The Long Arm of Early Exclusionary School Discipline? A Multi-Model Analysis

In this analysis, we consider how a potentially important triggering event in the life course—exclusionary school discipline—may affect students’ high school outcomes. We extend the literature to focus on the long-term effects of exclusionary discipline that occurs in the early grades, when students are relatively young and when a significant share of exclusionary discipline first occurs. We further evaluate the potential, long-term effects of exclusionary discipline on different high school outcomes (non-completion, GED certification, high school diploma) in statistical models that account for observed and unobserved heterogeneity. Overall, we find robust and consistent evidence that very young children are not somehow more resilient or more protected from negative, long-term effects of suspension or expulsion in early elementary school. Moreover, previous research might underestimate the effects of (early) exclusionary discipline more generally by ignoring the independent effects on GED certification.