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In epidemiologic studies, association estimates of an exposure with disease outcomes are often biased when the uncertainties of exposure are ignored. Consequently, corresponding confidence intervals (CIs) will not have correct coverage. This issue is particularly problematic when exposures must be reconstructed from physical measurements, for example, for environmental or occupational radiation doses that were received by a study population for which radiation doses cannot be measured directly. To incorporate complex uncertainties in reconstructed exposures, the two-dimensional Monte Carlo (2DMC) dose estimation method has been proposed and used in various dose reconstruction efforts. The 2DMC method generates multiple exposure realizations from dosimetry models that incorporate various sources of errors to reflect the uncertainty of the dose distribution as well as the uncertainties in individual doses in the exposed population. Traditional measurement-error model approaches, typically based on using mean doses in the dose-exposure analysis, do not fully account exposure uncertainties. A recently developed statistical approach that overcomes many of these limitations by analyzing multiple exposure realizations in relation to disease risk is Bayesian model averaging (BMA). The analytic advantage of the BMA is its ability to better accommodate complex exposure uncertainty in the risk estimation, but a practical. Drawback is its significant computational complexity. In this present paper, we propose a novel frequentist model averaging (FMA) approach which has all the analytical advantages of the BMA method but is much simpler to implement and computationally faster. We show in simulations that, like BMA, FMA yields 95% confidence intervals for association parameters that close to 95% coverage rate. In simulations, the FMA has shorter length of CIs than those of another frequentist approach, the corrected information matrix (CIM) method. We illustrate the similarities in performance of BMA and FMA from a study of exposures from radioactive fallout in Kazakhstan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Cervical cancer remains one of the top causes of cancer-related morbidity and mortality all over the world. Currently, however, there are no published studies to assess the knowledge of HPV and cervical cancer in Kazakhstan. This study aimed to assess the awareness of HPV, the knowledge of HPV as a cause of cervical cancer, and the awareness of HPV vaccination among Kazakhstani women visiting gynecological clinics across the country. In addition, the study aimed to identify the factors associated with the awareness of HPV and the HPV vaccine and knowledge of HPV as a major cause of cervical cancer. This was a cross-sectional survey-based study with 2,272 women aged between 18–70 years attending gynecological clinics, who were administered paper-based questionnaires. Data analysis included descriptive statistics consisting of mean values, standard deviations, and frequencies, where applicable. Differences in categorical variables between groups were analyzed using the Chi-square test with a significance value of <0.005. Crude odds ratio (OR) and adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with 95% corresponding confidence intervals were calculated in regression analysis using univariate and multivariable logistic regression models. The mean age of participants was 36.33±10.09 years. More than half (53%) of the participants had been screened for cervical cancer. Among those who were aware of HPV, 46% knew that HPV causes cervical cancer and 52% were aware of the HPV vaccine. The key factors related to outcome variables were age, ethnicity, education, family, number of deliveries, and menarche. From a subgroup analysis, results from the HPV test and Pap smear test were factors related to dependent variables such as awareness of HPV and awareness of HPV vaccination. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In pan Pamir Plateau countries, Peste des petits ruminants (PPR) has brought huge losses to the livestock industry and threaten the endangered wildlife. In unknown regions, revealing PPRV transmission among countries is the premise of effective prevention and control, therefore calls for quantified monitoring on disease communication among countries. In this paper, a MaxEnt model was built for the first time to predict the PPR risk within the research area. The least cost path (LCP) for PPR transboundary communication were calculated and referred to as the maximum available paths (MAP). The results show that there are many places with high-risk in the research area, and the domestic risk in China is lower than that in foreign countries and is mainly determined by human activities. Five LCPs representing corridors among Kazakhstan, Tajikistan, Pakistan, India and China were obtained. This study proves for the first time that there is the possibility of cross-border transmission of diseases by wild and domestic animals. In the future, it will play an important role in monitoring the PPR epidemic and blocking-up its cross-border transmission. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The potential for developing smart cities in Kazakhstan is evaluated using cluster analysis. Built on previous research focused on clustering the regions of Kazakhstan, this study applies the same method to the cities of the country. The analysis uses indicators related to human capital, infrastructure, education, information technology, production, and other factors to assess the potential of each city. The clustering is performed using Single Linkage, Complete Linkage, and Ward's methods. The results show that Almaty and Astana are the cities with the highest potential for becoming smart cities. Aktobe is identified as a city with distinctive features that may help or hinder its development as a smart city. The remaining cities are clustered into two groups, with one group having the potential to catch up and maintain the trend of developing smart cities, while the other group is less suitable for starting smart city projects and may require more investment per capita. The study highlights the deep regional inequality affecting the potential to successfully develop and manage smart cities in Kazakhstan. The analysis also reveals some limitations and challenges in the data and variables used, including the lack of data for some variables and the difficulties in "translating" some factors and indicators into quantitative variables for clustering. The study concludes that future research should address these challenges and consider clustering inside certain regions to focus on their unique features. The study recommends launching pilot projects in small cities, with the most successful practices then scaled and implemented in the core smart cities and possibly Aktobe, if it manages to use its advantages to compensate for risks. Overall, this study provides insights into the potential of smart city development in Kazakhstan and can inform policymakers in their efforts to support smart city projects in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Tobacco use is a major cause of premature death and disease in Kazakhstan, with over 22,500 deaths per year. Although efforts have been made to control tobacco use, smoking-related deaths have continued to increase. One strategy to help smokers quit is to use nicotine replacement therapy (NRT), with combination NRT resulting in higher long-term quit rates than a single form of NRT. A study aims to determine the effectiveness of preloaded combination NRT on smoking cessation, the change in health-related quality of life due to smoking cessation, and explore treatment adherence perceptions. Methods and analysis: The study will be conducted as a randomized, single-blind superiority trial, with 100 participants in each arm. The trial will be carried out at the National Research Cardiac Surgery Center, Astana, Kazakhstan, and will recruit current smokers aged 18 years and above with a motivation to quit. Participants will be randomly allocated to either the intervention group or the control group. The former will receive preloaded combination NRT, while the latter will receive fast-acting NRT alone. The primary outcome measure will be sustained abstinence from smoking after six months. Secondary outcome measures will include health-related quality of life and adherence to the treatment. Discussion: The study may gather further evidence that a combination NRT is more efficient than a fast-acting NRT alone. The findings of this study may help to improve tobacco cessation strategies in Kazakhstan and other countries with high smoking prevalence rates. Trial registration number: NCT05484505. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The utilization or secondary use of technogenic waste is a relevant problem for the current economy. To assess the environmental influence and economic potential, it is necessary to study the elemental content of technogenic objects and to reveal the tendencies of the spatial distribution of elements, components, and indices such as the pollution coefficient. In this study, we performed elemental analysis, and calculation of indicators: average gross content, hazard quotients, concentration coefficients of metals, and total pollution coefficients of ground samples taken from the ash-slag storage of the Aksu ferroalloy plant [Aksu, Pavlodar region, Kazakhstan]. Maps of the spatial distribution of concentrations of elements and total pollution coefficients were created. The territory of the studied ash-slag storage by the level of soil contamination should be considered as an environmental disaster zone. The given statistical data on the number of oncological and respiratory diseases indirectly indicated the negative influence of open storage of ash-slag waste. The studied ground was of chromium-manganese geochemical specialization. The calculated volume of the accumulated waste mass by the approximating method was 1 054 638.0 m3. The calculated approximate weight of the accumulated waste was 23 679 576.0864 tons, including 1 822 972.2 tons of chromium, 1 727 354.0 tons of manganese, and 953 813.3 tons of iron. The large amounts of valuable components retained in the waste mass led us to conclude that the studied technogenic object can be considered as a secondary field to produce various technological products. Moreover, valuable metals can be extracted as metal concentrates. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The HIV epidemic continues to grow in Kazakhstan and HIV stigma remains a major barrier to HIV prevention and treatment in the country. HIV stigma in healthcare setting may also discourage people living with HIV (PLHIV) from getting the care needed. Therefore, studying the attitudes of healthcare workers towards PLHIV is important and requires well-constructed measurement tools adapted to the specific cultural context. In our study, we aimed to adapt and re-validate a brief questionnaire on HIV stigma among healthcare workers in Almaty, Kazakhstan. We held focus group discussions to obtain input on an existing questionnaire and surveyed 448 primary healthcare providers to psychometrically evaluate the scale. The final HIV-stigma scale consisted of 15 items, 6 of them measuring negative opinions about PLHIV and the rest assessing stigmatizing health facility policies towards PLHIV. Both HIV-stigma subscales demons6trated adequate psychometric properties (with Cronbach's alpha α = 0.57 for the first and α = 0.86 for the second subscale, and with factor loadings >0.35 within each subscale). High numbers of respondents holding negative attitudes towards PLHIV, detected in this sample (87%; n = 380), may suggest the need for immediate actions addressing HIV stigma in healthcare in Kazakhstan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study of lithic raw material quality has become one of the major interpretive tools to investigate the raw material selection behaviour and its influence to the knapping technology. In order to make objective assessments of raw material quality, we need to measure their mechanical properties (e.g., fracture resistance, hardness, modulus of elasticity). However, such comprehensive investigations are lacking for the Palaeolithic of Kazakhstan. In this work, we investigate geological and archaeological lithic raw material samples of chert, porphyry, and shale collected from the Inner Asian Mountain Corridor (henceforth IAMC). Selected samples of aforementioned rocks were tested by means of Vickers and Knoop indentation methods to determine the main aspect of their mechanical properties: their indentation fracture resistance (a value closely related to fracture toughness). These tests were complemented by traditional petrographic studies to characterise the mineralogical composition and evaluate the level of impurities that could have potentially affected the mechanical properties. The results show that materials, such as porphyry possess fracture toughness values that can be compared to those of chert. Previously, porphyry was thought to be of lower quality due to the anisotropic composition and coarse feldspar and quartz phenocrysts embedded in a silica rich matrix. However, our analysis suggests that different raw materials are not different in terms of indentation fracture resistance. This work also offers first insight into the quality of archaeological porphyry that was utilised as a primary raw material at various Upper Palaeolithic sites in the Inner Asian Mountain Corridor from 47–21 ka cal BP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background & aims: Kazakhstan has implemented comprehensive programs to reduce the incidence of Hepatitis B and Hepatitis C. This study aims to assess seroprevalence and risk factors for HBsAg and anti-HCV positivity in three large regions of Kazakhstan. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted in three regions geographically remote from each other. Participants were randomly selected using a two-stage stratified cluster sampling and were surveyed by a questionnaire based on the WHO STEP survey instrument. Blood samples were collected for HBsAg and anti-HCV testing. Results: A total of 4,620 participants were enrolled. The seroprevalence was 5.5% (95%CI: 3.6%-8.4%) for HBsAg and 5.1% (95%CI: 3.5%-7.5%) for anti-HCV antibodies. Both were more prevalent in the western and northern regions than in the southern. A history of blood transfusion was significantly associated with anti-HCV presence, with odds ratios (ORs) of 2.10 (95%CI: 1.37–3.21) and was borderline associated with HBsAg 1.39 (95%CI: 0.92–2.10), respectively. Having a family member with viral hepatitis was also borderline associated (2.09 (95%CI: 0.97–4.50)) with anti-HCV positivity. Conclusions: This study found a high-intermediate level of endemicity for HBsAg and a high level of endemicity for anti-HCV antibodies in three large regions of Kazakhstan. We found that history of surgery was not associated with HbsAg neither with anti-HCV seropositivity rates. Blood transfusion was associated with anti-HCV seropositivity, however, to investigate effectiveness of the introduced comprehensive preventive measures in health care settings, there is a need to conduct further epidemiological studies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We evaluate bioclimatic changes in Kazakhstan from the end of the 20th century until the middle of the 21st century to offer natural resource managers a tool that facilitates their decision-making on measures to adapt agriculture and environmental care to foreseeable climate change. We use climatic data from the "Providing REgional Climates for Impact Studies" (PRECIS) prediction and study them following the Worldwide Bioclimatic Classification System (WBCS) of Rivas-Martínez. For three 25-year intervals (1980–2004, 2010–2034 and 2035–2059), we identify the continentality, macrobioclimates, bioclimates, bioclimatic variants, thermotypes, ombrotypes and isobioclimates of the study area. The results of the work allow us to: locate the territories where bioclimatic conditions will change, quantify the magnitude of the predicted climate changes, and determine the trends of predictable climate change. We present the results in maps, tables and graphs. For the 80-year interval, we identify 3 macroclimates, 3 bioclimatic variants, 10 bioclimates, 11 thermotypes, 10 ombrotypes and 43 isobioclimates. Some of those found bioclimates, thermotypes, ombrotypes and isobioclimates are only located in the E, SE and S mountains, where they occupy very small areas, that decrease in a generalized way as the 20th century progresses. Comparing the three successive periods, the following trends are observed: 36.2% of the territory increases in thermicity; 7.3% of the territory increases in continentality; 9.7% of the territory increases in annual aridity; 9.5% of the territory increases in summer aridity or mediterraneity; and generalized losses occur in the areas of all mountain isobioclimates. The climate change foreseen by the PRECIS model for the middle of the 21st century leads to bioclimatic homogenization, with 20.8% losses in bioclimatic diversity. We indicate on maps the locations of all the predicted bioclimatic changes; these maps may provide decision makers with a scientific basis to take necessary adaptation measures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Facial expressions in sign languages are used to express grammatical functions, such as question marking, but can also be used to express emotions (either the signer's own or in constructed action contexts). Emotions and grammatical functions can utilize the same articulators, and the combinations can be congruent or incongruent. For instance, surprise and polar questions can be marked by raised eyebrows, while anger is usually marked by lowered eyebrows. We investigated what happens when different emotions (neutral/surprise/anger) are combined with different sentence types (statement/polar question/wh-question) in Kazakh-Russian Sign Language (KRSL), replicating studies previously made for other sign languages. We asked 9 native signers (5 deaf, 4 hearing children of deaf adults) to sign 10 simple sentences in 9 conditions (3 emotions * 3 sentence types). We used OpenPose software to track eyebrow position in the video recordings. We found that emotions and sentence types influence eyebrow position in KRSL: eyebrows are raised for polar questions and surprise, and lowered for anger. There are also some interactions between the two factors, as well as some differences between hearing and deaf native signers, namely a smaller effect of polar questions for the deaf group, and a different interaction between emotions and wh-question marking in the two groups. We thus find evidence for the complex influences on non-manual behavior in signers of sign languages, and showcase a quantitative approach to this field. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

With increasing affluence in many developing countries, the demand for livestock products is rising and the increasing feed requirement contributes to pressure on land resources for food and energy production. However, there is currently a knowledge gap in our ability to assess the extent and intensity of the utilization of land by livestock, which is the single largest land use in the world. We developed a spatial model that combines fine-scale livestock numbers with their associated energy requirements to distribute livestock grazing demand onto a map of energy supply, with the aim of estimating where and to what degree pasture is being utilized. We applied our model to Kazakhstan, which contains large grassland areas that historically have been used for extensive livestock production but for which the current extent, and thus the potential for increasing livestock production, is unknown. We measured the grazing demand of Kazakh livestock in 2015 at 286 Petajoules, which was 25% of the estimated maximum sustainable energy supply that is available to livestock for grazing. The model resulted in a grazed area of 1.22 million km2, or 48% of the area theoretically available for grazing in Kazakhstan, with most utilized land grazed at low intensities (average off-take rate was 13% of total biomass energy production). Under a conservative scenario, our estimations showed a production potential of 0.13 million tons of beef additional to 2015 production (31% increase), and much more with utilization of distant pastures. This model is an important step forward in evaluating pasture use and available land resources, and can be adapted at any spatial scale for any region in the world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, phenotyping and single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) genotyping data of 272 accessions of two-rowed spring barley from the USA along with 94 accessions from Kazakhstan were assessed in field trials at six breeding organizations in Kazakhstan to evaluate the performance of the USA samples over three years (2009–2011). The average grain yield over the six locations was not significantly higher in Kazakh accessions in comparison to the USA samples. Twenty four samples from Montana, Washington, the USDA station in Aberdeen Idaho, and the Anheuser-Busch breeding programs showed heavier average yield than the local standard cultivar “Ubagan”. Principal Coordinate analysis based on two sets of SNP data suggested that Kazakh accessions were closest to the USA accessions among eight groups of samples from different parts of the World, and within five US barley origin groups the samples from Montana and Washington perfectly matched six groups of Kazakh breeding origins. A genome-wide association study (GWAS) using data from eighteen field trials allowed the identification of ninety one marker-trait associations (MTA) in two or more environments for nine traits, including key characters such as heading time (HT), number of kernels per spike (NKS), and thousand grain weight (TGW). Our GWAS allowed the identification of eight MTA for HT and NKS, and sixteen MTA for TGW, when those MTA were linked to mapped SNPs. Based on comparisons of chromosomal positions of MTA identified in this study, and positions of known genes and quantitative trait loci for HT, NKS and TGW, it was suggested that MTA for HT on chromosome 2H (at 158.2 cM, 11_21414), MTA for NKS on 5H (at 118.6 cM, 11_20298), and two MTA for TGW on chromosome 4H (at 94.7 cM, 12_30718, and at 129.3 cM, 11_20013) were potentially new associations in barley. GWAS suggested that six MTA for HT, including two on chromosome 1H, two on chromosome 3H, and one each on chromosomes 4H and 6H, had useful pleiotropic effects for improving barley spike traits. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: In Kazakhstan, scarce official prevalence data exists for mood disorders. This study investigates the occurrence of depressive symptoms among people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), and the relationship between depressive symptoms, HIV treatment initiation and antiretroviral treatment (ART) adherence. Methods: A cross-sectional study was conducted among patients seen at the Almaty AIDS Center between April and December 2013. Two data sources were used: 1) self-administered survey that included the Patient Health Questionnaire (PHQ-9) to capture depression symptoms and 2) medical record review. Two primary outcomes were evaluated with log-binomial models and Fisher’s exact test: the relationship between depression symptoms and 1) HIV treatment group, and 2) HIV adherence. Results: Of the 564 participants, 9.9% reported symptoms consistent with a depressive disorder. None had received treatment for depression. Among those not on ART, a relationship between depressive symptoms and low CD4 counts (≤ 350 cells/mm3) was evident (7.1% for CD4 ≤ 350 cells/mm3 vs. 0.9% for CD4 > 350 cells/mm3, p = 0.029). In multivariable analysis, a higher prevalence of depressive symptoms was statistically associated with ART treatment, positive hepatitis C virus (HCV) status, and being unmarried. For those taking ART, treatment adherence was not statistically associated with a lower prevalence of depressive symptoms (12.5% vs 20.0%, p = 0.176); limited power may have impacted statistical significance. Conclusions: Untreated depression was found among PLWHA suggesting the need to evaluate access to psychiatric treatment. A collaborative strategy may be helpful to optimize HIV treatment outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Santonin, a powerful anthelmintic drug that was formely used to treat worms, is Artemisia cina's main constituent. However, due to its toxicity to humans, it is no longer in use. Kazakhstan is looking to introduce this plant as an anthelmintic drug for veterinary purposes, despite the known toxic properties of the santonin. The objective of this study was to develop a fast and specific method for the identification of santonin and its precise quantitation using HPLC-UV in order to avoid unnecessary intoxication, which is paramount for the development of veterinary medicines. The results obtained showed that santonin appears at around 5.7 minutes in this very reliable HPLC method. The validation of the method was performed by the investigation of parameters such as precision, accuracy, reproducibility and recovery. The method was used to identify and quantify santonin in leaves of A. scoparia, A. foetida, A. gmelinni, A. schrenkiana, A. frigida, A. sublesingiana, A terra-albae, and A. absinthium from Kazakhstan as well as in three different extracts of leaves of A. cina. This study has provided a faster and simpler method for the identification and quantification of this compound in other species of Artemisia of economic importance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Despite a non-decreasing HIV epidemic, international donors are soon expected to withdraw funding from Kazakhstan. Here we analyze how allocative, implementation, and technical efficiencies could strengthen the national HIV response under assumptions of future budget levels. Methodology: We used the Optima model to project future scenarios of the HIV epidemic in Kazakhstan that varied in future antiretroviral treatment unit costs and management expenditure—two areas identified for potential cost-reductions. We determined optimal allocations across HIV programs to satisfy either national targets or ambitious targets. For each scenario, we considered two cases of future HIV financing: the 2014 national budget maintained into the future and the 2014 budget without current international investment. Findings: Kazakhstan can achieve its national HIV targets with the current budget by (1) optimally re-allocating resources across programs and (2) either securing a 35% [30%–39%] reduction in antiretroviral treatment drug costs or reducing management costs by 44% [36%–58%] of 2014 levels. Alternatively, a combination of antiretroviral treatment and management cost-reductions could be sufficient. Furthermore, Kazakhstan can achieve ambitious targets of halving new infections and AIDS-related deaths by 2020 compared to 2014 levels by attaining a 67% reduction in antiretroviral treatment costs, a 19% [14%–27%] reduction in management costs, and allocating resources optimally. Significance: With Kazakhstan facing impending donor withdrawal, it is important for the HIV response to achieve more with available resources. This analysis can help to guide HIV response planners in directing available funding to achieve the greatest yield from investments. The key changes recommended were considered realistic by Kazakhstan country representatives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Xpert MTB/RIF (Xpert) was piloted in Kazakhstan to detect tuberculosis (TB) and rifampicin resistance (RR-)TB among individuals at risk of multidrug-resistant (MDR-) TB. This study assessed the performance of Xpert compared to conventional diagnostic methods, RR-TB case detection among various risk groups, treatment initiation and time to diagnosis and treatment. Methods: Eligible individuals were tested with Xpert, smear microscopy, culture and drug-susceptibility testing (DST) at the national TB reference laboratory and three provincial laboratories. Data was collected prospectively from August 2012 to May 2013 from routine laboratory and treatment registers. Results: A total of 5,611 Xpert tests were performed mostly targeting contacts of MDR-TB patients, ‘other’ presumptive MDR-TB patients, and retreatment cases (26%, 24% and 22%, respectively). Compared to phenotypic DST, the positive predictive value of Xpert to detect RR-TB was 93.1% and 96.4% and the negative predictive value was 94.6% and 92.7% using solid and liquid culture media, respectively. RR-TB detection was highest among (former) prisoners, retreatment cases, people living with HIV/AIDS (PLWHA), and TB patients with positive smears after intensive phase of treatment (59%, 58%, 54% and 53% among TB positives, respectively). 88.9% of RR-TB patients were registered to have started second-line TB treatment. Median time to diagnosis with Xpert was 0.0 days (IQR 0.0-1.0), time from diagnosis to start of first-line treatment 3.0 days (IQR 1.0-7.0), and to start of second-line treatment 7.0 days (IQR 4.0-16). Conclusions: Compared to conventional culture and DST, Xpert had a shorter result turn-around-time and excellent concordance to detect RR-TB. Time from sputum collection to start of second-line treatment was reduced to one week. The yield of Xpert could be maximized by increasing referrals from penitentiary and HIV centers to TB centers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Understanding evolutionary dynamics of pathogens during domestication of their hosts and rise of agro-ecosystems is essential for durable disease management. Here, we investigated changes in life-history traits of the fungal pathogen Venturia inaequalis during domestication of the apple. Life traits linked to fungal dispersal were compared between 60 strains that were sampled in domestic and wild habitats in Kazakhstan, the center of origin of both host and pathogen. Our two main findings are that transition from wild to agro-ecosystems was associated with an increase of both spore size and sporulation capacity; and that distribution of quantitative traits of the domestic population mostly overlapped with those of the wild population. Our results suggest that apple domestication had a considerable impact on fungal characters linked to its dispersal through selection from standing phenotypic diversity. We showed that pestification of V. inaequalis in orchards led to an enhanced allocation in colonization ability from standing variation in the wild area. This study emphasizes the potential threat that pathogenic fungal populations living in wild environments represent for durability of resistance in agro-ecosystems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Anthrax, caused by the bacterium Bacillus anthracis, is a zoonotic disease that persists throughout much of the world in livestock, wildlife, and secondarily infects humans. This is true across much of Central Asia, and particularly the Steppe region, including Kazakhstan. This study employed the Genetic Algorithm for Rule-set Prediction (GARP) to model the current and future geographic distribution of Bacillus anthracis in Kazakhstan based on the A2 and B2 IPCC SRES climate change scenarios using a 5-variable data set at 55 km² and 8 km² and a 6-variable BioClim data set at 8 km². Future models suggest large areas predicted under current conditions may be reduced by 2050 with the A2 model predicting ∼14-16% loss across the three spatial resolutions. There was greater variability in the B2 models across scenarios predicting ∼15% loss at 55 km², ∼34% loss at 8 km², and ∼30% loss with the BioClim variables. Only very small areas of habitat expansion into new areas were predicted by either A2 or B2 in any models. Greater areas of habitat loss are predicted in the southern regions of Kazakhstan by A2 and B2 models, while moderate habitat loss is also predicted in the northern regions by either B2 model at 8 km². Anthrax disease control relies mainly on livestock vaccination and proper carcass disposal, both of which require adequate surveillance. In many situations, including that of Kazakhstan, vaccine resources are limited, and understanding the geographic distribution of the organism, in tandem with current data on livestock population dynamics, can aid in properly allocating doses. While speculative, contemplating future changes in livestock distributions and B. anthracis spore promoting environments can be useful for establishing future surveillance priorities. This study may also have broader applications to global public health surveillance relating to other diseases in addition to B. anthracis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]