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Near‐term iterative forecasting is a powerful tool for ecological decision support and has the potential to transform our understanding of ecological predictability. However, to this point, there has been no cross‐ecosystem analysis of near‐term ecological forecasts, making it difficult to synthesize diverse research efforts and prioritize future developments for this emerging field. In this study, we analyzed 178 near‐term (≤10‐yr forecast horizon) ecological forecasting papers to understand the development and current state of near‐term ecological forecasting literature and to compare forecast accuracy across scales and variables. Our results indicated that near‐term ecological forecasting is widespread and growing: forecasts have been produced for sites on all seven continents and the rate of forecast publication is increasing over time. As forecast production has accelerated, some best practices have been proposed and application of these best practices is increasing. In particular, data publication, forecast archiving, and workflow automation have all increased significantly over time. However, adoption of proposed best practices remains low overall: for example, despite the fact that uncertainty is often cited as an essential component of an ecological forecast, only 45% of papers included uncertainty in their forecast outputs. As the use of these proposed best practices increases, near‐term ecological forecasting has the potential to make significant contributions to our understanding of forecastability across scales and variables. In this study, we found that forecastability (defined here as realized forecast accuracy) decreased in predictable patterns over 1–7 d forecast horizons. Variables that were closely related (i.e., chlorophyll and phytoplankton) displayed very similar trends in forecastability, while more distantly related variables (i.e., pollen and evapotranspiration) exhibited significantly different patterns. Increasing use of proposed best practices in ecological forecasting will allow us to examine the forecastability of additional variables and timescales in the future, providing a robust analysis of the fundamental predictability of ecological variables. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many invasive and some native tree species in North America exhibit strong allelopathic effects that may contribute to their local dominance. Pyrogenic carbon (PyC; including soot, charcoal, and black carbon) is produced by the incomplete combustion of organic matter and is widespread in forest soils. Many forms of PyC have sorptive properties that can reduce the bioavailability of allelochemicals. We investigated the potential for PyC produced by controlled pyrolysis of biomass ("biochar" [BC]) to reduce the allelopathic effects of black walnut (Juglans nigra) and Norway maple (Acer platanoides), a common native tree species and a widespread invasive species in North America, respectively. Seedling growth of two native tree species (Acer saccharinum [silver maple] and Betula papyrifera [paper birch]) in response to leaf‐litter‐incubated soils was examined; litter incubation treatments included leaves of black walnut, Norway maple, and a nonallelopathic species (Tilia americana [American basswood]) in a factorial design with varying dosages; responses to the known primary allelochemical of black walnut (juglone) were also examined. Juglone and leaf litter of both allelopathic species strongly suppressed seedling growth. BC treatments substantially mitigated these effects, consistent with the sorption of allelochemicals; in contrast no positive effects of BC were observed in leaf litter treatments involving controls or additions of nonallelopathic leaf litter. Treatments of leaf litter and juglone with BC increased the total biomass of silver maple by ~35% and in some cases more than doubled the biomass of paper birch. We conclude that BCs have the capacity to largely counteract allelopathic effects in temperate forest systems, suggesting the effects of natural PyC in determining forest community structure, and also the applied use of BC as a soil amendment to mitigate allelopathic effects of invasive tree species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Global policies increasingly focus on the importance of maintaining or improving the integrity of ecosystems, but defining, assessing, and monitoring integrity in marine protected areas (MPAs) remains a challenge. In this paper, we conceptualized ecological integrity along dimensions of heterogeneity and stability containing seven components: physical structure, diversity, function, persistence, resistance, resilience, and natural variability. Through a structured literature search, we identified indicators and metrics used for quantifying ecosystem status components in the marine environment, then reviewed MPA management plans worldwide for inclusion of these components. We evaluated 202 papers applying 83 ecological indicators built from 72 metrics. Ecosystem components were most comprehensively addressed by metrics of taxa presence, organisms count, and area occupied by benthic organisms, and community structure, biomass, and percent cover indicators. Of the 557 MPA management plans we reviewed globally, 93% used at least one ecosystem status term or its synonym in an ecologically relevant context, but 39% did not address any components of stability. In particular, resistance was mentioned in only 1% of management plans, but in some cases it may be inferred from indicators and metrics used to track the best addressed component in management plans, diversity. Plans for MPAs with both an ecological/biological purpose and a research and education purpose contained ecosystem status terms more frequently than other plans, suggesting that engagement with the scientific community may have improved the application of these terms. An improved understanding of how to operationalize and measure ecological integrity can help MPA monitoring and management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the editor discusses various reports within the issue on topics including ecosystem management, related policies, and wildfire management.

The fragmentation of ecological network structures has become a common problem faced by cities. By establishing the urban ecological network under a specific socio‐ecological system framework, we aimed to propose a quantitative index to diagnose the fragmentation of the network structure, and to construct detection model to explore the driving factors and mechanism of the network fragmentation. Using Shenzhen City as an example, we used the Floyd–Prim algorithm to generate the skeleton structure of the ecological network and construct a density discontinuity index to diagnose network fragmentation. Combined with the ecological network scenario, social‐ecological system framework and a two‐layer indicator system were constructed. The detection models were then established to explore the drivers of network disruption and their mode of impact. The models show that the average degree of network fragmentation in Shenzhen was 0.13, and the density of about 85% of corridor discontinuities was greater than 0.01, reflecting the serious state of structural fragmentation. Corridors with more severe structural fragmentation have poorer social‐ecological coordination. The fragmentation in Shenzhen was mainly affected by the activities of actors (A) at the microlevel and the resource system (RS) at the macrolevel. The methods and the framework of socio‐ecosystem analysis proposed in this paper can reveal the driving factors and influence modes of network fragmentation, providing decision‐making reference for ecological restoration practice in urbanized areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Browning of surface waters, also known as brownification, is a process of decreasing water transparency, particularly in boreal lakes surrounded by intensively managed forests and wetlands. In this paper, we review the ecological consequences and ecosystem‐based management (EBM) of browning through a systematic review approach and adopt an interdisciplinary approach to formulating new governance of this complex phenomenon. To understand the effects of browning on the recreational value of freshwaters, we present primary survey data on public perceptions of recreational fishing tourists on water quality in Finland. We identify a need to develop EBM beyond the EU's Water Framework Directive (WFD) to fully account for the extensive implications of browning. We also highlight the need for a better understanding of the within‐lake microbial processes to estimate the browning‐associated changes in the greenhouse gas balance of lakes. Tourist perceptions of the quality of waterbodies in Finland were largely in agreement with the general proportion of waterbodies classified in a good or excellent ecological status class, but these perceptions may be detached from biological quality assessment criteria. Consequently, we suggest that the EBM of inland waters should improve the utilization of information on not only biogeochemical processes but also users' perspectives on aquatic ecosystems beyond the EU WFD. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

As a leading cause of forest health degradation, non‐native invasive plant species are a key focus for many forest management and conservation efforts. These efforts come at a high price for resource‐limited agencies and organizations making cost‐effectiveness an important objective of invasion response plans. In this paper, we present an approach to guide the prioritization of locations for invasion management using species distribution models that account for the non‐equilibrium of invasive species distributions and use readily available land use data as the primary explanatory variables. This approach takes advantage of the relatively high spatial resolution, as well as the broad, continuous geographic coverage, of land use data to provide results at a landscape scale relevant to practitioners responsible for invasive species management. In our example from northern Virginia, we simultaneously modeled a suite of invasive plant species to identify common indicators of invasion. We found that the proportions of surrounding non‐forested land use types (grasses, crops, and development) were the most common and strongest indicators of invasion risk. These outcomes can guide managers of large protected areas to focus on major divides between forest and non‐forest land over linear disturbances. We also found useful species‐specific traits that can inform specific management actions. Additionally, we demonstrate through a case study how organizations that manage multiple smaller properties can take advantage of the projected distribution maps when considering acquiring or administering properties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecological compensation is an innovative and effective tool to explore the coordinated development of socioeconomic prosperity and ecological protection, especially for a watershed crossing different regions. It converts the externalities of ecosystem services into practical financial incentives for local stakeholders. This empirical study applies a quantitative policy evaluation approach to evaluate the environmental and economic effects of an ecological compensation policy, using the paddy land–to–dry land (PLDL) program implemented in China's Miyun Reservoir watershed as an example. The study is based on responses to a 2017 questionnaire regarding agricultural production inputs and outputs administered to 269 households in Hebei Province, where the PLDL program has been operational for over 10 yr. The results show that the program has reduced nitrogen usage by 24% on average in 2017 and decreased the total nitrogen emission load by 16.98 tons for the entire case area, which accounts for approximately 18.6% of the total nitrogen load reduction of the Miyun Reservoir basin. However, the upstream households involved in this program have experienced agricultural income losses higher than that allowed for by the current compensation criterion. Therefore, this paper discusses the factors that should be considered in the process of determining ecological compensation criteria. In particular, the paper proposes a differential compensation scheme based on the environmental effect at the individual level to avoid a standard payment for all households irrespective of their different contributions. This differential compensation payment scheme facilitates the fair treatment of environmental contributors and maximizes environmental benefits through an equitable allocation of limited ecological compensation funds. This study serves as a theoretical and practical reference for further improvement of the current ecological compensation policy in China. The study also sheds light on practices for estimating ecological compensation criteria and formulating ecological compensation policies for other regions or countries in the future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a surveillance model for plant pests that can optimally allocate resources among survey tools with varying properties. While some survey tools are highly specific for the detection of a single pest species, others are more generalized. There is considerable variation in the cost and sensitivity of these tools, but there are no guidelines or frameworks for identifying which tools are most cost‐effective when used in surveillance programs that target the detection of newly invaded populations. To address this gap, we applied our model to design a trapping surveillance program in New Zealand for bark‐ and wood‐boring insects, some of the most serious forest pests worldwide. Our findings show that exclusively utilizing generalized traps (GTs) proves to be highly cost‐effective across a wide range of scenarios, particularly when they are capable of capturing all pest species. Implementing surveillance programs that only employ specialized traps (ST) is cost‐effective only when these traps can detect highly damaging pests. However, even in such cases, they significantly lag in cost‐effectiveness compared to GT‐only programs due to their restricted coverage. When both GTs and STs are used in an integrated surveillance program, the total expected cost (TEC) generally diminishes when compared to programs relying on a single type of trap. However, this relative reduction in TEC is only marginally larger than that achieved with GT‐only programs, as long as highly damaging species can be detected by GTs. The proportion of STs among the optimal required traps fluctuates based on several factors, including the relative pricing of GTs and STs, pest arrival rates, potential damage, and, more prominently, the coverage capacity of GTs. Our analysis suggests that deploying GTs extensively across landscapes appears to be more cost‐effective in areas with either very high or very low levels of relative risk density, potential damage, and arrival rate. Finally, STs are less likely to be required when the pests that are detected by those tools have a higher likelihood of successful eradication because delaying detection becomes less costly for these species. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Gastrointestinal helminth parasites undergo part of their life cycle outside their host, such that developmental stages interact with the soil and dung fauna. These interactions are capable of affecting parasite transmission on pastures yet are generally ignored in current models, empirical studies and practical management. Dominant methods of parasite control, which rely on anthelmintic medications for livestock, are becoming increasingly ineffective due to the emergence of drug‐resistant parasite populations. Furthermore, consumer and regulatory pressure on decreased chemical use in agriculture and the consequential disruption of biological processes in the dung through nontarget effects exacerbates issues with anthelmintic reliance. This presents a need for the application and enhancement of nature‐based solutions and biocontrol methods. However, successfully harnessing these options relies on advanced understanding of the ecological system and interacting effects among biotic factors and with immature parasite stages. Here, we develop a framework linking three key groups of dung and soil fauna—fungi, earthworms, and dung beetles—with each other and developmental stages of helminths parasitic in farmed cattle, sheep, and goats in temperate grazing systems. We populate this framework from existing published studies and highlight the interplay between faunal groups and documented ecological outcomes. Of 1756 papers addressing abiotic drivers of populations of these organisms and helminth parasites, only 112 considered interactions between taxa and 36 presented data on interactions between more than two taxonomic groups. Results suggest that fungi reduce parasite abundance and earthworms may enhance fungal communities, while competition between dung taxa may reduce their individual effect on parasite transmission. Dung beetles were found to impact fungal populations and parasite transmission variably, possibly tied to the prevailing climate within a specific ecological context. By exploring combinations of biotic factors, we consider how interactions between species may be fundamental to the ecological consequences of biocontrol strategies and nontarget impacts of anthelmintics on dung and soil fauna and how pasture management alterations to promote invertebrates might help limit parasite transmission. With further development and parameterization the framework could be applied quantitatively to guide, prioritize, and interpret hypothesis‐driven experiments and integrate biotic factors into established models of parasite transmission dynamics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Plant species invasion represents one of the major drivers of biodiversity change globally, yet there is confusion about the nature of nonindigenous species (NIS) impact. This confusion stems from differing notions of what constitutes invasive species impact and the scales at which it should be assessed. At local scales, the mechanisms of the impact on local competitors can be classified into four scenarios: (1) minimal impact from NIS inhabiting unique niches; (2) neutral impact spread across the community and proportional to NIS abundance; (3) targeted impact on a small number of competitors with overlapping niches; and (4) pervasive impact that is disproportionate to NIS abundance and caused by modifications that filter out other species. I developed a statistical test to distinguish these four mechanism scenarios based on plant community rank‐abundance curves and then created a scale‐independent standardized impact score. Using an example long‐term dataset with high native plant diversity and an abundance gradient of the invasive vine, Vincetoxicum rossicum, I show that the impact resulted in either targeted or pervasive extirpations. Regardless of whether the NIS impact is neutral, targeted, or pervasive, the net outcome will be the homogenization of ecosystems and reduced biodiversity at larger scales, perhaps reducing ecosystem resilience. The framework and statistical evaluation of impact presented in this paper provide researchers and managers with an objective approach to quantifying NIS impact and prioritizing species for further management actions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Invasive plants are a prominent threat to ecosystems and economies worldwide. Knowing the identity of invasive plants is critical for preventing their introduction and spread. Yet several lines of evidence, including spatial and taxonomic biases in reporting and the ongoing emergence of new invasives, suggest that we are missing basic information about the identity of invasive plants. Using a database of invasive plants reported in the peer‐reviewed literature between 1959 and 2020, we examined trends in the accumulation of new invasive plants over time and estimated the size of the current pool of invasive plants both continentally and globally. The number of new invasive plants continues to increase exponentially over time, showing no sign of saturation, even in the best studied regions. Moreover, a sample‐size based rarefaction‐extrapolation curve of reported taxa suggests that what is documented in the current literature (3008 taxa) only captures 64% of the likely number of invasive plants globally (4721 taxa ± 132 SE). These estimates varied continentally; less than half of invasive plant taxa have likely been identified in Oceania and Central and South Americas. Studies that included multiple invasive plants (e.g., floristic studies) were much more efficient at adding new taxa to our global understanding of what is invasive (identifying 4.2 times more new taxa than single‐taxon studies). With more potential invaders arriving every day, this analysis highlights a critical gap in our knowledge of the current invasive plant pool. Expanding invasion science to better encompass understudied geographic areas and increasing the numbers of floristic surveys would greatly improve our ability to accurately and efficiently identify what taxa are invasive. Preventing invasive plant introductions is incumbent upon knowing the identity of invasive plants. Thus, large knowledge gaps remain in invasion ecology that hinder efforts to proactively prevent and manage invasive plants. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Monitoring vegetation restoration is challenging because monitoring is costly, requires long‐term funding, and involves monitoring multiple vegetation variables that are often not linked back to learning about progress toward objectives. There is a clear need for the development of targeted monitoring programs that focus on a reduced set of variables that are tied to specific restoration objectives. In this paper, we present a method to progress the development of a targeted monitoring program, using a pre‐existing state‐and‐transition model. We (1) use field data to validate an expert‐derived classification of woodland vegetation states; (2) use these data to identify which variable(s) help differentiate woodland states; and (3) identify the target threshold (for the variable) that signifies if the desired transition has been achieved. The measured vegetation variables from each site in this study were good predictors of the different states. We show that by measuring only a few of these variables, it is possible to assign the vegetation state for a collection of sites, and monitor if and when a transition to another state has occurred. For this ecosystem and state‐and‐transition models, out of nine vegetation variables considered, the density of immature trees and percentage of exotic understory vegetation cover were the variables most frequently specified as effective to define a threshold or transition. We synthesize findings by presenting a decision tree that provides practical guidance for the development of targeted monitoring strategies for woodland vegetation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Wetlands in arid or semiarid zones are vital for maintaining biodiversity but face growing threats. Flooding regime variability is a key driver of ecological dynamism in these systems, dictating primary productivity on a large spatial scale. The functional composition or diversity of wetland-dependent bird species has been found to be sensitive to fluctuations in hydrological regimes and can thus be indicative of cascading ecosystem responses associated with climate change. In this paper, we investigate whether large-scale changes in inundation and fire--a significant additional biodiversity determinant in (semi-)arid landscapes--are reliable predictors of functional group responses of wetland-dependent birds along a perennial channel of the Okavango Delta, Botswana. We fit generalized additive models (GAMs) to 6 years of bird survey data collected along ~190-km-long annual transects and use remotely sensed landscape-level inundation estimates, as well as spatiotemporal distance to fire, to predict the responsiveness of seven trait-based functional group abundances. During the surveys, a total of 89 different wetland-dependent bird species were recorded, including 76 residents, across all years, with below-surface feeding waders consistently the most abundant functional group. Including estimated spatiotemporal variability in flooding and fire, as well as their interactions, improved model fit for all seven functional groups, explaining between 46.8% and 68.3% of variability in functional group abundances. Covariates representing longer-term variability in inundation generally performed better than shorter-term ones. For example, variability in inundation over the 5 months preceding a survey best predicted the responses of all functional groups, which also all exhibited responsiveness to the interaction between flooding and fire. We were able to interpret the responses of individual functional groups, based on the resource exploitation assumption. Overall, our results suggest that perennial waters in dryland wetlands offer functional refugia to wetland-dependent birds and highlight the indicative power of large-scale traitbased bird monitoring. Our findings demonstrate the potential utility of such a monitoring regime for dryland wetland ecosystems vulnerable to industrial-scale anthropogenic pressure and associated climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article discusses the management of invasive alien species (IAS) in China. It highlights the negative impacts of biological invasions on ecosystems, the environment, and the economy. The article presents 24 papers that cover a wide range of topics related to IAS management, including risk analysis, mechanisms of invasion success, performance of successful IAS, and impact and control of invasive species. The studies use various methods such as field surveys, experiments, ecological modeling, and molecular techniques to assess invasion risks, investigate mechanisms, and develop control strategies. The article emphasizes the importance of interdisciplinary research and effective management strategies to address the increasing threat of IAS in China. [Extracted from the article]

Fire has transformative effects on soil biological, chemical, and physical properties in terrestrial ecosystems around the world. While methods for estimating fire characteristics and associated effects aboveground have progressed in recent decades, there remain major challenges in characterizing soil heating and associated effects belowground. Overcoming these challenges is crucial for understanding how fire influences soil carbon storage, biogeochemical cycling, and ecosystem recovery. In this paper, we present a novel framework for characterizing belowground heating and effects. The framework includes (1) an open‐source model to estimate fire‐driven soil heating, cooling, and the biotic effects of heating across depths and over time (Soil Heating in Fire model; SheFire) and (2) a simple field method for recording soil temperatures at multiple depths using self‐contained temperature sensor and data loggers (i.e., iButtons), installed along a wooden stake inserted into the soil (i.e., an iStake). The iStake overcomes many logistical challenges associated with obtaining temperature profiles using thermocouples. Heating measurements provide inputs to the SheFire model, and modeled soil heating can then be used to derive ecosystem response functions, such as heating effects on microorganisms and tissues. To validate SheFire estimates, we conducted a burn table experiment using iStakes to record temperatures that were in turn used to fit the SheFire model. We then compared SheFire predicted temperatures against measured temperatures at other soil depths. To benchmark iStake measurements against those recorded by thermocouples, we co‐located both types of sensors in the burn table experiment. We found that SheFire demonstrated skill in interpolating and extrapolating soil temperatures, with the largest errors occurring at the shallowest depths. We also found that iButton sensors are comparable to thermocouples for recording soil temperatures during fires. Finally, we present a case study using iStakes and SheFire to estimate in situ soil heating during a prescribed fire and demonstrate how observed heating regimes would influence seed and tree root vascular cambium survival at different soil depths. This measurement‐modeling framework provides a cutting‐edge approach for describing soil temperature regimes (i.e., soil heating) through a soil profile and predicting biological responses. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Introduction of pests and diseases through trade is one of the main socio‐ecological challenges worldwide. Although Binomial sampling inspection at the border can reduce pest entry risk, it is common for consignments to fail inspection, wasting resources for both exporter and importer. Outsourcing the inspection to the exporting country could reduce the cost of inspection for both parties. However, there is then a need to assess the quality of the offshore inspection. In this paper, we develop an inverse method combining past inspection data on the pathway, an onshore inspection sample, and the Beta‐Binomial model to infer the sample size of the offshore inspection. We illustrate the method on two case studies: the importation of live plants through germplasm into Australia and the importation of pelleted seeds in New Zealand. In these case studies, we found that detecting four to five infested units in a single onshore inspection was typically sufficient to significantly doubt the presence of a compliant offshore inspection. We also ran a simulation experiment to quantify the statistical power to reject or accept the presence of compliant offshore inspection in practice: In highly infested pathways, we could detect the absence of offshore inspections after inspecting five consignments onshore. Less infested pathways required inspecting 20 to 60 consignments onshore. Our study demonstrates that Binomial sampling onshore can be used to assess the quality of offshore inspections. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Effective conservation requires understanding the processes that determine population outcomes. Too often, we assume that protected areas conserve wild populations despite evidence that they frequently fail to do so. Without large‐scale studies, however, we cannot determine what relationships are the product of localized conditions versus general patterns that inform conservation more broadly. Leopards' (Panthera pardus) basic ecology is well studied but little research has investigated anthropogenic effects on leopard density at broad scales. We investigated the drivers of leopard density among 27 diverse protected areas in northeastern South Africa to understand what conditions facilitate abundant populations. We formulated 10 working hypotheses that considered the relative influence of bottom‐up biological factors and top‐down anthropogenic factors on leopard density. Using camera‐trap survey data, we fit a multi‐session spatial capture–recapture model with inhomogenous density for each hypothesis and evaluated support using an information theoretic approach. The four supported hypotheses indicated that leopard density is primarily limited by human impacts, but that habitat suitability and management conditions also matter. The proportion of camera stations that recorded domestic animals, a proxy for the extent of human impacts and protected area effectiveness, was the only predictor variable present in all four supported models. Protected areas are the cornerstone of large felid conservation, but only when the human–wildlife interface is well managed and protected areas shelter wildlife populations from anthropogenic impacts. To ensure the long‐term abundance of large carnivore populations, reserve managers should recognize the ineffectiveness of "paper parks" and promote contiguous networks of protected areas that offer leopards and other large mammal populations greater space and reduced human impacts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the author discusses several articles within the issue in topics including change in scientific publishing, complexity of ecological studies and scientific practices.

Habitat selection is a fundamental animal behavior that shapes a wide range of ecological processes, including animal movement, nutrient transfer, trophic dynamics and population distribution. Although habitat selection has been a focus of ecological studies for decades, technological, conceptual and methodological advances over the last 20 yr have led to a surge in studies addressing this process. Despite the substantial literature focused on quantifying the habitat‐selection patterns of animals, there is a marked lack of guidance on best analytical practices. The conceptual foundations of the most commonly applied modeling frameworks can be confusing even to those well versed in their application. Furthermore, there has yet to be a synthesis of the advances made over the last 20 yr. Therefore, there is a need for both synthesis of the current state of knowledge on habitat selection, and guidance for those seeking to study this process. Here, we provide an approachable overview and synthesis of the literature on habitat‐selection analyses (HSAs) conducted using selection functions, which are by far the most applied modeling framework for understanding the habitat‐selection process. This review is purposefully non‐technical and focused on understanding without heavy mathematical and statistical notation, which can confuse many practitioners. We offer an overview and history of HSAs, describing the tortuous conceptual path to our current understanding. Through this overview, we also aim to address the areas of greatest confusion in the literature. We synthesize the literature outlining the most exciting conceptual advances in the field of habitat‐selection modeling, discussing the substantial ecological and evolutionary inference that can be made using contemporary techniques. We aim for this paper to provide clarity for those navigating the complex literature on HSAs while acting as a reference and best practices guide for practitioners. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientists and resource managers often use methods and tools that assume ecosystem components respond linearly to environmental drivers and human stressors. However, a growing body of literature demonstrates that many relationships are non-linear, where small changes in a driver prompt a disproportionately large ecological response. We aim to provide a comprehensive assessment of the relationships between drivers and ecosystem components to identify where and when non-linearities are likely to occur. We focused our analyses on one of the best-studied marine systems, pelagic ecosystems, which allowed us to apply robust statistical techniques on a large pool of previously published studies. In this synthesis, we (1) conduct a wide literature review on single driver-response relationships in pelagic systems, (2) use statistical models to identify the degree of non-linearity in these relationships, and (3) assess whether general patterns exist in the strengths and shapes of non-linear relationships across drivers. Overall we found that non-linearities are common in pelagic ecosystems, comprising at least 52% of all driver-response relationships. This is likely an underestimate, as papers with higher quality data and analytical approaches reported non-linear relationships at a higher frequency (on average 11% more). Consequently, in the absence of evidence for a linear relationship, it is safer to assume a relationship is non-linear. Strong non-linearities can lead to greater ecological and socioeconomic consequences if they are unknown (and/or unanticipated), but if known they may provide clear thresholds to inform management targets. In pelagic systems, strongly non-linear relationships are often driven by climate and trophodynamic variables but are also associated with local stressors, such as overfishing and pollution, that can be more easily controlled by managers. Even when marine resource managers cannot influence ecosystem change, they can use information about threshold responses to guide how other stressors are managed and to adapt to new ocean conditions. As methods to detect and reduce uncertainty around threshold values improve, managers will be able to better understand and account for ubiquitous non-linear relationships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An introduction is presented in which the author talks about the mapping of invasive species, conservation of natural resources, and management of ecosystems.

Forest landscapes across western North America (wNA) have experienced extensive changes over the last two centuries, while climatic warming has become a global reality over the last four decades. Resulting interactions between historical increases in forested area and density and recent rapid warming, increasing insect mortality, and wildfire burned areas, are now leading to substantial abrupt landscape alterations. These outcomes are forcing forest planners and managers to identify strategies that can modify future outcomes that are ecologically and/or socially undesirable. Past forest management, including widespread harvest of fire‐ and climate‐tolerant large old trees and old forests, fire exclusion (both Indigenous and lightning ignitions), and highly effective wildfire suppression have contributed to the current state of wNA forests. These practices were successful at meeting short‐term demands, but they match poorly to modern realities. Hagmann et al. review a century of observations and multi‐scale, multi‐proxy, research evidence that details widespread changes in forested landscapes and wildfire regimes since the influx of European colonists. Over the preceding 10 millennia, large areas of wNA were already settled and proactively managed with intentional burning by Indigenous tribes. Prichard et al. then review the research on management practices historically applied by Indigenous tribes and currently applied by some managers to intentionally manage forests for resilient conditions. They address 10 questions surrounding the application and relevance of these management practices. Here, we highlight the main findings of both papers and offer recommendations for management. We discuss progress paralysis that often occurs with strict adherence to the precautionary principle; offer insights for dealing with the common problem of irreducible uncertainty and suggestions for reframing management and policy direction; and identify key knowledge gaps and research needs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Estimating bird and bat fatalities caused by wind‐turbine facilities is challenging when carcasses are rare and produce counts that are either exactly or very near zero. The rarity of found carcasses is exacerbated when live members of a particular species are rare and when carcasses degrade quickly, are removed by scavengers, or are not detected by observers. With few observed carcass counts, common statistical methods like logistic, Poisson, or negative binomial regression are unreliable (statistically biased) and often fail to provide answers (i.e., fail to converge). Here, we propose a binomial N‐mixture model that estimates fatality rates as well as the total number of carcasses when rates are expanded. Our model extends the "evidence of absence" model by relating carcass deposition rates to study covariates and by incorporating terms that naturally scale counts from facilities of different sizes. Our model, which we call Evidence of Absence Regression (EoAR), can estimate the total number of birds or bats killed at a single wind energy facility or a fleet of wind energy facilities based on covariate values. Furthermore, with accurate prior distributions the model's results are extremely robust to sparse data and unobserved combinations of covariate values. In this paper, we describe the model, show its low bias and high precision via computer simulation, and apply it to bat carcass counts observed at 21 wind energy facilities in Iowa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Many secondary deciduous forests of eastern North America are approaching a transition in which mature early‐successional trees are declining, resulting in an uncertain future for this century‐long carbon (C) sink. We initiated the Forest Accelerated Succession Experiment (FASET) at the University of Michigan Biological Station to examine the patterns and mechanisms underlying forest C cycling following the stem girdling‐induced mortality of >6,700 early‐successional Populus spp. (aspen) and Betula papyrifera (paper birch). Meteorological flux tower‐based C cycling observations from the 33‐ha treatment forest have been paired with those from a nearby unmanipulated forest since 2008. Following over a decade of observations, we revisit our core hypothesis: that net ecosystem production (NEP) would increase following the transition to mid‐late‐successional species dominance due to increased canopy structural complexity. Supporting our hypothesis, NEP was stable, briefly declined, and then increased relative to the control in the decade following disturbance; however, increasing NEP was not associated with rising structural complexity but rather with a rapid 1‐yr recovery of total leaf area index as mid‐late‐successional Acer, Quercus, and Pinus assumed canopy dominance. The transition to mid‐late‐successional species dominance improved carbon‐use efficiency (CUE = NEP/gross primary production) as ecosystem respiration declined. Similar soil respiration rates in control and treatment forests, along with species differences in leaf physiology and the rising relative growth rates of mid‐late‐successional species in the treatment forest, suggest changes in aboveground plant respiration and growth were primarily responsible for increases in NEP. We conclude that deciduous forests transitioning from early to middle succession are capable of sustained or increased NEP, even when experiencing extensive tree mortality. This adds to mounting evidence that aging deciduous forests in the region will function as C sinks for decades to come. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

To properly conserve and manage wild populations, it is important to have information on abundance and population dynamics. In the case of rare and cryptic species, especially in remote locations, surveys can be difficult and expensive, and run the risk of not producing sample sizes large enough to produce precise estimates. Therefore, it is crucial to conduct preliminary analysis to determine if the study will produce useable estimates. The focus of this paper is a proposed mark-recapture study of Antarctic blue whales (Balaenoptera musculus intermedia). Antarctic blue whales were hunted to near extinction up until the mid- 1960s, when commercial exploitation of this species ended. Current abundance estimates are a decade old. Furthermore, at present, there are no formal circumpolar-level cetacean surveys operating in Antarctic waters and, specifically, there is no strategy to monitor the potential recovery of Antarctic blue whales. Hence the work in this paper was motivated by the need to inform decisions on strategies for future monitoring of Antarctic blue whale population. The paper describes a model to predict the precision and bias of estimates from a proposed survey program. The analysis showed that mark-recapture is indeed a suitable method to provide a circumpolar abundance estimate of Antarctic blue whales, with precision of the abundance, at the midpoint of the program, predicted to be between 0.2 and 0.3. However, this was only if passive acoustic tracking was utilized to increase the encounter rate. The analysis also provided guidance on general design for an Antarctic blue whale program, showing that it requires a 12-year duration; although surveys do not necessarily need to be run every year if multiple vessels are available to clump effort. Mark-recapture is based on a number of assumptions; it was evident from the analysis that ongoing analysis and monitoring of the data would be required to check such assumptions hold (e.g., test for heterogeneity), with the modeling adjusted as needed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The forest sector can play a significant role in climate change mitigation. We evaluated forest sector carbon trends and potential mitigation scenarios in Vermont using a systems‐based modeling framework that accounts for net emissions from all forest sector components. These components comprise (1) the forest ecosystem, including land‐use change, (2) harvested wood products (HWP), and (3) substitution effects associated with using renewable wood‐based products and fuels in place of more emission‐intensive materials and fossil fuel‐based energy. We assessed baseline carbon trends from 1995 through 2050 using a business as usual (BAU) scenario. Emission reductions associated with different forest management and HWP scenarios were evaluated relative to the BAU scenario from 2020 to 2050. We estimated uncertainty for each forest sector component and used a Monte Carlo approach to estimate the distribution of cumulative total mitigation for each scenario relative to baseline. Our analysis indicates that the strength of the forest sector carbon sink in Vermont has been declining and will continue to decline over coming decades under the BAU scenario. However, several scenarios evaluated here could be effective in reducing emissions and enhancing carbon uptake. Shifting HWP to longer‐lived commodities resulted in a 14% reduction in net cumulative emissions by 2050, the largest reduction of all scenarios. A scenario that combined extending harvest rotations, utilizing additional harvest residues for bioenergy, and increasing forest productivity resulted in a 12% reduction in net cumulative emissions. Shifting commodities from pulp and paper to bioenergy showed a 7.3% reduction in emissions. In contrast, shortening rotations to increase harvests for bioenergy use resulted in a 5.5% increase in emissions. In summary, model simulations suggest that net emissions could be reduced by up to 14% relative to BAU, depending on the management and HWP‐use scenario. Combining multiple scenarios could further enhance reductions. However, realizing the full climate mitigation potential of these forests may be challenging due to socioeconomic barriers to implementation, as well as alternative management objectives that must be considered along with carbon sequestration. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Insects are important pollinators of global food crops and wild plants. The adult and larval diet and habitat needs are well known for many bee taxa, but poorly understood for other pollinating taxa. Non‐bee pollinators often feed on different substrates in their larval and adult life stages, and this diet and habitat diversity has important implications for their conservation and management. We reviewed the global literature on crop pollinating Diptera (the true flies) to identify both larval and adult fly diet and habitat needs. We then assembled the published larval and adult diets and habitat needs of beneficial fly pollinators found globally into a freely accessible database. Of the 405 fly species known to visit global food crops, we found relevant published evidence regarding larval and adult diet and habitat information for 254 species, which inhabited all eight global biogeographic regions. We found the larvae of these species lived in 35 different natural habitats and belong to 10 different feeding guilds. Additionally, differences between adult Diptera sexes also impacted diet needs; females from 14 species across five families fed on protein sources other than pollen to start the reproductive process of oogenesis (egg development) while males of the same species fed exclusively on pollen and nectar. While all adult species fed at least partially on floral nectar and/or pollen, only five species were recorded feeding on pollen and no fly larvae fed on nectar. Of the 242 species of larvae with established diet information, 33% were predators (n = 79) and 30% were detritivores (n = 73). Detritivores were the most generalist taxa and utilized 17 different habitats and 12 different feeding substrates. Of all fly taxa, only 2% belonged to the same feeding guild in both active life stages. Our results show that many floral management schemes may be insufficient to support pollinating Diptera. Pollinator conservation strategies in agroecosystems should consider other non‐floral resources, such as wet organic materials and dung, as habitats for beneficial fly larvae. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Ecologists are increasingly familiar with Bayesian statistical modeling and its associated Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methodology to infer about or to discover interesting effects in data. The complexity of ecological data often suggests implementation of (statistical) models with a commensurately rich structure of effects, including crossed or nested (i.e., hierarchical or multi‐level) structures of fixed and/or random effects. Yet, our experience suggests that most ecologists are not familiar with subtle but important problems that often arise with such models and with their implementation in popular software. Of foremost consideration for us is the notion of effect identifiability, which generally concerns how well data, models, or implementation approaches inform about, i.e., identify, quantities of interest. In this paper, we focus on implementation pitfalls that potentially misinform subsequent inference, despite otherwise informative data and models. We illustrate the aforementioned issues using random effects regressions on synthetic data. We show how to diagnose identifiability issues and how to remediate these issues with model reparameterization and computational and/or coding practices in popular software, with a focus on JAGS, OpenBUGS, and Stan. We also show how these solutions can be extended to more complex models involving multiple groups of nested, crossed, additive, or multiplicative effects, for models involving random and/or fixed effects. Finally, we provide example code (JAGS/OpenBUGS and Stan) that practitioners can modify and use for their own applications. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Performance weighted aggregation of expert judgments, using calibration questions, has been advocated to improve pooled quantitative judgments for ecological questions. However, there is little discussion or practical advice in the ecological literature regarding the application, advantages or challenges of performance weighting. In this paper we (1) illustrate how the IDEA protocol with four‐step question format can be extended to include performance weighted aggregation from the Classical Model, and (2) explore the extent to which this extension improves pooled judgments for a range of performance measures. Our case study demonstrates that performance weights can improve judgments derived from the IDEA protocol with four‐step question format. However, there is no a‐priori guarantee of improvement. We conclude that the merits of the method lie in demonstrating that the final aggregation of judgments provides the best representation of uncertainty (i.e., validation), whether that be via equally weighted or performance weighted aggregation. Whether the time and effort entailed in performance weights can be justified is a matter for decision‐makers. Our case study outlines the rationale, challenges, and benefits of performance weighted aggregations. It will help to inform decisions about the deployment of performance weighting and avoid common pitfalls in its application. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Sampling biases permeate ecological research and result in knowledge gaps that have vital consequences for conservation planning. The consequences of knowledge gaps on species identity and distribution (the Wallacean and Linnean shortfalls, respectively) have become apparent recently, but we know little about the extent that research biases and knowledge gaps on traits that influence species' niches (the Hutchinsonian shortfall) affect conservation policy. To examine whether knowledge of species' traits based on seed ecology is geographically, phylogenetically, and ecologically biased, we retrieved research data on seed germination, seed dormancy, seed dispersal, seed banks, seed predation, and seed removal from a database of 847 papers, 1648 species, and 5322 cases. Brazil was selected as a model system for megadiverse, undersampled countries. Kernel density maps showed that research was geographically biased towards highly populated sites, with vast areas remaining historically unexplored. We also show that research was clustered into protected areas. We detected a significant positive phylogenetic bias at genus-level, indicating research concentration in few genera and lower relative bias rates for many herbaceous genera. Unexpectedly, information on seed banking was available for only 74 (3.4%) of threatened species, which suggests that information deficits are highest for species with critical needs for ex situ conservation strategies. Tree, fleshy-fruited, and biotic dispersal species were disproportionately overstudied. Our data indicate that information deficits on seed ecology preclude our ability to effectively restore ecosystems and to safeguard endangered species. We call for a systematic improvement of environmental agenda in which policy makers and scientists target sites, clades, and functional groups historically neglected. Lessons from developed countries and collaborative efforts will be important for megadiverse, underdeveloped countries to achieve the targets of international agreements that depend on seed ecology knowledge aiming to secure biological diversity and ecosystem services. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In a recent paper, Jach-Smith and Jackson (2020) used the SP 15 sp N natural abundance ( SP 15 sp N) of two sources of nitrogen (N), available soil N and N in AMF, and SP 15 sp N mass balance equations to calculate the amount of N transferred by arbuscular mycorrhizal fungi (AMF) to switchgrass ( I Panicum virgatum i L.), a perennial grass (the host plant) used in a bioenergy system in the United States. Natural abundance of 15 N in nitrogen-limited forest and tundra can estimate nitrogen cycling through mycorrhizal fungi: a review. In this context, it is critical to measure the SP 15 sp N of available N under different N addition treatments to properly use the isotope mass balance equations (Hobbie and Hobbie 2008). [Extracted from the article]

Carbon (C)‐informed forest management requires understanding how disturbance and management influence soil organic carbon (SOC) stocks at scales relevant to landowners and forest policy and management professionals. The continued growth of data sets and publications allows powerful synthesis approaches to be applied to such questions at increasingly fine scales. Here, we report results from a synthesis that used meta‐analysis of published studies and two large observational databases to quantify disturbance and management impacts on SOC stocks. We conducted this, the third in a series of ecoregional SOC assessments, for the Pacific Northwest, which comprises ~8% of the land area but ~12% of the U.S. forest sector C sink. At the ecoregional level, our analysis indicated that fundamental patterns of vegetation, climate, and topography are far more important controls on SOC stocks than land use history, disturbance, or management. However, the same patterns suggested that increased warming, drying, wildland fire, and forest regeneration failure pose significant risks to SOC stocks across the region. Detailed meta‐analysis results indicated that wildfires diminished SOC stocks throughout the soil profile, while prescribed fire only influenced surface organic materials and harvesting had no significant overall impact on SOC. Independent observational data corroborated the negative influence of fire on SOC derived from meta‐analysis, suggested that harvest impacts may vary subregionally with climate or vegetation, and revealed that forests with agricultural uses (e.g., grazing) or legacies (e.g., cultivation) had smaller SOC stocks. We also quantified effects of a range of common forest management practices having either positive (organic amendments, nitrogen [N]‐fixing vegetation establishment, inorganic N fertilization) or no overall effects on SOC (other inorganic fertilizers, urea fertilization, competition suppression through herbicides). In order to maximize the management applications of our results, we qualified them with ratings of confidence based on degree of support across approaches. Last, similar to earlier published assessments from other ecoregions, we supplemented our quantitative synthesis results with a literature review to arrive at a concise set of tactics for adapting management operations to site‐specific criteria. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, Bleich ([4]) wrote a letter to the editor about a paper in which we modeled the population viability of mountain lions ( I Puma concolor i ) in isolated mountain ranges in southern California (Benson et al. [2]). As noted in our original paper, it would be beneficial to evaluate mule deer population dynamics in our study systems to provide a better understanding of predator-prey interactions between mountain lions and mule deer (Benson et al. [2]). Bleich ([4]) does not identify what ecosystem services (i.e., benefits humans obtain from ecosystems) he is attributing to mountain lions and we found no mention of ecosystem services in Bleich ([3]). We did not study or document benefits derived by humans from mountain lions and felt it was more appropriate to briefly note the value of mountain lion viability with respect to maintaining predator-prey interactions as an important ecosystem process. [Extracted from the article]

Abstract: Habitat loss is the greatest threat to the persistence of forest‐dependent amphibians, but it is not the only factor influencing species occurrences. The composition of the surrounding matrix, structure of stream networks, and topography are also important landscape characteristics influencing amphibian distributions. Tropical forests have high diversity and endemism of amphibians, but little is known about the specific responses of many of these species to landscape features. In this paper, we quantify the response of amphibian species and communities to landscape‐scale characteristics in streams within the fragmented Brazilian Atlantic Forest. We surveyed amphibian communities during a rainy season in 50 independent stream segments using Standardized Acoustic and Visual Transect Sampling (active) and Automated Acoustic Recorders (passive) methods. We developed a hierarchical multi‐species occupancy model to quantify the influence of landscape‐scale characteristics (forest cover, agriculture, catchment area, stream density, and slope) on amphibian occurrence probabilities while accounting for imperfect detection of species using the two survey methods. At the community level, we estimated an overall mean positive relationship between amphibian occurrence probabilities and forest cover, and a negative relationship with agriculture. Catchment area and slope were negatively related with amphibian community structure (95% credible interval [CI] did not overlap zero). The species‐level relationships with landscape covariates were highly variable but showed similar patterns to those at the community level. Species detection probabilities varied widely and were influenced by the sampling method. For most species, the active method resulted in higher detection probabilities than the passive approach. Our findings suggest that small streams and flat topography lead to higher amphibian occurrence probabilities for many species in Brazil's Atlantic Forest. Our results combined with land use and topographic maps can be used to make predictions of amphibian occurrences and distributions beyond our study area. Such projections can be useful to determine where to conduct future research and prioritize conservation efforts in human‐modified landscapes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In animal surveys, detectability can vary widely across species. We hypothesized that detectability of animals should be a function of species traits such as mass, color, and mean herd size. We also hypothesized that models of detectability based on species traits can be used to predict detectability for new species not in the original data set, leading to substantial benefits for ecology and conservation. We tested these hypotheses with double-observer aerial surveys of 10 mammal species in northern Botswana. We combined all 10 species and modeled their detectability with species traits (mass, mean herd size, color) as predictors while controlling for observer effects, vegetation, and herd size. We found support for effects of mass and an interaction between herd size and mean herd size on detectability. This model accurately predicted the ratio of herds detected by two observers vs. one observer for 8 of 10 species. To test whether a model based on species traits could be applied to a new species, we serially deleted each species from the data set, fit a trait-based model to the remaining nine species, and used this model to predict detectability for the deleted species. The model was able to reproduce the species-trait model for seven species and accurately predicted the ratio of detections by one or two observers for a different set of seven species; the model was successful by both measures for five species. To our knowledge, this represents the first time that a mechanistic model for detectability of animals has been used to predict detectability for new species. Prediction failed for species with extreme values of traits, suggesting that predicting detectability is not possible near or beyond the boundaries of one's data set. The approach taken in this paper can potentially be used with a variety of taxa and may provide new opportunities to apply detectability corrections where they have not been possible before. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Conservation biology and applied ecology increasingly recognize that natural resource management is both an outcome and a driver of social, economic, and ecological dynamics. Protected areas offer a fundamental approach to conserving ecosystems, but they are also social-ecological systems whose ecological management and sustainability are heavily influenced by people. This editorial, and the papers in the invited feature that it introduces, discuss three emerging themes in social-ecological systems approaches to understanding protected areas: (1) the resilience and sustainability of protected areas, including analyses of their internal dynamics, their effectiveness, and the resilience of the landscapes within which they occur; (2) the relevance of spatial context and scale for protected areas, including such factors as geographic connectivity, context, exchanges between protected areas and their surrounding landscapes, and scale dependency in the provision of ecosystem services; and (3) efforts to reframe what protected areas are and how they both define and are defined by the relationships of people and nature. These emerging themes have the potential to transform management and policy approaches for protected areas and have important implications for conservation, in both theory and practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Predicting the composition and dynamics of communities is a challenging but useful task to efficiently support ecosystem management. Community ecology has developed a number of promising theories, including food webs, metabolic theory, ecological stoichiometry, and environmental filtering. Their joint implementation in a mechanistic modeling framework should help us to bring community ecology to a new level by improving its predictive abilities. One of the challenges lies in the proper consideration of model uncertainty. In this paper, we contribute to this challenging task by modeling the temporal dynamics of macroinvertebrate communities in a stream subjected to hydropeaking in Switzerland. To this end, we extended the mechanistic model Streambugs regarding flood-induced drift processes and the use of trait information to define performance filters. Model predictions without any calibration were in the right order of magnitude but did not reflect the dynamics of most of the invertebrate taxa well. Bayesian inference drastically improved the model fit. It revealed that a large share of total model output uncertainty can be attributed to observation errors, which exceeded model parameter uncertainty. Observed and simulated community-aggregated traits helped to identify and understand model deficits. The combination of different ecological theories and trait information in a single mechanistic modeling framework combined with Bayesian inference can thus help to predict responses of communities to environmental changes, which can support ecosystem management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper reviews the use of acoustic telemetry as a tool for addressing issues in fisheries management, and serves as the lead to the special Feature Issue of Ecological Applications titled Acoustic Telemetry and Fisheries Management. Specifically, we provide an overview of the ways in which acoustic telemetry can be used to inform issues central to the ecology, conservation, and management of exploited and/or imperiled fish species. Despite great strides in this area in recent years, there are comparatively few examples where data have been applied directly to influence fisheries management and policy. We review the literature on this issue, identify the strengths and weaknesses of work done to date, and highlight knowledge gaps and difficulties in applying empirical fish telemetry studies to fisheries policy and practice. We then highlight the key areas of management and policy addressed, as well as the challenges that needed to be overcome to do this. We conclude with a set of recommendations about how researchers can, in consultation with stock assessment scientists and managers, formulate testable scientific questions to address and design future studies to generate data that can be used in a meaningful way by fisheries management and conservation practitioners. We also urge the involvement of relevant stakeholders (managers, fishers, conservation societies, etc.) early on in the process (i.e., in the co-creation of research projects), so that all priority questions and issues can be addressed effectively. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Pine wood nematode ( PWN), Bursaphelenchus xylophilus, is a threat for pine species ( Pinus spp.) throughout the world. The nematode is native to North America, and invaded Japan, China, Korea, and Taiwan, and more recently Portugal and Spain. PWN enters new areas through trade in wood products. Once established, eradication is not practically feasible. Therefore, preventing entry of PWN into new areas is crucial. Entry risk analysis can assist in targeting management to reduce the probability of entry. Assessing the entry of PWN is challenging due to the complexity of the wood trade and the wood processing chain. In this paper, we develop a pathway model that describes the wood trade and wood processing chain to determine the structure of the entry process. We consider entry of PWN through imported coniferous wood from China, a possible origin of Portuguese populations, to Europe. We show that exposure increased over years due to an increase in imports of sawn wood. From 2000 to 2012, Europe received an estimated 84 PWN propagules from China, 88% of which arose from imported sawn wood and 12% from round wood. The region in Portugal where the PWN was first reported is among those with the highest PWN transfer per unit of imported wood due to a high host cover and vector activity. An estimated 62% of PWN is expected to enter in countries where PWN is not expected to cause the wilt of pine trees because of low summer temperatures (e.g., Belgium, Sweden, Norway). In these countries, PWN is not easily detected, and such countries can thus serve as potential reservoirs of PWN. The model identifies ports and regions with high exposure, which helps targeting monitoring and surveillance, even in areas where wilt disease is not expected to occur. In addition, we show that exposure is most efficiently reduced by additional treatments in the country of origin, and/or import wood from PWN-free zones. Pathway modelling assists plant health managers in analyzing risks along the pathway and planning measures for enhancing biosecurity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Keywords: field experience; inclusion; recruitment EN field experience inclusion recruitment 1 1 1 09/03/21 20210901 NES 210901 Ecologists play a crucial role in providing solutions to the challenges facing the world. Field experience, inclusion, recruitment They explore alternatives to a field experience as a gateway to a career in ecology or environmental sciences through, for example, data science or the social sciences. [Extracted from the article]

Accurate estimation of tree biomass is necessary to provide realistic values of the carbon stored in the terrestrial biosphere. A recognized source of errors in tree aboveground biomass ( AGB) estimation is introduced when individual tree height values ( H) are not directly measured but estimated from diameter at breast height ( DBH) using allometric equations. In this paper, we evaluate the performance of 12 alternative DBH : H equations and compare their effects on AGB estimation for three tropical forests that occur in contrasting climatic and altitudinal zones. We found that fitting a three-parameter Weibull function using data collected locally generated the lowest errors and bias in H estimation, and that equations fitted to these data were more accurate than equations with parameters derived from the literature. For computing AGB, the introduced error values differed notably among DBH : H allometric equations, and in most cases showed a clear bias that resulted in either over- or under-estimation of AGB. Fitting the three-parameter Weibull function minimized errors in AGB estimates in our study and we recommend its widespread adoption for carbon stock estimation. We conclude that many previous studies are likely to present biased estimates of AGB due to the method of H estimation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Areas of high biodiversity often coincide with communities living in extreme poverty. As a livelihood support, these communities often harvest wild products from the environment. But harvest activities can have negative impacts on fragile and globally important ecosystems. This paper examines trade-offs in ecological protection and community welfare from the harvest of wild products. With a novel model and empirical evidence, I show that management of harvest activity does not always resolve these trade-offs. In a model of continuous harvests in a two-dimensional landscape, managed harvest activity improves welfare, but is uniformly bad for other ecosystem services that are sensitive to the presence (as opposed to the intensity) of human activity. Empirical results from a unique dataset of mushroom harvesters in Yunnan, China suggest more experienced, poorer, and more vulnerable individuals tend to rely on more distant harvests. Thus, policies that limit the extent of forest travel, such as protected areas, may protect fragile ecosystems but can have a disproportionately negative effect on those most vulnerable. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The most significant factors currently affecting the Pacific walrus ( Odobenus rosmarus divergens) population are climate change and consequent changes in sea-ice morphology and dynamics. This paper integrates recent physical sea-ice change in the Bering Sea with biological and ecological conditions of walruses in their winter-spring reproductive habitat. Historically, walrus in winter-spring depended on a critical mass of sea-ice habitat to optimize social networking, reproductive fitness, feeding behavior, migration, and energetic efficiency. During 2003-2013, our cross-disciplinary, multiscale analysis from shipboard observations, satellite imagery, and ice-floe tracking, reinforced by information from indigenous subsistence hunters, documented change of sea-ice structure from a plastic continuum to a 'mixing bowl' of ice floes moving more independently. This fragmentation of winter habitat preconditions the walrus population toward dispersal mortality and will also negatively affect the availability of resources for indigenous communities. We urge an expanded research and management agenda that integrates walrus natural history and habitat more completely with changing sea-ice morphology and dynamics at multiple scales, while also meeting the needs of local communities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]