuelson's use of the term secular stagnation differs from Larry Summers's recent reconstruction of it. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The paper engages with the devastating consequences that the belated neoliberal reformation of the Greek welfare state – initiated after the 2009 economic crisis – had on income inequality and poverty. • It is argued that these reformations rely on the manner with which Greece has developed its relations within the global – mostly European – capitalist division of labor as a peripheral economy. Greece's economic affairs are approached as intimately conditioned by a multifaceted institutional structure of dependencies that outstrips its ability to exercise economic policy for its own interest. • Essentially built upon premises of a core-periphery dependency paradigm, the paper takes the view that since the onset of the 2008 global crisis, the EU anti-labor agenda is extended to country-members – such as Greece – which were long regarded as being poorly integrated or "lagged behind". The large-scale reformation of the Greek welfare state is exemplified and a novel interpretation of estimating the country's poverty level with attention paid to the ineffectiveness of the implemented reforms, is offered. • New estimation methods show the failure of neoliberal welfare policy in assisting even the most vulnerable members of the population, a process known as "targeting". This last part is further supported by genuine evidence drawn from several waves of microdata surveys (see Section 6) illustrating the uneven relation between Greece and the EU. • Three different measures of poverty and efficiency are presented based on original analyses of the official datasets, showing the extent of the overall income loss and the widening gap between Greece and the EU. The paper holds a critical view on EU austerity policies, with particular emphasis given to Greece. It is maintained that the main causes for the implementation of neoliberal reforms should be examined in the manner with which the Greek economy has developed in relation with the European capitalist division of labor as a peripheral economy. Greece is approached as intimately conditioned by a multifaceted institutional structure of dependencies that outstrips the country's ability to exercise economic policy for its own social interests. Essentially built upon the premises of a core-periphery dependency paradigm, the periodic post-war reconfigurations of the EU architectural design offered enough room to the formation of a stricter policy framework along these lines. By developing a set of differentiated indices on European poverty, the devastating consequences of the belated neoliberal reformation of the country's welfare state are highlighted. All calculations are based on microdata sets of EUSILC surveys. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper focuses on the relation between Marx's and Sraffa's treatments of prices of production. • Sraffa turns out to be right that empirical aggregates have essentially the same magnitudes in prices and labor values. • However, Sraffa's emphasis on the curviness of individual prices is not supported by the data. Rather, empirical prices are mostly near-linear and can be extremely well approximated by a simple quadratic form. This paper examines three propositions: Sraffa's comment that Marx was "of course" right in thinking that labor value and "Sraffa price" (prices expressed relative to Sraffa's standard commodity) aggregates are essentially the same: empirical deviations of various aggregate components of total output are around five percent. This should be reflected in small representative models. Second, Pasinetti is correct that actual Sraffa price paths are generally simpler than those in the theoretical literature – as confirmed by the 403 industry price curves of the US 2002 input-output matrix. Third, as has been often demonstrated, Marx's transformation procedure is an iterative procedure for deriving Sraffa prices. Bienenfeld derives powerful first and second iterates, each beginning and ending at the corresponding individual Sraffa price curves. The simple nonlinear form of the second iterate provides excellent fits for the 403 Sraffa price curves. It is therefore an empirically sufficient general form of such price curves. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The paper estimates the effect of changes in the wage share on the growth rate of the US economy for the period 1947–2019. • We use a time varying parameter model, which allows for continuous changes in the regime over time. This is the first paper that has attempted to do this. • We find that the US economy became more profit-led in the first postwar decades until the 1970s and has become less profit-led since. In the last fifteen years of our sample the effect of changes in distribution on economic activity is statistically insignificant. This paper estimates the distribution-led regime of the US economy for the period 1947–2019. We use a time varying parameter model, which allows for continuous changes in the regime over time. To the best of our knowledge this is the first paper that has attempted to do this. This innovation is important, because there is no reason to expect that the regime of the US economy (or any economy for that matter) will remain constant over time. On the contrary, there are significant reasons that point to changes in the regime. We find that the US economy became more profit-led in the first postwar decades until the 1970s and has become less profit-led since. In the last fifteen years of our sample the effect of changes in distribution on economic activity is statistically insignificant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Manufacturing share in India's GDP has increased by about 16 percentage points between 2003 and 2018. • Dominant contribution to increased manufacturing GDP share is made by petroleum refining. • There has been a tremendous increase in the real value-added share of ICT equipment industry. • For assessing properly the performance of manufacturing, double-deflation of GDP is essential. Contrary to a widely held impression that the share of manufacturing in India's GDP has long stagnated, the paper claims that it has increased significantly. Measured at the prices of different goods and services prevailing in 2004-05, and deflation applied separately with input prices as well as output prices to account for differential input price trends, the GDP share of manufacturing has increased during the post-reform period from about 17 per cent in 1993-94 to about 32 per cent in 2018-19. The paper notes that the concept of real share in GDP relates to the volume effect and represents the change in the share of the volume of manufacturing activity out of the volume of all economic activities in the Indian economy. Some explanation is provided for the apparent stagnancy of the share of manufacturing in India's GDP at current prices. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A system of indicators has been established for the high-quality economic development index developed by the Chinese government. • High-quality economic development is divided into five dimensions. • Reliance on the resource industry has significantly reduced the level of high-quality economic development. • The theoretical mechanisms of the impact of resource industry dependence on high-quality development are analyzed. • Government governance capacity weakens the impact of resource industry dependence on high-quality economic development. In resource-dependent regions, the meaning of high-quality economic development has yet to be clarified by published research, despite substantial scholarly interest in the topic. With the help of the economic development index developed by the Chinese government, this paper accurately measures high-quality economic development in 30 provinces in China and investigates how resource dependence and government governance capability affect regional high-quality economic development. Research has found that resource industry dependence has a significant inhibitory effect on high-quality economic development. Additionally, the analysis of the mechanisms revealed that resource industry dependence reduces high-quality economic development through a series of effects including crowding out innovation, weakening coordination, lagging green development, hindering global openness, and sharing in weakening. Further research has revealed that government governance capacity weakens the impact of resource industry dependence on high-quality economic development. A detailed analysis of three subsystem indicators of government governance capacity, namely policy planning, capability commitment, and performance assessment, indicates that they all have a weakening effect. To this end, the paper proposes policy recommendations, including increasing innovation inputs, advancing industrial restructuring, promoting green development, enhancing marketization levels, and constructing a diversified employment system. These measures aim to transform resource disadvantages into resource advantages and facilitate high-quality economic development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Examine industrial trends in six Central American economies, and find that the industrial employment share has declined by an average of 2.5 percentage points over the past two decades. • Decline not due to a trade-driven deindustrialization but rather due to an increase in barriers that restrict the efficient flow of labor across sectors. • Policy interventions targeting these barriers could potentially lead to significant industrial expansion, but the economic impact may be marginal, with aggregate output projected to increase by 3.2 percent or less. • Boosting productivity could be a more prudent growth strategy. This paper analyses industrial trends in six Central American economies by assembling and harmonizing sectoral data from multiple sources. Industrial employment share has declined by an average of 2.5 percentage points over the past two decades. Contrary to a trade-driven deindustrialization hypothesis, which suggests that cheaper imports have replaced domestic production of industrial goods, the findings indicate that this decline is primarily driven by an increase in barriers that restrict the efficient flow of labor across sectors. The paper argues that policy interventions that target these barriers could potentially lead to significant industrial expansion. However, the economic impact of such policies may be marginal, with aggregate output projected to increase by 3.2 percent or less upon eliminating these barriers. Moreover, this approach also carries risks, as it may introduce new distortions that could further hinder economic efficiency. Perhaps a more prudent growth strategy will be to concentrate on boosting productivity, which though challenging, directly affects the output. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper discusses and addresses the main challenges of evaluating the socio-economic impact of high-tech public infrastructures using Earth observations (EO). • The EO infrastructure employs an array of cutting-edge technologies that ultimately contribute to understanding, analysing and managing different natural and societal aspects of Earth with a tremendous socio-economic impact on current and future generations. However, this impact is challenging to understand and quantify. • This paper reviews the current fragmented literature on the socio-economic impact of high-tech infrastructure and builds on a new stream of studies on the cost–benefit analysis of large-scale research science-based infrastructures and on investing in the space economy. • This new evaluation framework estimates EO infrastructures' benefits from the perspective of different types of social agents, directly or indirectly involved, along the value chain. • The framework can be adapted to estimate the socio-economic returns of other high-tech infrastructure investments. This paper addresses the main challenges of evaluating the socio-economic impact of high-tech infrastructures, using Earth observation (EO) as an example. EO is a critical domain of the space economy, providing valuable insights into planet Earth's natural and societal aspects. As national agencies invest in high-tech infrastructures like EO, there is a growing need for evaluate their socio-economic returns (not to be confused with their financial returns). However, there is no clear consensus on how to assess such social impact. Building on a new field of studies of social cost–benefit analysis of research infrastructures and the socio-economic impact of investment in the space economy, we propose a new evaluation framework that considers the various stakeholders along the EO value chain. This approach can be adapted to evaluate the socio-economic returns of other high-tech public infrastructures, such as telescopes, particle accelerators, genomic platforms, synchrotron light sources, supercomputers and cloud infrastructures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Healthcare demand change is investigated from the view of the economic and societal dynamics. • The differentiated risk attitudes of individuals and groups are considered. • An extended PageRank algorithm are applied to determine the weights of experts. • An improved GLDS method is developed to prioritize healthcare risk. • A conflict analysis is established to show PIR between failure modes. Faced with backward and uneven economic conditions and an irrational and increasingly inequitable social structure, healthcare disparities are widening and the healthcare inequalities are expanding. This can lead to an increasing public demand for healthcare services, posing unprecedented risk, such as resource shortages, quality deterioration and rising healthcare costs. By identifying, managing, and optimizing the aforementioned risks within the healthcare system, it helps the healthcare system better address the challenges of expanding healthcare demands under evolving economic and social structure. To achieve this, this paper employs failure mode and effects analysis (FMEA) to identify severe failure modes in healthcare services. However, traditional FMEA methods possess limitations in assessing the dynamics of trust relationships and interaction effects among experts within social networks. Therefore, this paper proposes an improved gained and lost dominance score (GLDS) based social network decision-making method considering risk attitudes for FMEA to prioritize failure modes in healthcare services. First, transform linguistic risk assessment information from an interdisciplinary team of experts based on probabilistic linguistic term sets handle uncertain efficiently. Meanwhile, experts' influence is reflected by an extended PageRank algorithm with trust degrees based on social networks analysis. Next, an improved GLDS method considering the differentiated risk attitudes of individuals and groups is developed to prioritize failure modes. Especially, to solve the problems of soft preference and incomparability relation among failure modes, which are ignored by the traditional GLDS method, a conflict analysis is established to determine the preference, indifference, and incomparability relations. Finally, the practicality of the proposed method is illustrated by the healthcare service risk case in the emergency department and the effectiveness of the developed method is validated by comparison and sensitivity experiments. The results suggest that failure to update labels showing patient severity promptly is the most dangerous. In addition, it would be more economically efficient to analyze the non-comparable failure modes facing different risk factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The paper applied the Lintner model at the national level and examines the determinants of FDI profit repatriation in the Czech Republic and OECD countries. • The repatriation rate in the Czech Republic is higher than in most OECD countries. • Financial development and investment opportunities negatively affect the payout ratio of OECD countries as a group, while the appreciation of host countries' currency and higher effective rates positively affect the payout ratio of OECD countries as a group. • In the Czech Republic, only two factors that encourage repatriation are financial development and corruption enforcement. The paper examines the determinants of FDI profit repatriation in the Czech Republic and OECD countries as a group from 2013 to 2019. By applying the Lintner model about repatriation decisions at the national level, the paper finds the following findings. Firstly, the repatriation rate in the Czech Republic is higher than in most OECD countries. Secondly, financial development and investment opportunities negatively affect the payout ratio of OECD countries as a group, while the appreciation of host countries' currency and higher effective rates positively affect the payout ratio of OECD countries as a group. However, in the case of the Czech Republic, two factors that cause a higher payout ratio are financial development and anti-corruption enforcement. It implies that the Czech Republic should improve its financial market development and reduce the level of corruption to keep the profit from FDI in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• In recent years many developing countries pursued policies aimed at increasing the banking sector's ability and willingness to lend to households. • These policies contributed to relaxing borrowing constraints households were previously subjected to. • This paper presents a two-sector open economy model that examines the sectoral implications of policy driven household lending expansions. • I use macroeconomic data from the Turkish economy to motivate the model. • The paper shows that policy driven expansions in household lending can have adverse sectoral implications by benefiting low productivity nontradable industries at the expense of higher productivity tradable industries. This paper analyses the sectoral implications of household credit expansions in a two-sector open economy model. In the model, policy-induced expansion in banks' willingness and ability to lend to households results in new lending, boosting aggregate demand and average wages in the nontradable sector. Under fixed relative wages and mark-up pricing in the tradable sector, wage pressures translate into inflationary pressures. The inflation-targeting central bank increases the policy rate to contain inflationary pressures. This intervention causes a real exchange rate appreciation, followed by a reduction in international competitiveness and a contraction of the tradable sector output. This way, the model illustrates that consumer credit expansions can trigger premature deindustrialisation , shifting the sectoral structure away from the high-productivity tradable sector towards the lower-productivity nontradable sector. Key macroeconomic developments from the Turkish economy between 2002 and 2013 are presented to motivate the model. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A new index is proposed to quantify the economic impact of COVID-19 on countries. • The index shows an extreme heterogeneity in the economic impact of COVID-19. • The factors behind this heterogeneity are explored using regression techniques. • The analysis includes pandemic-specific factors and structural factors. • Results stress the importance of industrial development for resilience. The socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 has been widely uneven across regions and countries, reflecting underlying differences in their resilience against shocks. This paper tries to explain this heterogeneity by identifying factors of resilience and vulnerability. To fully capture the impact of the crisis on economic activity, we propose a novel index of GDP loss that measures both the initial shock and recovery rate at the country level. With a dataset of 125 countries, we implement cross-sectional regression techniques to estimate the impact of pandemic-specific and structural factors on the index. The focus of the analysis is placed on a dimension that was not sufficiently explored yet in the specialized literature: the role of industrial capabilities. Results show that industrial capabilities were crucial in supporting countries' ability to absorb and resist the global shock. The paper thus provides new empirical evidence on the role played by manufacturing industries in strengthening resilience to face unexpected events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Extended Goodwin model integrates endogenous technological change and labor supply. • Reinterpretation of induced innovation in terms of mechanization. • Application of 3D-Hopf bifurcation theorem reveals limit cycle dynamics. • Employment rate's effect on productivity as a bifurcation parameter defines cycle stability. • Numerical simulation for 10 OECD economies and sensitivity analysis. This paper extends the Goodwin model of distributive cycles by incorporating the simultaneous endogeneity of technical change and labor supply within a classical-Marxian framework. It reinterprets induced innovation, suggesting that firms optimize mechanization to maximize cost reduction, obtaining a micro-founded relationship between mechanization and the wage share. Additionally, it assumes a positive relationship between labor supply and the employment rate. The resulting three-dimensional dynamical system includes wage share, employment rate, and capital-output ratio as state variables. The Hopf bifurcation theorem reveals the emergence of limit cycles as the employment rate's effect on labor productivity (reserve-army-creation effect) approximates a critical value from below. Numerical simulations for 10 OECD countries illustrate the cyclical nature of the model and its consistency with empirical patterns. Furthermore, a sensitivity analysis explores the effect of parameters variations, emphasizing the social dimensions of productivity and labor supply as critical factors defining the stability of distributive cycles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Cyclicality in aggregate productivity predicts the efficiency of resources reallocation. • Aggregate productivity growth originates from within-plants, allocative efficiency gain, and due to entry and exit. • We exploit the Great Recession to analyse the validity of the 'Cleansing' or 'Scarring' effect of recession and 'Schumpeterian Darwinian Selection' for Indian manufacturing. • The contributions to aggregate productivity growth from within-plant and net-entry effects are procyclical. • Plants in export-oriented industries are crucial in explaining the pro-cyclicality. • The exporting sectors during 2008-09 shifted resources from more productive to less productive plants. • The relatively productive exporters exited the markets following the global crisis, scarring the economy. • The positive contribution from the net-entry exit effect of plants during the economic downturn validates the 'Schumpeterian approach of Darwinian Selection'. Understanding the cyclicality in aggregate productivity helps answer whether the economy allocates resources efficiently or not. The paper analyses the sources of aggregate productivity growth, such as direct efficiency gain within-plants, allocative efficiency gain, and gains due to entry and exit during economic fluctuations. In particular, we exploit the economic shock of the Great Recession to analyse the validity of the 'Cleansing' or 'Scarring' effect of recession and 'Schumpeterian Darwinian Selection' for Indian manufacturing. The rise and fall of within-plant and net-entry effects during the economic fluctuations explains the pro-cyclicality of productivity growth. Plants in export-oriented industries are crucial in explaining the pro-cyclicality. Negative external shock to exporting sectors during 2008–09 shifted resources from more productive to less productive plants. The relatively productive exporters exited the markets following the global crisis, scarring the economy. Nonetheless, the positive effect from the net-entry exit of plants during the economic downturn makes the 'Schumpeterian approach of Darwinian Selection' valid. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We investigate the nature of path dependency in specialization of countries in terms of international trade. • We isolate the related variety component in density and then estimate logit regressions that predict gains or losses of specialization. • The relative influence of unrelated variety on changes of specialization increases with the level of diversification of the country: only countries that are not already diversified are strongly influences of related variety. • The impact of the country effect in the impact of unrelated diversity in gains or keeps of specializations increases with diversity. • Existing capabilities breed new capabilities, i.e., diversification is a virtuous circle that is largely independent of relatedness, and that the source of path dependency in international specialization patterns lies much more in generic production capabilities rather than relatedness in product space. In this paper, we investigate the nature of path dependency in specialization of countries in terms of international trade. Our focus is on the product space density metric, which is employed in the literature on smart specialization and the product space. We find that although density is supposed to capture relatedness between a country's current specialization pattern and potential products that it may diversify into, density also contains a large component of what we call unrelated diversity, i.e., country- and product fixed effects. Together, these fixed effects capture 97 % of the variance of density. We isolate the related variety component in density and then estimate logit regressions that predict gains or losses of specialization. The relative influence of unrelated variety on changes of specialization increases with the level of diversification of the country: only countries that are not already diversified are strongly influences of related variety. We also show that the impact of the country effect in the impact of unrelated diversity in gains or keeps of specializations increases with diversity. This suggests that existing capabilities breed new capabilities, i.e., diversification is a virtuous circle that is largely independent of relatedness, and that the source of path dependency in international specialization patterns lies much more in generic production capabilities rather than relatedness in product space. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Goodwin–Keen model was introduced to study the structural instability of debt-financed economies. Despite its theoretical appeal, no empirical study has focused on this model to date. Using u.s. data for non-financial firms over the period 1959–2019, this paper tests the empirical validity of a Goodwin–Keen model accounting for dividends. We propose a two-step procedure to simultaneously estimate parameters and quantify their uncertainty. The model satisfactorily captures the historical cycles in the wage share and employment rate, while reflecting the trend growth in the debt-to-output ratio. The estimation provides meaningful parameters, although their large uncertainty suggests that the model fails to fully account for the private debt dynamics. The estimated model assigns a probability of at most 11% to the occurrence of a private-debt overhang over the 21st century. However, it would have failed to foretell the Global Financial Crisis. Further work is therefore needed to improve its prospective capacity. • A new estimation strategy is used to estimate the parameters of a Goodwin–Keen model for the United-States (1959-2019). • The model captures the historical wage-share, employment rate and corporate debt-to-output ratio trajectories. • The model's behavior is discussed based on prospective simulations and a backtesting over the 2008 crisis period. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Introduction of flexible (or non-regular) work has a negative impact on productivity. • This negative impact is strongest under innovation regimes that rely on highly cumulative knowledge. • Supply-side deregulation of labor markets is likely to have contributed to a productivity growth slowdown in major OECD countries after 2004. Due to labor market reforms around 2003–4, Japan has a growing group of 'non-regular' workers who are easy to fire, and have poor carrier perspectives. This marks a break with the traditional Japanese model of life-time employment that allowed for intensive in-company training and commitment of personnel. Drawing from a national wage structure survey, we find indications that employment of non-regular workers has a negative impact on productivity (proxied by wages), this negative impact being largest under innovation regimes that require a high cumulativeness of knowledge. Our findings are consistent with neo-Schumpeterian research in Europe which concluded that certain labor market rigidities, while being un desirable from a neoclassical perspective, can be useful to innovation. Our paper confirms the impression from earlier research that structural reforms of labor markets along supply-side lines are likely to be one of the reasons for a substantial decline of productivity growth in major OECD countries since about 2004/05. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We explore the intersectoral linkages of the Greek tourism sector. • We find that tourism demonstrates strong forward linkages. • The backward linkages of the tourism sector appear to be weak. • The growth of the economy would lead to the expansion of tourism, not vice versa. This paper assesses the intersectoral linkages of the tourism sector of the Greek economy using an extended version of the hypothetical extraction method, which allows the intersectoral effects of the labor force reproduction process to be taken into account, and data from the symmetric input-output table for the year 2015. The findings of our analysis show that the role of tourism in the Greek economy is more as a seller of inputs in other sectors than as a buyer of inputs, a finding that can be reduced to the high participation of the tourism product in the labor force reproduction process. In other words, an increase in demand for the tourism product cannot bring about a strong growth in the economy, since the sector's dependence on inputs from other sectors for its operation is low and, therefore, the increase in the tourism product does not lead to a large increase in the production of the other sectors. On the contrary, an increase in demand for the products of other sectors will lead to a strong growth of the tourism sector, since the dependence of other sectors on inputs of the tourism sector is high. The interdependencies in the production structure of the Greek economy show that the tourism sector cannot be the basis of a growth policy (i.e. by stimulating tourism demand), but, conversely, the growth of the Greek economy will lead to a significant increase in its tourism sector. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We examine the role of circular economy and inclusive green growth in promoting energy transition and carbon neutrality in Europe. • We used three-pronged empirical strategy framed in advanced dynamic econometrics. • The results reveal that lagged of CO 2 emissions is a positive predictor of CO 2 emissions. • We show that embracing circular economy and inclusive green growth will be highly beneficial towards the attainment of carbon neutrality. • We recommend policy measures that considers both current and past emissions to promote environmental quality. This paper examines the role of the circular economy and inclusive green growth in promoting energy transition and carbon neutrality for several European countries during 2009–2021, using an advanced econometric strategy. To achieve this objective, we employed a three-pronged empirical strategy. The first strategy involved standard panel specifications, such as pooled ordinary least squares, Fixed Effects, Roger panel regression, white panel regression, and Driscoll–Kraay standard errors. The second strategy explored the long- and short-term dynamics of the relationships using the dynamic specifications of the Generalised Method of Moments, comprising the augmented Arellano–Bond, Ahn–Schmidt, Arellano–Bond, and Arellano–Bover/Blundell–Bond estimators. It further controls for endoegeneity using the Two stages Lease Square (2SLS and Lewbel 2SLS). The third strategy employed the Machado and Silva quantiles via moments to re-evaluate the heterogeneity drivers of carbon neutrality. Furthermore, an alternative and complementary strategy based on the statistical procedures of Hausman–Taylor and Feasible Generalized Least Squares was employed to verify robustness. The findings suggest that prior carbon emissions positively predict future emissions. Also, our results reveal that the adoption of a circular economy, including green growth and renewable energy, can significantly contribute to reducing carbon emissions. In contrast, domestic economic drivers, and eco-innovation increase carbon emissions. We propose that policymakers mandate producers to oversee the entirety of their product life cycles as a means to mitigate carbon emissions. Furthermore, endorsing training programs and educational initiatives aimed at cultivating the requisite skills for the energy transition and the adoption of circular economy practices is imperative for ensuring the realization of a successful low-carbon economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper contributes to the structuralist growth literature, by studying the macroeconomics of GVCs. • We develop a typology of growth regimes associated with external integration, productive structure and income distribution. • Growth dynamics vary across geographical regions and globalisation has intensified processes of uneven development worldwide. • We employ causal econometric analysis to estimate the impact of the three regimes (integration, structure and distribution) on economic growth. • Industrial policy in developing countries should prioritise the combined effect of the three regimes on economic growth, not any one dimension in isolation. This study investigates the macroeconomic interactions between productive structure and income distribution in the context of Global Value Chains (GVC). Our research goes beyond the traditional scope by presenting a detailed typology that examines how globalisation has amplified uneven development processes on a global scale. This in-depth exploration provides valuable insights into the intricate interplay between global economic integration and regional development disparities, thereby contributing to the broader understanding of growth and distribution in the context of globalisation. We propose a theoretical framework inspired by the Structuralist literature to identify three distinct regimes in globalised production chains: (1) a structure/diversification regime based on the Balance of Payments Constrained Model (BPCM) literature, (2) an integration regime derived from the GVC literature, and (3) a functional income distribution regime in open economies. We use Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to create indices (proxies) for each regime to then identify country patterns within a structured typology. We then analyse growth trajectories and estimate the causal relationship between these regimes and per-capita growth using multiple regression models – fixed effects (FE), instrumental variables (IV), and generalised method of moments (GMM). Our dataset includes data from 60 countries between 1995 and 2018, sourced from the World Development Indicators (WDI), World Input-Output Database (WIOD), Trade in Value Added (TiVA), and the Penn World Tables (PWT). This study significantly enhances the understanding of structuralist growth models by offering a comprehensive and unified narrative on the variety of economic growth regimes within Global Value Chains (GVCs). [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• It tests the impact of environmental investment on the productivity of listed firms. • Environmental investment has significant negative impact on the productivity. • The negative impact on the listed firms with high productivity is relatively large. • The nature of state-owned firms hinders the improvement of firm productivity. • Environmental investment affects the productivity of heavily-polluting firms. This paper analyses the impact mechanisms of environmental investment on the productivity of listed firms in China. The empirical results show that, first of all, environmental investment has a significant negative impact on the productivity of listed firms, which confirms that listed firms have a typical compliance cost effect. Moreover, listed enterprises with low productivity and high productivity are less negatively affected by environmental investment than are listed enterprises with moderate productivity. Secondly, the first-order lag term of environmental investment has a significant inhibitory effect on the productivity of listed companies in the eastern region, but has no significant impact on the productivity of listed companies in the central and western regions. Finally, the increase in environmental investment has a great influence on the productivity of listed firms in heavily polluting industries, but it has no obvious influence on non-heavily polluting industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Identifies factors affecting the workers' bargaining power. • Builds a composite index for the United States using the principal component analysis. • Analyses the relationship between this index and the wage share in the years 1960–2018. • Discusses the link between the workers' bargaining power and inflation. • Estimates the Phillips curve and explains why it has flattened over the last decades. This paper aims to construct a synthetic index of workers' bargaining power and investigate the relationship between it and inflation in the U.S. economy. As a first step, we identify the factors affecting the bargaining power of workers, referring to different groups of variables: labour market indicators; institutional indicators (e.g., collective bargaining coverage, union density); characteristics of the economy (e.g., degree of freedom for capital mobility, share of employment by sector). We then implement Principal Component Analysis (PCA) to assess the adequacy of the indicators and calculate the weights to aggregate the single indicators into a composite index. As a second step, we estimate the impact of our Bargaining Index on inflation by estimating an equation of the determinants of inflation. The composite index thus has a twofold use: it sheds light on the extent to which changes in the labour market in recent decades have weakened workers' bargaining power, and it can be used to test how the evolution of the wage bargaining system affects inflation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the impact of the accumulation of tangible capital, ICT and intangible capital assets like software and databases or R&D on employment growth and the changes in labour income shares at the country-industry level. The econometric analysis is derived from a Cobb–Douglas production function taking into account the stylised fact that the capital–output ratios are rather constant or increasing over time with the latter being the case particularly for ICT and intangible assets. The accumulation of tangible assets like machinery and transport equipment then has a relatively strong positive relation to employment growth. Further in line with the theoretical outline, the accumulation of ICT assets or intangible assets are less strongly related to employment growth. Both these conjectures are confirmed econometrically. The impact on labour income shares is mixed, but generally small. • Capital–output ratios are increasing with capital accumulation of ICT and intangible asset types. • Accumulation of tangible capital is positively related to employment growth. • ICT and intangible capital accumulation is also positively but only weakly linked to employment growth. • Impact on labour income shares is mixed and small. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Engaging in export activities is a key factor influencing firm performance. This paper explores the export-productivity and export-capital intensity relationship using firm-level data from the Brazilian manufacturing industry over the period 2007–2014. The empirical strategy combines Propensity Score Matching (PSM) and Differences in Differences (DD) methods and explores the fact that firms enter the external market at different moments, generating a variation in the period and permanence in international trade. We find static and dynamic effects on labor productivity, total factor productivity, and capital intensity. Firms that start exports experience an average productivity growth of about 5% and a 2% decrease in capital intensity compared to non-exporting firms. The permanence in the activity magnifies these impacts. After three periods, the growth (reduction) in productivity (capital intensity) is around 10.5% (4.7%). We identify heterogeneous effects, leading to variations in magnitude across dimensions such as technological intensity, size, age, ex-ante levels of productivity and capital intensity, and intensive margin of trade. We also show that firms become more labor intensive by demanding more skilled workers. • Engaging in export activities is a key factor influencing firm performance. • We explore the export-productivity and export-capital intensity relationship using firm-level data from Brazilian manufacturing industry over the period 2007-2014. • We find static and dynamic effects on labor productivity, total factor productivity, and capital intensity. • Firms that start export experience an average productivity growth of about 5% and a 2% decrease in capital intensity compared to non-exporting firms. • Firms become more labor intensive by demanding more skilled workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• E-waste has become a major environmental concern due to its increasing volume. • Socioeconomic and institutional factors are used to analyse the recycling of EEE. • Annual data from 2010 to 2018 were analysed in 20 EU countries by using a GMM. • GDP per capita, research & development and CO2 emissions decrease EEE recycling. • Education, environmental taxes, and waste collected drive the recycling rate of EEE. Moving from a linear to a circular economy is crucial to reduce environmental pressure. This transition is particularly relevant in the Electrical and Electronic Equipment (EEE) industry, given that EEE has one of the fastest-growing waste streams. Recycling is one solution for dealing with the growing amounts of this e-waste. Therefore, this paper analyses the drivers and barriers to e-waste recycling, taking into account the role of economic, social, institutional, and behavioural factors. Yearly data from 2010 to 2018 for 20 European Union countries were analysed employing an Arellano-Bond Generalised Method of Moments. The main findings were that, while environmental taxes and education boost the rate of e-recycling, economic growth and R&D appear to reduce it, and certain age groups are less likely to recycle e-waste. Recycling policies should prioritize education, environmental taxes, and addressing reluctance among the young and elderly to recycle. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The consensus that manufacturing was the strategic road for development has recently been challenged. • We constructed an original and extensive database on the world manufacturing production, that provides information about value added and employment for 200 countries, of which 160 developing countries, for the 1970–2018 period. • The study does not reveal evidence of a recent decline of manufacturing in developing countries, including or not China. Rather we document a continuous expansion of manufacturing employment in the developing world, that accounts now for 82 % of the world employment, while the share of the developing economies in the world output has doubled over the period. • Since 2010, we observe and we quantify a new pattern. Manufacturing employment does not increase any more in China, while it has continued to grow at the same pace in the rest of the developing world. • Our findings show that manufacturing has continued to play a key role in economic development. Thus, low-income countries should not give up industrialization strategies and should learn from the recent experiences of rapid industrialization and growth. The "rise of the Rest" and almost all successes in economic development have relied on late industrialization. However, the consensus that manufacturing was the strategic road for development has recently been challenged. This paper addresses the issue of the status of manufacturing for economic development in the current period. To clarify whether the importance of manufacturing in developing countries has declined or not in the 21st Century, we constructed an original and extensive database on the world manufacturing production, that provides information about value added and employment for 200 countries, of which 160 Developing countries, for the 1970–2018 period. The study does not reveal evidence of a recent decline of manufacturing in developing countries, including or not China. Rather we document a continuous expansion of manufacturing employment in the developing world, that accounts now for 82 % of the world employment, while the share of the developing economies in the world output has doubled over the period. Since 2010, we observe and we quantify a new pattern. Manufacturing employment does not increase any more in China, while it has continued to grow at the same pace in the rest of the developing world. Our findings show that manufacturing has continued to play a key role in economic development. Thus, low-income countries should not give up industrialization strategies and should learn from the recent experiences of rapid industrialization and growth. In the near future, the upgrading of China's industrial structure will enlarge the windows of opportunities in manufacturing for late-comers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Uses the staggered DID method to investigate the impact of culture on tourism. • The cultural system reform promotes tourism mainly by increasing domestic tourism revenues. • Analyzes the complex factors influencing cultural tourism. • Explores potential mechanisms by which the cultural system reform affect tourism. Culture is the cornerstone of regional tourism development, yet the impact of culture is difficult to quantify. This paper utilized a quasi-natural experiment to characterize the impact of culture on tourism. Based on the 295 cities data from 2000 to 2020, we adopted the Staggered Differences-in-Differences strategy to examine whether the Cultural System Reform (CSR) policy could stimulate tourism development. As a crucial component of the institutional reform framework in China, CSR is a pivotal policy aimed at exploring cultural productivity and fostering the development of culture in accordance with societal demands. The results show that the policy significantly increased the total tourism arrivals and the total tourism revenue. Mechanism analysis shows that the CSR policy boosted tourism development by improving service quality, public cultural infrastructure construction, and media integration development. Geographical conditions, tourism resource endowment, and transportation infrastructure also have an impact on the effectiveness of policy implementation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the influence of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on foreign direct investment (FDI). By utilizing a comprehensive dataset spanning 264 Chinese cities from 2005 to 2014, we uncover a negative relationship between EPU and FDI inflows. In addition, through heterogeneity tests, we demonstrate that this effect is more pronounced in cities characterized by a higher degree of marketization, stronger financial development, and a larger proportion of industrial production. Moreover, we observe that FDI exhibits greater sensitivity to EPU fluctuations following the 2008 Global Financial Crisis. To provide an explanation for these findings, we propose an open-economy model incorporating uncertainty. • We show the negative impact of rising EPU on FDI. • We use the data on province-level EPU and city-level FDI. • FDI is more sensitive to EPU in better developed cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A productive restructuring model for the Greek economy is introduced. • The productive structure is optimized by using a particle swarm optimizer. • Policy intervention should focus on technologically advanced industrial sectors • The improvement of the economic structure cuts across all the economic system • Industrial structure adjustment has great potential to economic development policies The term productive restructuring refers to the transformation of an economic system for reaching predefined economic and social goals. The aim of this paper is to develop a methodological framework of productive restructuring, based on input-output analysis, targeting the optimization of the productive structure of an economy. The process of the productive restructuring involves: firstly, the reallocation of production among different economic sectors and, secondly, a process of intermediate input substitution. The proposed optimization model aims at the maximization of the total employment under macroeconomic constraints. A Particle Swarm Optimization algorithm is employed for the solution of the optimization problem. The proposed methodology is applied to the Greek economy. Results appear to show that the productive restructuring should focus on manufacturing sectors, mainly those of high and medium-high technological level. The findings of the research suggest that industrial structure adjustments have great potential for policy development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Complete descriptive panel models use absolute numbers on industry growth. • Decomposes agglomeration effects into industry, structure and spillover effects. • Identifies inter-industry relationships that define evolutionary growth regimes. • Simulation scenarios with manipulated values or coefficients reflect interventions. • The application finds compensatory growth that confirms a previous lock-in. Inter-industry relationships constitute growth regimes in regional evolutionary developments. The paper proposes a regression-based counterfactual simulation approach with location-level industry data in order to analyse systematically how the relationships between different industries and the growth regimes these relationships constitute differ across regions, and how these differences affect the response of regional development to interventions. At the core of the approach are complete descriptive panel regression models that decompose agglomeration effects into industry, spillover, and structure effects. With the identified coefficients simulations are carried out. To demonstrate its advantages, we apply the approach to the analysis of path-dependent employment growth in a livestock-intensive German location facing capacity constraints. In some of the scenarios, where individual industries are affected by exogenous shocks, we observe compensatory growth in other industries. This confirms the occurrence of evolutionary dynamics and the relevance of approaches that recognise and reproduce them. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The impact of labor market institutions (LMIs) on regional patents is studied. • I argue that the supply-side approach is fallacious for Europe. • Stronger wage-setting institutions can foster innovation in Europe. • Wage-setting institutions offset the negative impact of employment protection legislation (EPL) on innovation. • Positive spillover effects are identified between European regions. The main goal of this paper is to investigate the relationship between labor market institutions (LMIs) and patents in 177 NUTS-1 and NUTS-2 European regions. Fixed effects models, ordinary least squares (OLS), the generalized method of moments estimation of the fixed effects (FE-GMM), multilevel modeling (MLM), and spatial models are employed. Patents are negatively correlated with EPL and union density and positively associated with wage bargaining coverage and centralization. As a result, a uniform wage that is higher than the competitive wage can enable the Schumpeterian creative destruction process, forcing firms to invest in innovation to remain in the market. Spatial analysis emphasizes that regional proximity promotes the flow of knowledge and increases the chance of innovation. Interactions also matter. Increased bargaining power and coordination, in particular, may outweigh the negative consequences of isolated EPL reforms. Thus, policies that strengthen wage-setting institutions are required in Europe to boost innovation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We study the relationship between GVC embedding and carbon emission density. • A mediation effect model was established to test the mechanism. • There is a U-shaped relationship between urban GVC embedding and carbon emission density. To achieve its carbon peak and neutrality plan, whether China's global value chain (GVC) embedding has a carbon emission reduction effect is a question worthy of attention. This paper measures the GVC embedding degree of 218 Chinese cities from 2000 to 2016, and constructs a panel data model to investigate the impact and its mechanism of GVC embedding on carbon emission intensity. This study finds that there is a significant U-shaped relationship between GVC embedding and carbon emission intensity, and a series of robustness test results support this conclusion. Export scale, energy consumption structure and technological innovation play a mediation role in the impact path of GVC embedding on carbon emission intensity. Based on this, this paper proposes that while participating in GVC, China needs to actively utilize the emission reduction effect of GVC, promote the transformation of export mode to high quality, reduce the use and dependence on high-carbon resources such as coal, and encourage companies to innovate. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyze the relation between financial integration and fiscal policy space in developing countries. • Deeper integration in the global financial system may force developing countries to fiscal austerity and exacerbate macroeconomic instability. • A more developed productive structure, together with capital controls, may favour fiscal expansions and stabilize their economies. This paper offers a simple, tractable post-Keynesian model, which highlights the importance of structural change and productive development in defining the dynamics of the Real Exchange Rate (RER) and foreign debt in a small open developing economy. The argument is that in countries that keep the capital account open and rely on austerity policies to induce a notional surplus in the Balance of Payment, the RER can hardly be used as a tool aimed at smoothing the impacts of changes in international financial markets (as argued in the classical macroeconomic trilemma). In our model, capital flows and fluctuations in the RER endogenously feed back into each other and give rise to medium-term cyclical macroeconomic volatility. Fiscal austerity, supposedly taming external imbalances, exacerbates such instability. More diversified productive structures and stronger non-price competitiveness open more space for expansionary fiscal policies, make the economy more resilient to finance-led macroeconomic cycles and make external debt more sustainable. Capital controls, together with stronger price sensitivity of net exports, can further stabilize the economy. The paper carries important policy implications, in particular for the combination of industrial and macroprudential policies in peripheral economies, whose pattern of specialization is highly dependent on a few low-tech commodities. The adoption of industrial policies to foster non-price competitiveness and diversification is critical to sustaining macroeconomic stability, both in the short and the long run. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Higher fertility rate induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. • The three-child policy slightly increases fertility intention. • The three-child policy increases emission abatement of the designed emission trading scheme. • In emission trading scheme, technological progress increases GDP and decreases total emissions. • The three-child policy strengthens technological impacts on GDP but weakens technological impacts on emissions. Although population growth plays a vital role in driving anthropogenic climate change, fertility impact on achieving mitigation target is usually overlooked in literature. This paper attempts to narrow the research gap by employing a Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model to analyze the interrelations among fertility rate, fertility policy, and climate policy in China. The model results show that fertility rate negatively correlates with GDP and emissions because higher fertility induces more labor for childcare and thus crowds out labor for work. The three-child policy raises fertility intention; it does not unidirectionally influence the effects of the emission trading scheme (ETS) on employment and GDP, but it increases ETS emission abatement. Technological progress increases GDP and decreases emissions; the three-child policy strengthens technological impact on GDP but weakens technological impact on emissions. Hence, technological progress benefits emission mitigation; the three-child policy enhances economic benefits but impairs emission abatement of technological progress. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• New panel dataset of Marxist variables for 43 countries from 2000 to 2014. • Dataset includes rates of surplus value, composition of capital, shares of productive activity, and profit rates for the global economy. • The paper tests Marx's hypotheses on economic development at the world level. • Marx was right at the global level: capital intensity rises faster than exploitation rate, and the global profit rate declines. • Productive capital relocated to China, and unproductive activity increased in developed countries. We assess Marx's hypotheses about capitalist development on a global scale by constructing a new dataset of Marxist variables (profit rates, exploitation rates, composition of capital, and shares of productive activity) for 43 major economies, derived from world input-output data and national accounts in the 2000–2014 period. Consistent with Marx's hypotheses, the average profit rate declines at the world level, between countries, and within countries. The global rate of exploitation increases until 2008 but stagnates after the financial crisis, while capital intensity continued to increase. At the cross-country level, rich countries became increasingly dominated by unproductive activity. China absorbed much of the world's productive activity and kept the labor share of value added roughly constant at the world level. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Adoption of sustainable investing exchange-traded funds is shaped by various factors. • Insurance companies and pension funds with positive effects. • Also supporting impact of stock markets, new technologies and financial development. • Lesser importance of the financial motives. • In case of mutual funds and institutional variables results are mixed. Despite the growing interest in various topics related to sustainable (ESG) investing, some issues remain understudied, such as the determinants of their utilization at the macro level. This paper contributes to the state of knowledge two-directionally. First, it shows the development of sustainable investing exchange-traded funds (ETFs) in European countries. Second, it traces the significant determinants of adopting sustainable investing/ESG ETFs in Europe. More specifically, we aim to determine which financial, technological, social or institutional factors have the most significant impact on the growth of levels and over-time dynamics of the sustainable investing ETFs. The empirical sample covers five European economies: France, Germany, Italy, Switzerland, and the United Kingdom and the period of the analysis is 2006–2020. Adopting panel regression analysis, we investigate twenty different variables that potentially impact the development of sustainable investing ETFs across examined countries. Our results confirm the positive effects of the development of insurance companies and pension funds for the assets of the ESG ETFs. Also, factors such as stock markets development, ICT adoption, financial access and literacy, and the prevalence of tertiary-level education demonstrate a positive impact on ESG ETFs. The role of the financial performance and tax levels resulted in being neutral, thus indicating the lesser importance of the financial motives in relation to the other factors. The results were mixed in the case of the mutual funds and institutional variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Present the employment effects of global value chain (GVC) sticky relationships. • Distinguish link-structure and circle-structure relationship between enterprises. • Make a distinction between domestic GVC employment and cross-border GVC employment. • GVC linkages are more stickier than interactions between domestic-owned enterprises. • Provide a Chinese story of whether GVC sticky relationships help stabilize employment. Global production beyond borders is becoming an invisible force for stabilizing employment, and the behaviour of firms featuring transnational corporations has become critical to the development of production. In this paper, we construct a systematic quantitative analytical framework of measuring global value chain (GVC) sticky relationships and analyze the steady growth of employment from the perspective of inter-firm interactions firstly, furthermore, provide the latest evidence from China. Our findings show that: multiple interactions between firms for that participate GVC contribute to the development of the GVC sticky relationships and promotion of employment growth, the GVC sticky relationship accounts for approximately 17.32 % of the total employment in China, and domestic GVC sticky relationship activities have become an important force in stabilizing and promoting employment growth in China, it surpasses cross-border GVC employment since 2008. Furthermore, we characterize the shape of GVC sticky relationships and find that the circle-structure relationship effect has greater potential to stabilize employment in China, particularly in the sectors of ICT, wholesale and retailor. Therefore, mitigating the transaction costs of participating in GVC by reducing institutional barriers in the process of firms' interactions is significant for maintaining the employment stability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, we present a hybrid Agent-Based Stock-Flow-Consistent (AB-SFC) model about the macroeconomic and distributional implications of central bank's decision to leave a "Low(-for-long) Interest Rate Environment" (LIRE). Our goal is to study the non-linear effects of monetary tightening when implemented under LIRE than in an alternative "Higher Interest Rate" setting (HIRE). This way, we shed light over the interaction between monetary policy, inequality, and macro-financial fragility in a financialized economy characterized by the presence of securitization and the production of complex financial products, i.e., Asset-Backed Securities (ABSs). We obtain three main findings. First, consistent with existing empirical literature, LIRE may be sources of vulnerabilities in the financial industry (i.e., lower banks' profitability and capital adequacy ratio). However, it may reduce systemic macro-financial risk by stimulating faster growth, lower unemployment and inequality records alongside with lower public and private indebtedness and lower-scale securitization. Second, central bank's decision to raise interest rates improves financial sector's performance indicators at the costs of harsh real-side consequences, i.e., permanently higher unemployment and inequality, when implemented under LIRE. Third, financialization structurally changes the functioning of the economy by feeding the creation of a debt-led economy in which monetary policy becomes less effective in its attempt of controlling inflation. Central bank's reaction in the form of a permanently tighter monetary policy stance eventually prompts a more unequal and unstable rentier-friendly economy. • We study central bank's decision to leave a Low Interest Rate Environment (LIRE). • We show how leaving LIRE causes permanent employment losses and higher inequality. • We show how securitization reduces the effectiveness of monetary policy. • We show how securitization may give rise to a rentier-friendly economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The demand for eco-products due to the exigency of friendly and environmental production could affect the employment of the firms. This paper tests whether product and process eco-innovations boost employment in Spain differentiating by the environmental goals (material and energy efficiency and environment responsiveness), by the level of qualification of the workers, and by the dirtiness of the industries. We apply a Green Harrison model, using the Technological Innovation Panel (PITEC) for Spain from 2008 to 2016. Results show a positive relationship between all types of product eco-innovations and employment, while the influence of process eco-innovations on employment depends on the environmental goals, the level of skills, and the industry. Specifically, distinguishing by industry there is a labour-saving effect in clean industries and a labour-friendly effect for low-skilled employment in dirty industries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the role of political connections in facilitating access to credit for firms in the Indian corporate sector. This study aims to address gaps in the literature by combining theoretical insights with empirical data. Our model proposes that political connections may reduce risk for firms, thereby enhancing their access to credit. Utilizing a unique dataset of S&P BSE 500 companies from 2001 to 2019, we analyze the extent of these connections and their impact on financial leverage and debt-to-asset ratios. Our findings reveal that politically connected firms, defined by their monetary donations to political parties and the inclusion of Members of Parliament on their boards, exhibit significantly higher financial leverage and debt-to-asset ratios than unconnected firms. This implies a lower perceived borrower's risk and an advantageous position in accessing credit, likely a result of their political ties. The implications of our findings extend to the realms of corporate governance, economic policy, and the broader understanding of emerging market dynamics. • Political connections, as part of non-market strategies of firms, may be crucial in accessing credit. • Our theoretical framework highlights role of risk and donation to political party by a firm in accessing credit. • This study constructs a novel dataset of political connections of Indian companies. • Political connections lead to more favorable borrowing-related outcomes of companies such as, financial leverage and debt-assets ratio. • Political connections specific to a particular political party tend to serve companies more (in terms of the aforementioned outcomes), when that particular party is in power. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper examines the issue of enhancing the efficiency of regional public employment systems. A region's sectoral employment pattern serves as an indicator of its socioeconomic development level. Understanding structural shifts occurring in response to inter-industry labor flows is critical to achieve effective employment policies. In this study, we propose a classification of economic sectors that uses as key criterion the impact on public employment of structural shift components (national share, industrial mix, regional shift) and can be used as a tool for evaluating the effectiveness of regions' sectoral policies and for identifying industries with potential for job creation. The analysis demonstrates the significance of Groups 1–3economic sectors, for which the local share is positive and exceeds the national and industry mix share, in the efforts to increase regional employment. We evaluate the employment potential of the Russian Arctic regions' economic sectors through identifying their core industries and relative concentration. By using as example the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), we demonstrate the scholarly and practical value of the proposed classification in enhancing the effectiveness and objectivity of local sectoral policies. We further provide the analysis of share the national, sectoral, and regional factors represent in sectoral employment shift, and present the industries that have played a dominant role in the Republic of Sakha's employment growth. Using the proposed classification, we evaluate the efficiency of the employment policy of the region under study and propose recommendations for growth in sectoral employment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]