Socioeconomic resilience during the COVID-19 pandemic. The role of industrial capabilities.

• A new index is proposed to quantify the economic impact of COVID-19 on countries. • The index shows an extreme heterogeneity in the economic impact of COVID-19. • The factors behind this heterogeneity are explored using regression techniques. • The analysis includes pandemic-specific factors and structural factors. • Results stress the importance of industrial development for resilience. The socioeconomic impact of COVID-19 has been widely uneven across regions and countries, reflecting underlying differences in their resilience against shocks. This paper tries to explain this heterogeneity by identifying factors of resilience and vulnerability. To fully capture the impact of the crisis on economic activity, we propose a novel index of GDP loss that measures both the initial shock and recovery rate at the country level. With a dataset of 125 countries, we implement cross-sectional regression techniques to estimate the impact of pandemic-specific and structural factors on the index. The focus of the analysis is placed on a dimension that was not sufficiently explored yet in the specialized literature: the role of industrial capabilities. Results show that industrial capabilities were crucial in supporting countries' ability to absorb and resist the global shock. The paper thus provides new empirical evidence on the role played by manufacturing industries in strengthening resilience to face unexpected events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]