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Since the epidemics of primary pneumonic plague in Manchuria in the early 20th century, few opportunities for the study of substantial epidemics have occurred (1). Often small, self-limiting (2), and [...]

There is an emerging consensus among economists that the trend rate of economic growth in the U.S. is much lower now than in the past. In a lower-trend-growth regime, short-term [...]

Headline employment numbers have been consistent with previous recoveries from recession. Behind the headlines, however, there are troubling data that suggest that the recovery of labor markets is weaker than [...]

We ask how macroeconomic and financial variables respond to empirical measures of shocks to technology, labor supply, and monetary policy. These three shocks account for the preponderance of output, productivity, and price fluctuations. Only technology shocks have a permanent impact on economic activity. Labor inputs have little initial response to technology shocks. Monetary policy has a small response to technology shocks but 'leans against the wind' in response to the more cyclical labor supply shock. This shock has the biggest impact on interest rates. Stock prices respond to all three shocks. Other empirical implications of our approach are discussed. JEL codes: C32, E32, E52 Keywords: business cycles, identification, impulse responses, vector autoregression., THIS PAPER INVESTIGATES how macroeconomic and financial variables respond to structural economic shocks. We use a relatively new and unexplored identification strategy that simultaneously identifies multiple impulses. Our strategy is [...]

To link to full-text access for this article, visit this link: http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.jmoneco.2006.02.001 Byline: Dean Croushore (a), Charles L. Evans (b) Abstract: Monetary policy research using time-series methods has been criticized for using more information than the Federal Reserve had available. To quantify the role of this criticism, we estimate VARs with real-time data while accounting for the latent nature of many economic variables, such as output. Our estimated monetary policy shocks are closely correlated with typically estimated measures. The impulse response functions are broadly similar across estimation methods. Our evidence suggests that the use of revised data in VAR analyses of monetary policy shocks may not be a serious limitation for recursively identified systems, but presents more challenges for simultaneous systems. Author Affiliation: (a) Robins School of Business, University of Richmond, Economics, 1 Gateway Road, Richmond, VA 23173, USA (b) Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, Chicago, IL, USA Article History: Received 13 December 2002; Revised 13 April 2005; Accepted 10 May 2005 Article Note: (footnote) [star] We thank Ryan Hayward, James Sherma, and Judy Yoo for valuable research assistance. We thank Chris Sims for helpful comments on this research, as well as other seminar participants at Princeton University, Michigan State University, the University of Richmond, the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve Banks of Chicago and Philadelphia, the Southern Economic Association meetings, the American Economic Association meetings, the 2000 Econometric Society World Congress, and the Federal Reserve System Committee on Macroeconomics. This paper represents the views of the authors and should not be interpreted as reflecting the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

The effects of Federal Reserve Board's monetary policy shocks, using vector autoregression analysis, are examined.

Introduction and summary On March 5, 2001, the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago first released publicly the Chicago Fed National Activity Index (CFNAI), a single, summary measure of real economic [...]

Byline: Charles L. Evans (1), F. Teixeira Santos (2) Keywords: Monetary policy shocks; Productivity; International real business cycles; Exogeneity tests Abstract: An implication of two-country international real business cycle models is that total factor productivity should be an exogenous stochastic process. Economic theories which feature labor hoarding, variable capacity utilization, and increasing returns predict that measured productivity shifts are not exogenous instead, expansionary aggregate demand shocks should lead to an increase in measured productivity. For each of the G-7 countries, this paper measures quarterly aggregate total factor productivity for the domestic country and its rest-of-world (G-6) counterpart. In each case the domestic productivity measures are not strictly exogenous: expansionary U.S. monetary policy shocks, as well as other G-6 monetary policy shocks, lead to productivity expansions. The evidence indicates that international business cycle models are misspecified unless they feature endogenous productivity mechanisms. Author Affiliation: (1) Research Department, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago, P.O. Box 834, IL 60690-0834, Chicago, USA (2) Department of Economics, University of Porto, Rua Dr. Roberto Frias, 4200, Porto, Portugal Article History: Registration Date: 01/01/2001 Article note: Received: June 2001, Accepted: December 2001, JEL Classification: Correspondence to: Charles L. Evans For their helpful comments, we thank Mario Crucini, Patricia Reynolds, and Steve Strongin. The views expressed in this paper do not necessarily reflect the views of the Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago or the Federal Reserve System.

Vapor adsorption into porous ultrathin films on a gold surface is investigated with in situ surface plasmon resonance (SPR) and polarization-modulation infrared reflection-absorption spectroscopy (PM-IRRAS). The thin films are prepared by the electrostatic serf-assembly of oppositely charged poly(L-lysine) (PL) and silica nanoparticles on a chemically modified gold surface. Characterization with ex situ SPR and PM-IRRAS demonstrates the buildup of multiple PL/[SiO.sub.2] bilayers as well as an excellent correlation between the quantitative results from these two techniques. In situ vapor adsorption experiments with these thin films show evidence of porosity, reproducibility, and rapid reversibility. Exposure to acetone vapor (P/[P.sub.0] = 0.032) causes the film to adsorb 9% acetone by volume, which corresponds to coverage of approximately one-haft of the silica nanoparticle surface area. In situ PM-IRRAS provides much information about the molecular interactions occurring in the film upon adsorption or desorption of vapors. Dosing with a mixture of vapors leads to a competition for adsorption into the film, and PM-IRRAS results show that acetone slightly out-competes nitromethane. These experiments with nanoparticle thin films demonstrate the advantages of using in situ PM-IRRAS for studying reversible adsorption in the presence of vapor mixtures.

Introduction and summary The Federal Reserve Act (as amended by the Full Employment and Balanced Growth Act of 1978) specifies that the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System [...]

In aggregate unadjusted data, measured Solow residuals exhibit large seasonal variations. Total Factor Productivity grows rapidly in the fourth quarter at an annual rate of 16 percent and regresses sharply [...]

The molecular basis for the profound inflammatory response and the accumulation of hyaluronan in orbital connective tissues seen in thyroid-associated ophthalmopathy is unknown. Moreover, the link between the orbital manifestations of Graves' disease and those in the pretibial skin, localized dermopathy, has yet to be established. We have reported recently that leukoregulin, an activated T lymphocyte-derived cytokine, dramatically induces hyaluronan synthesis and prostaglandin-end-operoxide H synthase 2 in human orbital fibroblasts in culture. In the current studies, utilizing giant two-dimensional gel electrophoresis, we find that orbital fibroblasts express constitutively a protein profile that distinguishes them from skin fibroblasts derived from the abdominal wall and from the pretibium. We further demonstrate that leukoregulin, when present in culture medium for 16 hr, up-regulates a set of orbital fibroblast proteins not present in untreated cultures or in fibroblasts from the abdominal wall. However, some of the same protein inductions are present in the pretibial fibroblasts. These leukoregulin-induced changes in protein expression are completely blocked by dexamethasone (10 nM). Our findings are the first to identify proteins that appear to be expressed and differentially regulated in an anatomical site-restricted manner in orbital and pretibial fibroblasts and seem to establish a molecular link between fibroblasts from the orbit and those in pretibial skin.

We provide new evidence that models of the monetary transmission mechanism should be consistent with at least the following facts. After a contractionary monetary policy shock, the aggregate price level responds very little, aggregate output falls, interest rates initially rise, real wages decline by a modest amount, and profits fall. We compare the ability of sticky price and limited participation models with frictionless labor markets to account for these facts. The key failing of the sticky price model lies in its counterfactual implications for profits. The limited participation model can account for all the above facts, but only if one is willing to assume a high labor supply elasticity (2 percent) and a high markup (40 percent). The shortcomings of both models reflect the absence of labor market frictions, such as wage contracts or factor hoarding, which dampen movements in the marginal cost of production after a monetary policy shock. Keywords: Monetary transmission; Mechanism; Prices; Credit

In February 1994, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) began a slow process of increasing the federal funds rate by 300 basis points. The intention was to 'head off an [...]

This paper investigates the effects of shocks to U. S. monetary policy on exchange rates. We consider three measures of these shocks: orthogonalized shocks to the federal funds rate, orthogonalized shocks to the ratio of nonborrowed to total reserves and changes in the Romer and Romer index of monetary policy. In sharp contrast to the literature, we find substantial evidence of a link between monetary policy and exchange rates. Specifically, according to our results a contractionary shock to U. S. monetary policy leads to (i) persistent, significant appreciations in U. S. nominal and real exchange rates and (ii) significant, persistent deviations from uncovered interest rate parity in favor of U. S. interest rates., I. INTRODUCTION This paper investigates the effects of shocks to U. S. monetary policy on exchange rates. In sharp contrast to the literature we find substantial evidence of a link [...]

Leukoregulin induces levels of plasminogen activator inhibitor type 1 associated with the extracellular matrix in a dose-and time-dependent manner. The lowering of the protein levels of PAI-1 in skin fibroblasts from the abdominal wall indicate that the cells of fibroblasts coming from the stomach are unique in their response to leukoregulin. The decrease in PAI-1 observed after 24 h of leukoregulin treatment is due to the activation of prostaglandin E2 by lymphokine.

Group cohesion is an important construct in understanding the behavior of groups. However, there has been ongoing controversy on how to define and measure this construct. Central to this debate is the structure of cohesion. The authors critically review the literature on unidimensional and multidimensional models of cohesion and describe cohesion as a multidimensional construct with primary and secondary dimensions. Primary dimensions are applicable to describing the cohesiveness of all or most types of groups, whereas secondary dimensions are applicable to describing the cohesiveness of specific types of groups. Viewing group cohesion as consisting of primary and secondary dimensions is discussed.

A seasonal business cycle model that incorporates the effect of changes in consumer preferences, technology and government contracts is presented. The study evaluated the magnitude of seasonal variation in technology and the effective size of the technological variation that would reflect the changes in seasonal changes using the business cycle model. The results show that the state of technology has a fourth-quarter growth rate of 24% and declines 28% annually in the first quarter. The seasonal cycle is effectively reflected in the business model of the variation in the state of technology falls within this range.

Evaluating the factor analysis technique as a way of examining group-cohesion, a dynamic inclination of a group to adhere to their task and be united in seeking their objectives, reveals marked improvements indicating factor analysis as a useful tool for accounting the construct of cohesion and its measures. The implications for further factor analytic work and the strengths and weaknesses of factor analysis in researching cohesion are discussed.

An investigation of human orbital fibroblast cultures reveals that synthesis of hyaluronan, a glycosaminoglycan, in these cultures depends on the 50 kDa glycoprotein lymphokine leukoregulin, the extent of synthesis increase by leukoregulin depending on concentration and time. The irregular glycosaminoglycan deposits in orbital connective tissues during Grave's ophthalmopathy can be studied using leukoregulin as a marker signal.

It is widely accepted that short-term changes in exchange rates cannot be accurately predicted. However, vector autoregression analysis hints that interest rate shocks caused a significant effect on the dollar's depreciation against the yen since 1991. Such evidence indicates that monetary policy and exchange rate movements, in particular, greatly affect the dollar. An empirical relationship between short-term interest rates and the dollar is then worthy of further investigation.

A framework for assessing economic indicators regarding its applications, importance and limitations was developed using a bivariate regression model. In using economic data in forecasting future economic trends, analysis showed that the forecast horizon of an indicator is essential in choosing and evaluating the indicator. This is true for composite indicators, which can effectively forecast up to a six month horizon only. The term and public/private spreadsheets were shown to contain substantial common and independent information. Lastly, the model showed that the general purpose target variable aimed for by previous economic forecasting literature may not exist in terms of real economic activity.

We studied the effects of different cattle stocking rates on activity patterns of female mule deer (Odocoileus hemionus) on a summer range in the Sierra Nevada of California. Using an automated telemetry system, we determined that deer averaged 32 [+ or -] 2.2 (SE)% of the time feeding, 8 [+ or -] 1.1% traveling, and 60 [+ or -] 2.4% resting per 24-hour period. Deer spent more time feeding and less time resting with increase cattle stocking rates. During 1984, a year of average precipitation, deer spent more time feeding per day in late summer than in early summer in range units grazed by cattle but did not do so in ungrazed range units. In 1985, a drier year, deer spent less time feeding per day in late summer in grazed units. Time spent feeding by deer was negatively correlated with standing crop of herbaceous forage in meadow-riparian habitats. Deer increased their time spent feeding by shortening the length of resting bouts and including more feeding bouts each day, not by increasing the length of each foraging bout. Companion studies indicated that with cattle grazing, deer home-range sizes were larger (Loft 1988), and hiding cover for fawns was reduced (Loft et al. 1987). The results are consistent with the hypothesis that cattle competed with deer, particularly at high stocking rates and during a year of below-average precipitation. We suggest that female mule deer were acting as time-minimizers to meet the high energetic demands of lactation while minimizing their exposure to predators. Management options to reduce adverse effects include reducing or eliminating cattle grazing during early summer on all or part of the grazing allotment.