Search

Background: The Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial (ISRCTN91899513) evaluated the alpha-glucosidase inhibitor acarbose, compared with placebo, in 6522 patients with coronary heart disease and impaired glucose tolerance in China and showed a reduced incidence of diabetes. We assessed the within-trial medical resource use and costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs)., Methods: Resource use data were collected prospectively within the ACE trial. Hospitalizations, medications, and outpatient visits were valued using Chinese unit costs. Medication use was measured in drug days, with cardiovascular and diabetes drugs summed across the trial by participant. Health-related quality of life was captured using the EuroQol-5 Dimension-3 Level questionnaire. Regression analyses were used to compare resource use, costs, and QALYs, accounting for regional variation. Costs and QALYs were discounted at 3% yearly., Results: Hospitalizations were 6% higher in the acarbose arm during the trial (rate ratio 1.06, p = .009), but there were no significant differences in total inpatient days (rate ratio 1.04, p = .30). Total costs per participant, including study drug, were significantly higher for acarbose (¥ [Yuan] 56 480, £6213), compared with placebo (¥48 079, £5289; mean ratio 1.18, p < 0.001). QALYs reported by participants in the acarbose arm (3.96 QALYs) were marginally higher than in the placebo arm (3.95 QALYs), but the difference was not statistically significant (0.01 QALYs; p = .58)., Conclusions: Acarbose, compared with placebo, participants cost more due to study drug costs and reported no statistically significant difference in QALYs. These higher within-trial costs could potentially be offset in future by savings from the acarbose-related lower incidence of diabetes., (© 2023 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes published by Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai Jiaotong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.)

Background and Aims: My Diabetes My Way (MDMW) is Scotland's interactive website and mobile app for people with diabetes and their caregivers. It contains multimedia resources for diabetes education and offers access to electronic personal health records. This study aims to assess the cost-utility of MDMW compared with routine diabetes care in people with type 2 diabetes who do not use insulin., Materials and Methods: Analysis used the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model 2. Clinical parameters of MDMW users (n = 2576) were compared with a matched cohort of individuals receiving routine care alone (n = 11 628). Matching criteria: age, diabetes duration, sex, and socioeconomic status. Impact on life expectancy, quality-adjusted life years (QALYs), and costs of treatment and complications were simulated over ten years, including a 10% sensitivity analysis., Results: MDMW cohort: 1670 (64.8%) men; average age 64.3 years; duration of diabetes 5.5 years. 906 (35.2%) women: average age 61.6 years; duration 4.7 years. The cumulative mean QALY (95% CI) gain: 0.054 (0.044-0.062) years. Mean difference in cost: -£118.72 (-£150.16 to -£54.16) over ten years. Increasing MDMW costs (10%): -£50.49 (-£82.24-£14.14). Decreasing MDMW costs (10%): -£186.95 (-£218.53 to -£122.51)., Conclusions: MDMW is "dominant" over usual care (cost-saving and life improving) in supporting self-management in people with type 2 diabetes not treated with insulin. Wider use may result in significant cost savings through delay or reduction of long-term complications and improved QALYs in Scotland and other countries. MDMW may be among the most cost-effective interventions currently available to support diabetes.

The successful development of an economic model for the evaluation of future Alzheimer's disease (AD) interventions is critical to accurately inform policy makers and payers. As our understanding of AD expands, this becomes an increasingly complex and challenging goal. Advances in diagnostic techniques for AD and the prospect of disease-modifying treatments raise an urgent need to define specifications for future economic models and to ensure that the necessary data to populate them are available. This Perspective article provides expert opinions from health economists and governmental agency representatives on how future economic models for AD might be structured, validated, and reported. We aim to stimulate much-needed discussion about the detailed specification of future health economic models for AD., Competing Interests: Filipa Landeiro has been funded by a grant from Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No 116020 (ROADMAP). Jasmine Morton: none exist. Anders Gustavsson is a partner of Quantify Research, providing consultancy services to pharmaceutical companies and other private and public organizations and institutions. AG's contribution to ROADMAP was on behalf of Roche Pharmaceuticals. Michele Potashman is an employee of Biogen and owns stock in Biogen. She owns stock in a variety of companies that at times include other pharmaceutical and health care–related companies. Pascal Lecomte is employed by, owns stock in, and has stock options in Novartis Pharma AG. Mark Belger is a full‐time employee and shareholder of Eli Lilly and Company. Robin Thompson is an employee of Biogen and owns stock in Biogen. Emilse Roncancio‐Diaz is employed by GE Healthcare. Gurleen Jhuti is employed by F. Hoffmann‐La Roche Ltd. Christopher Butler: none exist. Linus Jönsson is employed by H. Lundbeck A/S. Ron Handels has received grants from ROADMAP (Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking 2016‐2018); consulting fees from Piramal, Roche, and Eisai; grants from Horizon 2020, JPND Joint Programming Neurodegenerative Disease Research, IMI Innovative Medicines Initiative, and national, European and patient charity funding organizations and private–public collaborations (ZonMw Netherlands; Alzheimer Netherlands; Dutch Flutemetamol Study; Alzheimer Research UK; Swedish National study on Aging and Care; European Brain Council). Alastair M. Gray has received a grant from Innovative Medicines Initiative 2 Joint Undertaking under grant agreement No 116020 (ROADMAP). A.M.G. is partially supported by the National Institute for Health Research Biomedical Research Centre at the University of Oxford (grant number NIHR‐BRC‐1215‐20008). Author disclosures are available in the supporting information., (© 2022 The Authors. Alzheimer's & Dementia: Translational Research & Clinical Interventions published by Wiley Periodicals LLC on behalf of Alzheimer's Association.)

Background: We estimate health-related quality of life and the impact of four cardiovascular events (myocardial infarction [MI], stroke, congestive heart failure, angina) and gastrointestinal events in 6522 Chinese patients with coronary heart disease (CHD) and impaired glucose tolerance (IGT) participating in the Acarbose Cardiovascular Evaluation (ACE) trial., Methods: Health-related quality of life was captured using the EuroQol-5 Dimension-3 Level (EQ-5D-3L), with data collected at baseline and throughout the trial. Multilevel mixed-effects linear regression with random effects estimated health-related quality of life over time, capturing variation between hospital sites and individuals, and a fixed-effects linear model estimated the impact of cardiovascular and gastrointestinal events., Results: Patients were followed for a median of 5 years (interquartile range 3.4-6.0). The average baseline EQ-5D score of 0.930 (SD 0.104) remained relatively unchanged over the trial period with no evidence of statistically significant differences in EQ-5D score between randomized treatment groups. The largest decrement in the year of an event was estimated for stroke (-0.107, P < .001), followed by heart failure (-0.039, P = .022), MI (-0.021, P = .047), angina (-0.012, P = .047), and gastrointestinal events (-0.005, P = .430). MI and stroke reduced health-related quality of life beyond the year in which the event occurred (-0.031, P = .006, and -0.067, P < .001, respectively)., Conclusions: Acarbose treatment had no impact on health-related quality of life in ACE trial participants with CHD and IGT. Events such as MI, stroke, heart failure, and angina reduce health-related quality of life around the time they occurred, but only MI and stroke impacted on longer-term health-related quality of life., (© 2022 The Authors. Journal of Diabetes published by Ruijin Hospital, Shanghai JiaoTong University School of Medicine and John Wiley & Sons Australia, Ltd.)

Importance: Transcatheter aortic valve implantation (TAVI) is a less invasive alternative to surgical aortic valve replacement and is the treatment of choice for patients at high operative risk. The role of TAVI in patients at lower risk is unclear., Objective: To determine whether TAVI is noninferior to surgery in patients at moderately increased operative risk., Design, Setting, and Participants: In this randomized clinical trial conducted at 34 UK centers, 913 patients aged 70 years or older with severe, symptomatic aortic stenosis and moderately increased operative risk due to age or comorbidity were enrolled between April 2014 and April 2018 and followed up through April 2019., Interventions: TAVI using any valve with a CE mark (indicating conformity of the valve with all legal and safety requirements for sale throughout the European Economic Area) and any access route (n = 458) or surgical aortic valve replacement (surgery; n = 455)., Main Outcomes and Measures: The primary outcome was all-cause mortality at 1 year. The primary hypothesis was that TAVI was noninferior to surgery, with a noninferiority margin of 5% for the upper limit of the 1-sided 97.5% CI for the absolute between-group difference in mortality. There were 36 secondary outcomes (30 reported herein), including duration of hospital stay, major bleeding events, vascular complications, conduction disturbance requiring pacemaker implantation, and aortic regurgitation., Results: Among 913 patients randomized (median age, 81 years [IQR, 78 to 84 years]; 424 [46%] were female; median Society of Thoracic Surgeons mortality risk score, 2.6% [IQR, 2.0% to 3.4%]), 912 (99.9%) completed follow-up and were included in the noninferiority analysis. At 1 year, there were 21 deaths (4.6%) in the TAVI group and 30 deaths (6.6%) in the surgery group, with an adjusted absolute risk difference of -2.0% (1-sided 97.5% CI, -∞ to 1.2%; P < .001 for noninferiority). Of 30 prespecified secondary outcomes reported herein, 24 showed no significant difference at 1 year. TAVI was associated with significantly shorter postprocedural hospitalization (median of 3 days [IQR, 2 to 5 days] vs 8 days [IQR, 6 to 13 days] in the surgery group). At 1 year, there were significantly fewer major bleeding events after TAVI compared with surgery (7.2% vs 20.2%, respectively; adjusted hazard ratio [HR], 0.33 [95% CI, 0.24 to 0.45]) but significantly more vascular complications (10.3% vs 2.4%; adjusted HR, 4.42 [95% CI, 2.54 to 7.71]), conduction disturbances requiring pacemaker implantation (14.2% vs 7.3%; adjusted HR, 2.05 [95% CI, 1.43 to 2.94]), and mild (38.3% vs 11.7%) or moderate (2.3% vs 0.6%) aortic regurgitation (adjusted odds ratio for mild, moderate, or severe [no instance of severe reported] aortic regurgitation combined vs none, 4.89 [95% CI, 3.08 to 7.75])., Conclusions and Relevance: Among patients aged 70 years or older with severe, symptomatic aortic stenosis and moderately increased operative risk, TAVI was noninferior to surgery with respect to all-cause mortality at 1 year., Trial Registration: isrctn.com Identifier: ISRCTN57819173.

Aims: Using bilateral internal thoracic arteries (BITAs) for coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) has been suggested to improve survival compared to CABG using single internal thoracic arteries (SITAs) for patients with advanced coronary artery disease. We used data from the Arterial Revascularization Trial (ART) to assess long-term cost-effectiveness of BITA grafting compared to SITA grafting from an English health system perspective., Methods and Results: Resource use, healthcare costs, and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were assessed across 10 years of follow-up from an intention-to-treat perspective. Missing data were addressed using multiple imputation. Incremental cost-effectiveness ratios were calculated with uncertainty characterized using non-parametric bootstrapping. Results were extrapolated beyond 10 years using Gompertz functions for survival and linear models for total cost and utility. Total mean costs at 10 years of follow-up were £17 594 in the BITA arm and £16 462 in the SITA arm [mean difference £1133 95% confidence interval (CI) £239 to £2026, P = 0.015]. Total mean QALYs at 10 years were 6.54 in the BITA arm and 6.57 in the SITA arm (adjusted mean difference -0.01 95% CI -0.2 to 0.1, P = 0.883). At 10 years, BITA grafting had a 33% probability of being cost-effective compared to SITA, assuming a cost-effectiveness threshold of £20 000. Lifetime extrapolation increased the probability of BITA being cost-effective to 51%., Conclusions: BITA grafting has significantly higher costs but similar quality-adjusted survival at 10 years compared to SITA grafting. Extrapolation suggests this could change over lifetime., (© The Author(s) 2021. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Society of Cardiology.)

In recent randomized trials, omitting consolidative radiotherapy (RT) in early-stage Hodgkin lymphoma (ESHL) increased relapses. However, decades of follow-up are required to observe whether lower initial disease control is compensated by reduced risk of late effects. Extrapolation beyond trial follow-up is therefore necessary to inform current treatment decisions. To this end, we developed a microsimulation model to estimate lifetime quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) after combined modality treatment (CMT) or chemotherapy-alone for stage I/IIa ESHL. For CMT, the model included risks of breast and lung cancer, coronary heart disease, and ischemic stroke. Comparative outcomes were assessed for a clinically relevant range of example patients differing by age, sex, smoking status, and representative organs at risk (OAR) radiation doses informed by the RAPID trial. Analysis was performed with and without a 3.5% discount rate on future health. Smoking status had a large effect on optimal treatment choice. CMT was superior for nearly all never smoker example patients regardless of age, sex, and OAR doses. At a maximum, CMT produced a 1.095 (95% CI: 1.054-1.137) gain in undiscounted QALYs for a 20-year-old male never smoker with unilateral neck disease. In contrast, current smokers could substantially gain from chemotherapy-alone treatment. Again at a maximum, a 20-year-old male current smoker with bilateral neck and whole mediastinum involvement gained 3.500 (95% CI: 3.400 to 3.600) undiscounted QALYs with chemotherapy-alone treatment. Overall, CMT was more favorable the younger the patient, when future health discounting was included, and in never smokers., (© 2022 by The American Society of Hematology. Licensed under Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International (CC BY-NC-ND 4.0), permitting only noncommercial, nonderivative use with attribution. All other rights reserved.)

The diagnosis of celiac disease (CD) may be delayed due to non-specific clinical symptoms. The aim of the study was to evaluate the clinical manifestation and diagnostic process of CD in Polish children and adults. Methods: The members of the Polish Coeliac Society (n = 2500) were asked to complete a questionnaire on socio-demographic factors, clinical and diagnostic aspects of CD. The analysis was based on 796 responses from patients with confirmed CD diagnosis, and included 224 (28.1%) children and 572 (71.9%) adults. Results: The mean duration of symptoms prior to CD diagnosis in children was significantly shorter than in adults (p < 0.001), and amounted to 3.1 and 9 years respectively. The most frequent symptoms before CD diagnosis were abdominal pain and bloating in children (70.4%), and chronic fatigue in adults (74.5%). Although almost all CD patients claimed to strictly avoid gluten after CD diagnosis, symptoms were still present in the majority of these respondents. No comorbid diseases were reported by 29.8% of children and by 11.7% of adults (p < 0.001). Conclusions: the results indicate that CD diagnosis is delayed in Poland, especially in adults, and clinicians should be aware of the diversity in CD presentation.

Aims: The Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL) trial assessed once-weekly exenatide (EQW) vs. placebo, added to usual care in 14,752 patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (Clinicaltrials.gov: NCT01144338). We assessed the lifetime cost-effectiveness of adding EQW vs. usual care alone from a healthcare perspective., Methods: Medical resource use and EQ-5D utilities were collected throughout the study. Within-trial results were extrapolated to a lifetime horizon using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model version 2 (UKPDS-OM2), predicting predict cardiovascular and microvascular events. Cost-effectiveness was evaluated separately for US and UK settings, with outcomes measured in quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs)., Results: EQW plus usual care gained 0.162 QALYs at an additional cost of $41,545/patient, compared with usual care in a US setting. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratio (ICER) was $259,223/QALY. In a UK setting, the QALY gain was 0.151 at an additional cost of £6357: an ICER of £42,589/QALY. Sensitivity analyses ranged between $34,369-$269,571 and £3430-£46,560 per QALY gained., Conclusions: In a lifetime extrapolation, adding EQW to usual care increased QALYs and costs compared with usual care alone. The base-case ICERs exceeded the commonly-cited cost-effectiveness thresholds of $100,000/QALY and £20,000/QALY. However, ICERs were considerably lower in some subgroups, and in sensitivity analyses., Competing Interests: Declaration of Competing Interest The authors declare that they have no known competing financial interests or personal relationships that could have appeared to influence the work reported in this paper., (Copyright © 2021 The Authors. Published by Elsevier B.V. All rights reserved.)

Objectives: To estimate 13 equations that predict clinically plausible risk factor time paths to inform the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study (UKPDS) Outcomes Model version 2 (UKPDS-OM2)., Methods: Data from 5102 UKPDS participants from the 20-year trial, and the 4031 survivors with 10 years further post-trial follow-up, were used to derive equations for the time paths of 13 clinical risk factors: HbA 1c , systolic blood pressure, LDL-cholesterol, HDL-cholesterol, BMI, micro- or macro-albuminuria, creatinine, heart rate, white blood cell count, haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filter rate, atrial fibrillation and peripheral vascular disease (PVD). The incidence of events and death predicted by the UKPDS-OM2 when informed by the new risk factor equations was compared with the observed cumulative rates up to 25 years., Results: The new equations were based on 24 years of follow-up and up to 65,252 person-years of data. Women were associated with higher values of all continuous risk factors except for haemoglobin. Older age and higher BMI at diagnosis were associated with higher rates of PVD (HR 1.06 and 1.02), atrial fibrillation (HR 1.10 and 1.08) and micro- or macro-albuminuria (HR 1.01 and 1.18). Smoking was associated with higher rates of developing PVD (HR 2.38) and micro- and macro-albuminuria (HR 1.39). The UKPDS-OM2, informed by the new risk factor equations, predicted event rates for complications and death consistent with those observed., Conclusions: The new equations allow risk factor time paths beyond observed data, which should improve modelling of long-term health outcomes for people with type 2 diabetes when using the UKPDS-OM2 or other models., (© 2021 The Authors. Diabetic Medicine published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of Diabetes UK.)

Background: Coeliac disease (CD) is characterised by diverse clinical symptoms, which may cause diagnostic problems and reduce the patients' quality of life. A study conducted in the United Kingdom (UK) revealed that the mean time between the onset of coeliac symptoms and being diagnosed was above 13 years. This study aimed to analyse the diagnostic process of CD in Poland and evaluate the quality of life of patients before and after CD diagnosis. In addition, results were compared to the results of the original study conducted in the UK., Methods: The study included 2500 members of the Polish Coeliac Society. The patients were asked to complete a questionnaire containing questions on socio-demographic factors, clinical aspects and quality of life, using the EQ-5D questionnaire. Questionnaires received from 796 respondents were included in the final analysis., Results: The most common symptoms reported by respondents were bloating (75%), abdominal pain (72%), chronic fatigue (63%) and anaemia (58%). Anaemia was the most persistent symptom, with mean duration prior to CD diagnosis of 9.2 years, whereas diarrhoea was observed for the shortest period (4.7 years). The mean duration of any symptom before CD diagnosis was 7.3 years, compared to 13.2 years in the UK. CD diagnosis and the introduction of a gluten-free diet substantially improved the quality of life in each of the five EQ-5D-5L health dimensions: pain and discomfort, anxiety and depression, usual activities, self-care and mobility (p < 0.001), the EQ-Index by 0.149 (SD 0.23) and the EQ-VAS by 30.4 (SD 28.3) points., Conclusions: Duration of symptoms prior to the diagnosis of CD in Poland, although shorter than in the UK, was long with an average of 7.3 years from first CD symptoms. Faster CD diagnosis after the onset of symptoms in Polish respondents may be related to a higher percentage of children in the Polish sample. Introduction of a gluten-free diet improves coeliac patients' quality of life. These results suggest that doctors should be made more aware of CD and its symptoms across all age groups.

Purpose: The Quality of Life Alzheimer's Disease Scale (QoL-AD) is commonly used to assess disease specific health-related quality of life (HRQoL) as rated by patients and their carers. For cost-effectiveness analyses, utilities based on the EQ-5D are often required. We report a new mapping algorithm to obtain EQ-5D indices when only QoL-AD data are available., Methods: Different statistical models to estimate utility directly, or responses to individual EQ-5D questions (response mapping) from QoL-AD, were trialled for patient-rated and proxy-rated questionnaires. Model performance was assessed by root mean square error and mean absolute error., Results: The response model using multinomial regression including age and sex, performed best in both the estimation dataset and an independent dataset., Conclusions: The recommended mapping algorithm allows researchers for the first time to estimate EQ-5D values from QoL-AD data, enabling cost-utility analyses using datasets where the QoL-AD but no utility measures were collected.

Background: Obtaining reliable estimates of the health-related quality of life (HR-QoL) of people with predementia Alzheimer's disease [AD] (preclinical or prodromal AD), mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and dementia is essential for economic evaluations of related health interventions., Aims: To provide an overview of which quality of life instruments are being used to assess HR-QoL in people with predementia AD, MCI or dementia; and, to summarise their reported HR-QoL levels at each stage of the disease and by type of respondent., Methods: We systematically searched for and reviewed eligible studies published between January 1990 and the end of April 2017 which reported HR-QoL for people with predementia AD, MCI or dementia. We only included instruments which are preference-based, allowing index scores/utility values to be attached to each health state they describe based on preferences obtained from population surveys. Summary results were presented by respondent type (self or proxy), type of instrument, geographical location and, where possible, stage of disease. Health state utility values derived using the EuroQoL 5-Dimensions (EQ-5D) were meta-analysed by pooling reported results across all studies by disease severity (MCI, mild, mild to moderate, moderate, severe dementia, not specified) and by respondent (person with dementia, carer, general public, not specified), using a fixed-effects approach., Results: We identified 61 studies which reported HR-QoL for people with MCI or dementia using preference-based instruments, of which 48 used the EQ-5D. Thirty-six studies reported HR-QoL for mild and/or moderate disease severities, and 12 studies reported utility values for MCI. We found systematic differences between self-rated and proxy-rated HR-QoL, with proxy-rated utility valued being significantly lower in more severe disease states., Conclusions: A substantial literature now exists quantifying the impact of dementia on HR-QoL using preference-based measures, giving researchers and modellers a firmer basis on which to select appropriate utility values when estimating the effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of interventions in this area. Further research is required on HR-QoL of people with preclinical and prodromal AD and MCI, possible differences by type of dementia, the effects of comorbidities, study setting and the informal caregiver's own HR-QoL, including any effect of that on their proxy-ratings.

Objectives: We applied principles for conducting economic evaluations of factorial trials to a trial-based economic evaluation of a cluster-randomized 2 × 2 × 2 factorial trial. We assessed the cost-effectiveness of atorvastatin, omega-3 fish oil, and an action-planning leaflet, alone and in combination, from a UK National Health Service perspective., Methods: The Atorvastatin in Factorial With Omega EE90 Risk Reduction in Diabetes (AFORRD) Trial randomized 800 patients with type 2 diabetes to atorvastatin, omega-3, or their respective placebos and randomized general practices to receive a leaflet-based action-planning intervention designed to improve compliance or standard care. The trial was conducted at 59 UK general practices. Sixteen-week outcomes for each trial participant were extrapolated for 70 years using the United Kingdom Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model v2.01. We analyzed the trial as a 2 × 2 factorial trial (ignoring interactions between action-planning leaflet and medication), as a 2 × 2 × 2 factorial trial (considering all interactions), and ignoring all interactions., Results: We observed several qualitative interactions for costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) that changed treatment rankings. However, different approaches to analyzing the factorial design did not change the conclusions. There was a ≥99% chance that atorvastatin is cost-effective and omega-3 is not, at a £20 000/QALY threshold., Conclusions: Atorvastatin monotherapy was the most cost-effective combination of the 3 trial interventions at a £20 000/QALY threshold. Omega-3 fish oil was not cost-effective, while there was insufficient evidence to draw firm conclusions about action planning. Recently-developed methods for analyzing factorial trials and combining parameter and sampling uncertainty were extended to estimate cost-effectiveness acceptability curves within a 2x2x2 factorial design with model-based extrapolation., (Copyright © 2020 ISPOR–The Professional Society for Health Economics and Outcomes Research. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Objective: To estimate using the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model Version 2 (UKPDS-OM2) the impact of delaying type 2 diabetes onset on costs and quality-adjusted life expectancy using trial participants who developed diabetes in the NAVIGATOR (Nateglinide And Valsartan in Impaired Glucose Tolerance Outcomes Research) study., Research Design and Methods: We simulated the impact of delaying diabetes onset by 1-9 years, utilizing data from the 3,058 of 9,306 NAVIGATOR trial participants who developed type 2 diabetes. Costs and utility weights associated with diabetes and diabetes-related complications were obtained for the U.S. and U.K. settings, with costs expressed in 2017 values. We estimated discounted lifetime costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) with 95% CIs., Results: Gains in QALYs increased from 0.02 (U.S. setting, 95% CI 0.01, 0.03) to 0.15 (U.S. setting, 95% CI 0.10, 0.21) as the imposed time to diabetes onset was increased from 1 to 9 years, respectively. Savings in complication costs increased from $1,388 (95% CI $1,092, $1,669) for a 1-year delay to $8,437 (95% CI $6,611, $10,197) for a delay of 9 years. Interventions costing up to $567-$2,680 and £201-£947 per year would be cost-effective at $100,000 per QALY and £20,000 per QALY thresholds in the U.S. and U.K., respectively, as the modeled delay in diabetes onset was increased from 1 to 9 years., Conclusions: Simulating a hypothetical diabetes-delaying intervention provides guidance concerning the maximum cost and minimum delay in diabetes onset needed to be cost-effective. These results can inform the ongoing debate about diabetes prevention strategies and the design of future intervention studies., (© 2020 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Selective internal radiotherapy (SIRT) is a liver-directed treatment involving the injection of yttrium-90 microspheres into the blood supply of liver tumours. There are very few studies assessing health-related quality of life (HRQOL) in patients treated with SIRT. Patients with liver metastases from colorectal cancer (CRC) were randomised in the FOXFIRE (FFr; ISRCTN83867919), SIRFLOX (SF; NCT00724503) and FOXFIRE-Global (FFrG; NCT01721954) trials of first-line oxaliplatin-fluorouracil (FOLFOX) chemotherapy combined with SIRT versus FOLFOX alone. HRQOL was assessed using the three-level EQ-5D, European Organisation for Research and Treatment of Cancer Quality of Life (EORTC QLQ-C30) and EORTC Colorectal Liver Metastases cancer module (EORTC QLQ-LMC21) at baseline, ≤3 months, 6 months, 12 months and annually thereafter from randomisation, and at disease progression. Analyses were conducted on an intention-to-treat basis. In total, 554 patients were randomised to SIRT + FOLFOX and 549 patients to FOLFOX alone. HRQOL was statistically significant lower in SIRT + FOLFOX patients ≤3 months after SIRT administration in all three instruments, particularly global health, physical and role functioning and symptoms of fatigue, nausea/vomiting and appetite loss. By accepted thresholds, these differences were deemed not clinically important. Differences between SIRT + FOLFOX and FOLFOX alone over the 2-year follow up and at disease progression were also not clinically important. Although there is some decrease in HRQOL for up to 3 months following SIRT, the addition of SIRT to FOLFOX chemotherapy does not change HRQOL to a clinically important degree in metastatic CRC patients., (© 2019 UICC.)

Aim: To perform post-hoc analyses of the EMPA-REG OUTCOME trial examining the degree to which empagliflozin-induced changes in conventional cardiovascular (CV) risk factors might explain the observed CV benefits., Materials and Methods: We estimated 3-year EMPA-REG OUTCOME CV event rates using a type 2 diabetes-specific clinical outcomes simulation model applied to annual patient-level data. Variables included were atrial fibrillation, smoking, albuminuria, HDL cholesterol, LDL cholesterol, systolic blood pressure, glycated haemoglobin, heart rate, white cell count, haemoglobin, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and histories of ischaemic heart disease, heart failure, amputation, blindness, renal failure, stroke, myocardial infarction or diabetic ulcer. Multiple simulations were performed for each participant to minimize uncertainty and optimize confidence interval precision around CV risk point estimates. Observed and simulated cardiovascular relative risk reductions were compared., Results: Model-predicted relative risk reductions were smaller than those observed in the trial, with empagliflozin-associated changes in conventional CV risk factor values appearing to explain only 12% of the observed relative risk reduction for all-cause death (4% of 32%), 7% for CV death (3% of 39%) and 15% for heart failure (4% of 29%)., Conclusions: Empagliflozin-associated changes in conventional CV risk factors in EMPA-REG OUTCOME appear to explain only a small proportion of the CV and all-cause death reductions observed. Alternative risk-reduction mechanisms need to be explored to determine if the observed CV risk changes can be explained by other factors, or possibly by a direct drug-specific effect., (© 2020 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Introduction: The clinical efficacy and cost-effectiveness of mechanical thrombectomy (MT) for the treatment of large vessel occlusion stroke is well established, but uncertainty remains around the true cost of delivering this treatment within the NHS. The aim of this study was to establish the cost of providing MT within the hyperacute phase of care and to explore differences in resources used and costs across different neuroscience centres in the UK., Method: This was a multicentre retrospective study using micro-costing methods to enable a precise assessment of the costs of MT from an NHS perspective. Data on resources used and their costs were collected from five UK neuroscience centres between 2015 and 2018., Results: Data were collected on 310 patients with acute ischaemic stroke treated with MT. The mean total cost of providing MT and inpatient care within 24 hours was £10,846 (95% confidence interval (CI) 10,527-11,165) per patient. The main driver of cost was MT procedure costs, accounting for 73% (£7,943; 95% CI 7,649-8,237) of the total 24-hour cost. Costs were higher for patients treated under general anaesthesia (£11,048; standard deviation (SD) 2,654) than for local anaesthesia (£9,978; SD 2,654), mean difference £1,070 (95% CI 381-1,759; p=0.003); admission to an intensive care unit (ICU; £12,212; SD 3,028) against for admission elsewhere (£10,179; SD 2,415), mean difference £2,032 (95% CI 1,345-2,719; p<0001).The mean cost within 72 hours was £12,440 (95% CI 10,628-14,252). The total costs for the duration of inpatient care before discharge from a thrombectomy centre was £14,362 (95% CI 13,603-15,122)., Conclusions: Major factors contributing to costs of MT for stroke include consumables and staff for intervention, use of general anaesthesia and ICU admissions. These findings can inform the reimbursement, provision and strategic planning of stroke services and aid future economic evaluations., (© Royal College of Physicians 2020. All rights reserved.)

Background: Young women's attendance at cervical screening in the UK is continuing to fall, and the incidence of invasive cervical cancer is rising., Objectives: We assessed the preferences of non-attending young women for alternative ways of delivering cervical screening., Design: Postal discrete choice experiment (DCE) conducted during the STRATEGIC study of interventions for increasing cervical screening uptake. Attributes included action required to arrange a test, location of the test, availability of a nurse navigator and cost to the National Health Service., Setting and Participants: Non-attending young women in two UK regions., Main Outcome Measures: Responses were analysed using a mixed multinomial logit model. A predictive analysis identified the most preferable strategy compared to current screening. Preferences from the DCE were compared with observed behaviours during the STRATEGIC trial., Results: The DCE response rate was 5.5% (222/4000), and 94% of respondents agreed screening is important. Preference heterogeneity existed around attributes with strong evidence for test location. Relative to current screening, unsolicited self-sampling kits for home use appeared most preferable. The STRATEGIC trial showed this same intervention to be most effective although many women who received it and were screened, attended for conventional cytology instead., Conclusions: The DCE and trial identified the unsolicited self-sampling kit as the most preferred/effective intervention. The DCE suggested that the decision of some women receiving the kit in the trial to attend for conventional cytology may be due to anxieties around home testing coupled with a knowledge that ignoring the kit could potentially have life-changing consequences., (© 2019 The Authors Health Expectations published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Objective: To compare medical resource use, costs, and health utilities for 14,752 patients with type 2 diabetes who were randomized to once-weekly exenatide (EQW) or placebo in addition to usual diabetes care in the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL)., Research Design and Methods: Medical resource use data and responses to the EuroQol 5-Dimension (EQ-5D) instrument were collected at baseline and throughout the trial. Medical resources and medications were assigned values by using U.S. Medicare payments and wholesale acquisition costs, respectively. Secondary analyses used English costs., Results: Patients were followed for an average of 3.3 years, during which time those randomized to EQW experienced 0.41 fewer inpatient days (7.05 vs. 7.46 days; relative rate ratio 0.91; P = 0.05). Rates of outpatient medical visits were similar, as were total inpatient and outpatient costs. Mean costs for nonstudy diabetes medications over the study period were ∼$1,600 lower with EQW than with placebo ( P = 0.01). Total within-study costs, excluding study medication, were lower in the EQW arm than in the placebo arm ($28,907 vs. $30,914; P ≤ 0.01). When including the estimated cost of EQW, total mean costs were significantly higher in the EQW group than in the placebo group ($42,697 vs. $30,914; P < 0.01). With English costs applied, mean total costs, including exenatide costs, were £1,670 higher in the EQW group than the placebo group (£10,874 vs. £9,204; P < 0.01). There were no significant differences in EQ-5D health utilities between arms over time., Conclusions: Medical costs were lower in the EQW arm than the placebo arm, but total costs were significantly higher once the cost of branded exenatide was incorporated., (© 2019 by the American Diabetes Association.)

Background: The De-ESCALaTE HPV trial confirmed the dominance of cisplatin over cetuximab for tumour control in patients with human papillomavirus (HPV)-positive oropharyngeal squamous cell carcinoma (OPSCC). Here, we present the analysis of health-related quality of life (HRQoL), resource use, and health care costs in the trial, as well as complete 2-year survival and recurrence., Materials and Methods: Resource use and HRQoL data were collected at intervals from the baseline to 24 months post treatment (PT). Health care costs were estimated using UK-based unit costs. Missing data were imputed. Differences in mean EQ-5D-5L utility index and adjusted cumulative quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) were compared using the Wilcoxon signed-rank test and linear regression, respectively. Mean resource usage and costs were compared through two-sample t-tests., Results: 334 patients were randomised to cisplatin (n = 166) or cetuximab (n = 168). Two-year overall survival (97·5% vs 90·0%, HR: 3.268 [95% CI 1·451 to 7·359], p = 0·0251) and recurrence rates (6·4% vs 16·0%, HR: 2·67 [1·38 to 5·15]; p = 0·0024) favoured cisplatin. No significant differences in EQ-5D-5L utility scores were detected at any time point. At 24 months PT, mean difference was 0·107 QALYs in favour of cisplatin (95% CI: 0·186 to 0·029, p = 0·007) driven by the mortality difference. Health care costs were similar across all categories except the procurement cost and delivery of the systemic agent, with cetuximab significantly more expensive than cisplatin (£7779 [P < 0.001]). Consequently, total costs at 24 months PT averaged £13517 (SE: £345) per patient for cisplatin and £21064 (SE: £400) for cetuximab (mean difference £7547 [95% CI: £6512 to £8582])., Conclusions: Cisplatin chemoradiotherapy provided more QALYs and was less costly than cetuximab bioradiotherapy, remaining standard of care for nonsurgical treatment of HPV-positive OPSCC., (Copyright © 2019 The Authors. Published by Elsevier Ltd.. All rights reserved.)

Quantifying the value of investment in medical research can inform decision-making on the prioritisation of research programmes. Existing methodologies to estimate the rate of return of medical research are inappropriate for early-phase translational research due to censoring of health benefits and time lags. A strategy to improve the process of translational research for patient benefit has been initiated as part of the UK National Institute for Health Research (NIHR) investment in Biomedical Research Centres (BRCs) in England. By providing a platform for partnership between universities, NHS trusts and industry, successful BRCs should reduce time lags within translational research whilst also providing an impetus for local economic growth through industry collaboration. We present a novel contribution in the assessment of early-phase biomedical research by estimating the impact of the Oxford Biomedical Research Centre (OxBRC) on income and job creation following the initial NIHR investment. We adopt a macroeconomic assessment approach using Input-Output Analysis to estimate the value of medical research in terms of income and job creation during the early pathway towards translational biomedical research. Inter-industry linkages are assessed by building a model economy for the South East England region to estimate the return on investment of the OxBRC. The results from the input-output model estimate that the return on investment in biomedical research within the OxBRC is 46%. Each £1 invested in the OxBRC generates an additional £0.46 through income and job creation alone. Multiplicative employment effects following a marginal investment in the OxBRC of £98m during the period 2007-2017 result in an estimated additional 196 full time equivalent positions being created within the local economy on top of direct employment within OxBRC. Results from input-output analyses can be used to inform the prioritisation of biomedical research programmes when compared against national minimum thresholds of investment., Competing Interests: The authors have declared that no competing interests exist.

Background: Multiple arterial grafts may result in longer survival than single arterial grafts after coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) surgery. We evaluated the use of bilateral internal-thoracic-artery grafts for CABG., Methods: We randomly assigned patients scheduled for CABG to undergo bilateral or single internal-thoracic-artery grafting. Additional arterial or vein grafts were used as indicated. The primary outcome was death from any cause at 10 years. The composite of death from any cause, myocardial infarction, or stroke was a secondary outcome., Results: A total of 1548 patients were randomly assigned to undergo bilateral internal-thoracic-artery grafting (the bilateral-graft group) and 1554 to undergo single internal-thoracic-artery grafting (the single-graft group). In the bilateral-graft group, 13.9% of the patients received only a single internal-thoracic-artery graft, and in the single-graft group, 21.8% of the patients also received a radial-artery graft. Vital status was not known for 2.3% of the patients at 10 years. In the intention-to-treat analysis at 10 years, there were 315 deaths (20.3% of the patients) in the bilateral-graft group and 329 deaths (21.2%) in the single-graft group (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.82 to 1.12; P=0.62). Regarding the composite outcome of death, myocardial infarction, or stroke, there were 385 patients (24.9%) with an event in the bilateral-graft group and 425 patients (27.3%) with an event in the single-graft group (hazard ratio, 0.90; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.03)., Conclusions: Among patients who were scheduled for CABG and had been randomly assigned to undergo bilateral or single internal-thoracic-artery grafting, there was no significant between-group difference in the rate of death from any cause at 10 years in the intention-to-treat analysis. Further studies are needed to determine whether multiple arterial grafts provide better outcomes than a single internal-thoracic-artery graft. (Funded by the British Heath Foundation and others; Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN46552265 .).

Aims: There are few data available on the incremental benefits of risk factor modification in type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). We simulated the potential benefits of achieving lower systolic blood pressure (SBP) and LDL-cholesterol targets., Methods: We used the UKPDS Outcomes Model v2.0 to estimate 10-year event rates for complications using baseline data from 5717 participants with T2DM in the Trial Evaluating Cardiovascular Outcomes with Sitagliptin Study. All risk factor values were held constant over 10 years. In separate analyses, different levels of SBP between 160 and 120 mm Hg and LDL-cholesterol between 5.0 and 1.0 mmol/l were imposed on the cohort. Cumulative relative risk reductions (CRRR) at each 10 mm Hg and 1.0 mmol/l decrements respectively were compared using Kruskal-Wallis tests., Results: CRRRs for each 10 mm Hg SBP decrement from 160 mm Hg were 2.2%, 4.5%, 7.0% and 10.0% for myocardial infarction (MI); 12.5%, 24.8%, 35.6% and 44.9% for stroke; 5.4%, 10.9%, 16.2% and 20.9% for blindness; 7.4%, 14.7%, 21.6% and 27.4% for amputation, respectively. CRRRs for each 1.0 mmol/l LDL-cholesterol decrement from 5.0 mmol/l were 16.9%, 30.8%, 41.2% & 51.0% for MI; 9.2%, 19.7%, 29.6% & 38.8% for stroke (p < 0.001 in all cases)., Conclusions: These simulated outcomes illustrate the potential benefits of targeting progressively lower SBP and LDL-cholesterol values., (Crown Copyright © 2018. Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Following publication of the original article [1], the authors reported that the following notation wasn't used consistently.

Background: Missing data can introduce bias in the results of randomised controlled trials (RCTs), but are typically unavoidable in pragmatic clinical research, especially when patient reported outcome measures (PROMs) are used. Traditionally applied to the composite PROMs score of multi-item instruments, some recent research suggests that multiple imputation (MI) at the item level may be preferable under certain scenarios. This paper presents practical guidance on the choice of MI models for handling missing PROMs data based on the characteristics of the trial dataset. The comparative performance of complete cases analysis, which is commonly used in the analysis of RCTs, is also considered., Methods: Realistic missing at random data were simulated using follow-up data from an RCT considering three different PROMs (Oxford Knee Score (OKS), EuroQoL 5 Dimensions 3 Levels (EQ-5D-3L), 12-item Short Form Survey (SF-12)). Data were multiply imputed at the item (using ordinal logit and predicted mean matching models), sub-scale and score level; unadjusted mean outcomes, as well as treatment effects from linear regression models were obtained for 1000 simulations. Performance was assessed by root mean square errors (RMSE) and mean absolute errors (MAE)., Results: Convergence problems were observed for MI at the item level. Performance generally improved with increasing sample sizes and lower percentages of missing data. Imputation at the score and subscale level outperformed imputation at the item level in small sample sizes (n ≤ 200). Imputation at the item level is more accurate for high proportions of item-nonresponse. All methods provided similar results for large sample sizes (≥500) in this particular case study., Conclusions: Many factors, including the prevalence of missing data in the study, sample size, the number of items within the PROM and numbers of levels within the individual items, and planned analyses need consideration when choosing an imputation model for missing PROMs data.

Background: Partial factorial trials compare two or more pairs of treatments on overlapping patient groups, randomising some (but not all) patients to more than one comparison. The aims of this research were to compare different methods for conducting and analysing economic evaluations on partial factorial trials and assess the implications of considering factors simultaneously rather than drawing independent conclusions about each comparison., Methods: We estimated total costs and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs) within 10 years of surgery for 2252 patients in the Knee Arthroplasty Trial who were randomised to one or more comparisons of different surgical types. We compared three analytical methods: an "at-the-margins" analysis including all patients randomised to each comparison (assuming no interaction); an "inside-the-table" analysis that included interactions but focused on those patients randomised to two comparisons; and a Bayesian vetted bootstrap, which used results from patients randomised to one comparison as priors when estimating outcomes for patients randomised to two comparisons. Outcomes comprised incremental costs, QALYs and net benefits., Results: Qualitative interactions were observed for costs, QALYs and net benefits. Bayesian bootstrapping generally produced smaller standard errors than inside-the-table analysis and gave conclusions that were consistent with at-the-margins analysis, while allowing for these interactions. By contrast, inside-the-table gave different conclusions about which intervention had the highest net benefits compared with other analyses., Conclusions: All analyses of partial factorial trials should explore interactions and assess whether results are sensitive to assumptions about interactions, either as a primary analysis or as a sensitivity analysis. For partial factorial trials closely mirroring routine clinical practice, at-the-margins analysis may provide a reasonable estimate of average costs and benefits for the whole trial population, even in the presence of interactions. However, such conclusions will be misleading if there are large interactions or if the proportion of patients allocated to different treatments differs markedly from what occurs in clinical practice. The Bayesian bootstrap provides an alternative to at-the-margins analysis for analysing clinical or economic endpoints from partial factorial trials, which allows for interactions while making use of the whole sample. The same techniques could be applied to analyses of clinical endpoints., Trial Registration: ISRCTN, ISRCTN45837371 . Registered on 25 April 2003.

Aims: TECOS, a cardiovascular safety trial (ClinicalTrials.gov identifier: NCT00790205) involving 14 671 patients with type 2 diabetes and cardiovascular disease, demonstrated that sitagliptin was non-inferior to placebo for the primary composite cardiovascular outcome when added to best usual care. This study tested hypotheses that medical resource use and costs differed between these 2 treatment strategies., Materials and Methods: Information concerning medical resource use was collected on case report forms throughout the trial and was valued using US costs for: Medicare payments for hospitalizations, medical procedures and outpatient visits, and wholesale acquisition costs (WAC) for diabetes-related medications. Hierarchical generalized linear models were used to compare resource use and US costs, accounting for variable intercountry practice patterns. Sensitivity analyses included resource valuation using English costs for a UK perspective., Results: There were no significant differences in hospitalizations, inpatient days, medical procedures, or outpatient visits during follow-up (mean and median 3.0 years in both groups). Hospitalization rates appeared to diverge after 2 years, with lower rates among sitagliptin-treated vs placebo patients after 2.5 years (relative rate, 0.90 [95% CI, 0.83-0.97]; P = .01). Mean medical costs, exclusive of study medication, were 11 937 USD in the sitagliptin arm and 12 409 USD in the placebo arm (P = .06). Mean sitagliptin costs based on undiscounted WAC were 9978 USD per patient. Differential UK total costs including study drug costs were smaller (911 GBP), primarily because of lower mean costs for sitagliptin (1072 GBP)., Conclusions: Lower hospitalization rates across time with sitagliptin slightly offset sitagliptin treatment costs over 3 years in type 2 diabetes patients at high risk for cardiovascular events., (© 2018 John Wiley & Sons Ltd.)

Purpose: Missing data are a potential source of bias in the results of RCTs, but are often unavoidable in clinical research, particularly in patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs). Maximum likelihood (ML), multiple imputation (MI), and inverse probability weighting (IPW) can be used to handle incomplete longitudinal data. This paper compares their performance when analyzing PROMs, using a simulation study based on an RCT data set., Methods: Realistic missing-at-random data were simulated based on patterns observed during the follow-up of the knee arthroscopy trial (ISRCTN45837371). Simulation scenarios covered different sample sizes, with missing PROM data in 10%-60% of participants. Monotone and nonmonotone missing data patterns were considered. Missing data were addressed by using ML, MI, and IPW and analyzed via multilevel mixed-effects linear regression models. Root mean square errors in the treatment effects were used as performance parameters across 1,000 simulations., Results: Nonconvergence issues were observed for IPW at small sample sizes. The performance of all three approaches worsened with decreasing sample size and increasing proportions of missing data. MI and ML performed similarly when the MI model was restricted to baseline variables, but MI performed better when using postrandomization data in the imputation model and also in nonmonotone versus monotone missing data scenarios. IPW performed worse than ML and MI in all simulation scenarios., Conclusion: When additional postrandomization information is available, MI can be beneficial over ML for handling incomplete longitudinal PROM data. IPW is not recommended for handling missing PROM data in the simulated scenarios., Competing Interests: Disclosure All authors are employed by the University of Oxford. The funding agreement ensured the authors’ independence in designing the study, interpreting the data, and writing and publishing the report. The authors report no other conflicts of interest in this work.

Introduction: Dementia is one of the greatest health challenges the world will face in the coming decades, as it is one of the principal causes of disability and dependency among older people. Economic modelling is used widely across many health conditions to inform decisions on health and social care policy and practice. The aim of this literature review is to systematically identify, review and critically evaluate existing health economics models in dementia. We included the full spectrum of dementia, including Alzheimer's disease (AD), from preclinical stages through to severe dementia and end of life. This review forms part of the Real world Outcomes across the Alzheimer's Disease spectrum for better care: multimodal data Access Platform (ROADMAP) project., Methods and Analysis: Electronic searches were conducted in Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online, Excerpta Medica dataBASE, Economic Literature Database, NHS Economic Evaluation Database, Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Cost-Effectiveness Analysis Registry, Research Papers in Economics, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effectiveness, Science Citation Index, Turning Research Into Practice and Open Grey for studies published between January 2000 and the end of June 2017. Two reviewers will independently assess each study against predefined eligibility criteria. A third reviewer will resolve any disagreement. Data will be extracted using a predefined data extraction form following best practice. Study quality will be assessed using the Phillips checklist for decision analytic modelling. A narrative synthesis will be used., Ethics and Dissemination: The results will be made available in a scientific peer-reviewed journal paper, will be presented at relevant conferences and will also be made available through the ROADMAP project., Prospero Registration Number: CRD42017073874., Competing Interests: Competing interests: AT-H is an employee of Eli Lilly and Company Limited and owns stock in Eli Lilly and Company Limited. AYCS is an employee of F. Hoffmann-La Roche Ltd. RH reports grants from ROADMAP (IMI2; public-private collaboration; 2016–2019) to conduct this study, grants from BIOMARKAPD (EU JPND project; 2012–2016), grants from Actifcare (EU JPND project; 2014–2017), grants from European Brain Council (VoT project; public–private collaboration; 2017), grants from Dutch Flutemetamol Study (public–private collaboration; 2012–2017), personal fees from Piramal (advisory; 2016), personal fees from Roche (advisory; 2017), outside the submitted work. PL is employed by, owns stock in and has stock options in Novartis Pharma AG. Novartis Pharma AG, GE Healthcare, Biogen, Eli Lilly and Company Limited and Roche are industry partners in the ROADMAP Project., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Objectives: To assess how costs and quality of life (measured by EuroQoL-5 Dimensions (EQ-5D)) before and after total hip replacement (THR) and total knee replacement (TKR) vary with age, gender and preoperative Oxford hip score (OHS) and Oxford knee score (OKS)., Design: Regression analyses using prospectively collected data from clinical trials, cohort studies and administrative data bases., Setting: UK secondary care., Participants: Men and women undergoing primary THR or TKR. The Hospital Episode Statistics data linked to patient-reported outcome measures included 602 176 patients undergoing hip or knee replacement who were followed up for up to 6 years. The Knee Arthroplasty Trial included 2217 patients undergoing TKR who were followed up for 12 years. The Clinical Outcomes in Arthroplasty Study cohort included 806 patients undergoing THR and 484 patients undergoing TKR who were observed for 1 year., Outcome Measures: EQ-5D-3L quality of life before and after surgery, costs of primary arthroplasty, costs of revision arthroplasty and the costs of hospital readmissions and ambulatory costs in the year before and up to 12 years after joint replacement., Results: Average postoperative utility for patients at the 5th percentile of the OHS/OKS distribution was 0.61/0.5 for THR/TKR and 0.89/0.85 for patients at the 95th percentile. The difference between postoperative and preoperative EQ-5D utility was highest for patients with preoperative OHS/OKS lower than 10. However, postoperative EQ-5D utility was higher than preoperative utility for all patients with OHS≤46 and those with OKS≤44. In contrast, costs were generally higher for patients with low preoperative OHS/OKS than those with high OHS/OKS. For example, costs of hospital readmissions within 12 months after primary THR/TKR were £740/£888 for patients at the 5th percentile compared with £314/£404 at the 95th percentile of the OHS/OKS distribution., Conclusions: Our findings suggest that costs and quality of life associated with total joint replacement vary systematically with preoperative symptoms measured by OHS/OKS., Competing Interests: Competing interests: HAD reports personal fees from Halyard Health, outside the submitted work. NKA reports grants from Bioiberica, personal fees from Bioventus, personal fees from ESCEO, personal fees from Flexion, personal fees from Freshfields Bruckhaus Deringer, personal fees from Merck, personal fees from Regeneron, outside the submitted work., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Introduction: Dementia is the fastest growing major cause of disability globally and may have a profound impact on the health-related quality of life (HRQoL) of both the patient with dementia and those who care for them. This review aims to systematically identify and synthesise the measurements of HRQoL for people with, and their caregivers across the full spectrum of, dementia from its preceding stage of predementia to end of life., Methods and Analysis: A systematic literature review was conducted in Medical Literature Analysis and Retrieval System Online , ExcerptaMedicadataBASE, Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews , Cochrane Central Register of Controlled Trials, Database of Abstracts of Reviews of Effect, National Health Service Economic Evaluation Database and PsycINFO between January 1990 and the end of April 2017. Two reviewers will independently assess each study for inclusion and disagreements will be resolved by a third reviewer. Data will be extracted using a predefined data extraction form following best practice. Study quality will be assessed with the Effective Public Health Practice Project quality assessment tool. HRQoL measurements will be presented separately for people with dementia and caregivers by instrument used and, when possible, HRQoL will be reported by disease type and stage of the disease. Descriptive statistics of the results will be provided. A narrative synthesis of studies will also be provided discussing differences in HRQoL measurements by instrument used to estimate it, type of dementia and disease severity., Ethics and Dissemination: This systematic literature review is exempt from ethics approval because the work is carried out on published documents. The findings of the review will be disseminated in a related peer-reviewed journal and presented at conferences. They will also contribute to the work developed in the Real World Outcomes across the Alzheimer's disease spectrum for better care: multimodal data access platform (ROADMAP)., Trial Registration Number: CRD42017071416., Competing Interests: Competing interests: PL is employed by, owns stock in and has stock options in Novartis Pharma AG. RH has received consulting fees from Roche, Nutricia and Piramal; research grants from private/public collaborations: IMI2-ROADMAP; Alzheimer Netherlands Flutemetamol; CTMM LEARN Grant 02 N-101 and public grants from: JPND Actifcare and JPND BIOMARKAPD. ERD is employed by GE Healthcare. MHP is an employee of Biogen and owns stock in Biogen. She owns stock in a variety of companies that at times include other pharmaceutical and healthcare-related companies. ATH is an employee of Eli Lilly and Company Limited and owns stock in Eli Lilly and Company Limited. Novartis Pharma AG, GE Healthcare, Biogen and Eli Lilly and Company Limited are industry partners in the ROADMAP Project., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Introduction: Dementia is the fastest growing major cause of disability globally with a mounting social and financial impact for patients and their families but also to health and social care systems. This review aims to systematically synthesise evidence on the utilisation of resources and costs incurred by patients and their caregivers and by health and social care services across the full spectrum of dementia, from its preceding preclinical stage to end of life. The main drivers of resources used and costs will also be identified., Methods and Analysis: A systematic literature review was conducted in MEDLINE, EMBASE, CDSR, CENTRAL, DARE, EconLit, CEA Registry, TRIP, NHS EED, SCI, RePEc and OpenGrey between January 2000 and beginning of May 2017. Two reviewers will independently assess each study for inclusion and disagreements will be resolved by a third reviewer. Data will be extracted using a predefined data extraction form following best practice. Study quality will be assessed with the Effective Public Health Practice Project quality assessment tool. The reporting of costing methodology will be assessed using the British Medical Journal checklist. A narrative synthesis of all studies will be presented for resources used and costs incurred, by level of disease severity when available. If feasible, the data will be synthesised using appropriate statistical techniques., Ethics and Dissemination: Included articles will be reviewed for an ethics statement. The findings of the review will be disseminated in a related peer-reviewed journal and presented at conferences. They will also contribute to the work developed in the Real World Outcomes across the Alzheimer's disease spectrum for better care: multi-modal data access platform (ROADMAP)., Trial Registration Number: CRD42017071413., Competing Interests: Competing interests: This SLR is being conducted as part of the ROADMAP project. ROADMAP is a consortium of academic, public sector and industry partners working collaboratively within the European Union Innovative Medicines Initiative framework. FL, HW, IG, EN, SM, KW, NR, RW, JW and AMG declare that they have no competing interests. PL is employed by, owns stock in and has stock options in Novartis Pharma AG. ERD is employed by GE Healthcare. MP is an employee of Biogen and owns stock in Biogen. She owns stock in a variety of companies that at times include other pharmaceutical and health care-related companies. ATH is an employee of Eli Lilly and Company Limited and owns stock in Eli Lilly and Company Limited. Novartis Pharma AG, GE Healthcare, Biogen and Eli Lilly and Company Limited are industry partners in the ROADMAP Project., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2018. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Care quality is important to patients and providers, but is hard to measure. This study aimed to examine changes in the frequency and severity of one quality measure - adverse events associated with medical care - in Great Britain over a 12-year period when available resources initially expanded and were subsequently constrained. Data on perceived adverse events, collected from two representative population surveys in 2001 and 2013, were analysed and compared. The samples consisted of 8202 adults aged 15 and over in 2001 and 19,746 adults aged 15 and over in 2013. The main outcome measures were self-reported illness, injury or impairment caused in the opinion of the respondent by medical treatment or care. Respondents were also asked about the perceived severity of harm in terms of health and work, and any actions taken in response. The proportion of all respondents reporting that over the last three years they had suffered some illness, injury or impairment that in their opinion was caused by their medical treatment or care was 2.5% (497/19746) in 2013, compared with 4.8% (391/8202) in 2001, a reduction of 33% after adjusting for age, gender, income and social class differences between the two surveys. Perceived impact on health and work of these events was similar in both surveys, as was the proportion of injured respondents who pursued a legal claim for financial compensation, at 11% (53/497) in 2013 and 10.5% (41/391) in 2001. We also report multivariate analyses of perceived harm rates and severity, and propensity to seek, and accept, compensation. Our results suggest that the NHS became significantly safer over this period when measured by patient perceived harm from medical care. Our survey method could provide a valuable contribution to the monitoring of trends in health-care related adverse events and the impact of patient safety initiatives., (Copyright © 2017. Published by Elsevier Ltd.)

Objective: Coronary artery bypass grafting (CABG) using bilateral internal mammary arteries (BIMA) may improve survival over CABG using single internal mammary arteries (SIMA), but may be surgically more complex (and therefore costly) and associated with impaired sternal wound healing. We report, for the first time, a detailed comparison of healthcare resource use and costs over 12 months, as part of the Arterial Revascularisation (ART) Trial., Methods: 3102 patients in 28 hospitals in seven countries were randomised to CABG surgery using BIMA (n=1548) or SIMA (n=1554). Detailed resource use data were collected covering surgery, the initial hospital episode, and for 12 months post randomisation. Using UK unit costs, total costs were calculated and compared between trial arms and for subgroups., Results: Patients randomised to BIMA spent 20 min longer in theatre (95% CI 15 to 25, p<0.001) and also required more treatment for sternal wound problems. Mean (SD) total costs per patient at 12 months were £13 839 (£10 534) for BIMA and £12 717 (£9719) for SIMA (mean cost difference £1122, 95% CI £407 to £1838, p=0.002). No tests for interaction between subgroups and treatment allocation were significant., Conclusions: At 12 months from randomisation, mean costs were approximately 9% higher in BIMA than SIMA patients, primarily due to longer time in theatre and in-hospital stay, and slightly higher costs related to sternal wound problems during follow-up. Follow-up to the primary trial endpoint of 10 years will reveal whether longer-term differences emerge in graft patency or in overall survival., Trial Registration Number: Controlled-trials.com (ISRCTN46552265)., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Introduction: Medication therapy for type 2 diabetes has become increasingly complex, and there are few reliable data on the current state of clinical practice. We report treatment pathways and associated costs of medication therapy for people with type 2 diabetes in the UK, their variability and changes over time., Methods: Prescription and biomarker data for 7159 people with type 2 diabetes were extracted from the GoDARTS cohort study, covering the period 1989-2013. Average follow-up was 10 years. Individuals were prescribed on average 2.4 (SD: 1.2) drugs with average annual costs of £241. We calculated summary statistics for first- and second-line therapies. Linear regression models were used to estimate associations between therapy characteristics and baseline patient characteristics., Results: Average time from diagnosis to first prescription was 3 years (SD: 4.0 years). Almost all first-line therapy (98%) was monotherapy, with average annual cost of £83 (SD: £204) for 3.8 (SD: 3.5) years. Second-line therapy was initiated in 73% of all individuals, at an average annual cost of £219 (SD: £305). Therapies involving insulin were markedly more expensive than other common therapies. Baseline HbA1c was unrelated to future therapy costs, but higher average HbA1c levels over time were associated with higher costs., Conclusions: Medication therapy has undergone substantial changes during the period covered in this study. For example, therapy is initiated earlier and is less expensive than in the past. The data provided in this study will prove useful for future modelling studies, e.g. of stratified treatment approaches.

Introduction: Social isolation and loneliness affect approximately one-third to one-half of the elderly population and have a negative impact on their physical and mental health. Group-based interventions where facilitators are well trained and where the elderly are actively engaged in their development seem to be more effective, but conclusions have been limited by weak study designs. We aim to conduct a systematic review to assess the effectiveness of health promotion interventions on social isolation or loneliness in older people., Methods and Analysis: A systematic review was conducted in Medline, Embase, PsycINFO, Cumulative Index to Nursing and Allied Health Literature, Applied Social Sciences Index and Abstracts, LILACS, OpenGrey and the Cochrane Library on peer-reviewed studies and doctoral theses published between 1995 and 2016 evaluating the impact of health promotion interventions on social isolation and/or loneliness for individuals aged 60 and over. Two reviewers will independently assess each study for inclusion and disagreements will be resolved by a third reviewer. Data will be extracted using a predefined pro forma following best practice. Study quality will be assessed with the Effective Public Health Practice Project quality assessment tool. A narrative synthesis of all studies will be presented by type of outcome (social isolation or loneliness) and type of intervention. If feasible, the effectiveness data will be synthesised using appropriate statistical techniques., Ethics and Dissemination: This systematic review is exempt from ethics approval because the work is carried out on published documents. The findings of the review will be disseminated in a related peer-reviewed journal and presented at conferences. They will also contribute to a DPhil thesis., Trial Registration Number: CRD42016039650., Competing Interests: Competing interests: None declared., (© Article author(s) (or their employer(s) unless otherwise stated in the text of the article) 2017. All rights reserved. No commercial use is permitted unless otherwise expressly granted.)

Fracture liaison services are recommended as a model of best practice for organizing patient care and secondary fracture prevention for hip fracture patients, although variation exists in how such services are structured. There is considerable uncertainty as to which model is most cost-effective and should therefore be mandated. This study evaluated the cost- effectiveness of orthogeriatric (OG)- and nurse-led fracture liaison service (FLS) models of post-hip fracture care compared with usual care. Analyses were conducted from a health care and personal social services payer perspective, using a Markov model to estimate the lifetime impact of the models of care. The base-case population consisted of men and women aged 83 years with a hip fracture. The risk and costs of hip and non-hip fractures were derived from large primary and hospital care data sets in the UK. Utilities were informed by a meta-regression of 32 studies. In the base-case analysis, the orthogeriatric-led service was the most effective and cost-effective model of care at a threshold of £30,000 per quality-adjusted life years gained (QALY). For women aged 83 years, the OG-led service was the most cost-effective at £22,709/QALY. If only health care costs are considered, OG-led service was cost-effective at £12,860/QALY and £14,525/QALY for women and men aged 83 years, respectively. Irrespective of how patients were stratified in terms of their age, sex, and Charlson comorbidity score at index hip fracture, our results suggest that introducing an orthogeriatrician-led or a nurse-led FLS is cost-effective when compared with usual care. Although considerable uncertainty remains concerning which of the models of care should be preferred, introducing an orthogeriatrician-led service seems to be the most cost-effective service to pursue. © 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research., (© 2016 American Society for Bone and Mineral Research.)

Background: The use of bilateral internal thoracic (mammary) arteries for coronary-artery bypass grafting (CABG) may improve long-term outcomes as compared with the use of a single internal-thoracic-artery plus vein grafts., Methods: We randomly assigned patients scheduled for CABG to undergo single or bilateral internal-thoracic-artery grafting in 28 cardiac surgical centers in seven countries. The primary outcome was death from any cause at 10 years. The composite of death from any cause, myocardial infarction, or stroke was a secondary outcome. Interim analyses were prespecified at 5 years of follow-up., Results: A total of 3102 patients were enrolled; 1554 were randomly assigned to undergo single internal-thoracic-artery grafting (the single-graft group) and 1548 to undergo bilateral internal-thoracic-artery grafting (the bilateral-graft group). At 5 years of follow-up, the rate of death was 8.7% in the bilateral-graft group and 8.4% in the single-graft group (hazard ratio, 1.04; 95% confidence interval [CI], 0.81 to 1.32; P=0.77), and the rate of the composite of death from any cause, myocardial infarction, or stroke was 12.2% and 12.7%, respectively (hazard ratio, 0.96; 95% CI, 0.79 to 1.17; P=0.69). The rate of sternal wound complication was 3.5% in the bilateral-graft group versus 1.9% in the single-graft group (P=0.005), and the rate of sternal reconstruction was 1.9% versus 0.6% (P=0.002)., Conclusions: Among patients undergoing CABG, there was no significant difference between those receiving single internal-thoracic-artery grafts and those receiving bilateral internal-thoracic-artery grafts with regard to mortality or the rates of cardiovascular events at 5 years of follow-up. There were more sternal wound complications with bilateral internal-thoracic-artery grafting than with single internal-thoracic-artery grafting. Ten-year follow-up is ongoing. (Funded by the British Heart Foundation and others; ART Current Controlled Trials number, ISRCTN46552265 .).

Purpose: Patient-reported outcome measures (PROMs) are designed to assess patients' perceived health states or health-related quality of life. However, PROMs are susceptible to missing data, which can affect the validity of conclusions from randomised controlled trials (RCTs). This review aims to assess current practice in the handling, analysis and reporting of missing PROMs outcome data in RCTs compared to contemporary methodology and guidance., Methods: This structured review of the literature includes RCTs with a minimum of 50 participants per arm. Studies using the EQ-5D-3L, EORTC QLQ-C30, SF-12 and SF-36 were included if published in 2013; those using the less commonly implemented HUI, OHS, OKS and PDQ were included if published between 2009 and 2013., Results: The review included 237 records (4-76 per relevant PROM). Complete case analysis and single imputation were commonly used in 33 and 15 % of publications, respectively. Multiple imputation was reported for 9 % of the PROMs reviewed. The majority of publications (93 %) failed to describe the assumed missing data mechanism, while low numbers of papers reported methods to minimise missing data (23 %), performed sensitivity analyses (22 %) or discussed the potential influence of missing data on results (16 %)., Conclusions: Considerable discrepancy exists between approved methodology and current practice in handling, analysis and reporting of missing PROMs outcome data in RCTs. Greater awareness is needed for the potential biases introduced by inappropriate handling of missing data, as well as the importance of sensitivity analysis and clear reporting to enable appropriate assessments of treatment effects and conclusions from RCTs.

Introduction: Severely bleeding trauma patients are a small proportion of the major trauma population but account for 40% of all trauma deaths. Healthcare resource use and costs are likely to be substantial but have not been fully quantified. Knowledge of costs is essential for developing targeted cost reduction strategies, informing health policy, and ensuring the cost-effectiveness of interventions., Methods: In collaboration with the Trauma Audit Research Network (TARN) detailed patient-level data on in-hospital resource use, extended care at hospital discharge, and readmissions up to 12 months post-injury were collected on 441 consecutive adult major trauma patients with severe bleeding presenting at 22 hospitals (21 in England and one in Wales). Resource use data were costed using national unit costs and mean costs estimated for the cohort and for clinically relevant subgroups. Using nationally available data on trauma presentations in England, patient-level cost estimates were up-scaled to a national level., Results: The mean (95% confidence interval) total cost of initial hospital inpatient care was £19,770 (£18,177 to £21,364) per patient, of which 62% was attributable to ventilation, intensive care, and ward stays, 16% to surgery, and 12% to blood component transfusion. Nursing home and rehabilitation unit care and re-admissions to hospital increased the cost to £20,591 (£18,924 to £22,257). Costs were significantly higher for more severely injured trauma patients (Injury Severity Score ≥15) and those with blunt injuries. Cost estimates for England were £148,300,000, with over a third of this cost attributable to patients aged 65 years and over., Conclusions: Severely bleeding major trauma patients are a high cost subgroup of all major trauma patients, and the cost burden is projected to rise further as a consequence of an aging population and as evidence continues to emerge on the benefits of early and simultaneous administration of blood products in pre-specified ratios. The findings from this study provide a previously unreported baseline from which the potential impact of changes to service provision and/or treatment practice can begin to be evaluated. Further studies are still required to determine the full costs of post-discharge care requirements, which are also likely to be substantial.

Objectives: The Arterial Revascularization Trial (ART) is a randomized comparison of bilateral internal mammary artery (BIMA) versus single internal mammary artery (SIMA) grafting in coronary artery bypass graft (CABG) surgery and is one of the largest randomized trials of surgery ever conducted. ART is also one of the largest studies of contemporary CABG with a high proportion of off-pump surgeries (41%). The objective of this post hoc analysis was to evaluate the surgical process and 1-year outcomes for surgery performed on-pump compared with off-pump., Methods: ART randomized 3102 patients with multivessel coronary artery disease (CAD) to SIMA or BIMA grafts to determine if BIMA grafts have an additional survival advantage at 10 years. The 1-year interim analysis showed an overall very low mortality and major morbidity rate irrespective of whether the procedure was with an SIMA or BIMA. The surgical process and 1-year outcomes were analysed according to whether surgery was performed on-pump or off-pump., Results: Baseline variables were not statistically significantly different between on- and off-pump surgery within each treatment group after taking account of the effects of clustering by individual surgeons. At both 30 days and 1 year, there was a low incidence of death (1.2%, 2.3%), stroke (1.1%, 1.7%), myocardial infarction (MI) (1.4%, 1.9%), repeat revascularization (0.5%, 1.5%) and wound reconstruction (1.2%). A similar average number of grafts were performed with on- and off-pump surgery (median = 3), but the duration of surgery was 20-30 min and ventilation time ∼ 2 h shorter with off-pump surgery. Blood loss and platelet transfusions were lower in the off-pump group, with no difference in the need for balloon pump or renal support. Sternal wound reconstruction was similar with off-pump surgery in the SIMA group (0.5 vs 0.6%) and lower with off-pump surgery in the BIMA group (1.4 vs 2.2%). Repeat revascularization was marginally higher in off-pump patients at 30 days (0.8 vs 0.3%) and at 1 year (1.7 vs 1.3%)., Conclusions: The outcomes of contemporary CABG are excellent with low mortality, stroke, myocardial infarction and need for wound reconstruction and repeat revascularization whether performed on-pump or off-pump., Clinical Trial Registration: Controlled-trials.com (ISRCTN46552265)., (© The Author 2014. Published by Oxford University Press on behalf of the European Association for Cardio-Thoracic Surgery. All rights reserved.)

Background: In the late 1990s, new developments in knee replacement were identified as a priority for research within the NHS. The newer forms of arthroplasty were more expensive and information was needed on their safety and cost-effectiveness., Objectives: The Knee Arthroplasty Trial examined the clinical effectiveness and cost-effectiveness of four aspects of knee replacement surgery: patellar resurfacing, mobile bearings, all-polyethylene tibial components and unicompartmental replacement., Design: This study comprised a partial factorial, pragmatic, multicentre randomised controlled trial with a trial-based cost-utility analysis which was conducted from the perspective of the NHS and the patients treated. Allocation was computer generated in a 1 : 1 ratio using a central system, stratified by eligible comparisons and surgeon, minimised by participant age, gender and site of disease. Surgeons were not blinded to allocated procedures. Participants were unblinded if they requested to know the prosthesis they received., Setting: The setting for the trial was UK secondary care., Participants: Patients were eligible for inclusion if a decision had been made for them to have primary knee replacement surgery. Patients were recruited to comparisons for which the surgeon was in equipoise about which type of operation was most suitable., Interventions: Patients were randomised to receive a knee replacement with the following: patellar resurfacing or no patellar resurfacing irrespective of the design of the prosthesis used; a mobile bearing between the tibial and femoral components or a bearing fixed to the tibial component; a tibial component made of either only high-density polyethylene ('all polyethylene') or a polyethylene bearing fixed to a metal backing plate with attached stem; or unicompartmental or total knee replacement., Main Outcome Measures: The primary outcome was the Oxford Knee Score (OKS). Other outcomes were Short Form 12; EuroQol 5D; intraoperative and postoperative complications; additional surgery; cost; and cost-effectiveness. Patients were followed up for a median of 10 years; the economic evaluation took a 10-year time horizon, discounting costs and quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) at 3.5% per annum., Results: A total of 116 surgeons in 34 centres participated and 2352 participants were randomised: 1715 in patellar resurfacing; 539 in mobile bearing; 409 in all-polyethylene tibial component; and 34 in the unicompartmental comparisons. Of those randomised, 345 were randomised to two comparisons. We can be more than 95% confident that patellar resurfacing is cost-effective, despite there being no significant difference in clinical outcomes, because of increased QALYs [0.187; 95% confidence interval (CI) -0.025 to 0.399] and reduced costs (-£104; 95% CI -£630 to £423). We found no definite advantage or disadvantage of mobile bearings in OKS, quality of life, reoperation and revision rates or cost-effectiveness. We found improved functional results for metal-backed tibias: complication, reoperation and revision rates were similar. The metal-backed tibia was cost-effective (particularly in the elderly), costing £35 per QALY gained., Conclusions: The results provide evidence to support the routine resurfacing of the patella and the use of metal-backed tibial components even in the elderly. Further follow-up is required to assess the stability of these findings over time and to inform the decision between mobile and fixed bearings., Trial Registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN45837371., Funding: This project was funded by the NIHR Health Technology Assessment programme and the orthopaedic industry. It will be published in full in Health Technology Assessment; Vol. 18, No. 19. See the NIHR Journals Library website for further project information.

Objective: To evaluate the 5-year impact of stroke and TIA on utility and quality-adjusted survival., Methods: TIA and stroke patients from a UK population-based study (Oxford Vascular Study) were recruited from 2002 to 2007, and followed up until 2012. Quality of life was assessed over 5 years using the EQ-5D (EuroQol-5 Dimensions), with responses converted into utilities ranging from -0.59 (worse than death) to 1 (perfect health), using UK population valuations. Utilities for stroke and TIA patients were compared with those in matched controls obtained from the 2006 Health Survey for England. Five-year quality-adjusted life years were estimated by combining utility and survival information., Results: Four hundred forty TIA and 748 stroke patients were ascertained and included. Utility remained constant at approximately 0.78 over the 5 years after TIA. Utility improved from 0.64 one month after stroke to 0.70 at 6 months (p = 0.006), remaining at approximately 0.70 thereafter. Matched controls had considerably higher utility levels than stroke/TIA patients (0.85, p < 0.001). Event severity and recurrent stroke were significant predictors of decreased long-term utility. Five-year quality-adjusted life expectancy was 3.32 (95% confidence interval: 3.22-3.48) quality-adjusted life years after TIA and 2.21 (2.15-2.37) after stroke, varying considerably by severity (minor: 2.94; moderate: 1.65; and severe: 0.70)., Conclusion: Quality-adjusted survival is low over the 5 years after stroke and TIA, with severity and recurrent stroke being major predictors. There remains considerable scope for improvements in acute treatment and secondary prevention to improve the quality of life after TIA and stroke.

Background and Purpose: Long-term outcome information after transient ischemic attack (TIA) and stroke is required to help plan and allocate care services. We evaluated the impact of TIA and stroke on disability and institutionalization over 5 years using data from a population-based study., Methods: Patients from a UK population-based cohort study (Oxford Vascular Study) were recruited from 2002 to 2007 and followed up to 2012. Patients were followed up at 1, 6, 12, 24, and 60 months postevent and assessed using the modified Rankin scale. A multivariate regression analysis was performed to assess the predictors of disability postevent., Results: A total of 748 index stroke and 440 TIA cases were studied. For patients with TIA, disability levels increased from 14% (63 of 440) premorbidly to 23% (60 of 256) at 5 years (P=0.002), with occurrence of subsequent stroke being a major predictor of disability. For stroke survivors, the proportion disabled (modified Rankin scale >2) increased from 21% (154 of 748) premorbidly to 43% (273 of 634) at 1 month (P<0.001), with 39% (132 of 339) of survivors disabled 5 years after stroke. Five years postevent, 70% (483 of 690) of patients with stroke and 48% (179 of 375) of patients with TIA were either dead or disabled. The 5-year risk of care home institutionalization was 11% after TIA and 19% after stroke. The average 5-year cost per institutionalized patient was $99,831 (SD, 67 020) for TIA and $125,359 (SD, 91 121) for stroke., Conclusions: Our results show that 70% of patients with stroke are either dead or disabled 5 years after the event. Thus, there remains considerable scope for improvements in acute treatment and secondary prevention to reduce postevent disability and institutionalization.

Background: New treatments for atrial fibrillation patients have been shown to be effective at reducing subsequent vascular event recurrence. However, there are few data on stroke costs in atrial fibrillation patients to allow the cost-effectiveness of these treatments to be assessed., Aims: Using data from a population-based study, we assessed the acute and long-term costs of stroke in atrial fibrillation patients., Methods: Health-care costs one-year before and five-years after stroke were obtained from a large population-based study (Oxford Vascular study). Costs were assessed for the three-months poststroke (acute period) and annually thereafter (postacute period). Annual postacute costs were compared with annual baseline costs. Based on patients' living arrangements, costs of institutionalization after the event were included., Results: A total of 191 strokes occurred in 153 patients with known prior atrial fibrillation. Mean health-care costs after stroke were £10 413 (standard deviation 15 105) in the acute phase, with annual postacute health-care costs nonsignificantly smaller than those incurred before the event (£2400 vs. £3356, respectively; P = 0·198). However, for the 136 strokes surviving past the 90-day acute period, costs were nonsignificantly higher than those incurred in the year before the event (£3370 vs. £2566, respectively; P = 0·333). After stroke, 25 (13%) patients were newly admitted into long-term warden, nursing, or residential care, resulting in annual costs of £6880 (standard deviation 15 600) averaged across the 136 stroke cases surviving past the acute period., Conclusions: Although annual post acute phase hospital and primary health-care costs in stroke patients with prior atrial fibrillation were not significantly different to those incurred before the stroke, long-term nursing/residential care costs were substantial., (© 2012 The Authors. International Journal of Stroke © 2012 World Stroke Organization.)

Objective: To evaluate the accuracy of the UK Prospective Diabetes Study Outcomes Model (UKPDS-OM) in predicting clinical outcomes during the UKPDS posttrial monitoring (PTM) period., Research Design and Methods: At trial end in 1997, the 4,031 surviving UKPDS patients, of the 5,102 originally enrolled in the study, returned to their usual care providers, with no attempts made to maintain them in their randomized therapy groups. PTM risk factor data were collected for 5 years and clinical outcome data for 10 years. The UKPDS-OM was used firstly to forecast likely progression of HbA1c, systolic blood pressure, total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio, and smoking status and secondly to estimate the likely first occurrence of seven major diabetes-related complications or death from any cause. Model predictions were compared against observed PTM data for risk factor time paths and survival probabilities for major diabetes complications., Results: UKPDS-OM-forecasted risk factor time paths were similar to those observed for HbA1c (up to 3 years) and total-to-HDL cholesterol ratio but underestimated for systolic blood pressure and smoking status. Predicted 10-year event probabilities were similar to those observed for blindness, ischemic heart disease, myocardial infarction, and renal failure but were higher for heart failure and death from any cause and lower for stroke and amputation., Conclusions: The UKPDS-OM has good predictive accuracy for two of four risk factor time paths and for 10-year clinical outcome probabilities with the exception of stroke, amputation, heart failure, and death from any cause. An updated version of the model incorporating PTM data is being developed.

Objectives: High hospitalization rates, prolonged length of stay, and increased risks of subsequent events mean a steep increase in health care usage after stroke. No study, however, has examined to what extent increased costs after transient ischemic attack (TIA) or stroke are due to hospitalizations for the initial event, recurrent events, and/or nonvascular hospitalizations, and how costs compare with the year prior to the event., Methods: We studied patients in a population-based cohort study (Oxford Vascular Study) in the United Kingdom from 2003 to 2007. Hospitalization and cost details were obtained from patients' individualized Hospital Episode Statistics records., Results: A total of 295 incident TIA and 439 incident stroke patients were included. For patients with stroke, average costs increased from £1437 in the year pre-event to £6629 in the year post-event (P<0.0001). Sixty-four percent (£4224) of poststroke costs were due to hospitalizations linked to the index stroke, more than 30% of which were given nonvascular primary diagnoses on Hospital Episode Statistics, and £653 (10%) were due to hospitalizations linked to subsequent vascular events. For patients with TIA, costs increased from £876 1 year before the event to £2410 in the year post-event (P<0.0001). Patients with TIA incurred nonsignificantly higher costs due to hospitalizations linked to subsequent vascular events (£774) than for hospitalizations linked to the index TIA (£720)., Conclusions: Hospital costs increased after TIA or stroke, primarily because of increased initial cerebrovascular hospitalizations. The finding that costs due to nonvascular diagnoses also increased after TIA or stroke appears, in part, to be explained by the miscoding of TIA/stroke-related hospitalizations in electronic information systems., (Copyright © 2013 International Society for Pharmacoeconomics and Outcomes Research (ISPOR). Published by Elsevier Inc. All rights reserved.)

Background and Purpose: Few studies have evaluated long-term costs after stroke onset, with almost no cost data for transient ischemic attack (TIA). We studied hospital costs during the 5 years after TIA or stroke in a population-based study., Methods: Patients from a United Kingdom population-based cohort study (Oxford Vascular Study) were recruited from 2002 to 2007. Analysis was based on follow-up until 2010. Hospital resource usage was obtained from patient hospital records and valued using 2008/2009 unit costs. Because not all patients had full 5-year follow-up, we used nonparametric censoring techniques., Results: Among 485 TIA and 729 stroke patients ascertained and included, mean censor-adjusted 5-year hospital costs after index stroke were $25,741 (95% confidence interval, 23,659-27,914), with costs varying considerably by severity: $21,134 after minor stroke; $33,119 after moderate stroke; and $28,552 after severe stroke. For the 239 surviving stroke patients who had reached final follow-up, mean costs were $24,383 (95% confidence interval, 20,156-28,595), with more than half of costs ($12,972) being incurred in the first year after the event. After index TIA, the mean censor-adjusted 5-year costs were $18,091 (95% confidence interval, 15,947-20,258). A multivariate analysis showed that event severity, recurrent stroke, and coronary events after the index event were independent predictors of 5-year costs. Differences by stroke subtype were mostly explained by stroke severity and subsequent events., Conclusions: Long-term hospital costs after TIA and stroke are considerable, but they are mainly incurred during the first year after the index event. Event severity and experiencing subsequent stroke and coronary events after the index event accounted for much of the increase in costs.