The Impact of COVID-19 on Social Inequalities in German Higher Education. An Analysis of Dropout Intentions of Vulnerable Student Groups

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, contact, education, and employment opportunities have fundamentally changed worldwide. However, various studies have pointed out that not everyone is equally affected by the changed circumstances. This paper focuses on the impact of the pandemic on the study situation in German higher education and explores the question to what extent the pandemic has led to increasing or decreasing social inequalities. Building on social stratification research and Tinto's model of social and academic integration we focus on dropout intentions of traditionally disadvantaged student groups--students with disabilities, with children, from families with lower levels of education, and with a migrant background. Based on comparable data from a German-wide representative student survey 'Studying in Corona Times' (2020) and data from the '21st Social Survey' (2016) our analysis shows to what extent the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic has influenced students' dropout intentions in Germany and which vulnerable student groups are particularly affected. The results of our logistic regression analysis indicate that compared to 2016 social inequalities in dropout intention have increased significantly in all vulnerable student groups. In particular, students with disabilities and students with children have a higher risk of intending to drop out in 2020.