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Structural damage can affect the long-term operation of equipment. Real-time damage warning for structures can effectively avoid accidents caused by structural damage. In this paper, a real-time warning method of structural plastic damage based on the cointegration theory is proposed. This method calculates the cointegration relationship between the strain signals at different measuring points, and the stability of the strain signal relationships is also evaluated. The problem of inaccurate detection caused by the error of strain measurement and environmental influence can be eliminated by the comprehensive judgment of strain between asymmetrical measuring points. A real-time damage sensing system is developed in this paper. In order to improve the real-time and practicability of the system, this paper proposes and determines the residual warning coefficient by analyzing the proportion of the strain residuals exceeding the residual threshold. The research on this sensing system has certain value for the engineering application of damage monitoring methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The financial system plays an essential role in facilitating the intermediation process for economic growth. Policymakers stress on achieving a well-developed and regulated financial system to achieve economic development and resiliency. Using data from the State of Qatar, this paper aims to examine the impact of financial development indicator on economic growth; the impact of financial development indicator on hydrocarbon and nonhydrocarbon sector; the impact of Islamic banking on hydrocarbon and nonhydrocarbon economic growth. Design/methodology/approach: The research uses quarterly data from 2007 to 2019 and adopts autoregressive distributed lag cointegration techniques to test the long- and short-run dynamic relationship between various measures of financial development and economic growth. Findings: The results present evidence of long-term cointegration between overall financial development indicator and economic growth. Furthermore, the authors document the existence of long-term relationship between financial development and nonhydrocarbon sector. However, there is a lack of evidence on the long-run relationship between financial development and the hydrocarbon sector. Notwithstanding, Islamic banking contributes to overall economic development, as well as to the nonhydrocarbon sector. Practical implications: This paper offers policymakers with insights to evaluate measures to diversify the economy. It also assists decision-makers in promoting Islamic finance, particularly to the banking sector as a vital contributor to economic growth. Originality/value: To the best of the author's knowledge, this paper is the first to evaluate financial development and economic growth for the case of Qatar in light of recent developments in Islamic finance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Supply chain instabilities and inflated material prices have had a disruptive impact on cost estimating of construction projects. While several research efforts used national macroeconomic indicators to forecast the prices of domestically produced construction materials, none of the existing studies investigated whether the lagged macroeconomic indicators of the main trading partners could enhance the predictability of the prices of cement, steel, and lumber in the US construction sector. This paper fills this knowledge gap. The authors adopted a multi-step methodology that included: (1) collecting data on the target variables and the candidate leading indicators; (2) identifying the structural breaks in the collected data sets; (3) conducting causality tests to identify short-term associations and cointegration tests to examine long-term relationships; (4) developing vector error correction (VEC) models to forecast the prices in the short and long terms; and (5) evaluating the performance of the proposed models against existing forecasting models in the literature. Results of the Granger test and Johansen test indicate that Canada's overall producer price index (PPI) is a consistent leading indicator of the prices of cement, and Mexico's overall PPI is a consistent leading indicator of the prices of steel. Findings indicate no statistical evidence to suggest that neither Canada's PPI nor Mexico's PPI can be leading indicators of lumber prices. Over an 18-month ahead of sample horizon, the presented VEC models of cement and steel prices outperformed existing models, particularly beyond the 1-year-ahead forecasts. Utilization of the proposed forecasting models can significantly enhance the accuracy of cost estimates and feasibility studies of construction projects. This provides proactive financial planning for construction contractors and project owners through improved short- and long-term forecasting of the prices of main construction materials. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Chiller fault diagnosis plays a crucial role in optimizing energy efficiency within heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems. The non-stationary nature of chiller fault data presents a significant challenge, as conventional methodologies often fail to adequately capture the relationships between non-stationary variables. To address this limitation and enhance diagnostic accuracy, this paper proposes an improved graph deviation network for chiller fault diagnosis by integrating the sparse cointegration analysis and the convolutional block attention mechanism. First, in order to obtain sparse fault features in non-stationary operation, this paper adopts the sparse cointegration analysis method (SCA). Further, to augment the diagnosis accuracy, this paper proposes the improved graph deviation network (IGDN) to classify fault datasets, which is a combination of the output of a graph deviation network (GDN) with a convolutional block attention mechanism (CBAM). This novel architecture enables sequential evaluation of attention maps along independent temporal and spatial dimensions, followed by element-wise multiplication with input features for adaptive feature optimization. Finally, detailed experiments and comparisons are performed. Comparative analyses reveal that SCA outperforms alternative feature extraction algorithms in addressing the non-stationary characteristics of chiller systems. Furthermore, the IGDN exhibits superior fault diagnosis accuracy across various fault severity levels. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper addresses the controversial issue of the direct and indirect effects of public R&D on growth. We look at six variables of R&D-driven growth jointly for 14 OECD countries using methods of dynamic systems for panel data analysis: GDP, technical change, domestic and foreign businesses and public R&D. Cointegration tests suggest four long-run relations for the six variables. We estimate these relations using group mean versions of fully modified and dynamic OLS. Domestic public R&D has positive long-run regression coefficients for direct effects on productivity and indirect ones via private R&D. Here, we build a panel vector-error-correction model with these long-term relations. Shocks to domestic public R&D enhance domestic private R&D, technical change and the GDP. Permanent changes in foreign public and private R&D have positive growth effects, which are transitional for foreign public R&D. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines the asymmetric impact of financial development on economic growth in Mauritius during the period 1980–2021. The analyses were carried out using a nonlinear autoregressive distributed lag (NARDL) model in conjunction with additional complementary tests, including the NARDL bounds F-test for cointegration, the Brock-Dechert-Scheinkman (BDS) nonlinearity test, and the Wald test for asymmetries. The findings of the bounds F-test provide support for a nonlinear cointegration, whereas the BDS test shows the presence of nonlinearity in the data for all the variables. The Wald test results revealed an asymmetric relationship between financial development and economic growth in Mauritius, both in the short and long run. The NARDL findings show that, on average, positive changes in financial development lead to economic growth in the long and short run. Therefore, the paper encourages the government of Mauritius to continue pursuing policies aimed at the expansion of its financial sector since it has a significant positive impact on its economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper explores the knowledge network structure of foreign research literature by applying the qualitative comparative analysis (QCA) method to the field of information science and library science (ISLS) from the perspective of the cocitation of social network actors such as authors, institutions, countries, and literature, and it further reveals the future application trends of this method. [Method/process] Based on 86 journals in the ISLS field that were downloaded from the Web of Science using the QCA method, the social network analysis (SNA) method and the visual analysis tool Gephi are used to analyse the author cooperation network, the research institution cooperation network, the national cooperation network, the cocitation network, the cutting-edge trends, etc., of journal papers. The analysis shows that the QCA method covers a wide range within the field of ISLS, but the research topics involved in this field are not concentrated, and the author cooperation network has scale-free characteristics. The application of the QCA method is still dominant in European and American countries, and China, the USA, and Italy all play key roles in the national cooperation network. Finally, the institutional cooperation network has certain small group attributes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Fractional cointegration in time series data has been explored by several authors, but panel data applications have been largely neglected. A previous study of ours discovered that the Chen and Hurvich fractional cointegration test for time series was fairly robust to a moderate degree of heterogeneity across sections of the six tests considered. Therefore, this paper advances a customized version of the Chen and Hurvich methodology to detect cointegrating connections in panels with unobserved fixed effects. Specifically, we develop a test statistic that accommodates variation in the long-term cointegrating vectors and fractional cointegration parameters across observational units. The behavior of our proposed test is examined through extensive Monte Carlo experiments under various data-generating processes and circumstances. The findings reveal that our modified test performs quite well comparatively and can successfully identify fractional cointegrating relationships in panels, even in the presence of idiosyncratic disturbances unique to each cross-sectional unit. Furthermore, the proposed modified test procedure established the presence of long-run equilibrium between the exchange rate and labor wage of 36 countries' agricultural markets. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper studies the convergence of environmental sustainability and its main determinants in selected American countries. In addition, it studies the impact of economic activity, income inequality, trade openness, and innovative activity on the sustainability of these countries. Convergence tests such as unit root and club convergence are applied. Furthermore, cointegration and causality tests are used, and long-term parameters are estimated using methods robust for cross-sectional dependence. The results show evidence of stochastic convergence with the univariate unit root tests in the five indicators (energy consumption, carbon dioxide emissions, ecological footprint, energy intensity, and load capacity factor) used, while with the panel data unit root tests only in four (carbon dioxide emissions, ecological footprint, energy intensity, and load capacity factor). There is no evidence of convergence towards a single club considering the complete sample, but there is evidence of convergence towards several clubs. The variables are integrated of order one and are cointegrated. Moreover, using robust estimators in the presence of cross-sectional dependence in long-term economic activity, income inequality, trade openness, and innovative activity deteriorate sustainability, while renewable energy improves it in these countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper uses fractional integration and cointegration methods to analyze the long-run relationship between loans to non-financial corporations, real gross domestic product, real gross fixed capital formation, the cost of borrowing differential between long- and short-term rates, and a proxy for the cost of debt, securities, and equity issuance. The analysis includes four Eurozone countries, namely Germany, France, Italy, and Spain, and spans the most recent decades. More precisely, fractional integration and cointegration models are estimated to investigate the persistence of the series as well as their long-run relationships and short-run dynamics using both unrestricted and restricted specifications. The univariate results are heterogeneous, the highest degrees of integration being found in the case of loans to non-financial corporations, whilst the multivariate ones provide evidence of a single fractional cointegration vector as well as of a lower adjustment speed to the long-run equilibrium compared to previous studies in all four countries. Moreover, both the short- and long-run response of loans to exogenous shocks to real gross domestic product and the cost of borrowing differentials differs across countries because of country-specific factors. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of International Economics / Economia Internazionale is the property of Camera di Commercio di Genova and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

The aim of this paper is to develop a model of the real equilibrium CZK/EUR exchange rate with all relevant explanatory variables. Emphasis will be placed on examining the longest possible time horizon, with a period of real convergence, but also economic stagnation. The model is based on the theoretical BEER approach using a cointegration or error correction model that distinguishes between short-term and long-term relationships. The results show that the Czech koruna strengthens when the productivity differential, terms of trade differential or gross fixed capital formation increase, while the koruna weakens when the VIX index representing global risk aversion increases. For the real interest rate differential, the hypothesis that the koruna strengthens in the short run during the improvement but weakens in the long run probably due to the country's risk premium, was confirmed. Moreover, it turned out that the start of the European Central Bank's quantitative easing led to strengthening of the Czech koruna, while the start of the CNB's foreign exchange interventions in 2013 led to weakening of the Czech koruna. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Based on the micro-electro-mechanical system (MEMS) technology, acoustic emission sensors have gained popularity owing to their small size, consistency, affordability and easy integration. This study aims to provide direction for the advancement of MEMS acoustic emission sensors and predict their future potential for structural health detection of microprecision instruments. Design/methodology/approach: This paper summarizes the recent research progress of three MEMS acoustic emission sensors, compares their individual strengths and weaknesses, analyzes their research focus and predicts their development trend in the future. Findings: Piezoresistive, piezoelectric and capacitive MEMS acoustic emission sensors are the three main streams of MEMS acoustic emission sensors, which have their own advantages and disadvantages. The existing research has not been applied in practice, and MEMS acoustic emission sensor still needs further research in the aspects of wide frequency/high sensitivity, good robustness and integration with complementary metal oxide semiconductor. MEMS acoustic emission sensor has great development potential. Originality/value: In this paper, the existing research achievements of MEMS acoustic emission sensors are described systematically, and the further development direction of MEMS acoustic emission sensors in the future research field is pointed out. It provides an important reference value for the actual weak acoustic emission signal detection in narrow structures. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Journal of Economics & Administrative Sciences is the property of Republic of Iraq Ministry of Higher Education & Scientific Research (MOHESR) and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

Discrepancies between several South-Eastern European (SEE) countries and Nordic countries are investigated in this paper using an econometric analysis. Its aim is to examine the relationship between CO2 emissions, GDP per capita, urban population (URB) and electricity production from Renewable Energy Sources (RES) - EPREN, excluding hydroelectric for the two groups of EU countries located in the North and S-E of Europe. The data covers a period from 1990 to 2022, providing a comprehensive view over three decades. The relationship between the four variables is determined by various causality and cointegration tests. We check the unit root tests and conclude that the analyzed time series are stationary at first difference. Further, we estimate two models: Fully Modified and Dynamic Ordinary Least Squares and study causality and cointegration between variables. The results show that CO2 emissions are impacted by GDP, URB and EPREN for both regions. Testing causality, for SEE and Nordic countries, the bidirectional and causalities do exist. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

China, situated in the circum-Pacific seismic belt, experiences frequent seismic activity and faces diverse geological conditions, making structural stability of paramount importance, especially under seismic conditions. The majority of current earthquake generation methods do not consider the nonstationary nature of earthquakes. This paper introduces a spectral representation-random function model for generating nonstationary earthquakes, effectively simulating stochastic seismic ground motion. Furthermore, traditional slope stability analysis methods are deterministic and incapable of providing probabilistic assessments of slope instability. Therefore, this paper proposes a unified framework for static and dynamic structural reliability analysis based on the direct probability integration method, quantifying the impact of stochastic seismic ground motion on the dynamic reliability of slope stability. Finally, the proposed methods are applied to an excavation slope in Nanjing, using sliding displacement and safety factors as evaluation criteria to study the reliability of the slope under the influence of stochastic seismic events. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents evidence on the relationship concerning military spending among Southeast Mediterranean countries (Greece – Turkey, Israel – Egypt, Israel – Turkey) over the period 1962–2020. We account for the presence of nonlinearities in the bilateral relationships of defence spending by applying Threshold Autoregressive methodologies and utilize kink regression analysis to detect the existence of a country's military spending threshold that signals a threat to another country of the region. Our empirical results show: First, there is a nonlinear strategic interaction between the countries examined, in the sense that their defence spending policy is cointegrated. Second, there is no arms race among the countries examined, but only unilateral effects. Third, there is consistent evidence of a possible military spending equilibrium, in the absence of friction between the countries involved (peace threshold). Our findings have important policy implications as they indicate, first, that each country in the region should not determine its level of military spending considering only operational factors, but also considering the signaling of its military spending on its neighboring countries and, second, that there is space for peaceful solutions regarding disputes in the Southeast Mediterranean region. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We use a co-authorship network analysis to describe and examine the social network of researchers studying physical education content knowledge worldwide. Co-authorship network analysis is a method for determining the scope, trend, and focus of research around a topic. It provides a way to evaluate both the growth of a field and to examine the extent of research collaboration. Our review consists of 101 articles that were examined in our network analysis. Our results show that the research on content knowledge occurs within and among 13 high-income economies. Research productivity in this area is on an upward trajectory since 1990. The research in physical education occurs in a distributed network with some authors serving as key hubs for research collaboration. From a global perspective, there is a need to create links to low-income economies to strengthen their research capacity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Copyright of Mexican Journal of Economics & Finance / Revista Mexicana de Economia y Finanzas is the property of Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas and its content may not be copied or emailed to multiple sites or posted to a listserv without the copyright holder's express written permission. However, users may print, download, or email articles for individual use. This abstract may be abridged. No warranty is given about the accuracy of the copy. Users should refer to the original published version of the material for the full abstract. (Copyright applies to all Abstracts.)

This study investigated the effect of government expenditure on real growth in ECOWAS countries. This paper used panel cointegration techniques to examine the impact of government expenditure on economic growth for a sample of 15 ECOWAS countries between 1999 and 2021. The study uses the POLS, FMOLS, and DOLS techniques for estimating four models. The study supports the view that government expenditure positively affects real economic growth in ECOWAS countries. However, we also found that higher control of corruption improves the effectiveness and efficiency of government expenditure in promoting economic growth. Furthermore, a higher incidence of conflict minimizes the effectiveness and efficiency of government expenditure in promoting economic growth. The finding suggests that a well-managed government can contribute positively to economic growth. The finding that government expenditure positively affects real growth in ECOWAS countries suggests that a well-managed government can contribute positively to economic growth. This finding is helpful for policymakers in ECOWAS countries interested in improving their countries' economic growth. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper utilizes fractional integration and cointegration techniques to investigate the stochastic properties of the bilateral linkages between the Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI) of eight developed economies, Australia, Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, the UK and the US and five emerging economies comprising Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa, for the time period from 15th January 2010 to 15th July 2019. The univariate results support fractional integration with mean reverting behaviour, with many of the series displaying orders of integration in the interval (0, 1), which connotes that shocks to consumer sentiment have significant long-lasting though reverting effects. From the covariate results and testing for cointegration, we found evidence of cointegration for Australia versus Italy, and France versus Italy. For the BRICS, the only evidence of fractional cointegration is found between Russia and India. Some policy implications of the results obtained are also mentioned at the end of the article. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Theoretical predictions of the effect of technological change on employment are ambiguous and depend on the extent to which new technology is embodied in new jobs. This paper separates positive and negative shocks and examines the extent to which technological shocks have an asymmetric effect on unemployment in nine European countries by using hidden cointegration analysis within a likelihood‐based panel framework. The findings are consistent with the hypothesis that technological changes have had an unequal effect on unemployment because negative and positive shocks have different impacts on unemployment in terms of sign and size. It is interesting to note that women appear to be the group most negatively impacted by technological shocks. The estimates also show that the results are inconsistent because technological advancement has resulted in 'creative destruction' in four countries while 'creative creation' has occurred in five of them. It is worth mentioning that the methodological framework utilized in this paper can be a useful tool for predicting the behaviour of technological shocks. Policy implications are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper examines trends and dynamics of the Mining sector of Tanzania over a time span of 100 years. To do so, econometrics analysis is used to estimate cointegration model for trends within the span of time from 1966 till 2023. Qualitative analysis is also undertaken and empirical findings confirm five distinct regimes of mining sector performance since 1898 namely; the gold boom from 1898 till 1950, diamond boom from 1950 up to 1966, drastic fall from 1966 till 1997, recovery from 1997 up to 2010 and gold boom from 2010 to date. Tracing from 2000 when Vision 2025 was adopted, paper estimates show that the mining sector performance has been extraordinary from 1 percent in 1997 to 10 percent share of GDP by 2023 and export contribution has increased from US dollar 26 million in 1997 to 2.9 billion by 2023. Legal, regulatory and institutional frameworks at sectoral and macro level substantially influence the observed performance. The paper shows that the error correction term is correctly signed and statistically significant and, the coefficient of minerals export is statistically significant such that a 1 percent increase in mineral export will lead to a 0. 43 percentage increase of total export in the long run, with 77 percent speed of convergence to equilibrium. In terms of contribution to GDP, the results show that 1 percent increase in minerals production lead to 0.16 percent increase of GDP. Further analysis of the paper demonstrates high intensity of the correlation, integration and linkages effects between mining sector with other sectors particularly manufacturing. Thus, mining sector generally has potential to maximize gains from economic and social development whereas discovery of huge deposits of rare earth elements in Tanzania and availability of wide range of industrial mineral in nearly all regions of Tanzania have a potential of becoming a new backbone of Tanzania and enable manufacturing contribution over 30 percent of GDP. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The profound changes brought about by informatization and digitalization have given rise to the user-centered innovation concept, and value co-creation by enterprises has become an inevitable trend. It has become a pressing issue for scholars to analyze the mechanism of consumer participation in the value co-creation of innovative enterprises. In this paper, by establishing an evolutionary game model between consumers and innovative enterprises, we analyze in depth the mechanism of consumer participation in the value co-creation of innovative enterprises. The results show that the initial cooperation probability between consumers and innovative enterprises directly affects their strategic choices; the establishment of reward mechanisms makes consumers more inclined to choose active participation in value co-creation strategies; as the probability of non-cooperation between the two parties being reported increases, the probability of consumers and innovative enterprises choosing cooperation also increases. Studying the mechanism of consumer participation in the value co-creation of innovative enterprises has essential theoretical and practical significance for enterprises to achieve value creation, enhance competitiveness, and promote innovation. This study not only enriches and develops relevant theories but also provides guidance and support for the practice of enterprises, promoting sustainable development and successful co-creation. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The notion that investors shift to gold during economic market crises remains unverified for many cryptocurrency markets. This paper investigates the connectedness between the 10 most traded cryptocurrencies and gold as well as crude oil markets pre-COVID-19 and during COVID-19. Through the application of various statistical techniques, including cointegration tests, vector autoregressive models, vector error correction models, autoregressive distributed lag models, and Granger causality analyses, we explore the relationship between these markets and assess the safe-haven properties of gold and crude oil for cryptocurrencies. Our findings reveal that during the COVID-19 pandemic, gold is a strong safe-haven for Bitcoin, Litecoin, and Monero while demonstrating a weaker safe-haven potential for Bitcoin Cash, EOS, Chainlink, and Cardano. In contrast, gold only exhibits a strong safe-haven characteristic before the pandemic for Litecoin and Monero. Additionally, Brent crude oil emerges as a strong safe-haven for Bitcoin during COVID-19, while West Texas Intermediate and Brent crude oils demonstrate weaker safe-haven properties for Ether, Bitcoin Cash, EOS, and Monero. Furthermore, the Granger causality analysis indicates that before the COVID-19 pandemic, the causal relationship predominantly flowed from gold and crude oil toward the cryptocurrency markets; however, during the COVID-19 period, the direction of causality shifted, with cryptocurrencies exerting influence on the gold and crude oil markets. These findings provide subtle implications for policymakers, hedge fund managers, and individual or institutional cryptocurrency investors. Our results highlight the need to adapt risk exposure strategies during financial turmoil, such as the crisis precipitated by the COVID-19 pandemic. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Qatar, a wealthy country with an open economy has limited arable land. To meet its domestic food demand, the country heavily relies on food imports. Additionally, the over three year-long economic embargo enforced by regional neighbors and the covariate shock of the COVID-19 pandemic have demonstrated the country's vulnerability to food insecurity and potential for structural breaks in macroeconomic data. The purpose of this paper is to examine short- and long-run determinants of Qatar's imports of aggregate food, meats, dairy and cereals in the presence of structural breaks. Design/methodology/approach: The authors use 24 years of food imports, gross domestic product (GDP) and consumer price index (CPI) data obtained from Qatar's Planning and Statistics Authority. They use the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) cointegration framework and Chambers and Pope's exact nonlinear aggregation approach. Findings: Unit root tests in the presence of structural breaks reveal a mixture of I (1) and I (0) variables for which standard cointegration techniques do not apply. The authors found evidence of a significant long-run relationship between structural changes and food imports in Qatar. Impulse response functions indicate full adjustments within three-quarters of a year in the event of an exogenous shock to imports. Research limitations/implications: An exogenous shock of one standard deviation on this variable would reduce Qatar's food imports by about 2.5% during the first period but recover after the third period. Originality/value: The failure of past aggregate food demand studies to go beyond standard unit root testing creates considerable doubt about the accuracy of their elasticity estimates. The authors avoid that to provide more credible findings. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates whether carbon dioxide (CO2) intensity of gross domestic product (GDP) matters for environmental deregulations in Southern European countries over the period of 1990–2018 while controlling economic growth, globalization, and energy consumption. The present study uses the second generation panel based techniques, namely cross-sectional dependency test, cross-sectional unit-root test, Westerlund cointegration test, augmented mean group and common correlated effects mean group estimators, and Dumitrescu–Hurlin causality test to measure the effect of CO2 intensity of GDP, economic growth, globalization, and energy consumption on environmental degradation. The empirical finding of the present study reveals that the CO2 intensity of GDP is an important factor in determining environmental degradation in South European countries, as the outcomes show that a 1% boost in CO2 intensity of GDP is causing a 1.7728% increase in CO2 emissions. Moreover, a 1% increase in economic growth caused a 0.2568% boost in CO2 emissions. The result is crucial for policy decision-making and can perhaps be applied to take decisive policy actions to mitigate environmental issues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Tajikistan holds the eighth position globally in terms of hydropower potential, estimated at 527 terawatt-hours (TWh), with a technically exploitable capacity of 317 TWh. Only 4–6 percent of this immense potential is currently utilized. In this paper, employing a combination of the Johansen cointegration test, vector autoregression, and the Granger-causality test on annual data from 1993 to 2021, we examine the causality relationship between electricity production and key macroeconomic variables, including gross domestic product (GDP), GDP per capita, exports, imports, final consumption, capital investment, and employment, in Tajikistan. The empirical findings reveal a positive unidirectional causality from electricity production to exports and imports. A positive bidirectional or feedback causality is found between electricity production and variables such as GDP, GDP per capita, final consumption, and employment. No causality relationship between electricity production and variables such as trade openness and capital investment is observed. The exploration of complex causal relationships between electricity production and key macroeconomic variables in Tajikistan, as revealed in this study, offers a modest yet meaningful addition to academic discourse. It presents insights that may inform policymakers and stakeholders, albeit with a recognition of the limitations inherent in the findings. These insights could potentially guide the formulation of sustainable development strategies and shed light on the underutilized potential of the country's hydropower resources. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Power systems with a high proportion of inverter-based sources like photovoltaics require a substantial short-circuit current ratio to ensure strong voltage support capabilities. However, this also increases the system's short-circuit current capacity and levels, which may potentially affect the safe operation of system equipment and current-carrying conductors. To evaluate the operational risks, this paper proposes a quantitative calculation model for the critical integration proportion of grid-connected inverter-interfaced power sources based on short-circuit current over-limit probability. Firstly, according to the verification criterion about short-circuit current during the selection of the switching equipment and conductors in the power system, the short-circuit current over-limit probability evaluation system with five indices is established. Secondly, considering the impact of the increased grid integration proportion of inverter-based power sources on short-circuit currents, an evaluation process for operational risk probabilities is proposed. Based on this, the critical access proportion for inverter-based power source integration in the power grid can be calculated. Finally, the proposed model is used to assess the operational risk probability for a 220 kV system which includes a high proportion of inverter-based power sources in the Anhui area, China. Through the analysis of cumulative probability distribution curves, the critical grid integration proportion interval for the transition from normal to high proportion stages of inverter-based power sources is determined. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the long-run and short-run relationship between money supply and inflation in Pakistan, utilizing annual data spanning from 1981 to 2021. The key objective is to assess the impact of monetary policy, specifically money supply, on inflation dynamics in the country. To achieve this, the Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach is employed, which is suitable for analyzing cointegration among variables with mixed integration orders. The results reveal both short and long-run cointegration between inflation, money supply, unemployment, and interest rates. Notably, unemployment demonstrates a negative correlation with inflation, while money supply and interest rates exhibit a positive relationship. These findings underscore the importance of dedicated policy measures to manage inflation effectively. The paper concludes by recommending the establishment of a policy implementation body and collaboration between the government and the central bank to ensure financial stability and control inflation through well-calibrated monetary and fiscal policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper contributes to the social science literature when analyzing survey or time series data social scientists use spurious regression without due consideration of its assumptions and the data structure. This results in misinterpretation and misleading conclusions about the population. The paper reviews basic statistical and econometrics literature which led to the development of modern time series analysis in the presence of spurious regression. It concludes that the term 'Spurious' was well known before the Granger and Yule's work in time series context rather than cross-sectional data. The same reasons can produce spurious regression today and surely the solution doesn't exist in the cointegration analysis. Social scientists and applied econometrician investigators need more serious thinking and care to avoid spurious regression, if it is necessary even if data is stationary or cross-sectional. In this study, we extended the Ghouse experiment which is based on simulated data by employing real-world data to assess the effectiveness of the newly proposed Ghouse Equation in comparison to conventional approaches. The findings demonstrate that the Ghouse Equation produces the lowest probability of spurious regression as compared to its counterparts. Moreover, in forecasting performance, Ghouse Equation outperformed its counterparts. These results highlight the Ghouse Equation as a valuable and better tool for econometric analysis for nonstationary time series. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This methodology paper introduces a collective, team-based approach to constructing narratives in narrative research. The goal of the larger study was to explore the pedagogical belief and practices of engineering faculty members. The newly formed team of researchers ranged from novices to experts in the field of qualitative research, and this space created a unique opportunity to reflect on and explore the co-construction of Cody's narrative, the first narrative that the team constructed. The narrative was smoothed and constructed in a way that reduces some of the limitations inherent in narrative smoothing, through a deliberate and intentional negotiation process. We hope that this deeper exploration of our methods is helpful for other narrative researchers who are interested in team-based approaches to co-construction of narratives. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

By sustaining the required capital and investment, the financial sector plays a critical role in achieving economic growth and stability. This paper conducts a comprehensive examination of the relationships between stock market development and economic growth in 11 post-socialist countries and China. Unbalanced panel data from selected countries from 1995 to 2020 were used for this study. We wanted to disclose the cointegration of crucial variables in assessing Granger causalities using the Vector Auto-Regressive (VAR) model. Our findings confirm the Neutrality Hypothesis (NLH) when we investigated the existence of an independent association between Economic Growth (EG) and the Composite Index of Stock Market Development (SMD). The study's recommendations emphasize the significance of changing economic policies to account for disparities in economic growth and stock market development to ensure sustainable development in the selected countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In most cases, researchers assume that control of corruption, rule of law, accountability, and government expenditure tend to have a positive impact on government effectiveness. Nonetheless, recent theoretical and empirical evidence supports a mixed relationship between these variables. The paper, therefore, seeks to answer the extent to which corruption, the rule of law, accountability, and government expenditure affect government effectiveness. We employed Johansen method of cointegration and vector error correction model to examine the long-run and short-run relationship between the variables under study. By using Sri Lankan data covering the period from 1996 to 2020, we find a significant and positive relationship only between the control of corruption and government effectiveness both in the long run and in the short run. Yet, rule of law has a positive and significant impact on government effectiveness only in the long run. Voice and accountability, and government expenditure affect the government's effectiveness negatively in the long run and positively in the short run. The article demonstrates that weak anti-corruption mechanisms and weak legal and criminal justice systems seem to have a detrimental impact on government effectiveness in developing countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The application of machine learning in the medical field has resulted in significant advancements in computer-aided pathological diagnosis. Multiple instance learning (MIL) has emerged as a promising approach for pathological image classification, particularly in scenarios where local annotations are lacking. However, current MIL models often overlook the importance of feature weights in the channel dimension and struggle with imbalanced positive and negative data. To address these limitations, an integration of a channel attention (CA) module and an augmented data (AUG) mechanism into the MIL model is proposed, resulting in improved performance. The CA module dynamically assigns weights to example features in the channel dimension, enhancing or suppressing features adaptively. Additionally, the AUG mechanism effectively balances the distribution of positive and negative data, significantly reducing false negatives. Through ablation experiments, the contributions of the CA module and AUG mechanism in enhancing the overall model performance are analyzed. Experimental validations on the CAMELYON16/17 public pathological image datasets demonstrate that the proposed model and method outperform existing approaches, with particular emphasis on reducing false negatives. Highlights: While multiple instance learning (MIL) models address scarce local annotations in pathological images, existing methods often neglect feature weights in the channel dimension and struggle with imbalanced data. This study introduces a novel approach by proposing a channel attention (CA) module and data augmentation mechanism for integration into the MIL model, significantly improving its performance. By conducting carefully designed ablation experiments, this study probes into the precise contributions of the introduced CA module and data augmentation mechanism towards enhancing the performance of the MIL model. Through validation on public datasets reveals that the proposed method excels over the latest methods by notably reducing false negatives, thereby enhancing sensitivity metrics. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Cointegration has shown useful for modeling non‐stationary data with long‐run equilibrium relationships among variables, with applications in many fields such as econometrics, climate research and biology. However, the analyses of vector autoregressive models are becoming more difficult as data sets of higher dimensions are becoming available, in particular because the number of parameters is quadratic in the number of variables. This leads to lack of statistical robustness, and regularisation methods are paramount for obtaining valid estimates. In the last decade, many papers have appeared suggesting different penalisation approaches to the inference problem. Here, we make a comprehensive review of different penalisation methods adapted to the specific structure of vector cointegrated models suggested in the literature, with relevant references to software packages. The methods are evaluated and compared according to a range of error measures in a simulation study, considering combinations of low and high dimension of the system and small and large sample sizes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The impact of financial inclusion on economic growth is a topic that is generating widespread interest among researchers and practitioners. In this paper, the authors review the existing literature to highlight the state of research in the literature and identify new opportunities for innovative research. Design/methodology/approach: The authors used a thematic literature review methodology which involves dividing the review along relevant themes. Findings: The authors find that significant research on the topic emerged in the post-2016 years. Most of the existing studies are from developing countries and from the Asian and African regions. Existing studies have not utilized relevant theories in explaining the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth. Most studies report a positive impact of financial inclusion on economic growth while very few studies show a negative impact. The most common channel through which financial inclusion affects economic growth is through greater access to financial products and services offered by financial institutions that increases financial intermediation and translates to positive economic growth. The common empirical methodology used in the literature are causality tests, cointegration and regression methods. Multiple proxies of financial inclusion and economic growth were used in the literature which partly explains the conflicting result among existing studies. The review paper concludes by identifying some directions for future research. Originality/value: This paper presents the first rigorous thematic review of the existing literature on the impact of financial inclusion on economic growth. It highlights the main approach that researchers have taken on this topic and identifies some important research areas for future investigation. Peer review: The peer review history for this article is available at: https://publons.com/publon/10.1108/IJSE-05-2022-0339. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to test the overshooting effects of monetary expansion on prices of agricultural products at farm production, processing and circulation stages in China, and to investigate the heterogeneity of the overshooting mechanisms in these three links. Design/methodology/approach: Empirical results are obtained through the vector error correction model and the overshooting framework proposed by Saghaian et al. (2002b). Specifically, we first apply the Dickey–Fuller generalized least squares (DF-GLS) method to test the stationarity of the key variables, and then use the Johansen's (1991) method to conduct the cointegration test. Finally, the vector error correction model is employed to examine the overshooting hypotheses in the three stages of China's agricultural sector. Findings: Empirical results indicate that overshooting of prices relative to monetary expansion in China's agricultural sector is a common phenomenon, but with significant heterogeneity. Firstly, at the stage of agricultural production, the overshooting degree and restoration rate of material price are greater than those of agricultural products price. Secondly, at the processing stage of agricultural products, both the purchase price of agricultural products and industrial producer price have an overshooting effect, but the overshooting effect of the former is more significant than the latter. Thirdly, at the circulation stage of agricultural products, the overshooting coefficient of the wholesale price index of agricultural products is the most significant, while that of the retail and purchase price of agricultural products is not significant. Originality/value: The paper contributes to proposing a comprehensive framework on testing the overshooting effects for three main stages of agricultural sector in China and empirically investigating the heterogeneity of the overshooting mechanisms in different stages with time series methods. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper focuses on investigating the correlation and volatility of fuel markets in four countries of the Visegrad region, namely Hungary, the Czech Republic, Poland, and Slovakia. The primary objective of the paper is to explore regional fuel markets and retail prices in these countries by employing VAR models and Johansen procedures to analyze the interrelationships between Visegrad fuel markets. Additionally, the paper uses multivariate dynamic conditional GARCH (DCC GARCH-M) models to examine the volatility and covariance of fuel prices in these nations. The results of the study indicate that there are no long-term connections between Visegrad gasoline prices. The performance of the domestic price is independent of other markets. The research also shows long-term relations of diesel prices only among some countries. Overall, the size of these relations is small and mostly statistically insignificant. These findings provide valuable insights into the fuel markets of the Visegrad countries and can be useful in formulating policies related to energy and fuel price regulation. Overall, the study contributes to the literature on fuel markets in the Visegrad region and provides policymakers and stakeholders with essential information necessary for making informed decisions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In order to improve the economic growth efficiency of industrial and commercial enterprises in coastal cities and realize the GDP growth of coastal cities, this paper studies the economic growth factors of industrial and commercial enterprises in coastal cities based on the unexpected super efficiency model. Based on the research and analysis of the previous economic growth theories, this paper finds out the main factors that affect the economic growth of industrial and commercial enterprises in coastal cities, and uses the advanced econometric method to establish the relevant test model to analyze the correlation between the time series of economic growth factors and the time series of coastal cities, so as to realize the economic growth factors of industrial and commercial enterprises in coastal cities Element study. The empirical results show that the main factors affecting the economic growth of industrial and commercial enterprises in coastal cities are capital and labor force, with labor force as the main body; Technical and institutional factors also contribute to the GDP of industrial and commercial enterprises in coastal cities, but the impact is not significant and needs further improvement. In general, these factors can promote the economic growth of industrial and commercial enterprises in coastal cities. The time series and time series of each factor variable are first-order non-stationary series with long-term cointegration relationship. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Portuguese First Republic (1910–1926) was marked by significant instability at the most diverse levels. With a special focus on the financial dimension of this period, the objective of this paper is to test the sustainability of the Portuguese fiscal policy, also referred to as the sustainability of public finances itself. The methodology involves testing the stationarity of public debt and budget balance and also the cointegration between state revenue and expenditure. The results obtained shows that the state's intertemporal budgetary constraint was violated during the First Republic regime, which denotes unsustainability. This conclusion is justified by the existence of a non-stationary budget balance and the absence of cointegration between state revenue and expenditure. These results are manifestly different from those that have already been obtained for other Portuguese regimes, namely for the Estado Novo (1933–1974) and democracy (1974–present), where sustainability existed. This paper is yet another demonstration of how important it is to maintain control of state's accounts. We hope that this paper can be useful to stimulate new research on Portuguese public finances and also on the important issue of fiscal policy sustainability. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: This paper empirically investigates the effect of economic policy uncertainty (EPU) on the UK money demand stability during the inter-war period (1920–1938). Both a narrow definition (M0) and a broad definition (M3) of money are investigated. Design/methodology/approach: The empirical investigation is conducted by employing the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) bounds testing approach to cointegration. Findings: Results presented indicate a stable demand for both definitions of money only when EPU is included as one of the determinants of demand function. The EPU imposes a negative effect on the demand for both definitions of money. The causality test results further indicate long- and short-term causality from the determinants (including EPU) to both forms of money demand. Practical implications: Significant presence of the economic uncertainty weakens the effects of the monetary policy on the economy. Originality/value: This is a historical economics paper. Given the turmoil and uncertainty associated with the inter-war period, an empirical investigation of UK money demand is an interesting exercise. This is the first such paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper investigates the relationship between tourism, energy consumption, trade openness, economic growth, and CO2 emissions for 20 economies of the APEC region from 1995 to 2017. This paper employs cross-sectional dependence with heterogeneous panel estimation techniques. The data confirms cross-sectional dependence, and the CIPS panel unit root test shows that the variables are stationary at their first differences. The Westerlund panel cointegration test affirms a long-run relationship among the variables. Tourism and trade openness have significant positive effects on CO2 emissions while economic growth and energy consumption adversely affect CO2 emissions in the long-run. The panel non-causality test reveals that there is a one-way causality running from tourism to CO2 emissions and economic growth to CO2 emissions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This research investigates the relationship between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. The research conducted an analysis of Nigerian data using the Ordinary Least Square (OLS) technique and identified that Exchange Rates have a favourable impact on Economic Growth. This paper affirmed the regression's validity with stationary residuals and found no long-term equilibrium using Bound Cointegration. The ARDL modelling revealed short-term connections between exchange rates and economic growth. Positive correlations were observed between exchange rates, GDP per capita growth, interest rates, and total exports, while negative relationships were noted with inflation and total imports, highlighting the importance of exchange rate stability in sustaining economic growth. This research provides a novel viewpoint on the connection between exchange rates and economic growth in Nigeria during the period from 1981 to 2019. It uncovers that more than 98% of the fluctuations in exchange rates can be accounted for by the included variables. The noteworthy discovery of the absence of a long-term equilibrium relationship within the specified time frame sets this study apart. Furthermore, it underscores the crucial role of exchange rate stability in promoting enduring economic growth, emphasising the necessity for well-designed policies that consider the intricate economic landscape. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the present paper, a Johansen’s cointegration analysis is carried out considering the volume of exports from Azerbaijan to Ukraine, GDP per capita of Ukraine, the openness of the economy of Ukraine and the economically active population of Azerbaijan for the period 1996-2022, also a comparative analysis of the above indicators is carried out, the characteristics of joint short-term and long-term movements are determined. In the course of research the author used the methodology of modified gravitational modeling, the econometric methodology of time series analysis, including tests for checking stationarity, the extended Dickey-Fuller test, the Granger test for the detection of causality, determining the cointegration dependence using the Johansen’s test, a Vector Error Correction Model (VECM) has been built. First, a basic modified model of gravity has been built, and the statistical adequacy of this model has been checked. A comparative analysis of two regression models was carried out after the inclusion of the trend component in one of them. The dynamic structure of regression residuals was studied and the test for heteroscedasticity and autocorrelation was carried out. It is shown that the most suitable specification for cointegration is the quadratic trend in the initial levels with a linear trend in cointegration relationships, which has led to the emergence of two cointegration vectors. As a result of the completed analysis, two cointegration relationships are obtained. The results of the impulse response functions, decomposition of dispersions and the VECM model in the form of combinations of two cointegrating vectors with the expected signs of the adjustment integers showed that the economic indicators used in the analysis for the specified period maintain cointegration in the long term with the not stable equilibrium joint movements of the factors under study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper focuses on the examination of the long-run relationship between money supply and selected national and global stock indices. Detailed knowledge of this relationship can be used by analysts, investors and monetary policy makers. Analysis of the relationship was performed using a 2-stage Engle-Granger cointegration. First, the stationarity of the time series was tested, then both the long-term OLS model and the short-term EC model were estimated. Time series were always tested on the longest period for which data were available. The long-term dependence of stock indices on the respective M2 was confirmed for the BOVESPA, FTSE100, S&P/BMV IPC, S&P BSE500, TSX and The 5000 Wilshire Small Cap Price Return indices. In contrast, the dependence between world money supply indicator GlobalM2, the stock index FTSEALL World, and the S&P500 index was not demonstrated. Additionally, no dependence was identified between the respective M2 and the DAX, PX, Nikkei225, KOSPI, SMI, SPCITIC300, Eurostoxx50, Willshire5000PR and ATX indices. Backward dependence of M2 on the stock index was found only for the Chinese SPCITIC300 index. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper investigates the relationship between the gross value added (GVA) of Greece's agricultural sector and the GVAs of the other sectors. The research considers both the relationship between value levels and the cycles of GVAs. Dynamic analysis using ARDL modeling shows that there is no cointegration between agricultural GVA and the other GVAs. However, there is an estimated cointegrating relationship between business cycles of agriculture and those of the rest of the economic sectors, with the cycles of services being the significant variable. Moreover, econometric analysis using NARDL modeling shows that there is a cointegrating relationship between the levels of GVAs as well, when asymmetricity—with respect to GVA changes of the services sector—is introduced. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: Despite the vulnerability of rapidly developing and emerging market economies, researchers have paid less attention to the determination of the size of money laundering (ML) in these economies, including the United Arab Emirates (the UAE). Therefore, this paper aims to estimate the magnitude of ML in the UAE between 1975 and 2020 based on the currency demand approach (CDA). Design/methodology/approach: The study uses the Gregory–Hansen cointegration technique alongside the autoregressive distributed lag bounds testing procedure to estimate the CDA model. Findings: The results illustrate that an amount equivalent to about 19.034% of the GDP is laundered in the UAE between 1975 and 2020, on average, with the value lying between 15.129% and 23.121%. In addition, the results demonstrate the importance of the real estate market, gold trade, remittance channels and the size of the underground economy in facilitating the laundering of illicit funds in the country. Originality/value: To the best of the authors' knowledge, the study is the pioneering attempt at estimating the amount of illicit funds laundered in the UAE. Besides, the adoption of a novel, yet robust, approach based on the modification of the CDA technique also sets the study apart as it ensures a correct, clear, unambiguous and indisputable estimate of the magnitude of ML is obtained. In addition, it is expected that the outcome of the study will expand the frontiers of knowledge among policy makers and relevant agencies and ensure the adoption of the most efficient and effective measures to curb the ML menace in the country. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this paper is to investigate the existence and directions of the causal relationships between the level of tax revenue and a set of determinants, using data from 26 European countries for the period 2015–2018. In particular, by applying the panel cointegration method and estimating panel-based Error Correction Models, the long-run and causal relationships between the variables, are being explored. The results of the analysis confirm the existence of cointegration relationships (long-run relationships) and suggest a significant degree of interdependence. In particular, the investigation showed that the level of GDP per capita and public debt, the assessment of the level of control of corruption, the government effectiveness index, the degree of the efficiency of tax administration and the level of tax rates (individuals and corporate) significantly affect the level of tax revenue collection. The analysis also confirms the existence of macroeconomic interdependence (interconnection) between the European countries. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]