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Examines the credibility imperative as an independent variable in explaining the foreign policy and international relations behavior of the U.S. Concepts of reputation and credibility as they relate to state behavior; Discussion of the dynamics of U.S. foreign policy; Effects of the credibility imperative on U.S. foreign policymakers since the end of the cold war.

The argument made in this paper is that there are multiple forces that shape U.S. foreign policy to Cuba. Some of these are inconsistent although many of the paradoxes are subtle and relegated to the background in the face of continuing and prominent debates on the critical role of ethnic group interests and domestic politics on U.S. foreign policy to Cuba. Indeed, of the multifarious approaches in the literary oeuvre on foreign policy, ethnic group interests and their influence on domestic politics provide some of the best explanations for U.S./Cuban relations in the post-Cold War era (Haney, Vanderbush, Walt, 1999). But beneath the iceberg of American Cuba policy, there is considerable movement. There are other forces at play which are not often highlighted in the literature and which suggest that inconsistencies may be more prevalent in U.S. foreign policy to Cuba than the theorists acknowledge. Indeed, even while arguing the predominant domestic politics explanation, U.S. policy to Cuba can be viewed a as a multi-level game. This is the position taken in this paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Actors are constituted in the international system by their interactions with other actors. Those interactions are the results of preferences and interests. But what are the sources of preferences and interests? Realism would have us believe that interests are universally determined by the needs of survival in a conflictive world. I have argued elsewhere (Roberts, 1997) that interests and preferences are socially constructed out of rules that define historic and cultural practice. This approach to rational-choice modeling demands that the analyst devote more time to understanding preferences and less time to deriving formulaic analysis of the strategic interaction itself. This paper will apply the analysis of socially constructed preferences to the decision by Romania to assist NATO during the 1999 campaign in Kosovo. This case study is well suited to the approach because historical analysis of Romanian interests should indicate interests favoring Serbia and opposing NATO. The post cold-war practices of European politics in which the decision was made, set up cognitive dissonance for Romanian foreign policy that redefined Romania as an international actor through its actions and preferences. The paper will examine the historical-cultural-political foundations for Romanian interests and apply them to a cooperative game between the NATO and Romania to explain Romania's decision to assist NATO during the Kosovo campaign. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Internet has become ubiquitous in colleges and universities. The Internet is used for research, communication, entertainment, and teaching and learning. This paper is an exploratory examination into using the Internet is in international relations courses. The focus in particular is on what works and what does not when using the Internet. This paper draws not only on the state of Internet pedagogy, but on my experiences in using the Internet. My conclusions reveal serious failings with the Internet as pedagogy. While the Internet allows for increased communication, it does not improve student performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

?Treaties between countries always raise questions as to the value of the agreement. How best to perform an evaluation to assess the value of a treaty is often a major question. Although other economic analogies are often used for national defense, this paper examines the Moscow Treaty through an application of portfolio analysis. Portfolio analysis, as developed by Harry Markowitz, seeks to understand the relationship between the expected return of an economic portfolio and the variance of the expected return. Although the expected return from the treaty can be viewed in economic terms, to go beyond this it is necessary to briefly discuss the role of a state. Thus the expected return in this analysis is more than a simple economic calculation. Expected return and variance, which Markowitz sees as competing goals in economic portfolios, are factors to be considered in an analysis of treaties. Using his assertion that an efficient portfolio is one with the greatest return at a given variance, the Moscow Treaty is examined as to how well it fulfills this function. From the United States? perspective, portfolio analysis shows that the Moscow Treaty increases the expected return from the national defense policy, although it does little to decrease the potential variance in the knowledge of or actual numbers of nuclear weapon systems. Based on the role of the state defined in this paper, the treaty can be judged as a legitimate action. However, if the Moscow Treaty is compared to previous treaties on offensive nuclear weapons, this type of analysis shows it to be less efficient than previous long-term treaties with fixed numbers of weapon systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The terrorist attacks of September 11, 2001, and subsequent actions by the Bush administration, remind us that the federal courts often are required to resolve questions of individual rights in lieu of foreign policy concerns. This paper explores judicial influences in foreign policy litigation across all three levels of the federal judiciary to determine whether judges systematically rule in favor of foreign affairs when confronted with civil liberties challenges. Using an original dataset of federal cases from 1946-2000, the paper provides evidence that the federal judiciary is extremely deferential to governmental authority in the conduct of foreign relations. While the federal judiciary is prone to support foreign policy interests, it is important to understand the conditions under which these judges will rule in favor of civil liberties claims. An important influence is the ideological preferences of judges. The empirical results indicate that more liberal judges -- as measured by partisan affiliations of the appointing president -- are more likely to render decisions in favor of civil liberties. This result holds for each level of the federal judiciary, although the results are more pronounced in the Supreme Court, less so for the Appeals Courts, and the weakest for District Courts. A second important influence involves the presence of a national security defense. The empirical data suggest that lower court judges are significantly affected by these situations; systematically ruling in favor of foreign affairs. However, Supreme Court justices do not respond in a similar fashion; the presence of a specific national security defense is not significantly related to judicial decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses an important question in studies of presidential approval: do crises associated with foreign policy, specifically those associated with the use of military force, result in a "rally-around-the flag" which inflates a president's popularity? Much of the extant literature suggests it does; however, this question has not been definitively resolved empirically. Moreover, the question has always assumed that the phenomena will be an across-the-board concept. In this paper I posit that changes in presidential popularity--such as the rally effect--should be disaggregated by partisanship. Testing whether a rally event had an impact upon presidential approval through techniques of time series analysis from 1953 through 1994, it is argued that the impact of the rally phenomena has been overstated. I argue that in any study involving changes in presidential popularity, the dependent variable should be disaggregated in an effort to move towards an individual level explanation of variation in presidential approval ratings. Results of this study indicate that the rally effect has been exaggerated, at least in the utilization of military force. The findings raise theoretically significant issues concerning the conventional wisdom that the public tends to rally 'round presidents when military force is used overseas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The primary objective of this paper is to gain a meaningful understanding of how security relationships develop between former colonies and their former colonizers. Identifying the conditions that prompt a former colony to reject a security partnership with its former colonizer, and, in contrast, the factors that encourage a former colony to embrace a security relationship with its former colonizer will expand one's understanding of the nature of security relations within international politics. Northeast Asia's political climate presents a fascinating case study to examine the politics of alignment. Specifically, this paper aims to first peer through the lens of Korea and Taiwan's unique colonial experiences under Japanese rule to provide historical context to understand why the ROK and Japan struggle to develop a robust military relationship despite perceiving some external threats in the region similarly, and, in contrast, why Taiwan welcomes a security partnership with Japan today. However, this does not mean that Japan and the ROK do not work together to advance each other's interests totally, nor does this study suggest that Japan and Taiwan do not face conflicts of interest. To achieve a more comprehensive understanding of Japan's relationship with Korea and Taiwan, this paper also considers how Seoul and Taipei's unique colonial experiences and contemporary security relationships with Japan affect cooperation across diplomatic channels and economic partnerships. This study also acknowledges that assessing Japan's relationships with Korea and Taiwan prior to the colonial period would be insightful, though it will focus primarily from 1895 to the present. In particular, four critical factors help to explain Japan-ROK's toxic security relationship and Japan-Taiwan's strong, albeit, de facto security partnership: 1) national identity shaped by each country's unique colonial experience under Japanese rule, 2) the United States' managerial role across both of its security triangles in Northeast Asia, 3) shared perceptions of common threats, and 4) the politics of formal military alliances versus the politics of de facto security partnerships. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do some states seem to possess much greater bargaining power than would be suggested by their size or military capability? How can a small asymmetrically dependent state increase its leverage over other states? Power remains one of the most used, yet least studied concepts in international relations. These are merely a few of the empirical anomalies arising from the standard conceptions of power found in the literature. This lack of clarity about one of political science's key concepts arises from the fact that power is notoriously difficult to measure and observe. In this paper, I focus on one observable measure of power - possession of natural resources - in order to highlight a key flaw of previous studies of power: that power tends to be treated as a purely relational concept, relating only to bilateral relations between two states. I argue that third parties may alter this dynamic in ways which are currently poorly understood, thus providing some answers to the empirical puzzles outlined above. While natural resources are only one possible source of power, they provide an observable metric with which to assess how the involvement of third-party states may alter power relations. The paper will first test statistically whether small resource-rich states issue or receive more or fewer threats and sanctions than other comparable states, and then present a brief case-study of power dynamics in the Kazakhstan-Russia-China relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A conference paper about the Government Responsiveness prepared for the 2013 Annual Meeting of the Southern Political Science Association, Orlando, Florida in 2013 is presented. Topics discussed include empirical studies of the variation in government responsiveness, supremacy of domestic over foreign policy, and response of the government when public spending increases. Also discusses the contribution of the International Social Survey Programme on the issue.

This paper examines how Georgia politics have changed over the last 50 years as Republicans emerged in the south and eventually became the majority party within the region and the state of Georgia. How did the development of a competitive two party system change legislative majorities within the State House? This paper begins to answer that question by measuring the frequency of conflict in Georgia House roll call votes along partisan, racial and urban/rural cleavage lines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Narratives play a significant role in shaping identity and take central role in the traditions of the Acholi tribe in northern Uganda. This paper is a deconstructive feminist analysis of the Acholi genesis narrative of Labongo and the spear. Historical narratives frame complicated events and act as a guiding framework for group action and define notions of self, other and difference. The Acholi have been at the center of an ongoing twenty-six year conflict between the Lord's Resistance Army and the government of Uganda. Additionally, they have played a role in an even longer history of tumult and conflict in the country since independence in 1962. Drawing upon feminist and psychology literature, this paper examines the multiple meanings of this particular genesis narrative and has two major implications for conflict and security studies: narratives based on conflict have a self-perpetuating loop between reinforcement of warrior identity and conflict, and that historical myths can be politically manipulated to justify hostilities and violence. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper is both a political history as well as a methodological model for understanding the relationship between participation of religious actors and the continued existence of blue laws, which restrict alcohol sales on Sundays, in certain states but not in others. In order to do this, the paper will first review the history of the role of religion and politics in the United States with particular interest in regards to Sabbath laws and alcohol policies. Second, the paper will review the literature in regards to religion and political participation in order to demonstrate the role religious actors have had in regards to public policy. Finally, this paper will propose a model and method by which to explore the association between religious participation and the continuing existence of blue laws in some states but not in others. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scholars debate the significance of political entrepreneurship at the international and supranational levels, wherein ambitious individual agents are supposed to develop and propose policy in the interstices of traditional, formal governing structures. Although a long stream of scholars have called attention to the increasing prevalence of this practice, others have offered evidence that such political entrepreneurship is only a rare supplement to traditional intergovernmental statecraft. Beyond this, however, there has been little concerted effort to theorize a wide range of outcomes in entrepreneurial efforts at the international level and to specify precisely the conditions under which one of several particular outcomes is most likely. In a modest effort toward filling this gap, the present paper offers a formal model of the relationship between an international political Entrepreneur and a Chief of Government (CoG) and generates a series of hypotheses about how the distribution of information and the relative values for costs and payoffs affect the outcome of their strategic interaction. Hypotheses are considered in light of evidence from the history of the European Communities. The paper demonstrates that strategic interaction and information asymmetries are theoretically and empirically significant components of international political entrepreneurship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In response to the recent coup in Niger, which ousted the country's president-turned-strongman Mamadou Tandja, the capital erupted in pro-coup demonstrations with many commentators and foreign governments showing tacit support for the junta. What is the likelihood that this coup and the other coup regimes in Africa will lead to the institutionalization of durable and stable democracies? Based on historical analysis of the past African coups that led to brief democratic transitions, this paper argues that it is unlikely. Moreover, to fully debunk the myth of the so-called "good" coup d'état in Africa, this paper will also demonstrate that coups, which consolidate governing authority during state failure, lead to institutionalized autocracies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines China's accession to WTO (World Trade Organization) through power transition theory. According to the power transition theory, some states that belong to the category of great powers are dissatisfied with the current international order as their national power is increased through industrialization. These states challenge the dominant nation, which leads the international order. Keeping world peace or the stability of the current order depends on whether the tension between a challenger and a supreme power is controlled or not. This theory explains the conflicts between a challenger, China, and a dominant nation, the United States, in the issue of China's accession to WTO. Since the Republic of China had developed rapidly through 'reform and open policy', the tension in the U.S.-China trade had increased. Thus, China was dissatisfied with the fact that it was excluded from the WTO system. The United States decided to deal with China's dissatisfaction; hence, 15 years of negotiation for China's accession to the WTO was launched. During the negotiation, the tension between two nations arose over the surface, but finally, China was able to participate in the WTO in 2001. This paper is significant for two reasons. Firstly, China's accession to the WTO was a symbolic event in the U.S-China trade, which is the most important issue in the power relationship between the two nations. Secondly, it proves the tool of the 'power transition theory' that enhances the understanding of the political implication of China's accession to the WTO. Although power transition theory has its own theoretical limitations, it explains that embedding China in the international trade order controlled by the United States is the question of not only economic gain and loss but also power politics. This is the main argument of this paper. The paper consists of three parts: 1) the summary of power transition theory; 2) its application and analysis for the case of China's accession to WTO; 3) argument; and 4) conclusion. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The 1994 "Treaty of Peace between the State of Israel and the Hashemite Kingdom of Jordan" prescribes "good neighborly relations of co-operation" and security between the two countries. Towards the goal of fulfilling the dictates of this treaty, the mayors of Muaz Ben Jabal (Jordan), the Bet She'an Valley Regional Council (Israel), and the Jordan Valley Regional Council (Israel) signed a 2007 memorandum of understanding (MOU) to build the Jordan River Peace Park (J.R. Peace Park). Joining other studies that consider the role of peace parks in fostering neighborly relations and cooperation (Ali 2007; R. Duffy 2007; T. Duffy 1997; Francis 2008; Hammill and Besancon 2007; Trisurat 2007; Van Amerom, Marloes and Buscher 2005), this study analyzes the J.R. Peace Park initiative in the context of the Middle East. Moreover, this research relates to the broader environment and security literature by investigating the role that environmental issues play in promoting inter-state cooperation. Since the J.R. Peace Park is still a "work in progress" initiative, the paper considers several other peace parks, examining how well such projects have worked towards advancing peace in the respective regions. Based on this comparative analysis, the paper then turns to the J.R. Peace Park, addresses lessons learned, and considers the future prospects of the J.R. Peace Park in promoting cooperation between Israel and Jordan. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Past attempts at defining American grand strategy rely too heavily upon the enunciation of hard power objectives as both a means for achieving goals and as the goals themselves. Alternatively, we recognize that a state's grand strategy is far more nuanced than simply an explanation of hard power objectives and that a more comprehensive viewpoint must be achieved as a starting point for analysts, scholars, and policy makers. Our paper seeks to define contemporary American grand strategy in a new and holistic analytical framework that recognizes the interrelated nature of the multitude of goals of the contemporary state. This framework for grand strategy is unique in both its comprehensiveness and flexibility, in that it is a totally "living document" - one that is not limited by perspective or time for analysis. Therefore, even though our current paper focuses on the significant shift in modern American grand strategy in the Obama administration, its core model can be applied to any state, at any time in history. Our three tiered model rests upon the five Elements of defense, diplomacy, economics, environment, and ideology, which together form the basic analytical lens for interpreting any event of grand strategic importance. From this analytical foundation stems the Principle layer, which consists of hard power, soft power, multilateralism, humanitarian leadership, and natural resource security. This layer forms the organizational basis for our paper and is essentially universal as interpretive mechanisms in that they are flexible enough to interpret grand strategy from any perspective, be it modern Chinese goals or those of ancient Athens and Sparta. Finally, we recognize that specific incidents in the international system are essentially combinations of the various principles and thus constitute a third Issues layer for specific examples. These three layers - Elements, Principles, and Issues - all combine to produce a country's multifaceted and comprehensive grand strategy. In our current paper, we use the model to analyze the grand strategic shift in American grand strategy from the Bush administration to the Obama administration. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power Transition Theory" (PTT) demonstrates the powerful and systemic research. Their deduction of the occurrence of wars almost perfectly matches with the real world. However, there are still several cases that rising states did not challenge hegemons as PTT predicted, even if the capabilities of challengers are bigger than the hegemon. It seems to be an anomaly in PTT. But, this paper will show it is not an anomaly in PTT after clarifying the basic assumption that state is a rational, unify actor, which will try to maximize its utility.Furthermore, the scholars of PTT only noticed the war options of actors; they ignored other possible options for the actors. Through rational choice approach, this paper will present an interaction framework of the hegemons and challengers while the capabilities of challengers are bigger than hegemons. Then, we will find the interaction of the players act more likely as PTT predicts. In doing so, the interaction framework will be expected to cumulate PTT in both additive and integrative way. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract: Asian balance of power is changing rapidly due to rapid and simultaneous rise of the two Asian powers, China and India. Both countries have great power ambition and potentiality. They have more than one billion people, huge and rising economy, and growing military, industrial, and scientific capabilities. Their large geographical size and geo-strategic location also make them key actors in Asian politics. Future Asian security, stability and peace will absolutely depend on the relationship between these two countries. The question is: how these two countries have been engaging with one another since the end of the Cold War? What factors influencing their relations? This paper discusses these two questions. The paper is divided into the following sections: section one looks at the brief history of the relationship; section two discusses positive aspects of their relationship; section three examines negative aspects of their future relationship; and last section synthesizes the paper and makes a conclusion.Key Words: China, India, Sino-Indian relations, Asian balance of power, peace, and stability. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research examines China's Southeast Asia policy by applying game theory simulation to clarify the rationale of China's foreign policy towards its Southern neighboring countries during the post-Cold War period. This paper argues that there has been a consistency between China's grand foreign strategy and China's Southeast Asia policy. For China, the primary goal is to seize the peaceful international environment for economic development, which has been the most critical strategic concerns dominating China's proactive diplomatic actions in Southeast Asia. On the other hand, this consideration also constrains China's military expansionism in the South China Sea disputes. By applying multiple games simulation, this research respectively investigates China's good-neighborliness policy toward Southeast Asia, its policy towards the South China Sea disputes, and China's multilateralism in terms of joining ARF (ASEAN Regional Forum) and ASEAN plus one (China), as well as its initiative of China-ASEAN FTA. The findings demonstate that China's Southeast Asia policy has been consistently constrained by its grand strategy consideration. China's proactive multilateralism and its self-restraint on the South China Sea dispute are a two-edge sword serving the objectives of its grand strategy, which leads China to willingly sacrifice the short-term interests, and to focus on the long-term gains. Nevertheless, this paper also argues that China's Southeast Asia policy could be a useful indicator to sense the possible change of China's grand strategy. The game theory simulation demonstrates the close links and mutual interactions between those two policy areas. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recent work in international relations has suggested that norms and law can sometimes hold a constraining effect in the realm of international security, contra the expectations of realist theories. This paper evaluates U.S. compliance with one such norm, that of noncombatant immunity, in recent military engagements, while articulating a general theory of state compliance with international law. In contrast to recent work that finds a high level of compliance with the norm of noncombatant immunity in the ongoing Iraq conflict, I argue, drawing evidence from several recent but concluded conflicts, that a more complete assessment of compliance must begin by considering the contentious aspects of a norm's definition. After probing the sources of ambiguity and interpretive dispute in the international law of noncombatant immunity, I argue that U.S. compliance with the norm of noncombatant immunity in the First Gulf War and the Kosovo intervention paralleled the clarity of the relevant normative obligation. Where clarity was high (such as on the obligation not to intentionally target groups of civilians), U.S. compliance was likewise high, whereas where the obligation remained ambiguous (such as on the necessary precautions required to avoid unintentional but expected civilian casualties), U.S. compliance was more limited. I then present a theory suggesting that states may make strategic use of normative ambiguity to balance a minimum level of politically useful compliance with other competing goals, such as force protection and military effectiveness. The paper concludes by considering what these findings suggest about the role of norms in international security. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The issue outlined in this paper is that U.S. democracy promotion in Africa occurs only when it is convenient for the superpower from the West. Analyzing the countries that comprise the Gulf of Guinea – which share commonalities of recently discovered oil reserves, marginally democratic or nondemocratic regimes, and friendly relations with the U.S. - this paper illustrates how U.S. foreign policy continues to be shaped more by motives of self-interest than by real concern for the promotion of democracy and constitutional liberalism. The gap that exists between political rhetoric and policy is especially noteworthy in the wake of the September 11 attacks and the increased focus of the U.S. on democracy promotion in the Middle East. Given the renewed efforts to thwart terrorism by pressuring authoritarian regimes to open up politically and increase human liberties, the ongoing friendly relations between the U.S. and authoritarian regimes in arenas outside the Middle East border on hypocrisy. Despite recent rhetoric by U.S. policymakers concerning freedom and human rights advancements in Africa, actual U.S. policy in the Gulf of Guinea region belies the fact that U.S. economic interests still subvert the professed desire to see democracy succeed on a global scale. United States involvement in the Gulf of Guinea has important implications for the ability of individual countries in the region to avoid the ‘resource curse’ and to establish viable institutions. ..PAT.-Conference Proceeding [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Legislative delay has been overlooked as a signal of commitment to abide by the terms of an international agreement. Nations face varied international and domestic pressures to formalize international conventions. I argue that this struggle between competing pressures reveals the intentions of each nation to abide by the terms of the agreement. Previous studies of legislative delay neglect important variables, suffer from restrictive assumptions, and fail to frame legislative delay as part of a two stage game. This paper uses the case of the Basel Convention to support my hypotheses. I use Kaplan-Meier and Cox-proportional hazard models to estimate the proportional effects of international and domestic political pressures and resource constraints on legislative delay. After controlling for the type of ratification, legislative delay is a function of previous domestic regulations in the same policy space and the regulatory quality of the nation. These factors signal satisfaction with the convention and represent significant commitments to abiding by its terms. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This project attempts to explain what drives media coverage of international disputes. The coverage of disputes is very important in determining the salience of foreign policy by providing information to the general public of foreign events. In this paper I argue that there are three factors driving the amount of coverage a dispute receives. The first issue is the intensity of the dispute, particularly whether or not the dispute involves fatalities. The higher levels of intensity results in a greater amount of coverage. The second issue is the states that are involved in the dispute. The final issue is whether or not the United States was the initiator or the target in the dispute. The findings generally illustrate that intensity does drive the coverage but there is significant randomness in the amount of coverage a dispute receives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The increasing rivalries between China and U.S. starting from economic issues, diffusing to political and military dimensions, reassure the rational solutions presumed by power transition theory. By examining the combined effects of international systemic structure, international context, the impact of Chinese democratization, the changing share of national capability, Chinese nationalism, and domestic politics, the paper builds an empirical model to analyze how these factors shape the patterns of Sino-American Conflict over time. The model identifies a new pattern of conflict due to the increasing interdependence of economy and specifies that comprehensive engagement enhances rather than threats to U.S. leading power. Therefore the model predicts more cooperation than confrontation in Sino-U.S. relations in the near future. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper, I examine the effects of interstate and domestic armed conflict on bilateral trade levels. Almost all current research on the relationship between trade and conflict examines only the direct influence of conflict on trade. I argue that this research underestimates the effects of armed conflict on trade and show how both conflict and the belief among economic actors that conflict is likely in the future should depress trade levels. Within a gravity model of bilateral trade, armed violence increases the costs of production and exchange to firms, which reduces the profits of traders. If one also assumes firms are strategic actors that maximize both current and future returns from trade and rational forecasters of future armed conflicts, rational expectations of domestic and interstate conflict will limit bilateral trade among states even in the absence of overt violence. Expectations of future conflicts by firms increase the transportation, transaction, and production costs of trade, reducing the supply of goods to foreign markets. Thus, I propose that contemporaneous trade levels will be negatively related to expectations about future domestic and interstate conflicts as well as existing armed conflict. Using bilateral trade data from 1950-2000, I conduct empirical tests of the hypotheses that domestic and interstate armed conflicts, and expectations of these conflicts, deter bilateral trade. The results provide support for my hypotheses; extant armed conflict and the expectation of future conflict have a statistically significant negative influence on trade levels. Therefore, this research advances our understanding of the trade-conflict relationship by demonstrating both theoretically and empirically how higher expectations about future conflicts can reduce bilateral trade levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A major lesson of the scientific study of war is that different wars have different causes. Related to this lesson is the belief that war is multicausal and that there are different paths to war. Both these claims imply the need to create a typology of war. This paper will delineate a typology of interstate wars and classify wars from 1816-1997 according to type. We first divide the wars according to whether they are fought by two parties (dyadic wars) or multiple parties (complex wars) that might involve contagion processes. We next use the territorial explanation of war to distinguish wars that arise out of territorial disputes as opposed to policy or regime disputes. Other variables used to further refine the typology are the use of power politics practices before the war (alliances, arms races, and recurring disputes that produc [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper will examine the relationship between Russia and China after the collapse of the Soviet Union in terms of the possible and desired polar structures of the international system. It aims to answer the following questions: What are the bases of the Russo-Chinese partnership/alliance evident after the mid-1990s? Was this partnership designed as an anti-hegemonic coalition? How was the partnership affected by September 11th? How has the war in Iraq affected the logic of the Russo-Chinese partnership? What are the systemic implications for the relationship between the United States, China, and Russia? [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

While a strong empirical consensus has emerged in international relations that commerce promotes peace, this literature still faces an important historical challenge. The first period of globalization dating from the middle of the nineteenth century until 1914 stands out as perhaps the Achilles' heel of liberal international relations theory. Dramatic economic integration in the previous half century failed to prevent the outbreak of war in 1914. In this paper, we respond to this criticism with the help of a newly constructed data set and a theoretical revision grounded in standard trade theory that leads us to rethink and compare some of the more popular causal mechanisms offered to explain a liberal peace among states. Tested across multiple research designs, we find that the expansion of free trade, or a reduction in barriers to commerce, decreased the willingness of governments to initiate military conflict against other states from 1865 until 1918. The basic logic of commercial liberalism holds during this first era of globalization: free trade promotes peace. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Constructivist theories of securitization are built on a foundation of communicative action tenets. While this represents an important and innovative advance in international relations theory, securitization ignores some of the components involved in a successful communicative act. Williams (2003) calls for securitization theory to incorporate the hitherto ignored effects of mass media and in this paper we answer this call. We first show that securitization's specification of leaders' speech acts and audiences' legitimative discourse presumes mass media actors are indifferent in how they convey leader representations and justifications of crises. We take this presumption as an empirical question and execute a study of whether the national presses of ally countries differently emphasized the frames Bush invoked in their news coverage of key September 11th speeches. We show from comparisons of chi-square distributions and regression analyses that, far from being passive conveyers of speech frames, the national presses of the US, Canada, France, Britain and Ireland (1) did not convey all of Bush's securitizing problem representations and response justifications proportionate to the extent Bush invoked them in his speeches, and (2) that for each national press factors based on professional norms and/or organizational routines increased the likelihood that a speech sentence would be conveyed in a news story. We discuss the implications of our findings for how securitization theory should conceptualize media actors when redressing this gap in its explanatory models. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this paper we discuss the links between electoral politics and US policy toward Cuba during the current Bush administration. After a 2000 presidential election that was decided in the end by a few hundred disputed ballots in the state of Florida, the conventional wisdom that Cuba policy will continue to be heavily influenced by the electoral strength and interests of Cuban Americans in that state would seem to have been confirmed. Two years later, Florida?s 25th District featured a congressional race between two Cuban Americans competing to become the fourth member of that ethnic group in the US Congress. When Mario Diaz-Balart, an embargo supporter, defeated embargo critic Annie Betancourt by an overwhelming 65-35%, it apparently provided more evidence that the electoral calculus on Cuba policy would continue to favor the embargo for the foreseeable future. And the President?s brother, a long time friend of pro-embargo Cuban Americans, comfortably won reelection as governor of Florida in that same 2002 election. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper advances a definition of "conflict personalization" and suggests some future directions for research. Specifically, I argue that conflict personalization occurs when the leader of one country defines a political or territorial conflict as a dispute with the leader of another state, rather than a dispute with the entire polity. Moreover, when a conflict is personalized, a leader has a tendency to view his or her counterpart as driven by irrational motives. Using literature from social psychology, linguistics, and international relations, I outline a definition of conflict personalization, and suggest some hypotheses about the conditions under which it is likely to occur, as well as its consequences. I conclude by suggesting directions for research on this topic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

José Martí, a founding father of Cuba's revolutionary movements, wrote in 1891, "Poisonous luxury, the enemy of freedom, corrupts the frivolous and opens the door to the foreigner." This quote characterizes the modern dilemma for Cuba's leaders: how do you open a small state to the flows of globalization while preserving the fundamental culture and character of the society? As a last bastion of socialism in a world of increasingly liberal markets, the Cuban people take great pride in their historical resistance to imperialism; their rejection of capitalist economic competition; and their distinctive successful model of education, health, and distribution of wealth. Since 1959, the Cubans have embraced their revolution and see the process as ongoing. But the allure of social networking, market-based consumerism, and poisonous luxury may be too strong for the young generations of Cubans to ignore. This paper will explain Cuba's revolutionary movement in a historical context of resistance and identify the challenges that globalization and global integration pose for the future of Cuba's political, social, and economic systems. During the 2015-16 academic year, Niagara University faculty and students will travel to Cuba to study these issues and how community organizations have overcome the challenges of embargoes and the stigma of being labeled a State Sponsor of Terrorism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A conference paper on issues related to relations between European Union (EU) and Russia is presented. Topics discussed include issues related to the Cold War, capitalism and the Soviet communism, the need of implementing liberal democracy in Russia and differences between Russia and EU on the basis of economics, freedom and justice. Also mentions issues related to Ukraine and Azerbaijan and its impact on Russia-EU relations.

The following paper seeks to address the question of whether the current U.S. administration's use of the term "human security" reflects a change in foreign policy direction. Is the State department's emphasis on smart power (diplomacy, development and defense) as well as the increasing use of the term 'human security' in State and Defense departments' briefings, reports and budget request an indication of a shift in policy, away from over-reliance on unilateralism and towards inclusive multilateral security cooperation? In order to develop a framework through which these questions can be answered, this paper will examine the use of the concept of human seucirty under the current administration in order to assess whether the 'smart power' foreign policy agenda reflects a break from past policy. To this end, the paper is divided into three main parts. Part one will examine the development of the concept of human security in order to see what the concept adds to the debate on national security. In part two, the paper will trace the use of the term by the current administration and examine whether in conjunction with a greater reliance on multilateral fora, the focus on human security represents a change from past foreign policy. Finally, by discussing U.S. policy against the wider literature on human security, the paper will assess whether the concept as well as the practice of human security can help overcome the security challenges of the 21st century. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The connections between public opinion and foreign policy options of states is, among other factors, most extensively researched but is not clearly understood. These linkages become even more complicated when the focus is on emerging, developing states with their underdeveloped public accountability institutions and opinion survey infrastructure. In this paper, I investigate the nexus between American public opinion research practices and their extension to emerging powers to study foreign policy. I suggest that the theoretical approaches most useful to support this alternative combination of analytic tools are foreign policy analysis (FPA) and domestic constructivism. Together, they generate valid and reliable empirical findings. I measure this nexus through sequential, mixed-method research with a case study of India. I use discourse analysis to capture mass values as the first research tool, and use a large-n survey to assess the public?s opinion on foreign policy in the second phase. The findings show clear and significant correlations between mass values and public opinion and India?s foreign policy options. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the extensive public communication efforts of James Madison to move the U.S. toward war with Great Britain in the War of 1812. Madison employed various techniques, including public letters and numerous pro-war commentaries that were published in his presidential newspaper. The research findings demonstrate that Madison was a far more active leader as president than is commonly thought. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Beginning in 1939, many U.S. states have adopted the legislative veto to empower lawmakers with the authority to directly affect administrative rulemaking. At present, 23 states allow its legislature to veto or temporarily suspend agency rules. As one would expect, the significant differences in oversight procedures that exist across the states has resulted in extraordinarily dissimilar histories and experiences regarding this unique oversight mechanism. This paper builds on existing research by using data on all states from 1934 to 2010 to analyze variations across state legislatures regarding their veto powers. The primary findings from this analysis suggest that the presence of divided government affects the likelihood that a state will adopt a nullification veto system, but does not influence suspension veto system adoption. The condition most likely to result in the adoption of a legislative veto reform is the presence of Democratic majorities in the state legislature serving alongside a Republican governor. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Recently, scholars have turned to examining non-material determinants of conflict outcomes; however, their studies are limited in that these determinants are discussed only at war level, and accordingly, the importance of the art of war at battle level is overlooked. In this respect, Biddle's (2004) attempt to overcome such a lacuna in the literature is of critical importance. "Modern system force employment", he argues, affects the outcome of battles by damping the effects of numerical and technological superiority. However the empirical test of this argument was limited largely because of the unavailability of battle-level data. Thus, I compile a new battle data set, which I call BMW (Battles of Modern Warfare). Using the BMW data set, this paper finds that when an attacker using modern system force employment fights against a defender not using it, the attacker/defender loss exchange ratio (LER) decreases. On the contrary, if an attacker without employing modern system force employment assaults against a defender using it, the LER increases. (This latter finding is not statistically significant, though.) In short, using modern system force employment helps to reduce the loss of either attacker or defender. This pilot study contribute to our understanding of military effectiveness and conflict outcomes by shedding light on the importance of human factors using tactics and operational arts in battlefield outcomes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the past 10 years Brazil has engaged extensively in Middle Eastern politics. Though engaging in this part of the world has not been cost free, it has also provided benefits to the Brazilian state. This current behavior of Brazil deviates from past deeds in which the Brazilian state sought bilateral agreements with the U.S., all the while directing the bulk of its foreign policy away from areas that were considered sensitive to Washington. With the election of Lula Brazilian foreign policy changed. It took a more assertive role in foreign affairs, and as consequence challenged the primacy of U.S. foreign policy. This paper analyzes three cases in which Brazilian foreign policy challenged the U.S.: the Iraq War, Palestinian statehood, and the Iranian nuclear program. It is my contention that Brazilian assertiveness in this three areas derives not from any first order material incentive. Rather, I argue, recent Brazilian foreign policy is directed towards building consensual hegemony. This consensual hegemony is a perfect fit for the political platform of the Brazilian Worker's Party which is based upon opposition of the powerful. Therefore, Brazil opposition to the coercive hegemony of the U.S. is used to build its own consensual hegemony amongst the developing world. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Westphalian style of state building has been the main method of state construction ever since the peace of Westphalia. This system of construction is being replaced by the fragmentation of states into zones or territories that continue to have substantial geopolitical importance, which depict the motivations behind relations between states. This paper will show how the establishment of Israel has rearranged the traditional mode of state building. International institutions are now taking a bigger role in building states externally. Borders are becoming more less important as territory becomes more structured externally. Critical geopolitics offers a way to examine state building in a structural way, and sets up certain ways to define territory in this new age of geopolitical analysis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

For Edward Hallett Carr in his seminal work, The Twenty Years' Crisis (1939), "the true problem of peaceful change is, in national politics, how to effect necessary and desirable change without revolution and, in international politics, how to effect such changes without war." This work will establish a 'power-benefits ratio' which reflects the changing dynamics of international power created by differing rates of economic growth among great powers. When the rising and increasing power of one political entity, relative to other members of an international system, is not adequately reflected in an increase in benefits conferred, that power tends toward dissatisfaction. Left without recourse to address a perceived injustice, the rising power, given the differential in economic rates of growth, soon becomes powerful enough to force change. Hence, as the rising power becomes dissatisfied and now in possession to do something about it, the probability of systemic conflict increases. A hypothesis is that the creation of a peaceful mechanism for international change begins with the acknowledgement of the changing power-benefits ratio and the need for effective and peaceful adjustment. A stable international system requires what E. H. Carr called 'a common feeling of what is right,' and as a result establishing morality as a guiding principle of the newly emerging global order. Necessary, but for Carr insufficient, the nature and significance of power must also be incorporated into the peaceful change mechanism. Incorporating these ideas, the paper will present a political policy spectrum based on power transition theory and leading toward the establishment of a mechanism for effective change in global politics and security. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on a research paper related to Phoenix, Arizona, for addressing concern towards its political history. It informs that mayor council system operated the community for 33 years and in the year 1913 council manager government was formed under charter reform. It informs that Terry Goddard, Mayor of Phoenix, led an electoral battle in 1977 for changing the council elections and then he brought the power of Phoenix 40 which is a coalition of influential businessman.

While many scholars and analysts remain skeptical of the notion that an under-developed state like Burma could develop a nuclear weapons capability, they need only look to the success of North Korea and South Africa in developing nuclear weapons despite facing substantial economic barriers and severe international isolation. The purpose of my paper is to provide a threat assessment of a 'Burma with the Bomb' with the hopes of catalyzing further research and analysis specifically regarding nuclear proliferation in Burma and Southeast Asia. I examine Burma's likely reasoning for seeking a nuclear weapons capability as well as the potential domestic and international implications thereof. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior studies have focused heavily on one dimension of democratic attitude (support for democracy over authoritarianism) and neglected its multidimensional nature. Conceptually, this study proposes a hierarchical model of democratic attitude consisting of three components: affection, cognition, and conation toward democracy at the regime level. Substantially, the present paper shows that global mass publics have strong conation to live in democracy but their affective commitment toward democracy and cognitive knowledge of democracy are limited. Empirically, the democratic attitude and its components are shaped by self-expression values, education, non-voting participation, and evaluation of democratic performance. However, these common determinants have different effects across democratic attitude and its components. Overall, the empirical analysis suggests two implications: the three components of democratic attitude are distinct but related and democratic attitude is more comprehensive and complex than prior studies have identified. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Why do certain democratic transitions succeed, while others fail? In this paper I present an explanation to this question by highlighting how the international environment is able to influence the processes of democratic transition and domestic regime change. In seeking to add to previous contributions of regime change I propose an alternative approach where the domestic and international environment interact with each other, and where domestic groups and elites retain agency in determining their preferred post-transition regimes (with both positive and negative implications for democratic transition). I then explore the potential salience of this approach in a brief analysis of post Cold War democratization in Sub-Saharan Africa, as well as prospective avenues for further research within this period of regime change on the continent. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The article focuses on the paper highlighting role of knowledge in making decisions related with foreign policy issue. It reflects on the poll conducted in the U.S. in 2007 to demonstrate public opinion on Iraq war and according to the poll 50 percent of the population considers the decision to be wrong, only 39 percent agreed with government's decision. The article further discusses level of knowledge among public of the U.S. on Iraq conflict.

Judicial behavior scholars have traditionally relied on policy preferences to predict the case votes of judges. Only recently have scholars focused on the potential influence of social groups on a judge's behavior (e.g., Baum 2006). This paper examines the influence of a salient social in-group, a political party, on the judicial decisionmaking process, after controlling for a judge's policy preferences. Specifically, I examine case votes of federal district court and courts of appeals judges between 1971 and 2007 in campaign finance cases to determine if the interests of their political party influence the judicial decision-making process. After controlling for a judge's policy preferences, I find that policy preferences only influence judicial behavior in cases where there is not a clear stake for a judge's political party. However, when a judge's political party has a stake in a given case, policy preferences no longer influence judicial behavior. Instead, the only statistically significant predictor is the outcome favored by the judge's political party. This study provides empirical evidence of an external group exerting influence on judicial behavior, after controlling for a judge's policy preferences. Furthermore, such influence raises normative concerns regarding the fair resolution of salient election law cases. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper constructs formal stochastic models of the elections in Great Britain in 2005 and 2010. The models include various kinds of valence, where valence is de?ned to be associated with the non policy considerations involving perceptions of party leaders. Valences can be (i) exogenous, held by all members of the electorate, and empirically estimated by the intercepts in a spatial model (ii) sociodemographic, associated with the various propensities of subgroups in the polity to choose one candidate over another (iii) determined by the perception of leader character traits. We consider a set of nested logit models involving these valences, as well as spatial cmponents inving policy differences between voters and party positions. We show the models involving traits are statistically signi?cant. However, spatial models involving traits and the spatial component are also significant. We compare these models across the regions, England Scotland and Wales. We show first that a comparison of 2005 and 2010 indicates that all measures of Gordons Brown's valence was much lower than Tony Blair's valence in the earlier election. We also show that the vote maximizing equilibium positions of the parties were at the electoral origin in 2005. In 2010, however, the large traits differences between Brown and the other two leaders gives divergent equilibria, with Brown's equilibrium position relatively close to his estimated position. The higher valences of Clegg and Cameron suggest their equilibia are more or less symmetrically located in opposed quadrants of the policy space. We propose that the positions of the three major parties were influenced by the support offered by the activists to the parties. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]