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Are most randomised trials in anaesthesia and critical care wrong? An analysis using Bayes' theorem.
- Source :
-
Anaesthesia . Oct2020, Vol. 75 Issue 10, p1386-1393. 8p. - Publication Year :
- 2020
-
Abstract
- False findings are an inevitable consequence of statistical testing. In this article, I use Bayes' theorem to estimate the false positive and false negative risks for randomised controlled trials related to our speciality. For small trials in peri-operative medicine, the false positive risk appears to be at least 50%. For trials reporting weakly significant p values, the risk is even higher. By contrast, large, multicentre trials in critical care appear to have a high false negative risk. These findings suggest much of the evidence that underpins our clinical practice is likely to be wrong. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
Details
- Language :
- English
- ISSN :
- 00032409
- Volume :
- 75
- Issue :
- 10
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Anaesthesia
- Publication Type :
- Academic Journal
- Accession number :
- 145718226
- Full Text :
- https://doi.org/10.1111/anae.15029