President Bush, Cuba Policy, and US Elections.

In this paper we discuss the links between electoral politics and US policy toward Cuba during the current Bush administration. After a 2000 presidential election that was decided in the end by a few hundred disputed ballots in the state of Florida, the conventional wisdom that Cuba policy will continue to be heavily influenced by the electoral strength and interests of Cuban Americans in that state would seem to have been confirmed. Two years later, Florida?s 25th District featured a congressional race between two Cuban Americans competing to become the fourth member of that ethnic group in the US Congress. When Mario Diaz-Balart, an embargo supporter, defeated embargo critic Annie Betancourt by an overwhelming 65-35%, it apparently provided more evidence that the electoral calculus on Cuba policy would continue to favor the embargo for the foreseeable future. And the President?s brother, a long time friend of pro-embargo Cuban Americans, comfortably won reelection as governor of Florida in that same 2002 election. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]