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No prior behavioral science research has delved into the impact of gamble presentation (horizontal or vertical) on individuals' utilitarian behavior, despite evidence suggesting that such choices can be influenced by comparing attributes like probability and money in gambles. This article addresses this gap by exploring the influence of gamble presentation on utilitarian behavior. A two-factor independent measures design was employed to explore the influence of the type of gamble presentation and age on participants' utilitarian decision-making preferences. The findings showed a reduced likelihood of participants choosing the non-utilitarian gamble with vertically presented gambles compared to horizontal ones. Consequently, participants' utilitarian behavior was influenced by between-gamble comparisons of available attributes, with utilitarian choices (e.g., choosing Gamble A) being more prevalent in vertical presentations due to a straightforward comparison on the probability attribute. Furthermore, the results also revealed that older participants take more time than their younger counterparts when making utilitarian errors. We attribute this to their abundant knowledge and experience. Future research should explore the comparative psychological processing used by participants in risky decision-making tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Knight's risk/uncertainty distinction is reviewed in its original context as a contribution to the theory of profit. Knight's approach to probability is paralleled by Ludwig von Mises, as emphasised by recent developments in strategic entrepreneurship theory. Von Mises distinguishes between class probability (i.e., risk) and case probability (i.e., uncertainty) in contrast to the frequentist approach of his brother, Richard von Mises. Keynes's contribution to probability and uncertainty is reviewed, focusing on his logical theory of probability in A Treatise on Probability which he more fully contextualised subsequently in the General Theory. Keynes's fragmentary later philosophical writings are reviewed to provide some insight into the contextual issues encountered. The key contributions of Knight and Keynes are summarised as signposts for 'The Road Less Travelled'. The possibilities of a Keynesian-Knightian synthesis as a way forward are considered by comparing these signposts. However, it is concluded that, although there is some common ground between Knight and Keynes, there are fundamental differences particularly associated with the definition of confidence that preclude any meaningful synthesis. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background This study was conducted as an effort to develop a Korean construction job exposure matrix (KoConJEM) based on 60 occupations recently consolidated by the construction workers mutual aid association for use by the construction industry. Methods The probability, intensity, and prevalence of exposure to 26 hazardous agents for 60 consolidated occupations were evaluated as binary (Yes/No) or four categories (1 to 4) by 30 industrial hygiene experts. The score for risk was calculated by multiplying the exposure intensity by the prevalence of exposure. Fleiss' kappa for each hazardous agent and occupation was used to determine agreement among the 30 experts. The JEM was expressed on a heatmap and a web-based dashboard to facilitate comparison of factors affecting exposure according to each occupation and hazardous agent. Results Awkward posture, heat/cold, heavy lifting, and noise were hazardous agents regarded as exposure is probable by at least one or more experts in all occupations, while exposure to asphalt fumes was considered hazardous in the smallest number of occupations (n = 5). Based on the degree of agreement among experts, more than half of the harmful factors and most occupations showed fair to good results. The highest risk value was 16 for awkward posture for most occupations other than safety officer. Conclusions The KoConJEM provides information on the probability, intensity, and prevalence of exposure to harmful factors, including most occupations employing construction workers; therefore, it may be useful in the conduct of epidemiological studies on assessment of health risk for construction workers. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessments of spatiotemporal fine particulate matter (PM2.5) concentrations are crucial for establishing risk maps and maintaining human health. This study spatiotemporally assessed PM2.5 concentrations in Taiwan by using multivariate indicator kriging (MVIK) according to current Taiwanese and US regulatory standards for annual average PM2.5 concentrations (15 and 12 μg/m3, respectively). First, multivariate integration was implemented to analyze data on PM2.5 concentrations for 2019–2021 and 2020–2022 because of no statistical difference of the 3-year PM2.5 data. MVIK was then used for modeling probabilities according to the two standards. Finally, quantile estimates on the basis of the occurrence probabilities of analyzing PM2.5 concentrations were employed to determine the optimal classifications for establishing risk maps according to the two PM2.5 standards. The study results indicated that the multivariate integration of temporal PM2.5 data in MVIK can effectively streamline the analytic process. The multivariate integration of 3-year PM2.5 data was suitable for assessing the risk categories of the regulatory standards for annual average PM2.5. The greatest estimated difference between the 2019–2021 and 2020–2022 multivariate integrations was in the Northern and Chumiao air quality regions. Because many air quality regions were in the PM2.5 categories of exceeding 12 μg/m3, the regulatory standard for annual average PM2.5 of 12 μg/m3 was inappropriate in Taiwan at this point in time according to assessing the 3-year spatiotemporal variability of PM2.5 concentrations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

An important open question in neuroeconomics is how the brain represents the value of offers in a way that is both abstract (allowing for comparison) and concrete (preserving the details of the factors that influence value). Here, we examine neuronal responses to risky and safe options in five brain regions that putatively encode value in male macaques. Surprisingly, we find no detectable overlap in the neural codes used for risky and safe options, even when the options have identical subjective val)ues (as revealed by preference) in any of the regions. Indeed, responses are weakly correlated and occupy distinct (semi-or)thogonal) encoding subspaces. Notably, however, these subspaces are linked through a linear transform of their constituent encodings, a property that allows for comparison of dissimilar option types. This encoding scheme allows these regions to multiplex decision related processes: they can encode the detailed factors that influence offer value (here, risky and safety) but also directly compare dissimilar offer types. Together these results suggest a neuronal basis for the qualitatively different psychological properties of risky and safe options and highlight the power of population geometry to resolve outstanding problems in neural coding. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Purpose: The purpose of this paper is to analyze the reliability of the quantitative risk model used for planning inspection and maintenance activities. The objective is to critically discuss the factors that contribute to the probability and consequence of failure calculations. Design/methodology/approach: The case study conducted using one of the most widely deployed risk models in the oil and gas industry where a full assessment was performed on an offshore gas producing platform. Findings: The generic failure frequencies used as the basis for calculating the probability of failure are set at a value representative of the refining and petrochemical industry's failure data. This failure database does not cover offshore. The critical discussion indicated the lack of basis of the coefficient of variances, prior probabilities and conditional probabilities. Moreover, the risk model does not address the distribution of thickness measurements, corrosion rates and inspection effectiveness, whereas only overall deterministic values are used; this requires judgment to determine these values. Probabilities of ignition, probabilities of delayed ignition and other probabilities in Level 1 event tree are found selected based on expert judgment for each of the reference fluids and release types (i.e. continuous or instantaneous). These probabilities are constant and independent of the release rate or mass and lack of constructed model. Defining the release type is critical in the consequence of the failure methodology, whereas the calculated consequences differ greatly depending on the type of release, i.e. continuous or instantaneous. The assessment results show that both criteria of defining the type of release, i.e. continuous or instantaneous, do not affect the calculations of flammable consequences when the auto-ignition likely is zero at the storage temperature. While, the difference in the resulted toxic consequence was more than 31 times between the two criteria of defining the type of release. Research limitations/implications: There is a need to revamp this quantitative risk model to minimize the subjectivity in the risk calculation and to address the unique design features of offshore platforms. Originality/value: This case study critically discuss the risk model being widely applied in the O&G industry and demonstrates to the end-users the subjectivity in the risk results. Hence, be vigilant when establishing the risk tolerance/target for the purpose of inspection and maintenance planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Scientific and methodological aspects of ensuring the safety of offshore subsea pipelines according to accident risk criteria are considered. A conceptual approach to assessing the hazard of defects according to risk criteria is formulated by analyzing modern norms and requirements on pipeline design. A probabilistic model for assessing the risk of accidents at offshore subsea pipelines considering the randomness of defects and damage from accidents is developed. The criterial conditions for the permissibility of defects in pipelines are formulated. Two conceptual directions for developing a procedural framework for calculating the permissible defects versus risk criteria are proposed on this basis. The first direction consists in elaborating semi-probabilistic calculation procedures using differentiated margin factors, considering the accident risk level. The second direction consists in solving the problem of the probability of pipeline failure, taking into account the restrictions in the form of a preset risk value. The probability and scale of accidents are linked through a risk matrix. The calculation methodology is developed using a semi-probabilistic concept for the most typical defects in offshore subsea pipelines. The suitability of the pipeline for operation after in-line diagnostics is determined using a three-level assessment of permissible defect sizes. The first level is basic and determines permissible defect sizes according to the strength criteria for pipelines exposed to the main loads, i.e., internal overpressure and external hydrostatic external head. The second level is extended and determines permissible defect sizes according to the strength criteria, taking into account the impact of additional longitudinal and bending loads on pipelines. The third level is special and determines permissible dimensions of cracks and cracklike defects according to the crack resistance characteristics of the pipeline metal. The novelty of the method consists in the justification of the margin factors through the failure probability levels corresponding to a preset class of damage and losses. A scheme for making decisions on the permissibility of defects according to risk criteria has been developed. An example of the assessment of the hazard of defects in offshore subsea pipelines is presented. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The design and operation of premixers for gas turbines must deal with the possibility of relatively rare events causing dangerous autoignition (AI). Rare AI events may occur in the presence of fluctuations of operational parameters, such as temperature and fuel composition, and must be understood and predicted. This work presents a methodology based on incompletely stirred reactor (ISR) and surrogate modeling to increase efficiency and feasibility in premixer design optimization for rare events. For a representative premixer, a space-filling design is used to sample the variability of three influential operational parameters. An ISR is reconstructed and solved in a postprocessing fashion for each sample, leveraging a well-resolved computational fluid dynamics solution of the non-reacting flow inside the premixer. Via detailed chemistry and reduced computational costs, ISR tracks the evolution of AI precursors and temperature conditioned on a mixture fraction. Accurate surrogate models are then trained for selected AI metrics on all ISR samples. The final quantification of the AI probability is achieved by querying the surrogate models via Monte Carlo sampling of the random parameters. The approach is fast and reliable so that user-controllable, independent variables can be optimized to maximize system performance while observing a constraint on the allowable probability of AI. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The paper presents a new approach to the evaluation of human factor (HF) influence on the risk of maritime accidents. This approach is based on a formal human-ship-environment system definition including the relationships between humans, technology, environment, and organization. Social and organizational factors have already been included in the International Maritime Organization regulations; however, the individual factors still need investigation. A combination of psychological studies and technical operations of sea-going ships has given a huge opportunity to use HF assessment in rule-making processes. The main scientific goal of the research presented in the paper was the development of a method to assess the influence of HF on the risk of maneuvering accidents in restricted waters. This method is based on research within the area of technical ship operation and the results of the psychological profile of operators. The proposed model is based on a quantitative HF model developed by an authorized psychologist comprising personality traits, vulnerability to stress, and risk approach. The investigations were carried out with a group of 32 experienced ship masters performing a complex maneuvering task on the Full Mission Ship Handling Simulator. The multidimensional dependencies between variables of the psychological profile and the risk of an accident resulting from maneuvering errors were implemented into the Sugeno fuzzy model. The developed model allows risk assessment to be conducted that depends on the selected personality profile features. These features can be measured using psychological questionnaires, and then the risk of an accident due to maneuvering error can be calculated for a captain or marine pilot in order to improve human resource management. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In decision making under risk, where the consequences of choices vary depending on specific probabilities, a proper interpretation of the presented probabilities is essential. However, because people are not good at evaluating numerical values, such as percentages, efforts have been made to accurately convey presented probabilities using visual aids represented by icon arrays. However, previous studies have suggested that icon arrays produce an overestimation of probabilities under specific conditions. Especially, (a) the arrangement of highlighted icons and (b) the severity of the outcomes represented by highlighted icons can lead to an overestimation of probabilities. By considering the absolute estimation of probabilities indicated by icon arrays and manipulating the aforementioned factors, this study investigated whether these factors could elicit an overestimation of probabilities in an additive manner or whether they have interactive effects. Two studies (total N = 1171) consistently showed that the arrangement of highlighted icons and the outcome severity they indicate induced a perceptual bias in the estimation of the probabilities presented in icon arrays in an additive manner. When the highlighted icons were random and the outcomes they indicate were severe, the probabilities presented by the icon arrays were overestimated. Accordingly, the study not only confirms the robustness of the findings of previous studies but also expand our understanding of the probability overestimation caused by icon arrays. Here, we discuss our findings in terms of the impact of risk-related communication. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Probabilistic information is used increasingly, from medical research to weather forecasting. The relationship between probability and causality requires an acceptable philosophical account. Social work, which contributes to healthy wellbeing, increasingly uses language of probabilistic causal relationships between harms and subsequent limitations to healthy functioning. This paper explores causal understandings of probabilistic knowledge using concepts of the theologian, Thomas Aquinas. Social welfare terminology regarding risk (such as factors that are 'causative of' child abuse) is explored using epistemological concepts from scholastic philosophy. Aquinas' anthropological concepts related to modern 'risk science' and his concepts of rationality, harm and prudence are applied to contemporary social welfare. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The purpose of this research is to answer the question regarding when the specific danger to the life or integrity of people required by article 380 Penal Code. For this, the most recent doctrine and jurisprudential pronouncements are analysed, having to warn that the decisions from the Provincial Courts show that it is debatable, in many cases, to consider as certain the causation of a serious and imminent risk for people as required by the penal type. In this sense, the essential parameters that a specific situation must meet to qualify it as dangerous and the circle of subjects that must be affected are exposed. As a closing clause, a brief reference is made to the subjective type of the crime, characterized by the intent of danger. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risky decision-making (RDM) is when individuals make choices based on the definite cognition for the probabilities of the options. Risk is embodied in the certainty of reward, and the smaller the probability is, the greater the risk will be. As simulated in human behavior paradigms, RDM scenarios in real life are often guided by external cues that inform the likelihood of receiving certain rewards. There are few studies on the neural basis of RDM behavior guided by external cues, which is related to the relative paucity of the animal behavioral paradigms. Here, we established a cue-guided RDM task to detect the behavior of rats making a decision between a small certain reward and a large uncertain reward in a naturalistic manner. The reward of the risk option could be adjusted to observe the change of choice. Our results showed that: (1) rats were able to master the operation of the cue-guided RDM task; (2) many rats were inclined to choose risk rather than the safe option when the reward expectations were equal; (3) rats were able to adjust the decision strategy in time upon a change in risk, suggesting that they have the ability to perceive risk indicated by the external cues. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Life in an increasingly information-rich but highly uncertain world calls for an effective means of communicating uncertainty to a range of audiences. Senders prefer to convey uncertainty using verbal (e.g., likely) rather than numeric (e.g., 75% chance) probabilities, even in consequential domains, such as climate science. However, verbal probabilities can convey something other than uncertainty, and senders may exploit this. For instance, senders can maintain credibility after making erroneous predictions. While verbal probabilities afford ease of expression, they can be easily misunderstood, and the potential for miscommunication is not effectively mitigated by assigning (imprecise) numeric probabilities to words. When making consequential decisions, recipients prefer (precise) numeric probabilities. The (positive and negative) directionality of verbal probabilities enables them to convey more than uncertainty. Probability terms can communicate uncertainty in a face-saving manner and implicitly shape receivers' cognitions and behavior. Verbal probabilities preclude fine-grained uncertainty communication. Assigning numeric probability ranges to words does not eliminate their imprecise and variable meaning, but can have unintended effects on judgment and decision-making. Senders are misplaced in their belief that verbal expressions of uncertainty are especially helpful for those with lower numeracy and in thinking that these individuals cannot benefit from numeric probability information. The benefits of precise numeric expressions of uncertainty, coupled with receivers' preference for numeric information when it really matters, suggests that senders ought to embrace numeric precision over vague words if they wish to communicate uncertainty clearly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this talk we discuss the basic concepts used in axioms of sciences, their meaning explained through the axioms and measurement that follow afterwards. There are situations where meaning comes first, then axioms then measure. And there are situations where measurements come first and meanings - later. Things may look elementary, but they are supposed to build a solid background when make a system to analyze the risk. We illustrate this approach on examples from classic sciences as geometry and algebra, from examples of recent times as for uncertainty and probability and focus our attention on the concept of risk ant its measurements. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The study proposes to consider the concept of complex risk of an airline from the position of a systematic approach and define risk as a threat to the economic security of an airline. The analysis of theoretical and methodological aspects of risk assessment is carried out. One method is proposed for determining and predicting a complex risk as a threat to the economic security of an airline based on an analysis of the probability of events and the impact on the company's activities in order to make effective management decisions to strengthen the economic security of an airline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Summary: Generally, wind energy production is based on the average wind speed without any classification. This article proposes a classification system on the basis of wind speed durations greater than a given threshold value. For this purpose, the wind quality designation (WQD) concept is defined based on the wind potential duration, amount, and intensity on a threshold level. Its classifications are depicted on five risk percentage classes as "excellent," "very good," "good," "fair," and "weak. Apart from the classification, the change of WQD with wind speed threshold provides qualitative and quantitative wind speed energy production assessment. The specific objective of the article is to present theoretical WQD explanations on the basis of the most frequently employed two‐parameter Weibull probability distribution function (PDF). The application is provided for Adiyaman City, Kahta meteorology station wind speed records from the Southeastern province of Turkey. It is noticed that there is no "Weak" category at this station and the most effective quality class is "Excellent" from 14 m/s to almost 27 m/s wind speeds. The average wind speed corresponds to about 62% WQD. Finally, the wind speed potential durations PDF abides by the logarithmic‐normal PDF, whereas amount and intensity accord with the Weibull PDFs. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There have been several recent high-profile space events, notably the conjunctions of the Aeolus and Starlink spacecraft (both maneuverable) and the IRAS and GGSE-4 spacecraft (both dead). Here, we examine the timeline, activities, and risks associated with each of these conjunction events. To accomplish this, we fused observations from the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) to produce a sequence of high-accuracy orbit solutions and used that sequence to generate three-dimensional, dynamic progressions of each conjunction's miss distance, collision probability and its relation to the dilution threshold. Probability of Collision (Pc) is an essential tool for assessing conjunction threats. The Pc Topology tool characterizes the evolution of a conjunction's miss distance and collision probability, both of which are critical inputs to the maneuver avoidance decision-making process and exposing SSA deficiencies. We show the effect of combined hardbody radius (CHBR) on Pc as well as modeling with different shapes. Additionally, the Pc Topology tool reveals the calculation's placement in/out of the dilution region. The European Space Agency commanded the Aeolus spacecraft to perform an emergency maneuver to avoid this high-probability collision hazard. Our results indicate that this maneuver was warranted based upon ESA's decision threshold criteria and the Pc Topology trending analysis. While both collision events fortunately did not occur, we estimated the potential debris fields that these events may have generated had they occurred. Realizing that large debris production might be a factor in maneuver decision making, we then assess the impact of these fragmentation fields upon estimated operator workload and subsequent collision risk. • We examine the timeline, activities, and risks associated with the conjunctions of the Aeolus and Starlink spacecraft (both maneuverable) and the IRAS and GGSE-4 spacecraft (both dead). • We also introduce an improved method to compute collision probability. • We fused observations from the Space Surveillance Network (SSN) to produce a sequence of high-accuracy orbit solutions and used that sequence to generate three-dimensional, dynamic progressions of each conjunction's miss distance, collision probability and its relation to the dilution threshold using the Probability of Collision (Pc) Topology tool for assessing conjunction threats. • While both collision events fortunately did not occur, we estimated the potential debris fields that these events may have generated had they occurred. We then assessed the impact of these fragmentation fields upon estimated operator workload and subsequent collision risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Contextualization: The locality of Suba, specifically the Tibabuyes Zonal Planning Unit (UPZ), corresponds to a sector of the city of Bogotá which, due to its unbalanced expansion process, has led people to settle illegally on Protected Areas such as the Juan Amarillo Wetland, the Conejera Wetland, and the Bogotá River Special Management Zone, which belong to the Main Ecological Structure and are exposed to natural phenomena such afiooding. Knowledge Gap: the phenomenon of informal occupation has become a pattern that does not favor the sustainability of the city of Bogotá and affects the quality of life, poverty and a wide social problem that affects the inhabitants and that can generate important land occupation consequences for the country and significantly increase risk. Purpose: to design a conceptual proposal to reduce the rislooding in UPZ Tibabuyes. Methodology: a methodology focused on Participatory Action (PAR) was used, within which three research phases were established. where perception analyzes were carried out in the area according to the needs established by the water round, in which the threat could be categorized according to the fiood scenarios, for this the evaluation parameters were determined (high, when the sheet of water is> 1.0 m and its speed is greater than 2.0 m / s), and the category (average, when the sheet of water is> 0.5 <1.0 m and its speed is between 1.5 to 2.0 m / s). Results and conclusions: The action plan consisting of 19 strategies was determined, out of which 10 correspond to implemented strategies in the event of a high fiood risk scenario, and the 9 complementary strategies should be used in the event of a medium risk scenario. fiood. In both, the affected population, the requirements and technical activities to be developed are related, together with an estimated budget and its possible sources of fiinancing. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

False findings are an inevitable consequence of statistical testing. In this article, I use Bayes' theorem to estimate the false positive and false negative risks for randomised controlled trials related to our speciality. For small trials in peri-operative medicine, the false positive risk appears to be at least 50%. For trials reporting weakly significant p values, the risk is even higher. By contrast, large, multicentre trials in critical care appear to have a high false negative risk. These findings suggest much of the evidence that underpins our clinical practice is likely to be wrong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background: Acute heart failure (AHF) is a complex syndrome associated with high morbidity and mortality. This study aimed to derive a simple risk score with which to identify AHF patients at high risk for an all-cause death event during the first year after hospital discharge.Methods: Three hundred AHF patients from the Heart Failure registry were included in the analysis. Cox regression with a forward-conditional algorithm and bootstrapping procedure was used to build the prognostic score, while c-statistic was used to assess the prognostic performance of the score.Results: Seven variables were independently associated with an all-cause mortality event during the 1-year follow-up (FU): estimated glomerular filtration rate of 40-60; estimated glomerular filtration rate <40 mL/min/1.73 m2; uric acid >450 μmol/L; left-ventricular ejection fraction <45%; sodium <136 mmol/L; systolic blood pressure <115 mmHg; and a positive history of previous heart failure-related decompensation event(s). The score derived from significant variables enabled classification of patients into three risk categories: low (0-2 points), intermediate (3 points), and high (4-6 points). Observed all-cause mortality rates during the 1-year FU were 6.1%, 30.5%, and 80.9% across the three risk categories, respectively. The score demonstrated a high level of discrimination for an all-cause death event in the derivation cohort with the c-statistic value of 0.907 (95% CI, 0.867-0.939; p < 0.0001) and adequate calibration.Conclusions: The S2PLiT-UG score is a simple tool with potential for facilitating risk stratification and therapeutic decision-making during the first year after hospitalisation for an AHF event. Future external validation studies are required to confirm its prognostic performance. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, the probability of occurrence of fumonisins in corn in the states of greatest production in Brazil was determined. The data were analyzed through quantitative risk analysis using the Monte Carlo simulation. The results indicated that there is a strong correlation between fumonisins contamination levels and the geographical region due to the influence of climatic characteristics, with temperature having the main influence. The Southern states presented higher risks of occurrence and concentration levels of fumonisins in corn due to the temperate climate with lower average temperature and higher relative humidity and precipitation indices. Cultivation in the best season indicates a significant reduction in the production of fumonisins when this period was evaluated, with average concentration levels up to 42% lower. The generated data are important for regulatory agencies and the agricultural sector, which needs to be aware that the chance of success in grain production depends on efficient planning of the growing season, mainly concerning the climatic conditions to which it is subject to minimize the risks. • Risk of fumonisins in corn was assessed using quantitative risk assessment; • Temperature plays a critical role in fumonisin incidence and level in corn; • Reduction in fumonisin of up to 42% when cultivation at the best time was assessed; • Strong correlation between fumonisins levels and the geographical region was found; • Low temperatures and high humidity increased the probability of fumonisin in corn. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Risk methods are powerful and versatile, but they have limitations and subtle traps. The paper explores the nature of risk. There are three main difficulties. First, there is a problem with quality and completeness of information. Lack of precise information means that likelihood and consequences have to be estimated, so the information is vulnerable to biases: some are explored. Secondly, there is a serious problem of completeness in risk models, where omissions can lead to serious consequences. Unexpected events, sometimes called 'black swans', abound. Thirdly, the conjunction of very small probabilities and major consequences can lead to unreliable and dubious results. Applications areas considered are structural engineering, project management and risk management generally. There are situations where a resilience approach is preferable to risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A probabilistic model predicts hip fracture probability for postflight male astronauts during lateral fall scenarios from various heights. A biomechanical representation of the hip provides impact load. Correlations relate spaceflight bone mineral density (BMD) loss and postflight BMD recovery to bone strength (BS). Translations convert fracture risk index (FRI), the ratio of applied load (AL) to BS, to fracture probability. Parameter distributions capture uncertainty and Monte Carlo simulations provide probability outcomes. The fracture probability for a 1 m fall 0 days postflight is 15% greater than preflight and remains 6% greater than pre-flight at 365 days postflight. Probability quantification provides insight into how spaceflight induced BMD loss affects fracture probability. A bone loss rate reflecting improved exercise countermeasures and dietary intake further reduces the postflight fracture probability to 6% greater than preflight at 0 days postflight and 2% greater at 365 days postflight. Quantification informs assessments of countermeasure effectiveness. When preflight BMD is one standard deviation below mean astronaut preflight BMD, fracture probability at 0 days postflight is 34% greater than the preflight fracture probability calculated with mean BMD and 28% greater at 365 days postflight. Quantification aids review of astronaut BMD fitness for duty standards. Increases in postflight fracture probability are associated with an estimated 18% reduction in postflight BS. Therefore, a 0.82 deconditioning coefficient modifies force application limits for crew vehicles. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Abstract This study aimed to develop a novel framework for risk assessment of nitrate groundwater contamination by integrating chemical and statistical analysis for an arid region. A standard method was applied for assessing the vulnerability of groundwater to nitrate pollution in Lenjanat plain, Iran. Nitrate concentration were collected from 102 wells of the plain and used to provide pollution occurrence and probability maps. Three machine learning models including boosted regression trees (BRT), multivariate discriminant analysis (MDA), and support vector machine (SVM) were used for the probability of groundwater pollution occurrence. Afterwards, an ensemble modeling approach was applied for production of the groundwater pollution occurrence probability map. Validation of the models was carried out using area under the receiver operating characteristic curve method (AUC); values above 80% were selected to contribute in ensembling process. Results indicated that accuracy for the three models ranged from 0.81 to 0.87, therefore all models were considered for ensemble modeling process. The resultant groundwater pollution risk (produced by vulnerability, pollution, and probability maps) indicated that the central regions of the plain have high and very high risk of nitrate pollution further confirmed by the exiting landuse map. The findings may provide very helpful information in decision making for groundwater pollution risk management especially in semi-arid regions. Graphical abstract Unlabelled Image Highlights • Novel risk assessment framework for nitrate groundwater contamination in arid regions. • Machine learning (ML) predicting vulnerability, pollution, and occurrence probability. • ML allows quick regional evaluation of risk posed by nitrate in groundwater. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

At least since Leonard Savage's extension of von Neumann and Morgenstern's expected utility, rational choice theory has been interpreted as a theory prescribing what individuals should do in any decision context, ranging from certainty to risk and uncertainty. After decades this received view, usually termed Bayesian, has been criticized for its normative content. This paper compares the current critique of the notion of Bayesian rationality, proposed by Itzhak Gilboa, with Daniel Ellsberg's classic critique of Savage's understanding of rationality. The paper argues that Ellsberg's classic analysis of Savage's theory totally anticipated today's criticism. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Highlights • This paper proposes the means to model phenomena exhibiting a possibly skewed and multimodal response. • The approach is based on calculating variables having a finite range and fixed values for the first four moments. • This paper provides the means to estimate the above variables and to quantify the corresponding sampling error. • The versatility of the method is illustrated by modeling the dynamics of an aeroelastic structure subject to flutter. Abstract This paper proposes a family of random variables for uncertainty modeling. The variables of interest have a bounded support set, and prescribed values for the first four moments. We present the feasibility conditions for the existence of any of such variables, and propose a class of variables that conforms to such constraints. This class is called staircase because the density of its members is a piecewise constant function. Convex optimization is used to calculate their distributions according to several optimality criteria, including maximal entropy and maximal log-likelihood. The flexibility and efficiency of staircases enable modeling phenomena having a possibly skewed and/or multimodal response at a low computational cost. Furthermore, we provide a means to account for the uncertainty in the distribution caused by estimating staircases from data. These ideas are illustrated by generating empirical staircase predictor models. We consider the case in which the predictor matches the sample moments exactly (a setting applicable to large datasets), as well as the case in which the predictor accounts for the sampling error in such moments (a setting applicable to sparse datasets). A predictor model for the dynamics of an aeroelastic airfoil subject to flutter instability is used as an example. The resulting predictor not only describes the system's response accurately, but also enables carrying out a risk analysis for safe flight. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

A great deal of current research on moral judgments centers on moral dilemmas concerning tradeoffs between one and five lives. Whether one considers killing one innocent person to save five others to be morally required or impermissible has been taken to determine whether one is appealing to consequentialist or non-consequentialist reasoning. But this focus on tradeoffs between one and five may obscure more nuanced commitments involved in moral decision-making that are revealed when the numbers and ratio of lives to be traded off are varied, and when the probabilities of each outcome occurring are less than certain. Four studies examine participants' reactions to scenarios that diverge in these ways from the standard ones. Study 1 examines the extent to which people are sensitive to the ratio of lives saved to lives ended by a particular action. Study 2 verifies that the ratio rather than the difference between the two values is operative. Study 3 examines whether participants treat probabilistic harm to some as equivalent to certainly harming fewer, holding expected ratio constant. Study 4 explores an analogous issue regarding the sensitivity of probabilistic saving. Participants are remarkably sensitive to expected ratio for probabilistic harms while deviating from expected value for probabilistic saving. Collectively, the studies provide evidence that people's moral judgments are consistent with the principle of threshold deontology. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Transportation of flammable liquefied gas in tunnels presents a significant risk of an accidental loss of containment leading to an explosion with major consequences. Possible scenarios include a BLEVE, a non-reactive gas expansion explosion and a reactive gas explosion. Quantification of the risk and consequences associated with such events is central in the design of tunnels and routing of dangerous goods. TNO previously developed a Quantitative Risk Analysis (QRA) method, which combines a probability assessment with state-of-the-art explosion effect and consequence models. The current article extends this model to combine the dispersion of a flammable cloud with its probability of ignition and the resulting physical effects such as overpressure. The model assumes an increasing probability of ignition with both the number and the duration of vehicles present within the flammable cloud. Various case studies are considered to illustrate the effect of different ignition probability parameters. These cases deal with instantaneous and continuous LPG releases with varying release rates including the effect of ventilation. They clearly show the capability to quantify the ignition probabilities and gas explosion load. The combination of the gas dispersion, gas explosion and ignition probability models are needed to derive design loads for tunnels, to perform tunnel risk assessments, and to develop safety measures. These models form the backbone for quantitative risk assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In this study, we explore how people integrate risks of assets in a simulated financial market into a judgment of the conjunctive risk that all assets decrease in value, both when assets are independent and when there is a systematic risk present affecting all assets. Simulations indicate that while mental calculation according to naïve application of probability theory is best when the assets are independent, additive or exemplar-based algorithms perform better when systematic risk is high. Considering that people tend to intuitively approach compound probability tasks using additive heuristics, we expected the participants to find it easiest to master tasks with high systematic risk - the most complex tasks from the standpoint of probability theory - while they should shift to probability theory or exemplar memory with independence between the assets. The results from 3 experiments confirm that participants shift between strategies depending on the task, starting off with the default of additive integration. In contrast to results in similar multiple cue judgment tasks, there is little evidence for use of exemplar memory. The additive heuristics also appear to be surprisingly context-sensitive, with limited generalization across formally very similar tasks. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Background. The authors assessed whether dentists' diagnostic inferences differ when test accuracy information is communicated using natural frequencies versus conditional probabilities. Methods. A parallel, randomized controlled trial with dentists was carried out in Rio de Janeiro, Brazil. The dentists received a question on the probability of a patient having interproximal caries, given a positive bite-wing radiograph. This question was asked using information that was formulated into either natural frequencies or conditional probabilities. Results. Only 14 (13.9%) of the dentists gave the correct answer; 13 in the natural frequencies group, and 1 in the conditional probabilities group (P < .001). There were 7 nearly correct answers in the natural frequencies group and none in the conditional probabilities group (P ¼ .005). Conclusions. Representing diagnostic test accuracy in natural frequencies substantially helped dentists make diagnostic inferences. Nearly twice as many dentists overestimated the presence of interproximal caries when given information in conditional probabilities. Practical Implications. Our study findings show information shared using natural frequencies may be more accurately interpreted by dentists than that based on conditional probabilities. Patients will probably receive different standards of care depending on the format in which dentists receive diagnostic test accuracy information. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In the last five years, many of the construction projects faced a lot of new variables which stopped or delayed in the commission some of these projects, Most of them its cost had been raised up or implemented with low quality and low performance not as it was planned. The new variables which faced the construction projects came as result of new changes on the international level which effected directly on our local level, The political term made new regulation and policies effected on the construction industry, Social term created negative behavior between the partnerships in the construction industry, Economic term made unexpected results on the construction projects and the investment projects on general that because the increasing in the building materials cost and the labor cost rates which led to raise up the total budget of this projects not as it was planned. The research aims to achieve the risk analysis job plan which is leading improve the performance of public construction projects with that new variable in the last five years through presenting a risk analysis job plan (risk planning, risk identification, qualitative analysis, quantitative analysis, risk treatment and risk monitoring and control) of a public construction project on the local level as a case study. The research will present the effect of the risk analysis on the public construction project's performance to be able to face the uncertainties events through the implementation stage. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

We take a critical look at the meaning behind the number 87% given to 25-year-old Sophie, a BRCA1 and BRCA2 carrier. Sophie has been told she has an 87% chance of getting breast cancer. She is contemplating a preventive double mastectomy after genetic counseling and her physician's advice. Some 92% of British general practitioners are in favor of prophylactic mastectomy as a treatment option for women similar to Sophie. The treatment decision results, to a very large extent, from the size of the number (87%) alone. The central argument of this study is that physicians, their patients, and the public need a much better understanding on what is meant by probability estimates of 0.87. The figure on its own does not tell us much, and we need to be very cautious in its interpretation. It is important to know that the very same genetic and statistical models, and observed data, resulting in a verdict of an 87% lifetime chance of getting breast cancer, based on BRCA1, BRCA2, and familial information, simultaneously show Sophie to have a greater than 99% chance of surviving beyond the next 5 years cancer free. If she succeeds-the chances are overwhelmingly in her favor-then, given that fact, her chances of surviving a further 5 years are once again greater than 98%. Her chances of not dying due to breast cancer over the next 20 years are greater than 97%, a percentage that changes little if instead of 20 we write the number 30. In a word, although the diagnosis of a faulty BRAC gene may be a disappointment, there is no immediate peril and no need for undue alarm. Sophie, and her primary care providers, can carefully consider her options without feeling that they are under any kind of acute pressure. Whatever the threat, it is not an imminent one. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Precautionary Principles are often said to be appropriate for decision-making in contexts of uncertainty such as climate policy. Contexts of uncertainty are contrasted to contexts of risk depending on whether we have probabilities or not. Against this view, I argue that the risk-uncertainty distinction is practically irrelevant. I start by noting that the history of the distinction between risk and uncertainty is more varied than is sometimes assumed. In order to examine the distinction, I unpack the idea of having probabilities, in particular by distinguishing three interpretations of probability: objective, epistemic, and subjective probability. I then claim that if we are concerned with whether we have probabilities at all-regardless of how low their epistemic credentials are-then we almost always have probabilities for policy-making. The reason is that subjective and epistemic probability are the relevant interpretations of probability and we almost always have subjective and epistemic probabilities. In contrast, if we are only concerned with probabilities that have sufficiently high epistemic credentials, then we obviously do not always have probabilities. Climate policy, for example, would then be a case of decision-making under uncertainty. But, so I argue, we should not dismiss probabilities with low epistemic credentials. Rather, when they are the best available probabilities our decision principles should make use of them. And, since they are almost always available, the risk-uncertainty distinction remains irrelevant. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Any attempt to explicitly define the property market involves an interdisciplinary approach. Commonly applied notions referring to the genesis of risk in the area of medicine, humanities and, in particular, social and other sciences, have a significant impact on the strictly technical definition. The juxtaposition of the established definitions concerning the phenomenon of risk is an attempt to refer their types and risk factors to the extensive subject area of risk concerning the property market itself. In the future, this may contribute to the development of new risk analysis methods or methods of determining its probability and, therefore, levelling the effect of uncertainty in developing real estate management processes. The aim of the paper is to carry out a review of literature for a deeper analysis of this issue. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Reported in this paper is a novel application of statistical analysis of structural fire hazards that were found in heritage housing stock in a metropolitan area. The structural fire hazards in terms of non-compliances to the building regulations are digitised and then subjected to statistical analysis to obtain estimates of probabilities of occurrence under various conditions. The concepts of Hamming distance, Jaccard distance, virtual distance and pairwise Phi correlation coefficients are employed in the analysis to estimate the association between the fire hazards. Estimates of the probability distribution over the number of joint occurrence of hazards and pairwise joint probabilities are also obtained. In addition the 3-tuple and 4-tuple joint probabilities are analysed. Finally, logistic regression models are established to correlate each fire hazard with the others. The results show that not only the probability of occurrence of structural fire hazards is high, but probability of multiple occurrence is also significant. There are indications that some structural fire hazards are correlated. The findings of this study may assist certifying authorities, building surveyors, fire safety engineers and fire services in identifying fire hazards in heritage buildings and developing alleviating and effective strategies or solutions to protect life safety of building occupants as well as the cultural heritage values of the relevant building stock. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Winter injury is one of the main meteorological disasters that affect apple’s growing distribution and quality. Existing research mainly studies the injuries caused by extremely low temperatures during deep dormancy of apples, mostly using the mean temperature of the coldest month, the frequency of extreme minimum temperatures as indicators to assess the risk and divide the boundaries of apple’s distribution. However, cold resistance of fruit trees is different during different dormant phases, and is closely related with the cold- resistance exercises in fall. The probabilistic forecasting models of early winter injury and extreme winter cold injury are established with the binary Logistic regression, on basis of the data of 2 084 meteorological stations and the winter injuries happened during 1981- 2010. The space is divided into five risk’s degrees as very low, low, moderate, high and very high. The classification standard of the probability of winter injury was referred from the classification criteria in the IPCC report. The results show that: the probabilistic forecasting models of early winter injury and extreme winter cold injury passed the Hosmer-Losmer test, and the prediction accuracies of independent samples reached 83.6% and 91.4% respectively. Early winter injury depends mainly on time of the first frost day and the time interval between the first frost day and the first day that the lowest temperature is lower than - 15 ℃ . The extreme winter cold injury is affected by the average temperature of the coldest month and the cold accumulated temperature when the daily minimum temperature is lower than - 20 ℃ . The freezing injury caused by short- term extreme low temperature is of small occurrence probability and limited influence scope. The extreme low-temperature injury in winter is mainly caused by continuous intimidation of strong and low temperature. Early winter injury is the main freezing injury in apple-producing regions of China, which happens in most apple-producing regions except the ancient Yellow River region and Yunnan producing region. But extreme winter cold injuries mainly happen in high latitude or high altitude regions, including the northern Bohai Gulf, the northwest of the Loess Plateau and Northern Xinjiang. High risk areas of early winter injury and extreme winter cold injury are almost equal. Gansu is the province that has the largest area of risks with moderate degree and above, followed by Liaoning, Hebei and Shanxi. On the other hand, there are low risks of winter injury, especially for extreme winter cold injury, in Shaanxi and Shandong where there are the largest planting areas of apple. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Assessment of dynamic stability in a modern power system (PS) is becoming a stringent requirement both in operational planning and in on-line operation, due to the increasingly complex dynamics of a PS. Further, growing uncertainties in forecast state and in the response to disturbances suggests the adoption of risk-based approaches in Dynamic Security Assessment (DSA). The present paper describes a probabilistic risk-based DSA, which provides instability risk indicators by combining an innovative probabilistic hazard/vulnerability analysis with the assessment of contingency impacts via time domain simulation. The tool implementing the method can be applied to both current and forecast PS states, the latter characterized in terms of renewable and load forecast uncertainties, providing valuable results for operation and operational planning contexts. Some results from a real PS model are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Flooding hazard evaluation is the basis of flooding risk assessment which has significances to natural environment, human life and social economy. This study develops a spatial framework integrating naïve Bayes (NB) and geographic information system (GIS) to assess flooding hazard at regional scale. The methodology was demonstrated in the Bowen Basin in Australia as a case study. The inputs into the framework are five indices: elevation, slope, soil water retention, drainage proximity and density. They were derived from spatial data processed in ArcGIS. NB as a simplified and efficient type of Bayesian methods was used, with the assistance of remotely sensed flood inundation extent in the sampling process, to infer flooding probability on a cell-by-cell basis over the study area. A likelihood-based flooding hazard map was output from the GIS-based framework. The results reveal elevation and slope have more significant impacts on evaluation than other input indices. Area of high likelihood of flooding hazard is mainly located in the west and the southwest where there is a high water channel density, and along the water channels in the east of the study area. High likelihood of flooding hazard covers 45 % of the total area, medium likelihood accounts for about 12 %, low and very low likelihood represents 19 and 24 %, respectively. The results provide baseline information to identify and assess flooding hazard when making adaptation strategies and implementing mitigation measures in future. The framework and methodology developed in the study offer an integrated approach in evaluation of flooding hazard with spatial distributions and indicative uncertainties. It can also be applied to other hazard assessments. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Structural systems are under deterioration due to ageing, mechanical stressors, and harsh environment, among other threats. Corrosion and fatigue can cause gradual structural deterioration. Moreover, natural and man-made hazards may lead to a sudden drop in the structural performance. Inspection and maintenance actions are performed to monitor the structural safety and maintain the performance over certain thresholds. However, these actions must be effectively planned throughout the life-cycle of a system to ensure the optimum budget allocation and maximum possible service life without adverse effects on the structural system safety. Life-cycle engineering provides rational means to optimise life-cycle aspects, starting from the initial design and construction to dismantling and replacing the system at the end of its service life. This paper presents a brief overview of the recent research achievements in the field of life-cycle engineering for civil and marine structural systems and indicates future directions in this research field. Several aspects of life-cycle engineering are presented, including the performance prediction under uncertainty and optimisation of life-cycle cost and intervention activities, as well as the role of structural health monitoring and non-destructive testing techniques in supporting the life-cycle management decisions. Risk, resilience, sustainability, and their integration into the life-cycle management are also discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM PUBLISHER]

With the ascent of modern epidemiology in the Twentieth Century came a new standard model of prediction in public health and clinical medicine. In this article, we describe the structure of the model. The standard model uses epidemiological measures—most commonly, risk measures—to predict outcomes (prognosis) and effect sizes (treatment) in a patient population that can then be transformed into probabilities for individual patients. In the first step, a risk measure in a study population is generalized or extrapolated to a target population. In the second step, the risk measure is particularized or transformed to yield probabilistic information relevant to a patient from the target population. Hence, we call the approach the Risk Generalization–Particularization (Risk GP) Model. There are serious problems at both stages, especially with the extent to which the required assumptions will hold and the extent to which we have evidence for the assumptions. Given that there are other models of prediction that use different assumptions, we should not inflexibly commit ourselves to one standard model. Instead, model pluralism should be standard in medical prediction. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

In practice, monthly temperature records play a major role calculating the heating and cooling degree-days of the air conditioner management in buildings. Classically, heating and cooling degree calculations are based on the comparison of outdoor temperature measurements with a standard level called the base temperature. Truncating the temperature series at a constant base temperature causes heating (deficits) and cooling (surpluses) degrees. Since outdoor temperature records are of random character, future predictions with probabilistic and statistical methods are convenient means for calculations. All previous methodologies in the literature are based on crisp logic with simple mathematical calculations. This paper proposes a new methodological approach by converting the actual temperature record probability distribution function (PDF) into a probabilistic standardized degree indicator (SDI) in normal (Gaussian) PDF form with zero mean and unit standard deviation. Furthermore, as a new evaluation methodology fuzzy logic inference calculations are provided. SDI is divided into seven classes, three for cooling, heating, and a single class for uncooled-unheated states. Heating and cooling degree changes according to SDI values are presented with crisp and fuzzy sets. The application of the methodology is made for Kadıköy urban area on the Asian side of Istanbul, Turkey. In the case of fuzzy set SDI air conditioned operation, it has been determined that there is cooling energy saving of approximately 25% compared to the crisp set. The same is true for the heating degree-day side. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This article presents results from a study on decision-making towards eventual participation to gambling activities by grade 4 students. For this study, six learning situations were proposed in a fourth grade classroom. The researcher, who was also the teacher, proposed some extra activities in order to define gambling. Students learned about probability and developed, at the same time, the ability to think critically about gambling. She then proposed three fictional situations of gambling to the students, and asked them if and why they would (or would not) participate in the situation. By studying the arguments that students provided, she explored how students’ probabilistic reasoning and critical thinking can influence their decision making towards these activities. This study therefore focuses on mathematical mobilization of resources in a citizenship approach. Results suggested that mathematical, sociocultural, and personal contexts were the determinants of which perspective the students were situated in. The results obtained show that the students’ arguments were based on a variety of aspects: the affectivity towards a game situation, the ethical aspects of the proposed activity, the affective conceptions towards the random effect, or finally the mathematical aspects of the situation. Students were also able to talk about the risks they faced when participating in those gambling activities. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This paper proposes a new definition of exposure to the risk of road accident as any event, limited in space and time, representing a potential for an accident to occur by bringing road users close to each other in time or space of by requiring a road user to take action to avoid leaving the roadway. A typology of events representing a potential for an accident is proposed. Each event can be interpreted as a trial as defined in probability theory. Risk is the proportion of events that result in an accident. Defining exposure as events demanding the attention of road users implies that road users will learn from repeated exposure to these events, which in turn implies that there will normally be a negative relationship between exposure and risk. Four hypotheses regarding the relationship between exposure and risk are proposed. Preliminary tests support these hypotheses. Advantages and disadvantages of defining exposure as specific events are discussed. It is argued that developments in vehicle technology are likely to make events both observable and countable, thus ensuring that exposure is an operational concept. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

This essay explains the notion of luck in terms of risk. It starts by distinguishing two senses of risk, the risk that an event has of occurring and the risk at which an agent is with respect to an event. It cashes out the former in modal terms (rather than probabilistic) and the latter in terms of lack of control. It then argues that the presence or absence of event-relative risk marks a distinction between two types of luck or fortune commonly overlooked in ordinary usage of the terms 'luck' and 'fortune.' After offering a detailed account of the notion of control, the essay advances a new version of the so-called lack of control account of luck: lucky events are events with respect to which one is at risk and hence events over which one lacks control in the specified way. Finally, it argues that its account steers clear of counterexamples to the lack of control account of luck. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

There is widespread interest in the risk of being diagnosed with cancer. Internationally, especially in developed countries, governments collect and use data on the incidence of cancer for strategic planning to ensure that the nation has the resources that will be required to deal with the disease. Incidence data can also be used to assess the effectiveness of public health campaigns. However, there are several measures for quantifying the incidence of cancer. This paper examines one of them, namely the cumulative incidence rate. We present a review of the method for estimating the cumulative incidence rate of cancer in a population, and for comparing these rates in two populations. We explore the connection between the cumulative incidence rate and the cumulative risk of being diagnosed with cancer by a certain age, with details of the mathematical ideas that underpin these concepts. This expository paper has been written to be useful to researchers and policy makers who have an interest in the incidence of cancer, at a local or regional level, and who wish to understand the details associated with cumulative incidence rate and cumulative risk. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Prior research links greater activation of posterior medial frontal cortex (pMFC) and anterior insula (AI) with decreasing outcome predictability during decision making, as measured by decreasing probability for the more likely outcome out of two or increasing outcome variance. In addition to predictability, much work indicates that the magnitude or ‘stakes’ of the outcome is also important. Despite the interest in the neural correlates of these decision variables, it is unknown whether pMFC and AI are differentially sensitive to predictability when magnitude is varied. This study examined brain activity during decision making in relation to decreasing outcome predictability for low as compared with high magnitude decisions. For low magnitude decisions, reduced predictability of the outcome was associated with greater activity in pMFC and bilateral AI, replicating prior studies. In contrast, there was no relationship between predictability and brain activity for high magnitude decisions, which tended to elicit greater pMFC and AI activity than low magnitude decisions for more predictable outcomes. These data indicate that the relationship between outcome predictability and pMFC and AI activity during decision making depends on magnitude, and suggest that these regions may be responding to the motivational salience of the decision rather than predictability information per se. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

• Quantitative models can elucidate the variables that determine behavior. • Several models describe declines in reward value as probability of receipt decreases. • A hyperboloid model cannot account for effects of amount on probability discounting. • A power model described the data well. • A power model suggests the value function of uncertain rewards depends on amount. We evaluated two quantitative models that attempt to account for the effects of amount on probability discounting. Sixty-four undergraduate psychology students completed four probability discounting tasks that differed in the amount of the probabilistic outcome ($20, $3,000, $50,000, and $500,000). In an amount-independent hyperboloid model, the exponent (s) systematically increased with reward amount. These systematic changes were not explained by the model. Myerson et al. (2011) reasoned that s increases as a power function of the amount of the probabilistic reward. We found support for the amount-dependent hyperboloid model at the aggregate and individual levels of analysis. The results replicate and extend previous research and suggest that the value function of a probabilistic outcome is weighted by, or depends on, its amount. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Psychologists and philosophers who pose moral dilemmas to understand moral judgment typically specify outcomes as certain to occur in them. This contrasts with real-life moral decision-making, which is almost always infused with probabilities (e.g., the probability of a given outcome if an action is or is not taken). Seven studies examine sensitivity to the size and location of shifts in probabilities of outcomes that would result from action in moral dilemmas. We find that moral judgments differ between actions that result in an equal increase in probability of harm (equal size), but have different end-states (e.g., an increase in harm probability from 25% to 50% or from 50% to 75%). This deviation from expected value is robust under separate evaluation, and increases when the comparison between shifts is made explicit under simultaneous evaluation. Consistent with the centrality of perceived harm in some models of moral judgment, perceived harm partially mediates sensitivity to location of harm probability shift. Unlike for shifts in harm probabilities, participants are insensitive to the location of shifts in probability of beneficial outcomes. They are also insensitive to the location of shifts in probability of analogous monetary losses and gains, suggesting an asymmetry between harm and benefit in moral reasoning, as well as an asymmetry between moral and monetary decision-making more broadly. Implications for normative philosophical theory and moral psychological theory, as well as practical applications, are discussed. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]