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The authoritarian succession literature indicates that non-democratic regimes install rules and institutions that supposedly ensure a smooth transition from ruler to a chosen successor. However, this scholarship cannot explain why some authoritarian successions happen as planned while others end in surprising violence. This article unpacks the puzzle of the transition of power from Nursultan Nazarbayev (1991–2019) to Kassym-Jomart Tokayev (2019–present) in autocratic Kazakhstan. Based on in-depth interviews with more than 15 informants and the analysis of media and secondary sources, we explore why and how the planned succession in Kazakhstan resulted in the bloodshed known as the 2022 Bloody January (Qandy Qantar). We demonstrate that two factors derailed the succession plan: the configuration of authoritarian rules and the presence of political ambitions of Tokayev. Our main argument is that the Nazarbayev succession plan led to elite disunity, escalating the political conflict into the violent 2022 Bloody January. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

The Kerey is one of the prominent Kazakh tribes and has long been a subject of ethnographic scrutiny, with a lack of consensus on its origin and traditional genealogy. Their historical significance, intertwined with the emergence of the empire established by Genghis Khan, necessitates a comprehensive understanding of their genetic history. This study focuses on unraveling the genetic heritage of the Kerey tribe. We conducted a comprehensive analysis of Y-chromosome data from genetic genealogy as citizen science and genetic screening of 23 Y-STRs and 37 Y-SNPs on 207 males from the Kerey tribe within academic science. Our results reveal two prevalent phylogenetic lineages within the C2a1a3a-F3796 haplogroup, also known as the C2*-Star Cluster (C2*-ST), which is one of the founding paternal lineages of the ancient Niru'un clan of the Mongols: C2-FT411734 and C2-FT224144, corresponding to the Abak and Ashamaily clans. While indicating a common male ancestry for them, our findings challenge the notion that they are full siblings. Additionally, genetic diversity analysis of the Y-chromosomes in the Kerey tribe and Kazakhs confirms their kinship with the Uissun tribe but refutes the claim of the Abak clan's progenitor originating from this tribe. Furthermore, genetic evidence fails to support popular historical and ethnographic hypotheses regarding the Kerey tribe's kinship with the Uak, Sirgeli, Adai, Törtkara, Karakerey, and Kereyit Kazakh tribes. The absence of a genetic paternal connection with the Kereyt tribe raises doubts about the genealogical link between the Kerey tribe and the stepfather of Genghis Khan. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

High-coverage whole-genome sequence studies have so far focused on a limited number of geographically restricted populations, or been targeted at specific diseases, such as cancer. Nevertheless, the availability of high-resolution genomic data has led to the development of new methodologies for inferring population history and refuelled the debate on the mutation rate in humans. Here we present the Estonian Biocentre Human Genome Diversity Panel (EGDP), a dataset of 483 high-coverage human genomes from 148 populations worldwide, including 379 new genomes from 125 populations, which we group into diversity and selection sets. We analyse this dataset to refine estimates of continent-wide patterns of heterozygosity, long- and short-distance gene flow, archaic admixture, and changes in effective population size through time as well as for signals of positive or balancing selection. We find a genetic signature in present-day Papuans that suggests that at least 2% of their genome originates from an early and largely extinct expansion of anatomically modern humans (AMHs) out of Africa. Together with evidence from the western Asian fossil record, and admixture between AMHs and Neanderthals predating the main Eurasian expansion, our results contribute to the mounting evidence for the presence of AMHs out of Africa earlier than 75,000 years ago.

It is commonly thought that human genetic diversity in non-African populations was shaped primarily by an out-of-Africa dispersal 50-100 thousand yr ago (kya). Here, we present a study of 456 geographically diverse high-coverage Y chromosome sequences, including 299 newly reported samples. Applying ancient DNA calibration, we date the Y-chromosomal most recent common ancestor (MRCA) in Africa at 254 (95% CI 192-307) kya and detect a cluster of major non-African founder haplogroups in a narrow time interval at 47-52 kya, consistent with a rapid initial colonization model of Eurasia and Oceania after the out-of-Africa bottleneck. In contrast to demographic reconstructions based on mtDNA, we infer a second strong bottleneck in Y-chromosome lineages dating to the last 10 ky. We hypothesize that this bottleneck is caused by cultural changes affecting variance of reproductive success among males.

Academia, in much of the world, has long been disproportionately populated by men. This pattern, at least in the social sciences, may be changing. We explore the shifting gender gap in political science in Kazakhstan, and then set out to explore potential determinants of the changes as well as the resulting employment patterns. We use time-series data to demonstrate that a rising GDP, shifting fertility rates, occupational prestige and a growing population are related to the increase in the number of women entering political science in Kazakhstan, which, nevertheless, has not resulted in employment parity. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Regarding human identification in armed conflicts, various complications can be observed. Usually, such difficulties can be social-related, which can include the lack of access to the relative's genetic material, or the unwillingness of administrative and judicial authorities to participate in the process of identification. In the case of genetics, the analysis allows identifying the individual from a blood sample, a part of an organ, or from skeletal remains, which is why it is considered a much more extensive and effective method when compared with fingerprint techniques or odontology. However, several factors can prevent this identification, such as considerably degraded genetic material. For successful identification, it is mandatory to have access to antemortem biological samples unequivocally attributed to the individual in question, using recombinant nuclear markers, as well as using biological samples from close relatives, whether parents or sons. Nevertheless, the problems associated with armed conflicts make this type of study very difficult. In this article, we focus on the main difficulties encountered when identifying an individual victim of an armed conflict, as well as on the possibilities that exist and on viable measures that could be required to improve the identification of these victims. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

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Passive online media use refers to the act of merely reading and observing political information on a users' feed. Alternatively, active use refers to the conscious decision to share information, comment, challenge, fact check, or engage in related activity. We argue that these types of social media use have fundamentally different relationships to offline political participation. We use original survey data from Malaysia and the Philippines to test two propositions: (1) active political use, such as online protest or resistance, substitutes for offline protest and (2) passive users who encounter critical information and do not engage in active use will participate in offline protest. Our results confirm these expectations. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]