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Although developing countries have established scores of new protected areas over the past three decades, they often amount to little more than “paper parks” that are chronically short of the financial, human, and technical resources needed for effective management. It is not clear whether and how severely under-resourced parks affect deforestation. In principle, they could either stem it by, for example, creating an expectation of future enforcement, or they could spur it by, for example, creating open access regimes. We examine the effect of Mexico's natural protected areas (NPAs) on deforestation from 1993 to 2000, a period when forest clearing was rampant and the vast majority of protected areas had negligible resources or management. We use high-resolution satellite data to measure deforestation and (covariate and propensity score) matching to control for NPAs’ nonrandom siting and for spillovers. Our broad finding is that Mexico's paper parks had heterogeneous effects both inside and outside their borders. More specifically, at the national-level, we cannot reject the null hypothesis that NPAs had zero average effect on clearing inside their borders, nor can we reject a similar hypothesis for spillover clearing outside their borders. However, we can detect statistically and economically significant inside- and outside-NPA effects for certain geographic regions. Moreover, these effects have different signs depending on the region. Finally, we find that NPAs with certain characteristics were more effective at stemming deforestation inside their borders, namely, those that were large, new, mixed use, and relatively well-funded. Taken together, these results suggest that paper parks have the potential to either reduce or exacerbate tropical deforestation and highlight the need for further research on the conditions that lead to each outcome. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The paper examines the significance of distributive justice in the discourses of people resisting wind energy in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico. • Activists use health and environmental concerns as frames to avoid social rejection and legitimise other more subtle distributive concerns. • Community norms and power asymmetries play a significant role in the construction of framing mechanisms to resist wind farms. • Is critical to consider reasons for framing mechanisms to advance social and environmental justice. Activists, scholars, and policymakers worldwide have increasingly recognised the intrinsic linkages between energy transitions and justice issues. However, little research exists on how groups affected by renewable energy siting interpret and mobilise justice narratives to legitimise their actions and question development plans. Building on the notion of 'framing' in social movement theory, this study addresses this gap by examininig the discourses adopted by people resisting wind energy developments in the Isthmus of Tehuantepec, Mexico. The study relies on 64 interviews and participant observation. The findings indicate that anti-wind activists used health and environmental concerns instrumentally: as a framing device to avoid social rejection and legitimise other, subtler distributive concerns about the uneven allocation of economic benefits such as tenancy payments. Although this framing was counterproductive and left their concerns unaddressed, activists adopted this strategy because of community norms and practises that stigmatise the explicit discussion of economic inequalities and their fear of challenging existing power structures. This paper therefore highlights the social mechanisms through which energy transitions reproduce economic inequalities. As a policy recommendation, it is critical to consider how inequalities are framed and the underlying reasons for these interpretive schemes to advance socially just net-zero scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Transformations involve undoing conditions stabilizing unsustainable unjust systems. • 'Transformative labor' is the often invisible work of achieving transformations. • Seven types of transformative labor by researchers/societal partners are described. • Research directions are offered to further conceptual development and application. The urgent need for transformations to sustainability has been widely established, but the seeming lack of swift and comprehensive progress have led to well-founded doubts about meeting the goals of the Paris Agreement, the 2030 Sustainable Development Goals and other related global agreements. Often vacuous and potentially misleading pointers to partial progress are not reassuring, while defeatist statements on blanket failure conceal important breakthroughs and advances. This paper resists the unhelpful extremes of this dichotomy and takes a closer look at the work done by activists, researchers and other supporters to mobilize for and foster transformative efforts even if they are often not easily visible. Based on an integrative synthesis of three international, multi-case research projects on transformations to sustainability, it introduces the concept of transformative labor – the work, inner and outer, that has the power to affect transformative change. Often hidden and largely underappreciated, transformative labor helps break through existing systems, and puts creativity, courage, persistence and other physical, social, cognitive and emotional qualities and skills along with physical and financial resources toward achieving system-transcending change. Seven overlapping and interacting categories of transformative labor are described: (1) Detecting & Naming Conditions (Symptoms); (2) Creating Transformative Spaces; (3) Fostering Agency & Empowerment; (4) Enacting Steps to Change Conditions; (5) Visioning & Moving toward Desired Outcomes (Purpose, Horizons); (6) Caring, Tending & Learning; and (7) Scaling Out, Up and Deep. Transformative labor is performed by advocates, researchers and other allies and is always political because it intends to advance a profound change in the status quo. The paper concludes with proposed future research directions to test and advance this novel concept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Develops and tests a conceptual framework of seasonal culture as rhythmic patterns. • Perceived seasonal patterns shift with climatic, environmental and social changes. • People maintain, recalibrate or detach from their seasonal patterns of activities. • Recalibrating seasonal cultures to shifting rhythms is sustainable adaptation. There is a growing literature on the cultural capacities influencing communities' adaptation to environmental and social change, including the temporal frameworks they draw on for timely action. This paper focuses on seasonal cultures, and how they enable communities on the Coromandel Peninsula to interpret and adapt practical timings to disrupted patterns of seasonal rhythms. The paper develops and applies a conceptual framework of seasonal cultures as perceived rhythmic patterns practiced by communities as cultural repertoires for action, emphasising the ways cultures evolve as patterns are contested and change. This concept steered critical, mixed-method ethnographic study with communities on the peninsula over two years. The research found that Coromandel communities' cultures make seasonal change visible as long-term shifts and asynchrony between rhythmic patterns, which they linked to climatic change, environmental degradation, colonisation and globalisation, and shifting relations between society and the environment. As seasonal patterns fail to hold, communities deploy a combination of strategies for re-configuring seasonal rhythms through their practices: (i) maintaining established, institutionalised schemas of activity while coping with seasonal variability; (ii) season-proofing activities from environmental rhythms; or (iii) re-learning and recalibrating cultures to mutable configurations of rhythms in a highly modified environment. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The water crisis at Lake Urmia (Iran) represents a severe socio-economic disaster. • In-depth interviews reveal the multicausality of immobility in times of crisis. • Individuals may aspire to migrate and stay simultaneously ('ambivalent immobility'). • The most vulnerable may have no (im)mobility aspirations ('precarious immobility'). • Generalizing about 'trapped populations' masks the full spectrum of immobility. Empirical research on the links between environmental change and human (im)mobility has made considerable progress in the last decade. However, most attention is given to migration rather than understanding immobility, where human-centered perspectives are scarce and various regions remain critically understudied. This paper seeks to address these deficits. Methodologically based on 75 qualitative in-depth interviews and 8 focus group sessions with rural residents around desiccating Lake Urmia (Iran), the study takes individual perceptions of environmental degradation and lived experiences of immobility as its fundamental starting point. It investigates what (in)tangible losses occur and analyses what matters most in shaping the aspirations and capabilities to migrate or stay. The findings provide unique empirical evidence of the multifaceted dimensions along the spectrum of immobility, moving beyond the prevailing binary views of voluntary immobility and trapped populations. A key finding of this study is the elucidation of 'ambivalent immobility', comprising individuals whose (im)mobility aspirations are complex and contradictory: they want to stay, but also leave, constantly weighing their growing local dissatisfaction against their attachments to place and the psychological/economic costs of migration. Another novel contribution concerns 'precarious immobility', expanding our knowledge of how individuals understand themselves as trapped. Grounded in capability constraints and emotional distress exacerbated by environmental change, individuals from this group did not voice any (im)mobility aspirations. This distinguished them from the involuntary or acquiescent immobile residents in the study, who despite capability constraints either aspired to migrate or expressed a preference to stay. Thus, this paper highlights the complexity of aspirations in contexts of environmental degradation and underscores the need for more qualitative research to complement quantitative efforts to foster a more nuanced understanding of the diverse causes, dimensions, and consequences of immobility. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We develop the new concept of ambient vulnerability. • We frame ambient vulnerabilities as those in our immediate, surrounding environment. • We argue that unequal power relations are embedded within the ambient environment. • We illustrate how ambient vulnerabilities can accumulate, intensifying one another. In this paper we introduce the concept of ambient vulnerability. Ambience concerns the overlapping and shifting material forms that constitute a person's surroundings – including (but not limited to) air quality, flow, temperature, humidity, noise and light – that contribute to their health, wellbeing and (dis)comfort. Building on a growing movement across a range of disciplines towards the study of socialmaterial relations, we suggest that ambience is an important approach for critically understanding the complex interconnections among nature, society, and technology in the production of lived ecologies. The vulnerability framing locates our expressly political understanding of ambience, reflecting and reinforcing social inequalities. Moreover, different types of vulnerability across the dimensions of the ambient environment are interdependent and accumulate, often intensifying one another. We delineate some of the key features of ambient vulnerability, specifically: cumulative impacts; permeability; unevenness; phenomenological differentiation; and multiple temporalities. The paper shows how ambient environments are shifting and complex, a turbulent milieu of contextual factors, but they are essential to our understanding of social and ecological vulnerability in the 21st century. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• 'Paper transitions' do not capture the intricacies of GEST. • In ESM, geopolitics is often treated as a barrier to meeting the Paris Agreement. • Geopolitics has a dual quality of both accelerating and hindering GEST. • Jointly, geopolitics and ESM better capture the global energy system's future. • Interdisciplinary approaches should be prioritised in global energy scenarios. The ongoing Global Energy System Transformation (GEST) has attracted the attention of multiple academic disciplines and practitioners, approaching the process with different analytical and conceptual tools. We explore the 'integration gap' that exists between, on the one hand, Energy System Modelling and the stylised scenarios they use, and on the other, energy geopolitics. We consider how these approaches can complement each other to further our understanding of the global energy system's future. Using a novel qualitative analytical framework, we review the extent to which a range of state-of-the-art global energy scenarios capture and reflect key issues in energy geopolitics in their narratives and model implementation. We find that few scenarios consider geopolitics in any depth. Those that do often treat it as a barrier to decarbonisation efforts that are aligned with the climate objectives of the Paris Agreement. Normative, Paris-aligned scenarios describe smooth processes of change where cooperation and coordination between countries are assumed and where geopolitics is often completely absent. Our findings emphasise the need for a more intricate understanding of the difference between 'paper transitions' and the real-world messiness and complexities of GEST, where geopolitics has a dual quality of simultaneously accelerating and hindering the transformation process. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• This paper identifies the effect of extreme temperatures on labor wage. • Temperature and labor wage exhibit an inverted U-shaped relationship. • Extreme cold temperatures lower labor wage by reducing the average wages. • High temperatures primarily reduce labor wage by decreasing employee numbers. Labor wage is a common focus of welfare economics and public policy, but little is known about its response to climate factors. With random year-to-year variation in temperature based on county-level data while using comprehensive and nationwide manufacturing data in China, this paper identifies the effect of extreme temperatures on firm-level labor wage. The result shows an inverted U-shape relationship between temperature and firm-level labor wage. We find that extremely high and low temperatures affect labor wage through different channels. Specifically, extremely cold temperatures lower labor wage by reducing the average wage from the intensive margin, whereas the negative impact of high temperatures on labor wage is mainly driven by the decrease in the number of employees from the extensive margin aspect. The temperature effect is more pronounced for labor-intensive firms, firms with employees with lower education levels, and low-tech firms. Areas with a hot climate are more sensitive to extremely cold temperatures but are not affected by extremely high temperatures because of the adaptation to climate change. We also find that the high-temperature subsidy policy has not achieved the expected goal of protecting workers' welfare during this period. Our results suggest that China should raise public awareness of the danger of extreme temperatures and take various adaptive measures to deal with extreme temperatures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A dominant cattle-based pathway characterises the Nicaraguan agrarian frontier. • Agrarian diagnoses unveils techno-economic conditions that shape dominant pathways. • Q-Method categorises four different perspectives on territorial pathways. • Alignment of practices and values towards technification reinforce dominant pathways. • Bottom-up actor coalitions could challenge underlying power structures and discourses. In many places around the world, the continuing expansion of agricultural land into forested areas is a context which urgently needs transformative change towards more sustainable pathways. Defining and implementing such transformations requires critical reflection to avoid reproducing business-as-usual practices. Transformative alternatives need to be capable of challenging detrimental power structures underlying social injustices and environmental degradation. Implementing such alternatives therefore needs a deeper and plural understanding of the historical processes underpinning the interrelation between social and environmental dynamics. In this paper we focus on the northeastern Nicaraguan agricultural frontier to analyze the historical emergence and consequences of a dominant cattle-based territorial pathway and to unveil local actors' practices and perspectives on possible transformative change. We thereby aim to enrich the debates on Transformations to Sustainability and the identification of alternatives capable of challenging hegemonic dynamics. Our methodological contribution lies in adopting an original mixed-methods strategy based on the joint use of agrarian diagnoses and Q-method. First, our results provide an in-depth understanding of the historical evolution of agricultural practices and processes of social differentiation, and how these processes relate to techno-economic conditions influencing farmers' strategies. Second, we identify four perspectives within a specific network of actors regarding the processes of social-environmental change and analyze the perceived opportunities and limitations of actual and imagined alternatives. Based on these insights, we show that certain alignment of practices and motivations generally reinforces the dominant cattle-based territorial pathway. We also indicate that the most commonly promoted alternative strategies (often by external organizations) tend to reinforce the incumbent pathway rather than addressing the related social and environmental concerns. Yet, we also identified a subaltern niche of perspectives and practices from which a bottom-up actor coalition could emerge, addressing power imbalances and re-assembling ideas and practices towards transformative change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Little is known about the level of climate change to which societies can adapt to. • Limits to adaptation are more likely to be reached and breached in the future. • Limits can be viewed from a justice informed perspective and coupled with modelling. • Assessing limits is central to national and international adaptation policymaking. Anthropogenic climate change is already causing dangerous and widespread disruptions in global ecological and social systems and affects the lives of billions of people around the world. Even with scaled-up risk management and adaptation, the limits of adaptation will often be reached. Currently, very little is known about the degree to which societies can adapt to climate change, and where and when limits to adaptation will be reached. In this paper, we conceptualize adaptation limits through a novel methodological framework, assess adaptation limits along adaptation pathways, and propose a research strategy for empirical and model-based limits assessments based on biophysical and socio-economic data. Assessing limits is central to national and international adaptation policymaking. More efficient adaptation can also help climate mitigation efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Archaeological research provides important insights into climate change adaptation. • Norse and Proto-Inuit cultures developed in different learning environments. • Different learning environments produce different responses to environmental change. • Archaeology offers evidence of multi-century information transmission and learning. Using archaeological, historical, and ethnographic analysis of Norse and Inuit toys and miniatures, this paper argues that legacies of childhood learning can create limits to climatic change adaptation and provide lessons from the past relevant today. In Medieval Greenland, Norse children played with objects that would have familiarised them with the expected norms and behaviours of farming, household activities, sailing and conflict, but not with hunting, which was a key omission given the fundamental importance of wild resources to successful climatic adaptation in Greenland after the climate shocks of the mid-13th century. The restricted range of toys combined with an instructional form of learning suggests a high degree of path dependence that limited adaptation to climatic change, and we know the Norse settlement ended with the conjunctures of the 15th century that included climatic change. Inuit children, by contrast, learnt highly adapted behaviours and technologies through objects that taught locally tuned hunting skills. Inuit approaches that prioritised unstructured learning time aided the development of creative skills and problem-solving capabilities, and the Inuit successfully navigated the climatic changes of the Little Ice Age in Greenland. This insight from the past has implications for our approaches to childhood learning in the 21st century and the unfolding climate crisis. Innovative approaches to childhood teaching and learning in the context of climate change adaptation could provide effective solutions, on a timescale commensurate with that of projected climate impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Empirical insights in social tipping dynamics. • Incremental tipping in coal region. • Narrative divergence indicating a social tipping point in cities. • Study offering future considerations for social tipping point research. A rapid and full decarbonisation of both energy and industry is essential to meet the targets in the Paris agreement, which brings coal- and carbon-intensive regions under significant pressure. Some regions have advanced in their transition and can provide insights in the system change processes. In this paper, we investigate the socio-economic transition processes of Essen and Duisburg as part of the wider structural change in the Ruhr Region/ Germany. We explore causes and effects of their trajectories in the last 30 + years and identify differences in outcome as a function of the interventions and/or contextual differences, while investigating whether either city crossed a tipping point in their transition process (yet). Therefore, we specifically evaluate the cities' development trajectories by seeking evidence for "no", "incremental" or "radical or tipping" changes in sets of qualitative and quantitative indicators. Our analysis shows that both cities experienced incremental changes in their demographic, economic and political trajectories but we found no evidence for either city to have crossed a tipping point in their transition process yet. However, distinct developments in the cities' policy narratives and visions indicate qualitative changes while putting them on different development trajectories potentially leading to tipping points in the future. Our study shows that the sequence of interventions and timing are important factors for the trajectory of a region determining the quality of societal change. It also suggests that radical change and tipping are the exception rather than the rule, especially in the highly complex social systems of cities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Green Infrastructures for flood protection are examined through Earth Observations. • Extreme rainfalls negatively impact nighttime lights in Latin American cities. • A greener city land cover can significantly reduce these adverse impacts. • The benefits of a greener land cover in terms of avoided losses are quantified. Latin American cities are increasingly impacted by floods and this trend is likely to be further exacerbated under the combined effects of climate change and urbanisation. To reduce urban flood risk, green infrastructure and the ability to preserve and rehabilitate green spaces is often mentioned as an option to improve the hydraulic response of cities. Yet, little empirical evidence exists about the degree to which a greener city land cover can reduce the impacts of extreme rainfall on urban economic activity. Using earth observations from 630 cities across Latin America, this paper shows that extreme rainfall has a negative impact on urban economic activity, as proxied by cities' night lights. Importantly, it finds that this negative impact diminishes as city's land cover becomes greener: for cities where dense vegetation represents more than 20 % of total city area, the marginal impact of extreme rainfall is broadly halved vis-a-vis cities below this threshold. A counterfactual analysis for the year 2015 suggests that increasing the greenness of 25 % of the cities in our sample could have reduced losses by US$ 6,500 million -equivalent to a 19 % reduction of total estimated losses. These results evidence the benefits that a greener city land cover that makes room for green infrastructure can provide to adapt to more erratic rainfall patterns. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We analyze 12,000 parcels in the Brazilian Amazon and Cerrado biomes. • Scraped weekly, our data come from online advertisements of land sale offers. • Hedonic analysis reveals low net benefits from formal private property rights. • Environmental compliance with the Forest Code does not alter parcel prices. • Results highlight challenges to property entitlement and environmental compliance. Lack of property rights is associated with lower investment, development, and welfare. In the Brazilian Amazon, insecure property rights have historically led to civil conflicts and deforestation, which would be expected to provide incentives for landowners to seek formal title. In this paper, we construct a novel database of land prices in Brazil to measure the market value of formal title to land and compliance with environmental regulation. Using online advertisements of land sale offers scraped from a widely used seller's platform, we first estimate a hedonic model that regresses the last offer price on property attributes such as farm-level agricultural production, land characteristics, structure amenities, and capital equipment included in the offer, as well as spatial and temporal fixed effects. We use this hedonic model to examine how property rights and environmental compliance capitalize into land prices across the Amazon and Cerrado biomes. Our main results imply low net benefits from property rights and low net benefits from compliance with the central Brazilian regulation that aims to maintain forest cover, the Forest Code. Finally, we estimate a duration model that follows the sequence of weekly offers for a specific property until it sells. Our findings show that parcels compliant with the Forest Code sell 46 % faster in the Amazon, while entitled properties in the Cerrado sell 9 % faster, unless they are compliant with the Forest Code, which requires a substantial portion of the property to be under native vegetation cover. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Discourse structuration and institutionalization can identify dominant discourses. • Discourses in long-term projections from climate science frame climate action. • High degree of discourse hybridity in climate science, negotiations and commitments. • States strategically adopt hybrid discourses from climate science. Abstract This paper analyses climate science as a discourse to reveal how it enables and constrains climate change negotiations and action. Focusing on long-term outcomes projected in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change's Fifth Assessment Report and the World Bank's "Turn Down the Heat" reports, this paper examines processes of discourse structuration and institutionalization to identify the dominant discourses which frame climate action. We trace the dominant discourses identified in the scientific reports – Survivalism, Ecological Modernisation and Economic Rationalism – through the Paris Agreement and selected Leader Statements and Intended Nationally Determined Contributions from COP21. From the 24 states included in this analysis, Papua New Guinea (PNG) is developed as a case study to investigate the hybridity and institutionalization of discourses. Even though PNG's rhetoric and commitments at COP21 express Survivalism, the state's policy frameworks rarely move beyond solutions found in Economic Rationalism and Ecological Modernisation. This suggests that states strategically adopt hybrid discourses drawn from climate science in line with their positionality, political economy and interests. Understanding how discourses drawn from climate science manifest in national policies has significant implications not only for how science is communicated at the international level but also for understanding different state positions in the global climate governance regime. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Porous and politicized borders may play a role in mangrove dynamics in West Africa. • Need to examine temporal variation and sub-regional spatial variation. • Between 1988 and 2018, mangrove tree cover increased in The Gambia and Senegal. • However, between 1988 and 1999 mangrove tree cover decreased by −4.11% in Low Casamance (Senegal). • Large-scale and regional remote sensing observations operate in tension with local accounts. Abstract Existing studies of mangroves in Senegal and The Gambia have found net increases in mangrove tree cover at the national scale, but these do not accord with local accounts and explanations of loss. This paper utilizes remote sensing analysis and political ecology frameworks to assess local accounts of mangrove wood trafficking across the border between The Gambia and southern Senegal, which were encountered in conducting qualitative field research. The remote sensing results demonstrate overall increases in mangrove cover in The Gambia and in the Sine Saloum and Low Casamance estuaries in Senegal between 1988 and 2018, but also highlight greater declines in mangrove cover in Low Casamance in the 1990s—a period of heightened regional political conflict—and in particular areas of the estuary near the Gambian and Guinea-Bissauan borders. Focusing on political ecology's attention to multiple scales of analysis, this paper addresses divergent interpretations of mangrove changes in the region, and how local accounts of destruction may not be fully captured by the scale of observation and analysis in remote sensing. The paper argues for greater attention to spatial and temporal variation in studies of mangrove dynamics, and greater consideration for how these patterns may result from confluences of political, social, and natural factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Excessive anthropogenic nitrogen is a global environmental problem. • A patchwork of international treaties and institutions governs nitrogen. • Contrasting the nitrogen problem can pass through the definition of global targets. • Two governance options labelled as 'holistic' and 'origin-based' are investigated. • Evaluation is made according to seven criteria. Abstract The release of excessive anthropogenic nitrogen contributes to global climate change, biodiversity loss, and the degradation of ecosystem services. Despite being an urgent global problem, the excess nitrogen is not governed globally. This paper considers possible governance options for dealing with excessive nitrogen through target setting, which is an approach commonly adopted to address global environmental problems. The articulation of the nitrogen problem and the numerous international institutions dealing with it, provide evidence of a nitrogen regime characterised by limited coordination and targets covering sources and impacts only partially. This calls for improving the nitrogen governance in the direction of more integrated approaches at the global scale. In this vein, the paper investigates two opposite governance options – here labelled as 'holistic' and 'origin-based' – and evaluates them for their capability to define solutions and targets for human-induced nitrogen. From the analysis, it emerges that origin-based solutions can be preferable to holistic solutions as they can be more specific and potentially have greater immediate results. Independent from which governance arrangement is chosen, what matters most is the speed at which an arrangement can deploy solutions to combat (fast-growing) nitrogen pollution. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Common simplifications in transformation discourse can entrench unsustainability. • Acknowledgement of complex dimensionalities and temporalities is crucial. • Clear-cut dimensions of distinction before/after transformation cannot be assumed. • Transformations do not always unfold neatly and cumulatively in a given direction. • Examples from Kenya (cities) and the UK (energy) are discussed. Through interlinked theoretical and empirical analysis, this paper explores some important but neglected questions concerning efforts to achieve sustainability. To what extents do currently dominant forms of academic study and policy visions in this field, satisfactorily address the full political depth and scope of vital complexities in pathways for emerging social transformations? Are there dangers that common simplifications in mainstream ways of thinking about transformation, inadvertently help invisibly to reproduce entrenched patterns of privilege and power that drive focal problems of unsustainability? In particular, does a ' monothetic ' focus on circumscribed sites or sectoral formations with notionally few clear-cut dimensions of distinction before and after, risk missing more multiple and messy ' polythetic ' dimensionalities in which power and privilege can hide? What are the implications of common assumptions that pathways for change proceed ' monotonically ' – neatly and cumulatively in a particular direction, if real world transformations actually unfold according to more plural, undulating and unruly ' non-monotonic ' temporalities? In order to investigate these questions, the paper employs the concept of sociotechnical imaginaries to explore the constituting dimensions of contrasting understandings of 'urban transformations' in Kenya and 'the nuclear renaissance' in the UK. Q method and in-depth interpretive policy analysis are used to test patterns in relationships between imagined transformations and their unfoldings over time. The findings suggest that current mainstream approaches may indeed unduly simplify vital complexities in the ways these political dynamics play out – with potentially important practical implications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Nature Futures Framework is a heiristic tool for creating positive futures for nature and people. • Nature Futures scenarios explore a mix of policies that progresses the world towards positive futures. • Reflecting diverse values and worldviews helps identify context-relevant interventions. • Mutually reinforcing positive social-ecological feedbacks can accelerate transformation pathways. • Indicators representing diverse values of nature build comprehensive evidence bases for policy. The Nature Futures Framework (NFF) is a heuristic tool for co-creating positive futures for nature and people. It seeks to open up a diversity of futures through mainly three value perspectives on nature – Nature for Nature, Nature for Society, and Nature as Culture. This paper describes how the NFF can be applied in modelling to support decision-making. First, we describe key considerations for the NFF in developing qualitative and quantitative scenarios: i) multiple value perspectives on nature as a state space where pathways improving nature toward a frontier can be represented, ii) mutually reinforcing key feedbacks of social-ecological systems that are important for nature conservation and human wellbeing, iii) indicators of multiple knowledge systems describing the evolution of complex social-ecological dynamics. We then present three approaches to modelling Nature Futures scenarios in the review, screening, and design phases of policy processes. This paper seeks to facilitate the integration of relational values of nature in models and strengthen modelled linkages across biodiversity, nature's contributions to people, and quality of life. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• On paper Zimbabwe has promising targets of reducing emissions targets by 2030. • Renewable energy policy for mandatory fuel blending, renewable energy and electric cars on course for decarbonization. • Lack of policy harmonisation results in policy conflicts and contradictions. • Establishment of national climate financing mechanisms enables reaching 2030 reduction targets. Zimbabwe intends to build resilience mechanisms against climate change while at the same time ensuring sustainable development in recognition of its climate change vulnerability and national circumstances, in line with the demands of the Paris Agreement of reducing emissions by 2030. The study examined the consistency of government policies in reducing emissions by 1278GgCO 2 by 2030. The study reviewed government policies and environmental projects intended at reducing carbon emissions. The results indicated that, on paper, the government has promising targets; but in reality, there are inconsistencies indicating the release of more greenhouse gases into the atmosphere. The inconsistencies include the commissioned Hwange thermal power station and fossil fuel-powered locomotives. The study found that there is strategic coherence between policy objectives, aimed at building resilient and low-carbon human settlement, and objectives of international policies such as the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, Paris Agreement and SENDAI Framework. The compulsory mixing of petrol and ethanol and the introduction of electric cars in the transportation sector demonstrated the limited but commendable efforts by the government in embracing renewable energy to reduce carbon emissions. The study established that poor policy implementation and lack of policy harmonisation have led to the failure of the Zimbabwean government to have policy consistency in terms of the decarbonisation roadmap resulting in policy conflicts and contradictions. An example of policy duplication is in, the Environmental Management Act and Forestry Act which can have sections dealing with climate change harmonised into the Climate Change Policy. The study recommends that the government establishes a National Climate Financing mechanism for cleaner technologies and practices to reduce emissions by 2030. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A rapid-assessment tool to support plastic pollution policy is presented. • Provides plastic waste flow analysis and visualization of policy instrument impacts. • Suitable for use in countries where data, technical and human capacity is limited. • Motivated Maldives Government to announce ambitious plastic phase out strategy. • Collaborative approach identified policies to achieve 85% less plastic pollution. Governments are increasingly supporting initiatives to address plastic pollution, but efforts are largely opportunistic or driven by national socio-political priorities. There is an urgent need to move away from piecemeal single product instruments (e.g. single use plastic bag taxes or plastic straw bans) to deliver system-wide strategies that minimise the most pervasive sources of plastic pollution. Developing a common understanding of a jurisdiction's plastic waste stream and the solutions available to decision-makers is vital to build consensus across stakeholders and to align on an evidence-based portfolio of priority instruments. This paper presents the Plastic Drawdown framework as a boundary-spanning tool to quickly create a coherent, relevant, and credible analysis and visualisation for stakeholders of plastic waste, leakage hotspots and minimisation opportunities. Using a new plastic waste modelling framework with a consultative structure, Plastic Drawdown explores plastic waste and leakage over a ten-year period and assesses impacts of policy instruments on this projection. Plastic Drawdown is adaptable to the data poor environment typical of many countries and designed as a rapid assessment tool to support the decision making of governments operating in a highly resource-constrained context. The Maldives is used as a case study to show the utility of the tool, where it highlighted strategies with the potential to reduce leakage of plastic waste into the marine environment by up to 85% by 2030. Plastic Drawdown built the case for phasing out single-use plastic waste across the Maldives and supported the Government's decision to set ambitious targets, as announced at the United Nations General Assembly in 2019. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Discusses normative and political dimensions of sustainability research. • Based on a survey among researchers engaged in Future Earth. • Distinguishes four different perspectives on transformative research. • Identifies tensions within and between perspectives. • Argues for explicitly addressing value and power in sustainability research. Abstract Global change and sustainability research increasingly focusses on informing and shaping societal transformations towards more sustainable futures. Doing so, researchers encounter the deeply political and normative dimensions of sustainability problems and potential solutions. This raises questions about the value-dimensions of science itself, as well as the appropriate relationship between science and politics. In this paper, these normative and political dimensions of sustainability research are explored based on a literature review and survey. The survey was completed by 284 researchers participating in the international research platform Future Earth: Research for Global Sustainability. The analysis of survey data reveals that sustainability researchers generally acknowledge the value-laden and political nature of their work, yet perspectives on what this means and how to deal with such dimensions vary. Four groups of respondents are distinguished and classified by the following broad narratives: transformative research as speaking truth to power, transformative research as political act, responsibility for rigorous science, and humility on solutions potential. Several tensions within and between these perspectives are identified, pertaining to the role of sustainability researchers in supporting societal transformations, the possibility and desirability of scientific independence and impartiality, and the appropriate relationship between science and politics. The paper concludes by pointing to the need for more explicit engagement with the normative and political dimensions of sustainability research. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Smart Earth is an innovative approach to environmental monitoring. • Smart Earth combines conventional monitoring with ICT and the Internet of Things. • This paper presents a meta-review of 3187 articles over the period 1997 to 2017. • Implications for environmental governance include real-time regulation; enhanced predictive management; and citizen sensing. Abstract Environmental governance has the potential to be significantly transformed by Smart Earth technologies, which deploy enhanced environmental monitoring via combinations of information and communication technologies (ICT), conventional monitoring technologies (e.g. remote sensing), and Internet of Things (IoT) applications (e.g. Environmental Sensor Networks (ESNs)). This paper presents a systematic meta-review of Smart Earth scholarship, focusing our analysis on the potential implications and pitfalls of Smart Earth technologies for environmental governance. We present a meta-review of academic research on Smart Earth, covering 3187 across the full range of academic disciplines from 1997 to 2017, ranging from ecological informatics to the digital humanities. We then offer a critical perspective on potential pathways for evolution in environmental governance frameworks, exploring five key Smart Earth issues relevant to environmental governance: data; real-time regulation; predictive management; open source; and citizen sensing. We conclude by offering suggestions for future research directions and trans-disciplinary conversations about environmental governance in a Smart Earth world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • Policy responses to (un)sustainable consumption have overlooked contextual drivers of action. • A novel contextual, human-centred approach to studying dynamics in consumption is presented. • A web of contextual drivers, incl. technology, economics and planning policies, shape action. • Patterns of social differentiation in the experience of socio-technical change are identified. • Policies responses require a greater challenge to social contexts than is currently recognised. Abstract Understanding how social change has intersected with transformations in key resource-intensive domestic consumption practices that comprise part of the fabric and experience of daily living is of central relevance to questions of sustainable development. Despite recent advances in contextual approaches to consumption, little is known about how wider socio-technical transitions have been experienced in the context of lived lives and everyday performances. As a result, sustainable development policies have been largely removed from the lived challenges and experiences people face in their daily lives. This paper explores the value of a human-centred, contextual approach to energy transitions research for revealing the intersections of lives, practices and contexts in energy systems change. Investigating the question of how everyday practices have intersected with processes of social-technical change, it reports on findings from a recent Irish-based qualitative biographic investigation of dynamics in domestic consumption. Analysis reveals that a complex web of contextual processes, including technological change, economic transitions and planning policies, have shaped consumption in the home. Furthermore, social differentiation in the lived experience of socio-technical change along dimensions of gender, social class and geography was observed. The paper concludes with reflections on the international relevance and implications of these findings for sustainable development policy, suggesting sustainable consumption requires a much more fundamental challenge to social contexts than is recognised by dominant approaches. Here it is argued that human-centred, contextual approaches to sustainability transitions that consider social differentiation in complex lived experiences are necessary to design more integrated and resilient energy futures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Partnerships emerge as part of an environmental governance paradigm shift towards less hierarchical, more collaborative, and non-regulative steering arrangements. This paper examines the prevalence of partnerships in environmental governance on an urban level in a semi-authoritarian setting, by exploring climate initiatives in cities in China. The paper presents exploratory qualitative analysis of governance in urban China through analysis of a database of 150 climate initiatives in 15 cities, which are seen at the forefront of climate protection. The analysis suggests that climate partnerships are used as a governance strategy in China. Moreover, partnerships perform a range of essential governance functions, from rule-setting and provision of public infrastructure and services, to supporting technology development and low carbon demonstration projects. The results indicate that partnerships can facilitate local climate action by creating access to resources, such as information, technology, and funding, as well as contribute to introduction of emission reduction technology and new policy approaches. However, the inclusion of non-state actors in the formulation and delivery of climate mitigation projects redefines the lines of authority over public issues. This draws attention to two key governance challenges in the context of a comparatively state-controlled, top-down political system: skewed participation and lack of deliberative opportunities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The relationship between rainfall variability and economic growth is complex, and tends to be significant in economies like India where agriculture plays a major role in economic output and food security. This paper seeks to provide insight into this relationship using Indian state-level economic and rainfall data from 1961 to 2012. We examine all 15 Indian states with populations exceeding 20m as of 2000, totalling 920m people, about 12% of the global population. Physical and human geography vary greatly between, and even within, these states, reflecting the global range of water security challenges and providing an analogue for a range of global economic development and environmental conditions. We identify three patterns of interdependence between rainfall variability and economic growth: i) Continuous Correlation of rainfall and economic growth rates, ii) Decayed Correlation from a significant to an insignificant relationship, and iii) Never Correlated i.e. no significant observable correlation between rainfall and growth. Sensitivity to rainfall variability is somewhat less in wetter states. Investment in irrigation infrastructure has helped states to reduce their economic sensitivity to rainfall variability, with three of the four states that have Decayed Correlation of growth with rainfall having the highest percentage expansion in irrigated areas of the 15 states. Greater use of groundwater supplies (rather than surface water) does not, however, appear to influence the sensitivity of economic growth to rainfall variability. The relationship between rainfall-growth correlation and long term income is complex; states which are correlated generally appear to be growing faster than states which are not correlated, but that growth is occurring from a lower per capita income level. Finally, confirming national trends for India, the paper does not find that economic diversification away from agriculture has reduced economic sensitivity to rainfall variability. The observation that growth in economically-diversified states can still be dependent on rainfall invites further research into the ways in which rainfall either directly, or through other hydro-climatic variables, influences the general economy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The contemporary debate considering the use of natural resources in economic growth centres around the concept of ‘decoupling’ driven through improvements in resource efficiency. Many studies extrapolate future demand from a short time series of previous years. However, we believe there should be greater attention on the underlying demand assumptions and the possibility of long-term changes. Accordingly, this paper is concerned with a potential saturation in material use as a result of countries moving through stages of development over decades from early industrialisation, over mass production and into a mature stage. An observation of such saturation is relevant for global environmental change as future demand for resources could be lower than currently expected, leading to less associated environmental pressures. In particular, emerging economies are undergoing changing growth patterns, and their future resource use may be significantly lower than contemporary analysis suggests. This paper combines the analytical strands of resource economics and material flow analysis. It investigates both material-specific demand and stock build-up trends over an extended time horizon of a century. Four materials (steel, cement, aluminium and copper) are analysed applying an indicator called ‘Apparent Domestic Consumption’ (ADC) and using international trade data for four industrialised countries (Germany, Japan, UK, USA) together with China as the most preeminent emerging economy. Our results confirm the occurrence of a saturation effect for most materials considered. While the evidence is strong for the per capita apparent consumption of steel, copper and cement in the four industrialised countries, it is somewhat weaker for aluminium. Also, such saturation in material use can start at different income levels, with the saturation beginning to occur relatively early for steel and cement ($12,000 GDP/capita) and later for copper ($20,000 GDP/capita). The results suggest a time gap of around thirty+ years from the take-off of large-scale adoption of one type of material and any saturation occurring. We also shed light on the build-up of stocks in the economy, where our findings suggest there is a delayed saturation of at least twenty years compared to apparent consumption depending on the lifetimes of capital goods. With regard to China, a demand saturation for steel and copper has already started to occur, and our analysis suggests such saturation will soon take place for cement. These findings provide a more moderate outlook on China’s future material demand compared to an extrapolation of recent dynamics. Our new insights on the nexus between economic growth, development stages and the use of natural resources have implications for the decoupling debate and for investments into commodities. From a wider environmental policy perspective, one may expect China and other emerging economies to achieve a saturation effect soon and therefore also peak their industrial emissions of greenhouse gases, supporting the nationally determined contribution (NDC) to the Paris Agreement on Climate Change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Participatory Guarantee Systems provide rich bundles of rights for label management. • Inclusive common property regimes enhance trust and knowledge sharing among actors. • Polycentric governance and producer empowerment sustain integrity of organic labels. • Decentralized negotiation of standards adapts production rules to local conditions. • Public recognition and local autonomy of participatory certification need balance. Participatory Guarantee Systems (PGS) are certification schemes, which offer a guarantee that labelled products comply with a related quality standard. They differ from the prevailing Third-Party Certification (TPC) because in a PGS, food system stakeholders are involved in the decision to award a label. With TPC, a single certification body takes the decision and certification costs may be too high to be borne by smallholder producers. According to PGS guidelines (IFOAM, 2019), shared rights to actively contribute to the inspections, participate in exclusion decisions for certification and to manage the contents of the standard are key features of a PGS. Producers have significantly more rights on the label in a PGS than in TPC. Each PGS has a specific governance structure, which reflects how they have adapted to their respective institutional environments. In this paper, we compare the distribution of power in TPC for the European organic label and four PGS, Nature & Progrès (N&P) in France; Ecovida Agroecology Network (EAN) in Brazil; Certified Naturally Grown (CNG) in the US; and Kilimo Hai (KH) in Tanzania. Drawing on the bundle of rights concept developed by Schlager and Ostrom (1992) , we discuss how the common property regimes in PGS have potential for bridging the gap between organic labels and their users. We describe each governance structure, by drawing on data from in-depth interviews with key informants and on the analysis of framework documents and regulatory texts specific to each initiative. We show that the distribution of stakeholders' rights varies considerably between the different PGS. Similar to the commons, these differences can impact the label's legitimacy, the PGS members' involvement and mobilization, and the effectiveness of the rules relating to implementation and compliance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• A CGE model elaborately depicting six CCS technologies was developed. • Impacts of four CCS incentive scenarios on decarbonization pathways were simulated. • CCS can sequester 960 ∼ 1,604 MtCO 2 annually in China by 2060 with policy incentives. • CCS incentives can reduce China's future primary energy demand by 7.7 ∼ 17.4 %. • CCS incentives can increase GDP by 5.64 ∼ 6.59 % compared to no policy scenario. Carbon capture and storage (CCS) technology, considered as a pivotal tool in mitigating climate change within the fossil energy system, particularly in China, has experienced slower development than expected. The exploration of direct incentive policies to facilitate its growth remains relatively underdeveloped. This study developed a hybrid dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model to simulate the substantial impacts of CCS incentive policies on China within the context of carbon neutrality target. Two potential incentive policies, carbon emission trading system (ETS) and 45Q tax credit, were simulated, with different sectoral coverage. The results indicate that CCS technologies can reduce carbon emissions by 960 ∼ 1,604 MtCO 2 annually by 2060 through the strategic implementation of these incentive policies. The 45Q tax credit demonstrates its effectiveness in promoting early-stage research and development (R&D) and demonstration of CCS, while the ETS policy facilitates the commercial development of CCS in the later stage of development. By 2060, the implementation of CCS incentive policies could potentially result in 7.7 ∼ 17.4 % reduction in China's primary energy consumption, 71.2 ∼ 82.7 % decrease in the carbon price of ETS and 5.64 ∼ 6.59 % increase in the GDP compared with the no-policy scenario. In addition, the sectoral output in various sectors and the welfare of urban and rural households also increase. This paper provides an important reference for the realization of China's carbon neutrality goal and the model framework can be applied to other countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Tree age is introduced for global and national oil palm suitability assessment. • Other regions have lower proportion of suitable area than Southeast Asia. • Differences in industrial and smallholder oil palm are less obvious than expected. • Market factors and local policies play important role in oil palm production. Oil palm is the dominant global oil crop due to its high productivity and diversified usage in many sectors. Since the late 20th century, oil palm cultivations proliferated in Southeast Asia, West Africa, and Latin America. However, global market factors, different national and regional policies, and smallholder versus commercial planting regimes in different areas lead to significant differences in economic benefits and environmental problems from deforestation and loss of biodiversity. We investigated changes in global and national distributions against suitability and indices of tree age distribution change for industrial oil palm (IOP) and smallholder oil palm (SOP). Spatial and temporal change analyses show that: i) For most tree ages, the proportion of global oil palm planting in suitable areas was less than 50%, but the impact of temporal regimes, from possible market factors and local policies, on planting structure should not be neglected; ii) Central America, South America, and West Africa were less suitable for oil palm cultivation compared to Southeast Asia. While, as two dominant oil palm planting countries, Indonesia and Malaysia had relatively low planting suitability, with 39.23% of Indonesia's IOP, 44.85% of Indonesia's SOP, 30.90% of Malaysia's IOP and 18.77% of Malaysia's SOP in highly and most suitable intervals; iii) There exist clear differences between IOP and SOP in terms of suitability, planting structure and spatial expansion patterns; iv) Hysteresis effect exists between latecomers (countries in West Africa and Latin America) and forerunner (Indonesia and Malaysia) in terms of spatial expansion; v) The spatial expansion patterns of oil palm planting centers have obvious scale effects for both IOP and SOP, with clear inter-country and intra-country differences. This paper reinterprets the global distribution of tree age and spatial expansion pattern and recommends scientific strategies to guide site selection and planting structure that enable oil palm cultivation for sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

[Display omitted] • Arguments for the importance of diversity within scenario sets are developed. • The diversity of six global scenario sets is assessed. • Results show relatively good performance with regards to scenario set diversity. • There is a trade-off between covering the scenario space and redundancy. Scenario development and analysis is an important methodological approach in the assessment of global environmental change. Scenarios are used to assess climate change and its impacts on societies, economies, and ecosystems, and identify, test, and improve policy responses to manage the negative consequences of a changing environment. Evaluation of scenarios, especially global scenarios widely used in the climate research and policy community, is therefore urgently needed. While the quality and usefulness of individual scenarios have been extensively examined through a wide array of criteria, standards for systematic evaluation of scenario sets are only emerging. Scenario diversity (i.e., diversity between individual scenarios in a set) has been advanced as a measure to assess the quality of global scenario sets. In this paper, we use scenario diversity analysis, a systematic and transparent quantitative method, to examine six major global scenario sets with regards to scenario set diversity. Results show that the assessed scenario sets show relatively good performance with regards to scenario set diversity. However, the use of classic methods for building scenario architectures and the number of scenarios included in a set raise important questions about the potential trade-offs between covering a bigger space of futures possibilities and adding redundancy to the scenario set. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the conflict over shale gas exploration in Lancashire where the company Cuadrilla is preparing to horizontally drill and hydraulically fracture the first shale gas wells in England. At present, this is the only location in Europe where new commercial exploration for shale gas is underway, thus the outcome has wider significance. The initial planning applications were refused by Lancashire County Council in June 2015. The decisions were then appealed by Cuadrilla and there was a public enquiry in February and March of 2016. On 6 October 2016, the central Government over-turned the initial decisions at one site and gave Cuadrilla more time to address traffic concerns at the other. The paper uses the public enquiry to map the contours of the shale gas conflict. It is divided into three sections. The first explores public attitudes towards shale gas development in the UK and reveals growing public awareness and increasing opposition. The second presents the conceptual frame for the analysis, which includes both a critical assessment of the social licence to operate (SLO) and an introduction to a social, actuarial, and political risk and licensing model (SAP Model). The third deploys the SAP model to analyse the public enquiry. The model explains how Cuadrilla is able drill despite the absence of both a local political and social licence to operate. It is concluded that unless the industry and the government can address growing public concerns about shale gas development, continuing conflict could constrain commercial development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• The Slippery Slope is a key concern of stratospheric aerosol injection research. • However, how the Slippery Slope would occur is understudied. • This paper provides a typology of Slippery Slopes. • Stratospheric aerosol injection research could spark slippery slopes to deployment. • Short-term creation of lock-ins are preferable to unchecked feedback loops. Climate engineering research attracts Slippery Slope concerns – the idea that initial research will inevitably lead to inappropriate deployment. Some have dismissed it as an unrealistic, unproductive critique. However, extant climate engineering discussions of the Slippery Slope discuss an unorganised set of different causal mechanisms with little detail. These range from technological cost reduction, to the creation of special interest lobby groups, to normalisation across society and policymakers. Dismissing the Slippery Slope may be premature if its causal nature is unclear, especially given the potentially high impacts and controversy of global climate engineering deployment. Disaggregating and clarifying the Slippery Slope can reduce unnecessary ambiguity, promote productive debate, and highlight risks that require further attention. Drawing on previous Slippery Slope literature and mechanisms of change from range of disciplines, this paper creates a typology of Slippery Slopes for application to stratospheric aerosol injection and other emerging technologies. Initial research can lead to deployment by 1) sparking price-performance improvements and sunk cost biases, 2) contributing to normalisation and legitimisation, 3) altering power structures, 4) sparking hype, and 5) incrementally progressing development. These feedback loops may currently seem unlikely, but unforeseen dynamics could still trigger rapid development and implementation of stratospheric aerosol injection. Conversely, there is no guarantee one of these Slippery Slopes will occur. The point is that they could – the future is too uncertain to fully dismiss non-linear change, particularly for high impact and accessible technologies like stratospheric aerosol injection. This can provide direction and clarity for effective technology governance and Slippery Slope discussion. Furthermore, this typology differentiates the Slippery Slope from lock-in and highlights their interaction points. Slippery Slope dynamics are processes that can (but are not guaranteed to) lead to different types of lock-in. Lock-in is when a technology is entrenched in existing sociotechnical systems. Given the risks of unchecked undesired lock-in, lock-in is a state to be encouraged instead of avoided. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Long-term economic scenarios (up to 2100) are needed as a basis to explore possible different futures for major environmental challenges, including climate change. Given the high level of uncertainty involved, such scenarios would need to span a wide range of possible growth trajectories. The recently developed storylines of the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs) provide a basis for making such projections. This paper describes a consistent methodology to derive (per capita) GDP trend pathways on a country basis. The methodology is based on a convergence process and places emphasis on the key drivers of economic growth in the long run: population, total factor productivity, physical capital, employment and human capital, and energy and fossil fuel resources (specifically oil and gas). The paper uses this methodology to derive country-level economic growth projections for 184 countries. The paper also investigates the influence of short-term growth rate estimates on the long-term income levels in various countries. It does so by comparing long-term projections based on short-term forecasts from 2011 with the projections based on forecasts from 2013. This highlights the effects of the recent economic crisis and uncertainty in short term developments on longer term growth trends. The projections are subject to large uncertainties, particularly for the later decades, and disregard a wide range of country-specific drivers of economic growth that are outside the narrow economic framework, such as external shocks, governance barriers and feedbacks from environmental damage. Hence, they should be interpreted with sufficient care and not be treated as predictions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The United Nations’ REDD (reducing emissions from deforestation and forest degradation) mechanism has provoked sharply divergent assessments in the academic community. This paper employs Cultural Theory to investigate how a sample of scholars from different disciplinary backgrounds and ideological stances evaluate REDD, and the extent to which these sampled scholars reach out to other disciplines and ideologies to formulate REDD policy solutions. A sample of academic assessments of REDD from three groups of disciplines (ecological/political economics, environmental sciences, and anthropology) was analysed in terms of the implied ideological stance of the author (‘hierarchist,’ ‘individualist,’ and ‘egalitarian’) and the extent to which the author’s policy prescriptions offered concessions to ideological stances other than the authors own. Sampled authors from ecological/political economics and environmental sciences shared a hierarchist orientation, and were willing to make concessions to individualists but not to egalitarians. Sampled authors from anthropology shared an egalitarian orientation, and were unwilling to make significant concessions to any other ideological style. Disagreements on the issues of hegemony and eco-colonialism impeded the theoretically possible collaboration between disciplines in formulating suitably “clumsy” REDD policies that satisfy multiple value systems. This paper shows how Cultural Theory could be used as an effective heuristic device in policy-making processes for identifying some of the ideological divergences which underlie disagreements on REDD, and finding spaces for concession and collaboration on this and other hotly contested areas of environmental policy. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper presents a set of energy and resource intensive scenarios based on the concept of Shared Socio-Economic Pathways (SSPs). The scenario family is characterized by rapid and fossil-fueled development with high socio-economic challenges to mitigation and low socio-economic challenges to adaptation (SSP5). A special focus is placed on the SSP5 marker scenario developed by the REMIND-MAgPIE integrated assessment modeling framework. The SSP5 baseline scenarios exhibit very high levels of fossil fuel use, up to a doubling of global food demand, and up to a tripling of energy demand and greenhouse gas emissions over the course of the century, marking the upper end of the scenario literature in several dimensions. These scenarios are currently the only SSP scenarios that result in a radiative forcing pathway as high as the highest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP8.5). This paper further investigates the direct impact of mitigation policies on the SSP5 energy, land and emissions dynamics confirming high socio-economic challenges to mitigation in SSP5. Nonetheless, mitigation policies reaching climate forcing levels as low as in the lowest Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP2.6) are accessible in SSP5. The SSP5 scenarios presented in this paper aim to provide useful reference points for future climate change, climate impact, adaption and mitigation analysis, and broader questions of sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Current cross-sectional methodologies measuring climate change impacts assume that regions at the same latitude face a similar climate response and therefore have the same adaptive capacity. This paper proves that assumption to be erroneous in the European Union. It does so by ameliorating the Ricardian methodology by restricting which farmers (and therefore which adaptation options) are allowed in the dataset. In doing so, a comparative Ricardian methodology is suggested that makes it possible to examine, for the first time, how the climate responsiveness of a region changes if adaptive capacity changes. The paper combines climate, soil, geographic, socio-economic, and farm-level data in a linear mixed-effect model and examines whether Eastern and Western Europe have the same climate responses and how these responses change if regional adaptive capacity increases. The paper concludes that both regions currently have a significantly different climate response, but that if Eastern Europe were to implement the same adaptation options as Western Europe, it could avoid a large decrease in land value and even benefit from climate change depending on the climate scenario. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a significant emitter of greenhouse gases and a country rich in fossil fuels, Russia plays a crucial role in achieving a comprehensive solution to climate-related challenges. Yet, Russia's official position on climate change has varied considerably since the beginning of global negotiations, with the country playing everything from policy leader to laggard. While there are a number factors that shape domestic policy positions, this study offers a comprehensive investigation of newspaper coverage on climate change in Russia. How have Russian newspapers discussed the issue since the Yeltsin era? We approach this question by compiling the largest data set of Russian newspaper coverage to date, which includes 11,131 climate-related articles from 65 papers over a roughly 35 year period. After introducing a “computer assisted” approach to measure the core themes running through climate change coverage, we statistically evaluate the national- and newspaper-level factors associated with how coverage is framed, focusing attention on 23 high circulation papers over the period from 2000 to 2014. We find that national-level predictors—particularly economic conditions—are highly influential in determining whether climate change is covered and how the issue is framed, while paper-level factors such as the presence of an energy interest and ownership structure also have notable effects. Overall, this study offers a rich data set and useful methods to better understand the drivers of climate communication in Russia. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Large-scale land acquisitions (LSLAs) have become a major concern for land use sustainability at a global scale. A considerable body of case studies has shown that the livelihood outcomes of LSLAs vary, but the understanding of factors and processes that generate these livelihood outcomes remains controversial and fragmented in terms of cases, contexts, and normative orientations. Therefore, this study presents a meta-analysis of case studies and applies the archetypes approach developed in global change research to analyse the configurations of factors and processes that generate different livelihood outcomes in LSLA situations. The analysis is based on 44 systematically selected studies covering 66 cases in 21 countries in Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia, and Eastern Europe. The results show that LSLAs affect rural livelihoods through a small set of archetypical configurations. Adverse livelihood outcomes arise most frequently from processes of (1) enclosure of livelihood assets, (2) elite capture, (3) selective marginalisation of people already living in difficult conditions, and (4) polarisation of development discourses, and less frequently from (5) competitive exclusion, (6) agribusiness failure, and (7) transient jobs. The processes are activated in specific configurations of social-ecological factors. Moving beyond diagnosis, the paper identifies archetypical potentials for safeguarding or enhancing sustainable livelihoods in LSLA target regions at multiple levels of decision-making. Finally, we analyse how contextual factors modify these general insights. This paper helps to advance the archetypes methodology for use in global change research that aims at integral analysis of recurrent patterns expressed in local manifestations. The results can be used to better link local case studies with regional and global inventories of the global land rush. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Solutions to the climate crisis are not ahistorical. • Both social and technical processes explain their rise (or fall) on the agenda. • Thinking about ocean CDR closely co-evolved with scientific understandings of global climate change. • Ocean CDR methods have followed cycles of hype, controversy and disappointment. • Key sociotechnical configurations and narrative changes explain the new hype around ocean CDR. While the ocean has long been portrayed as a victim of climate change, threatened by ocean warming and acidification, it is now increasingly framed as a key solution to the climate crisis. In particular, the promising carbon sequestration potential of the ocean is being emphasised. In this paper, we seek to historicise the practices, discourses and actors that have constructed the ocean as a climate change solution space. We conceptualise the debate about the mitigation potential of the ocean as a contested site of governance, where varying actors form alliances and different sociotechnical narratives about climate action play out. Using an innovative quali-quantitative methodology which combines scientometrics with document analysis, observational fieldwork, and interviews, we outline three historical phases in the history of ocean carbon sequestration that follow recurring cycles of hype, controversy and disappointment. We argue that the most recent hype around ocean carbon sequestration was not triggered by a technological breakthrough or a reduction in scientific uncertainty, but by new socio-technical configurations and coalitions. We conclude by showing that how climate change solutions are put on the agenda and become legitimised is both a scientific and political process, linked to how science frames the climate crisis, and ultimately, its governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• I analyse FLEGT VPA's democratising agenda and civil society participation in Laos. • As well as governmentality exercised by the EU and its development agency. • Lao state showed 'counter-conduct' against independent from state civil society. • VPA's 'rendering technical' facilitated setting up of easily monitored CSOs. • EU's governmentality and the Lao counter-conduct are mutually co-constructive. This paper analyses the European Union's (EU's) democratising agenda within the frame of the EU's Forest Law Enforcement, Governance and Trade (FLEGT) Voluntary Partnership Agreement (VPA) in Laos. In particular, it focuses on the requirement for the participation of civil society organisations (CSOs) in the VPA and the Lao state actors' responses to this requirement. I frame the VPA's democratising agenda and its conditionality of civil society participation as acts of governmentality exercised by the EU in Laos. This EU governmentality is exercised through the EU and EU member states' funded development partner in the frame of their project supporting the FLEGT VPA process in Laos. The Lao government responses and strategies to the EU governmentality resulted on the one hand in the Lao state's governmentality towards domestic CSOs, and in counter-conduct (i.e. a subtle and sly resistance to some aspects of the VPA) on the other. First, by tracing the establishment of the Lao FLEGT Civil Society Organisations Network (FLEGT CSO Network), I highlight the trend of depoliticisation and rendering technical, where the EU-funded development partner, with full support and backing from the Lao state, trained the CSOs in various VPA and timber legality issues. In the training, the CSOs were given specific roles and tasks, building up their fields of expertise, and were integrated in the formal VPA organisational structures, which allowed for their scrutiny and tight survelience by the state. Second, I analyse the counter-conduct by the Lao government against a civil society that is independent from the state, which the government manifested through further disempowerment of CSOs and tightening of the CSO regulation shortly after the FLEGT CSO Network was established, while at the same time simulating democratisation by welcoming CSOs' participation in the VPA. Summoning CSOs as compliant actors and unpaid service providers working for and alongside the state was in part enabled by the VPA's own rendering technical approach. Hence, the EU's VPA governmentality and the Lao state counter-conduct mutually reinforced one another, even if their initial agendas around democratisation and CSO engagement in forest governance and the VPA diverged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• We conducted interviews with 35 experts involved in mCDR research and development. • Interviews revealed tensions regarding four themes. • Expert consensus on these tensions is unlikely, but they raise important questions. • Governance of mCDR would benefit from exploring these in expert and public fora. While research on marine carbon dioxide removal (mCDR) expands apace, significant unknowns persist regarding the risks and benefits of individual mCDR options. This paper analyses the assumptions and expectations that animate expert understandings of mCDR, with a focus on issues that are central to the responsible governance of this emerging field of climate action. Drawing upon interviews with experts involved in mCDR research projects both academic and entrepreneurial, we highlight four thematic tensions that orient their thinking but are often unstated or left implicit in scientific and technical assessments: (1) the relevance of 'naturalness' as a criterion of evaluation for mCDR approaches; (2) the perceived need to accelerate research and development activities via alternative paradigms of evidence-building; (3) a framing of mCDR as a form of waste management that will, in turn, generate new (and currently poorly understood) forms of environmental pollutants; and (4) a commitment to inclusive governance mixed with difficulty in identifying specific stakeholders or constituencies in mCDR interventions. Although expert consensus on these four issues is unlikely, we suggest ways of ensuring that consideration of these themes enriches debate on the responsible development of novel mCDR capabilities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Gene drives are a proposed method for large-scale in situ genetic engineering. • The technology could address core challenges of global sustainable development. • This paper analyses research collaboration and funding networks for gene drives. • Network analysis indicates lack of geographical and organizational diversity. • This raises legitimacy challenges for global gene drive research. Gene drives are a proposed biotechnological intervention that could grant unprecedented control over key challenges of global sustainable development by potentially providing effective countermeasures to invasive alien species, agricultural pests or disease vectors. Gene drives also raise complex biosafety challenges and face scrutiny due to an allegedly-outsized involvement of certain philanthropic- and military funders. Against this background, this text is the first to develop a systematic account of the organizational structure that underpins global gene drive research. Applying social network analysis to data on co-authorship and research funding, I show that global gene drive research has limited organizational and geographical diversity and is firmly dominated by elite US-based organizations, with organizations from developing countries either playing marginal roles or being excluded altogether. Additionally, a preliminary analysis of financial transfers suggests that an overwhelming share of global research funding passes from the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation to Imperial College London; and from the US National Institutes of Health to various first- and second-tier US research universities. Overall, the organizational structure implies a considerable legitimacy deficit in global scientific collaboration on a controversial novel biotechnology with significant biosafety risks yet potentially transformative impacts on key challenges of sustainable development. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• German agricultural policy is stabilised by a sociotechnical imaginary. • The imaginary is based on Germany's long-standing identity as an industrial country. • Agrarwende vision clashes with established sociotechnical imaginary of agriculture. • Tensions between the two are evident in policy style, expertise, and risk framing. Although much research recognises the importance of visions as key ingredients of transformations to sustainability, it remains unclear how and why some visions become collectively binding. This paper uses the lens of sociotechnical imaginaries, i.e., collectively shared, institutionally stabilised, and publicly performed visions of desirable futures, to analyse the so-called Agrarwende (agricultural transformation), a sustainability-oriented reform of German agriculture based on a vision of transformative change towards organic farming. Methodologically, the investigation draws on published historical and contemporary data sources for an in-depth case study of the Agrarwende using content analysis. It shows how a particular sociotechnical imaginary has shaped German agriculture for many decades and explores how three of its constitutive elements - its policy style, expertise, and risk framing – conflict with the vanguard vision of the Agrarwende. The findings suggest that these elements have reinforced one another in shaping the trajectory of the agricultural system, thus co-producing a strong socio-political order in favour of industrial agriculture at the expense of an alternative set of policies, expertise, and risk framing that supports organic agriculture. Taken together, the findings highlight how knowledge and politics shape debates and controversies about what is deemed a desirable future, what is at stake, and for whom. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Extreme temperatures lead to an increase in local fiscal pressure. • Areas with intensive agriculture and low power consumption are more sensitive. • Productivity, population mobility, and power supply are the main mechanisms. • PMC reform mitigated the fiscal revenue loss and increased fiscal expenditure. This paper investigates the impact of climate change on government fiscal pressure using local governments' fiscal data in China from 2000 to 2020. While previous studies have extensively explored the effects of climate change on individuals and economies, there has been limited research on the negative effects of climate change from a government fiscal perspective. Our study makes contributions by using county-level fiscal data in China, allowing for a detailed examination of the fiscal implications of weather extremes. Moreover, we comprehensively analyze the underlying mechanisms involving population mobility, industrial structure, and electricity consumption. The empirical results indicate that each additional day of extreme temperature in a year leads to a CNY 0.002 billion increase in the general public budget deficit, which is equivalent to 0.1093% of the local fiscal deficit. Furthermore, local governments heavily reliant on agriculture, experiencing low electricity consumption, and significant population outflows face even greater challenges. Notably, medical insurance and the "province-managing-county" reform program emerge as crucial mitigating factors against fiscal pressures. By providing a thorough assessment of climate change's fiscal impact on local governments, this research contributes to the theoretical foundation for governmental initiatives aimed at reducing carbon emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Paper visualizes the Aegean and Eastern Mediterranean network of Late Bronze Age. • Specific disruptions can collapse otherwise robust networks. • Network science mapped the cascading breakdown of the entire system. • Stable networks support prosperity but failure links can convey discord. As the world faces multiple crises, lessons from humanity's past can potentially suggest ways to decrease disruptions and increase societal resilience. From 1200 to 1100 BCE, several advanced societies in the Eastern Mediterranean suffered dramatic collapse. Though the causes of the Late Bronze Age Collapse are still debated, contributing factors may include a "perfect storm" of multiple stressors: social and economic upheaval, earthquake clusters, climate change, and others. We examined how collapse might have propagated through the societies' connections by modeling the Eastern Mediterranean Late Bronze Age trade and socio-political networks. Our model shows that the Late Bronze Age societies made a robust network, where any single node's collapse was insufficient to catalyze the regional collapse that historically transpired. However, modeled scenarios indicate that some paired node disruptions could cause cascading failure within the network. Subsequently, a holistic understanding of the region's network incentive structures and feedback loops can help societies anticipate compounding risk conditions that might lead to widespread collapse and allow them to take appropriate actions to mitigate or adapt societal dependencies. Such network analyses may be able to provide insight as to how we can prevent a collapse of socio-political, economic and trade networks similar to what occurred at the end of the Late Bronze Age. Though such data-intensive analytics were unavailable to these Bronze Age regions, modern society may be able to leverage historical lessons in order to foster improved robustness and resilience to compounding threats. Our work shows that civilization collapses are preventable; we are not necessarily destined to collapse. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Sustainability transitions are challenged by the social dynamics of people moving. • Migration is a driver of sustainability practices in low income urban settings. • Indepth study of sustainability practices using life histories in Accra. • Sustainability practices vary between internal and international migrants. • Transformation processes among internal and international migrants are not uniform. Development that is inclusive and sustainable requires significant social and environmental transformations from current trajectories, building on demographic realities such as changing profiles of populations, and increased levels of mobility. Migration is a major driving force of urbanisation in all global regions, partly facilitated through emerging technologies and declining costs of movement and communication. Social transformations associated with increased migration are highly uneven but include shifts in the location of economic activities, major urban growth, and changing individual incentives and social constraints on sustainability trajectories. Yet, there is limited empirical evidence on how observed population movements can both challenge and promote sustainable transformations. This paper examines how migration transforms places and societies, by providing new evidence on the behaviours and practices of individuals who are part of such transformations as they assimilate, converge or remain distinctive to prior populations. Focusing on individuals in rapidly expanding cities in the Global South, this study uses new biographical life-history survey data from Accra, Ghana, to examine the barriers and enablers of sustainability practices among diverse types of migrants and a sample of non-migrants. The study uses data from 1,163 individuals: international migrants from the West African sub-region (5 5 9), internal migrants (2 9 9), and non-migrants (3 0 5) in Accra. The findings show that sustainability practices established before migration are predictors of current sustainability practices, including proactive recycling, conservation activities, and choice of mode of transportation, but that there is some convergence between behaviours, reflecting assimilation, place attachment and other factors. Internal migrants in Accra exhibit stronger sustainability practices than international migrants. Individual levels of poverty, poor infrastructural development, and perceptions about life satisfaction in the neighbourhood negatively affect sustainability practices among all respondents. These results suggest that poverty and social exclusion are critical to addressing sustainability issues in urban contexts. It is important for policy makers to address issues of urban poverty, cumulative deprivation, and inequality as strong barriers to the adoption of sustainability practices in urban areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Adaptive management and related fields have theorized new governance strategies that embrace complexity and are able to respond effectively to changing and unpredictable biophysical dynamics. However, this body of work pays inadequate attention to important on-the-ground realities, including feasibility of implementation and the power dynamics embedded in multi-scalar systems of environmental governance. This paper presents findings from a research project on challenges to adaptive management in the variable wetland ecosystem of the Okavango Delta, Botswana. Many residents of this rural region rely on transitional agricultural practices, shifting between dryland and floodplain farming in response to dynamic precipitation and flooding patterns. Higher than average floods in 2009–2011 inundated many floodplain fields past the point of production, causing farmers to shift to the dryland for multiplem seasons. At the same time, the highly centralized Government of Botswana began to implement stricter regulations over floodplain resources, which stemmed in part from a new adaptive management plan developed for the region. As a result, many farmers felt pressured by the government to abandon transitional livelihood practices and to shift permanently to dryland agriculture even though many preferred to continue floodplain farming. This loss of a responsive livelihood strategy will likely result in decreased long-term adaptive capacity for many residents. Drawing on these findings, this paper advances the argument that if adaptive management is to become a viable option for communities in changing environments, more attention must be given to the role of unequal power relations in multi-scalar systems of environmental governance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Taking a global perspective this paper sets out to theoretically and empirically identify prosperity patterns for four groups of countries at different levels of economic development. It conceptualizes ‘prosperity’ in terms of ecological sustainability, social inclusion, and the quality of life and contextualizes this definition in global perspective. Subsequently, it operationalizes and measures these dimensions on the basis of data from sources such as the World Bank, the Global Footprint Network and the OECD for 138 countries and by applying dual multiple factor analysis. Building on earlier research that suggested that higher development levels in terms of GDP per capita are capable of providing social and individual prosperity but at the expense of environmental sustainability, we ask whether other interrelations between prosperity indicators exist on other levels of economic development. Empirically distinguishing between ‘rich’, ‘emerging’, ‘developing’ and ‘poor countries’ the paper finds that social and individual prosperity indicators largely increase with economic development while ecological sustainability indicators worsen. Our analyses further reveal that ‘social cohesion’ can be established under different economic and institutional conditions, that subjective wellbeing increases with income rises at all levels of economic development and that a decoupling of carbon emissions from the provision of prosperity is, in principle, achievable, while a reduction of the global matter and energy throughput poses a much greater challenge. The paper concludes by highlighting the repercussions of these findings for the trajectories that countries at different levels of economic development would need to undertake. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper analyses the relationship between megaproject construction and change in water management institutions. Due to the wide geographical distribution of their costs and benefits, which often spans national and provincial borders, water supply megaprojects frequently prompt intentional or evolutionary institutional change. China’s South-North Water Transfer Project (Middle Route), the world’s largest interbasin transfer project, was completed in December 2014 and is now in operation. Based on extensive fieldwork and analysis of Chinese documents, this paper introduces the government actors involved in, and impacted by, the planning and construction of the project. By detailing the interests of these actors, and the way those interests have been affected by the political, economic and environmental changes wrought by the megaproject, it shows that the Middle Route project has already contributed to change in one major financial institution – water pricing – and is exerting pressure on at least two others—infrastructure financing and compensation. Despite the regulatory efforts of the Chinese central government, incomplete institutional change processes threaten the long-term viability of the megaproject. Megaprojects demand institutional change and this must be factored into policymaking processes; business as usual will not suffice if the real benefits of the South-North Water Transfer are to be fairly distributed and its negative social, economic and environmental effects mitigated and appropriately compensated. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]